As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Friday 7/31/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 583 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/23/2020 and 07/30/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 53 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $438.88

1 Month avg volatility: $12.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $401.94 or 8.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 33.07%

Volume: 1,438,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,137,863 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/30/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 199 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $277.19

1 Month avg volatility: $6.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $293.31 or 5.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -8.22%

Volume: 1,080,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,801,302 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/12/2020 to 07/28/2020

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 449 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $3.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.84 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.20%

Volume: 9,739,600 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/24/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 460 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $19.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.33 or 6.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -29.85%

Volume: 7,208,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/30/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

7/30/20 close: $828.13

1 Month avg volatility: $15.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $858.86 or 3.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -5.81%

Volume: 49,556,900 shares. 3 month avg: 62,233,735 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/17/2020 to 07/29/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 507 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $34.92

1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.09 or 8.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.74%

Volume: 31,500 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 07/30/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 54 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $5.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.67 or 9.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 19.35%

Volume: 1,310,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/30/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 542 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $10.20

1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.30 or 10.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -45.51%

Volume: 9,979,400 shares. 3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 05/29/2020 to 07/30/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 101 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $197.90

1 Month avg volatility: $5.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $210.77 or 6.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 11.07%

Volume: 1,162,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,563,420 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/24/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 168 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $24.54

1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.44 or 8.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 35.43%

Volume: 10,518,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/30/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 136 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $45.53

1 Month avg volatility: $1.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.78 or 7.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -5.28%

Volume: 409,200 shares. 3 month avg: 906,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 06/23/2020 to 07/24/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 444 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $31.38

1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $29.15 or 7.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.59%

Volume: 359,300 shares. 3 month avg: 632,043 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/30/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 477 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $53.26

1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.17 or 7.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -34.26%

Volume: 2,506,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/28/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 3 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $16.37

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.96 or 14.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 216.63%

Volume: 2,016,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/30/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 52 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $65.94

1 Month avg volatility: $3.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $75.15 or 14.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 25.77%

Volume: 378,000 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 07/16/2020 to 07/30/2020

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 363 out of 578

7/30/20 close: $52.28

1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.49 or 6.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -20.16%

Volume: 905,800 shares. 3 month avg: 522,352 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 07/13/2020 to 07/20/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Thursday 7/30/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

What caught my eye first is the horizontal move at A. I drew a red trendline showing the move.

When I search for patterns, lines (underlying trends) are what I see first, as in this case.

Let's try this experiment. The drop from A to B, vertically, added to A will be how high the index rises over the next few days. Don't take that as gospel. It's just an experiment.

But there's some technical analysis behind it. Think of the trendline measure rule, but it's not an exact match. Or you can call this an inverted roof pattern where the height of the pattern, added to the top of it, gives you a target. That's the price I'm looking for.

Let's just see if price can reach that target: 10,640 on the Nasdaq. Because price falls twice as fast as it rises, I'll give it two days to make the trip. Deadline: Friday's close.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/29/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator today turned bearish as the vertical red line shows on the chart.

Notice that the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart has dived down for cover.

Of course, due to the way the indicator is constructed, the signal can disappear for up to a week, but is usually solid after 3 days. So we'll have to wait and see what happens, but as of today, the chart is bearish.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The above text says the readings deteriorated from a week ago. That's the first time in months, I think, where that's happened.

So we have a bearish CPI chart and this chart is bearish, too, or rather the signals are deteriorating. Does it mean the world is going to end as we know it?

Probably not. I'll take a guess here. The market will continue lower, maybe not fast, but it'll continue to show weakness. Unemployment will worsen. Earnings will likely be soft for some companies, but I'm seeing reports of strength there, surprising the markets. It reminds me of a company I know that supposedly had a slush fund set aside which they used too boost earnings when a quarter was soft. I don't know if that's true. I don't know if it was legal, but it sounds reasonable. I recall headquarters congratulating them on a fine quarter after they dipped into the slush.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 7/28/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Continental Air

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Continental Air (CAL) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 7/27/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I added labels to the two peaks at AB. These highlight a double top. It will confirm as a valid double top should the index close below C.

It hasn't done that yet. C is the lowest low between the two peaks, by the way.

I also drew the red trendline, starting from the current price backward, just to see where it would hit the index.

The index has bounced off that trendline plenty of times, suggesting it's a good support area. Will the index bounce off it again?

If it plunges through, then the index could drop to 9600, which is about the height of the double top expressed below the trendline.

If the index decides to rise, then a rise to 10,800 seems easy. Maybe not in one day but certainly doable.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 7/24/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 19 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 3.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 6 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/16/2020 and 07/23/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 487 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $77.54

1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.82 or 11.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.81%

Volume: 206,700 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 381 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $36.47

1 Month avg volatility: $1.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.66 or 10.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.66%

Volume: 79,900 shares. 3 month avg: 71,871 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/22/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 227 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $47.41

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.48 or 4.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -1.15%

Volume: 23,689,000 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 06/30/2020 to 07/23/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 558 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $16.52

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.35 or 13.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -53.45%

Volume: 222,900 shares. 3 month avg: 255,535 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/20/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 161 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $10.26

1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.75 or 14.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.19%

Volume: 355,300 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 569 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $4.17

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.74 or 13.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -62.93%

Volume: 6,724,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/23/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 326 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $35.96

1 Month avg volatility: $1.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.59 or 12.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.16%

Volume: 932,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 298 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $83.99

1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.98 or 4.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -7.92%

Volume: 2,360,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,571,354 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/23/2020 to 07/20/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 224 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $10.49

1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.13 or 12.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.91%

Volume: 1,263,200 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/22/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/01/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/31/2020 and a 38% chance by 11/30/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 533 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $27.40

1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.97 or 16.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -43.62%

Volume: 53,042,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/22/2020 to 07/22/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 406 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $41.89

1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.98 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -19.55%

Volume: 686,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 352 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $151.01

1 Month avg volatility: $3.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.33 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.37%

Volume: 963,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 209 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $14.08

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.84 or 8.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -5.19%

Volume: 5,307,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,164,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 07/16/2020 to 07/22/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 8 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $5.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.43 or 13.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 51.33%

Volume: 21,694,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,539,271 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 06/18/2020 to 07/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 268 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $387.62

1 Month avg volatility: $8.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $368.61 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.45%

Volume: 1,439,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 331 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $67.50

1 Month avg volatility: $1.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.99 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.36%

Volume: 50,700 shares. 3 month avg: 83,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/23/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

7/23/20 close: $10,461.42

1 Month avg volatility: $204.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11,137.38 or 6.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 16.59%

Volume: 0 shares. Could not calculate the 3 month avg volume.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/17/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 346 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $313.06

1 Month avg volatility: $7.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $297.22 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.99%

Volume: 691,400 shares. 3 month avg: 756,831 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 545 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $14.93

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.20 or 11.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.33%

Volume: 2,283,200 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 531 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $88.63

1 Month avg volatility: $3.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $79.46 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.65%

Volume: 577,400 shares. 3 month avg: 326,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 423 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $31.07

1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.89 or 10.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -28.06%

Volume: 2,841,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,234,920 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/20/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 130 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $122.35

1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $117.31 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -4.57%

Volume: 3,201,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,916,209 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/19/2020 to 07/21/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 400 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $34.61

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.45 or 9.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -22.40%

Volume: 1,010,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,461,508 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $5.48

1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.39 or 20.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -48.79%

Volume: 168,800 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 07/07/2020 to 07/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 132 out of 579

7/23/20 close: $112.93

1 Month avg volatility: $2.17. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $120.06 or 6.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.82%

Volume: 173,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 07/06/2020 to 07/17/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Thursday 7/23/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A down-sloping channel appears in red. The index has broken out upward from that channel. Is it significant?

Look at the orange channel. This one is up-sloping so maybe it doesn't count. Price pushed out the top of it, which is unusual when you think about it.

If I had to guess, I'd say the index will make it up to the blue line. That's the top of the channel. I don't know if it'll reach that or not, but that's the target I'd use. And I don't have a time limit on the move, either. The rule of thumb is that price drops twice as fast as it rises, so I'll give it 4 days to hit the target.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/22/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator still shows green, a bullish signal and the thin blue line is at 95, close to the top of the 0-100 range.

The indicator is going down and taking the index with it. How can I be so sure? Because the indicator doesn't hang around near the top of the scale for long and the index is hitting overhead resistance.

Having said that, the market continues to brush off the implications of covid 19. They see the US opening up and it's full steam ahead. Maybe September (weakest month of the year) will slow it down. Or an October surprise will cause a drop.

Until then, though, it's up, up, and away, much to my chagrin.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines have improved from a week ago. They don't show any concern about the markets turning down.

The prior chart is bullish and so is this one. Guess that means we're set for another weak of moving higher.

Not sure I believe that, though.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 7/21/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Brooks Automation

$ $ $

I show a another slider trading quiz featuring Brooks Automation stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 7/20/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

In a prior post, I think I remarked about the following two patterns before, a diamond top (the thing that looks like a diamond), and a head-and-shoulders top (L=left shoulder, H=Head, R=Right shoulder).

More recently is a double bottom appearing at AB. The stock confirmed when the index closed above the peak between the two valleys.

What are the implications of that?

The measure rule suggests that the index will rise up as tall as the pattern, starting from the top of the pattern.

You can look at the picture and see price hasn't risen much above the red line so far, so there's a lot of growth left.

Just realize that the measure rule is arbitrary. It's just a target. It's not a guarantee that the index will climb. It might fall instead.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 7/17/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 584 stocks searched, or 5.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 27 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/09/2020 and 07/16/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 218 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $18.04

1 Month avg volatility: $1.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.63 or 18.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.75%

Volume: 673,800 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/22/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 528 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $37.28

1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.98 or 11.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.97%

Volume: 1,739,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/10/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 374 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $11.41

1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.48 or 16.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -22.38%

Volume: 5,543,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 06/11/2020 to 07/14/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 32%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 437 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $47.09

1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.52 or 9.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -24.43%

Volume: 429,700 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 402 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $78.78

1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $72.10 or 8.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -16.16%

Volume: 195,000 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/14/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 370 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $67.68

1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.24 or 6.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.13%

Volume: 342,700 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 285 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $100.55

1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $95.87 or 4.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.11%

Volume: 555,700 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/15/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 323 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $146.18

1 Month avg volatility: $3.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $138.78 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.26%

Volume: 1,199,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,140,888 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/13/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 531 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $178.70

1 Month avg volatility: $8.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $159.51 or 10.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.14%

Volume: 34,993,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 313 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $38.58

1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.92 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -18.81%

Volume: 178,500 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 194 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $61.05

1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.65 or 5.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.56%

Volume: 5,108,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 471 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $60.04

1 Month avg volatility: $1.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.78 or 7.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.49%

Volume: 164,900 shares. 3 month avg: 293,374 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 504 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $91.86

1 Month avg volatility: $3.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $82.97 or 9.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.80%

Volume: 325,000 shares. 3 month avg: 230,622 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/14/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 40%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 347 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $63.14

1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.67 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.20%

Volume: 2,492,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,509,922 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 338 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $12.28

1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.17 or 9.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.19%

Volume: 248,200 shares. 3 month avg: 594,032 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Big W reversal pattern from 06/24/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 71% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 32% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 42% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 220 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $138.85

1 Month avg volatility: $3.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $131.21 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.17%

Volume: 1,835,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/14/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 519 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $7.05

1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.49 or 8.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -36.83%

Volume: 52,273,500 shares. 3 month avg: 74,714,158 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 40%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 262 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $134.45

1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $127.16 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.52%

Volume: 1,614,800 shares. 3 month avg: 973,146 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 322 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $153.08

1 Month avg volatility: $3.58. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.09 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.51%

Volume: 3,697,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 83 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $62.54

1 Month avg volatility: $2.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.72 or 6.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 18.56%

Volume: 4,221,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 05/28/2020 to 07/14/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 197 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $158.37

1 Month avg volatility: $4.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $148.03 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.08%

Volume: 87,900 shares. 3 month avg: 112,417 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 509 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $13.20

1 Month avg volatility: $0.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.94 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.00%

Volume: 3,545,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,715,435 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 267 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $422.21

1 Month avg volatility: $9.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $388.75 or 7.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.22%

Volume: 37,800 shares. 3 month avg: 31,329 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 557 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $9.95

1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.20 or 17.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -59.96%

Volume: 8,186,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/30/2020 to 07/10/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 458 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $56.25

1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.65 or 8.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.57%

Volume: 1,352,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 29% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 12 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $8.14

1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.86 or 8.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 57.45%

Volume: 751,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/11/2020 to 07/14/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/03/2020.

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 499 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $11.02

1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.85 or 7.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -32.27%

Volume: 88,400 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 06/22/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 442 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $25.91

1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.64 or 8.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.57%

Volume: 382,700 shares. 3 month avg: 446,563 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 506 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $34.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.55 or 10.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -36.62%

Volume: 11,375,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,071,869 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/25/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $14.04

1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.24 or 12.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -47.94%

Volume: 3,145,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 06/26/2020 to 07/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 40%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 308 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $53.51

1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.87 or 8.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.36%

Volume: 7,334,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,445 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/14/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 574 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $2.11

1 Month avg volatility: $0.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.62 or 23.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -69.33%

Volume: 16,214,100 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/14/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 211 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $193.50

1 Month avg volatility: $4.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $204.33 or 5.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.98%

Volume: 5,062,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 88 out of 579

7/16/20 close: $84.38

1 Month avg volatility: $2.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.74 or 6.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.90%

Volume: 785,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/16/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Thursday 7/16/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern outlined in red, do you know its name?

It's a symmetrical triangle. Price action is bounded by two converging trendlines. The top one slopes downward and the bottom one slopes upward. Price touches the trendlines at least five times. That's three touches of one trendline and two of the other. The touches need not alternate but often do.

Price breaks out upward just over half the time, so that's the way to bet. The upward direction also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/15/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator remains bullish, as shown by the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart.

As the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart shows, the indicator is again strong. It's not at the top of the scale, but it's close.

Of course, that means there's not much room for growth and all of that room to drop.

The index, as the chart shows, has reached overhead resistance setup by the prior peak in June. Both are near 360, using the CPI's axis numbers as a nearby reference.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement from this week over last.

Last week, we saw bearish divergence with a CPI that was heading down. The CPI pulled out of its dive before turning bearish and has recovered as I mentioned. The bearish divergence is still there on the blue line, but has disappeared on the more sensitive red line. That means the blue line will likely follow suit and continue higher.

Putting everything together and we see a bullish outlook emerge but I still feel covid 19 will force the indices lower. That hasn't happened, really, and I switched Tom's Targets (grid at page top) to expect an upward move.

NBC nightly news reports on a few cases where people have caught covid twice. The antibodies appear to last for three weeks to a few months. That means any notion of a herd immunity might be wrong. It also makes me wonder how good a vaccine will be, too. If natural immunity starts fading after 3 weeks, how long can an artificial immunity last?

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 7/14/20. Slider Trading Quiz! APCC

$ $ $

I show a another slider trading quiz featuring American Power Conversion Corp (APCC) stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 7/13/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew two internal trendlines. Internal means they cut through price, which these do. I wanted to see how the plunge at A mirrored the overshoot at B.

Cool, huh? Isn't that interesting how that works? I think it's a variation of the trendline measure rule except it applies here to a channel (the two nearly-parallel red lines).

My question now is, does the two moves outside the channel at C and D have any significance?

In other words, will we see the index rise above the top of the channel by the same amount?

Answer: Probably not. It's been my experience that as soon as you see a cycle forming, it stops working.

The pic on the lower left is a project that kept me busy to the last 2 weekends. Not sure what a vaction is, though. It's supposed to be a vacation.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 7/10/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 585 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 07/02/2020 and 07/09/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 470 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $25.09

1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.36 or 10.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.77%

Volume: 755,000 shares. 3 month avg: 464,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 471 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $33.97

1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.16 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -35.78%

Volume: 3,806,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 05/29/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 32%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 254 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $97.69

1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.28 or 5.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.67%

Volume: 819,000 shares. 3 month avg: 444,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/17/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 538 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $7.86

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.88 or 38.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -54.57%

Volume: 66,263,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 07/09/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 25 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $40.96

1 Month avg volatility: $2.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.34 or 11.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 42.62%

Volume: 726,700 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 135 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $49.41

1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.19 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.02%

Volume: 1,180,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 06/08/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 224 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $6.97

1 Month avg volatility: $0.41. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.18 or 17.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -7.25%

Volume: 787,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 180 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $46.70

1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.96 or 5.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.63%

Volume: 25,667,000 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/08/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 92 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $35.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $33.82 or 5.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.97%

Volume: 2,870,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,423,360 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 07/01/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 84 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $190.02

1 Month avg volatility: $7.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $212.22 or 11.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.53%

Volume: 448,100 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 368 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $69.44

1 Month avg volatility: $2.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $63.15 or 9.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.41%

Volume: 332,600 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/08/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 297 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $4.15

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.40 or 18.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.70%

Volume: 593,500 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 05/04/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 116 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $421.76

1 Month avg volatility: $14.25. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $457.05 or 8.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 12.57%

Volume: 255,300 shares. 3 month avg: 162,437 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 06/02/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (East)

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 296 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $40.19

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.42 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.30%

Volume: 3,781,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,155,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 06/22/2020 to 06/29/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 389 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $39.94

1 Month avg volatility: $1.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.59 or 9.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -23.30%

Volume: 1,246,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, descending continuation pattern from 06/05/2020 to 07/06/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 15%.

Pullbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 30% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 555 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $9.14

1 Month avg volatility: $0.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.67 or 16.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -59.16%

Volume: 1,756,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/06/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 91 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $247.96

1 Month avg volatility: $5.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $234.96 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 13.55%

Volume: 2,993,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,416,295 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 210 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $65.90

1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $69.29 or 5.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -4.71%

Volume: 1,708,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/28/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 313 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $339.96

1 Month avg volatility: $9.15. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $320.88 or 5.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.69%

Volume: 1,823,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,022,062 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 06/29/2020 to 07/06/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $1.65

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.29 or 21.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -56.35%

Volume: 165,400 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/13/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/13/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 209 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $24.26

1 Month avg volatility: $0.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.00 or 9.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.02%

Volume: 290,600 shares. 3 month avg: 452,812 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 06/16/2020 to 07/07/2020

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 205 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $43.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.79 or 5.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.13%

Volume: 563,200 shares. 3 month avg: 520,157 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/10/2020 to 07/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 357 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $51.33

1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.45 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -21.26%

Volume: 377,000 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 06/15/2020 to 07/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 513 out of 580

7/9/20 close: $3.20

1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.13 or 29.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -47.97%

Volume: 1,054,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 06/09/2020 to 07/09/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 06/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 09/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 12/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Thursday 7/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The head-and-shoulders bottom that appeared a week ago I show here as LS-Head-RS. The index made a nice run up after that pattern completed.

Another one formed on Monday, but it was a potential head-and-shoulders top. I show that as LHR on the chart.

I write 'potential' because the pattern never confirmed as valid (price never closed below the neckline).

Instead, a double bottom appeared at AB. This confirmed when the index closed above the top of the chart pattern. I show that at C, but it may be hard to see. It suggest price will continue moving up by, oh, 150 points.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/8/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator turned green, which is bullish, about a week ago and it's still bullish today.

However, look at the signal line, that thin blue thing near the bottom of the chart. It has turned down, hasn't it?

Combined with the index hitting overhead resistance setup by the early June peak, it could be the index will drop from here. So the chart is bullish but hinting of a downturn.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Usually this chart doesn't tell us anything we don't already know. Why? Because the two red and blue indicator lines hug price movement. When the index burps, so do the two lines.

The above text says the more sensitive red line has shown improvement from a week ago.

Now look at A, the brown or orange lines. They show bearish divergence. In other words, the index has a higher peak and the indicators show lower peaks. That's not good.

This chart, combined with the prior one suggests the index is going down. Maybe not hard and fast, but there's weakness underlying the market. That's my take, anyway.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 7/7/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider trading quiz featuring Apache stock. It's an actual trade of mine.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 7/6/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale, but there's not much to write about this chart.

I drew two trendlines, the top one along the peaks. It slopes upward but because price only touches it two times, it's not as reliable as other trendlines with more touches.

It may act as overhead resistance.

Along the bottom, I drew another trendline. With this one, I had to make a decision as to whether to draw the line so it cut through price at the late June bottom or just touched it like the prior two touches.

I consider the late June dip as still resting on support. The index has climbed and looks to continue climbing. That's the direction I predicted in Tom's Targets at the top of this page for the next 2 weeks, but with covid spiking across the south and west, traders and investors could freak and send the index lower. So who knows what's going to happen.

The two trendlines, taken together, form a pattern called a rising wedge.

Usually, I like to see at least five trendline touches (3 on one trendline and 2 on the other), so this one with 4 touches isn't ideal. The breakout is downward 60% of the time. Maybe it has already broken out downward with the late June drop.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 7/3/20. Heavy Lifting: Supporting ThePatternSite.com

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code (and I think it only works for customers in the US).

   So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

Thursday 7/2/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's a very pretty looking head-and-shoulders bottom on the chart. The left shoulder (LS), head, and right shoulder (RS) are all well defined and symmetrical about the head.

The down-sloping neckline at A shows where the buy signal is. The index climbed to the target without much of a pause along the way.

Today, the index hit overhead resistance shown by the green line and turned lower.

Will the index have enough selling pressure to keep the index down?

This page (Holiday.html) says the index closes higher 53.6% of the time the day before a holiday (which Thursday is). On Monday, expect the index to close lower 57.2% of the time.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 7/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast July Update

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for July, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 June 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Here's how they rank the industries, but only those in the plus column appear. Year to date returns. The rank is how they listed a month ago.

-- Thomas Bulkowski