As of 03/13/2025
Indus: 40,814 -537.36 -1.3%
Trans: 14,398 -275.47 -1.9%
Utils: 990 +3.46 +0.4%
Nasdaq: 17,303 -345.44 -2.0%
S&P 500: 5,522 -77.78 -1.4%
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YTD
-4.1%
-9.4%
+0.8%
-10.4%
-6.1%
|
 40,000 or 43,500 by 04/01/202514,400 or 16,400 by 04/01/2025 1,050 or 970 by 03/15/202516,200 or 19,000 by 04/01/20255,300 or 5,900 by 04/01/2025 |
As of 03/13/2025
Indus: 40,814 -537.36 -1.3%
Trans: 14,398 -275.47 -1.9%
Utils: 990 +3.46 +0.4%
Nasdaq: 17,303 -345.44 -2.0%
S&P 500: 5,522 -77.78 -1.4%
|
YTD
-4.1%
-9.4%
+0.8%
-10.4%
-6.1%
| |
|
40,000 or 43,500 by 04/01/202514,400 or 16,400 by 04/01/20251,050 or 970 by 03/15/202516,200 or 19,000 by 04/01/20255,300 or 5,900 by 04/01/2025 | ||
Released 9/30/2020.
Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of September 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
The bullish signal which happened 3 days ago is still in force. Notice that the index is climbing, which suggests the signal won't fade away, but a big move in the index could change that.
I always issue this warning nearly every time I get a signal change: the signal can change for up to a week, but is usually stable after three days.
The Dow has climbed back to the prediction (the red line) and has moved horizontally (more of less) in the circled region. Going into the end of the year, look for the index to climb.
The forecast for the index peaked in March, right when Covid-19 was at its worst. The forecast has dropped since then and is supposed to end the year near its low.
I drew a blue line to show how the peak in the forecast matches with the index. If the forecast is right, the index should continue lower, about 2,200 points.
The forecast for the index remains flat for the year. Of course, the index has bounced around a lot this year. It is supposed to move horizontally from here on out to year's end.
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