As of 04/19/2024   Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%     Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%     Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%     Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%     S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%	YTD  +0.8%   -5.1%   -0.7%    +1.8%    +4.1%	Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/1/24

As of 04/19/2024   Indus: 37,986 +211.02 +0.6%     Trans: 15,084 +136.79 +0.9%     Utils: 876 +15.31 +1.8%     Nasdaq: 15,282 -319.49 -2.0%     S&P 500: 4,967 -43.89 -0.9%	YTD  +0.8%   -5.1%   -0.7%    +1.8%    +4.1%
Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024     39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/2024   16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024   885 or 850 by 05/01/2024   16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024   5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 4/1/24

Monday 11/30/20. S&P Broadening Pattern

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

In the last month or two, two people have asked about the broadening pattern which appears in the indices. I'm guessing they saw it on some other website.

I show a chart of the S&P 500 index on the weekly scale. There's not much to say about it, though.

Price follows two trendlines. The top trendline slopes upward. The bottom one slopes downward. Price crosses the pattern from top to bottom plenty of times, filling the whitespace with price movement.

This is a nice looking broadening top.

However, a partial decline appears at A. In broadening tops, a partial decline correctly predicts an immediate and upward breakout 72% of the time. We might see an upward breakout as soon as Monday. Or not.

My guess? Yes, we'll see an upward breakout if not on Monday, then sometime this week.

It is possible that the growing Covid-19 pandemic will cause the market to pay more attention to the near term suffering that's going on. That might cause a dip. I think we're 2 to 3 weeks away before the infection rates and hospitalizations really move up. That's due to the holiday travel, of course. And Christmas is around the corner, prolonging another wave.

So I'm looking for the market to move higher marginally but take a nice dive. I plan to buy the dip if that happens.

After the pandemic is over, I think we'll be hitting new highs.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AEO, ACGL, ASH, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BKH, BAH, CNP, CMTL, CROX, DTE, DUK, RE, FDS, FICO, FDX, FLIR, FRD, GPS, HL, HON, INTC, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LNC, LMT, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, ^IXIC, NFG, NKE, OXY, OMI, PTEN, PNW, PINC, RJF, RLI, ROK, SMG, SO, SCCO, TDOC, TXT, TMO, TZOO, VFC, WRB, ITA, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IGV, SLV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWY, THD, QLD, PBE, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, MXI, XLF, GLD, XAR, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 11/27/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 9 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ASH, BCPC, BAX, HL, OMI, PNW, SO, TDOC, WRB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 4.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 11/26/19. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Thursday is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

   So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

2. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, ALKS, ANTM, APOG, ATR, ASH, ADP, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BBY, BKH, BBW, CBT, CALM, CPB, CE, CVX, CMTL, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CMI, RE, EVH, FICO, FDX, FLIR, FTNT, FRD, GME, GPS, GD, GNW, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HL, HELE, HOV, ITW, ILMN, INOV, INTC, LANC, LEG, LXU, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MDC, MSFT, NFG, NXGN, NKE, JWN, OMI, PNW, REV, CRM, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SXI, TGT, TDOC, TXN, TXT, TREX, VRSN, V, WRB, WMT, IYM, FDN, FXL, IHF, EWG, EWM, EWL, THD. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

Wednesday 11/25/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I'm bullish. I've been cutting one position to capture capital losses to use against my winnings. Then I've been using the capital to buy more stocks. The market is looking beyond the pandemic and seeing an economic recovery.

This chart doesn't give me the same kind of enthusiasm. Yes, it's still bullish, but the index is looking tired to me, like it wants to retrace. The CPI tried to signal that retrace with the recent dip, but the index ignored it. That's a sign of strength but notice that the index didn't shoot higher. It went sideways for the last week or two.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines made bullish progress this week compared to a week ago. The red line, looking from the left to the right on the chart, has made a nice move higher. In late May, early June, it got a bit frothy leading to the June peak. A retrace in the index calmed it down.

I drew two red circles on the chart. Notice that the slopes are not exact, but similar. That worries me. It suggests the index will move horizontally for a few weeks. That's if the index behaves like it did in June to July.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 236 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AYI, ALK, AA, ADS, AYX, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMGN, AON, APA, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ATO, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BZH, BIO, BKH, BA, BKNG, CBT, CE, CLS, CF, CVX, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CTS, CW, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DRQ, DUK, EXP, EIX, EMR, EIGI, EOG, EPAM, EFX, RE, EXC, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FLIR, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FRD, IT, GE, GL, GS, EVRG, THG, HSC, HQY, HL, HP, HON, DHI, JBHT, IDA, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LAWS, LNC, L, LXU, MHO, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, OXY, OGE, OMC, OMI, OXM, PATK, PTEN, PNW, POR, PPG, PPL, PFG, PGR, PRU, PHM, RL, RJF, RGS, RGA, ROST, RES, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SRE, NOW, SLGN, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SR, STMP, SXI, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TPX, TXT, TJX, TOL, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VC, VMC, WRB, WAT, WSO, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IAT, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLI, XLB, XAR, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 11/24/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Human Genome Science: HGSI stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, ACIW, AYI, AFL, ALB, AA, AYX, AMED, AMWD, AMN, APA, APOG, ATR, ARW, AGO, BAX, BZH, BIO, BIIB, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CLS, CF, CRL, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, COTY, CR, CRH, CSGS, DHR, DECK, DVN, DOV, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EVH, FDS, FDX, FISV, FLS, FRD, GPS, GE, GNW, GS, EVRG, GES, HTLD, HL, HP, HNI, HON, DHI, INCY, INFN, TILE, IPG, IPI, JNJ, KALU, K, LH, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MHO, M, MRO, MAS, MDCA, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, NOV, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NJR, NEU, NEE, NI, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OLN, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, POL, POR, PFG, PGR, QCOM, RJF, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, RES, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SCCO, SWN, SNPS, TGT, TMO, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, VC, VMC, WSO, WERN, WLK, WSM, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, PPA, PEJ, IXC, XLE, XLF, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 11/23/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

At AB, there's a double bottom. It's not a pretty pattern (because the bottoms are uneven in price), but it's there nonetheless.

The pattern confirms at C when the index closes above the red line. That means the double bottom becomes a valid chart pattern. However, the chart shows that the index didn't shoot higher. Rather, it meandered up to sideways and is struggling to find its way.

I don't show a longer-term chart (same daily scale but more history). What you see on that longer chart is the current peak matching the height of the February peak. That's a sign of overhead resistance. It's an example of a 2B chart pattern.

That pattern suggests the index will drop some going forward. I don't expect a big plunge, but it'll probably be covid-news driven. Maybe politics will play a role. So I'm looking for a short-term drop followed by a recovery. If the drop lasts long enough, the approval of the vaccine for emergency use will shoot the market upward. So you can position yourself now because it's going to come.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

I found 79 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMZN, AMED, ABC, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, AAPL, ADM, BAX, BIO, BOOT, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CNC, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CMCO, CMTL, CREE, DECK, D, DOV, EPAM, EL, RE, EXC, FEYE, FE, FLIR, FMC, FRD, GPRO, HE, HSII, HD, DHI, IDXX, INFN, IPI, JCOM, KELYA, KMT, LEG, RAMP, LXU, MAS, MDC, MCO, MLI, NFG, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, PKG, PATK, PGR, QCOM, DGX, ROK, ROST, SMG, SCCO, SWN, STMP, SNPS, TEVA, TMO, TREX, UPS, VRSN, WRB, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, IHI, EWA, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, THD, PXJ, XLY, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 11/20/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 171 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AMD, AFL, ALB, AMED, AEP, AMWD, ABC, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, BMI, BLL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BKH, CDNS, CAL, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHD, CINF, CTXS, CMCO, CMTL, ED, COTY, CREE, CROX, CCK, CTS, DECK, DVN, DDS, ^DJU, D, EMN, EIX, EFX, EL, RE, EVH, EXC, FAST, FIS, FISV, FORM, FRD, GPS, IT, GIS, GPN, EVRG, HLIT, HE, HSII, HSIC, HSY, DHI, JBHT, IDXX, INTU, IVC, KALU, KMT, KLAC, LB, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MGEE, MU, MCO, MLI, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NCR, NI, NWPX, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, PGR, RHI, ROK, RCKY, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, SWX, SXI, SNPS, TPX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, TREX, UPS, VLO, VRSN, WRB, WSO, WSM, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, ITB, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, FXI, SOXX, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, TUR, QLD, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, GLD, XHB, XRT, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 11/19/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish Rect Breakout

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart shows a rectangle top chart pattern as the two parallel red lines. It's a nice rectangle, too, with plenty of touches on the top and bottom. It has broken out downward when the index closed below the bottom trendline.

How far will the index drop?

One answer to that is measured in probabilities. Take the height of the pattern and subtract it from the bottom trendline. That's the target but it'll only be hit 54% of the time. It's almost there now...

I show my target in green. It begins from a knot at A. Research tells there a good chance of it turning there. But that really applies to the daily charts and stocks, not the indices.

With things so volatile at the open intraday, who knows what will happen.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 208 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, AKAM, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, AMWD, ANTM, AMAT, ASH, AIZ, ADP, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BA, BG, CBT, COG, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNC, CRL, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLNE, CNA, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CRH, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, DDS, DFS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EIGI, EL, RE, EVH, EXC, XOM, FFG, FTNT, GPS, IT, GPN, GL, GPRO, GES, THG, HSC, HTLD, HSII, HOLX, DHI, IDXX, ITW, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, KALU, K, KLIC, LB, LHX, LZB, LH, LNC, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MANH, MAN, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MLI, MYGN, NFG, CNR, NI, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PLXS, POL, PPG, PGR, KWR, RHI, ROK, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SWX, SWN, SXI, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, RIG, TG, TREX, UPS, VLO, VRSN, WRB, WMB, WWW, IYM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHI, IHE, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWT, EWU, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLB, SPY, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 11/18/20. Indicators Bullish But...

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Over the past week, the index has continued to move higher, but it seems to be coasting upward now.

The indicator has moved sideways for most of the month. What does this mean?

Let's look at May and June (the blue circle on the left) when the index moved sideways after reaching or nearing its ceiling. Then it tumbled, dropping to the bottom of the scale. A bearish signal occurred near A which saw the index drop to B. That decline was only a few days long and it pales in comparison to the swift decline in the CPI (from 100 to 0).

So I expect a similar retrace. Not a big decline, just a week's worth of weakness which will take it to 360 or above (on the right scale, on this chart), or about 3400 on the index (left scale). After that, I expect a continued rise.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red and blue indicator lines improved from a week ago. They seem oblivious to the coming decline. That's no surprise because these two show weakness only after it happens.

They remain bullish. I'm skeptical. I think the market will remain bullish but Covid-19 news is not good and it's going to get very bad. Of course, the market is looking past it, to a recovery next year. Between now and then, I expect some bumps along the way.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 100 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ALL, AMED, AEE, APOG, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, EPAY, COG, CDNS, CALM, CX, CRL, CHD, CLNE, CMTL, CSOD, COST, CROX, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, EIX, EPAM, FICO, FLIR, GE, GS, GES, HOLX, HD, DHI, HURC, IDXX, ITGR, IPG, IPI, JKHY, KSS, LB, LAMR, LAWS, RAMP, LXU, MRTN, MAS, MCO, NFG, NEU, NVDA, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PINC, PGR, RL, RJF, RGA, ROK, RES, SCHW, SMG, SWN, SR, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TMO, TREX, UPS, VRSN, WMB, WWW, IAI, IYK, IHI, IYZ, EWQ, EWS, EWL, DBA, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 11/17/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Insteel Industries (IIIN) (An actual trade).

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Here's a symbol list of 403 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AEL, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ARW, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BKH, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CE, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CVX, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CSGS, CMI, CW, DVN, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EXC, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FE, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GD, GE, GPN, GL, GS, EVRG, GFF, GES, THG, HSC, HE, HAYN, HL, HP, HSY, HNI, HON, ILMN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LH, LDOS, LLY, LNC, LMT, L, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MUR, MYL, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NKE, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PDLI, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POL, PINC, PFG, PRU, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, RHI, ROG, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TJX, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, WRB, WU, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 11/16/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This chart shows an Adam & Eve double bottom at AB. Notice how price made a strong move higher after the pattern completed. That's what's supposed to happen.

More recent is the pattern at C. What's it called?

It has the shape of a megaphone so some might call it that. But the common name for it is a broadening top. Look for two trendlines which diverge. The top trendline slopes upward and the bottom one slopes downward. The top in broadening top means it appears in an uptrend.

New research says broadening tops breakout upward 60% of the time.

The knot at D could be what I call a partial decline. A partial decline appears after the pattern obeys all of the identification guidelines (which this one does). Price bounces off the top trendline, drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before heading back up and soaring out the top of the chart pattern.

For these patterns, a partial decline means an immediate upward breakout 72% of the time. That means price will rise to the top of the pattern and breakout then. It's not a guarantee, of course, so keep that in mind.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

I found 79 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 229 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ALRM, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, AWI, ARW, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CLS, CNC, CENX, CF, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CSGS, CW, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, EIX, EMR, EOG, EFX, EXC, EZPW, FICO, FIS, FISV, FMC, FORM, IT, GD, GPN, GS, EVRG, GFF, GES, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSY, HNI, ILMN, INOV, IPAR, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LH, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LLY, LMT, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MUR, MYL, ^IXIC, NTAP, NKE, JWN, OXY, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PICO, PLXS, POL, PFG, PRU, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SEIC, SO, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, V, WSO, WU, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IHE, DDM, FTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 11/13/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 275 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AFL, APD, ALRM, AA, ALKS, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BMY, BBW, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CNC, CENX, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CSGS, CW, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, EXP, EBAY, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EL, EXC, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FOE, FIS, FE, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, FMC, GPS, GPN, GS, GPRO, GES, HSC, HAYN, HL, HELE, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, ITW, ILMN, INFN, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LH, LEG, LEN, LLY, LMT, M, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, ^IXIC, CNR, NTAP, NKE, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PICO, PLXS, POL, PFG, PRU, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, LUV, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, V, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, ITA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 79 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is very bullish! High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 85 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (8) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 11/12/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

One week ago, I urged caution because of two ascending and inverted scallops appearing on the Nasdaq. I show them in red, cleverly labeled A.

The index moved sideways for a day and a half, perked up on Monday and then tumbled within minutes of the open. Recently, at B, it formed a symmetrical triangle.

The triangle led to a move higher at the open on Wednesday but leveled off for most of the session, hitting overhead resistance at 11,800.

The only thing I know for certain is that I don't know what's going to happen next. I'll leave it up to the reader of this blog to decide. Maybe the futures before the open will provide direction, but even they have been acting unusual.

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Here's a symbol list of 304 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AFL, AA, ALKS, DOX, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIO, BA, BKNG, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BMY, BRKS, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CNC, CENX, CF, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CSGS, CW, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EXP, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EXC, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FFG, FOE, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FRD, GPS, GPN, GS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSII, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, HON, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KMB, LEG, LLY, LMT, LXU, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYL, ^IXIC, NTAP, NKE, NUS, OXY, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PICO, PNW, PLXS, POL, PFG, PG, PRU, QCOM, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SEE, SEIC, NOW, LUV, SWX, SWN, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, V, WU, WEX, WMB, ITA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 11/11/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A bullish signal is clear by the vertical green bar. However, look at the thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart. It has peaked below 100.

It think that's an indication of it heading lower. Coupled with the index peaking and heading down today, it looks like it's time for a retrace. The last week was all uphill, so it's time for a give back.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement from a week ago. That's the good news.

What's the bad news? I don't see any in this chart. These two indicators follow the price movement closely and rarely tell anything useful (in my opinion anyway).

I don't see any divergence either.

The prior chart is bullish but warning of a downturn. This chart is neutral. That downturn (CPI chart) is a weak signal, formed by today's drop and supported by the indicator not reaching 100, but peaking below that (at like 84). The index could continue higher, but I think the index is tired and a retrace will happen.

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Here's a symbol list of 264 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, AMZN, AMED, AEL, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, APA, AAPL, ADM, ARW, ADSK, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, CMCO, CMTL, COP, CLR, GLW, CR, CREE, CSGS, CW, DHR, DDS, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EXC, EZPW, FB, FICO, FIS, FLIR, FMC, FTNT, GME, GPN, GS, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HL, HSY, HNI, JBHT, ILMN, INFN, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JNJ, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LEG, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRN, MRK, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MUR, MYL, MYGN, NTAP, NKE, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PCG, PICO, PNW, PLXS, POL, PFG, PRU, RGA, REV, RNG, ROST, RES, CRM, SEIC, NOW, SCCO, LUV, SWN, STMP, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TJX, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, V, WU, WEX, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IAI, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 11/10/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Frontier Airlines stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 424 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AYX, DOX, AMED, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AXS, BBBY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CVX, CHS, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, ED, COP, CLR, GLW, COST, CR, CREE, CSGS, CW, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EL, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FAST, FFG, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, EVRG, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HON, HOV, HURC, IDA, IEX, IDXX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, IVC, JCOM, JBLU, KALU, K, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, LB, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEG, LNC, L, LXU, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MAS, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NXGN, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PRFT, PCG, PICO, PNW, PLXS, POL, POR, PPG, PINC, PFG, PG, PRU, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RJF, RGS, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, STMP, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TER, TXN, TXT, TKR, TJX, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VRSN, V, VC, WRB, WMT, WSO, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, QLD, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 11/9/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Two patterns appear on the chart, which I've highlighted in red. They are both broadening patterns. The first one, in September, is a broadening bottom.

It appears after a short-term downtrend from the peak in August. Price touches each trendline at least twice with at least five or more touches, total. The touch count is important for correct identification.

This pattern leads to a strong move higher.

The more recent broadening pattern is a broadening top. It appears in an upward price trend. It's not as good a pattern as the prior one because of the touch count.

As the pattern develops, price might touch the top trendline for a third time, giving the pattern the needed five trendline touches.

Even though it falls short of five touches, the broadening appearance is clear, so I think it's a valid pattern.

A look at the stats says broadening tops breakout upward 60% of the time, so that's the way to bet.

However, the last four days, where price attempted to reach the top trendline and fell short, suggests weakness. Lots of things can happen to sway the utilities. Price might push higher. It might continue to move sideways before making its move. Or price could tumble. We're already seeing weakness.

As with many chart patterns, we won't know the breakout direction until it happens.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 159 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADTN, AKAM, ALRM, AYX, AEL, AXP, AMWD, AMN, APOG, ATR, AXS, BMI, BZH, BMRN, BKH, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CDNS, CX, CVX, CHS, CLNE, CLX, CMTL, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CSOD, COTY, DECK, EXP, EOG, EPAM, EQT, FE, FLEX, FTNT, GPRO, GES, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HOV, HURC, IDA, INFN, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, IPI, INTU, IVC, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, LB, LAWS, LEG, RAMP, LMT, MDCA, MS, MOS, MLI, MYL, NBR, CNR, NJR, NWL, NKE, NOC, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PICO, PINC, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, DGX, RL, RJF, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROST, SAIC, SRE, SKX, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, TXN, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VRSN, VRTX, V, WRB, IYK, IYC, ICF, IAT, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWM, EWS, EWL, DBA, PJP, MXI, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 11/6/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, APD, AKAM, ALB, ALL, AMZN, AMED, AMWD, APH, AON, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, AXS, BSET, BAX, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BRKS, BG, CDNS, CAL, CLNE, CL, CAG, CSOD, COTY, CCRN, DHR, DECK, D, EBAY, EMR, EPAM, FB, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HL, HOV, NSP, TILE, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LNC, LMT, LXU, MTSI, M, MRO, MA, MTRX, MDT, MU, MSFT, MLI, MYGN, ^IXIC, NEE, NKE, NOC, NUS, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, PANW, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PINC, PGR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, ROG, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SNPS, TECH, TPX, TER, TEVA, TXN, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VEEV, VRSN, V, WAT, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, UNG, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 4 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 0.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 2 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 11/5/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Caution!

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At EA, the index formed an Eve & Adam double bottom. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern (when price closed above the peak between the two bottoms) and that led to a large gain.

More recent than that pattern, an ascending and inverted scallop appears at B and C. Do you notice anything peculiar about these two patterns?

Answer: Yes. C is larger than B. I've noticed this both ways: in a series of scallops in an uptrend, most get narrower the higher up the price trend they appear. In a few instances, they get larger (taller, wider). And this is an example. If we see a third inverted and ascending scallop that is wider than or taller than C, then it probably marks the end of the uptrend. No guarantees, of course.

Even the appearance of a third scallop, regardless of the size, sings a note of caution. That's especially true if the start and end of the pattern appear near the same price (so it doesn't really look like a scallop).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, ACGL, AGO, AVY, AXS, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BMY, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CDNS, CPB, CX, CRL, CHS, ED, CSOD, COTY, DHR, EBAY, EQT, FICO, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLIR, FTNT, FDP, IT, GPN, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HOLX, DHI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, IPI, INTU, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, LHX, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LMT, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MRO, MA, MDC, MRK, MSFT, MOS, MYGN, NXGN, JWN, NOC, OMC, OMI, PKG, PDLI, PFE, PNW, PINC, PGR, PHM, DGX, REV, RHI, ROG, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SAIC, TPX, TKR, TOL, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, V, WERN, WEX, IYC, ITB, IHI, IHE, QTEC, FXI, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, PPA, PJP, IXN, SSO, XLV, SPY, XLK, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 11/4/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

With today's (Tuesday's) gain, the indicator flipped from bearish to bullish. Although the signal appears to have flipped on Monday, it really changed on Tuesday and backdated, if you will, to Monday.

In other words, the signal can change for up to a week. We see that it's bullish now and the index is rising.

Let's check what the next chart says.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The more sensitive red line shows no change from a week ago, which is puzzling. The blue line, however, shows a minor move higher. That's a plus.

Taken together, the two charts are turning bullish. The prior chart shows the thin blue indicator line spiking higher, which changed Monday's view from bearish to bullish. This chart is bullish too, but very mildly.

My view is that the upswing will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADTN, AES, ATSG, AYX, DOX, AEL, AXP, ABC, AMN, APH, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADP, AVY, AXS, BAX, BECN, BBY, BAH, BMY, BBW, BG, CBT, CACI, CX, CNC, CHS, CLX, CNA, COP, CLGX, CR, CRH, CTS, CMI, DECK, DDS, DFS, DOV, EQT, RE, XOM, FAST, FOE, FLIR, FLS, FCX, FRD, IT, GNW, GL, GPRO, GFF, HLIT, HE, HQY, HL, HSIC, HOV, ITW, INFN, TILE, IPG, IVC, JCOM, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LH, LANC, LNC, M, MAN, MTRX, MGEE, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NXGN, OGE, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PDCO, PDLI, PNW, PPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, KWR, RMBS, RJF, REV, RLI, ROK, SAIA, SAIC, SO, SWX, SWN, SXI, SCS, TECH, TXT, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VRSN, IYM, IAI, DDM, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PPA, PXJ, PHO, IEV, MXI, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 11/3/20. Recent Research

$ $ $

I've been doing research on new patterns and testing old ones. Here's a link to testing old patterns. These are short patterns, two to four days long. I wanted to know how they worked as reversal patterns. It you're interested in short term bearish patterns, take a look.

I completed my analysis of the bearish Carl V chart pattern (I mentioned the bullish version on 10/13/20). It's a new chart pattern, founded by Carl Vanhaesendonck. I include his trading rules and tested how well the pattern worked, using those rules.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AEL, AIG, ABC, AAPL, ADM, BMI, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, BG, CACI, CX, CF, CNA, CMCO, CONN, CLR, CLGX, COST, CRH, CMI, DFS, DOV, EMR, EIGI, FIS, FRD, GME, GFF, HSC, HE, HL, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, INFN, NSP, IIIN, INTC, TILE, IPI, ISRG, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, LLY, L, MANH, MDCA, MU, MOS, NEE, NKE, PFE, PPG, PFG, PGR, PRU, RGA, RHI, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SMTC, LUV, SRDX, SNPS, TXT, TKR, TREX, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, VMC, WLK, WMB, WSM, ZBRA, IYK, ITB, IGE, EWK, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWY, EWT, PBE, IXC, GLD, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 11/2/20. 2020 Market Forecast October Update

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for November, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 October 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ALK, AA, DOX, AEO, AEP, AEL, AIG, ANIK, APA, AAPL, AXS, BMI, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CX, CNC, CNP, CVX, CIEN, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CLR, CCRN, DVN, DFS, EBAY, EOG, EZPW, FLIR, FMC, FDP, FRD, GME, HSC, HNI, HON, ILMN, INOV, TILE, ISRG, IVC, JBLU, LAMR, LEG, LNC, MANH, MDCA, ^IXIC, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NWPX, NUS, PTEN, PICO, PLXS, PFG, PRU, RGA, RHI, ROG, ROST, SEE, SWX, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TEVA, TKR, RIG, SLCA, VLO, VEEV, WLK, WMB, WSM, IYE, IEZ, FTEC, IGE, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, IXN, XLE, XLF, XLK, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

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