As of 12/20/2024   Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%     Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%     Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%     Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%     S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%	YTD  +13.7%   0.0%    +11.9%    +30.4%    +24.3%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/20/2024   Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%     Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%     Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%     Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%     S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%	YTD  +13.7%   0.0%    +11.9%    +30.4%    +24.3%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Bulkowski on Small Pattern Performance

Updated on November 2024 with target exit information (still under construction, so the rank column is missing).

This article compares the performance of small chart patterns. I don't have a definition of what a "small" chart pattern is, but I include those that are a few bars wide. The longest, is the NR7, which is seven bars long.

• Target exit performance in stocks  
• Target exit performance in ETFs  
• Target exit performance in cryptocurrency  
• Upward breakouts, bull markets
• Downward breakouts, bull markets
• See Also.

Small Patterns: Target Exit Performance in Stocks

Tables 1, 2, and 3 shows metrics related to small price patterns based on how well they reach a price target. The target is twice the height of the pattern added to the top of the pattern. A stop loss order placed a penny below the bottom of the pattern represents a sell signal. Commission were $0.

Terms

See the individual pattern for more details.

Table 1 shows the small pattern performance in stocks.

Notes: * Uses a one-bar delay on entry to be comparable.

Small Patterns: Target Exit Performance in ETFs

Table 2 shows the small pattern performance in exchange traded funds.

Notes: * Uses a one-bar delay on entry to be comparable.

Small Patterns: Target Exit Performance in Cryptocurrency

Table 3 shows the small pattern performance in cryptocurrency.

Small Patterns: Upward Breakout Performance

Table 4 shows the performance of small chart patterns based on the average gain.

In the tests of each pattern, I used a 7% gain for the profit exit and a 7% drop as the loss exit. In other words, after entering a trade, I set a profit target of 7% above the entry price. If the stock climbed 7%, the stock was sold for a 7% gain less $20 round trip commissions ($10 each way).

If the stock broke out upward but then dropped, the position was sold if the stock dropped 7% from the buy price. Averaging the results for all trades using the pattern gave the average gain, which I show.

The percent wins column is the percentage of times the chart pattern won.

The hold time is the duration of the trade, in calendar days.

The rank is a number for 1 (best), sorted by the average gain.

As the table shows, small patterns are not huge winners. Each trade began with $10,000, so they won $680 or lost $720 (it should be $700 each except for commissions and slippage).

Trades could make more or lose more if the stock gapped higher or lower.

Notice that the average gain is tiny -- $132 -- compared to $700 (a 7% gain).

Small Patterns: Downward Breakout Performance

Table 5 uses the same method as Table 4 except that the patterns listed had downward breakouts. That is, all trades began with $10,000. All shorted the stock and looked for price to drop 7% in a bull market. If it did not, a stop placed 7% above the entry price closed out the trade for a loss.

Commissions were $10 per trade or $20 round trip.

In this case, the average gain column actually shows a loss on every pattern! In other words, none of the chart patterns made money by shorting the stock.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• A daily list of small chart patterns found.
• How did I test small patterns in stocks, ETFs, and crypto currency?
• Rank of other chart patterns
• Visit the visual chart pattern index to hunt for other chart patterns.
• The alphabetical chart pattern index covers more topics than the visual index.
• What do you know about event patterns?
• If you prefer candlesticks, then visit over 100 of them in the alphabetical index.
• Click to view the visual candlestick index to make identification easier.