As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024

Bulkowski's 2024 Forecast

Below is the updated forecast for 2024 as of the close on March 28, 2024. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 4
chart pattern indicator

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.

The index continues to rise at a steady clip. The CPI is nervous, though. It changes from bearish (when we have a big down day) to neutral (white bar) to bullish (green vertical bar). Big moves can erase a signal for up to 7 days, so that's why you don't see a bearish red bar on the far right of the chart. The CPI line (bottom of chart) looks to be at or near the top of the scale (100).

The next chart looks at the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The forecast is in red. It shows the index moving lower going into May. However, the index diverged from the forecast back in January. It looks to be tied with the forecasted close for the year.

The next chart looks at the Nasdaq forecast.
3 / 4
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq. Same deal, here, as with the Nasdaq (prior chart). The index took off while the forecast slumped. After May, the forecast makes a big recovery. Maybe that will boost the index even higher.

The S&P 500 forecast for 2024 is next.
4 / 4
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale for 2024

Notice that the index has already beat the forecast for the yearly close. All of these charts show the indices to be overheating and ripe for a retrace. So trade cautiously.

The end.

See Also

 
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