Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 06/18/2024
  Indus: 38,835 +56.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,898 -35.14 -0.2%  
  Utils: 909 -0.27 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,862 +5.21 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,487 +13.80 +0.3%  
YTD
 +3.0%  
-6.3%  
 +3.0%  
 +19.0%  
 +15.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024
As of 06/18/2024
  Indus: 38,835 +56.76 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,898 -35.14 -0.2%  
  Utils: 909 -0.27 0.0%  
  Nasdaq: 17,862 +5.21 +0.0%  
  S&P 500: 5,487 +13.80 +0.3%  
YTD
 +3.0%  
-6.3%  
 +3.0%  
 +19.0%  
 +15.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 06/13/2024  
  Up arrow39,900 or 37,650 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow15,800 or 14,300 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow960 or 890 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow17,800 or 16,750 by 07/01/2024
  Up arrow5,500 or 5,250 by 07/01/2024

January 2024 Headlines

Archives


Wednesday 1/31/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has erased any bearish or neutral signal to show the latest one as bullish. Recall that the CPI can change its mind for up to a week. In the last two days, the indicator has slipped a bit.

The CPI suggests the uptrend will continue but I still expect a retrace. That's especially true in the Nasdaq where I expect weakness in the coming week before an uptrend resumes. That's a guess, though. I've nothing to back that up except hope and a feeling.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 29% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 30%.
The fewest was 26% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 517 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

The red line shows improvement compared to a week ago but the blue line is flat.

Both lines are bullish if you ignore that the index is making new highs but the two lines (red and blue) are not. I think that suggests weakness but we haven't really seen any reaction to that and it's been several weeks of this unfolding.

Both charts are bullish this week but I'm still expecting a retrace. Of course, I've been expecting a retrace for about two months now, so what do I know? Smiley

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AKAM, ALB, AA, AXP, AIG, APH, AR, AON, APA, AGO, BCPC, BAX, BOOT, BMY, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CTAS, CNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, CR, CRH, CCRN, DHR, DVN, FANG, DFS, BOOM, EMN, ECL, WIRE, EOG, EL, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FMC, FNV, FCX, GME, GD, GILD, GS, GGG, HBI, HE, HP, HOLX, HOV, HWM, HUN, IDA, ILMN, INCY, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, IPG, LEG, MGY, MAN, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, NOV, NEU, JWN, OXY, PAYX, PYPL, PEN, PNW, PLXS, PGR, PRU, PEG, KWR, RJF, RGS, RLI, ROK, ROP, RES, SAND, SLB, SMTC, STR, LUV, SXI, SSYS, TRGP, TER, TMO, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, VMC, WLK, WMB, WWD, IAI, IYC, IHE, FXL, FXI, IEV, IXN, SLV, IEO, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWW, EZA, PJP, XLB, USO, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/30/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.6% or 224.02 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 901 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 508 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 393 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 281/509 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/111 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Rectangle tops.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, AEIS, ATSG, AKAM, AFG, AME, AMN, APH, APOG, ARW, BAX, BZH, BOOT, BR, CBT, CPB, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, CMCO, CMTL, GLW, CRH, CROX, CTS, XRAY, DOV, BOOM, EMR, EL, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FDX, FTV, GILD, HBI, THG, HAYN, HOLX, HON, HOV, HUN, ITW, ILMN, IBKR, IPG, IPI, JKHY, JAZZ, KALU, KMT, KEYS, KFRC, L, MTDR, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, JWN, NWPX, OUT, PKE, PYPL, PFE, QCOM, RL, RGS, ROK, RGLD, ^GSPC, SBH, SLB, SEIC, SMTC, SCI, SHW, SMAR, LUV, SXI, SRDX, TPR, TER, TDG, RIG, UHAL, UGI, VMI, VC, WU, WSM, WWD, WDAY, IAI, IYC, IHE, IGV, SLV, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWP, TUR, EWU, PBE, PJP, SSO, ROBO, XLI, XRT, SPY, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,798.21    
 Monthly S1  37,565.83  767.62   
 Weekly S2  37,695.22  129.39   
 Monthly Pivot  37,890.57  195.35   
 Daily S2  37,963.42  72.85   
 Weekly S1  38,014.34  50.91   
 Low  38,061.17  46.84   
 Weekly Pivot  38,114.82  53.65   
 Open  38,115.83  1.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  38,148.44  32.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,169.18  20.75   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,202.55  33.37   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,235.91  33.36   
 Daily Pivot  38,246.18  10.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  38,333.45  87.27   
 High  38,343.93  10.48   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  38,431.20  87.27   
 Weekly R1  38,433.94  2.74   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  38,528.94  95.00   
 Weekly R2  38,534.42  5.48   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  38,658.19  123.77   
 Monthly R2  38,982.93  324.74   

Monday 1/29/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 index on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index continues to rise. It broke out upward from a consolidation pattern (B), loosely called a broadening top.

When the index retraces, and it will, look for the index to drop back to C. That's the top of the broadening pattern.

The decline can continued below that, too. Look for the index to find support at the knot circled in green, at A.

I guess the real question is when will the index retrace? History says the index will bottom in early February. That's next week. That seems to be a wish rather than a given.

I'm still waiting for a significant retrace before I deploy my cash. I have my doubts that we'll see it anytime soon. So don't expect the index to reach A or even C in the next week or two.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 138.01 points.
Tuesday: Down 96.36 points.
Wednesday: Down 99.06 points.
Thursday: Up 242.74 points.
Friday: Up 60.3 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 245.63 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 144.39 points or 0.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 51.16 points or 1.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.3% down from the high of 38,215.31 on 01/26/2024.
     2.7% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     1.1% down from the high of 15,629.07 on 01/24/2024.
     6.8% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 4,906.69 on 01/26/2024.
     4.5% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  37,890  38,000  38,108  38,217  38,325 
Weekly  37,621  37,865  38,040  38,285  38,460 
Monthly  36,724  37,416  37,816  38,509  38,908 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,868  4,879  4,893  4,905  4,918 
Weekly  4,818  4,854  4,881  4,917  4,943 
Monthly  4,602  4,746  4,827  4,971  5,051 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,370  15,413  15,476  15,518  15,582 
Weekly  15,177  15,316  15,473  15,612  15,768 
Monthly  14,036  14,746  15,187  15,897  16,339 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ATSG, AEP, AXP, AME, ARW, AIZ, BALL, BAX, BIO, BOOT, BAH, BFH, CAL, COR, CRL, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CMTL, CR, DHR, XRAY, DSGR, ^DJT, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EZPW, FDX, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FNV, FDP, GILD, GPN, GL, HBI, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HSII, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IBP, INTC, IRM, JKHY, KLIC, LH, LEG, LMT, L, MTSI, MGY, MAN, MLKN, MOS, NTAP, NEU, JWN, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PFE, PCG, PLXS, DGX, RGS, ROK, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, SIGI, SMTC, SCI, LUV, TPR, TECH, TDY, TER, TXN, TG, SLCA, UNM, VECO, VMC, WU, WSM, WDAY, IYC, IHE, FDN, ICF, IEV, MXI, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWS, EZA, TUR, EWU, IBB, PEJ, PJP, SSO, XRT, SPY, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Furn/Home Furnishings1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Homebuilding2. Homebuilding
3. Shoe3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Apparel4. Retail (Special Lines)
5. IT Services5. Internet
6. Retail (Special Lines)6. IT Services
7. E-Commerce7. Apparel
8. Computer Software and Svcs8. Shoe
9. Internet9. E-Commerce
10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.10. Computer Software and Svcs
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Electric Utility (East)
51. Electric Utility (East)51. Short ETFs
52. Air Transport52. Natural Gas (Distributor)
53. Medical Supplies53. Medical Supplies
54. Short ETFs54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Food Processing
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Air Transport
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Food Processing58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Chemical (Diversified)59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/26/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AES, ALK, ALKS, ALGT, DOX, AEP, AMWD, AAPL, ADM, ASH, AIZ, ADP, BSET, BAX, BZH, BIO, BKH, BA, BOOT, BSX, BFH, BMY, BLDR, CAL, CNC, CNP, CVX, CLX, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CXW, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EPAM, EZPW, FFIV, FDS, FORM, FDP, GL, HBI, HLIT, HD, HUM, HURC, ILMN, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, NVTA, KBH, LRCX, LEN, L, MHO, M, MCHX, MKTX, MLM, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, NEU, NEE, JWN, NOC, ORI, OR, PKG, PKE, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PXD, PLXS, POR, PPL, DGX, RGS, RNG, ROK, ROL, SLB, SIGI, SMTC, SKYW, SO, LUV, SR, SPSC, SXI, SNPS, TER, TXN, TOL, TREX, VFC, VLO, VECO, VEEV, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IHE, IDU, QTEC, ICF, IYH, IHF, IXC, SLV, IHI, EWW, PJP, XLE, XLV, XLU, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACNPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024IT Services
ADBEHead-and-shoulders bottom      12/15/202301/17/2024Computer Software and Svcs
AMDThree Rising Valleys      10/26/202301/03/2024Semiconductor
AFLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/15/202301/09/2024Insurance (Diversified)
AMWDThree Rising Valleys      10/27/202301/09/2024Building Materials
APHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/04/202401/17/2024Electronics
AAPLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/05/202401/17/2024Computers and Peripherals
ADMDead-cat bounce      01/22/202401/22/2024Food Processing
AWIChannel      12/15/202301/24/2024Building Materials
ATODouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/08/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVADouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/05/2024Electric Utility (West)
AXSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202301/16/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BECNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/27/202301/08/2024Retail Building Supply
BMRNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/08/2024Biotechnology
BKHDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/08/2024Electric Utility (West)
BKNGThree Rising Valleys      10/26/202301/04/2024Internet
CXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/04/202401/17/2024Cement and Aggregates
CFDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/05/202312/12/2023Chemical (Basic)
EDDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/10/2024Electric Utility (East)
CAGTriangle, descending      12/14/202301/22/2024Food Processing
CSGPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/05/202401/17/2024Information Services
DUKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/10/2024Electric Utility (East)
FEDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/10/2024Electric Utility (East)
FIVNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      01/05/202401/17/2024Computer Software and Svcs
FTVDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/03/202401/17/2024Industrial Services
ITPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024IT Services
HSYTriangle, descending      01/04/202401/25/2024Food Processing
DHIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/10/202401/22/2024Homebuilding
JBHTDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/04/202401/16/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
INFNThree Rising Valleys      10/30/202301/04/2024Telecom. Equipment
ITGRThree Rising Valleys      10/25/202301/03/2024Electronics
IRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      01/03/202401/17/2024Industrial Services
KEYSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/05/202401/17/2024Precision Instrument
KLACThree Rising Valleys      10/26/202301/05/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LRCXThree Rising Valleys      10/31/202301/04/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RAMPPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024Computer Software and Svcs
LMTDouble Top, Eve and Adam      01/03/202401/16/2024Aerospace/Defense
MYGNPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024Biotechnology
NOVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/11/202401/17/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNHorn bottom      01/02/202401/16/2024Retail Store
NOCTriple top      12/13/202301/17/2024Aerospace/Defense
NVDAThree Rising Valleys      10/31/202301/03/2024Semiconductor
PYPLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/04/202401/17/2024Financial Services
PHMThree Rising Valleys      10/24/202301/03/2024Homebuilding
KWRDiamond bottom      01/09/202401/24/2024Chemical (Specialty)
DGXTriple top      12/14/202301/10/2024Medical Services
RMBSBroadening top      11/21/202301/22/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RGSPipe top      12/04/202312/11/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
SLBPipe bottom      01/08/202401/16/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SREDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/08/2024Electric Utility (West)
SMTCPipe bottom      01/08/202401/16/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SCIHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/04/202401/19/2024Industrial Services
SOHead-and-shoulders top      12/07/202301/04/2024Electric Utility (East)
LUVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/03/202401/16/2024Air Transport
TDYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/29/202301/24/2024Aerospace/Defense
TPXRoof, inverted      12/15/202301/25/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
TDCTriple bottom      12/07/202301/05/2024Computer Software and Svcs
TERDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/04/202401/17/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TKRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/03/202401/17/2024Metal Fabricating
TZOOTriangle, descending      12/07/202301/12/2024Internet
WMBHead-and-shoulders top      11/06/202301/04/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

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Thursday 1/25/24. Bitcoin Chart (BTC-USD). More Down

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.4% or 55.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 637 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 405 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 232 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 268/478 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/159 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily chart.

I drew a red trendline as a sell line. I've found that trendlines like this can make for timely exit signals. When the currency closed below the red line, A, it was a sell signal.

Unfortunately, I don't know how far the currency will drop. It has already dropped some... It could drop back to the level of the start of the trendline, about 33,000.

And that's all she wrote. Smiley

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 290 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABM, AEIS, AMD, AKAM, ALRM, ALKS, AMZN, AEE, AEP, AEL, AME, AMGN, APH, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, AWI, ARW, ATO, ADP, AVNT, AVA, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BKH, BOOT, BCO, BRKR, BG, CBT, CPB, CNP, CSCO, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CXW, CR, CRH, CTS, XRAY, DSGR, ^DJU, DOV, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, EFX, EL, EVRG, EVH, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FARO, FAST, FE, FLS, FMC, FTV, FNV, GMS, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GES, HBI, HTLD, HELE, HSY, HOLX, HON, DHI, HOV, HUBG, IEX, INCY, INFN, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, IRM, JAZZ, KLAC, LH, LRCX, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MA, MSFT, ^IXIC, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NEE, NI, JWN, NOVT, NVDA, OGE, ORI, OMC, ORCL, OR, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PNW, POR, PINC, PGR, PEG, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, REGN, RGS, RNG, ROK, ROL, ROP, ROST, RGLD, R, ^GSPC, SAND, SLB, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, STR, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SR, SXI, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TDY, TPX, TER, TXT, TMO, TDG, TWLO, UHAL, SLCA, UPS, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, WMT, WSO, WPM, WSC, WOLF, WWD, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, ITB, IHE, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, MXI, IXN, SOXX, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, IBB, PEJ, PJP, SSO, ROBO, XLF, GLD, XLV, XRT, SPY, XLK, XLU, USO, SMH, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,256.75    
 Weekly S2  14,561.63  304.88   
 Monthly S1  14,869.34  307.70   
 Weekly S1  15,021.78  152.44   
 Monthly Pivot  15,090.15  68.38   
 Weekly Pivot  15,166.37  76.22   
 Daily S2  15,366.47  200.10   
 Daily S1  15,424.20  57.72   
 Low  15,468.91  44.71   
 Close  15,481.92  13.01   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  15,526.63  44.71   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,530.09  3.46   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,548.99  18.90   
 Open  15,560.61  11.62   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,567.89  7.28   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  15,584.36  16.47   
 Weekly R1  15,626.52  42.16   
 High  15,629.07  2.55   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  15,686.79  57.72   
 Monthly R1  15,702.74  15.94   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  15,771.11  68.38   
 Monthly R2  15,923.55  152.44   

Wednesday 1/24/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned green, which is bullish. It's at 90, which is close to the top of the range, which is 100.

Earnings will be coming out soon, so that'll likely bounce things around.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 30% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 32%.
The fewest was 26% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 517 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

Both the red and blue lines are higher (better) than they were a week ago. Of course, the lines follow index like puppies.

The index is making new highs but notice that both the red and blue lines are below their highs. I'm not sure what it means, though.

Both charts are bullish but I view this cautiously. It looks to me like the upward momentum will falter and the uptrend will end.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, ALK, ALB, ALGT, AMED, AEO, AEL, AFG, AIG, AMN, APA, APOG, ARCB, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BALL, BAX, BECN, BERY, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BCO, BRKR, BBW, CBT, CPB, CINF, CSCO, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, CXW, CR, CTS, XRAY, DVN, DSGR, BOOM, EMN, EIX, FDS, FAST, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GD, GNW, GMS, GGG, GES, HOLX, HOV, HUBG, HUN, IDA, IIIN, INTC, KALU, KLIC, LXU, MANH, MA, MLKN, MYGN, NTGR, NKE, JWN, NUS, ORI, OXM, PKG, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PINC, RTX, RGS, ROK, ROL, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SEIC, SMTC, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TPX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, TJX, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TG, UHAL, VMI, WMT, WSO, WLK, WEX, WSC, WOLF, WWW, IYM, IYK, IHE, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IXN, ILF, EWK, EWZ, EWI, THD, DBA, PJP, ROBO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/23/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.4% or 138.01 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1140 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 604 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 536 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 281/508 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/111 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Pipe bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 212 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AEIS, AKAM, DOX, AEP, AMWD, AMN, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, ANET, AGO, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BKNG, BSX, BCO, BR, BLDR, BG, CDNS, COR, CENX, CDAY, CINF, CSCO, CNO, ED, CONN, COP, CXW, CRH, CTS, CMI, ^DJT, D, DUK, EXP, EIX, EMR, FFIV, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FTV, FCX, FDP, IT, GNW, GMS, GS, GPRO, GGG, GES, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HNI, HOLX, HUBG, IDA, INCY, INFN, IBP, PODD, INTU, KEYS, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MCHX, MAS, MA, MU, MSFT, MLI, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NTAP, NWL, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OR, PANW, PATK, PAYX, PEN, PRFT, PNW, PPL, PHM, PSTG, QTWO, QCOM, DGX, RNG, ROK, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, SEIC, SKX, LUV, SPLK, SPSC, SXI, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TTD, TKR, TJX, TREX, UIS, VECO, VRTX, VMC, WPM, XEL, IAI, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IGV, IXN, SLV, IGE, IHI, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWP, EWT, IBB, PPA, PJP, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLE, XHB, XLI, SPY, XLK, UNG, USO, VIS, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  36,808.84    
 Weekly S2  36,875.38  66.55   
 Monthly S1  37,405.32  529.94   
 Weekly S1  37,438.60  33.27   
 Monthly Pivot  37,669.53  230.93   
 Weekly Pivot  37,686.16  16.64   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  37,809.95  123.79   
 Daily S1  37,905.88  95.93   
 Low  37,911.61  5.73   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  37,919.55  7.94   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  37,987.09  67.54   
 Close  38,001.81  14.72   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  38,007.54  5.73   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,010.41  2.87   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,033.72  23.31   
 Daily R1  38,103.47  69.75   
 High  38,109.20  5.73   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  38,205.13  95.93   
 Weekly R1  38,249.38  44.25   
 Monthly R1  38,266.01  16.64   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  38,496.94  230.93   
 Monthly R2  38,530.21  33.27   

Monday 1/22/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

At B, we see the index gap above a down-sloping trendline. It attempted to throwback (return) to the trendline (C), but it wasn't a serious attempt.

That spoke of underlying power in the move higher.

At A, we see the index has made a strong advance and closed above the prior peak and above a red line connecting the two recent peaks.

This isn't a busted double top in the strict sense of the phrase (because price has to confirm the pattern and drop no more than 10% below the valley between the two peaks before closing above the top of the pattern).

Regardless, it's a bullish move. So I'm looking for the index to continue moving higher but finding weakness in the first half of February, based on historical trends.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 231.86 points.
Wednesday: Down 94.45 points.
Thursday: Up 201.94 points.
Friday: Up 395.19 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 270.82 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 338.21 points or 2.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 55.98 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 37,933.73 on 01/19/2024.
     2.0% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.0% down from the high of 15,310.97 on 01/19/2024.
     5.8% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.0% down from the high of 4,842.07 on 01/19/2024.
     3.4% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  37,268  37,566  37,750  38,048  38,232 
Weekly  36,829  37,347  37,640  38,157  38,451 
Monthly  36,763  37,313  37,624  38,174  38,484 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,766  4,803  4,822  4,859  4,879 
Weekly  4,672  4,756  4,799  4,883  4,926 
Monthly  4,628  4,734  4,788  4,894  4,948 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,013  15,162  15,236  15,386  15,460 
Weekly  14,505  14,908  15,109  15,513  15,714 
Monthly  14,200  14,755  15,033  15,589  15,867 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 159 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACN, AES, AFL, A, ALL, AEO, AEP, AEL, ANIK, AR, AMAT, ACGL, ADM, ANET, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BALL, BAX, BKNG, BSX, CDNS, CALM, COR, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CINF, CLF, CLX, CNA, CGNX, CCRN, CCK, DHR, DFS, D, DUK, EXP, EIX, EME, EL, EG, FFIV, FORM, FTNT, FDP, IT, GOOGL, GGG, THG, HIG, HSY, INCY, INFN, NVTA, K, KLAC, LRCX, RAMP, L, LPLA, M, MANH, MDC, META, MSFT, MYGN, ^IXIC, NKE, ORI, ON, ORCL, OR, PAYX, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PNW, PPG, PSTG, QCOM, DGX, RGA, RLI, ROK, ROL, ROST, SAND, SRE, SMTC, SHOP, LUV, SWX, SPLK, SXI, SCS, SUM, TER, TXN, TRV, TZOO, TG, WRB, WPM, WSC, WDAY, XEL, IYK, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IGV, IXN, SOXX, EWY, EWT, TUR, QLD, PJP, XLP, XLB, XRT, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Furn/Home Furnishings
2. Homebuilding2. Homebuilding
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Apparel
5. Internet5. Internet
6. IT Services6. IT Services
7. Apparel7. Retail Store
8. Shoe8. Building Materials
9. E-Commerce9. Computer Software and Svcs
10. Computer Software and Svcs10. E-Commerce
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Metal Fabricating
51. Short ETFs51. Computers and Peripherals
52. Natural Gas (Distributor)52. Advertising
53. Medical Supplies53. Short ETFs
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Food Processing55. Medical Supplies
56. Air Transport56. Food Processing
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Air Transport
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/19/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, AFL, AA, AEE, AEO, AEP, AIG, ANIK, AR, ASH, AVNT, BAX, BMRN, BOOT, BSX, BFH, CDNS, COR, CENX, CLNE, CLF, CMTL, CRH, DFS, ^DJT, D, DOV, DTE, DUK, EXP, EIX, EVH, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FWRD, FDP, GPS, IT, GPN, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, THG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HOLX, HOV, HUM, JBHT, INCY, INFN, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, NVTA, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAMR, RAMP, LMT, L, M, MGY, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MU, MSFT, MYGN, NFG, NEE, NKE, JWN, NWPX, ORCL, OR, OUT, PANW, PKE, PAYX, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PNW, PFG, DGX, RRC, RTX, ROK, ROST, RGLD, SAIA, CRM, NOW, SLGN, LUV, SWN, SR, TER, UGI, UNH, UNM, VECO, WPM, XEL, IYE, IHE, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IXC, IXN, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWM, TUR, PJP, XLB, XRT, XLK, SMH, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXDXDead-cat bounce      01/16/202401/16/2024Medical Services
AFGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/14/202301/05/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AONDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      12/20/202301/05/2024Insurance (Diversified)
BMYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/22/202301/02/2024Drug
CDNSPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024Computer Software and Svcs
CPBTriangle, symmetrical      12/06/202301/18/2024Food Processing
CHDUgly double bottom      11/03/202312/15/2023Household Products
DPipe top      01/02/202401/08/2024Electric Utility (East)
EMNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/26/2023Chemical (Diversified)
EBAYTriple top      12/19/202301/02/2024Internet
ELVDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/13/202301/04/2024Medical Services
FDPPipe top      01/02/202401/08/2024Food Processing
GPSTriple top      12/11/202301/09/2024Apparel
HBIHead-and-shoulders top      12/14/202301/12/2024Apparel
HLITHead-and-shoulders top      12/21/202301/08/2024Telecom. Equipment
HSICHead-and-shoulders top      12/15/202301/09/2024Medical Supplies
IDXXTriple top      12/14/202301/12/2024Drug
INCYPipe top      01/02/202401/08/2024Drug
LHXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/20/202301/02/2024Aerospace/Defense
LZBHead-and-shoulders top      12/04/202301/10/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
LANCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/21/202301/05/2024Food Processing
MANHPipe bottom      01/08/202401/08/2024IT Services
MOSHead-and-shoulders top      11/16/202301/03/2024Chemical (Diversified)
NWLDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/09/2024Household Products
NIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/14/202301/10/2024Electric Utility (Central)
OUTDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/27/202301/12/2024Advertising
PCGHead-and-shoulders complex top      11/20/202301/10/2024Electric Utility (West)
PNWPipe top      01/02/202401/08/2024Electric Utility (West)
PORDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/05/2024Electric Utility (West)
PINCTriple top      12/22/202301/08/2024Healthcare Information
DGXPipe top      01/02/202401/08/2024Medical Services
RLIUgly double bottom      12/15/202301/09/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RPipe top      12/18/202312/26/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SIGIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/21/202301/09/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
TXNHead-and-shoulders top      12/15/202301/09/2024Semiconductor
VEEVPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Healthcare Information
WPMHead-and-shoulders top      12/01/202301/12/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
XLKPipe bottom      01/02/202401/08/2024IT Services

 

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Thursday 1/18/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.6% or -88.73 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 346 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.1% on 159 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 187 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 54.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 268/478 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/158 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line (A) outlines the form of an inverted and ascending scallop chart pattern. Of course the image is far from ideal (with the red line showing how smooth the turn could be). Indeed, it's almost unrecognizable as a chart pattern.

The green line shows areas of resistance against an upward move. However, at B, the resistance didn't slow the recovery.

What this suggests is that the upward move will continue but with caution. Overhead resistance could block the advance.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 235 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACN, ADBE, AFL, ALK, AA, ALGT, AMZN, AEP, AMWD, ANIK, AR, APA, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, AXS, BALL, BAX, BZH, BFH, BCO, CBT, CDNS, CLS, COR, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CLF, CLX, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, GLW, COST, COTY, CR, CCRN, CTS, XRAY, DVN, FANG, D, DOV, EXP, EMN, EIX, ELV, EMR, EOG, EQT, EL, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FTV, FWRD, FCX, FDP, GPS, IT, GFS, HBI, HAYN, HL, HSII, HELE, HNI, HOLX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, NSP, IBKR, TILE, NVTA, IRM, KALU, KSS, LZB, LANC, LLY, RAMP, M, MANH, MRO, MTDR, MTRN, MDT, MRCY, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NEE, NKE, NOVT, OMCL, ON, OTEX, ORCL, OR, OUT, OMI, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PNW, PLXS, PSTG, KWR, DGX, REGN, ROK, RCKY, ROG, RGLD, RES, SAIA, CRM, SAND, SMTC, SLGN, STR, SMAR, SCCO, SR, SPSC, SUM, SRDX, TRGP, TDOC, TER, TXT, TDG, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VFC, VLO, WSO, WERN, WPM, WOLF, WWW, XEL, IYM, IHE, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IEV, IGV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, QLD, IBB, PEJ, PJP, ROBO, XLY, XLB, XRT, XLK, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,871.77    
 Weekly S2  14,323.07  451.29   
 Monthly S1  14,363.70  40.63   
 Weekly S1  14,589.34  225.65   
 Daily S2  14,649.67  60.33   
 Low  14,706.23  56.56   
 Daily S1  14,752.65  46.42   
 Monthly Pivot  14,756.88  4.24   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,767.17  10.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,786.00  18.82   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,804.82  18.82   
 Daily Pivot  14,809.20  4.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  14,814.77  5.57   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  14,826.48  11.71   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Close  14,855.62  29.14   
 High  14,865.76  10.14   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  14,912.18  46.42   
 Daily R2  14,968.73  56.56   
 Weekly R1  15,092.75  124.02   
 Monthly R1  15,248.81  156.05   
 Weekly R2  15,329.89  81.08   
 Monthly R2  15,641.99  312.11   

Wednesday 1/17/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern we see in the index is an unconfirmed double top. That's a twin peak pattern that isn't valid until price closes below the valley between the two peaks.

If it confirms, then expect the index to continue lower. Until then, anything can happen.

Near the bottom of the chart is the CPI line. It's hovering near 18 with 0 as the lowest it can go. It suggest weakness. The pattern on that blue line reminds me of a measured move up. It suggests a rise to 36 before it drops back down. But that's a guess.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 32% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 26% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 517 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

Since mid December, see the rounded turn by the red line. It's heading down now, confirmed by the above readings. Both lines are worse today compared to a week ago.

Both charts are bearish but the CPI suggests we might see price move higher before dropping again. I'm going to wait longer for a bigger drop, which I believe is coming.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 204 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ABM, AXDX, ACIW, AMD, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALKS, ALGT, AMZN, AXP, AMGN, AMN, APA, AAPL, ARW, ASH, AVNT, AXS, BALL, BAX, BERY, BKH, BA, BOOT, BFH, CDNS, CAL, CE, COR, CENX, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLF, CMCO, CAG, CXW, GLW, DOV, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EOG, EL, EG, EXPI, FAST, FISV, FMC, FORM, FTV, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, GFS, HBI, HLIT, HELE, HOLX, HUN, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IBKR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, KBH, KEYS, KSS, LRCX, LEN, LLY, LMT, LXU, MTSI, M, MRTN, MDC, MRCY, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MS, MYGN, NFG, NTGR, NJR, NOVT, OLN, OTEX, OMI, PTEN, PEN, PFE, PNW, POR, PFG, PG, RMBS, ROK, ROP, SMTC, SLGN, SKYW, SCCO, SWX, SR, SXI, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TTD, TOL, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VFC, VLO, V, WSO, WERN, WPM, WSC, WOLF, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FXI, IYZ, IEV, MXI, IXN, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWG, EWH, EWM, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PJP, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, XLK, SMH, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/16/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.3% or -118.04 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1091 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 516 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 575 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 281/508 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Triple bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABM, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, ALK, AA, AMZN, DOX, AEE, AXP, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AXS, BSET, BAX, BZH, BIG, BIO, BKH, BA, BKNG, BFH, COR, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CTSH, CL, CXW, GLW, COST, CW, DVN, DFS, DOV, EXP, EIX, EPAM, EL, EG, EVRG, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FDP, GD, GNW, GILD, GGG, HIG, HE, HL, HELE, HP, HUM, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, PODD, IPG, NVTA, JAZZ, KALU, KBH, KMT, LHX, LANC, LEN, LLY, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MRTN, MAS, MDC, META, MLKN, MLI, NFG, NEU, NOC, NOVT, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPL, PFG, PG, PSTG, REGN, RLI, ROK, ROG, SEIC, SMTC, SR, SSYS, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TPX, TDC, TER, TKR, TOL, UPS, UNM, VMI, MDRX, VRTX, VC, WSO, WEX, WPM, WSC, WOLF, XEL, ZBRA, IYC, ITB, IHE, FXL, FXI, MXI, SOXX, SLV, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EWJ, EPP, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PJP, XHB, XAR, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  35,396.33    
 Monthly S1  36,494.66  1,098.32   
 Weekly S2  36,979.80  485.14   
 Monthly Pivot  37,159.96  180.16   
 Daily S2  37,274.40  114.43   
 Weekly S1  37,286.39  11.99   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  37,433.69  147.30   
 Low  37,470.19  36.50   
 Weekly Pivot  37,555.83  85.64   
 Close  37,592.98  37.15   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  37,605.83  12.85   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  37,629.48  23.65   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  37,647.73  18.25   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  37,689.63  41.90   
 Daily R1  37,788.77  99.14   
 Open  37,818.05  29.28   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  37,825.27  7.22   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  37,862.42  37.15   
 Daily R2  37,984.56  122.14   
 Weekly R2  38,131.86  147.30   
 Monthly R1  38,258.29  126.43   
 Monthly R2  38,923.59  665.31   

Friday 1/12/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ALRM, AEP, ARCB, ARW, AXS, BALL, BAX, BBY, BIG, BA, CLS, COR, CNC, CINF, CLNE, CMCO, ED, CCK, EXP, EPAM, FFIV, FARO, FWRD, GD, GNW, HE, HSII, HOLX, IDA, INFN, IPG, NVTA, JNJ, LHX, LLY, MGY, MCHX, MKTX, MSFT, MS, MOS, MYGN, NFLX, NKE, ORI, OLN, ORCL, PANW, PTEN, PCTY, PETS, PNW, POR, PPL, KWR, DGX, ROK, ROL, ROST, SBH, SCHW, SEIC, NOW, SHW, STR, SO, SR, SPLK, SNPS, TGT, TTD, RIG, TG, SLCA, UPS, UNH, WOLF, WWD, XEL, ZBRA, IEZ, IHE, IDU, IYZ, IEV, SLV, EWA, ECH, EEM, EWM, EPP, EWY, TUR, EWU, IBB, PBE, PJP, XLB, XAR, UNG, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AESTriangle, symmetrical      12/14/202301/10/2024Electric Utility (East)
APDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/18/202312/27/2023Chemical (Diversified)
BSETHead-and-shoulders top      11/06/202312/27/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
CACIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      12/20/202301/04/2024IT Services
CONNFlag, high and tight      12/07/202301/10/2024Retail (Special Lines)
CWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/13/202301/02/2024Machinery
^DJTDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/19/202312/22/2023None
EXPDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/26/202301/05/2024Air Transport
GMEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/19/202312/27/2023Retail (Special Lines)
HWMTriangle, symmetrical      12/14/202301/09/2024Aerospace/Defense
IPGBroadening top      12/18/202301/11/2024Advertising
MROHead-and-shoulders top      12/18/202301/04/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
MURDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/01/202312/26/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
NJRTriple top      12/14/202301/03/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
NVDAUgly double bottom      10/31/202312/04/2023Semiconductor
RLIPipe bottom      12/11/202312/18/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SMGHead-and-shoulders top      12/14/202301/08/2024Chemical (Basic)
SHWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/29/2023Chemical (Basic)
SWNHead-and-shoulders bottom      11/10/202301/04/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
VLODouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/20/202301/04/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
XELDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202301/04/2024Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 1/11/24. Ethereum Cryptocurrency

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.8% or 111.94 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 425 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 279 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 146 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 65.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 267/477 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/158 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the eth-usd on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Ethereum cryptocurrency on the daily scale.

There's not much to show on the chart. At A, these large price swings make me nervous, as if I think they will lead to a downward breakout. It might. However, I haven't done much research on this. My experience says that it won't. Bollinger bands will tell you that periods of low volatility follow periods of high volatility. That doesn't tell the direction, but it suggests it will be a strong trend upward or downward.

In green (B) is a broadening bottom or top. I can't tell in this chart.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AKAM, ALK, AMZN, AXP, APOG, AMAT, ADM, ARW, BAX, BIO, BKNG, BLDR, BG, CNC, CNP, CLNE, CNO, CMCO, COST, CR, CCRN, CTS, FANG, EXP, EXPD, FICO, FTNT, FWRD, IT, GMS, THG, HSY, HD, DHI, HWM, IBP, INTC, IPG, ISRG, JBLU, KBH, K, KMB, LHX, LEN, LLY, LOW, MGY, MDC, MRCY, META, MSFT, MOS, MUR, PANW, PCTY, PCG, PPG, PRU, PEG, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RHI, ROK, RES, SBH, SLB, SCHW, SIGI, NOW, SHOP, LUV, SR, SSYS, TEVA, TOL, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VECO, WMT, WOLF, ZBRA, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IHF, IYZ, MXI, ILF, EEM, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, TUR, IBB, PBE, PJP, XLF, XHB, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,634.53    
 Monthly S1  14,302.09  667.56   
 Weekly S2  14,368.11  66.02   
 Weekly S1  14,668.88  300.77   
 Monthly Pivot  14,726.08  57.20   
 Weekly Pivot  14,778.34  52.26   
 Daily S2  14,781.35  3.01   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  14,842.70  61.35   
 Daily S1  14,875.50  32.80   
 Open  14,877.70  2.20   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,902.10  24.40   
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,920.45  18.35   
 Daily Pivot  14,936.85  16.40   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,938.80  1.95   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,969.65  30.85   
 High  14,998.20  28.55   
 Daily R1  15,031.00  32.80   
 Weekly R1  15,079.11  48.11   
 Daily R2  15,092.35  13.24   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  15,188.57  96.22   
 Monthly R1  15,393.64  205.07   
 Monthly R2  15,817.63  423.99   

Wednesday 1/10/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI remains bearish. If you look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, it's at or near the 0 value, which is the lowest on the scale.

What does this mean? The signal is bearish and getting worse (more bearish). However, if you're an optimist, then the indictor doesn't tend to stay near 0 for too long.

This could mean the start of a measured move down pattern, starting with the first leg at the highest peak in the chart, moving down, retracing (going back up) and then resuming the second leg with another drop. You can think of this as a stair-step down pattern.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 26% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 517 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

Both the red and blue lines are slightly worse this week compared to a week ago.

Both charts are bearish but it's not a strong push lower, I think. I expect the downtrend to continue but the CPI says a bounce upward might happen. So I'm not confident of the direction.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, AXDX, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AFL, ALK, AIG, APA, ARW, AXS, BAX, CAL, CNC, CDAY, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNX, CGNX, CAG, COP, CXW, DVN, FANG, DRQ, EXP, EXPD, XOM, FNV, GME, GL, HBI, THG, HP, IDXX, ILMN, INCY, LHX, LANC, LPLA, MGY, MRO, MDT, MLKN, MUR, NBR, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, ASGN, PXD, PLXS, QTWO, RGA, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROP, ROST, RES, R, SBH, SAND, SLB, LUV, SR, SSYS, TFX, SLCA, VECO, WMT, WU, ZBRA, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IXC, MXI, SLV, IGE, IEO, ECH, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWY, EWD, TUR, PXJ, PJP, XLE, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/9/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.6% or 216.9 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 899 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 507 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 392 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 281/507 or 55.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Head-and-shoulders bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 153 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ACIW, ADBE, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AEO, AIG, AWI, AXS, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, BOOT, BFH, BLDR, CNC, CDAY, CLNE, CLF, CONN, COST, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, CMI, D, DRQ, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FIVN, FTNT, FWRD, FDP, GPS, GMS, GS, HBI, THG, HQY, HP, HOLX, HD, HOV, JBHT, HUN, INFN, IBP, KMT, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LANC, LEG, LEN, LOW, MTSI, MGY, MAN, MTRX, MCO, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NWL, NKE, NWPX, NTNX, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PEN, PRFT, PETS, PNW, PLXS, POR, RMBS, ROK, RES, R, SBH, SAND, STR, SMAR, SO, SWN, SPSC, SNPS, TDY, TFX, TMO, TJX, TOL, TDG, UHAL, SLCA, UPS, UNH, WU, WPM, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, FXI, ICF, IEV, MXI, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, GLD, XLI, XLB, VAW, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  35,253.55    
 Monthly S1  36,468.28  1,214.73   
 Daily S2  37,098.04  629.76   
 Monthly Pivot  37,129.18  31.14   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S2  37,132.71  3.53   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  37,249.24  116.53   
 Open  37,327.37  78.13   
 Daily S1  37,390.53  63.16   
 Weekly S1  37,407.86  17.33   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  37,418.73  10.87   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  37,471.08  52.35   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  37,523.43  52.36   
 Daily Pivot  37,541.72  18.29   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  37,598.97  57.25   
 Close  37,683.01  84.04   
 High  37,692.92  9.91   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  37,834.21  141.29   
 Weekly R1  37,874.12  39.91   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  37,985.40  111.28   
 Weekly R2  38,065.23  79.83   
 Monthly R1  38,343.91  278.68   
 Monthly R2  39,004.81  660.90   

Monday 1/8/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I've highlighted the recent swing low and high values. Taking the Fibonacci values of that swing gives an indication of where the Dow might retrace. Keep in mind that I've proven that Fib retraces don't work.

To put it differently, price will retrace at common values of 38%, 50%, or 62% as often as they retrace any other number. I didn't see any value for a retrace where stocks would stop.

Circled in green is a knot where I think a retrace will stop. Of course, price has to get there first. We might see a drop that far in February, if the 2024 forecast (slide 4) is correct.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 25.5 points.
Wednesday: Down 284.85 points.
Thursday: Up 10.15 points.
Friday: Up 25.77 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 223.43 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 487.28 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 72.59 points or 1.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 37,790.08 on 01/02/2024.
     0.4% up from the low of 37,323.82 on 01/05/2024.
Nasdaq
     2.4% down from the high of 14,887.80 on 01/02/2024.
     0.3% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     1.2% down from the high of 4,754.33 on 01/02/2024.
     0.3% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  37,171  37,319  37,471  37,619  37,771 
Weekly  37,060  37,263  37,527  37,730  37,993 
Monthly  35,181  36,324  37,057  38,199  38,933 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,661  4,679  4,700  4,718  4,740 
Weekly  4,639  4,668  4,711  4,740  4,783 
Monthly  4,432  4,565  4,679  4,812  4,926 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,395  14,459  14,542  14,607  14,690 
Weekly  14,220  14,372  14,630  14,782  15,040 
Monthly  13,486  14,005  14,578  15,097  15,669 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 8 days.

Here's a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AMD, ALK, AEO, ANIK, APA, AAPL, ADM, ANET, ADP, BALL, BSET, BA, BAH, BFH, CX, CHD, CIEN, CTAS, CLNE, CLF, CTSH, ED, CONN, CSGS, DFS, D, DRQ, EXP, EOG, EXC, FE, GES, HSII, HSIC, HOLX, HWM, NVTA, JAZZ, KLAC, LHX, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, MGY, MCHX, MTRX, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NKE, NI, NOC, OXY, PRFT, PETS, PPL, PG, RTX, ROK, ROST, R, SBH, SAND, SAIC, SRE, SHOP, SXI, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TEVA, TRV, TZOO, UGI, UNH, VLO, VECO, VC, ZBRA, IHE, FXI, MXI, SLV, EWM, EPP, PBE, PEJ, PXJ. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Furn/Home Furnishings2. Furn/Home Furnishings
3. Apparel3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Internet
5. Internet5. Apparel
6. Building Materials6. E-Commerce
7. E-Commerce7. Building Materials
8. Insurance (Life)8. IT Services
9. IT Services9. Computer Software and Svcs
10. Chemical (Specialty)10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Healthcare Information50. Advertising
51. Advertising51. Household Products
52. Metal Fabricating52. Healthcare Information
53. Household Products53. Chemical (Diversified)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Metal Fabricating
55. Air Transport55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Chemical (Diversified)56. Air Transport
57. Food Processing57. Toiletries/Cosmetics
58. Short ETFs58. Food Processing
59. Medical Supplies59. Medical Supplies
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 1/5/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AEIS, ALK, ALL, AMZN, AXP, AFG, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, ADP, AVNT, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIIB, BOOT, BFH, BCO, CBT, CE, CF, CHS, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CMTL, ED, COP, CXW, GLW, CSGS, XRAY, DVN, FANG, DFS, D, DOV, DRQ, EXP, ELV, EOG, EPAM, EFX, GNW, GPRO, HL, HSII, HP, HNI, HOLX, JBHT, HUN, HURC, IDXX, ITW, PODD, ITGR, IBKR, INTU, NVTA, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, LHX, LLY, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MTSI, M, MGY, MRO, MTDR, MTRX, MGEE, MSFT, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NKE, NOC, NWPX, OXY, OMCL, OTEX, PTEN, PEN, PCG, PXD, PLXS, RRC, RTX, RHI, ROK, RES, R, SBH, SAND, SLB, SMTC, SKX, SWN, SRDX, TFX, TXN, TMO, UHAL, VFC, VLO, VECO, VRSN, WU, WWW, ZBRA, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IGV, MXI, IEO, EWK, EWH, EWM, EPP, TUR, PXJ, PHO, XLY, XLE, XLI, XAR, UNG, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDBig M      12/14/202312/26/2023Electronics
ADBEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/29/202312/12/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ALKPipe top      12/18/202312/26/2023Air Transport
APHDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/26/2023Electronics
AMATDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/15/202312/28/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ANETDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/18/202312/26/2023E-Commerce
BAXBroadening top      12/14/202301/03/2024Medical Supplies
BIOPipe bottom      10/23/202310/30/2023Medical Supplies
BOOTHead-and-shoulders top      12/04/202312/27/2023Shoe
BBWFalling wedge      11/30/202301/04/2024Retail (Special Lines)
BLDRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/28/2023Retail Building Supply
BGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/24/202312/01/2023Food Processing
CDNSTriple top      11/30/202312/26/2023Computer Software and Svcs
CHDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/15/202312/21/2023Household Products
CLFPipe top      12/18/202312/26/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
CRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/29/202312/07/2023Diversified Co.
EXPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/20/202312/26/2023Cement and Aggregates
EPAMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/19/202312/28/2023IT Services
EFXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/18/202312/28/2023Information Services
FFIVDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/19/202312/26/2023Internet
FISDiamond top      12/27/202301/04/2024Computer Software and Svcs
FLEXDead-cat bounce      01/03/202401/03/2024Electronics
FTVDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/27/2023Industrial Services
HLHead-and-shoulders top      12/01/202312/22/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
IBKRUgly double bottom      11/29/202312/15/2023Securities Brokerage
JAZZUgly double bottom      11/28/202312/22/2023Biotechnology
KLACDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/18/202312/28/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
KSSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/28/2023Retail Store
KLICDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/26/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LXUDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/26/2023Building Materials
MLKNPipe top      12/11/202312/18/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
NOVTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/19/202312/27/2023Precision Instrument
OMCLDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/22/2023Healthcare Information
ONDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/27/2023Semiconductor
PCTYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/14/202312/28/2023E-Commerce
PYPLTriangle, symmetrical      12/14/202312/28/2023Financial Services
PFEPipe bottom      12/11/202312/18/2023Drug
PPGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/28/2023Chemical (Diversified)
PGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/15/202312/21/2023Household Products
RMBSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/14/202312/26/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RHIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/20/202312/29/2023Human Resources
RCKYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/11/202312/26/2023Shoe
SHOPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/19/202312/29/2023E-Commerce
SWXTriangle, symmetrical      12/14/202301/04/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
TPXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/29/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
TXNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/28/2023Semiconductor
TZOOBig M      12/04/202312/14/2023Internet
TWLODouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/19/202312/28/2023E-Commerce
VRSNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      12/04/202312/14/2023Internet
VMCDouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/29/2023Cement and Aggregates
WSODouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/19/202312/29/2023Retail Building Supply
WWWHead-and-shoulders top      12/04/202312/26/2023Shoe
ZBRADouble Top, Adam and Eve      12/15/202312/27/2023Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 1/4/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.2% or -173.73 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 136 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 60 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.4% on 76 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 55.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 267/477 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/157 or 47.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Let me address the big picture first. The CPI has turned bearish, reading 8.8, which is close to the lowest it can go (0). I believe the retrace that I've been looking for has begun. That means a drop to about 14,300, matching the horizontal move in the index in late November.

As to the chart, the green circle highlights weakness in the index. It has closed below the red rectangle bottom. That suggests, but does not guarantee, that the index is headed lower.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 261 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, A, AKAM, ALK, AA, AMN, APH, AMAT, ACGL, ANET, ARW, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BCO, BRKR, CBT, CDNS, CALM, CE, CX, COR, CENX, CDAY, CRL, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CGNX, ED, CSGP, COTY, CRH, CCK, CSGS, CW, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, ELV, EME, EPAM, EFX, FDS, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FTV, FWRD, FCX, IT, GD, GE, GIS, GMS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HL, HSIC, HOLX, HD, HON, JBHT, HUN, NSP, IIIN, PODD, INTC, IPAR, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KEYS, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LH, LANC, LLY, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MLM, MRK, MLKN, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NWL, NEU, NKE, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, ORI, OMCL, ON, OTEX, ORCL, OR, OMI, PKG, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PPG, PGR, PEG, PSTG, QTWO, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RNG, ROK, ROST, RGLD, R, CRM, SBH, SAND, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SHOP, SKX, SMAR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SPSC, SXI, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TFX, TPX, TER, TKR, TOL, TSCO, TREX, TWLO, UHAL, SLCA, UNH, VECO, VEEV, VC, WRB, WSO, WPM, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IHF, IAT, IEV, IGV, MXI, IXN, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWT, QLD, PBE, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XHB, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, SMH, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,508.72    
 Monthly S1  14,050.46  541.75   
 Daily S2  14,504.27  453.81   
 Daily S1  14,548.24  43.97   
 Low  14,577.44  29.20   
 Close  14,592.21  14.77   
 Monthly Pivot  14,600.27  8.06   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  14,621.41  21.14   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,622.19  0.78   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,636.01  13.82   
 Open  14,641.47  5.46   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly S1  14,648.36  6.89   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,649.83  1.47   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily R1  14,665.38  15.55   
 High  14,694.58  29.20   
 Weekly S2  14,704.52  9.94   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  14,738.55  34.03   
 Weekly R1  14,843.06  104.51   
 Weekly Pivot  14,899.22  56.15   
 Weekly R2  15,093.92  194.70   
 Monthly R1  15,142.01  48.10   
 Monthly R2  15,691.82  549.80   

Wednesday 1/3/24. 2024 Market Forecast

Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 172 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AFL, AKAM, ALKS, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AON, AAPL, ATR, ADSK, ADP, BCPC, BAX, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BRC, BBW, CDNS, CNC, CDAY, CHD, CLF, CLX, CNX, ED, COP, GLW, CSGS, CMI, DHR, DVN, DSGR, D, EXP, EIX, ELV, EME, EFX, EQT, EG, EXPI, FARO, FIS, FIVN, FORM, GIS, GILD, GMS, THG, HL, HOLX, HOV, INCY, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, JAZZ, KEYS, LHX, LRCX, LNC, LMT, MTSI, MANH, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MU, MLKN, MS, MLI, MYGN, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NOVT, OGE, ORI, OTEX, ORCL, OMI, PATK, PDCO, PETS, PCG, PNW, PRU, PHM, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RTX, ROK, CRM, SBH, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SCI, SHOP, SPSC, SRDX, SNPS, TRGP, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXT, TMO, TOL, TSCO, VMI, VECO, VRTX, WU, WMB, WSM, WSC, ZBRA, IAI, IYC, ITB, IDU, FDN, QTEC, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IEV, MXI, EWA, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EPP, EWD, EWT, EWU, IBB, DBA, PEJ, PJP, XLF, GLD, XHB, SMH, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 1/2/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -20.56 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1384 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 721 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 663 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 280/506 or 55.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Diamond top.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: A, ALRM, BCPC, BSET, BIIB, BMRN, BSX, BLDR, CAL, CPB, CNC, CNP, CHS, CLX, CNA, CL, CMTL, ED, CAG, CONN, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, DUK, EXP, EFX, EQT, EXC, EZPW, FIVN, FMC, FTV, HOV, HUM, JBHT, PODD, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IPG, NVTA, LHX, LH, LPLA, MRO, MTRX, MLKN, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NFLX, NTAP, NWPX, OMC, OTEX, ORCL, OMI, OXM, PKG, PATK, PFE, PXD, PFG, DGX, RMBS, RLI, ROK, SBH, SCHW, SRE, NOW, SHOP, SLGN, STR, SKX, SPLK, SRDX, SNPS, TFX, UIS, UPS, VMC, WSC, XEL, ZBRA, IAI, IEZ, ICF, IGV, MXI, EWQ, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, IBB, PBE, PXJ, ROBO, XLY, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  34,418.04    
 Monthly S1  36,053.79  1,635.75   
 Monthly Pivot  36,916.32  862.53   
 Weekly S2  37,206.39  290.07   
 Daily S2  37,441.96  235.57   
 Weekly S1  37,447.96  6.00   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  37,538.80  90.84   
 Daily S1  37,565.75  26.95   
 Weekly Pivot  37,613.41  47.66   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  37,623.08  9.68   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  37,649.11  26.03   
 Daily Pivot  37,662.59  13.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  37,675.15  12.56   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  37,689.54  14.39   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  37,701.63  12.09   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  37,759.43  57.80   
 Daily R1  37,786.38  26.95   
 Weekly R1  37,854.98  68.61   
 Daily R2  37,883.22  28.23   
 Weekly R2  38,020.43  137.21   
 Monthly R1  38,552.07  531.64   
 Monthly R2  39,414.60  862.53   

 

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