Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024

March 2024 Headlines

Archives


Friday 3/29/24. Help!

Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

I need some social media buzz, and I'm hoping you can provide it.

My latest book (Invest for Two-Comma Wealth, pictured on the right) is self-published (does not use a traditional publisher) and struggling to reach its intended audience. Here's how you can help.

If you have a blog or use social media such as X/twitter or meta/facebook, could you post a note saying the book is available?

Maybe say something like, "Thomas Bulkowski has released a new book titled, Invest for Two-Comma wealth. It's an entry-level yet comprehensive book about investing in the securities markets to grow your net worth. It's available for $20 at Amazon.com."

If you want to say more about the book, you can visit Amazon.com's detail page here and use the text and book image.

If you do post a note, then let me know at email

Thanks!

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, A, ALK, ALGT, AMED, AEL, ANIK, AR, APA, ARCB, ARW, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BA, BAH, BRC, BCO, CPB, CLS, COR, CLF, CNA, CNX, CAG, CONN, XRAY, DVN, DSGR, EIX, EOG, EQT, EG, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FARO, FDX, FIS, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GME, IT, GIS, GGG, HBI, THG, HLIT, HP, HOV, ILMN, IPI, JNJ, KBH, K, KSS, LZB, LEG, LEN, L, MHO, MRO, MDC, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEU, NEE, NI, NOC, NUS, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PCTY, PFE, PCG, PXD, PPL, PFG, PGR, PSTG, DGX, RGS, ROP, R, SAND, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SMAR, SCCO, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TDC, TTD, TDG, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, UIS, VFC, WRB, WPM, WSC, WOLF, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IAT, IGE, IYF, ECH, EWW, EWD, EWL, EWU, IBB, PXJ, GLD, UNG, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 3/28/24. Ethereum Review

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.5% or 83.82 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 589 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 192 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 67.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 274/484 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum.

$ $ $

The chart shows Ethereum on the daily scale.

After making a strong push higher from the low at A to the peak at B, the cryptocurrency retraced to C. That's what I've expected to see happen in the major indices (Dow industrials, Nasdaq, and so on), but those are stubborn and haven't complied.

The currency has climbed from C to approach what I believe will be a peak at D. The D peak will likely remain below the top at B, so watch for that. After peaking, I expect it to drop, as the green line shows.

$ $ $

I added a trading lesson to cup with handle patterns. I found price retraces 47% of the time after a breakout, dropping substantially. That's something traders should know. The link will take you there for your viewing pleasure. Smiley

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 183 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AES, AKAM, ALK, ALGT, AXP, AR, ARCB, ASH, AGO, BAX, BIG, BMRN, BA, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CNP, CNX, CL, ED, CONN, COP, GLW, COTY, CRH, CCK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJI, DRQ, DTE, ELV, WIRE, EQT, EVRG, EVH, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FARO, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, GPN, GFS, THG, HLIT, HELE, HNI, HON, HOV, HUN, IDA, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, ITGR, KALU, KELYA, KSS, LH, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LNC, MGY, MRO, MTRN, MRK, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEE, NKE, NI, NVDA, OGE, ORI, OMC, OTEX, PANW, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PXD, PLXS, POR, PPL, PSTG, RRC, RLI, RCKY, ROP, R, SLB, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SMAR, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, SPSC, SUM, TPR, TGT, TTD, TMO, TJX, TZOO, UHAL, UIS, VMI, VECO, VRTX, VC, WRB, WSO, WEX, WPM, WOLF, IYK, IYE, IEZ, DDM, QTEC, ICF, IHF, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWP, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLE, XLK, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,042.80    
 Weekly S2  15,709.75  666.95   
 Monthly S1  15,721.16  11.41   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  16,054.63  333.47   
 Monthly Pivot  16,130.01  75.38   
 Daily S2  16,217.52  87.51   
 Low  16,279.17  61.65   
 Weekly Pivot  16,296.75  17.58   
 Daily S1  16,308.52  11.77   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,337.48  28.96   
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,355.50  18.01   
 Daily Pivot  16,370.17  14.67   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,373.51  3.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  16,399.52  26.01   
 Open  16,424.76  25.24   
 High  16,431.82  7.06   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  16,461.17  29.35   
 Daily R2  16,522.82  61.65   
 Weekly R1  16,641.63  118.81   
 Monthly R1  16,808.37  166.74   
 Weekly R2  16,883.75  75.38   
 Monthly R2  17,217.22  333.47   

Wednesday 3/27/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This is a broken record, but I'm still waiting for the indices to make a big retrace. They are overdue.

The CPI shows a neutral rating. Using the right scale, I'm looking for a retrace back to 288 (about the level of early January).

I'm not saying the retrace has begun. I've been waiting for it for a few months now and it hasn't happened. Plus, I don't know if it'll really drop that far.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 22% on 03/21/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 12% on 03/21/2024.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

Both lines show no change from a week ago.

The overall trend, however, is upward from the November low.

Unless something changes, I expect the uptrend to continue. Just keep in mind that a retrace can begin at any time.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AES, ALGT, AEL, AXP, AR, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, ASH, BMI, BIG, BIO, BKH, BA, CLS, CX, COR, CVX, CNX, CMTL, CAG, CONN, XRAY, FANG, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EQT, EVH, XOM, FICO, FARO, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FTNT, FCX, GNW, GFS, GL, GPRO, HLIT, HELE, HP, HD, HOV, ILMN, INCY, INFN, ITGR, TILE, JBLU, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LPLA, LXU, MTSI, MANH, MKTX, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NOVT, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PXD, PFG, PEG, PSTG, QTWO, RRC, RTX, ROP, RGLD, RES, SLB, STR, SMAR, SCCO, LUV, SSYS, SUM, TGT, TDOC, TER, TXN, TTD, RIG, TZOO, TREX, TWLO, UIS, UPS, VECO, WRB, WOLF, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FXI, QQQ, IYH, IYZ, IXC, MXI, IXN, IEO, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWG, EZA, QLD, SSO, ROBO, XLE, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Tuesday 3/26/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.4% or -162.26 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 951 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 481 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 470 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 284/515 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/113 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring ascending broadening wedges.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, A, ALL, DOX, AEP, AME, AMN, APH, ATR, ARW, ATO, ADP, BMI, BAX, BIIB, BKH, BKNG, BFH, BR, BBW, CPB, CX, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHD, CNX, CL, COTY, XRAY, FANG, DFS, DSGR, DRQ, EBAY, ECL, EIX, EL, EVRG, EXPI, XOM, FARO, FDX, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FTV, FNV, IT, GMS, GPRO, HE, HQY, HP, HWM, HUM, JBHT, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, JBLU, KALU, KFRC, LHX, LANC, MHO, MRCY, MGEE, MCO, MS, MUR, NJR, NEU, NKE, NVDA, OMC, OMI, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PEN, PXD, PSTG, RL, RRC, RJF, RGS, RHI, ROST, CRM, SBH, SEE, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, TGT, TFX, TTD, TKR, TJX, TZOO, TREX, VRSN, WAT, WERN, ZBRA, IYC, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWH, THD, PPA, DBA, XLF. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,629.95    
 Weekly S2  38,192.90  562.95   
 Monthly S1  38,471.80  278.90   
 Weekly S1  38,753.27  281.47   
 Monthly Pivot  39,180.42  427.15   
 Daily S2  39,212.47  32.05   
 Daily S1  39,263.05  50.58   
 Low  39,296.03  32.98   
 Close  39,313.64  17.61   
 Weekly Pivot  39,321.16  7.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  39,346.61  25.45   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  39,347.27  0.66   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,363.10  15.83   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,378.93  15.83   
 Daily R1  39,397.20  18.27   
 Open  39,410.54  13.34   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  39,430.17  19.63   
 Daily R2  39,480.75  50.58   
 Weekly R1  39,881.53  400.78   
 Monthly R1  40,022.27  140.73   
 Weekly R2  40,449.42  427.16   
 Monthly R2  40,730.89  281.47   

Monday 3/25/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The chart doesn't show much happening. Indeed, the recent price movement has formed a rectangle top chart pattern.

That pattern sees price swing between the top and bottom of the rectangle, shown here by the two red lines.

Rectangle tops, according to the statistics, breakout upward 63% of the time. So that's the way to bet.

That's potentially good news for airline and other transport stocks.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 75.66 points.
Tuesday: Up 320.33 points.
Wednesday: Up 401.37 points.
Thursday: Up 269.24 points.
Friday: Down 305.47 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 761.13 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 455.65 points or 2.9%.
The S&P 500 index was up 117.09 points or 2.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.0% down from the high of 39,889.05 on 03/21/2024.
     6.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.7% down from the high of 16,538.86 on 03/21/2024.
     13.5% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.5% down from the high of 5,261.10 on 03/21/2024.
     11.8% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  39,235  39,355  39,590  39,711  39,945 
Weekly  38,247  38,861  39,375  39,990  40,504 
Monthly  37,684  38,580  39,235  40,130  40,785 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,220  5,227  5,237  5,244  5,253 
Weekly  5,079  5,157  5,209  5,286  5,338 
Monthly  4,832  5,033  5,147  5,348  5,462 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  16,313  16,371  16,419  16,477  16,526 
Weekly  15,720  16,074  16,307  16,661  16,894 
Monthly  15,053  15,741  16,140  16,828  17,227 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 189 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, ACN, ACIW, A, DOX, AEP, AFG, AIG, AME, AMN, APH, ATR, ATO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BSET, BAX, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIIB, BAH, BFH, BR, CACI, CALM, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CF, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CLF, CLX, CXW, CSGP, CCK, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DSGR, DUK, EBAY, EIX, ELV, EOG, EL, EVRG, EXC, EXPD, FDS, FARO, FDX, FMC, FTV, FCX, GME, IT, GPN, GL, GMS, GPRO, GFF, HE, HQY, HSII, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HWM, JBHT, IDA, ITW, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, KFRC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, L, MHO, MGY, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MDC, MRCY, MCO, MS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NTAP, NOVT, OXY, ORI, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PEN, PETS, PFG, RL, RTX, RHI, R, CRM, SAIC, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SHW, SO, SSYS, TFX, TPX, TKR, RIG, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, UIS, VRSN, WRB, WAT, WSO, WERN, IEZ, IAT, IYZ, IYF, THD, PPA, DBA, PXJ, XLF, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Apparel
2. Shoe2. Shoe
3. Semiconductor3. Retail (Special Lines)
4. Retail (Special Lines)4. Semiconductor
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Furn/Home Furnishings
6. Homebuilding6. Cement and Aggregates
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Homebuilding
9. Building Materials9. Building Materials
10. Retail Building Supply10. Retail Store
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Air Transport
51. Petroleum (Integrated)51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Food Processing52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Food Processing
55. Medical Services55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Toiletries/Cosmetics
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Short ETFs
60. Short ETFs60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Saturday Supplement 3/19/24. Invest for Two-Comma Wealth

Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

If you're new to trading stocks, then consider buying a copy of my latest book, Invest for Two-Comma Wealth. I focus on investing and not trading. That's important. You can do both (invest and trade). Why not invest (buy and hold) and grow your net worth while you learn to trade? That's a type of diversification.

That reasoning also applies to traders who struggle to become profitable. You can buy an ETF like the QQQs while you trade to your heart's content.

If you're a seasoned trader, build your portfolio by investing in long-term hold securities (ETFs are my favorite).

Investing instead of trading removes the stress and the time-consuming day-to-day grind of watching price move up and down. Buy the QQQs and look at them once a quarter or year (or whatever). Wouldn't you like to become wealthy without the worry and stress of trading?

For those of you in retirement or approaching retirement. The actions you take before retirement can influence how much money you'll be taxed in retirement. I'm talking about IRMAA and NIIT. If you don't know what they are, then buy the book. The amount you may save is well worth the cost of the $20 book. You'll want to transition from owning individual stocks to ETFs or mutual funds so you can avoid single stock risk. That's important for both retirees and novices.

Click the link to start building your net worth. Buy Invest for Two-Comma Wealth.

Price $20, soft cover, print only, 300+ pages.

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Friday 3/22/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 194 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, AFL, APD, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AEE, AEO, AXP, AFG, APH, APA, APOG, ASH, AVA, BAX, BZH, BBY, BAH, BFH, BCO, BMY, BRKR, BLDR, CDNS, CALM, CPB, CX, CNP, CDAY, CF, CRL, CLF, CLX, CNO, CL, GLW, COTY, CR, CROX, DECK, DVN, DSGR, ^DJI, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EZPW, FARO, FAST, FISV, GFS, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, GES, HBI, THG, HAYN, HP, HSIC, HNI, HD, DHI, JBHT, HURC, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, IRM, JBLU, K, KFRC, LEN, LNC, LOW, MHO, MGY, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NTGR, NEE, NOC, NWPX, ORI, PKE, PRFT, PETS, PPL, PFG, QTWO, RL, RJF, REGN, ROL, ^GSPC, CRM, SAND, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SEE, SO, SCCO, SWX, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TER, TXT, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UIS, VC, WSO, WU, WPM, WSM, IAI, IYC, ITB, IEZ, DDM, FDN, IGV, IXC, ILF, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, TUR, PPA, PBE, PEJ, SSO, XLY, XLF, XHB, XLI, SPY, XLK, VIS, VAW, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/04/202403/07/2024IT Services
ACIWTriangle, symmetrical      02/28/202403/19/2024IT Services
DOXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/08/202403/14/2024IT Services
AMWDTriple bottom      03/05/202403/14/2024Building Materials
AMNUgly double bottom      02/26/202403/15/2024Human Resources
APATriple bottom      02/05/202402/23/2024Petroleum (Producing)
BKNGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      03/06/202403/15/2024Internet
BAHDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/26/202403/04/2024IT Services
BBWFlag      03/15/202403/21/2024Retail (Special Lines)
CIENPipe top      02/26/202403/04/2024Telecom. Equipment
CLXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/02/202403/13/2024Household Products
CNXUgly double bottom      02/14/202403/12/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
GLWTriangle, symmetrical      01/23/202403/21/2024Telecom. Equipment
CSGPUgly double bottom      02/20/202403/07/2024Information Services
CTSTriangle, descending      02/13/202403/20/2024Electronics
DSGRPipe bottom      03/04/202403/11/2024Metal Fabricating
EPAMTriple top      02/16/202403/08/2024IT Services
EXPIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/29/202403/08/2024E-Commerce
FDSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/02/202403/20/2024Information Services
GSRoof, inverted      02/22/202403/20/2024Securities Brokerage
HUNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/23/202403/07/2024Chemical (Specialty)
INCYHead-and-shoulders top      02/13/202403/11/2024Drug
IIINDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/05/202403/14/2024Building Materials
JNJTriple top      02/23/202403/12/2024Medical Supplies
KMTBroadening bottom      02/07/202403/19/2024Metal Fabricating
LHXDiamond top      02/20/202403/14/2024Aerospace/Defense
MRCYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/14/202403/11/2024Computers and Peripherals
MLKNRoof, inverted      02/27/202403/21/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
MOSTriangle, ascending      02/22/202403/21/2024Chemical (Diversified)
NTGRPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Telecom. Equipment
JWNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      03/07/202403/18/2024Retail Store
ONDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/12/202403/07/2024Semiconductor
OTEXHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/21/202403/19/2024E-Commerce
KWRTriangle, symmetrical      02/13/202403/19/2024Chemical (Specialty)
RLPipe bottom      03/04/202403/11/2024Apparel
SCSScallop, descending      02/29/202403/20/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
UHALTriangle, symmetrical      01/31/202403/20/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing

 

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Thursday 3/21/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.3% or 202.62 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 171 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 109 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 62 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 273/483 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 76/162 or 46.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is a complicated chart, so let's go through it from left to right.

We see a double bottom Monday and Tuesday. After it confirmed (that is, after price closed above the peak between the two bottoms), the index made a good move higher to the triple top.

The triple top is a three peak pattern, with all three peaks near the same price. You might want to label this a head-and-shoulders top. Often with triple tops, the center peak is slightly below the other two (but not in this case).

Regardless of what you call this pattern, it's bearish and down the index tumbles.

There's a triple bottom, which I didn't call out, on Friday to Tuesday. I do show the results of the market reaction after the FED meeting.

Such a strong move higher suggests to me that the market will retrace (some of the move up) tomorrow (Thursday). After that, it'll probably resume going higher.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, AMD, AFL, APD, DOX, AEL, APH, AR, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, BALL, BAX, BZH, BBY, BOOT, BAH, BR, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CPB, CENX, CTAS, CNO, CNX, CMCO, GLW, CROX, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DVN, DDS, DSGR, ^DJI, DRQ, DUK, EXP, ELV, EOG, EFX, FFIV, FDS, FDX, FNV, FRD, GME, GMS, GS, GPRO, GES, THG, HLIT, HAYN, HP, HON, IDA, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, KBH, KMT, KFRC, LEG, LEN, LNC, MHO, MAN, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MUR, MYGN, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NKE, JWN, ASGN, OXM, PKE, PHM, QCOM, RL, RRC, RGA, RHI, ROL, R, SAND, SEE, SCI, SLGN, SWX, SWN, SR, TPX, TTD, TOL, RIG, TZOO, UIS, MDRX, VC, WRB, WMT, WU, WSC, IYC, IEZ, DDM, FDN, IAT, IEV, ILF, SLV, EWK, EWQ, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, XLY, XRT, XLK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,092.20    
 Monthly S1  15,730.81  638.60   
 Weekly S2  15,840.72  109.91   
 Daily S2  16,041.48  200.77   
 Monthly Pivot  16,090.25  48.77   
 Weekly S1  16,105.06  14.81   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Low  16,127.48  22.42   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  16,185.76  58.28   
 Weekly Pivot  16,190.26  4.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Daily S1  16,205.45  15.19   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,222.96  17.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,252.46  29.50   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,281.96  29.50   
 Daily Pivot  16,291.44  9.49   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  16,369.41  77.97   
 High  16,377.44  8.03   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  16,454.60  77.16   
 Daily R1  16,455.41  0.80   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  16,539.80  84.39   
 Daily R2  16,541.40  1.61   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  16,728.86  187.46   
 Monthly R2  17,088.30  359.45   

Wednesday 3/20/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is in the neutral zone, as the white vertical bars on the far right of the chart shows.

It means the index is moving sideways, looking for a direction. It could be that the market was waiting for the FED to keep interest rates the same. I see that the markets closed up today (Tuesday). It's a two-day meeting so we'll see tomorrow.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 23%.
The fewest was 22% on 03/11/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 514 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 13% on 03/07/2024.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

The red line is worse this week compared to a week ago, but the blue line held steady.

This past week the red line made a new high (the highest peak on the chart). It's about time. That's quite a recovery from the October 2023 low.

What does this all mean? I'm not sure. Both charts are neutral, I think. The CPI chart is showing weakness (no longer bullish). This chart shows the red line trending higher over the past year. Let's see what the FED says.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AMD, AFL, APD, ATSG, AKAM, AMZN, AMED, AMWD, APOG, AGO, BCPC, BAX, BIO, CBT, CAL, CVX, CLF, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, CXW, CW, DVN, FANG, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, BOOM, EMN, EBAY, EMR, FAST, FORM, GME, GD, GFS, HAYN, HL, HP, HNI, HD, HOV, HUN, IDA, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IPG, IPI, KALU, KBH, KFRC, KLAC, LEG, LDOS, LXU, M, MLM, MTDR, MTRN, MDC, MRK, NBR, NOV, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NWPX, ASGN, PATK, PRFT, PCG, PEG, RL, RMBS, RRC, RTX, RGLD, RES, SLB, SEE, SCI, SKYW, SWX, SUM, TDC, TXN, RIG, TZOO, TG, UHAL, WRB, WU, IHE, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, EEM, EWH, EWY, EWL, THD, PPA, PBE, PJP, SSO, XLE, SPY, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Tuesday 3/19/24. Invest for Two-Comma Wealth Book Available

Picture of 'Invest for two-comma wealth' book.

I released a new stock market book titled, Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad). It's available from Amazon.com at the link.

Invest for Two-Comma Wealth ($1,000,000) is an entry-level yet comprehensive book about investing in the securities markets to grow your net worth. From annuities, bonds, and CDs, to common stocks, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency, the book explains each topic in an easy-to-understand manner.

It teaches you about scams, and how to avoid them, including those “free” lunch seminars that try to sell you something, either immediately or months later. It explains why owning your home may not be a good investment and buying gold coins with huge sales charges put you at a disadvantage.

Follow Susan as she does everything right and Basketcase Bob who serves as an example of what not to do.

If knowledge is the way to wealth, then this book is for you. Use the information in this book to invest for the long term and discover that one day you’ve joined the two-comma club.

Price $20, soft cover, print only, 300+ pages.

Here's an abbreviated list of contents.

-- Thomas Bulkowski, author: Invest for Two-Comma Wealth (Ad)

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Monday 3/18/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

A double bottom appears at AB. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the red line, which connects the highest peak between the two bottoms.

When confirmed, it becomes a valid chart pattern, suggesting a rise in price.

However, I'm looking for the index to retrace following the green line. This idea is to form a complex head-and-shoulders bottom, with two heads at AB, a left shoulder during the January low, and a new right shoulder yet to appear (D).

I don't know if this will play out, but it's worth watching.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 46.97 points.
Tuesday: Up 235.83 points.
Wednesday: Up 37.83 points.
Thursday: Down 137.66 points.
Friday: Down 190.89 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 7.92 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 111.94 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 6.6 points or 0.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.4% down from the high of 39,282.28 on 02/23/2024.
     4.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     2.9% down from the high of 16,449.70 on 03/08/2024.
     10.3% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     1.4% down from the high of 5,189.26 on 03/08/2024.
     9.3% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,444  38,579  38,754  38,889  39,064 
Weekly  38,081  38,398  38,800  39,117  39,519 
Monthly  37,437  38,076  38,679  39,318  39,921 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,087  5,102  5,119  5,135  5,152 
Weekly  5,041  5,079  5,129  5,168  5,218 
Monthly  4,807  4,962  5,076  5,231  5,345 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,855  15,914  15,985  16,044  16,114 
Weekly  15,709  15,841  16,058  16,190  16,408 
Monthly  14,960  15,467  15,958  16,465  16,956 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ABM, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AFL, ALB, AA, ALL, DOX, AMED, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APOG, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ASH, AIZ, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIG, BR, BG, CAL, CPB, CX, CIEN, CSCO, CNO, CNX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, ED, CSGP, CW, DFS, DRQ, EMN, ECL, WIRE, EVRG, FLEX, FTNT, FDP, GIS, GNW, GMS, GS, HLIT, HIG, HQY, HP, HSIC, HOLX, HWM, JBHT, IDA, ITW, IIIN, IPAR, JKHY, KALU, KFRC, LNC, LXU, MCHX, MTRX, MU, MLKN, MOS, MLI, NOV, NFLX, NWL, NOC, NWPX, NUS, ORI, OLN, OMCL, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PEN, PLXS, PFG, PRU, RJF, RTX, RGA, RLI, ROL, RES, CRM, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEE, SEIC, STR, SMAR, SCCO, SPLK, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TECH, TDY, TKR, TSCO, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, VFC, VLO, VECO, MDRX, VRTX, WRB, WMT, WAT, WLK, WMB, WWW, WWD, ZBRA, IYC, IHE, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWK, EEM, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWL, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, XLY, XLF. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Apparel1. Shoe
2. Shoe2. Apparel
3. Retail (Special Lines)3. Semiconductor
4. Semiconductor4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
6. Cement and Aggregates6. Cement and Aggregates
7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.7. Homebuilding
8. Homebuilding8. Building Materials
9. Building Materials9. Retail (Special Lines)
10. Retail Store10. Telecom. Equipment
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Air Transport50. Natural Gas (Distributor)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Medical Services
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Air Transport
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Natural Gas (Diversified)
54. Food Processing54. Food Processing
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Toiletries/Cosmetics
56. Toiletries/Cosmetics56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Petroleum (Integrated)
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/15/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AES, ALB, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AIG, AMWD, AMN, APH, AAPL, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BSET, BIG, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CX, CNC, CDAY, CF, CRL, CIEN, CSCO, CNX, CTSH, CMCO, CONN, COP, CXW, DFS, EMN, WIRE, EFX, EXC, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FORM, IT, GMS, GS, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HNI, JBHT, HUN, ITW, PODD, TILE, IPI, IRM, JKHY, KMT, KFRC, LHX, LAMR, LEG, LPLA, MCHX, MKTX, MRTN, MA, MDT, META, NKE, NUS, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PEN, PETS, PHM, RTX, RGS, ROK, ROP, ROST, R, SLB, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SWX, SPLK, SCS, SRDX, TDY, TFX, TDC, TTD, TKR, UPS, VFC, VLO, VECO, VEEV, MDRX, VRTX, V, VMC, WMT, WSO, WSC, WWD, IYK, IYC, IDU, IEO, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWS, EWY, TUR, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PHO, XLY, XLF, XLI, XAR, USO, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/20/202403/04/2024Diversified Co.
ADBEDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/20/202403/06/2024Computer Software and Svcs
ALKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/04/202403/11/2024Air Transport
AZTADouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/04/202403/08/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BECNDiamond top      02/14/202403/14/2024Retail Building Supply
BERYUgly double bottom      02/07/202402/28/2024Packaging and Container
BIGPipe top      02/26/202403/04/2024Retail Store
BKHDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/19/202402/07/2024Electric Utility (West)
CNPHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (Central)
CSCODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/20/202403/01/2024Computers and Peripherals
CLFHead-and-shoulders top      03/01/202403/13/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/18/202402/14/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
CMTLDead-cat bounce      03/13/202403/13/2024Telecom. Equipment
CSGSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/12/202402/28/2024IT Services
^DJUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/13/202403/01/2024None
^DJTTriangle, symmetrical      02/20/202403/11/2024None
EFXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/29/202403/08/2024Information Services
FICODouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/09/202403/08/2024IT Services
FAROTriple top      01/30/202402/28/2024Precision Instrument
FLSTriangle, symmetrical      02/16/202403/05/2024Machinery
GMEBroadening top, right-angled and descending      01/17/202402/26/2024Retail (Special Lines)
HUBGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/26/202301/23/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCDead-cat bounce      03/08/202403/08/2024Machinery
IDADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/14/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (West)
IDXXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/06/202403/01/2024Drug
IPGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/09/202403/01/2024Advertising
KFRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/04/202403/08/2024Human Resources
KMBBroadening bottom      12/13/202303/13/2024Household Products
MDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/19/202402/29/2024Retail Store
MROTriple bottom      01/18/202402/13/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
MLIDiamond top      02/27/202403/13/2024Metal Fabricating
NBRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/05/202402/13/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
^IXICDiamond top      02/23/202403/14/2024None
NOCTriangle, descending      02/26/202403/14/2024Aerospace/Defense
OLNTriple bottom      02/05/202402/20/2024Chemical (Basic)
OMCPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Advertising
PTENDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/16/202403/08/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PORHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (West)
PRUTriangle, symmetrical      02/15/202403/01/2024Insurance (Life)
QCOMPipe bottom      01/29/202402/05/2024Telecom. Equipment
ROPTriangle, symmetrical      01/30/202403/14/2024Industrial Services
SLBHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/30/202402/28/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SREHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/24/202403/04/2024Electric Utility (West)
STRUgly double bottom      02/05/202402/23/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
LUVTriple top      02/22/202403/08/2024Air Transport
TPXBroadening top      02/29/202403/13/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
RIGPipe bottom      02/20/202402/26/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TREXDiamond top      03/04/202403/14/2024Building Materials
VECOPipe top      02/26/202403/04/2024Precision Instrument
WPMPipe bottom      02/20/202402/26/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

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Thursday 3/14/24. Ethereum (ETH-USD)

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.5% or -87.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 372 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 183 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 189 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 50.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 273/483 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/161 or 46.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the ethereum on the weekly scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Ethereum (ETH-USD) on the weekly scale.

Ethereum is a cryptocurrency. A rising wedge appears highlighted in green on the chart. Those breakout downward most often. In this case, the breakout was upward and it led to a strong rally.

I drew a red line from the current price backward in time to the left, just so I could see where it lines up with overhead resistance (circled in red). The crypto is right in the middle of resistance. That means the upward run could stall, even reverse.

However, the trend upward over the last two weeks or so is strong. It might continue. I'd like to say that the rally is overextended, and it is, but these upward runs can last longer than we imagine.

So, yes, I think the upward move will continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABM, AXDX, ADTN, AES, ATSG, ALB, ALGT, AEP, AEL, AMWD, APA, ADSK, AVY, AVA, BAX, BZH, BIG, BIO, BA, BSX, BFH, CDNS, CX, CDAY, CF, CRL, CVX, CIEN, CMTL, COP, CROX, DVN, FANG, DDS, DSGR, DOV, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EXC, FIVN, FTNT, FCX, GPS, GNW, GL, GFF, GES, HE, HP, DHI, PODD, IPG, JAZZ, KMB, LHX, LEN, MGY, MRO, MCHX, MTDR, MTRX, MDT, MUR, NOV, NEE, NTNX, OXY, ASGN, ORCL, PATK, PEN, PETS, PINC, PSTG, KWR, RCKY, ROG, ROP, ROST, RES, SBH, SAND, SLB, SEE, STR, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SPLK, SRDX, TRGP, TFX, RIG, UPS, UNH, VLO, VECO, MDRX, WRB, WU, WSM, WWW, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IEV, IXC, MXI, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, PXJ, XLE, XLB, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,028.32    
 Weekly S2  15,576.30  547.97   
 Monthly S1  15,603.05  26.75   
 Weekly S1  15,877.03  273.99   
 Monthly Pivot  16,026.37  149.34   
 Daily S2  16,094.84  68.47   
 Daily S1  16,136.31  41.46   
 Low  16,143.34  7.03   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  16,163.37  20.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,177.71  14.34   
 Close  16,177.77  0.06   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  16,184.80  7.03   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,188.32  3.52   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,198.94  10.62   
 Open  16,220.11  21.17   
 Daily R1  16,226.27  6.16   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  16,233.30  7.03   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  16,274.76  41.46   
 Weekly R1  16,464.10  189.34   
 Monthly R1  16,601.10  136.99   
 Weekly R2  16,750.44  149.34   
 Monthly R2  17,024.42  273.99   

Wednesday 3/13/24. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This week the charts are a little confusing.

Even though the indices made a big move today (Dow industrials up 235 points, Nasdaq up 246), the CPI fell. That's quite a drop.

There's also bearish divergence where the CPI has been trending lower even as the index rises. Of course, you can argue that the two have been diverging for months now. It suggests the index is going to retrace but it doesn't tell when. Indeed, it might not happen at all or the drop may not be significant.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 22% on 03/11/2024.
And the most was 56% on 10/27/2023.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 516 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 13% on 03/07/2024.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/27/2023.

This chart shows the red line drops today, which is weird given that the indices climbed.

Both red and blue lines show improvement this week.

The prior chart is bearish (the divergence forecasts a downturn) but this chart is bullish. Of the two charts, the CPI is more important. I guess what we can say is that the trend will end when it ends.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ADTN, AEIS, ATSG, ALRM, ALB, AXP, AMWD, APH, APA, ADM, ANET, BERY, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BA, BMY, BRKR, CAL, CX, CNC, CENX, CIEN, CLNE, CLX, CL, COTY, DECK, XRAY, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EQT, EXPD, EZPW, FE, FLEX, FDP, GME, GD, GOOGL, GFF, HE, HUBG, ILMN, NSP, PODD, IPAR, IPG, JKHY, JBLU, KBH, KEYS, LNC, LXU, MCHX, META, MOS, MYGN, NFLX, NEU, NWPX, ORCL, PKE, PATK, PETS, PLXS, PINC, CRM, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SKX, SWN, SRDX, TTD, TOL, UHAL, VECO, MDRX, VRTX, WRB, WU, WSC, IYK, IEZ, DDM, FXI, IGV, IXC, MXI, IEO, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PHO, XLI. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/12/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 46.97 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1410 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 724 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 686 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/513 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 54/113 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring broadening formation, right angled and ascending.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AFL, ATSG, ALK, AA, AFG, AIG, APH, APA, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ANET, ARW, BBY, BIG, BIO, BA, BMY, BR, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CDNS, CPB, CX, CNP, CI, CLNE, CL, CMTL, COST, CCK, CW, DFS, DOV, EPAM, EQT, EXC, EXPD, FFIV, FISV, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FORM, FCX, FRD, GPS, GIS, GNW, GFS, GGG, HE, HSIC, HSY, HON, DHI, HOV, HWM, HUM, HURC, IDXX, NSP, ITGR, JBLU, KALU, KEYS, LH, L, MTSI, MCHX, MAS, MDT, MRK, MU, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NTGR, NJR, NI, JWN, NUS, NVDA, ORI, ORCL, PKE, PEN, PFE, PPL, PRU, KWR, DGX, RL, RMBS, RGS, RGA, RNG, ROP, RES, ^GSPC, SAND, SLB, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SKYW, SO, LUV, SR, SPSC, SRDX, TRGP, TDOC, TPX, RIG, TRV, TREX, UGI, MDRX, VRTX, WRB, WEX, WPM, WSC, WOLF, XEL, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IHF, IXC, IXN, ILF, SOXX, IYF, EWO, EWZ, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, QLD, PPA, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PHO, SSO, XLE, XHB, XLI, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH, VIS, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,454.85    
 Monthly S1  38,112.25  657.41   
 Weekly S2  38,141.75  29.50   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  38,371.05  229.29   
 Weekly S1  38,455.71  84.66   
 Low  38,483.25  27.54   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  38,570.35  87.10   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,602.25  31.89   
 50% Down from Intraday High  38,639.00  36.76   
 Open  38,667.21  28.21   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  38,675.76  8.55   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  38,682.56  6.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  38,697.27  14.71   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  38,769.66  72.39   
 Weekly Pivot  38,771.79  2.13   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  38,794.76  22.98   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  38,881.86  87.10   
 Daily R2  38,994.07  112.20   
 Weekly R1  39,085.74  91.67   
 Monthly R1  39,354.67  268.93   
 Weekly R2  39,401.81  47.14   
 Monthly R2  39,939.69  537.88   

Monday 3/11/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the monthly scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the monthly scale, for a change. The daily chart shows the index climbing in a straight-line run.

I picked this scale to show something interesting.

A nicely-shaped broadening top chart pattern appears on the chart highlight in red. A nice up move happened after the pattern completed.

Recently, we see a new chart pattern called a measured move up. That's the move from B to C (wherever it tops out) with a corrective phase A.

I expect the index to retrace back to somewhere between the two green lines (C) but don't know when it might happen. Of course, it might not happen at all but the stats say it will.

Sometime . . .

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 97.55 points.
Tuesday: Down 404.64 points.
Wednesday: Up 75.86 points.
Thursday: Up 130.3 points.
Friday: Down 68.66 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 364.69 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 189.83 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 13.39 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.4% down from the high of 39,282.28 on 02/23/2024.
     4.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     2.2% down from the high of 16,449.70 on 03/08/2024.
     11.1% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     1.3% down from the high of 5,189.26 on 03/08/2024.
     9.4% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,534  38,628  38,800  38,894  39,066 
Weekly  38,126  38,424  38,756  39,054  39,386 
Monthly  37,439  38,081  38,682  39,323  39,924 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,072  5,098  5,143  5,169  5,215 
Weekly  4,991  5,057  5,123  5,190  5,256 
Monthly  4,806  4,965  5,077  5,236  5,348 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,808  15,947  16,198  16,337  16,588 
Weekly  15,545  15,815  16,132  16,402  16,720 
Monthly  14,997  15,541  15,995  16,539  16,994 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 173 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, A, ATSG, ALK, ALB, ALKS, AEL, APH, APA, ATR, ARCB, ADM, ANET, ASH, BMI, BIG, BOOT, BRC, BR, BLDR, BG, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CF, CRL, CSCO, CLF, CL, COP, COTY, CROX, CCK, CW, ^DJT, DOV, DUK, EPAM, EL, EXPD, FICO, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GPS, GE, GIS, GGG, HAYN, HSII, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HON, DHI, HOV, HWM, HURC, ITGR, INTC, JBLU, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, LEG, LEN, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MU, MOS, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NWPX, NVDA, ASGN, OXM, PEN, PRFT, PEG, RL, RMBS, REGN, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SAND, SMG, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SKYW, SMAR, SO, LUV, SPLK, SPSC, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TDY, TPX, TER, TXT, RIG, TREX, TWLO, WAT, WLK, WPM, WOLF, WWD, ITB, FTEC, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, QQQ, IGV, MXI, IXN, ILF, SOXX, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, QLD, PPA, PXJ, PHO, SSO, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VIS, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Shoe
2. Apparel2. Apparel
3. Semiconductor3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Semiconductor Cap Equip.5. Semiconductor
6. Cement and Aggregates6. Homebuilding
7. Homebuilding7. Retail (Special Lines)
8. Building Materials8. Cement and Aggregates
9. Retail (Special Lines)9. Building Materials
10. Telecom. Equipment10. E-Commerce
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Natural Gas (Distributor)50. Petroleum (Integrated)
51. Medical Services51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Air Transport52. Electric Utility (East)
53. Natural Gas (Diversified)53. Food Processing
54. Food Processing54. Toiletries/Cosmetics
55. Toiletries/Cosmetics55. Air Transport
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Natural Gas (Diversified)
57. Petroleum (Integrated)57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Short ETFs59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/8/24. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 153 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AYI, A, APD, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AXP, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AVY, AZTA, BSET, BAX, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIG, BAH, CBT, CE, CX, CNP, CF, CRL, CSCO, CLF, CNX, CL, CAG, GLW, CSGP, COST, COTY, DVN, DSGR, D, FICO, FISV, FLS, IT, GE, GIS, GNW, GS, GGG, HAYN, HSIC, DHI, HOV, HUN, INCY, IPAR, IBKR, IPG, KBH, K, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LEG, LEN, LMT, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MU, NJR, JWN, NOVT, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, PKG, PETS, PFE, PPG, PEG, PHM, QTWO, QCOM, RL, RMBS, RLI, ^GSPC, SAIA, SAND, SLB, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, STR, SKYW, SWX, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TPX, TEVA, TOL, RIG, UHAL, V, VMC, WAT, WPM, WOLF, WWW, IYM, IAI, IYE, ITB, IDU, FXL, IEV, IXC, MXI, SOXX, IGE, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PEJ, PXJ, SSO, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLB, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDDead-cat bounce      02/28/202402/28/2024Electronics
AEISTriple bottom      02/07/202402/28/2024Semiconductor
APDPipe bottom      02/05/202402/12/2024Chemical (Diversified)
ALBHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/19/202402/13/2024Chemical (Diversified)
AADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/13/202402/26/2024Aerospace/Defense
AEOTriple bottom      01/05/202402/01/2024Apparel
ARWTriple bottom      02/01/202402/13/2024Electronics
AXSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      02/20/202402/28/2024Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BMIUgly double bottom      02/06/202402/22/2024Precision Instrument
BSETTriangle, symmetrical      12/27/202303/07/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
BKNGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/08/202402/22/2024Internet
BCOTriple bottom      01/17/202402/28/2024Industrial Services
BRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/01/202402/13/2024Information Services
CENXHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/13/202403/05/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLNETriple top      02/12/202402/28/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
CNXBroadening bottom      12/12/202302/21/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
EDTriple bottom      02/13/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (East)
CSGSPipe bottom      01/29/202402/05/2024IT Services
DVNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/18/202402/05/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
DSGRPipe top      02/05/202402/12/2024Metal Fabricating
DUKDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      02/13/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (East)
EOGTriple bottom      01/19/202402/23/2024Natural Gas (Distributor)
FAROHorn top      01/29/202402/12/2024Precision Instrument
FLEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/21/202402/28/2024Electronics
FORMPipe bottom      01/29/202402/05/2024Semiconductor
FNVTriple bottom      01/11/202402/28/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
FCXHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/22/202403/05/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
GPSTriangle, descending      01/31/202402/29/2024Apparel
HLTriangle, symmetrical      02/12/202402/28/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
HPTriangle, symmetrical      02/13/202403/07/2024Petroleum (Producing)
HONHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/17/202403/01/2024Aerospace/Defense
DHITriple bottom      01/24/202402/20/2024Homebuilding
ILMNMulti-peaks      01/09/202403/07/2024Biotechnology
INFNBroadening top      01/26/202403/07/2024Telecom. Equipment
NSPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/08/202402/14/2024Human Resources
INTCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/02/202402/28/2024Semiconductor
IPARDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/12/202402/27/2024Toiletries/Cosmetics
JKHYTriangle, symmetrical      02/12/202403/07/2024IT Services
JBLUBroadening top, right-angled and descending      12/13/202302/07/2024Air Transport
KLICDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/02/202402/29/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RAMPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/18/202402/08/2024Computer Software and Svcs
LXUPipe top      01/22/202401/29/2024Building Materials
MTSIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      01/05/202402/06/2024Semiconductor
MANHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/13/202402/21/2024IT Services
MGEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/06/202403/01/2024Electric Utility (Central)
MUPipe bottom      02/12/202402/20/2024Semiconductor
MSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/19/202402/13/2024Securities Brokerage
MURDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      01/25/202402/05/2024Petroleum (Integrated)
NOVTriangle, descending      02/12/202403/05/2024Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      02/21/202402/27/2024Precision Instrument
NTNXPipe bottom      02/12/202402/20/2024E-Commerce
NVDAFlag, high and tight      01/04/202403/07/2024Semiconductor
PNWHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/17/202402/28/2024Electric Utility (West)
RLPipe top      02/20/202402/26/2024Apparel
RMBSTriple bottom      02/07/202402/21/2024Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ROKUgly double bottom      01/31/202402/21/2024Diversified Co.
SANDDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/13/202402/28/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
SMGHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/17/202402/22/2024Chemical (Basic)
SLGNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      02/12/202402/23/2024Packaging and Container
STRHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/19/202402/23/2024Natural Gas (Diversified)
SCSChannel      01/18/202403/07/2024Furn/Home Furnishings
SRDXHorn top      02/12/202402/26/2024Medical Supplies
TFXMulti-peaks      12/18/202302/16/2024Diversified Co.
TDCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      01/22/202402/12/2024Computer Software and Svcs
TXNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/01/202402/13/2024Semiconductor
TWLODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/21/202403/05/2024E-Commerce
SLCAHead-and-shoulders bottom      01/17/202402/23/2024Metals and Mining (Div.)
MDRXDead-cat bounce      02/26/202403/01/2024Healthcare Information
WERNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      01/23/202402/12/2024Trucking/Transp. Leasing
WWWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/23/202403/04/2024Shoe
WDAYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      02/09/202402/26/2024Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 3/7/24. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq. Bullish

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.6% or 91.95 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 523 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 322 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 201 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 61.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 272/482 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 75/161 or 46.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB, a double top appears. It confirms as valid when the index closes below the low between peaks A and B. That happens and leads to a large decline.

C is a channel. It's unusual because it's long even though price pierces the border a few times.

Green line D is one of support/resistance (depending on which side price is on). I drew it just to see where the Wednesday peak touches or nears the prior price movement. Point E looks to be resting on support formed by the channel. That suggests an upward move will happen tomorrow (Thursday, but that's a guess).

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Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AMD, AFL, A, APD, ALRM, ALB, AMZN, AEO, AEP, AMN, AAPL, ACGL, AVY, AXS, BERY, BAH, BMY, BBW, CX, CENX, CDAY, CF, CRL, CVX, CI, CLF, CNO, CNX, CL, DFS, DSGR, ^DJI, DRQ, EBAY, FLEX, GNW, GFS, GS, GOOGL, GFF, THG, HE, HSII, HSIC, HOV, JBHT, INFN, NSP, IIIN, JAZZ, JBLU, KMB, LAMR, L, MTSI, M, MCHX, MTRX, MLKN, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFLX, NUS, NVDA, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PRFT, PLXS, PRU, PSTG, RL, RNG, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SAND, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, SLGN, SWX, SRDX, TPR, TGT, RIG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VC, WPM, WOLF, WWW, IYK, IYC, IYE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IEV, IGV, IXC, MXI, IXN, IGE, EWA, EWC, ECH, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, SSO, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLF, XRT, SPY, XLK, SMH, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,687.01    
 Monthly S1  15,359.27  672.27   
 Weekly S2  15,708.65  349.37   
 Monthly Pivot  15,830.76  122.11   
 Daily S2  15,867.02  36.26   
 Weekly S1  15,870.09  3.07   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  15,949.28  79.19   
 Low  15,956.66  7.38   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  16,022.33  65.67   
 Close  16,031.54  9.21   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  16,038.92  7.38   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  16,042.61  3.69   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  16,062.89  20.28   
 Weekly Pivot  16,086.17  23.27   
 Open  16,092.00  5.83   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  16,121.18  29.18   
 High  16,128.56  7.38   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  16,210.82  82.26   
 Weekly R1  16,247.61  36.79   
 Weekly R2  16,463.69  216.07   
 Monthly R1  16,503.02  39.34   
 Monthly R2  16,974.51  471.48   

Tuesday 3/5/24. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -97.55 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1257 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 628 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 629 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 282/513 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 53/112 or 47.3% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring ascending triangles.

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Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AMD, AES, A, AMED, AR, APA, AAPL, ATO, AZTA, BZH, BERY, BIO, BKH, BA, BCO, BBW, BG, COR, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, ED, COST, COTY, DHR, DECK, DSGR, ^DJU, DRQ, DUK, EXP, EMN, EME, EVRG, EXPI, FICO, FAST, FE, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, FRD, GME, IT, GILD, GFS, GMS, GFF, HLIT, HL, HSII, HOV, HURC, IDA, IDXX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, INTU, JBLU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LEN, LLY, LXU, M, MANH, MRO, MLM, MTDR, MTRX, MDC, MU, MS, NKE, NTNX, NVDA, OXY, OGE, OR, OXM, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PNW, PXD, PLXS, POR, PFG, PEG, PSTG, QCOM, RHI, RGLD, RES, R, SAND, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SKX, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPX, TXT, TKR, TDG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VFC, MDRX, VRSN, WRB, WAT, WU, WDAY, IAI, IYE, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IXC, IXN, SLV, IEO, IYF, IHI, ECH, EWY, EWT, TUR, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, XLF, GLD, XAR, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2024 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  37,472.12    
 Monthly S1  38,230.97  758.86   
 Weekly S2  38,488.26  257.29   
 Weekly S1  38,739.04  250.79   
 Monthly Pivot  38,756.63  17.58   
 Daily S2  38,822.44  65.81   
 Daily S1  38,906.13  83.70   
 Low  38,913.30  7.17   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  38,968.77  55.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  38,979.98  11.21   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  38,989.83  9.85   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  38,992.46  2.64   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  38,997.00  4.53   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  39,000.58  3.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  39,021.18  20.60   
 Daily R1  39,080.70  59.52   
 High  39,087.86  7.16   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  39,171.56  83.70   
 Weekly R1  39,243.25  71.70   
 Weekly R2  39,496.68  253.42   
 Monthly R1  39,515.48  18.81   
 Monthly R2  40,041.14  525.65   

Monday 3/4/24. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the weekly scale.

This is a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the weekly scale (not the usual daily).

The red horizontal line near the top of the chart shows overhead resistance setup by the prior peak.

I'd like to suggest that resistance will turn the indicator down. However, the circled knot didn't impede the upward move at all. I consider that unusual.

I shows a rugged looking cup with handle pattern highlighted in green with a red handle. The index made an nice move afterward.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 62.3 points.
Tuesday: Down 96.82 points.
Wednesday: Down 23.39 points.
Thursday: Up 47.37 points.
Friday: Up 90.99 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 44.15 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 278.12 points or 1.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 48.28 points or 0.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.5% down from the high of 39,282.28 on 02/23/2024.
     5.3% up from the low of 37,122.95 on 01/18/2024.
Nasdaq
     0.2% down from the high of 16,302.24 on 03/01/2024.
     12.4% up from the low of 14,477.57 on 01/05/2024.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 5,140.33 on 03/01/2024.
     9.7% up from the low of 4,682.11 on 01/05/2024.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  38,750  38,918  39,019  39,188  39,289 
Weekly  38,521  38,804  39,025  39,308  39,529 
Monthly  37,505  38,296  38,789  39,581  40,074 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  5,078  5,107  5,124  5,154  5,170 
Weekly  5,029  5,083  5,112  5,166  5,195 
Monthly  4,746  4,941  5,041  5,237  5,336 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  16,019  16,147  16,225  16,353  16,430 
Weekly  15,790  16,032  16,167  16,410  16,545 
Monthly  14,768  15,522  15,912  16,665  17,056 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, AYI, AMD, A, ALK, AEO, AMWD, AMGN, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ADM, ANET, AIZ, BERY, BG, CDNS, CLS, CNP, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CTAS, CAG, COP, CR, FANG, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EG, EVH, EXPI, XOM, FAST, FTNT, GME, IT, GD, GNW, GL, GPRO, GGG, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HNI, HD, HON, IDXX, IIIN, JAZZ, JBLU, KEYS, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LEN, LNC, LMT, LXU, MGY, MANH, MAS, MTDR, MDC, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MUR, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NTNX, ORI, OR, PETS, PXD, PEG, RMBS, RLI, ROK, RCKY, R, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, STR, SWN, SPSC, SCS, TRGP, TDY, TMO, TZOO, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UNH, UNM, VFC, MDRX, VC, WRB, WAT, WWD, XEL, IYC, IYE, IHE, DDM, FDN, FXI, IXC, SOXX, IGE, IEO, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EZA, EWP, EWD, XLE, GLD, UNG, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Apparel
2. Apparel2. Shoe
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Furn/Home Furnishings
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Semiconductor5. Homebuilding
6. Homebuilding6. Semiconductor
7. Retail (Special Lines)7. Retail (Special Lines)
8. Cement and Aggregates8. E-Commerce
9. Building Materials9. Building Materials
10. E-Commerce10. IT Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Petroleum (Integrated)50. Human Resources
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Electric Utility (East)52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Food Processing53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Toiletries/Cosmetics54. Food Processing
55. Air Transport55. Air Transport
56. Natural Gas (Diversified)56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Natural Gas (Diversified)
58. Chemical (Diversified)58. Chemical (Diversified)
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Short ETFs60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/1/24. March Market Forecast Update

I'll be making some appearance changes to the website in the coming days, mostly to the home page. The order of the links won't change. I'll be removing the background image and changing some of the colors. This is courtesy of "A reader." -- Thanks!

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Here's the updated 2024 market forecast, presented in slider format.

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Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ABM, ACN, ACIW, AMD, ALK, ALB, ALL, AEE, AEL, APOG, AAPL, AIZ, BSET, BECN, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, CBT, CPB, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CTAS, CLF, CL, CR, CRH, CMI, DHR, FANG, DDS, DFS, EBAY, EPAM, EVH, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FORM, FTV, FDP, IT, GD, GNW, GL, GES, THG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HELE, HP, DHI, IEX, NSP, IIIN, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KMT, LEG, LEN, RAMP, LXU, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MU, NTAP, NKE, NOC, NWPX, NOVT, NTNX, ORI, OMI, OXM, PKG, PKE, PFE, PINC, PEG, REGN, RLI, RHI, ROL, ROST, R, SBH, SAND, SMG, SEIC, SMTC, SCI, STR, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SSYS, TPX, TDC, TER, TOL, TDG, SLCA, UNH, UNM, VC, WU, WMB, WWD, XEL, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EIS, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, PBE, PEJ, XLF, GLD, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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