Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/26/2021
  Indus: 34,899 -905.04 -2.5%  
  Trans: 16,216 -610.57 -3.6%  
  Utils: 907 -15.90 -1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 15,492 -353.57 -2.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 -106.84 -2.3%  
YTD
 +14.0%  
 +29.7%  
 +4.9%  
 +20.2%  
 +22.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2021  
  Up arrow38,000 or 35,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow17,700 or 16,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow935 or 890 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,350 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow4,850 or 4,560 by 12/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/17/21
As of 11/26/2021
  Indus: 34,899 -905.04 -2.5%  
  Trans: 16,216 -610.57 -3.6%  
  Utils: 907 -15.90 -1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 15,492 -353.57 -2.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 -106.84 -2.3%  
YTD
 +14.0%  
 +29.7%  
 +4.9%  
 +20.2%  
 +22.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2021  
  Up arrow38,000 or 35,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow17,700 or 16,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow935 or 890 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,350 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow4,850 or 4,560 by 12/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/17/21

 

November 2021 Headlines

Archives


Monday 11/29/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Pattern ABC is a double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the transports close above horizontal red line C.

The resulting move up (from the low at B) was strong and long. Very nice, indeed!

The big spike at the end of the uptrend is weird. I checked two data sources to verify that the spike is real. It remains unexplained why it happened, but that's probably because I haven't searched for a reason.

The chart pattern outlined in red to the right of that big spike is a descending broadening wedge. Both trendlines slope downward and diverge in this pattern.

The breakout from the wedge is typically upward 72% of the time. That's no surprise because the market has a slight bias to rise and this pattern drops (two down-sloping trendlines), so it favors an upward breakout, too.

Even though markets panicked about the Omicron COVID variant, this pattern in the transports suggests the drop will be short-lived. I say that because the transports should bounce off the bottom trendline and rise.

Writing that is really premature because if Omicron is worse than expected, lots of people will die and lots of businesses will go out of business. That won't be good for the markets.

Even more scary are new variants that will probably arrive and drive the markets for months and even years to come. As long as Covid survives, so will new variants. They may bypass vaccines and we'll have to go through this again. So learn what happened when Delta arrived and that will give you a map for what to expect now (except reactions will be shorter, I think).


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a worm from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 17.27 points.
Tuesday: Up 194.55 points.
Wednesday: Down 9.42 points.
Friday: Down 905.04 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 702.64 points or 2.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 565.78 points or 3.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 103.34 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     4.6% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     16.9% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     4.4% down from the high of 16,212.23 on 11/22/2021.
     25.0% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     3.1% down from the high of 4,743.83 on 11/22/2021.
     25.4% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,388  34,644  35,005  35,261  35,622 
Weekly  34,013  34,456  35,193  35,636  36,373 
Monthly  33,589  34,244  35,405  36,060  37,221 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,536  4,565  4,615  4,644  4,694 
Weekly  4,483  4,539  4,641  4,697  4,800 
Monthly  4,401  4,498  4,621  4,718  4,841 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,284  15,388  15,560  15,663  15,835 
Weekly  14,964  15,228  15,720  15,984  16,476 
Monthly  14,384  14,938  15,575  16,129  16,766 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 258 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AES, APD, ALK, AA, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AXP, AMWD, APH, ARCB, ADM, ASH, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BMI, BECN, BZH, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CHS, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CGNX, CMCO, COTY, CR, CMI, DHR, XRAY, ^DJI, DOV, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EMR, EL, XOM, EZPW, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPN, GGG, THG, HE, HAYN, HL, HSII, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HON, INCY, INFN, IPAR, TILE, IPG, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, LZB, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LNC, RAMP, L, MHO, M, MNDT, MAN, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDC, MLKN, MOS, MLI, NBR, NOV, CNR, NCR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NOC, NUS, OXY, OLN, OUT, OXM, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PFE, PICO, PPG, KWR, RL, RGS, RGA, RNG, ROST, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, LUV, SWN, SXI, SCS, TPR, TPX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UNM, VMI, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, ITA, IYM, IYE, IHI, IEZ, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, THD, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, USO, VHT, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail Store1. Shoe
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor
3. Trucking/Transp. Leasing3. Retail Store
4. Shoe4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
5. Precision Instrument5. Computer Software and Svcs
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. Precision Instrument
7. Retail Building Supply7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.8. Petroleum (Producing)
9. Computers and Peripherals9. Retail (Special Lines)
10. Petroleum (Producing)10. Retail Building Supply
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Furn/Home Furnishings50. Electric Utility (Central)
51. Retail (Special Lines)51. Investment Co. (Foreign)
52. Investment Co. (Foreign)52. Aerospace/Defense
53. Aerospace/Defense53. Insurance (Life)
54. Homebuilding54. Medical Services
55. Insurance (Life)55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Apparel56. Food Processing
57. Financial Services57. Financial Services
58. Short ETFs58. Short ETFs
59. Air Transport59. Air Transport
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/26/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 14 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, CENX, COTY, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, FRD, TILE, MNDT, MA, RNG, SMG, TKR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Electronics
ANFDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/05/202111/18/2021Apparel
AXDXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/14/202111/15/2021Medical Services
ALRMPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Computer Software and Svcs
AYXPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Computer Software and Svcs
AMWDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/08/202111/15/2021Building Materials
AWICup with handle      08/12/202111/24/2021Building Materials
AGOScallop, ascending and inverted      09/29/202111/11/2021Insurance (Life)
ADSKDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/09/202111/17/2021Computer Software and Svcs
BBYDead-cat bounce      11/22/202111/23/2021Retail (Special Lines)
BMRNUgly double bottom      10/27/202111/17/2021Biotechnology
CNPBroadening top      11/05/202111/19/2021Electric Utility (Central)
GLWUgly double bottom      10/27/202111/19/2021Telecom. Equipment
EPAMPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021IT Services
EXCTriangle, ascending      11/03/202111/24/2021Electric Utility (East)
FIVNPipe top      11/08/202111/15/2021Computer Software and Svcs
FMCBig W      08/23/202110/12/2021Chemical (Basic)
FRDDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/01/202111/16/2021Building Materials
GPSDead-cat bounce      11/24/202111/24/2021Apparel
GGGFlag      10/25/202110/28/2021Machinery
GESHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/20/202111/23/2021Apparel
HOLXPipe bottom      11/01/202111/08/2021Medical Supplies
IDABroadening bottom      10/15/202111/22/2021Electric Utility (West)
IBKRCup with handle      04/19/202111/19/2021Securities Brokerage
IPIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/25/202111/01/2021Chemical (Diversified)
KELYATriangle, symmetrical      09/08/202110/25/2021Human Resources
KMTTriangle, symmetrical      11/01/202111/24/2021Metal Fabricating
RAMPHead-and-shoulders top      10/15/202111/15/2021Computer Software and Svcs
MCHXPipe top      03/15/202103/22/2021Advertising
MAPipe top      11/08/202111/15/2021Financial Services
MYGNChannel      09/02/202111/24/2021Biotechnology
NWLScallop, ascending and inverted      10/28/202111/19/2021Household Products
JWNDead-cat bounce      11/24/202111/24/2021Retail Store
OXYScallop, ascending and inverted      09/20/202111/19/2021Petroleum (Producing)
PFECup with handle      08/18/202111/24/2021Drug
PPGBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      10/25/202111/24/2021Chemical (Diversified)
PGRDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/26/202111/05/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DGXPipe bottom      11/01/202111/08/2021Medical Services
RGSTriple bottom      10/18/202111/09/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
RNGUgly double bottom      10/06/202111/08/2021Computer Software and Svcs
SMGPipe top      11/15/202111/15/2021Chemical (Basic)
NOWDiamond top      10/21/202111/17/2021IT Services
LUVPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Air Transport
TECHRoof      10/15/202111/22/2021Biotechnology
TEVADouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/11/202110/20/2021Drug
VEEVTriangle, descending      10/22/202111/17/2021Healthcare Information
WATRoof      10/12/202111/24/2021Precision Instrument
WSOUgly double bottom      10/01/202110/27/2021Retail Building Supply
WWWDiamond bottom      11/11/202111/23/2021Shoe
XELDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/28/202111/08/2021Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 11/25/21. Feeding ThePatternSite

Picture of my dog

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com (#Ad). The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski


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Wednesday 11/24/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator gave a bearish signal about a week ago and it's not a signal which will disappear (meaning a signal change can occur for up to a week). This one I think has been around long enough to be permanent.

So the CPI is bearish. The thin blue indicator line near the bottom of the chart appears to be in the neutral zone but obviously trending upward. If it continues its upward move, then expect the CPI to turn bullish.

I have my doubts that a bullish signal (which lasts) will actually happen. I think the potential double top (the two peaks straddling the latest vertical red bar) in the index will confirm and send the index lower.

Let's see what the next chart says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 23% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 22%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 35% on 09/21/2021.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 17% on 09/30/2021.

In this week's episode, the blue line made the biggest move. Usually it's the more sensitive red line which bounces around.

I show two lines on the chart, A and B. Line A is horizontal but B slopes downward. That's bearish divergence. It suggests the index will follow the indicator lower.

That's not always true, of course and it can be months before it becomes true. However, combined with the prior chart, it suggests the markets are still going to be weak in the near future.

That's my opinion and it's a guess.

Personal note: Got my booster shot today. Yippee!

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, AES, AKAM, ALRM, AEO, ACGL, AXS, BSET, BERY, BIO, CDNS, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CTXS, CAG, COTY, CRH, EXP, EVH, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, FRD, GPS, ILMN, INOV, ITGR, INTC, TILE, IVC, LEN, RAMP, L, MTSI, MNDT, MRO, MRTN, MA, MDC, MSFT, NFG, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, PAYX, PFE, PEG, PHM, RNG, ROG, CRM, SMG, SRE, SMTC, LUV, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TER, TEVA, TKR, RIG, VEEV, ITA, IYE, ITB, IHI, IEO, IDU, DDM, FTEC, IYH, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EIS, EWM, EWD, EWL, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, XLE, GLD, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/23/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.0% or 17.27 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1339 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 718 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 621 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 233/417 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Fed Ex: FDX (first in a series).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ADS, AYX, AEO, AEP, AXP, AMWD, AMN, APH, ATR, AXS, BSET, BERY, BKNG, BBW, CDNS, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, COST, CRH, DOV, EXP, EMR, EPAM, EVH, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FOE, FIS, FE, FORM, GME, GILD, HQY, HL, HSY, HOLX, DHI, INFN, INOV, ITGR, JBLU, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, LAMR, LEN, RAMP, MTSI, MCHX, FB, MSFT, ^IXIC, CNR, JWN, NVDA, OTEX, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PEG, DGX, RMBS, RGA, ^GSPC, SCHW, SMG, SMTC, SHW, SCCO, LUV, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TER, TXN, TOL, TRV, TZOO, WSO, WEX, WWW, IDU, FTEC, IYH, IHF, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWD, TUR, QLD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLE, GLD, XLI, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  34,194.10    
 Monthly S1  34,906.68  712.57   
 Weekly S2  35,069.17  162.50   
 Weekly S1  35,344.21  275.04   
 Daily S2  35,407.38  63.16   
 Daily S1  35,513.31  105.94   
 Low  35,615.55  102.24   
 Close  35,619.25  3.70   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Open  35,631.41  12.16   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  35,721.49  90.08   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,735.54  14.05   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  35,736.20  0.66   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,772.61  36.40   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,809.67  37.07   
 Daily R1  35,827.42  17.75   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  35,830.41  2.99   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 High  35,929.66  99.25   
 Daily R2  36,035.60  105.94   
 Weekly R1  36,105.45  69.85   
 Monthly R1  36,448.78  343.33   
 Weekly R2  36,591.65  142.87   
 Monthly R2  37,278.30  686.66   

Monday 11/22/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

Peaks A and B form a double top which confirms when the index closes below C, the lowest valley between the two peaks.

The height of the double top subtracted from the confirmation line (C) gives a target which the pattern will reach 43% of the time, on average, according statistics compiled in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad) In this case, the index didn't have any problem dropped to D, far exceeding the target.

Outlined in blue is a diamond top chart pattern. Additional price bars obscure it, but it's there.

In red is a symmetrical triangle formed not by peaks and valleys but more by tall price bars that narrow over time. According to my Encyclopedia, cited above, the breakout from the triangle is 60% upward.

The index stalled after the downward breakout from the diamond to form the triangle. To me that suggests strength so I'm looking for the index to rise this week and breakout upward from the triangle.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 12.86 points.
Tuesday: Up 54.77 points.
Wednesday: Down 211.17 points.
Thursday: Down 60.1 points.
Friday: Down 268.97 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 498.33 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 196.48 points or 1.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 15.11 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.6% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     19.2% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 16,121.12 on 11/19/2021.
     29.5% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 4,718.50 on 11/05/2021.
     28.3% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,355  35,479  35,679  35,802  36,003 
Weekly  35,063  35,333  35,825  36,094  36,586 
Monthly  34,188  34,895  35,730  36,437  37,273 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,680  4,689  4,703  4,712  4,727 
Weekly  4,651  4,675  4,696  4,720  4,741 
Monthly  4,350  4,524  4,621  4,795  4,892 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,961  16,009  16,065  16,113  16,169 
Weekly  15,643  15,850  15,986  16,193  16,328 
Monthly  14,383  15,220  15,671  16,508  16,958 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 187 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADBE, AEIS, AJRD, AFL, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AYX, AEO, AXP, AIG, ADM, AGO, AXS, BSET, BMRN, BKNG, CNC, CVX, CHS, CNA, CTSH, COP, CRH, DHR, DOV, DRQ, EXP, EMR, EOG, EPAM, RE, XOM, EZPW, FFIV, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, GME, GIS, EVRG, GFF, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HSII, HP, HOLX, HON, IEX, INCY, IPG, INTU, ISRG, JBLU, KELYA, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LEN, LLY, LNC, L, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MU, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, CNR, JWN, OXY, OGE, PKG, PTEN, PFE, PPG, PG, PRU, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RGA, RES, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, LUV, SWX, SWN, SCS, SSYS, TPR, TFX, TOL, RIG, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UNM, WRB, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, IYE, ITB, IEO, IEZ, FTEC, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EZA, EWP, EWD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLF, XHB, XAR, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Shoe1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor2. Retail Store
3. Retail Store3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Trucking/Transp. Leasing4. Shoe
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs
6. Precision Instrument6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
7. Semiconductor Cap Equip.7. Precision Instrument
8. Petroleum (Producing)8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
9. Retail (Special Lines)9. IT Services
10. Retail Building Supply10. Electronics
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (Central)50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
51. Investment Co. (Foreign)51. Aerospace/Defense
52. Aerospace/Defense52. Packaging and Container
53. Insurance (Life)53. Homebuilding
54. Medical Services54. Apparel
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Food Processing56. Food Processing
57. Financial Services57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
58. Short ETFs58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Air Transport59. Air Transport
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/19/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 163 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AEIS, AJRD, ALRM, ALK, ADS, AYX, AEO, AEL, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AON, ASH, AIZ, ATO, AXS, BLL, BAX, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BLDR, CDNS, CALM, CNC, CHS, CINF, CLX, CNA, CL, CRH, CCK, DECK, ^DJI, EXP, EPAM, EXPD, EZPW, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FDP, GPS, GD, GGG, GES, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HP, HNI, HOLX, HUBG, IEX, INOV, TILE, IPG, ISRG, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LAMR, LAWS, LDOS, LEN, LNC, RAMP, MHO, M, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MU, NFG, NOV, CNR, NCR, NJR, NWL, NXGN, NKE, NI, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, PFE, PCG, PNW, PPG, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RGA, RES, SAIA, SAIC, LUV, SWN, SR, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TGT, TFX, TPX, RIG, TRV, TREX, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, WAT, WSO, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, DDM, FDN, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IYZ, EWO, EEM, EWG, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWT, TUR, IBB, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLI, XAR, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMRising wedge      09/27/202111/05/2021Diversified Co.
AKAMTriangle, symmetrical      11/03/202111/18/2021E-Commerce
AABroadening wedge, ascending      11/01/202111/18/2021Aerospace/Defense
AMZNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/20/202110/04/2021Internet
ATRPipe bottom      10/25/202111/01/2021Packaging and Container
AVATriangle, symmetrical      10/15/202111/16/2021Electric Utility (West)
BKNGPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Internet
EPAYDiamond top      10/22/202111/18/2021Computer Software and Svcs
CHSRounding bottom      08/24/202111/18/2021Apparel
GLWPipe bottom      10/25/202111/01/2021Telecom. Equipment
CCKDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/01/202110/26/2021Packaging and Container
^DJUTriangle, symmetrical      11/04/202111/18/2021None
BOOMBroadening wedge, ascending      09/22/202111/08/2021Metal Fabricating
EXPCup with handle      08/30/202111/18/2021Cement and Aggregates
HELETriple bottom      10/06/202110/28/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
HPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/19/202111/08/2021Petroleum (Producing)
HDRectangle top      10/26/202111/15/2021Retail Building Supply
KScallop, descending      09/29/202111/04/2021Food Processing
KELYAPipe top      11/08/202111/08/2021Human Resources
KLICUgly double bottom      10/18/202111/03/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LLYCup with handle      08/17/202111/18/2021Drug
MASScallop, ascending      10/29/202111/16/2021Building Materials
FBUgly double bottom      10/28/202111/11/2021E-Commerce
NOVHead-and-shoulders top      10/20/202111/04/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEUTriangle, symmetrical      10/28/202111/10/2021Chemical (Specialty)
JWNCup with handle      08/24/202111/17/2021Retail Store
NWPXTriple bottom      09/21/202110/25/2021Building Materials
PTENTriple top      10/05/202111/08/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PFERounding bottom      08/23/202111/18/2021Drug
PEGScallop, ascending and inverted      10/11/202111/09/2021Electric Utility (East)
DGXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/06/202111/05/2021Medical Services
SLBDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/26/202111/08/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SODouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/22/202111/10/2021Electric Utility (East)
SSYSPipe top      11/01/202111/08/2021Electronics
TGTUgly double bottom      10/04/202111/08/2021Retail Store
TGBroadening bottom      09/27/202111/12/2021Chemical (Specialty)
UNMTriple top      10/11/202110/26/2021Insurance (Diversified)

 

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Thursday 11/18/21. A Look at Ethereum

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.3% or -52.29 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 528 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 288 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 240 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 232/401 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 59/125 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH-USD) on the daily scale.

The chart pattern highlighted at A is a bump-and-run reversal top. It's a rare pattern, perhaps because I don't look for it much. The drop after the trendline pierce didn't fulfill the promise of a large decline.

I circled B and C to show what C might look like going forward. Both B and C began with a tall price plunge (a 1-day drop at C and 2-day at B). At B, price moved sideways for more than a week and them climbed to C (a significant rise).

Perhaps C will move sideways like we see at B before another uphill run begins. I don't know if that's likely or not, but it seems a retrace is in order. Maybe it'll take the shape of a sideways pause.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, AEIS, ATSG, ALRM, ALK, AYX, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, AON, ASH, AXS, BLL, BKNG, BAH, BBW, CNC, CNP, CF, CHS, CINF, CGNX, CL, CONN, CR, CCK, ^DJT, ^DJI, DUK, EXP, EPAM, EXC, EXPD, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, GILD, GFF, GES, HQY, HSII, HSY, HOLX, INCY, IBKR, ISRG, NVTA, JBLU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, LZB, LAMR, LAWS, LEN, LNC, LMT, LXU, MNDT, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MTRX, MRK, MU, MOS, CNR, NCR, NEU, NEE, JWN, NWPX, NVDA, OXY, OMC, PANW, PATK, PTEN, PFE, PCG, PICO, PINC, PHM, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RES, SAIC, NOW, LUV, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TECH, TPX, TXN, TKR, TJX, RIG, TRV, TG, UPS, VEEV, VRTX, V, WRB, WAT, WU, WEX, WSM, WWW, XEL, ITA, IAI, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWM, EPP, EWT, TUR, DBA, PEJ, ILF, XLY, XLE, GLD, XLI, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,860.40    
 Monthly S1  14,890.98  1,030.59   
 Weekly S2  15,339.94  448.96   
 Monthly Pivot  15,472.19  132.24   
 Weekly S1  15,630.76  158.57   
 Weekly Pivot  15,834.49  203.74   
 Daily S2  15,854.00  19.50   
 Daily S1  15,887.78  33.79   
 Low  15,909.39  21.61   
 Close  15,921.57  12.18   
 Daily Pivot  15,943.18  21.61   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,943.46  0.28   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,953.98  10.52   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,964.50  10.52   
 Open  15,973.62  9.12   
 Daily R1  15,976.96  3.34   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  15,998.57  21.61   
 Daily R2  16,032.36  33.79   
 Weekly R1  16,125.31  92.95   
 Weekly R2  16,329.04  203.74   
 Monthly R1  16,502.77  173.73   
 Monthly R2  17,083.98  581.20   

Wednesday 11/17/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I'm still concerned with the bearish divergence we're seeing on this chart. It's lasted for 1.5 months now. I show that with the diverging brown lines.

The theory with divergence is that the index will follow the indicator eventually. It might not, but that's the thinking. That means the index is going down.

I am still hopeful that the year end move up that we usually see will turn things around but this chart is concerning.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 21%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 35% on 09/21/2021.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 17% on 11/18/2020.

The red line shows a slight uptick in bearish sentiment, as judged by the above figures. I don't like the wobbling we see in the last week, the M-shaped sideways move.

The lines seem to indicate a pause and it mirrors the minor retrace and return to moving up that we see in the index over the last week or two. If we fail to breakout to a new high (hopefully with gusto), then we'll likely face a strong retrace. The prior chart shows that weakness. This chart hints of it, but nothing is certain.

I'm cautiously optimistic but worried about a downtrend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 169 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AEIS, AMD, APD, ALRM, ALK, AYX, AEL, AXP, AFG, AMWD, APH, AON, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AXS, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, EPAY, BRKS, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CPB, CNC, CNP, CHS, CGNX, CL, CLR, COTY, CR, CCK, DOV, DUK, EXP, WIRE, EPAM, EL, RE, EXC, XOM, FAST, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FRD, GIS, EVRG, GES, HIG, HE, HQY, HOLX, HD, HOV, ISRG, JBLU, KBH, K, KELYA, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, LAMR, LEN, LNC, LOW, LXU, MTSI, MAN, MCHX, MU, MSFT, MOS, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NJR, NEE, NKE, OMC, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PPL, PFG, DGX, RGA, RHI, ROG, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, SLGN, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SSYS, SNPS, TPR, TDC, TXT, TMO, TKR, RIG, TG, VRTX, WERN, WOLF, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IGV, SOXX, EWK, ECH, EWL, THD, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, ROBO, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/16/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Englehard (EC)

The index dropped by 0.0% or -12.86 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1338 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 717 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 621 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 53.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/416 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Englehard: EC

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, AYI, AES, AMED, AEO, AFG, ANIK, AON, APOG, ATR, ADSK, AXS, BECN, BBY, BIO, BA, BLDR, CNC, CF, CHKP, CLX, CMCO, GLW, CROX, CTS, CW, DECK, EXP, EL, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FTNT, GE, GNW, GGG, EVRG, HP, HSIC, HOV, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IBP, IIIN, ISRG, IVC, KMB, LMT, MANH, MAN, MA, MTRX, MRK, MU, MLKN, MCO, CNR, NCR, NTAP, NEE, NXGN, JWN, OXY, OTEX, PATK, PTEN, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PG, PGR, PHM, RGS, RLI, SMG, SKX, SWN, SR, SXI, SUM, TPR, TDOC, TER, TEVA, TXT, TMO, TKR, TJX, RIG, TG, VFC, VRTX, VC, WAT, WU, WEX, WOLF, IHI, IHE, FXL, FXI, IYH, IHF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, TUR, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLP, XLE, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,138.80    
 Monthly S1  34,613.13  1,474.33   
 Weekly S2  35,539.02  925.90   
 Monthly Pivot  35,589.43  50.40   
 Weekly S1  35,813.24  223.81   
 Daily S2  35,914.14  100.91   
 Daily S1  36,000.80  86.65   
 Low  36,031.78  30.98   
 Close  36,087.45  55.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  36,109.82  22.37   
 Daily Pivot  36,118.43  8.61   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  36,128.83  10.39   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  36,133.93  5.10   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  36,158.03  24.11   
 Weekly Pivot  36,189.48  31.45   
 Daily R1  36,205.09  15.60   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  36,236.07  30.98   
 Daily R2  36,322.72  86.65   
 Weekly R1  36,463.70  140.97   
 Weekly R2  36,839.94  376.25   
 Monthly R1  37,063.75  223.81   
 Monthly R2  38,040.06  976.30   

Monday 11/15/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

I show the S & P 500 index on the daily scale.

A head-and-shoulders bottom appears as LS (left shoulder), head, and right shoulder (RS) on the chart. The straight red line is a neckline connecting the armpits of the pattern. It provides an entry signal when price closes above it.

If you had a buy stop a penny above the line, it would have worked well. The problem with the method is, it takes some effort to identify the entry price (at what price do you put the buy stop?). Waiting a day to buy at the open would have cost you, but it's an easy order to implement.

I circled A in the chart. It's an area of mild congestion. Price has some overlap there, about midway along the run. If the index were to drop to A, I would expect to see support pop up there or near that area. (Support from the September peak would help also).

What does all of this mean for the next week?

I'm guessing that the retrace we see near the top of the chart is over and price will rise. If you look back at the prior rise-retrace pairs from the start of the chart to September's high, you'll see that the rise is shorter than the rise we see from RS to the top of the chart, and the retrace is more extensive.

Despite that evidence, I think the recent retrace was an aberration. If something serious were to happen, I think the retrace would take the index lower than what you see here. So there's a chance the current retrace will continue down (maybe reaching A), but I'm bullish. I see more of an up move ahead.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a my dog.

For Ronda: This is a picture of Bumper, but I dedicate it to loving memory of Coal.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 104.27 points.
Tuesday: Down 112.24 points.
Wednesday: Down 240.04 points.
Thursday: Down 158.71 points.
Friday: Up 179.08 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 227.64 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 110.63 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was down 14.68 points or 0.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.3% down from the high of 36,565.73 on 11/08/2021.
     20.9% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     1.2% down from the high of 16,053.39 on 11/05/2021.
     27.9% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 4,718.50 on 11/05/2021.
     27.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,848  35,974  36,061  36,187  36,274 
Weekly  35,543  35,822  36,194  36,472  36,844 
Monthly  33,143  34,622  35,594  37,072  38,044 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,636  4,660  4,674  4,697  4,712 
Weekly  4,592  4,638  4,676  4,722  4,760 
Monthly  4,189  4,436  4,577  4,824  4,966 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,644  15,753  15,814  15,922  15,983 
Weekly  15,320  15,590  15,814  16,085  16,309 
Monthly  13,840  14,851  15,452  16,462  17,064 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, AES, APD, ANTM, ATR, ARW, AXS, BMI, BECN, BIO, EPAY, BMY, CNC, CF, CHD, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CONN, GLW, COST, CTS, DUK, EXP, EL, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FDP, GPS, EVRG, HBI, HL, HSII, HP, IEX, IDXX, INCY, IIIN, ISRG, JNJ, KALU, LH, LEN, LNC, RAMP, MTSI, MNDT, MAN, MA, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, MCO, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NEU, NEE, JWN, OMC, ASGN, OXM, PTEN, PLXS, PRU, PEG, DGX, RGS, RGA, RLI, ROST, SAIA, SMG, SXI, TPR, TGT, TFX, TEVA, TRV, TG, VEEV, VRSN, VRTX, VC, WAT, IHE, DDM, QTEC, EWO, EWK, ECH, EWM, EWT, PBE, XLP, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Retail Store2. Retail Store
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Semiconductor
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs
6. Semiconductor Cap Equip.6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
7. Precision Instrument7. Computers and Peripherals
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. IT Services
9. IT Services9. Precision Instrument
10. Electronics10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)50. Medical Services
51. Aerospace/Defense51. Insurance (Life)
52. Packaging and Container52. Metal Fabricating
53. Homebuilding53. Financial Services
54. Apparel54. Packaging and Container
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Food Processing
56. Food Processing56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment57. Apparel
58. Electric Utility (West)58. Short ETFs
59. Air Transport59. Air Transport
60. Short ETFs60. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AES, APD, AKAM, AA, AMED, AEP, AEL, ATR, AIZ, AXS, BZH, BIO, BKNG, BMY, BBW, BG, CNC, CENX, CF, CINF, CLF, CMCO, GLW, CTS, DDS, ^DJU, EXP, EPAM, EQT, EL, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FWRD, GD, HBI, THG, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HD, HURC, ILMN, IIIN, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, KELYA, KBAL, LMT, MAN, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, CNR, NCR, NFLX, OUT, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SCCO, SWN, SRDX, TPR, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TXN, TMO, TJX, TG, V, VC, WU, IYC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWU, PPA, IXN, ILF, MXI, XLE, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AYIScallop, ascending      10/18/202111/09/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
ADTNScallop, ascending      10/15/202111/05/2021Telecom. Equipment
AESPipe top      10/25/202111/01/2021Electric Utility (East)
AEOPennant      11/08/202111/11/2021Apparel
AEPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/22/202111/03/2021Electric Utility (Central)
ACGLDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/27/202111/08/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AVYRectangle top      04/29/202111/11/2021Packaging and Container
BRCFlag      11/08/202111/11/2021Chemical (Diversified)
BRKSScallop, ascending      09/27/202111/09/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
CNPBroadening top, right-angled and descending      10/15/202111/11/2021Electric Utility (Central)
CFPipe bottom      10/25/202111/01/2021Chemical (Basic)
DHRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/20/202111/01/2021Precision Instrument
DDSFlag, high and tight      10/01/202111/11/2021Retail Store
^DJTFlag      11/03/202111/08/2021None
EZPWPipe bottom      10/25/202111/01/2021Financial Services
FECup with handle      09/02/202111/11/2021Electric Utility (East)
FRDDiamond top      10/20/202111/10/2021Building Materials
GPSPennant      11/05/202111/11/2021Apparel
GILDBroadening wedge, descending      10/06/202111/10/2021Biotechnology
HOVTriangle, symmetrical      10/11/202111/11/2021Homebuilding
IDAUgly double bottom      10/11/202110/28/2021Electric Utility (West)
ITGRBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      09/20/202111/11/2021Electronics
TILEThree Rising Valleys      08/19/202110/29/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
NVTADead-cat bounce      11/09/202111/09/2021Medical Services
JNJDiamond top      10/21/202111/11/2021Medical Supplies
KLACScallop, ascending      09/23/202111/08/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LENUgly double bottom      10/06/202110/29/2021Homebuilding
PKGRoof      10/19/202111/11/2021Packaging and Container
RJFTriangle, symmetrical      10/21/202111/11/2021Securities Brokerage
RGADouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/15/202111/03/2021Insurance (Life)
TPRCup with handle      08/12/202111/10/2021Apparel
TPXPipe top      10/18/202110/25/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
TOLHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/15/202111/01/2021Homebuilding
WLKDiamond top      10/07/202111/10/2021Chemical (Basic)
WSMScallop, ascending      10/22/202111/03/2021Retail (Special Lines)
IHIRoof      10/21/202111/11/2021Medical Supplies

 

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Thursday 11/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -1.7% or -263.83 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 83 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 39 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 44 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 53.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/401 or 57.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew three horizontal red lines to highlight something unusual. Let's look at line A.

Starting from the right, the index touches the line twice, so the line shows support. But if you look to the left, the line touches the index in the middle of a straight-line run up. In other words, that location shows support later, but not last Thursday. However, we know that the middle of a run like you see here can be a location of support or resistance (future support in this case).

Line B shows support on the right but not on the left. If we consider that support and resistance are ranges and not distinct points, then we can infer that support is shown below line A, on the left, where the index moves sideways a week ago on Wednesday.

Finally, I show the bottom line, C. I drew this from today's (Wednesday's) bottom, backward to a week ago Monday. There is some support shown on that Monday.

Looking forward, what will happen? My guess is the index will rebound. It's already started moving higher near the end of today's session, but the 3-day trend is still downward. So it's hard to tell what will happen. Normally, the trend will continue (down) and trying to call when it'll reverse is difficult at best. However, I think the fear of inflation is overblown and that fear represents a short-term buying opportunity. Clearly, though, the turn I'm calling could be premature. Indeed, the index could continue lower for the rest of this week and could start a recovery next week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANTM, ATR, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CSCO, CMCO, CLR, GLW, CR, CTS, DOV, EXP, EQT, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, GME, GD, GS, EVRG, HL, HP, HSY, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, KLIC, L, MHO, MNDT, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MRK, FB, MCO, MOS, MLI, MUR, NCR, NFLX, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, PG, DGX, RGS, RNG, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SLB, SWN, SR, SRDX, TECH, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TG, UNM, VC, WAT, WERN, IYM, IAI, IDU, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, DBA, PJP, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLE, GLD, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,603.99    
 Monthly S1  14,613.35  1,009.36   
 Weekly S2  15,133.07  519.72   
 Monthly Pivot  15,333.37  200.30   
 Daily S2  15,354.32  20.95   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  15,377.89  23.57   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  15,488.51  110.62   
 Low  15,543.68  55.17   
 Close  15,622.71  79.03   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,667.28  44.57   
 Daily Pivot  15,677.88  10.60   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,705.46  27.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  15,715.64  10.18   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,743.64  28.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Open  15,753.84  10.20   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  15,812.07  58.23   
 High  15,867.24  55.17   
 Weekly R1  15,960.46  93.22   
 Daily R2  16,001.44  40.98   
 Weekly R2  16,298.21  296.77   
 Monthly R1  16,342.73  44.52   
 Monthly R2  17,062.75  720.02   

Wednesday 11/10/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I drew red lines A and B to highlight what I believe is bearish divergence. That's when the indicator (the CPI line in this case) trends lower even as the index rises.

We see that in this chart. It suggests the index is going down but this type of divergence can last for months. I've also written about this recently, so I've been waiting for the market to turn lower. Maybe we're seeing the weakness I expected happening now.

It's really too soon to tell and it's at the time of year that the indices should be gathering strength to power higher. I also expect that, meaning a higher close by year end.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 21% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 39% on 11/12/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 20% on 11/12/2020.

Since the start of November, both lines (especially the more sensitive red one) have made a strong move upward. Very nice.

If you believe that a trend in motion tends to stay in motion, then look for the upward rise to continue.

Sounds like a contradiction, doesn't it (the prior chart warns of the index dropping while this chart is strong)? One of the charts might be right unless the market moves sideways in which case both charts will be wrong. In the short term (days to a week, maybe two), the market might be weak. After that, it'll recover and move higher. That's my guess.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AJRD, AES, ALB, AEO, ATR, ASH, AIZ, AXS, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CNC, CF, CINF, CTXS, CLX, CNO, CMCO, GLW, COTY, CTS, DECK, DDS, DOV, EXP, EL, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, GME, GE, GNW, GS, GES, HBI, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, DHI, INFN, INOV, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KLIC, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MRK, FB, MCO, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NI, NUS, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PLXS, PRU, QCOM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SWN, SR, SCS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TOL, TG, TREX, VC, WSO, WOLF, ZBRA, IHI, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EZA, EWY, EWT, IBB, ROBO, IXN, XLY, XLE, GLD, XRT, XLK, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials (2)

The index climbed by 0.3% or 104.27 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1123 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 619 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 504 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 232/415 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 2

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AA, ADS, AEE, AEP, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ASH, ADP, AVA, AXS, BERY, BBY, BRKS, BG, CBT, CAL, CF, CINF, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, DVN, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, EL, EVH, XOM, FE, FLEX, GME, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HELE, HSIC, HOV, IDA, ILMN, INCY, INOV, IIIN, TILE, ISRG, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KMB, LAMR, LXU, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MLI, MUR, NFG, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NI, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OUT, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PLXS, POR, PEG, ROK, CRM, SRE, SO, SR, TDOC, TPX, TXT, TZOO, TG, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, V, VC, WOLF, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEO, IDU, FXI, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWS, EWT, THD, TUR, PBE, XLP, XLE, GLD, XLB, XLU, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,868.29    
 Monthly S1  34,650.26  1,781.96   
 Weekly S2  35,551.54  901.28   
 Monthly Pivot  35,567.50  15.97   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  35,991.88  424.37   
 Daily S2  36,212.81  220.94   
 Weekly Pivot  36,238.31  25.50   
 Daily S1  36,322.52  84.20   
 Low  36,334.42  11.91   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  36,416.46  82.04   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  36,422.78  6.32   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  36,432.22  9.44   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  36,444.13  11.91   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  36,450.07  5.95   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  36,477.37  27.30   
 Daily R1  36,553.83  76.46   
 High  36,565.73  11.90   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  36,675.43  109.70   
 Weekly R1  36,678.66  3.22   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  36,925.09  246.44   
 Monthly R1  37,349.46  424.37   
 Monthly R2  38,266.71  917.25   

Monday 11/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

There's a measure rule for trendlines, which I describe at the link. It says that the rise from the trendline to the composite at A (vertical blue line) will mirror the drop from the trendline to B (another blue line).

The composite failed to meet or exceed the B target.

Is this an example of the Nasdaq showing strength? Yes. That's apparent because the index made a straight-line run up to C (but the rise to C could also be coincidence. I haven't checked if this really happens often).

Notice that price bar C touches the yellow trendline which touches A and the top of the composite to the left of A. Line AC is one of overhead resistance.

Will the composite continue higher, blowing through resistance or will it turn down? Maybe it'll move sideways for a spell in a kind of horizontal retrace before advancing again.

I didn't think of running a Fibonacci extension on this to show where the composite might turn down according to the numbers, so that's another ingredient poured into the mix.

What's my take? I think the Nasdaq has farther to rise before beginning a retrace. That's just a guess, however.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 94.28 points.
Tuesday: Up 138.79 points.
Wednesday: Up 104.95 points.
Thursday: Down 33.35 points.
Friday: Up 203.72 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 508.39 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 473.2 points or 3.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 92.15 points or 2.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.4% down from the high of 36,484.75 on 11/05/2021.
     21.7% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.5% down from the high of 16,053.39 on 11/05/2021.
     28.8% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 4,718.50 on 11/05/2021.
     28.3% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  36,040  36,184  36,334  36,478  36,629 
Weekly  35,517  35,922  36,204  36,609  36,890 
Monthly  32,834  34,581  35,533  37,280  38,232 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,662  4,680  4,699  4,717  4,736 
Weekly  4,547  4,622  4,670  4,746  4,794 
Monthly  4,138  4,418  4,568  4,848  4,998 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  15,823  15,897  15,975  16,050  16,128 
Weekly  15,249  15,610  15,832  16,193  16,415 
Monthly  13,720  14,846  15,450  16,575  17,179 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADTN, AFL, APD, ALK, AA, ALL, AMED, AXP, AMN, APH, ARCB, ADP, AXS, BMI, BECN, BBBY, BAH, BMY, BRKS, BG, CNC, CNP, CF, CLNE, CMCO, CCRN, DHR, ^DJI, DOV, EBAY, EIX, EOG, EPAM, EL, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FE, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, GD, GPRO, HELE, HOLX, HD, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IPI, INTU, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KFRC, KBAL, RAMP, LMT, MANH, MAS, MTRX, FB, MCO, MOS, OXY, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PAYX, PFE, PG, PEG, DGX, REV, RLI, ROK, ROST, SAIA, LUV, SWX, SWN, SXI, TPX, TDC, TXN, TJX, TZOO, TG, VLO, VC, VMC, WAT, WDAY, ITA, IYK, IYC, IHI, IEO, DDM, FXI, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWT, DBA, PEJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLI, XAR, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Retail Store2. Precision Instrument
3. Semiconductor3. Retail Store
4. Shoe4. Shoe
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
6. Trucking/Transp. Leasing6. IT Services
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Petroleum (Integrated)
8. IT Services8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Precision Instrument9. Drug
10. Semiconductor Cap Equip.10. Securities Brokerage
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Services50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Insurance (Life)51. Packaging and Container
52. Metal Fabricating52. Metal Fabricating
53. Financial Services53. Furn/Home Furnishings
54. Packaging and Container54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Food Processing55. Financial Services
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Short ETFs
57. Apparel57. Telecom. Equipment
58. Short ETFs58. Air Transport
59. Air Transport59. Apparel
60. Homebuilding60. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 11/5/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AA, AMZN, AEP, AXP, AMN, APA, ACGL, ASH, AVA, AXS, BAX, BECN, BBY, BKH, BRKS, BG, CDNS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHS, CHD, CLNE, GLW, COST, CR, CCRN, DDS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EBAY, FDX, FOE, FE, FLS, FMC, FRD, GNW, HIG, HL, HUBG, IEX, INFN, IIIN, IVC, NVTA, KBAL, LNC, RAMP, LOW, MANH, MAN, MCHX, FB, MGEE, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NVDA, OXY, ORI, OMC, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PNW, PG, QCOM, RGS, RLI, RHI, RCKY, RES, SRE, SWN, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TECH, TPX, TDC, TRV, TZOO, VLO, VRSN, WLK, IYC, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, SOXX, IGE, EWK, EWJ, EWL, EWU, QLD, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLI, XAR, SMH, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDRounding bottom      09/02/202111/04/2021Electronics
ADBEUgly double bottom      10/04/202110/28/2021Computer Software and Svcs
ADTNPipe bottom      10/18/202110/25/2021Telecom. Equipment
AEODouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/05/202110/29/2021Apparel
AXPPipe top      10/18/202110/25/2021Financial Services
ABCTriangle, ascending      09/30/202111/01/2021Biotechnology
ANTMRounding bottom      07/13/202110/14/2021Medical Services
APAThree Rising Valleys      08/19/202110/29/2021Petroleum (Producing)
APOGThree Rising Valleys      09/21/202110/20/2021Building Materials
ATOTriangle, ascending      10/14/202111/04/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
BCPCThree Rising Valleys      08/13/202110/29/2021Chemical (Specialty)
BECNUgly double bottom      10/06/202110/27/2021Retail Building Supply
BIGPipe bottom      09/27/202110/04/2021Retail Store
BGCup with handle      06/07/202111/03/2021Food Processing
CLSUgly double bottom      09/20/202109/29/2021Electronics
CLDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/06/202110/25/2021Household Products
EDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/04/202110/18/2021Electric Utility (East)
CSGSThree Rising Valleys      06/08/202109/28/2021IT Services
XRAYTriple bottom      10/06/202110/27/2021Medical Supplies
^DJUDiamond top      10/21/202111/01/2021None
XOMBroadening top      03/11/202110/26/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
FMCPipe bottom      10/04/202110/11/2021Chemical (Basic)
FDPTriple top      10/15/202111/01/2021Food Processing
FRDCup with handle      08/23/202111/04/2021Building Materials
GPSTriple bottom      10/11/202110/27/2021Apparel
HLITHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/26/2021Telecom. Equipment
HSCDead-cat bounce      11/02/202111/02/2021Diversified Co.
HPCup with handle      07/01/202111/04/2021Petroleum (Producing)
HSYDouble Top, Adam and Eve      10/15/202110/22/2021Food Processing
IIINPipe bottom      10/18/202110/25/2021Building Materials
IPIDead-cat bounce      11/02/202111/02/2021Chemical (Diversified)
KDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/19/202110/27/2021Food Processing
LHTriple bottom      10/06/202110/18/2021Medical Services
LANCTriple top      10/07/202110/26/2021Food Processing
RAMPScallop, ascending      10/15/202111/03/2021Computer Software and Svcs
MScallop, ascending      10/18/202111/03/2021Retail Store
MTRNHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/26/202110/21/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
MSRectangle top      08/06/202111/04/2021Securities Brokerage
NJRTriangle, ascending      10/15/202111/04/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/06/202110/28/2021Household Products
JWNBig W      09/13/202110/06/2021Retail Store
NVDAThree Rising Valleys      07/19/202110/04/2021Semiconductor
OUTScallop, ascending and inverted      09/10/202110/28/2021Advertising
OXMHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      08/19/202110/27/2021Apparel
PGDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/04/202110/19/2021Household Products
KWRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/20/202110/13/2021Chemical (Specialty)
RCKYDead-cat bounce      11/03/202111/03/2021Shoe
RESDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/11/202110/27/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SMGPipe bottom      09/13/202109/20/2021Chemical (Basic)
SSYSFlag, high and tight      10/01/202111/04/2021Electronics
TPRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/30/202110/08/2021Apparel
TDOCHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/16/202110/28/2021Healthcare Information
TZOOPipe top      10/18/202110/25/2021Internet
ZBRAUgly double bottom      10/11/202110/27/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 11/4/21. Bitcoin: BTC-USD

The index climbed by 1.0% or 161.98 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 249 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 160 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 89 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 231/400 or 57.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I tried to show bitcoin on the weekly scale, but my software didn't cooperate. So this is on the daily scale.

What I wanted to illustrate was overhead resistance setup by a prior peak. At D, you can see the coin bounced off overhead resistance (setup by a peak off the chart), and turned down for another try at a new high (to the right of D).

I drew two red trendlines on the chart. The coin is moving higher following those two trendlines. If the coin behaves like a stock, it should bounce off the top trendline (which it has, at D) and head lower. It's attempting to do just that but it looks like it's going to make another try for a new high.

A chart pattern called a measured move up, highlighted here by ABCD. After the pattern completes, you often see price return to the corrective phase of the pattern. That means a drop back to within BC. With the coin looking to head toward the top red trendline, it might break to a new high instead of retracing.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, ALL, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, AIG, ANIK, APA, AWI, ARW, ATO, AVNT, AXS, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BBY, BMY, BRKS, BLDR, BG, CDNS, CE, CNC, CRL, CHKP, CINF, CRH, CROX, CSGS, DDS, EBAY, FDX, FOE, FE, FMC, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPRO, HBI, HQY, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, INCY, NSP, IBP, IIIN, TILE, IPG, KELYA, KBAL, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LAWS, LDOS, M, MCHX, MTRX, FB, MGEE, MLKN, MLI, NFLX, NJR, NEE, NKE, JWN, NUS, OLN, OMI, PKE, PTEN, PFE, PCG, PINC, PG, KWR, RGS, RGA, REV, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SCHW, SMG, SWX, SCS, TPR, TFX, TPX, TZOO, UNM, VLO, WMT, WAT, WERN, WSM, XLNX, IYK, IYC, ITB, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWJ, EWS, EWL, THD, TUR, PBE, ROBO, IXC, XLE, GLD, XHB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,033.13    
 Monthly S1  14,922.35  889.23   
 Weekly S2  15,028.78  106.43   
 Monthly Pivot  15,213.24  184.46   
 Weekly S1  15,420.18  206.94   
 Weekly Pivot  15,462.15  41.97   
 Daily S2  15,544.73  82.58   
 Low  15,616.44  71.71   
 Open  15,658.52  42.08   
 Daily S1  15,678.16  19.64   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,694.80  16.64   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,719.00  24.21   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,743.21  24.21   
 Daily Pivot  15,749.86  6.65   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,811.58  61.72   
 High  15,821.57  9.99   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  15,853.55  31.98   
 Daily R1  15,883.29  29.74   
 Weekly R2  15,895.52  12.23   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  15,954.99  59.47   
 Monthly R1  16,102.46  147.47   
 Monthly R2  16,393.35  290.88   

Wednesday 11/3/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Last week I wrote about bearish divergence shown between the indicator and the composite. In this chart, we see the indicator reaching or approaching its upward limit (100) before backing off and the composite making a new high.

Indeed, today (Tuesday), the CPI dropped a bit from 90% to 81.5%. The indicator remains bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 26%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 46% on 11/03/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 22% on 11/03/2020.

The red line is the more sensitive of the two red and blue indicator lines. Today, the red line dipped by one percentage point compared to a week ago. That's bearish but not alarmingly so.

When you look at this chart, the trend of the red line is downward (bearish). The indicator peaked in March and remains below that peak. However, it has bounced off the low set in September.

We see a bullish CPI (prior) chart that has turned down. This chart has reversed a bearish trend begun in March. Will the markets continue to rise? It's a complex question to answer.

The historical trend says that the markets will rise going into the new year. These two charts are signaling caution, but it's mild, and they are bullish. What I'm saying is that the markets are soft so watch for bearish news sending them lower. If bearish news doesn't sway the markets, then that's bullish.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, ALRM, ALB, AEO, AXP, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BECN, BZH, BERY, BBY, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BRKS, BG, CE, CIEN, CGNX, CL, EBAY, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FE, FORM, FRD, GPS, GIS, GPN, GS, HLIT, HSC, HE, HELE, HOLX, DHI, HOV, JBHT, IEX, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, IVC, JBLU, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LH, LAWS, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDC, MOS, CNR, NEE, ORI, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PICO, POR, PG, PHM, DGX, RGS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SCHW, SMTC, SLGN, TPX, TOL, TZOO, TREX, UPS, VFC, VLO, VRTX, WRB, WU, ZBRA, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EPP, EWL, EWU, ROBO, XLE, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 11/2/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Eagle Materials

The index climbed by 0.3% or 94.28 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1121 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 618 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 503 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 231/414 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Eagle Materials: EXP 1

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 152 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AEIS, ALRM, ALB, AA, DOX, AEO, ANIK, ANTM, APA, APOG, ATR, ARCB, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BERY, BBY, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRKS, BG, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CMTL, CAG, COTY, CRH, CROX, CTS, EPAM, EFX, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FE, FLS, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GPS, GD, GIS, GNW, GL, GOOGL, HLIT, HP, HD, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, INOV, INTU, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KBAL, KLIC, LZB, LDOS, LLY, MTSI, M, MAS, MTRN, FB, MGEE, NCR, NXGN, JWN, NWPX, OLN, PDCO, PAYX, POR, PG, PEG, KWR, RJF, REV, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SIGI, NOW, SSYS, SRDX, TECH, TFX, RIG, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WDAY, ITA, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IGE, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWP, EWD, EWL, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IXC, XLY, XLE, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,090.05    
 Monthly S1  34,501.95  1,411.89   
 Monthly Pivot  35,197.43  695.49   
 Weekly S2  35,363.24  165.80   
 Weekly S1  35,638.54  275.30   
 Daily S2  35,695.41  56.88   
 Weekly Pivot  35,765.73  70.32   
 Low  35,797.97  32.24   
 Daily S1  35,804.63  6.66   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Open  35,833.65  29.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,878.87  45.22   
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,903.86  24.99   
 Daily Pivot  35,907.18  3.33   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  35,913.84  6.66   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,928.84  15.00   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  36,009.74  80.89   
 Daily R1  36,016.40  6.66   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  36,041.03  24.63   
 Daily R2  36,118.95  77.92   
 Weekly R2  36,168.22  49.27   
 Monthly R1  36,609.33  441.11   
 Monthly R2  37,304.81  695.48   

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Monday 11/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for November, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 29 October 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+101%)
2. Financials (+67%)
5. Real estate (+40%)
4. Information technology (+38%)
3. Communication services (+36%)
6. Industrials (+35%)
7. Materials (+34%)
9. Consumer discretionary (+28%)
8. Health care (+25%)
10. Consumer staples (+12%)
11. Utilities (+4%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
5. Financials
4. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Real estate
10. Materials
11. Utilities

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 10/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance. This list is for one year performance.

1. Real estate management and development (134%)
4. Energy equipment and services (+105%)
6. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+100%)
2. Consumer finance (+88%)
3. Construction and engineering (+85%)
5. Banks (+84%)
7. Automobiles (+79%)
8. Capital markets (66%)
9. Auto components (+64%)
10. Communications equipment (53%)

Here's a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AA, ADS, AEO, AEL, APOG, ATR, AIZ, AXS, BAX, BECN, BERY, BBY, BRC, BRKS, BG, CX, CENX, CHS, CHD, CSCO, ED, CAG, COTY, CTS, DHR, DRQ, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EQT, RE, FFIV, FOE, FE, FRD, GNW, GL, GOOGL, HBI, HE, HAYN, HQY, HON, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, KALU, KLAC, LH, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MDT, MYGN, NXGN, NVDA, OLN, PTEN, RJF, RGA, RLI, SWX, SCS, SUM, TGT, TG, UGI, VLO, WRB, FDN, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWW, EZA, EWY, THD, PPA, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Precision Instrument2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Retail Store3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Shoe4. Securities Brokerage
5. Trucking/Transp. Leasing5. Retail Store
6. IT Services6. Shoe
7. Petroleum (Integrated)7. Precision Instrument
8. Computer Software and Svcs8. Insurance (Diversified)
9. Drug9. Human Resources
10. Securities Brokerage10. IT Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Building Materials
51. Packaging and Container51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Metal Fabricating52. Metal Fabricating
53. Furn/Home Furnishings53. Medical Services
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Telecom. Equipment
55. Financial Services55. Household Products
56. Short ETFs56. Air Transport
57. Telecom. Equipment57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Air Transport58. Homebuilding
59. Apparel59. Short ETFs
60. Homebuilding60. Apparel

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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