Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/26/2021
  Indus: 34,899 -905.04 -2.5%  
  Trans: 16,216 -610.57 -3.6%  
  Utils: 907 -15.90 -1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 15,492 -353.57 -2.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 -106.84 -2.3%  
YTD
 +14.0%  
 +29.7%  
 +4.9%  
 +20.2%  
 +22.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2021  
  Up arrow38,000 or 35,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow17,700 or 16,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow935 or 890 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,350 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow4,850 or 4,560 by 12/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/17/21
As of 11/26/2021
  Indus: 34,899 -905.04 -2.5%  
  Trans: 16,216 -610.57 -3.6%  
  Utils: 907 -15.90 -1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 15,492 -353.57 -2.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 -106.84 -2.3%  
YTD
 +14.0%  
 +29.7%  
 +4.9%  
 +20.2%  
 +22.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2021  
  Up arrow38,000 or 35,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow17,700 or 16,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow935 or 890 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,350 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow4,850 or 4,560 by 12/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/17/21

 

October 2021 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 10/28/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.0% or 0.13 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 690 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 392 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 298 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 56.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 230/399 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At D, the composite made a broadening top chart pattern. The height of the pattern added to the breakout price is the measure rule, which forms a target. At A, the composite almost met the target.

The two peaks at AB form a second chart pattern called a Adam & Eve double top. It hasn't confirmed as a valid chart pattern because the composite hasn't closed below C, the lowest valley between the two peaks.

Not shown is that the chart pattern indicator has flipped to red (bearish), a change I felt would happen and discussed it yesterday. I'm looking for the downtrend to continue.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 209 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, AFL, APD, AA, ALKS, ADS, ALL, AEE, AEP, AEL, AMGN, APH, ANIK, ANTM, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BLL, BSET, BZH, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BAH, BRC, BMY, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CAL, CPB, CLS, CENX, CLX, CL, CAG, CONN, COTY, CSGS, CTS, CMI, CW, DECK, DDS, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DOV, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EL, RE, FFIV, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FRD, IT, GE, GIS, GNW, GPN, GL, EVRG, GES, HE, HAYN, HSY, HOV, IEX, ITW, INCY, IIIN, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KSS, LHX, LH, LANC, LEG, LMT, MHO, MTSI, M, MNDT, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NEU, NUS, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PATK, PRFT, PETS, PINC, PFG, PGR, PEG, KWR, REV, RLI, ROST, RES, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SWN, SR, TFX, TPX, TDC, TMO, TOL, TREX, VFC, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, VC, WAT, WEX, ZBRA, ITA, IYK, IDU, QTEC, FXL, ICF, IYH, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWL, TUR, QLD, PPA, PBE, PJP, XLP, XLE, XLV, XHB, XRT, XAR, XLU, VHT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,029.13    
 Monthly S1  14,632.48  603.36   
 Weekly S2  14,708.15  75.67   
 Monthly Pivot  14,927.37  219.21   
 Weekly S1  14,972.00  44.63   
 Weekly Pivot  15,097.12  125.13   
 Daily S2  15,150.04  52.92   
 Daily S1  15,192.94  42.90   
 Close  15,235.84  42.90   
 Low  15,235.84  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Close.
 Open  15,276.00  40.16   
 Daily Pivot  15,278.74  2.74   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,285.00  6.26   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,300.19  15.19   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,315.38  15.19   
 Daily R1  15,321.64  6.26   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  15,360.97  39.33   
 High  15,364.54  3.57   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  15,407.44  42.90   
 Weekly R2  15,486.09  78.65   
 Monthly R1  15,530.72  44.63   
 Monthly R2  15,825.61  294.88   

Wednesday 10/27/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

When I looked over my stock portfolio, many of the stocks showed the same thing: hesitation at or near a new high. It felt as if they were about to tumble.

As I look at this chart, I feel the same way. Bearish divergence appears at A versus B. The indicator is signaling that the market is weakening and about to drop. It might not drop far, and divergence can last for months.

The April to May period on the chart shows this. We have bearish divergence that lasted from late March to the red vertical line (early May). The index dropped after the red bar, but didn't go down far.

That's the kind of behavior I expect now. Toward the end of the year, I expect to see the indices making a smart move higher. That could come as early as next month (starting, and lasting into January).

Of course, I could be wrong about all of this. If the market likes earnings, it could power the market higher now, sending the CPI shooting upward as well and erasing the bearish divergence (because any signal can change for up to a week).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 25%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 52% on 10/30/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 14%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/28/2020.

Notice the similarity with this chart and the last one, but the bearish divergence in this chart isn't as pronounced. Both charts are predicting the market will tumble.

A lot of this is just a hunch, but I don't like the signals I'm seeing. 'Nuff said.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 199 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ALL, AYX, DOX, AEL, AFG, AMWD, APA, APOG, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AIZ, AGO, ATO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, BLL, BSET, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CINF, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, ED, CAG, CONN, COTY, CSGS, CTS, CMI, DECK, DOV, EXP, EIX, EQT, FFIV, FDX, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FTNT, FRD, GNW, GL, GS, GPRO, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HSII, HELE, HOV, IEX, ITW, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, INTU, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KSS, LZB, LH, LAMR, LEG, MTSI, M, MNDT, MCHX, MTRX, MU, MCO, MYGN, NOV, NUS, NVDA, OTEX, OXM, PATK, PTEN, PRFT, PINC, PFG, PEG, KWR, RGS, RLI, RES, SMG, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SWN, SUM, SNPS, TFX, TPX, TDC, TER, TEVA, TOL, TSCO, TREX, UPS, VFC, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, VC, WAT, WEX, WMB, XLNX, ZBRA, ITA, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IHF, IGV, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, IEV, XLE, XHB, XRT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/26/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.2% or 64.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1346 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 730 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 616 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 230/413 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Duke Energy: DUK.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AES, AFL, AKAM, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AFG, ABC, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADP, BLL, BAX, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIG, BMRN, BOOT, BAH, BRKS, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CHKP, CVX, CLNE, CMTL, CAG, CONN, COP, CROX, CMI, XRAY, BOOM, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FDS, FIS, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FTNT, FRD, GNW, GS, GGG, GFF, GES, HLIT, HSC, HL, HSII, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, INCY, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPG, IPI, NVTA, K, KFRC, KMB, LEG, LEN, LXU, MHO, MRO, MAS, MDC, MDT, MU, MCO, NOV, CNR, NWL, NOC, OXY, OLN, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PEG, RJF, SRE, SHW, SLGN, SO, SWX, SWN, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TPX, TEVA, TMO, TZOO, UPS, VFC, VRSN, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYE, IEO, IGE, EWC, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, DBA, PBE, ROBO, XLE, XLI, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,887.74    
 Monthly S1  34,314.45  1,426.70   
 Weekly S2  34,784.96  470.51   
 Monthly Pivot  35,039.73  254.78   
 Weekly S1  35,263.05  223.32   
 Weekly Pivot  35,514.04  250.98   
 Daily S2  35,561.52  47.48   
 Low  35,629.37  67.86   
 Daily S1  35,651.33  21.96   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,689.60  38.27   
 Open  35,692.62  3.02   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,708.20  15.58   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  35,719.19  10.98   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,726.81  7.62   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  35,741.15  14.34   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  35,787.04  45.89   
 Daily R1  35,809.00  21.96   
 Daily R2  35,876.86  67.85   
 Weekly R1  35,992.13  115.28   
 Weekly R2  36,243.12  250.98   
 Monthly R1  36,466.44  223.32   
 Monthly R2  37,191.72  725.29   

Monday 10/25/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale. I'll confine my remarks to recent price action.

AB is a Adam & Eve double top. That's a thin peak followed by a wide peak topping out near the same price. It confirms that price is going down when the index closes below C, the lowest valley between the two peaks. Without 'confirmation' (a close below C), you just have squiggles on the price chart.

Pattern 123 is a three rising valleys chart pattern. That's three valleys which look similar in shape and importance (meaning don't mix a divot with a fjord). When the index closes above the tallest peak between the three valleys, it means price is going up.

In both patterns, price might not move far, so you have to count on your experience to make a buck trading the move.

The AB pattern led to a sizable drop (to the low at 1). The target for patterns is often the height of the pattern, from tallest peak to lowest valley within the pattern, added to the top of the pattern for upward breakouts or subtracted from the lowest valley for downward breakouts. In this case, the height is AC subtracted from C, becomes your target.

My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad) says that price reaches the target 54% of the time. So if you set a trigger to exit the trade at the target, you'll be wrong about half the time. In other words, be conservative.

The target is just a number to show how often price will meet or exceed the target. It won't attract price to drop that far. It's not magic. The stock (or index in this case) doesn't care what your target is. It'll drop as far as it drops. Period. So I look for nearby support areas and use that as a target.

For pattern 123, it looks like the target is still further above where the index is now. So we'll have to wait and see if the index will continue to climb. My concern is that it'll do a 2B pattern (meaning a slightly higher peak above A before it reverses) and drop. That's what I expect but with November and December coming, there's a good chance it'll just continue to rise.

I guess what I'm saying is be optimistic but cautious.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 36.15 points.
Tuesday: Up 198.7 points.
Wednesday: Up 152.03 points.
Thursday: Down 6.26 points.
Friday: Up 73.94 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 382.26 points or 1.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 192.86 points or 1.3%.
The S&P 500 index was up 73.53 points or 1.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.2% down from the high of 35,765.02 on 10/22/2021.
     19.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.0% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     21.7% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.3% down from the high of 4,559.67 on 10/22/2021.
     24.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,428  35,552  35,659  35,783  35,890 
Weekly  34,764  35,220  35,493  35,949  36,222 
Monthly  32,866  34,272  35,018  36,424  37,170 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,507  4,526  4,543  4,562  4,579 
Weekly  4,405  4,475  4,517  4,587  4,630 
Monthly  4,193  4,369  4,464  4,640  4,736 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,929  15,010  15,101  15,182  15,273 
Weekly  14,660  14,875  15,049  15,264  15,438 
Monthly  13,981  14,535  14,879  15,434  15,777 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 142 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALK, ALB, AA, AMED, AXP, AFG, AMWD, ANIK, AON, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AGO, ADP, AVY, BSET, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BRC, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CACI, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CMTL, CONN, COST, CROX, DUK, EMN, EBAY, EVH, FOE, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FRD, GNW, GGG, GFF, HQY, HL, HSII, HSY, DHI, HOV, IEX, IIIN, IPAR, IPI, INTU, NVTA, KALU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, LH, LDOS, LEN, LXU, MRTN, MDC, MLHR, MCO, NTAP, NWL, NUS, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PFE, PLXS, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, RHI, SMG, SHW, SO, SWX, SUM, TGT, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TOL, TRV, TG, VLO, VMI, VEEV, WRB, WMT, ZBRA, IYK, IHE, ICF, SOXX, EEM, EWQ, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, XLE, XLI, XLB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Securities Brokerage4. Human Resources
5. Retail Store5. Securities Brokerage
6. Shoe6. Insurance (Diversified)
7. Precision Instrument7. Precision Instrument
8. Insurance (Diversified)8. Information Services
9. Human Resources9. Retail Store
10. IT Services10. Shoe
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Building Materials50. Building Materials
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Metal Fabricating52. Household Products
53. Medical Services53. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
54. Telecom. Equipment54. Short ETFs
55. Household Products55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Air Transport56. Telecom. Equipment
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Medical Services
58. Homebuilding58. Homebuilding
59. Short ETFs59. Apparel
60. Apparel60. Air Transport

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/22/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALK, AA, AEL, AXP, ABC, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ASH, BSET, BZH, BA, BRC, BMY, CPB, CLS, CX, CHS, CLNE, CMTL, CONN, COTY, CROX, DECK, ^DJT, DOV, WIRE, RE, EVH, FIVN, FMC, FRD, GNW, HTLD, HL, HSII, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDA, IEX, IIIN, IPAR, IPG, INTU, NVTA, KALU, KFRC, KLAC, LAWS, LXU, MSFT, ^IXIC, CNR, NKE, NVDA, OMC, ASGN, OMI, PATK, PAYX, PYPL, PICO, PPG, PINC, QCOM, DGX, RMBS, RCKY, CRM, SEIC, SMTC, NOW, SWX, TDOC, TMO, TJX, TSCO, TG, SLCA, VRSN, WU, WDAY, ZBRA, IYK, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IGV, EWZ, EIS, EWY, EWL, QLD, QQQ, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 570 stocks searched, or 3.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFTriangle, descending      09/29/202110/21/2021Apparel
ALKSHead-and-shoulders top      09/24/202110/15/2021Drug
AMGNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/12/202110/18/2021Biotechnology
ANIKTriangle, symmetrical      09/21/202110/21/2021Biotechnology
ATRScallop, descending      09/03/202110/15/2021Packaging and Container
BIGDiamond bottom      09/08/202110/21/2021Retail Store
CALTriangle, symmetrical      09/01/202110/21/2021Shoe
CONNPipe bottom      10/04/202110/11/2021Retail (Special Lines)
DTriple bottom      10/01/202110/18/2021Electric Utility (East)
RECup with handle      08/17/202110/21/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
FRDRounding bottom      08/23/202110/21/2021Building Materials
HSIIPipe top      10/04/202110/11/2021Human Resources
IPARDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/07/202110/15/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
LRCXScallop, descending      09/27/202110/19/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
NBRFlag, high and tight      08/20/202110/21/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OGEBroadening bottom      09/20/202110/15/2021Electric Utility (Central)
SMGTriangle, symmetrical      10/06/202110/21/2021Chemical (Basic)
TDCTriangle, ascending      09/09/202110/21/2021Computer Software and Svcs
TRVTriple bottom      09/20/202110/18/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ZBRAPipe bottom      10/04/202110/11/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 10/21/21. DOGE Cryptocurrency

The Nasdaq index dropped by 0.0% or -7.41 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 689 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 391 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 298 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 56.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/398 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Picture of the doge coin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency DOGE on the daily scale.

Let's take it apart, starting from the scale. This dog trades below a dollar. It closed today at 25 cents. I don't use the log scale on this chart because my program doesn't handle below-dollar amounts well.

I saw that peaks formed a line so I drew the red down-sloping trendline. The coin pierces that line and closes above it today. That suggests the value of the coin is going to rise.

Below that line is a head-and-shoulders bottom, labeled LS (for left shoulder), head, and RS (right shoulder). The neckline for the pattern is the blue line (A) which I drew horizontal. A traditionally drawn neckline would slope upward and that would mean a delay in the buy signal. A buy signal occurs when price closes above the neckline.

In this case, a close above the blue line confirms the head-and-shoulders as a valid chart pattern. It would also be the buy signal. The chart pattern is just squiggles on the chart until we get confirmation. But the red trendline pierce could be used as an early entry signal for those adventurous to own the coin.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 143 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AEIS, ALK, AA, AMZN, AMED, AEE, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, ASH, ADP, BLL, BIG, BIIB, EPAY, BRKS, CBT, CDNS, CX, CHKP, CSCO, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CONN, COST, COTY, CROX, CCRN, DHR, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJI, EMN, EPAM, EQT, RE, EVH, FAST, FE, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FORM, FRD, IT, GIS, GL, EVRG, HL, HSII, HOV, IEX, NVTA, KFRC, LEG, LLY, L, LXU, MRO, MSFT, MCO, MOS, NEE, NI, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, OMI, PTEN, PYPL, PPL, PINC, PFG, PEG, DGX, RJF, RNG, RCKY, ^GSPC, CRM, SRE, SWX, SUM, SNPS, TPX, TMO, VEEV, VMC, WEX, ZBRA, IHI, ICF, IYH, IHF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, EWU, PEJ, ROBO, SSO, MXI, XLE, GLD, XLV, XLI, SPY, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,995.61    
 Weekly S2  14,359.37  363.76   
 Monthly S1  14,558.65  199.27   
 Weekly S1  14,740.53  181.88   
 Weekly Pivot  14,822.75  82.23   
 Monthly Pivot  14,887.04  64.29   
 Daily S2  15,016.50  129.46   
 Daily S1  15,069.09  52.59   
 Low  15,071.15  2.06   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,112.12  40.96   
 Close  15,121.68  9.56   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  15,123.74  2.06   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,124.77  1.03   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,137.42  12.65   
 Open  15,160.00  22.58   
 Daily R1  15,176.33  16.33   
 High  15,178.39  2.06   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  15,203.91  25.52   
 Daily R2  15,230.98  27.07   
 Weekly R2  15,286.13  55.15   
 Monthly R1  15,450.08  163.94   
 Monthly R2  15,778.47  328.40   

Wednesday 10/20/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

A buy signal, shown here by the vertical green bar on the right of the chart, appeared in early October. Since then, the index has recovered.

You can also see bullish divergence between the thin blue line starting in September and the index. The blue line dropped to near or at 0 (underneath the red bar) even as the index peaked. Then the two lines headed in different directions. The blue line climbed and the index dropped.

Right now, the blue line is near the top of the scale, suggesting the index is going to hit resistance and reverse. That makes sense because the index is approaching the September high, a known location for resistance.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 30%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 52% on 10/30/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 460 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/28/2020.

From a week ago, the two (red and blue) lines have improved. Both lines are trending higher, seemingly pulled upward by the index.

On this chart, I don't see any signs of weakness (overhead resistance) that the prior chart hinted at.

These two charts, taken together, don't present a clear forecast of what will happen. They don't even show a forecast of what might happen. That's typical, of course. I stake my position and then look for details which back my position. I found a hint in the CPI chart but not this one. This chart, one could argue, sees the red line rising to the level of a prior red-line peak. Same for the blue line. It's overhead resistance but does it matter?

As you look at the red line, you can see evidence that supports both sides, that there's resistance to a prior peak shown by the red line and yet evidence that it just ignores that peak and continues higher.

What I'm saying is be careful. The index is at a resistance zone and it might reverse.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ADBE, AES, ALK, AA, AEL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BOOT, CX, CHS, CHD, CLNE, CLX, CTSH, CAG, CONN, COTY, CRH, CROX, CTS, CW, WIRE, RE, EVH, FFIV, FAST, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FRD, IT, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HL, HSII, HOV, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, LAMR, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MCO, MLI, CNR, NTAP, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKG, PRFT, QCOM, DGX, REV, RLI, SAIA, NOW, SKX, SWX, TPR, TFX, TDC, TMO, TJX, TRV, TZOO, VEEV, VRTX, WRB, WMT, WAT, WOLF, ZBRA, FTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IHF, IGV, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLE, XLI, SPY, XLK, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/19/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.1% or -36.15 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1360 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 709 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 651 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/412 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 43/90 or 47.8% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Diamond offshore: DO.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AMD, AES, ALB, AA, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, BAX, BZH, BIG, BMRN, BKH, CHS, CINF, CNO, CTSH, CAG, COST, CROX, CW, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EXP, EOG, RE, FB, FDS, FICO, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, IT, GILD, GS, GOOGL, GGG, HLIT, HE, HSIC, DHI, ITW, INFN, IBKR, ISRG, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KSS, LRCX, LEG, M, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MSFT, MCO, MOS, NBR, NJR, OXM, PKG, PYPL, PRFT, DGX, RNG, RHI, ROST, SWN, SR, SSYS, SRDX, TPX, TER, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TREX, WMT, WSO, WERN, IYE, ITB, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IAT, IGV, SOXX, EIS, EWM, IBB, IXN, GLD, XHB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,022.93    
 Weekly S2  33,692.36  669.43   
 Monthly S1  34,140.77  448.41   
 Weekly S1  34,475.48  334.71   
 Monthly Pivot  34,730.87  255.39   
 Weekly Pivot  34,898.23  167.36   
 Daily S2  34,915.74  17.52   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  35,035.94  120.20   
 Daily S1  35,087.18  51.23   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,147.34  60.17   
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,181.75  34.41   
 Daily Pivot  35,207.38  25.62   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,216.17  8.79   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  35,221.02  4.85   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  35,258.61  37.59   
 High  35,327.57  68.96   
 Daily R1  35,378.80  51.23   
 Daily R2  35,499.00  120.20   
 Weekly R1  35,681.35  182.35   
 Monthly R1  35,848.71  167.36   
 Weekly R2  36,104.10  255.39   
 Monthly R2  36,438.81  334.71   

Monday 10/18/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Let's take the chart by colors. The two converging green lines form a symmetrical triangle. The chart pattern broke out upward and then threw back to F before trying to rise again to a new high (which it failed to achieve).

To the right of that pattern is DEF. That's a double top. Peaks DE are close to each other in price and the pattern confirms as valid when the index drops below the blue line (F) on the way to A.

Pattern ABC is similar except it's a double bottom. It confirms when the index closes above the red line C.

The index is now powering higher. That's a continuation gap by the way (separating the last two price bars on the chart. It might be an exhaustion gap, and another day will confirm that). I'm looking for the upward move to continue.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 250.19 points.
Tuesday: Down 117.72 points.
Wednesday: Down 0.53 points.
Thursday: Up 534.75 points.
Friday: Up 382.2 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 548.51 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 317.5 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 80.03 points or 1.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.9% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     18.2% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     3.3% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     20.2% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.6% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     22.1% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,916  35,105  35,213  35,403  35,510 
Weekly  33,704  34,500  34,910  35,705  36,116 
Monthly  33,035  34,165  34,743  35,873  36,451 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,437  4,454  4,465  4,482  4,493 
Weekly  4,280  4,376  4,426  4,521  4,572 
Monthly  4,213  4,342  4,418  4,547  4,622 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,826  14,862  14,883  14,919  14,940 
Weekly  14,285  14,591  14,748  15,054  15,211 
Monthly  13,921  14,409  14,812  15,301  15,704 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 230 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AFL, ATSG, AA, AEL, AFG, APH, AON, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BMRN, BKH, CAL, CE, CX, CNP, CENX, CF, CRL, CVX, CHS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CRH, DVN, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, D, DRQ, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, FB, FAST, FOE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GL, GPRO, GES, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HP, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, JBHT, ITW, INFN, INOV, IIIN, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, LH, LANC, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MDT, MGEE, MSFT, MS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NCR, NFLX, NJR, OGE, ORI, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKG, PETS, PFE, PCG, PLXS, POR, KWR, RMBS, RJF, RNG, RHI, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SEIC, LUV, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TDC, TER, TXT, TKR, TJX, TRV, VMI, WRB, WSO, WEX, WOLF, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLI, SPY, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Human Resources
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Human Resources4. Precision Instrument
5. Securities Brokerage5. Insurance (Diversified)
6. Insurance (Diversified)6. Securities Brokerage
7. Precision Instrument7. Information Services
8. Information Services8. Natural Gas (Diversified)
9. Retail Store9. Retail Store
10. Shoe10. Drug
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Building Materials50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Household Products
52. Household Products52. Short ETFs
53. Semiconductor Cap Equip.53. Medical Services
54. Short ETFs54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Telecom. Equipment56. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
57. Medical Services57. Telecom. Equipment
58. Homebuilding58. Apparel
59. Apparel59. Homebuilding
60. Air Transport60. Air Transport

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/15/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADBE, AES, AFL, APD, AA, ADS, DOX, AXP, AIG, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ARW, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BMI, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BG, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CNP, CHD, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CTSH, CSOD, CR, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EMN, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FICO, FE, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GPN, GOOGL, HLIT, HSC, HSII, HELE, HSY, HUBG, JBHT, IEX, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IVC, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MSFT, NBR, NFG, CNR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NVDA, OGE, OLN, OMCL, OXM, PRFT, PPG, PG, RGS, RNG, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TG, VEEV, WMT, WLK, WEX, WMB, IYM, IYK, ITB, IHI, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, ROBO, IEV, MXI, XLY, XLP, GLD, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 571 stocks searched, or 6.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEISTriangle, symmetrical      08/17/202110/14/2021Semiconductor
ALBTriangle, descending      09/20/202110/12/2021Chemical (Diversified)
AMWDTriangle, symmetrical      09/21/202110/13/2021Building Materials
APHDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/30/202110/13/2021Electronics
ARCBCup with handle      05/10/202110/13/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
AGORounding bottom      08/25/202110/11/2021Insurance (Life)
AVNTTriangle, ascending      09/09/202110/13/2021Chemical (Specialty)
CNABroadening bottom      08/12/202110/11/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
COTYBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/08/202110/14/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
EQTPipe top      09/27/202110/04/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
ELHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/12/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
RERounding bottom      08/17/202110/14/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/04/202110/11/2021Electric Utility (East)
FWRDTriangle, symmetrical      09/22/202110/14/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
FCXHorn bottom      09/20/202110/04/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
FRDHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/30/202110/11/2021Building Materials
HLBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/17/202110/14/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
NSPScallop, ascending      09/03/202110/08/2021Human Resources
JAZZBroadening bottom      08/31/202110/08/2021Biotechnology
KALUBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/27/202110/14/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
LZBDiamond bottom      09/17/202110/14/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
LAWSTriangle, symmetrical      09/14/202110/14/2021Metal Fabricating
MASHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/13/2021Building Materials
NOVBroadening bottom      08/24/202110/11/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OMCRectangle bottom      07/21/202110/14/2021Advertising
RNGBroadening bottom      09/15/202110/13/2021Computer Software and Svcs
ROKHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/21/202110/12/2021Diversified Co.
NOWTriple bottom      09/29/202110/11/2021IT Services
TDOCPipe bottom      09/27/202110/04/2021Healthcare Information
TGTriangle, symmetrical      09/02/202110/14/2021Chemical (Specialty)
VMCTriangle, symmetrical      09/20/202110/14/2021Cement and Aggregates
WEXUgly double bottom      09/21/202110/12/2021Information Services
WMBRounding bottom      06/07/202110/08/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
XELDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/28/202110/11/2021Electric Utility (West)
MGKHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/20/202110/13/2021None

 

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Thursday 10/14/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.7% or 105.72 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 440 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 268 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 172 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 228/397 or 57.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The composite formed a small triple bottom at 1, 2, 3. The pattern confirmed when the composite closed above red line A. That was a buy signal, but it hasn't amounted to much...so far anyway.

If you take the height of the chart pattern (from A to 3, the tallest part of the pattern) and add it to A, you can get a target. In stocks, price will reach the target 74% of the time according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition #ad.

If I had to guess, I'd say the composite will move higher and that assessment agrees with the above prediction, too.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AES, APD, ALK, AA, AMWD, AMN, ANIK, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, BIG, BMRN, BRKS, BG, CBT, CNC, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CSOD, CCK, DDS, D, DUK, BOOM, EMR, WIRE, EZPW, FLS, FCX, HSII, ITW, INFN, NSP, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, KMT, LAWS, RAMP, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, NXGN, OLN, PKG, PRFT, PFE, KWR, QCOM, RL, RJF, RNG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SWN, SUM, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TEVA, TREX, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, XEL, XLNX, IYM, FXL, EWO, ECH, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWS, EWY, PXJ, XLP, GLD, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,686.93    
 Monthly S1  14,129.29  442.35   
 Daily S2  14,426.88  297.59   
 Weekly S2  14,446.31  19.43   
 Low  14,471.89  25.58   
 Daily S1  14,499.26  27.37   
 Weekly S1  14,508.97  9.71   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,516.73  7.76   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,530.58  13.85   
 Open  14,537.17  6.58   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  14,544.27  7.10   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,544.44  0.17   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,571.64  27.20   
 High  14,589.28  17.64   
 Daily R1  14,616.65  27.37   
 Weekly Pivot  14,632.35  15.70   
 Daily R2  14,661.66  29.31   
 Weekly R1  14,695.01  33.35   
 Monthly Pivot  14,766.36  71.35   
 Weekly R2  14,818.39  52.02   
 Monthly R1  15,208.72  390.33   
 Monthly R2  15,845.79  637.08   

Wednesday 10/13/21. A Look At Indicators: Stealth Bullish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal, shown by the vertical red line on the right of the chart, is still in place. However, look at the CPI line, the thin blue line near chart bottom.

It has been climbing even as the S & P index has been dropping. That's bullish divergence. It suggests a return of the bulls, which will push the index upward.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 30% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 33%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 52% on 10/30/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 461 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/28/2020.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from a week ago. This is another indication of the market firming up, that it will begin to recover from the weakness which took it lower starting in September.

The two charts suggest the retrace is coming to an end. But with bullish divergence like we see here, it could last months before we see a recovery.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AJRD, AES, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALL, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, ADP, BMI, BIG, BKNG, BMY, CACI, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CINF, CTXS, CMCO, CAG, COTY, CR, CCK, CTS, CMI, DDS, BOOM, EMN, EMR, EFX, FFIV, FB, FIS, FMC, FTNT, FCX, HL, ITW, ILMN, IPG, JAZZ, KELYA, KLAC, LRCX, MHO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MSFT, NEU, NXGN, OMCL, PKG, PRFT, PFE, PINC, PFG, PGR, RL, RNG, SAIC, SWN, SR, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TG, TREX, WLK, WMB, IYK, IHE, IAT, IYF, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWT, THD, DBA, PJP, XLF, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/12/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.7% or -250.19 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 585 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 290 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 295 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/412 or 55.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/89 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Continental Air: CAL 2

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, APD, ALRM, AYX, AMZN, AXP, ANTM, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ADSK, ADP, BLL, BSET, BIG, BIO, BKNG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CPB, CLS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CINF, CNA, CMCO, CAG, CSOD, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CMI, DFS, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EMR, EPAM, EFX, EQT, RE, EVH, EZPW, FDS, FICO, FDX, FIS, FISV, FLS, FORM, FCX, FRD, GPN, GL, GS, HSC, HE, HTLD, HSII, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, DHI, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, IPI, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, RAMP, L, LOW, M, MRTN, MCO, MS, MOS, MLI, ^IXIC, NCR, OGE, OUT, PKG, PANW, PINC, PFG, DGX, RMBS, RGA, RES, SLB, SEIC, SIGI, SKX, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TPX, TEVA, VMC, WU, WMB, IAI, IHI, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EWT, TUR, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLF, XHB, SPY, XLK, UNG, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,733.90    
 Monthly S1  33,614.98  881.08   
 Daily S2  34,179.80  564.82   
 Weekly S2  34,194.85  15.05   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  34,337.93  143.08   
 Weekly S1  34,345.46  7.53   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  34,486.51  141.05   
 Monthly Pivot  34,494.11  7.60   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Close  34,496.06  1.95   Yes! The Close is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  34,644.64  148.58   
 Weekly Pivot  34,660.32  15.68   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,664.08  3.75   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,718.93  54.85   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,773.78  54.85   
 Daily R1  34,802.77  28.99   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly R1  34,810.93  8.16   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Open  34,823.79  12.86   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly R1.
 High  34,951.35  127.56   
 Daily R2  35,109.48  158.13   
 Weekly R2  35,125.79  16.31   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  35,375.19  249.40   
 Monthly R2  36,254.32  879.13   

Monday 10/11/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At AB is a chart pattern familiar to many of you, I'm sure. It's called a Eve & Eve double top. I consider it an Eve top at A because the number of days between spike A and the one to the left is less than 5. Peak B is wide enough by itself to be an Eve top, too.

The patterns turn from squiggles on the chart to a valid double top when the average closes below line C.

The utilities made a strong push lower, bottoming just before October started. It bounced and is now heading lower again. The reason for this, I think, is that the markets believe interest rates are going to rise and that's bad for utility companies. Their borrowing costs will climb.

I expect the utilities to continue lower, as I show with line D.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Thursday: Up 428.48 points.
Friday: Down 8.69 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 419.79 points or 1.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 13.14 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 34.3 points or 0.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.5% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     16.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     5.3% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     17.6% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     3.4% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     19.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,570  34,658  34,750  34,839  34,931 
Weekly  34,278  34,512  34,744  34,978  35,209 
Monthly  32,817  33,782  34,578  35,542  36,338 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,371  4,381  4,397  4,407  4,422 
Weekly  4,355  4,373  4,402  4,420  4,448 
Monthly  4,158  4,275  4,405  4,522  4,652 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,486  14,533  14,616  14,663  14,747 
Weekly  14,449  14,514  14,635  14,700  14,821 
Monthly  13,690  14,135  14,769  15,214  15,849 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 5 days.

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADBE, ALRM, AYX, AMZN, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ADSK, ADP, AVY, BLL, BZH, BIO, BRC, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CLS, CRL, CVX, CAG, COP, CLR, CSOD, CCRN, CCK, EPAM, EFX, EQT, XOM, FICO, FISV, GPS, GPN, GES, HLIT, HSC, HE, HTLD, HOLX, HON, DHI, IDA, IDXX, INFN, ITGR, KALU, KELYA, KMT, LDOS, LNC, L, LXU, MHO, MRO, MGEE, MU, MCO, MYGN, ^IXIC, NOV, NCR, NWL, NUS, OXY, OGE, OMI, OXM, PKG, PRFT, PNW, PRU, DGX, RL, RMBS, SCHW, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SKX, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TPX, TDC, TSCO, RIG, UPS, VMC, WSO, WU, WMB, WOLF, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IGE, EWC, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EWP, TUR, EWU, QLD, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, PHO, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLE, XHB, XLB, SPY, XLK, USO, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Human Resources2. Human Resources
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Precision Instrument
4. Precision Instrument4. Medical Supplies
5. Insurance (Diversified)5. Shoe
6. Securities Brokerage6. Drug
7. Information Services7. Insurance (Diversified)
8. Natural Gas (Diversified)8. Retail Store
9. Retail Store9. IT Services
10. Drug10. E-Commerce
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Household Products
51. Household Products51. Apparel
52. Short ETFs52. Short ETFs
53. Medical Services53. Chemical (Basic)
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Electric Utility (West)
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Semiconductor Cap Equip.56. Medical Services
57. Telecom. Equipment57. Metal Fabricating
58. Apparel58. Telecom. Equipment
59. Homebuilding59. Air Transport
60. Air Transport60. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday to Friday 10/4/21 to 10/8/2021. Quiz Week

Take one of these quizzes each day. All of them are based on actual trades I've made, some of them recently.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time, ending Friday 10/1/2021. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 71.37 points.
Tuesday: Down 569.38 points.
Wednesday: Up 90.73 points.
Thursday: Down 546.8 points.
Friday: Up 482.54 points.

For the Week Ending 10/1...

The Dow industrials were down 471.54 points or 1.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 481 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 98.44 points or 2.2%.

Year to Date, Ending 10/1...

Dow Industrials
     3.7% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     15.0% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     5.4% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     17.5% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     4.2% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     19.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, AJRD, ALK, AFG, ABC, APH, AWI, BLL, BRC, CPB, CNP, CHD, CTSH, CREE, DECK, DRQ, DUK, EBAY, EQT, FOE, FTNT, GILD, HQY, HSII, HURC, ILMN, INOV, INTC, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, JCOM, K, KMB, LH, LAWS, LXU, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MRK, MUR, NOV, NCR, NEU, PKG, PANW, PDCO, PFE, PINC, PG, PGR, RJF, SLB, SMG, SLGN, STMP, SSYS, TXN, TOL, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, VRTX, WSM, IYK, IYE, IHI, IEZ, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, EWO, EWZ, EWQ, EIS, EWL, EWT, QLD, IBB, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, XLE, XLV, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Precision Instrument
2. Human Resources2. Medical Supplies
3. Precision Instrument3. Human Resources
4. Medical Supplies4. Shoe
5. Shoe5. Retail Store
6. Drug6. Petroleum (Producing)
7. Insurance (Diversified)7. E-Commerce
8. Retail Store8. Drug
9. IT Services9. IT Services
10. E-Commerce10. Computer Software and Svcs
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Household Products50. Chemical (Specialty)
51. Apparel51. Household Products
52. Short ETFs52. Apparel
53. Chemical (Basic)53. Air Transport
54. Electric Utility (West)54. Chemical (Basic)
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. Medical Services
56. Medical Services56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Metal Fabricating57. Natural Gas (Distributor)
58. Telecom. Equipment58. Metal Fabricating
59. Air Transport59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
60. Homebuilding60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for October, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 30 September 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

4. Energy (+71%)
1. Financials (+59%)
2. Communication services (+38%)
7. Information technology (+29%)
6. Real estate (+29%)
5. Industrials (+28%)
3. Materials (+26%)
8. Health care (+24%)
9. Consumer discretionary (+20%)
11. Consumer staples (+11%)
10. Utilities (+9%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
5. Communication services
4. Financials
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
11. Energy
8. Real estate
9. Materials
10. Utilities

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 9/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance. This list is for one year performance.

1. Real estate management and development (108%)
2. Consumer finance (+98%)
3. Construction and engineering (+90%)
New. Energy equipment and services (+79%)
5. Banks (+78%)
New. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+71%)
New. Automobiles (+60%)
10. Capital markets (55%)
8. Auto components (+53%)
7. Electronic equipment instruments and components (47%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 227 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ACIW, AYI, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, ALL, AEO, AFG, AMWD, ABC, APH, ANTM, AON, APA, AAPL, ATR, ADM, ARW, AIZ, AVY, AVNT, BMI, BLL, BSET, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BRC, BLDR, CBT, CPB, CE, CNP, CVX, CINF, CSCO, CNA, CTSH, CL, COST, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, DHR, DECK, DDS, ^DJI, D, DRQ, EBAY, EQT, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FISV, FLS, IT, GD, GE, GILD, GL, EVRG, GFF, GES, HBI, HIG, HE, HQY, HELE, HP, HNI, HD, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDA, IEX, INOV, IBP, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, K, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KSS, LH, LANC, LAWS, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LMT, MHO, M, MRTN, MLM, MA, MTRX, MDT, MGEE, MU, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NJR, NEU, JWN, OGE, OMCL, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PRFT, PFE, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, PG, PHM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGA, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SLGN, SO, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TXT, TKR, TOL, TRV, TZOO, VEEV, VRTX, WMT, WMB, ITA, IYK, IHI, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, SLV, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWY, EWD, THD, QLD, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLP, GLD, XLV, XHB, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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