Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/26/2021
  Indus: 34,899 -905.04 -2.5%  
  Trans: 16,216 -610.57 -3.6%  
  Utils: 907 -15.90 -1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 15,492 -353.57 -2.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 -106.84 -2.3%  
YTD
 +14.0%  
 +29.7%  
 +4.9%  
 +20.2%  
 +22.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2021  
  Up arrow38,000 or 35,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow17,700 or 16,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow935 or 890 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,350 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow4,850 or 4,560 by 12/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/17/21
As of 11/26/2021
  Indus: 34,899 -905.04 -2.5%  
  Trans: 16,216 -610.57 -3.6%  
  Utils: 907 -15.90 -1.7%  
  Nasdaq: 15,492 -353.57 -2.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,595 -106.84 -2.3%  
YTD
 +14.0%  
 +29.7%  
 +4.9%  
 +20.2%  
 +22.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/12/2021  
  Up arrow38,000 or 35,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow17,700 or 16,000 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow935 or 890 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,350 by 12/01/2021
  Up arrow4,850 or 4,560 by 12/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/17/21

 

September 2021 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 9/30/21. Cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH-USD)

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.2% or -34.24 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 529 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 277 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 252 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 228/396 or 57.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

I last looked at the cryptocurrency on August 18. At that time I called the three valleys (123) a double bottom and that's accurate. Valleys 1 and 2 don't have 5 price bars between them, so I consider them one bottom. Thus, this pattern isn't a triple bottom (123) but a double bottom (13). It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the coin closes above red line 6.

Peaks 4 and 5 look like an ugly double top. I haven't studied those yet, but an ugly pattern is one where the two peaks are not near one another, as in this case. It confirms as a valid pattern when price closes below line 7.

The thinking here is that there's more of a down move to go. The height from 4 to 7 subtracted from 7 gives a target. So I would expect the coin to continue to drop.


$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, ALKS, AEO, ANTM, ARW, AVNT, BLL, BSET, BBBY, BA, BRC, BLDR, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CSCO, CMCO, COTY, CRH, DECK, DVN, DDS, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EBAY, EIX, EPAM, EQT, EL, RE, EXPD, FICO, FLS, FORM, GIS, GS, GOOGL, GES, HBI, HIG, HQY, HOV, HURC, ILMN, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, KELYA, KMB, KLAC, LAWS, LLY, LXU, M, MRTN, MLM, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MUR, ^IXIC, NOV, NEU, OMC, PANW, PYPL, PINC, PGR, RL, RMBS, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SMG, NOW, LUV, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TECH, TER, TXT, TKR, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, UPS, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, QLD, IBB, PBE, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, GLD, SPY, XLK, USO, SMH, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,941.95    
 Weekly S2  14,153.95  212.00   
 Monthly S1  14,227.19  73.25   
 Weekly S1  14,333.19  106.00   
 Daily S2  14,377.96  44.77   
 Daily S1  14,445.20  67.24   
 Low  14,493.67  48.47   
 Close  14,512.44  18.77   
 Daily Pivot  14,560.91  48.47   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,563.56  2.65   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,585.14  21.59   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,606.73  21.59   
 Open  14,614.88  8.15   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily R1  14,628.15  13.27   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  14,676.62  48.47   
 Weekly Pivot  14,709.32  32.70   
 Daily R2  14,743.86  34.54   
 Monthly Pivot  14,815.32  71.46   
 Weekly R1  14,888.56  73.25   
 Monthly R1  15,100.56  212.00   
 Weekly R2  15,264.69  164.12   
 Monthly R2  15,688.69  424.00   

Wednesday 9/29/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Any bullish signal has disappeared. See that spike in the CPI line (bottom of chart), late this month? It used to be taller, triggering a bullish green bar. But the indicator can change for up to a week and this is an example of that. The signal disappeared, replaced by the red bar on the right.

We've been bearish since early September. The CPI says we'll stay bearish for a time. It's also at or near 0, so the only way it can go is up...

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 35%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 52% on 10/30/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 464 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 25% on 10/28/2020.

Both of the above sets of numbers are exactly what they were a week ago, so I'm thinking I made a mistake. The charts are different though, so let's talk about them.

During the past week, the red line made a strong recovery and then dropped today (Tuesday night). The overall trend is downward, bearish. I mentioned the downtrend before, recently, how the red line used to be higher going back as far as March or April.

September is the weakest month of the year and it's almost over. October can be nasty or not but November is usually a strongly bullish month. The 2021 forecast suggests we've hit the low and we'll recover from here. That means a strong October, a wobbly November, to finish the year strong.

Although the charts shown in this post are bearish, I think the downtrend is about over. Just a guess...but I might buy the dip again to load up on my favorites.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 207 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, AES, AKAM, ALB, ALKS, ADS, AYX, AEL, AFG, AMWD, ABC, AMN, AON, APA, ATR, AWI, AVNT, AVA, BMI, BLL, BSET, BRC, BLDR, CPB, CE, CNP, CHD, CSCO, CTXS, CGNX, COP, CRH, CCK, DHR, DECK, DOV, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EBAY, EPAM, EQT, EL, RE, EXPD, FICO, FOE, FLS, FMC, GIS, GS, HIG, HQY, HL, HSII, HOLX, HD, HOV, HUBG, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, IPAR, TILE, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JAZZ, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, KMB, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LLY, L, LXU, MTSI, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MSFT, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NEU, NVDA, ORI, OMC, PAYX, PYPL, PFE, PG, PEG, DGX, RMBS, RJF, RLI, SLB, SMG, SEE, NOW, SHW, SWX, SR, STMP, SXI, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TER, TXT, TMO, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TG, VMI, VRSN, VMC, WMT, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, IHI, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWJ, EPP, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, MXI, XLP, GLD, XLV, USO, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/28/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.2% or 71.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1344 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 729 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.5% on 615 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/411 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/89 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Continental Air: CAL 1.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AES, APD, AEE, AXP, AIG, AON, APA, ACGL, BLL, BSET, BBY, BIG, BIO, BA, BLDR, COG, CPB, CE, CNC, CENX, CF, CVX, CHD, CLNE, CNO, ED, COP, CLR, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, D, DRQ, DTE, EXP, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, XOM, EZPW, FE, GE, GIS, GNW, GES, HBI, HIG, HL, HP, HOLX, HD, HOV, IBKR, TILE, KMB, LNC, LOW, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MSFT, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NKE, NI, NWPX, OXY, OLN, OMC, PKG, PTEN, POR, PG, PRU, RL, RMBS, RCKY, RES, SLB, SRE, SWN, TDC, RIG, TG, TREX, VLO, WLK, WMB, IAI, IYE, IHI, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, IBB, PPA, DBA, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLV, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,766.69    
 Weekly S2  33,187.31  420.62   
 Monthly S1  33,818.03  630.72   
 Weekly S1  34,028.34  210.31   
 Weekly Pivot  34,454.06  425.72   
 Daily S2  34,568.07  114.01   
 Monthly Pivot  34,664.37  96.30   
 Daily S1  34,718.72  54.35   
 Open  34,739.27  20.55   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  34,739.27  0.00   Yes! The Low is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,862.21  122.95   
 Close  34,869.37  7.16   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  34,889.92  20.55   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,900.20  10.27   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,938.17  37.98   
 Daily R1  35,040.57  102.40   
 High  35,061.12  20.55   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  35,211.77  150.65   
 Weekly R1  35,295.09  83.32   
 Monthly R1  35,715.71  420.62   
 Weekly R2  35,720.81  5.10   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  36,562.05  841.24   

Monday 9/27/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index was following a channel upward (red lines) for months and then it stumbled. Let's talk about that.

The index started its move down at C but then tumbled in one day, bottoming at A. It has rebounded to B which, eyeballing it, looks like a 50% retrace of the CA decline. My ruler tells me it's closer to 62% than 50% but I didn't calculate it.

I'm talking about a Fibonacci retrace here. If you read the research, the article ends with this note: "Fibonacci extensions work no better at predicting where price is going to turn than any other percentage." And yet I use them for guidance. Go figure.

If B is at resistance setup by the retrace value, then look for the index to drop again. It's at a knot of resistance, too, so that'll help price from rising.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 614.41 points.
Tuesday: Down 50.63 points.
Wednesday: Up 338.48 points.
Thursday: Up 506.5 points.
Friday: Up 33.18 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 213.12 points or 0.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 3.73 points or 0.0%.
The S&P 500 index was up 22.49 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.3% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     16.6% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.3% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     21.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.0% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     21.6% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,559  34,678  34,768  34,887  34,977 
Weekly  33,164  33,981  34,430  35,248  35,697 
Monthly  32,743  33,770  34,641  35,668  36,538 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,417  4,436  4,450  4,469  4,482 
Weekly  4,249  4,352  4,409  4,512  4,568 
Monthly  4,196  4,326  4,436  4,566  4,676 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,900  14,974  15,021  15,095  15,142 
Weekly  14,332  14,690  14,888  15,245  15,443 
Monthly  14,120  14,584  14,994  15,457  15,867 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 62 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AJRD, AES, AMED, ABC, AGO, BLL, BZH, BBBY, CDNS, CNC, CTS, EIX, EZPW, IT, GNW, GL, GGG, GFF, HIG, INTU, IVC, KMB, LEG, LMT, LOW, MRO, MCHX, NOV, NWPX, OMI, PICO, PPL, RGS, SCHW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, STMP, TECH, TOL, VRTX, WRB, ZBRA, IDU, FXI, ICF, IHF, IYZ, SLV, EWH, EWW, TUR, PXJ, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Medical Supplies2. Shoe
3. Human Resources3. Medical Supplies
4. Shoe4. Retail Store
5. Retail Store5. Computers and Peripherals
6. Petroleum (Producing)6. Computer Software and Svcs
7. E-Commerce7. E-Commerce
8. Drug8. IT Services
9. IT Services9. Human Resources
10. Computer Software and Svcs10. Drug
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Specialty)50. Machinery
51. Household Products51. Metals and Mining (Div.)
52. Apparel52. Insurance (Life)
53. Air Transport53. Telecom. Equipment
54. Chemical (Basic)54. Natural Gas (Distributor)
55. Medical Services55. Chemical (Basic)
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Chemical (Specialty)
57. Natural Gas (Distributor)57. Metal Fabricating
58. Metal Fabricating58. Apparel
59. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment59. Short ETFs
60. Short ETFs60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/24/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 102 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACN, AEIS, AES, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AEP, AXP, BMI, BLL, BOOT, BBW, CAL, CLS, CX, CNC, CF, CHS, CRH, CROX, ^DJT, D, DTE, EIX, EL, EZPW, FB, FDX, FORM, IT, GD, GL, HIG, HE, HL, TILE, INTU, IVC, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LOW, LXU, M, MRO, MCHX, MA, MU, MOS, NXGN, NKE, NI, OMC, ASGN, OUT, PAYX, PRFT, PHM, RCKY, CRM, SWN, SCS, SUM, TECH, VRSN, V, WRB, WLK, WEX, IAI, DDM, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, DBA, IEV, XLF, GLD. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 5.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (10) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AESTriangle, descending      07/13/202109/23/2021Electric Utility (East)
ALKSDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/07/202109/17/2021Drug
AEODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/08/202109/20/2021Apparel
AXPTriple bottom      08/19/202109/20/2021Financial Services
AMWDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/16/202109/21/2021Building Materials
APHBroadening wedge, descending      08/30/202109/21/2021Electronics
CVXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/19/202109/20/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
CHDTriangle, symmetrical      08/20/202109/23/2021Household Products
CGNXDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/31/202109/17/2021Precision Instrument
CAGTriangle, symmetrical      08/16/202109/23/2021Food Processing
CTSDiamond bottom      09/16/202109/23/2021Electronics
DFSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/08/202109/20/2021Financial Services
HOVRectangle top      07/29/202109/23/2021Homebuilding
INTUBroadening top      08/30/202109/23/2021Computer Software and Svcs
LENDiamond bottom      09/13/202109/23/2021Homebuilding
MHODiamond bottom      09/14/202109/23/2021Homebuilding
MTSIBroadening top      09/03/202109/23/2021Semiconductor
MTRXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/14/202109/20/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MUTriangle, descending      08/25/202109/23/2021Semiconductor
MURTriangle, symmetrical      08/12/202109/22/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
PGBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      07/30/202109/20/2021Household Products
RLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/08/202109/20/2021Apparel
RCKYTriangle, symmetrical      08/30/202109/22/2021Shoe
SLBTriangle, symmetrical      07/29/202109/23/2021Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SWNPipe top      09/07/202109/13/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
SNPSScallop, ascending and inverted      08/17/202109/22/2021Computer Software and Svcs
TJXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/13/202109/20/2021Retail Store
VLOHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/19/202109/20/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
IHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/13/202109/20/2021Medical Supplies

 

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Thursday 9/23/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 1.0% or 150.45 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 247 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 159 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 88 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 64.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 227/395 or 57.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index shows a double top at AB, confirmed when the index closed below the valley low marked by C.

Recently, a channel has appeared, shown here as two parallel red lines. The recovery is marching upward at a sustainable pace (about 45 degrees), so that's good.

Because the index is heading toward the bottom trendline, look for it to near or touch the trendline and bounce upward. There is some concern that the index could punch through the bottom line and head lower. The above probabilities suggest it's unlikely, though.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 115 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AJRD, ATSG, AKAM, AA, AYX, AEE, AIG, APH, ANTM, ARCB, AWI, ARW, BMI, BLL, BZH, BBBY, BIIB, BRKS, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CHD, CINF, CGNX, CTSH, CLR, CR, XRAY, DDS, BOOM, EMR, WIRE, EZPW, FB, FDX, GD, GS, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HNI, HON, JBHT, ITW, INCY, INOV, ITGR, IPG, IVC, K, KMT, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, LMT, L, MAN, MCHX, MDT, MU, NTAP, NWL, NOC, OLN, ASGN, PATK, PRFT, PCG, PRU, ROG, SMG, SEE, SIGI, SMTC, SWN, STMP, SXI, TECH, TFX, TER, TXN, RIG, TREX, UGI, UPS, VMI, WMT, WERN, IAI, IYK, DDM, IYZ, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWT, EWU, PEJ, PJP, IEV, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,927.54    
 Monthly S1  14,412.19  484.66   
 Daily S2  14,688.22  276.02   
 Low  14,767.01  78.79   
 Daily S1  14,792.53  25.52   
 Open  14,800.59  8.06   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly S2  14,801.56  0.97   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,836.96  35.39   
 Weekly S1  14,849.21  12.25   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,858.57  9.36   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  14,871.33  12.76   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,880.17  8.84   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  14,896.85  16.68   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Monthly Pivot  14,907.82  10.97   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 High  14,950.12  42.30   
 Daily R1  14,975.64  25.52   
 Weekly Pivot  15,032.32  56.68   
 Daily R2  15,054.44  22.11   
 Weekly R1  15,079.97  25.53   
 Weekly R2  15,263.08  183.12   
 Monthly R1  15,392.47  129.39   
 Monthly R2  15,888.10  495.62   

Wednesday 9/22/21. Indicators Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI did a terrific job of signaling a change from a bull market to a bearish one (not a bear market, which sees price drop at least 20% below a high). The market has tumbled after the signal.

Will the drop continue?

I didn't give it much thought when I went shopping for a stock on Monday. I bought near the close and made a killing (on paper) on the rebound. Buy the dip, it's called, and it was an easy time to load up on small positions at a good price.

Getting back to the question, will the downtrend continue? My guess now is yes, it will. Maybe another strong move down will do the trick. We've still a few days before September is over, so there's plenty of time to shake more bulls out of the market. Clearly, the markets struggled to go higher today.

Let's check the next chart to see what is says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 35% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 28%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 464 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

Both lines took a drop from where they were a week ago. No surprise there, considering Monday's plummet. The red line has dropped below the July low, too. Is that significant? I've no idea.

Look at the July drop (red line). Notice it's V shape. The recovery was fast after that one and we could see that kind of a move here. I don't see anything significant or long lasting to keep the market down, so we might make a strong move up. I'm a bit wary about what comes next. Maybe we'll see both. A large drop and a snap-back recovery.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 204 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ADTN, AES, AFL, APD, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEE, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, AAPL, ADM, AWI, AVY, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BLL, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BIIB, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CACI, CPB, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CSOD, GLW, COTY, CR, CCK, CTS, CMI, DECK, XRAY, DUK, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EFX, EQT, EZPW, FFIV, FB, FDS, FICO, FDX, FIS, FCX, GPS, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, EVRG, GFF, HBI, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HURC, IDA, INCY, INFN, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPG, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KMT, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LNC, RAMP, L, MHO, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, MLHR, MLI, MUR, NBR, NTAP, NWL, NOC, NUS, NVDA, OGE, OLN, ASGN, PKG, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PYPL, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PRU, PEG, RMBS, RJF, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROK, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SWN, SCS, SSYS, TPR, TFX, TDC, TER, TKR, UGI, VFC, VLO, WLK, WEX, WMB, ZBRA, IYM, ITB, IEZ, QTEC, FXI, EWO, EWM, THD, QLD, PXJ, QQQ, XHB, XLI, XLK, XLU, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/21/21. Slider Trading Quiz! ConAgra Foods: CAG

The index dropped by -1.8% or -614.41 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 89 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 51 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.6% on 38 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 57.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/410 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/89 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring ConAgra Foods: CAG.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 293 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AEIS, AMD, AES, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, ALB, ALL, DOX, AEE, AFG, AIG, APH, ANIK, AON, APA, APOG, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, AVY, AVNT, AXS, BMI, BLL, BBBY, BERY, BKH, EPAY, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CE, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CSOD, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CMI, DECK, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EMR, EFX, EQT, EL, EXPD, FB, FICO, FDX, FEYE, FMC, FORM, FCX, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, GES, HBI, HIG, HL, HSII, HP, DHI, HURC, IEX, INFN, NSP, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPI, JBLU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, LZB, LAWS, LEG, LEN, RAMP, L, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MTRN, MGEE, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, MS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, CNR, NWL, NKE, NVDA, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PRFT, PLXS, PRU, PEG, QCOM, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGA, ROK, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, NOW, SCCO, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TFX, TDC, TXN, TKR, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VLO, VMI, WMT, WSO, WLK, WEX, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IEZ, DDM, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, QQQ, PHO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, USO, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Daily S2  33,167.71    
 Daily S1  33,569.09  401.38   
 Monthly S2  33,583.10  14.00   Yes! The Monthly S2 is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  33,613.03  29.93   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly S2.
 Monthly S1  33,776.79  163.75   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,936.46  159.68   
 Close  33,970.47  34.00   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly S1  33,990.39  19.93   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Close.
 Weekly S2  34,010.32  19.92   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily Pivot  34,014.41  4.09   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly S2.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,036.38  21.97   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,136.29  99.91   
 Daily R1  34,415.79  279.50   
 Open  34,459.72  43.93   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  34,459.72  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  34,470.45  10.73   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  34,490.38  19.92   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Monthly Pivot  34,703.99  213.61   
 Daily R2  34,861.10  157.11   
 Monthly R1  34,897.67  36.57   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  34,970.44  72.77   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  35,824.88  854.44   

Monday 9/20/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I drew two trendlines, shown here in red. The first is along the bottom. It has 3 touches but only two are widely spaced. Touch spacing is important to the strength (performance) of the trendline (acting as support and resistance).

The top line I drew along the peaks, connecting the early ones but slicing through point A.

The index moved above the top trendline and fell back down below it. It looks as if the Nasdaq will bounce off the bottom line.

Stay tuned to see if it actually happens. That means I'm expecting the Nasdaq to continue moving lower.


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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 261.91 points.
Tuesday: Down 292.06 points.
Wednesday: Up 236.82 points.
Thursday: Down 63.07 points.
Friday: Down 166.44 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 22.84 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 71.52 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 25.59 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     15.8% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.3% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     21.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.5% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     21.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,368  34,476  34,628  34,737  34,888 
Weekly  34,215  34,400  34,695  34,880  35,175 
Monthly  33,788  34,186  34,909  35,307  36,030 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,400  4,417  4,444  4,460  4,488 
Weekly  4,386  4,410  4,451  4,475  4,516 
Monthly  4,271  4,352  4,449  4,530  4,627 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,902  14,973  15,070  15,141  15,238 
Weekly  14,851  14,947  15,081  15,178  15,312 
Monthly  13,977  14,510  14,957  15,491  15,937 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, APD, ALRM, AYX, AEE, AFG, ANTM, AAPL, ARCB, ASH, ADP, BLL, BAX, BECN, BOOT, EPAY, CBT, CACI, CLS, CX, CNP, CIEN, CMCO, ED, CSOD, CRH, CMI, DECK, DVN, D, DTE, EMN, RE, EXPD, FAST, FE, FIVN, FLS, FORM, GIS, GL, GS, GGG, EVRG, HIG, HAYN, HL, HP, HSIC, HD, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, IPI, INTU, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LAMR, MAN, MRTN, MAS, MTRN, MGEE, MLHR, MCO, MLI, NBR, NTGR, NKE, NWPX, NVDA, ASGN, PKG, PANW, PFE, PCG, PGR, PRU, PEG, RL, RMBS, RES, SAIA, SAIC, SEE, NOW, SCCO, SCS, TFX, TDC, TXN, TKR, UNM, IYM, QTEC, IHF, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, MXI, GLD, XAR, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Precision Instrument
2. Shoe2. Medical Supplies
3. Medical Supplies3. Shoe
4. Retail Store4. Retail Store
5. Computers and Peripherals5. E-Commerce
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. IT Services
7. E-Commerce7. Computers and Peripherals
8. IT Services8. Human Resources
9. Human Resources9. Drug
10. Drug10. Insurance (Diversified)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Machinery50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Metals and Mining (Div.)51. Petroleum (Producing)
52. Insurance (Life)52. Building Materials
53. Telecom. Equipment53. Chemical (Specialty)
54. Natural Gas (Distributor)54. Retail (Special Lines)
55. Chemical (Basic)55. Natural Gas (Distributor)
56. Chemical (Specialty)56. Metal Fabricating
57. Metal Fabricating57. Apparel
58. Apparel58. Short ETFs
59. Short ETFs59. Petroleum (Integrated)
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/17/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AES, ALRM, AMZN, AEE, AMN, APH, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, AMAT, ADP, AVY, AXS, BLL, BERY, BIG, BKH, BOOT, CBT, CACI, CX, CNP, CNO, ED, CR, CMI, DECK, DVN, ^DJU, DOV, WIRE, EFX, EZPW, FFIV, FE, GME, GD, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HURC, IPAR, INTU, ISRG, K, KMT, KSS, LHX, LLY, LMT, LOW, M, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MRK, MGEE, MU, MLHR, NBR, CNR, NJR, NXGN, NOC, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PFE, POR, PPG, PRU, RMBS, RHI, RCKY, ROG, RES, SAIC, SMG, NOW, SO, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TER, TXT, TSCO, TG, UNM, VLO, VMI, VRTX, VC, WMT, WAT, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IHE, FXI, IGV, SLV, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWL, TUR, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLB, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 2.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (1) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ALKBroadening top      08/25/202109/15/2021Air Transport
DOXTriangle, symmetrical      07/12/202109/16/2021IT Services
BLDRScallop, ascending and inverted      08/19/202109/15/2021Retail Building Supply
CENXRising wedge      08/12/202109/16/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLFFalling wedge      08/11/202109/16/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
CWBroadening bottom      08/02/202109/10/2021Machinery
DDSRectangle top      08/13/202109/16/2021Retail Store
FORMScallop, ascending and inverted      08/19/202109/15/2021Semiconductor
GERectangle top      07/21/202109/16/2021Diversified Co.
IPGBroadening top      08/25/202109/16/2021Advertising
LXUTriangle, symmetrical      08/05/202109/13/2021Building Materials
MRTNDiamond top      08/23/202109/16/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
RHIRectangle top      08/16/202109/16/2021Human Resources
TGRectangle bottom      07/06/202109/14/2021Chemical (Specialty)
TREXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/02/202109/13/2021Building Materials

 

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Thursday 9/16/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.8% or 123.77 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 411 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 270 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 141 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 65.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 226/394 or 57.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 59/124 or 47.6% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of BTC-USD (bitcoin).

I wrote about a month ago about the coin making a double bottom and predicting a rise. That was correct and it took the coin from about 47,000 to almost 53,000 (up to D).

There's a smaller double bottom at AB. I confirms at C when the coin closed above the peak between the two bottoms. Target: D.

I'm using the measure rule here, which is the height of the double bottom (A to the red line) added to the value of the red line. I'm eyeballing it, but it should top out near the old high (D) if it behaves itself.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 86 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AES, AA, ADS, AEE, ABC, ARCB, ADP, BLL, BIG, BRKS, CBT, CALM, CAL, CLS, CENX, CTXS, CLF, CNA, CMCO, ED, COTY, DVN, D, DUK, WIRE, EOG, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, GPN, EVRG, HIG, DHI, HURC, INFN, IBP, JKHY, KALU, KLIC, LDOS, RAMP, MRO, MTRX, MGEE, NXGN, NUS, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, PINC, RMBS, REV, SIGI, NOW, SKX, LUV, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TXN, TG, WMT, WERN, IYM, IYK, IEZ, IHE, FXI, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWH, EWP, EWL, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,015.76    
 Monthly S1  14,588.65  572.88   
 Daily S2  14,917.16  328.52   
 Weekly S2  14,933.30  16.13   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  14,984.68  51.38   
 Monthly Pivot  14,996.04  11.36   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  15,039.35  43.30   
 Weekly S1  15,047.41  8.07   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,057.15  9.73   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  15,071.34  14.19   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,079.53  8.19   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,101.92  22.38   
 Daily Pivot  15,106.86  4.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,161.53  54.67   
 High  15,174.38  12.85   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly Pivot  15,225.43  51.05   
 Daily R1  15,229.05  3.62   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  15,296.56  67.52   
 Weekly R1  15,339.54  42.98   
 Weekly R2  15,517.56  178.01   
 Monthly R1  15,568.93  51.37   
 Monthly R2  15,976.32  407.40   

Wednesday 9/15/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI (chart pattern indicator not the consumer price index) has signaled a bearish turn as shown by the vertical red line on the far right of the chart.

The bearish signal has been on the chart for over a week now, so it'll remain as a valid signal. By that, I mean signals can appear or disappear for up to a week but are usually stable after 3 trading days. So this one is here to stay.

The call was a timely one. It predicted this downturn. If you look at the thin blue CPI line at the bottom of the chart, it's near 0. That suggests the downtrend has more to go, but don't rely on it too much. A swift move up (in the markets) can force the line to bounce off the top of the scale, changing a bearish signal to bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 28% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 22%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 464 stocks in my database are down an average of 15% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 13%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

The two indicator lines, red and blue, have been bearish since June. Maybe we're seeing the markets begin to pay attention that it's September, historically the weakest month of the year.

Both lines are lower this week compared to a week ago.

The prior chart is bearish and so is this one. It suggests more weakness in the markets will follow. So I'd get ready to buy with the cash you have. A strong market drop and I'd be nibbling. October might see a downward move, too, but November will probably see the markets firming up. Of course, this will be moot if the market suddenly surges in the coming days. They've shown resilience against what was supposed to be a weak period. Look at slide 7 here. It shows the indices bottoming sometime next week.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AES, AFL, ALKS, ADS, ALL, AYX, AEE, AEL, AXP, AIG, ABC, APH, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, AVNT, AXS, BLL, BECN, BBY, BIG, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BG, CBT, COG, CACI, CAL, CLS, CX, CENX, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CNO, CL, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CONN, CW, DVN, DFS, D, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EQT, EXC, XOM, FDX, FOE, FIS, FRD, GPS, GE, GILD, GL, GS, EVRG, GFF, HSC, HIG, HELE, HP, HNI, HOLX, HD, HURC, INFN, NSP, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPI, KSS, KLIC, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, L, LOW, LXU, MTRX, MGEE, MLHR, MOS, MLI, MUR, NTGR, NWL, NKE, NUS, ORI, ASGN, OXM, PATK, PICO, PNW, PINC, PFG, PRU, RL, REV, RNG, RLI, SAIA, SAIC, SIGI, SRE, NOW, STMP, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TKR, RIG, TRV, TG, SLCA, VFC, VRTX, WMT, WU, WEX, ITA, IYM, IYK, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWP, IBB, PPA, PXJ, MXI, XLF, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/14/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 0.8% or 261.91 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 594 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 329 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 265 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/409 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/89 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Columbus McKinnon: CMCO

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 130 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, AFL, ATSG, AYX, AXP, AMGN, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ADM, ARW, AGO, ADP, AVNT, AVA, BLL, BECN, BIO, CBT, CPB, CX, CNP, CHKP, CVX, CNA, CMCO, ED, CROX, DUK, EIX, WIRE, EOG, XOM, FICO, FAST, GPN, GS, EVRG, GES, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HOLX, IDXX, TILE, IPG, IVC, JNJ, KMT, LANC, MRO, MTRN, MGEE, MLI, MUR, NXGN, NVDA, OLN, OMC, ASGN, PATK, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PICO, PNW, PINC, PFG, PG, PEG, KWR, REV, RES, SEE, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SWN, STMP, SCS, TECH, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TSCO, SLCA, WMT, WU, WEX, IYM, IYE, IHE, IDU, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWU, IBB, PBE, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  34,001.90    
 Weekly S2  34,173.86  171.96   
 Monthly S1  34,435.76  261.90   
 Weekly S1  34,521.75  85.98   
 Daily S2  34,551.14  29.40   
 Low  34,665.50  114.36   
 Open  34,665.50  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  34,710.39  44.89   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,770.02  59.63   
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,802.30  32.29   
 Daily Pivot  34,824.74  22.44   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,834.59  9.84   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,869.63  35.04   
 High  34,939.10  69.47   
 Weekly Pivot  34,947.49  8.39   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  34,983.99  36.50   
 Monthly Pivot  35,033.48  49.49   
 Daily R2  35,098.34  64.87   
 Weekly R1  35,295.38  197.03   
 Monthly R1  35,467.34  171.97   
 Weekly R2  35,721.13  253.78   
 Monthly R2  36,065.06  343.93   

Monday 9/13/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I find trendlines valuable. They highlight support, resistance, momentum, as well as the price trend. Those features are valuable. So I drew two red trendlines on the chart to see what they say.

The bottom trendline is more important than the top one. Why? Because it touches or comes close to price four times. It's longer than the top one and the touches are spaced farther apart. All of that is important to a trendline.

The bottom trendline has price dropping toward it. The line might act as support and turn the index upward. If you look at the other three touches, notice that they are brief, a day or two. Using that as experience suggests but doesn't guarantee that this touch will also be brief.

Of course anything can happen. The index might crash through the trendline. It could ride along it for weeks. Or it could bounce of it. We won't know for sure until it happens. My guess is it'll touch the line and rebound.

How far will price rise? The top trendline as I explained isn't that reliable. It's based on just two touches when three is a minimum. But the slope mirrors the slope of the bottom trendline. That's valuable. It creates a channel where price might float in the coming weeks. The line can serve as a ceiling, assuming the index recovers.

It's September, historically the weakest month of the year. Let's watch how it plays out.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 269.09 points.
Wednesday: Down 68.93 points.
Thursday: Down 151.69 points.
Friday: Down 271.66 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 761.37 points or 2.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 248.03 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 76.85 points or 1.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     2.9% down from the high of 35,631.19 on 08/16/2021.
     15.9% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     1.9% down from the high of 15,403.44 on 09/07/2021.
     21.9% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     1.9% down from the high of 4,545.85 on 09/02/2021.
     21.7% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,266  34,437  34,771  34,941  35,275 
Weekly  34,087  34,347  34,860  35,121  35,634 
Monthly  33,915  34,261  34,946  35,293  35,978 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,416  4,437  4,479  4,500  4,542 
Weekly  4,406  4,432  4,484  4,510  4,562 
Monthly  4,279  4,369  4,457  4,547  4,636 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,954  15,035  15,192  15,273  15,430 
Weekly  14,918  15,017  15,210  15,309  15,502 
Monthly  14,000  14,558  14,981  15,538  15,961 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 199 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AYI, ADTN, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AA, AYX, AMZN, AXP, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, BLL, BSET, BECN, BMRN, BKH, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BLDR, CBT, COG, CACI, CPB, CE, CNP, CHS, CHD, CIEN, CSCO, CLX, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, ED, GLW, CREE, CCK, CW, XRAY, D, WIRE, EFX, EL, RE, EXC, FDX, FEYE, FIVN, FRD, GPS, GE, GNW, GILD, GPN, GL, GPRO, EVRG, GES, HIG, HSII, HELE, HNI, HOV, IDA, IBP, IBKR, ISRG, JCOM, JKHY, JNJ, KBH, KBAL, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LDOS, LNC, M, MAN, MCHX, MA, MDT, MGEE, MLI, NCR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NXGN, JWN, NWPX, NUS, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PATK, PRFT, PICO, POR, PGR, PRU, PEG, KWR, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, RHI, SCHW, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, SCS, SUM, TDC, TXT, TKR, UNM, VFC, VC, WEX, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWT, TUR, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, XAR, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Precision Instrument1. Shoe
2. Medical Supplies2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Shoe3. Homebuilding
4. Retail Store4. Retail Store
5. E-Commerce5. Precision Instrument
6. IT Services6. Human Resources
7. Computers and Peripherals7. Medical Supplies
8. Human Resources8. E-Commerce
9. Drug9. Information Services
10. Insurance (Diversified)10. IT Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Petroleum (Producing)51. Food Processing
52. Building Materials52. Investment Co. (Foreign)
53. Chemical (Specialty)53. Household Products
54. Retail (Special Lines)54. Healthcare Information
55. Natural Gas (Distributor)55. Metal Fabricating
56. Metal Fabricating56. Natural Gas (Distributor)
57. Apparel57. Petroleum (Integrated)
58. Short ETFs58. Chemical (Specialty)
59. Petroleum (Integrated)59. Short ETFs
60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment60. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 9/10/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AES, ALKS, AMZN, APA, ARW, ATO, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BAX, BECN, BMRN, BKH, EPAY, BRKS, COG, CACI, CPB, CX, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CNO, CONN, GLW, CCRN, CTS, CMI, EMN, FICO, FAST, GES, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HOLX, DHI, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPG, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, JNJ, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LH, MANH, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MLHR, NFLX, NJR, NXGN, NWPX, NUS, OLN, ASGN, PCG, PICO, PPG, PGR, PHM, RMBS, RLI, ROK, ROG, SEE, SO, SWX, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TPX, TXN, TMO, TOL, UGI, UNM, VLO, VEEV, VRTX, WMT, WERN, WEX, IYK, ITB, IYH, IAT, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, EWU, DBA, IEV, XLY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 4.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 13 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ARWPipe top      08/23/202108/30/2021Electronics
AVNTPipe top      08/23/202108/30/2021Chemical (Specialty)
BCPCDiamond top      08/31/202109/09/2021Chemical (Specialty)
BBBYBroadening top, right-angled and descending      07/29/202109/08/2021Retail (Special Lines)
CFBroadening bottom      08/26/202109/09/2021Chemical (Basic)
CMITriangle, symmetrical      08/09/202109/09/2021Machinery
DDSRectangle top      08/13/202109/09/2021Retail Store
DDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/20/202109/03/2021Electric Utility (East)
GERectangle top      07/21/202109/09/2021Diversified Co.
GISDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/27/202109/07/2021Food Processing
GILDScallop, ascending and inverted      08/10/202109/07/2021Biotechnology
HQYBroadening bottom      08/24/202109/09/2021Healthcare Information
IVCDead-cat bounce      09/09/202109/09/2021Medical Supplies
KFRCHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/19/202109/08/2021Human Resources
MSFTBroadening wedge, ascending      07/07/202109/09/2021Computer Software and Svcs
NWPXTriangle, symmetrical      08/20/202109/09/2021Building Materials
PICOHorn top      08/16/202108/30/2021Diversified Co.
RGARectangle bottom      08/16/202109/09/2021Insurance (Life)
RHIRectangle top      08/16/202109/09/2021Human Resources
SAIADiamond top      08/12/202109/07/2021Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SHWTriple top      08/16/202109/03/2021Chemical (Basic)
SCSBroadening bottom      08/02/202109/09/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
TECHScallop, ascending      08/05/202109/03/2021Biotechnology
TXNRectangle top      05/25/202109/09/2021Semiconductor

 

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Thursday 9/9/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.6% or -87.69 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 325 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 146 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 179 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 226/394 or 57.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/123 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is a target rich environment. Let's start from the left and go right.

At EF, we see a confirmed Adam & Eve double bottom. The Adam bottom is narrow and often spike-shaped while Eve is wide and more rounded looking. The chart pattern confirms when the index closes above the peak between the two bottoms.

Next is 123. That's a triple top and it's bearish. It also confirms at C but the index doesn't drop much. To me, that's a sign of strength, but in this case, the Adam & Adam double bottom at CD didn't power the index much higher. Yes, the climb after CD exceeded the measure rule (the height of the pattern added to the breakout price, which serves as a target) but the index still bumped up against resistance near the 123 tops.

Today, we see an Adam & Adam double bottom, confirmed, and price made a decent but not exceptional recovery after the opening plunge. Notice that price peaked at 15,300 after AB, which is what CD and the valley between 1 and 2 reside. That's overhead resistance.

The index may struggle to burn through that resistance. Indeed, the index may drop. The above predictions agree with my assessment.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACIW, ADTN, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ANIK, APA, ARCB, ADM, ARW, ASH, AGO, AVNT, AXS, BLL, BECN, BBBY, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BA, BBW, CBT, COG, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CF, CVX, CTXS, CLNE, CNO, CONN, COP, GLW, COST, COTY, CRH, CTS, DVN, DFS, D, DRQ, DUK, EMN, EIX, EOG, EXPD, EZPW, FLS, FWRD, GIS, GPRO, GES, THG, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, IDA, INFN, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JBLU, K, KFRC, KBAL, KMB, LDOS, RAMP, MRO, MAS, MLHR, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NFG, NOV, NTGR, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, OLN, ASGN, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PICO, PG, PGR, PEG, PHM, REV, RNG, ROG, ROST, RES, SLB, SEE, SHW, SO, LUV, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TER, RIG, TZOO, TG, UPS, VLO, WRB, WAT, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, ITB, IEO, IEZ, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, DBA, PXJ, ILF, MXI, XLY, GLD, XHB, XLB, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,073.05    
 Monthly S1  14,679.84  606.80   
 Monthly Pivot  15,029.96  350.11   
 Weekly S2  15,062.33  32.37   
 Daily S2  15,130.79  68.47   
 Weekly S1  15,174.48  43.69   
 Low  15,206.61  32.13   
 Daily S1  15,208.72  2.11   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,265.34  56.62   
 Weekly Pivot  15,277.28  11.94   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,283.48  6.20   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  15,284.53  1.05   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  15,286.64  2.11   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,301.62  14.98   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  15,360.35  58.73   
 High  15,360.35  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  15,362.46  2.11   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  15,389.43  26.98   
 Daily R2  15,438.27  48.84   
 Weekly R2  15,492.23  53.95   
 Monthly R1  15,636.75  144.53   
 Monthly R2  15,986.87  350.11   

Wednesday 9/8/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has signaled a bearish turn for the markets, but don't let it fool you. It could be a fake signal because the indicator can change for up to a week. However, it's usually stable after three days.

The drop from near or at 100 to below 36 suggests a radical change in the markets, as if it was waiting to tumble. So maybe this is real, but only time will tell if that's true.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 22% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 21%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 58% on 09/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 464 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 09/23/2020.

This week, compared to a week ago, the red and blue lines dipped one percentage point each. That's not a big move compared to what we've seen in the past. Even so, any downward move is bearish.

In fact, if you look at the red line, you'll see that the late August peak is below the peak in early August, suggesting weakness, too. So maybe today's decline is more serious than just a one day's weakness.

Of course, we'll find out in the coming days but it'll pay to be careful here. Remember September is, historically the weakest month of the year.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 127 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADBE, ADTN, ALRM, AA, AEE, ABC, ANIK, ACGL, AWI, ATO, BLL, BBBY, BIIB, EPAY, BRC, BRKS, BBW, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CLS, CF, CHKP, CHD, CNA, ED, CR, CROX, CSGS, CW, XRAY, D, DUK, EMN, EPAM, EFX, RE, FFIV, FEYE, FLS, FDP, GIS, GILD, GL, GPRO, HIG, HE, HP, HSY, HON, ITW, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, KELYA, KLIC, LANC, LEN, RAMP, LMT, MHO, MANH, MAS, MGEE, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NEU, NKE, OGE, OMC, ASGN, PAYX, PPG, PG, PGR, PEG, RGA, REV, ROST, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SO, SR, SCS, TPX, TER, RIG, TZOO, UGI, UPS, VC, WU, WWW, ZBRA, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWS, QLD, PPA, QQQ, PHO, IEV, IXN, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 9/7/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.2% or -74.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1224 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 617 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 607 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 229/408 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/89 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Coherent (COHR).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AKAM, AA, DOX, ANIK, AMAT, ACGL, ASH, AGO, BLL, BSET, BBBY, BKNG, BRC, BRKS, BBW, COG, CACI, CX, CHS, CLF, CMCO, ED, CONN, CSGS, D, BOOM, EMN, EPAM, EQT, FISV, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, GNW, GL, HIG, HTLD, HL, HP, HON, IDA, IIIN, IBKR, IVC, JKHY, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LEN, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MTRN, MGEE, ^IXIC, NEU, JWN, NVDA, OXY, OGE, OMC, ASGN, PKE, PYPL, PFE, PCG, PICO, PFG, PG, PRU, KWR, RGA, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SRE, SO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SCS, TGT, TER, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, UGI, VC, WERN, WU, WDAY, XLNX, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWT, IXN, GLD, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  34,289.24    
 Monthly S1  34,829.16  539.93   
 Weekly S2  35,141.76  312.59   
 Daily S2  35,200.42  58.66   
 Monthly Pivot  35,230.18  29.75   
 Weekly S1  35,255.42  25.25   
 Low  35,269.40  13.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  35,284.76  15.36   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  35,327.96  43.21   
 50% Down from Intraday High  35,346.05  18.09   
 Daily Pivot  35,353.73  7.68   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  35,364.14  10.41   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  35,369.09  4.95   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  35,383.07  13.98   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 Open  35,401.73  18.66   
 High  35,422.71  20.98   
 Daily R1  35,438.07  15.36   
 Weekly R1  35,496.73  58.67   
 Daily R2  35,507.04  10.31   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  35,624.38  117.33   
 Monthly R1  35,770.10  145.73   
 Monthly R2  36,171.12  401.02   

Monday, Labor Day, 9/6/21. Site Support

Picture of my dog

Monday is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

  1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

    So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

  2. You can click on an ad. Please don't click on them just to run up the score. Google frowns on that. If you see something of interest, then click the ad and visit their site. Ad sales are where most of the financial support for the site comes from. Some of you may have to turn off your ad blocker to see the ads.
  3.  
  4. Finally, you can donate to the site directly. The home page (and some other pages as well) has a Donate link at the bottom of the page. For a limited time and while supplies last, I'll throw in a free book to those with addresses in the US who donate $100 or more. See the donate page for details.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

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Friday 9/3/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AA, ADS, AEO, ABC, ANIK, ACGL, ASH, AGO, AVA, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BMRN, EPAY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, COG, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CF, CVX, CHS, CLF, CMCO, CONN, COP, COST, CROX, CW, DHR, DECK, ^DJT, DOV, DTE, BOOM, EFX, EQT, XOM, FAST, FIS, FE, FISV, FMC, FCX, FRD, GNW, GL, GOOGL, GPRO, HIG, HL, HP, HOV, ILMN, IBKR, ISRG, IVC, JKHY, JNJ, KMB, LHX, LZB, LH, LEN, RAMP, L, MTSI, MA, MTRX, MU, NBR, JWN, NWPX, NUS, OXY, ASGN, PFE, PG, PEG, KWR, DGX, RCKY, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, SWN, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TDC, TER, TXT, TOL, TREX, VFC, V, WAT, WERN, WSM, IHI, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IEV, ILF, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLI, XRT, UNG, VHT, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 21 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 3.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 7 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ADTNDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/09/202108/27/2021Telecom. Equipment
AESTriangle, symmetrical      08/04/202108/31/2021Electric Utility (East)
AAPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Aerospace/Defense
ANTMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      08/13/202109/01/2021Medical Services
ACGLScallop, ascending and inverted      07/19/202109/02/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ADPFalling wedge      08/16/202109/02/2021IT Services
BRKSPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
COGPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
CHSHorn top      08/09/202108/23/2021Apparel
CIENTriangle, symmetrical      05/28/202109/01/2021Telecom. Equipment
CMTLTriangle, symmetrical      06/10/202109/02/2021Telecom. Equipment
CONNPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Retail (Special Lines)
DVNBroadening bottom      07/29/202108/30/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
DFSDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/13/202108/30/2021Financial Services
FMCPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Chemical (Basic)
GPSFalling wedge      08/04/202109/02/2021Apparel
THGDiamond top      08/12/202109/02/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HNITriangle, symmetrical      07/29/202109/02/2021Furn/Home Furnishings
IEXTriangle, symmetrical      07/21/202109/02/2021Machinery
JKHYDiamond top      08/09/202108/27/2021IT Services
LRCXScallop, descending      08/04/202108/30/2021Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LENDiamond top      07/30/202108/31/2021Homebuilding
MPennant      08/25/202109/01/2021Retail Store
MCHXScallop, ascending      08/12/202108/31/2021Advertising
ASGNCup with handle      04/29/202108/27/2021Human Resources
PFEPipe top      08/16/202108/23/2021Drug
KWRPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Chemical (Specialty)
SWNPipe bottom      08/16/202108/23/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)

 

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Thursday 9/2/21. Cryptocurrency DOGE-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.3% or 50.14 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 664 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 363 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 301 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 54.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/393 or 57.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/123 or 47.2% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

Picture of the doge=-usd.

I thought I'd oscillate discussing the Nasdaq with cryptocurrencies each Thursday.

I show a chart of DOGE on the daily scale. The price scale of this chart ranges from a dime to 45 cents. Tiny, in other words. I had to play with the settings of both time and price to get what I wanted. It's on a linear scale because the log scale on my chart doesn't like price below a buck.

AB is a Adam & Eve double bottom. It confirms when the coin closes above blue line C. In this case, the move after that doesn't meet the measure rule.

By that, I mean the height AC added to C should give a target and it does, but the coin doesn't reach it.

Line BE outlines a bump-and-run reversal top. The lead-in phase is tight with price climbing near a constant pace. After that, we see the bump take price up to D. And then down she goes, toward E.

The coin could touch the trendline and bounce upward in a dual bump or it could plunge right through. It might bounce off the line and rise. I don't know which of these three scenarios is more likely, but it merits watching. If the BARR top works like it's supposed to, you'll see the coin drop below the trendline, perhaps making a large drop. First, though, the coin has to return to the red trendline.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ANF, AFL, ALRM, ALB, AA, ADS, AMZN, AEL, AMGN, APH, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, AXS, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BIIB, BRKS, BBW, COG, CPB, CLS, CX, CNC, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CAG, COST, CRH, CW, DECK, DFS, BOOM, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EQT, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FE, FMC, FTNT, FCX, GPS, GNW, GL, HIG, HL, HP, HON, IIIN, IVC, LH, LANC, LDOS, RAMP, L, MHO, MCO, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, JWN, NOC, OXY, ASGN, PAYX, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PFG, PRU, PEG, KWR, RCKY, ROST, SEE, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SWN, TER, TXN, TMO, TJX, UNM, VLO, VRTX, WAT, WSM, ZBRA, IYM, IYC, IHI, DDM, FDN, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWT, QLD, DBA, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, XLY, XLB, XAR, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  14,237.69    
 Weekly S2  14,709.45  471.76   
 Monthly S1  14,773.53  64.09   
 Monthly Pivot  14,959.01  185.47   
 Weekly S1  15,009.41  50.41   
 Weekly Pivot  15,076.95  67.53   
 Daily S2  15,253.61  176.66   
 Daily S1  15,281.49  27.89   
 Low  15,302.11  20.62   
 Open  15,308.98  6.87   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Close  15,309.38  0.40   Yes! The Close is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  15,330.00  20.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,331.29  1.29   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,340.30  9.01   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,349.32  9.01   
 Daily R1  15,357.88  8.56   
 Weekly R1  15,376.91  19.03   
 High  15,378.50  1.59   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  15,406.39  27.89   
 Weekly R2  15,444.45  38.06   
 Monthly R1  15,494.85  50.41   
 Monthly R2  15,680.33  185.47   

Wednesday 9/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for September, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for one-year performance as of 31 August 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Financials (+52%)
2. Communication services (+36%)
5. Materials (+34%)
6. Energy (+34%)
4. Industrials (+33%)
8. Real estate (+31%)
3. Information technology (+29%)
9. Health care (+25%)
7. Consumer discretionary (+17%)
11. Utilities (+16%)
10. Consumer staples (+11%)

The list shuffled from a month ago. Utilities lifted off the bottom. Information technology was in third place but it slipped to seventh.

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order. It's puzzling that the experts think IT will outperform and yet it dropped substantially in one month.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
5. Financials
4. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Real estate
10. Materials
11. Utilities
9. Energy

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 8/31. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago but that was based on year-to-date performance. This list is for one year performance.

1. Real estate management and development (101%)
2. Consumer finance (+91%)
4. Construction and engineering (+75%)
9. Construction materials (66%)
10. Banks (+60%)
5. Building products (59%)
(new). Electronic equipment instruments and components (58%)
3. Auto components (+55%)
6. Personal products (54%)
(new). Capital markets (53%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AA, AEE, AEO, ABC, AMN, APH, AON, APA, ATR, ASH, AIZ, BSET, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BOOT, BRKS, COG, CX, CHKP, CHS, CHD, CLR, CROX, CTS, DOV, BOOM, EIX, WIRE, EPAM, EQT, EL, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FOE, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FCX, IT, GNW, EVRG, HBI, HE, HL, HP, HSY, JBHT, INOV, IBP, ITGR, IVC, LEG, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, M, MAN, MCHX, MRK, MLHR, MUR, NEE, NI, JWN, OXY, OMC, ASGN, PAYX, PETS, PFE, PPL, PG, KWR, RMBS, RNG, RCKY, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SWN, SUM, TECH, TER, TXN, VLO, VMI, V, WMT, WMB, WSM, IHE, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWJ, EZA, EWY, EWL, EWT, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, XLF, GLD. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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