Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/29/2023
  Indus: 35,430 +13.44 +0.0%  
  Trans: 14,817 +0.30 +0.0%  
  Utils: 862 -5.36 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 14,258 -23.27 -0.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,551 -4.31 -0.1%  
YTD
 +6.9%  
 +10.6%  
-10.8%  
 +36.2%  
 +18.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023  
  Down arrow34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023
  Up arrow900 or 825 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023
As of 11/29/2023
  Indus: 35,430 +13.44 +0.0%  
  Trans: 14,817 +0.30 +0.0%  
  Utils: 862 -5.36 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 14,258 -23.27 -0.2%  
  S&P 500: 4,551 -4.31 -0.1%  
YTD
 +6.9%  
 +10.6%  
-10.8%  
 +36.2%  
 +18.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/29/2023  
  Down arrow34,500 or 36,400 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow14,500 or 15,800 by 12/15/2023
  Up arrow900 or 825 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow13,700 or 14,450 by 12/15/2023
  Down arrow4,450 or 4,650 by 12/15/2023

October 2023 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 10/31/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.6% or 511.37 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 167 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 85 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 82 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 274/498 or 55.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/109 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Bump-and-run reversal bottom.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, ALRM, ALGT, ALL, DOX, AXP, AMN, AMAT, AIZ, AGO, AVNT, BIO, BAH, BMY, CDNS, CDAY, CHKP, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CNO, DSGR, ^DJI, EFX, EQT, EL, EVH, FAST, FCX, FDP, GPS, GPN, GES, HP, HNI, HOLX, JBHT, IIIN, IBKR, TILE, IRM, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, LZB, LH, LANC, LLY, MCHX, MTRX, MRCY, MLKN, MOS, MLI, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NKE, JWN, NTNX, ON, OR, PANW, PTEN, POR, ^GSPC, SBH, SAIC, SCI, SKYW, SXI, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TDOC, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TRV, TREX, SLCA, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WWD, IYK, IYE, IHE, DDM, BOTZ, IHF, IYZ, IEV, MXI, EWA, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLP, XLE, VHT, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,314.17    
 Weekly S2  31,897.79  583.63   
 Monthly S1  32,121.56  223.77   
 Daily S2  32,357.73  236.16   
 Weekly S1  32,413.38  55.65   
 Low  32,537.54  124.16   
 Open  32,537.54  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  32,643.34  105.80   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,715.33  71.99   
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,770.25  54.92   
 Daily Pivot  32,823.16  52.90   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,825.18  2.02   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  32,842.79  17.61   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,928.96  86.18   
 High  33,002.97  74.01   
 Daily R1  33,108.77  105.80   
 Monthly Pivot  33,134.60  25.82   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  33,288.59  153.99   
 Weekly R1  33,358.37  69.78   
 Weekly R2  33,787.77  429.41   
 Monthly R1  33,941.99  154.22   
 Monthly R2  34,955.03  1,013.04   

Monday 10/30/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index is making a straight line run down to 0. My guess, is that it'll stop before it crashes.

September was not an easy month and October is ending hard, too. Will the trend change?

Yes!

When? I'm thinking this coming week. Why? Because of that congestion (support) we see on the far left of the chart in May (circled in green). That should support the index. However, we're at the bottom of the circle now. Hmmm.

I show a head-and-shoulders top. at the labels. It's not pretty, is it? The left shoulder should be near in price to the right one, but it's not. At A, we see the index pull back to the neckline (the sloping red line) and coast above it.

All in all, I expect to see the index turn higher this week.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 190.87 points.
Tuesday: Up 204.97 points.
Wednesday: Down 105.45 points.
Thursday: Down 251.63 points.
Friday: Down 366.71 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 709.69 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 340.8 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 106.79 points or 2.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     9.1% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     3.1% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     12.5% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     23.2% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     10.6% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     8.5% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,050  32,234  32,511  32,694  32,971 
Weekly  31,727  32,072  32,672  33,017  33,617 
Monthly  31,144  31,781  32,964  33,601  34,785 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,073  4,095  4,126  4,148  4,179 
Weekly  4,005  4,061  4,160  4,217  4,316 
Monthly  3,915  4,016  4,205  4,306  4,495 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,500  12,572  12,672  12,743  12,844 
Weekly  12,159  12,401  12,786  13,028  13,412 
Monthly  11,797  12,220  12,967  13,390  14,137 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 191 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ABM, AMD, AFL, A, ALRM, ALK, ALGT, AMED, AEL, ATR, ACGL, ASH, AVA, BCPC, BBY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BAH, BRC, BFH, BMY, BR, BRKR, CBT, CDNS, CLS, CNP, CDAY, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CHS, CLNE, GLW, COTY, CCK, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DRQ, EXP, EIX, EOG, EFX, EQT, EL, EVH, XOM, FAST, FLS, FCX, GPS, GS, GOOGL, HL, HP, HNI, HOLX, HOV, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, INFN, PODD, TILE, NVTA, IRM, JBLU, JNJ, KLAC, KSS, LZB, LAMR, LANC, LEG, LLY, RAMP, MA, MRCY, MLKN, MOS, NBR, NFLX, NJR, NEWR, NKE, JWN, NWPX, NTNX, OXY, OMC, OUT, PANW, PAYX, PETS, PFE, PCG, PNW, PXD, POR, PPG, PRU, QTWO, ROK, ROP, SBH, SLB, SAIC, SKYW, SXI, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TDOC, TTD, TKR, TOL, UHAL, SLCA, UIS, UNM, VFC, VMI, VRSN, V, WERN, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WWD, ITA, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, THD, PPA, DBA, PJP, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLV, XRT, XAR, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. E-Commerce
2. Semiconductor2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment5. Cement and Aggregates
6. E-Commerce6. Semiconductor
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
8. Insurance (Life)8. IT Services
9. Internet9. Retail (Special Lines)
10. Short ETFs10. Insurance (Life)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Securities Brokerage50. Securities Brokerage
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Chemical (Diversified)
52. Precision Instrument52. Precision Instrument
53. Household Products53. Telecom. Equipment
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Advertising
55. Advertising55. Electric Utility (Central)
56. Metal Fabricating56. Electric Utility (East)
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Food Processing58. Food Processing
59. Medical Supplies59. Medical Supplies
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/27/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released an article that tests the Weinstein setup.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 189 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, ALGT, AYX, AEL, AFG, APA, AAPL, ATR, ACGL, ANET, ARW, ASH, ATO, AVA, AZTA, BECN, BBY, BOOT, BAH, BFH, BMY, BR, BLDR, CACI, CDNS, CPB, CE, CLS, CDAY, CF, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, COTY, CRH, XRAY, DRQ, EXP, EOG, EPAM, EQT, EVH, EXPD, FAST, FIS, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FNV, GNW, GPN, GL, GOOGL, THG, HE, HQY, HTLD, HP, HNI, HOLX, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, IBP, PODD, ITGR, TILE, ISRG, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KLAC, LANC, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, LOW, LPLA, LXU, MA, MRCY, META, MU, MLKN, NBR, NOV, NFLX, NTGR, NEWR, NI, NOC, NTNX, OGE, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PCTY, PCG, PFG, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RJF, ROL, SBH, SAIC, NOW, SHOP, STR, SWN, SPSC, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TRGP, TDOC, TTD, TOL, TSCO, TG, TREX, TWLO, SLCA, VMI, VMC, WU, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WWD, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, ICF, IHF, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IHI, EWK, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, PEJ, PXJ, ROBO, XLP, XLU, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABMPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Industrial Services
ADTNHead-and-shoulders top      08/14/202310/02/2023Telecom. Equipment
AKAMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/20/202310/11/2023E-Commerce
AYXRounding top      09/05/202310/26/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ANETDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/01/202310/10/2023E-Commerce
ATOPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
BAHPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023IT Services
BRHead-and-shoulders top      08/14/202310/10/2023Information Services
CDNSPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Computer Software and Svcs
CALTriple top      09/01/202310/17/2023Shoe
CPBDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/06/202310/12/2023Food Processing
CDAYPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Information Services
CHDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/09/202310/12/2023Household Products
CCRNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/01/202309/28/2023Human Resources
DUKHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/05/202310/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
EVHDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/10/202310/16/2023Healthcare Information
EXPDBroadening bottom      08/14/202310/24/2023Air Transport
FEHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/06/202310/23/2023Electric Utility (East)
FMCDead-cat bounce      10/23/202310/23/2023Chemical (Basic)
FORMTriple top      09/29/202310/19/2023Semiconductor
FTNTFalling wedge      09/26/202310/26/2023Computer Software and Svcs
HEHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/25/202310/23/2023Electric Utility (West)
HNIPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
HUBGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/14/202310/17/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HURCPipe top      08/28/202309/05/2023Machinery
INTCHead-and-shoulders top      07/31/202310/12/2023Semiconductor
INTUDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/08/202310/12/2023Computer Software and Svcs
KLACPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MTSITriple top      08/31/202310/10/2023Semiconductor
MDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/21/202310/13/2023Retail Store
MCHXBig W      09/25/202310/09/2023Advertising
MAHead-and-shoulders top      07/27/202310/12/2023Financial Services
MRCYPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Computers and Peripherals
MLKNPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
NFLXPipe bottom      10/09/202310/16/2023Internet
NTAPHead-and-shoulders top      09/29/202310/17/2023Computers and Peripherals
NWLDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/12/202310/23/2023Household Products
NEEPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Electric Utility (East)
NTNXPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023E-Commerce
NVDAHead-and-shoulders top      07/14/202310/12/2023Semiconductor
PKGTriple top      09/29/202310/18/2023Packaging and Container
PRUHead-and-shoulders top      08/07/202310/17/2023Insurance (Life)
REGNDouble Top, Eve and Adam      08/23/202310/13/2023Biotechnology
RDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/29/202310/17/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
SBHUgly double bottom      10/13/202310/23/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
SAICPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023IT Services
SKXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/29/202310/17/2023Shoe
SCSPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
SNPSPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TXTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/20/202310/17/2023Diversified Co.
TTDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/12/202310/11/2023Advertising
WATHorn top      08/28/202309/11/2023Precision Instrument
WUDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/28/202310/24/2023Financial Services
WEXHead-and-shoulders top      08/10/202310/17/2023Information Services
WSMPipe top      10/09/202310/16/2023Retail (Special Lines)
WWDTriple top      08/01/202310/17/2023Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 10/26/23. Bitcoin>: Duck! Overhead Resistance

The Nasdaq dropped by -2.4% or -318.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 36 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.8% on 23 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 13 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 63.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 264/470 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of bitcoin on the weekly scale.

BC is a weird looking double bottom. I write 'weird' because the left side fails to extend above the top of the double bottom so that it looks like a bottom. The pattern becomes valid when the currency closes above top D. That happens at A.

A is a tasty rise, however, there's overhead resistance setup by prior peaks/valleys. Even though enthusiasm is high given the rise at A, look for the currency to stall.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 178 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ABM, AFL, A, ATSG, ALKS, ALGT, AYX, AMAT, ADM, ANET, ATO, ADP, AVY, BAX, BECN, BIG, BIO, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BFH, BR, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CX, CDAY, CLNE, CLF, CNO, CNX, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, CSGP, CRH, XRAY, ^DJI, EXP, ELV, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, EVH, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FIS, FORM, FTV, GPS, GD, GE, GNW, GPN, GFS, GOOGL, HTLD, HELE, HP, HNI, HOLX, HUN, IEX, ILMN, IBP, PODD, TILE, ISRG, NVTA, IRM, JBLU, KALU, KEYS, KLAC, KLIC, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LLY, LNC, MAS, MRCY, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MOS, MYGN, NBR, NFLX, NJR, NI, NOC, NTNX, OMCL, ASGN, ON, PANW, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PCTY, PYPL, PFE, PPG, KWR, DGX, RJF, ROK, R, SBH, SLB, SAIC, SHOP, SCCO, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TDY, TER, TXN, TTD, TMO, TWLO, SLCA, VEEV, WEX, WSM, WOLF, WWW, WWD, IYE, ITB, IEZ, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, IHF, IXN, SLV, EWK, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWT, DBA, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, XHB, XLK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,390.43    
 Weekly S2  12,508.81  118.38   
 Monthly S1  12,605.83  97.01   
 Daily S2  12,651.13  45.30   
 Weekly S1  12,665.02  13.89   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  12,736.17  71.16   
 Low  12,804.30  68.13   
 Close  12,821.22  16.92   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  12,889.35  68.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,895.30  5.95   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,923.41  28.11   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,951.52  28.11   
 Daily R1  12,974.39  22.87   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  13,039.86  65.47   
 High  13,042.52  2.66   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  13,127.57  85.05   
 Weekly Pivot  13,133.63  6.07   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  13,178.55  44.92   
 Weekly R1  13,289.84  111.28   
 Monthly R1  13,393.95  104.11   
 Weekly R2  13,758.45  364.51   
 Monthly R2  13,966.67  208.22   

Wednesday 10/25/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is still bearish despite Tuesday's lift.

Look at the CPI line. It's the thin blue one near the bottom right of the chart. It has bounced off zero and is heading higher. That suggests we'll see a change to neutral and maybe green if earnings reports continue to be favorable.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 50% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 43%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 63% on 10/26/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 29% on 11/03/2022.

Both lines are worse off today than they were a week ago. And the difference is by quite a bit, too.

Notice that the most recent low (today's value) on both the red and blue lines are lower than the prior low but price is higher. I show that using green lines for your viewing pleasure.

That divergence suggests the index will drop.

I'm not convinced of that, so I think the index will rise in the coming days. I'm using this dip to add to one of my positions.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ABM, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, ALK, ALGT, AYX, APA, ADM, ATO, ADP, BCPC, BECN, BZH, BIG, BKNG, BAH, BFH, BR, BBW, CACI, CDNS, CDAY, CF, CHKP, CVX, CTAS, CLX, CNO, COP, CR, CROX, CSGS, DHR, XRAY, DVN, FANG, DFS, DRQ, EIX, WIRE, EQT, EVH, EXC, FICO, FAST, FLS, GNW, GPN, HLIT, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HNI, HOLX, IEX, ITW, PODD, INTC, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KLAC, LHX, LANC, LDOS, LLY, LMT, MHO, MAS, MDC, MRCY, MLKN, MCO, NBR, NFLX, NWL, NXGN, NI, NTNX, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, OUT, PANW, PDCO, PETS, PFE, PPG, PHM, KWR, RJF, RTX, RLI, ROK, ROP, R, SBH, SLB, SAIC, SHW, SMAR, LUV, SCS, SNPS, TRGP, TER, TEVA, TMO, RIG, TG, UHAL, SLCA, UNH, VMI, WRB, WMT, WU, WMB, WSM, WWW, WWD, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IYZ, IXC, IGE, IEO, EWC, EEM, EIS, EWI, EZA, TUR, PBE, XLE. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/24/23. Slider Trading Quiz! Rounding Bottoms

The Dow dropped by -0.6% or -190.87 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 698 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 361 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 337 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 273/497 or 54.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/109 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Rounding bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AYX, AEE, AEP, AFG, AMN, APA, ADM, ADP, AXS, BECN, BIO, BRC, BFH, BR, BBW, CBT, CPB, CX, CDAY, CF, CRL, CNO, CL, CMTL, CONN, CR, CSGS, DVN, D, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EMN, EIX, EVH, XOM, FICO, FARO, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTNT, FNV, GPN, GFF, HLIT, HE, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HP, HSY, HOLX, HUN, HURC, IDA, IEX, ITW, NSP, PODD, ITGR, TILE, IPI, NVTA, IRM, KALU, KELYA, KLAC, LAMR, LNC, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MRK, MRCY, MOS, NBR, NFG, NTGR, NEWR, NEE, NOC, NUS, OXY, ON, PTEN, PCG, PPG, PINC, RJF, REGN, RNG, ROK, ROP, R, SBH, SAND, SMG, SMAR, TPR, TGT, TDY, TER, TXT, TTD, TRV, TG, TWLO, SLCA, UGI, UPS, UNM, WMT, IYM, IYC, IYE, IHE, QTEC, IHF, IAT, IYZ, MXI, IGE, EWZ, EIS, EWM, TUR, PBE, XLB, USO, SMH, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,590.54    
 Monthly S1  32,263.47  672.94   
 Weekly S2  32,371.21  107.74   
 Weekly S1  32,653.81  282.60   
 Daily S2  32,678.49  24.68   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  32,807.45  128.96   
 Low  32,892.19  84.74   
 Close  32,936.41  44.22   
 Open  32,993.02  56.61   
 Daily Pivot  33,021.15  28.13   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,023.09  1.94   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,063.52  40.43   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,103.95  40.43   
 Daily R1  33,150.11  46.16   
 High  33,234.85  84.74   
 Daily R2  33,363.81  128.96   
 Weekly Pivot  33,400.72  36.91   
 Monthly Pivot  33,519.88  119.16   
 Weekly R1  33,683.32  163.45   
 Monthly R1  34,192.81  509.49   
 Weekly R2  34,430.23  237.42   
 Monthly R2  35,449.21  1,018.98   

Monday 10/23/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

ABC is a chart pattern cleverly titled, three falling peaks. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the lowest valley between the three peaks. That's the horizontal green line and it hasn't happened yet.

The green line also represents support setup by prior valleys.

If the index were to close below the line, it could mean a drop to the blue line (which looks black). All of this potential down move rests on how well earnings come in.

I'm cautious. With today's (Friday's) downward plunge, it looks certain that we'll make a lower low on Monday but it may close higher. If that's the case, then the indices could rebound. Otherwise, look out below.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 314.25 points.
Tuesday: Up 13.11 points.
Wednesday: Down 332.57 points.
Thursday: Down 250.91 points.
Friday: Down 286.89 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 543.01 points or 1.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 423.42 points or 3.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 103.62 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     7.2% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     5.4% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     10.1% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     26.5% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     8.3% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     11.3% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,916  33,022  33,224  33,329  33,531 
Weekly  32,435  32,781  33,464  33,811  34,494 
Monthly  31,654  32,391  33,584  34,320  35,513 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,188  4,206  4,241  4,259  4,295 
Weekly  4,110  4,167  4,280  4,337  4,451 
Monthly  4,052  4,138  4,302  4,388  4,552 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,846  12,915  13,046  13,115  13,246 
Weekly  12,563  12,773  13,188  13,398  13,813 
Monthly  12,445  12,714  13,233  13,502  14,021 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ADTN, AFL, A, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AYX, APA, APOG, ADP, AVNT, BECN, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BR, BBW, BG, CPB, CE, CX, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CL, CMI, DVN, DFS, DRQ, BOOM, EOG, XOM, FLEX, FTNT, IT, GFS, GES, THG, HLIT, HQY, HSII, HP, HSIC, HSY, IEX, ITW, INCY, NSP, IIIN, ITGR, ISRG, NVTA, KELYA, KSS, LHX, LAMR, LNC, LPLA, M, MTRX, MRK, MRCY, MGEE, MOS, MLI, NOV, NEE, NOC, NUS, ASGN, ON, PANW, PYPL, PFE, PCG, POR, PSTG, QTWO, RL, RJF, ROK, ROL, ROP, SBH, SAND, SHOP, STR, SPSC, TGT, TER, TTD, TJX, TWLO, UHAL, UNM, VECO, WMT, WLK, WWW, IYK, IYE, FTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IEV, MXI, IXN, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWG, EWH, EIS, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, DBA, PEJ, ROBO, XLY, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. E-Commerce1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Cement and Aggregates
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. Computer Software and Svcs
4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.4. Semiconductor
5. Cement and Aggregates5. E-Commerce
6. Semiconductor6. Homebuilding
7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
8. IT Services8. Retail (Special Lines)
9. Retail (Special Lines)9. Insurance (Life)
10. Insurance (Life)10. Furn/Home Furnishings
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Securities Brokerage50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Chemical (Diversified)51. Household Products
52. Precision Instrument52. Advertising
53. Telecom. Equipment53. Precision Instrument
54. Advertising54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (Central)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Electric Utility (East)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Food Processing
58. Food Processing58. Telecom. Equipment
59. Medical Supplies59. Medical Supplies
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/20/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 165 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, AYI, ADTN, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AMWD, AME, APA, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, BMI, BECN, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BMY, BR, BBW, BLDR, BG, CPB, CE, CX, CDAY, CHKP, CHD, CGNX, CL, CONN, COP, CSGP, CR, CRH, CMI, DVN, DOV, DUK, BOOM, EXP, EMR, EOG, EFX, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FLEX, FCX, FDP, GNW, GGG, GES, HBI, HLIT, HTLD, HELE, HSIC, HD, HOV, JBHT, ITW, INCY, ITGR, IBKR, ISRG, JNJ, KELYA, KLAC, LHX, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LOW, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MAS, MRK, MU, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, NOV, NEWR, NEE, NWPX, ON, OMI, PANW, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PPG, QCOM, RJF, REGN, ROK, ROP, SEIC, SMTC, SHW, STR, SKYW, SWX, SXI, SCS, SUM, TGT, TER, TJX, TRV, TZOO, TREX, VECO, WMT, WERN, WLK, WMB, WWW, IAI, IYK, IYE, IHE, FXI, IYH, IXC, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, IBB, DBA, PBE, XLV, USO, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AEISDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/02/202310/12/2023Semiconductor
ALBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/29/202310/12/2023Chemical (Diversified)
AATriangle, symmetrical      09/26/202310/18/2023Aerospace/Defense
AFGTriangle, descending      08/31/202310/19/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMWDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/18/202308/30/2023Building Materials
APHTriple top      09/29/202310/12/2023Electronics
ANIKUgly double bottom      09/08/202310/09/2023Biotechnology
APAPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Petroleum (Producing)
AVYTriple top      09/20/202310/11/2023Packaging and Container
BKNGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/09/202309/14/2023Internet
BOOTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/11/202310/17/2023Shoe
CIThree Rising Valleys      08/17/202310/04/2023Medical Services
CLPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Household Products
CTSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/19/202310/06/2023Electronics
DECKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/06/202310/13/2023Shoe
DVNPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
DDSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/06/202310/13/2023Retail Store
DFSTriple top      10/02/202310/17/2023Financial Services
BOOMHead-and-shoulders top      08/23/202309/28/2023Metal Fabricating
EXPBroadening bottom      09/21/202310/19/2023Cement and Aggregates
ELVHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/19/202310/16/2023Medical Services
XOMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/06/202310/11/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
FFIVBroadening bottom      09/14/202309/29/2023Internet
FDXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/31/202309/29/2023Air Transport
FLEXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/29/202310/11/2023Electronics
GEDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/25/202309/20/2023Diversified Co.
GILDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/06/202310/03/2023Biotechnology
GESHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      09/27/202310/13/2023Apparel
THGHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      06/28/202310/11/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HLITPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Telecom. Equipment
HSIIDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/20/202310/12/2023Human Resources
IEXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/28/202310/11/2023Machinery
ITWHead-and-shoulders top      10/06/202310/17/2023Metal Fabricating
IIINHead-and-shoulders top      09/28/202310/17/2023Building Materials
JNJDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/10/202310/17/2023Medical Supplies
KSSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/06/202310/13/2023Retail Store
LAMRPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Advertising
LEGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/29/202310/11/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
LTriple bottom      08/22/202310/04/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MTSIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/28/202310/10/2023Semiconductor
MLMTriple top      10/06/202310/17/2023Cement and Aggregates
MRKDouble Top, Adam and Adam      10/09/202310/16/2023Drug
MLIHead-and-shoulders top      09/20/202310/11/2023Metal Fabricating
NJRBroadening top, right-angled and descending      08/15/202310/18/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
NEUBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/20/202310/19/2023Chemical (Specialty)
NKEPipe bottom      09/18/202309/25/2023Shoe
PGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/06/202310/12/2023Household Products
DGXTriangle, symmetrical      09/26/202310/19/2023Medical Services
RCKYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      10/09/202310/12/2023Shoe
SMTCDead-cat bounce      10/19/202310/19/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SKYWBig M      07/28/202309/01/2023Air Transport
SRPipe bottom      09/25/202310/02/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
TRVDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      10/04/202310/12/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
UHALDouble Top, Eve and Adam      10/10/202310/17/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
VECODouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/29/202310/13/2023Precision Instrument
VRTXTriple bottom      08/04/202310/03/2023Biotechnology
VMCTriple top      10/06/202310/17/2023Cement and Aggregates
WMTPipe bottom      10/02/202310/09/2023Retail Store
WSCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/12/202310/17/2023Industrial Services

 

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Thursday 10/19/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.6% or -219.45 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 99 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 52 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 47 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 52.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 264/469 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There are a number of patterns that I've highlighted on the chart. At A, we see a triple top. The drop after it confirms (becomes valid when price closes below the lowest of the two lows between the three peaks) is significant (all the way down to C).

B is a double top. This one is close to a dud because price didn't drop far.

I debated if C was a double bottom or not. Price made a good climb after it though.

Finally, at D, we see a channel. Notice that the index is at the bottom of the channel. That suggests a move to the top end. I don't know if it'll have enough juice to punch through the top trendline, though.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, A, APD, ALRM, ALB, AME, APA, APOG, ARCB, AVY, BECN, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BMY, BBW, CPB, CX, CENX, CHD, CINF, CGNX, CL, COP, CR, CMI, DVN, ^DJT, DOV, DUK, BOOM, EXP, ELV, EOG, EFX, EG, EXPD, XOM, FLS, GNW, GPRO, HLIT, HQY, HL, HNI, HOV, HUBG, HUN, ITW, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, JNJ, KMB, LZB, LAMR, LDOS, LLY, LOW, LPLA, MAN, MLM, MTRX, MGEE, MS, MOS, NOV, NEE, NWPX, NVDA, OXY, PKG, PATK, PFE, PCG, PPG, PG, RJF, RGS, ROK, RES, SMTC, SKYW, SXI, TGT, TDOC, TER, RIG, TRV, TZOO, UHAL, WMT, WMB, WWD, IYK, IYE, IEZ, FXL, IYZ, IXC, MXI, ILF, IGE, EWI, EWM, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, TUR, PPA, DBA, PJP, PHO, XLP, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLB, USO, VHT, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,417.27    
 Monthly S1  12,865.78  448.52   
 Weekly S2  12,998.65  132.86   
 Daily S2  13,138.67  140.03   
 Weekly S1  13,156.47  17.80   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  13,226.49  70.01   
 Low  13,275.30  48.81   
 Close  13,314.30  39.00   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,361.04  46.74   
 Daily Pivot  13,363.11  2.08   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,387.52  24.41   
 Monthly Pivot  13,411.68  24.16   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,414.00  2.33   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  13,435.31  21.30   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  13,439.68  4.37   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  13,450.93  11.25   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  13,499.74  48.81   
 Daily R2  13,587.55  87.81   
 Weekly R1  13,593.13  5.58   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  13,860.19  267.06   
 Weekly R2  13,871.97  11.77   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Monthly R1.
 Monthly R2  14,406.09  534.12   

Wednesday 10/18/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

We have a cluster of bullish signals as shown by the vertical green bars on the far right of the chart. Below the bars is the CPI line. You can see that it peaks out the right side, showing that it's near the top of the scale (100).

I've mentioned this before, but when the CPI gets near or at the top or bottom ends of the scale, expect a trend change in the index. That's what we might be seeing now.

If you're an Elliott waver, we might see another down leg to complete a 7-wave structure. Having written that, look at the rest of the chart where the CPI line peaks. Notice that the index often continues to rise (there are exceptions, though in late January and August). So maybe the observation of a trend change only applies to bottoms of the scale, and not the top.

Taking in the evidence, it suggests a continued move higher, I think.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 43% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 41%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 73% on 10/20/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 520 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 20%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 32% on 10/20/2022.

The red line, which is the more sensitive of the two, is more bearish this week than a week ago.

The red line looks to be resting on support setup by the move in March. So maybe the upward rise continuing is gathering evidence.

Earnings season is upon us, so that will bounce the indices around. I'm still hopeful that we'll see the markets rise.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 111 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, ATSG, ALB, AR, APA, ATR, ATO, AVNT, BZH, BKH, CALM, CPB, CE, CX, CF, CNA, CNX, CL, COP, CCRN, CW, DVN, FANG, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EOG, EG, XOM, FICO, FLS, FTV, IT, GIS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HTLD, HL, HP, HSIC, IRM, JBLU, LH, LAMR, LLY, LPLA, LXU, MGY, MTDR, MOS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NWL, NEE, NVDA, ORCL, OR, PATK, PCG, PXD, QTWO, RGS, RHI, ROG, RES, SEIC, STR, SKX, SSYS, TRGP, TGT, TER, TWLO, UIS, UPS, UNM, VMI, VEEV, WMT, WU, WSM, WOLF, ITA, IYE, IEZ, IGE, EWS, PPA, DBA, PXJ, UNG, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/17/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.9% or 314.25 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 526 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 306 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 220 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 58.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 272/496 or 54.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/109 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Rectangle bottoms.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 92 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ABM, ACIW, ALRM, AFG, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, BECN, BA, CALM, CAL, COR, CIEN, CL, ED, CONN, COP, COST, CCRN, CW, DRQ, BOOM, ELV, EOG, EG, FFIV, FICO, FIVN, FRD, IT, HBI, THG, HELE, HUBG, ITW, INCY, NSP, IPI, IRM, KSS, LAMR, RAMP, MGY, MAN, MGEE, MUR, NXGN, NOVT, ORCL, OUT, PDCO, PFE, PLXS, RJF, RGA, RES, R, SAIC, SEIC, SIGI, SKX, SR, SRDX, TRGP, VMI, VECO, WU, WLK, WWW, IYC, FXI, IYZ, IGE, EWH, EWI, EWY, TUR, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,805.45    
 Monthly S1  32,895.00  1,089.54   
 Weekly S2  33,027.95  132.96   
 Weekly S1  33,506.25  478.29   
 Daily S2  33,712.09  205.84   
 Weekly Pivot  33,731.98  19.90   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  33,832.42  100.44   
 Open  33,832.42  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  33,848.31  15.89   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,930.43  82.11   
 Monthly Pivot  33,936.48  6.06   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,960.70  24.21   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  33,968.65  7.95   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,984.54  15.89   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,990.97  6.43   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  34,088.98  98.01   
 Daily R1  34,104.88  15.89   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R1  34,210.28  105.40   
 Daily R2  34,225.21  14.93   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  34,436.01  210.80   
 Monthly R1  35,026.03  590.02   
 Monthly R2  36,067.51  1,041.48   

Monday 10/16/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

At EF, we see a double bottom. It becomes a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the horizontal blue line, G. The index meets the measure rule target (the height of the pattern added to the top of it) almost exactly. However, the target is not a magic number. It's really a way to determine the probability of reaching the target.

Pattern AB is the reverse, a double top. It also confirms and more than exceeds its target.

Now we come to pattern D. This is a V-bottom, but I think it's growing an extension.

What does that mean?

I expect the Dow to retrace a portion of the advance, say, for a week or so, before moving higher.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 197.07 points.
Tuesday: Up 134.65 points.
Wednesday: Up 65.57 points.
Thursday: Down 173.73 points.
Friday: Up 39.15 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 262.71 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 24.11 points or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 19.28 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.6% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     7.1% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     7.2% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     30.6% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     6.1% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     14.1% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,320  33,495  33,727  33,901  34,133 
Weekly  32,923  33,297  33,627  34,001  34,331 
Monthly  31,701  32,685  33,832  34,817  35,963 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,274  4,301  4,339  4,366  4,404 
Weekly  4,230  4,279  4,332  4,381  4,435 
Monthly  4,057  4,192  4,352  4,488  4,648 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,205  13,306  13,463  13,564  13,721 
Weekly  13,030  13,218  13,466  13,655  13,903 
Monthly  12,448  12,928  13,443  13,922  14,437 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 0 days.

Here's a symbol list of 212 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, AEIS, APD, ALRM, ALKS, ALGT, ALL, AYX, AMZN, AEL, AXP, AIG, AME, AAPL, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, AZTA, BECN, BMRN, BRC, BR, BBW, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CDAY, CVX, CI, CNO, CNX, CTSH, CL, CMCO, CMTL, CAG, COP, CXW, CR, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CCK, DECK, DVN, FANG, ^DJT, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EME, EMR, EOG, EG, FDS, FORM, FTV, FDP, FRD, GE, GNW, GFS, GMS, GGG, GFF, GES, THG, HIG, HUM, HUN, INCY, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KEYS, KFRC, LHX, LH, LRCX, LNC, LXU, MTSI, M, MGY, MAN, MRO, MTDR, MTRN, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MLI, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NOC, NUS, NVDA, ON, ORCL, OUT, PANW, PTEN, PCTY, PRFT, PFE, PLXS, PPG, PG, PGR, PRU, PSTG, REGN, RGS, ROG, RGLD, RES, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, SMTC, SHOP, STR, SMAR, SWN, SR, SPLK, TRGP, TDY, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TJX, TSCO, TRV, UIS, UNH, UNM, VECO, VMC, WSO, WPM, WMB, WSM, WSC, WWD, WDAY, ITA, IYE, QTEC, FXL, FXI, QQQ, IGV, IXN, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWC, ECH, EWH, EIS, QLD, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLE, GLD, XLI, XLB, SPY, XLK, USO, SMH, VIS, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor Cap Equip.1. Cement and Aggregates
2. Cement and Aggregates2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Computer Software and Svcs3. E-Commerce
4. Semiconductor4. Homebuilding
5. E-Commerce5. Semiconductor
6. Homebuilding6. Computer Software and Svcs
7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
8. Retail (Special Lines)8. Internet
9. Insurance (Life)9. Building Materials
10. Furn/Home Furnishings10. Furn/Home Furnishings
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Metals and Mining (Div.)
51. Household Products51. Natural Gas (Distributor)
52. Advertising52. Advertising
53. Precision Instrument53. Household Products
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Medical Supplies
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Telecom. Equipment
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Electric Utility (Central)
57. Food Processing57. Food Processing
58. Telecom. Equipment58. Electric Utility (East)
59. Medical Supplies59. Electric Utility (West)
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/13/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 232 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, APD, ALGT, ALL, AYX, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AME, ANIK, AR, AWI, AZTA, BAX, BECN, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BRC, BR, BBW, CAL, CE, COR, CDAY, CVX, CIEN, CI, CINF, CNX, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, CXW, COST, CR, CRH, CCRN, CTS, CMI, DECK, FANG, DSGR, ^DJT, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EME, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EG, EXPI, FDS, FICO, FISV, FIVN, FTV, FWRD, FCX, FDP, FRD, GE, GNW, GMS, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, HE, HP, HUN, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, TILE, INTU, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KEYS, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LNC, LMT, L, LXU, MTSI, M, MRO, MTDR, MTRN, MDC, MGEE, MLKN, MCO, MLI, ^IXIC, NTAP, NJR, NOVT, NUS, OXY, ASGN, ON, ORCL, OMI, PCTY, PRFT, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PRU, PSTG, DGX, RL, RJF, RGA, ROG, ROL, R, ^GSPC, SAIA, SCHW, SIGI, SMTC, SCI, SHW, SMAR, SCCO, SWX, SR, SRDX, TPR, TDOC, TDY, TDC, TXN, TXT, TKR, TJX, RIG, TRV, TWLO, UIS, UNM, VRTX, VMC, WSO, WU, WMB, WSC, WWD, WDAY, ITA, IAI, IYK, QTEC, FXL, FXI, QQQ, IGV, MXI, ILF, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWD, QLD, PPA, PEJ, PJP, PHO, SSO, ROBO, XLP, GLD, XHB, XLI, SPY, XAR, UNG, VIS, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDPipe bottom      09/18/202309/25/2023Semiconductor
ATSGBroadening bottom      09/22/202310/05/2023Air Transport
ALGTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/28/202310/06/2023Air Transport
ARDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/25/202310/04/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
ATRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/25/202310/04/2023Packaging and Container
ANETPipe bottom      09/18/202309/25/2023E-Commerce
ADSKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/27/202310/05/2023Computer Software and Svcs
CBTDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/25/202310/04/2023Chemical (Diversified)
CACIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/26/202310/04/2023IT Services
CEHead-and-shoulders top      09/01/202309/29/2023Chemical (Basic)
CNCUgly double bottom      09/01/202310/03/2023Medical Services
CINFDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/28/202309/20/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLFDiamond bottom      09/08/202309/22/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
DSGRBroadening bottom      08/08/202309/12/2023Metal Fabricating
EQTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/25/202310/03/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
EVHBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      09/14/202310/04/2023Healthcare Information
EXPDHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/21/202310/03/2023Air Transport
FASTDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/21/202310/03/2023Retail Building Supply
FTVDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/26/202310/04/2023Industrial Services
GPSDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/20/202310/06/2023Apparel
GDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/12/202310/06/2023Aerospace/Defense
GNWPipe bottom      09/05/202309/11/2023Insurance (Life)
GLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/07/202310/03/2023Insurance (Life)
NSPHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/12/202310/06/2023Human Resources
MLMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/25/202310/03/2023Cement and Aggregates
MRCYPipe bottom      09/05/202309/11/2023Computers and Peripherals
METAPipe bottom      08/14/202308/21/2023E-Commerce
NTAPDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/27/202310/04/2023Computers and Peripherals
NOCTriple bottom      09/11/202310/06/2023Aerospace/Defense
NVDAPipe bottom      09/18/202309/25/2023Semiconductor
ASGNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/12/202310/06/2023Human Resources
ONBroadening top, right-angled and descending      09/18/202310/12/2023Semiconductor
PLXSScallop, descending      09/01/202309/28/2023Electronics
RRCDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/22/202310/04/2023Petroleum (Producing)
RHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/26/202310/02/2023Human Resources
SAICDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/26/202310/06/2023IT Services
SIGIDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/26/202310/05/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SWNHead-and-shoulders top      08/22/202309/14/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
SSYSTriangle, descending      09/12/202309/27/2023Electronics
TPXTriple top      07/27/202309/01/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
UNMBroadening top      08/11/202310/12/2023Insurance (Diversified)
VMCDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      09/25/202310/03/2023Cement and Aggregates
WMBBroadening wedge, descending      08/15/202310/03/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
WWDDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/26/202310/04/2023Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 10/12/23. Ethereum USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.7% or 96.84 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 453 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 273 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 180 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 60.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 264/468 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

The parallel blue lines are channels.

A and B are twin peaks near the same price. It's not a double top yet. If the crypto currency closes below the horizontal red line at C, then it will confirm the twin peak pattern as a valid double top. Should that happen, I'd expect the currency to drop, perhaps dramatically.

Look out below. The sky is about to fall.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ATVI, ALK, ALKS, AEO, AFG, AMWD, AME, AMGN, AZTA, BALL, BAX, BIO, BBW, CALM, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CNA, CNX, CONN, COTY, CCRN, DVN, FANG, EOG, XOM, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FORM, FCX, GNW, GS, GPRO, HE, HOV, IDXX, ILMN, ITGR, INTC, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, KMT, KMB, LAMR, L, MCHX, MGEE, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NOVT, ORCL, OMI, PTEN, PRFT, PG, PGR, RL, ROL, ROST, SMTC, SCI, SHW, SMAR, SCCO, SWX, SR, SPLK, SRDX, TFX, TXT, TMO, TG, TWLO, VRTX, WAT, WDAY, IAI, IYK, FXI, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EIS, EWM, EZA, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, XLP, GLD, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,463.54    
 Weekly S2  12,916.51  452.97   
 Monthly S1  13,061.61  145.10   
 Weekly S1  13,288.10  226.49   
 Weekly Pivot  13,380.18  92.09   
 Daily S2  13,504.87  124.69   
 Low  13,549.29  44.42   
 Monthly Pivot  13,561.23  11.94   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  13,582.28  21.05   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,595.83  13.55   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,610.20  14.38   
 Open  13,619.21  9.01   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,624.58  5.37   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  13,626.69  2.12   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  13,659.68  32.99   
 High  13,671.11  11.43   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  13,704.10  32.99   
 Daily R2  13,748.51  44.42   
 Weekly R1  13,751.77  3.25   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  13,843.85  92.09   
 Monthly R1  14,159.30  315.45   
 Monthly R2  14,658.92  499.62   

Wednesday 10/11/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI bounced off 0 and made a fast move higher, just as I predicted two weeks ago.

However, this could be a recovery to the corrective phase of a measured move down chart pattern. What's that mean? The pattern begins at A and ends at B. It's a stair-step down pattern.

What's key to this is after it ends, price often retraces to C, circled. It's a reliable move.

In this case, it already reached the bottom of C. What happens next? According to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad). A third of the time, price will continue above A, 15% of the time it'll reach above C but below A, and 28% of the time, it'll remain at C.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 41% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 48%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 76% on 10/14/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 20% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 22%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 33% on 10/14/2022.

Both lines made a good recovery compared to a week ago. If you draw a trendline like I show at A (blue), the red line is coming up against overhead resistance setup by that trendline. The catch is, I don't know if the red line cares about any of that.

My guess is we'll see the up trend continue, but maybe at a slower pace.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, ALL, DOX, AEL, AFG, AON, APA, ACGL, AXS, BZH, BAH, CAL, CLS, CX, CNC, CDAY, CHS, CSGP, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CW, DDS, DOV, EIX, EG, FAST, GPS, GNW, THG, HTLD, HSII, HSY, HNI, INTC, INTU, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MKTX, MRCY, META, MGEE, NEWR, NKE, NI, ORI, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, ORCL, OUT, PATK, PRFT, PLXS, PGR, RL, RGA, R, SIGI, SMTC, SKYW, SCCO, SWN, SR, TPR, TKR, TSCO, TRV, UIS, MDRX, WRB, WSO, WERN, IYM, IDU, IEV, IXN, EWA, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, TUR, PBE, PHO, ROBO, XLF, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO, VIS, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/10/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.6% or 197.07 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 896 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 506 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 390 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 271/495 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/109 or 47.7% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Head-and-shoulders tops.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, AMD, ALRM, ALK, AMZN, DOX, AME, AR, ATR, ARCB, ANET, ADSK, BAX, BBY, BIG, BKH, BOOT, BAH, BFH, CACI, CPB, COR, CVX, CTAS, CSCO, CNX, CAG, CMI, CW, FANG, DSGR, ^DJU, ^DJT, DUK, EME, EMR, EPAM, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, GPS, GD, GFF, HL, HD, DHI, INCY, IPG, INTU, IRM, KELYA, KEYS, KFRC, LHX, MHO, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MTDR, MTRN, MRCY, MOS, MLI, ^IXIC, NFLX, NEWR, NWL, NKE, NI, NOC, NVDA, ORI, OMC, ASGN, OUT, PXD, PHM, RRC, RJF, RCKY, ROL, RES, R, ^GSPC, SCHW, SAIC, SMAR, LUV, SR, TXT, TJX, TWLO, UIS, VMI, VRTX, WMB, WDAY, ITA, IYC, ITB, IDU, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IYZ, IGV, ILF, EWZ, EIS, QLD, PPA, PBE, XLY, XHB, XLI, XLU, UNG, VIS. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,678.82    
 Weekly S2  32,625.68  946.85   
 Monthly S1  32,641.74  16.06   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  33,115.16  473.43   
 Daily S2  33,118.60  3.43   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  33,253.69  135.09   
 Open  33,259.87  6.18   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  33,336.43  76.55   
 Daily S1  33,361.63  25.20   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,398.13  36.51   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,442.75  44.62   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,487.37  44.62   
 Daily Pivot  33,496.71  9.35   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,604.65  107.93   
 High  33,631.81  27.16   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,739.74  107.93   
 Monthly Pivot  33,809.85  70.11   
 Weekly R1  33,825.91  16.06   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily R2  33,874.84  48.92   
 Weekly R2  34,047.18  172.34   
 Monthly R1  34,772.77  725.59   
 Monthly R2  35,940.88  1,168.12   

Monday 10/9/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow trany on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

There's not a lot going on in this chart. Price climbed at a steady trend and has dropped in a reflection of the uptrend (similar angle at the apex). The pattern resembles a V-top.

The lower end of the red channel shows the index is itching to rise. It could breakout upward from the channel.

Notice that in the last month, the index has stayed in the lower half of the channel. That's typical and it's something I learned from playing with Andrew's Pitchfork.

Click on the link to learn more about that.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 74.15 points.
Tuesday: Down 430.97 points.
Wednesday: Up 127.17 points.
Thursday: Down 9.98 points.
Friday: Up 288.01 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 99.92 points or 0.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 212.02 points or 1.6%.
The S&P 500 index was up 20.45 points or 0.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.4% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     6.3% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     7.0% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     30.8% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     6.5% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     13.6% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,560  32,984  33,271  33,695  33,981 
Weekly  32,560  32,984  33,271  33,695  33,981 
Monthly  31,613  32,510  33,744  34,641  35,875 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,180  4,244  4,284  4,349  4,389 
Weekly  4,175  4,242  4,283  4,350  4,391 
Monthly  4,049  4,179  4,346  4,476  4,644 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,961  13,196  13,334  13,569  13,707 
Weekly  12,840  13,136  13,304  13,600  13,768 
Monthly  12,387  12,909  13,485  14,007  14,583 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 7 days.

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ATVI, AYI, AMD, AEE, AEL, AMGN, AR, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ANET, ADP, AVY, AVA, BAX, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BG, CBT, CPB, CNC, CHD, CLNE, CNX, CR, CRH, CCK, DHR, DVN, DSGR, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EIX, WIRE, EG, XOM, FDX, FE, FLS, FORM, GPS, GOOGL, GGG, THG, HE, HL, HSII, HSIC, IDXX, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, INTU, IRM, K, KFRC, KLAC, LEN, LXU, M, MANH, MKTX, MTRX, MDT, MU, MLKN, MUR, NFG, NEWR, NWL, NKE, NTNX, NVDA, ON, OR, PAYX, PFE, PLXS, PPG, PRU, PSTG, RRC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, RGLD, SLB, SMTC, SWN, SPSC, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TER, TTD, RIG, TG, UIS, VLO, VMI, VEEV, MDRX, VRTX, WMT, WMB, XEL, IYE, FDN, FXI, IGV, MXI, EWC, EWH, EIS, EWY, DBA, PHO, ROBO, XLP, XLE, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Cement and Aggregates1. Homebuilding
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Internet
3. E-Commerce3. E-Commerce
4. Homebuilding4. Cement and Aggregates
5. Semiconductor5. Petroleum (Producing)
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. Computer Software and Svcs
7. Trucking/Transp. Leasing7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
8. Internet8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
9. Building Materials9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
10. Furn/Home Furnishings10. Insurance (Life)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Metals and Mining (Div.)50. Chemical (Diversified)
51. Natural Gas (Distributor)51. Advertising
52. Advertising52. Securities Brokerage
53. Household Products53. Metal Fabricating
54. Medical Supplies54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Telecom. Equipment55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Electric Utility (Central)56. Medical Supplies
57. Food Processing57. Food Processing
58. Electric Utility (East)58. Electric Utility (West)
59. Electric Utility (West)59. Telecom. Equipment
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 10/6/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 115 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABM, AXDX, AMD, AFL, A, AKAM, ALK, ALB, ALL, AEL, APA, APOG, ARCB, ANET, AGO, BERY, CPB, COR, CNC, CIEN, CTAS, CLX, CNO, CNX, CTSH, CMCO, CONN, CXW, CROX, CCK, CSGS, DVN, DSGR, DRQ, BOOM, XOM, FORM, FTV, FCX, GPS, GFS, HIG, NSP, ITGR, TILE, JNJ, KEYS, KFRC, KLIC, LAMR, L, LXU, MTSI, MCHX, MDT, MUR, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NEE, NKE, NOC, NVDA, OXY, ON, PATK, PRU, RNG, R, SLB, SLGN, SMAR, SPLK, SRDX, TRGP, TDY, TXN, TJX, TDG, RIG, TRV, TG, UHAL, UIS, UNH, MDRX, VRTX, IYE, MXI, ILF, IEO, EWZ, EIS, EWW, THD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, XRT, UNG, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      09/26/202310/04/2023Industrial Services
ACIWTriple top      07/18/202308/31/2023IT Services
ADTNBroadening bottom      09/18/202310/02/2023Telecom. Equipment
BERYThree Falling Peaks      07/25/202309/01/2023Packaging and Container
BSXTriple top      08/30/202309/20/2023Medical Services
CALMDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/08/202309/26/2023Food Processing
CHDHead-and-shoulders top      05/03/202309/01/2023Household Products
CNXBroadening top      08/21/202310/04/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
COPHead-and-shoulders top      09/05/202309/28/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
CTSDiamond bottom      09/08/202310/05/2023Electronics
CWHead-and-shoulders top      08/09/202309/20/2023Machinery
FANGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/14/202309/28/2023Petroleum (Producing)
DSGRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/05/202309/21/2023Metal Fabricating
FLSTriple top      09/12/202309/29/2023Machinery
FORMPipe bottom      09/11/202309/18/2023Semiconductor
ITBroadening top      08/31/202309/28/2023IT Services
GDDouble Top, Eve and Eve      09/20/202310/03/2023Aerospace/Defense
HBIHead-and-shoulders top      07/26/202309/01/2023Apparel
HPDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/31/202309/14/2023Petroleum (Producing)
HNIRising wedge      09/01/202310/05/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
HONBroadening bottom      08/18/202310/05/2023Aerospace/Defense
INFNHead-and-shoulders top      08/15/202309/14/2023Telecom. Equipment
LXUTriangle, descending      07/06/202310/05/2023Building Materials
MGYHead-and-shoulders top      08/09/202309/27/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MROTriple top      09/05/202309/14/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
MTDRHead-and-shoulders top      08/21/202309/27/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MSHead-and-shoulders top      06/16/202309/19/2023Securities Brokerage
MURBroadening wedge, descending      09/05/202310/04/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
NBRHead-and-shoulders top      09/05/202309/28/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NFGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      09/01/202309/19/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
JWNDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      09/13/202309/26/2023Retail Store
OXYHead-and-shoulders top      09/05/202309/28/2023Petroleum (Producing)
PDCOPipe bottom      09/11/202309/18/2023Medical Supplies
PTENDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/27/202309/14/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PNWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/24/202309/20/2023Electric Utility (West)
PEGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      08/30/202309/15/2023Electric Utility (East)
RJFDouble Top, Eve and Eve      07/26/202309/14/2023Securities Brokerage
SLBDouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/12/202309/28/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TRGPDouble Top, Adam and Adam      09/01/202309/28/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
TDYDouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/01/202309/20/2023Aerospace/Defense
TDCRectangle bottom      08/21/202310/05/2023Computer Software and Svcs
RIGFlag, high and tight      12/07/202202/16/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SLCADouble Top, Eve and Adam      09/14/202309/28/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
VDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      09/27/202310/03/2023Financial Services
WPMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      08/30/202309/20/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
XLKHead-and-shoulders top      06/16/202309/05/2023IT Services

 

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Thursday 10/5/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.4% or 176.54 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 122 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 70 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 52 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 264/467 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is a busy chart, so lets start from the left. A right-angled and descending broadening chart pattern appears at E. Price breaks out downward and meets the measure rule target (breakout price minus pattern height). I show that in blue.

There's a head-and-shoulders bottom at SHS near the middle of the chart. This chart pattern resulted in a good gain, too, meeting or exceeding the measure rule target for the pattern.

At AB is a double top. If you expand the view to include C and D, we see a complex head-and-shoulders top. This one has two heads (AB) and two shoulders (CD). It also met the measure rule target...barely.

Elliott wavers, of which I am NOT one, may say to expect an ABC correction (down, up, down move). That's my interpretation of the move higher from the Tuesday's low (5 segment motive wave). Extensions can throw off the wave count, so what do I know?

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AMD, AES, APD, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AYX, AME, AMN, AR, APA, ANET, BZH, BBY, BOOT, BRC, CACI, CALM, COR, CRL, CVX, CIEN, CNA, CTSH, CONN, COP, CCRN, DVN, DSGR, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EMR, EOG, XOM, FDS, FICO, FNV, FCX, GPS, THG, HE, HAYN, HD, ITGR, INTC, IRM, JAZZ, KELYA, KEYS, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LH, LMT, L, MCHX, MDT, META, MUR, NTGR, NWL, NEE, NKE, NVDA, OXY, OLN, ON, PANW, PFE, PXD, RTX, RNG, ROL, ROP, R, SAND, SLB, SIGI, SMTC, TEVA, RIG, TG, SLCA, UGI, UIS, VLO, MDRX, WRB, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IAT, IGV, IXC, IXN, ILF, IEO, EWA, EWC, EEM, EIS, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWP, PXJ, XLE, GLD, XLK, USO, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,263.14    
 Monthly S1  12,749.57  486.44   
 Weekly S2  12,774.23  24.66   
 Daily S2  13,002.84  228.61   
 Weekly S1  13,005.12  2.28   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  13,072.51  67.39   
 Open  13,092.92  20.41   
 Daily S1  13,119.43  26.51   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,143.66  24.23   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,165.63  21.98   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,187.61  21.98   
 Daily Pivot  13,189.09  1.48   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  13,194.05  4.96   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  13,236.01  41.96   
 High  13,258.76  22.75   
 Daily R1  13,305.68  46.92   
 Daily R2  13,375.34  69.67   
 Weekly R1  13,424.94  49.60   
 Monthly Pivot  13,449.60  24.66   
 Weekly R2  13,613.87  164.27   
 Monthly R1  13,936.03  322.16   
 Monthly R2  14,636.06  700.02   

Wednesday 10/4/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

We're back to two bearish bars separated by neutral ones.

Notice at the bottom of the chart, the thin blue CPI line. It's either at 0 or close to it. That's bearish but it could also mean that the only direction to go is up.

In the past, the time spent at 0 is brief. That suggests this drop is near an end. Of course, that's just a guess.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 48% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 43%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 76% on 10/14/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 522 stocks in my database are down an average of 22% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 33% on 10/14/2022.

Both lines this week are worse off compared to a week ago. No surprise there. The lines are convergent, too, so they are saying, "Look out below!"

Based on underlying support, it looks as if the Dow could drop to 32,600 before rebounding. By that, I mean the 32,600 level is the next level of good support. It might not be enough to stop the tumble, though. I still believe the drop is about over. I'm bullish and have been adding to existing positions.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 160 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AMD, AES, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMED, AMWD, APH, APA, ANET, AIZ, AGO, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BBY, BSX, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CPB, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, CONN, COTY, CCRN, DSGR, DOV, BOOM, EMR, FARO, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, GE, GPN, GS, GES, HLIT, HIG, HE, HD, ITGR, IRM, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LEN, MCHX, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MS, NEWR, NWL, NKE, NVDA, OLN, ON, OMI, PANW, PCTY, PEN, PETS, PNW, PFG, PHM, PSTG, RL, RGA, RNG, RHI, RCKY, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SUM, TEVA, TJX, TDG, RIG, TG, UGI, UIS, UNM, VLO, WEX, WPM, WWD, IYM, IAI, IYE, FXI, IYH, IAT, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PBE, PJP, XLE, XHB, VHT. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 10/3/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -74.15 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1249 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 624 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 625 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 271/495 or 54.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 51/108 or 47.2% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Three falling peaks.

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Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AFL, ALB, ALKS, AFG, APA, ACGL, ADP, AVY, AVA, BECN, BBY, BIIB, BFH, CACI, CPB, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CINF, CTAS, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CR, CRH, CSGS, CW, DHR, DVN, DOV, EXP, EME, EMR, EOG, FIS, FE, FORM, GE, GFS, GMS, GS, GFF, GES, HLIT, HE, HELE, DHI, HWM, IDA, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPG, NVTA, IRM, JAZZ, JNJ, KMT, KSS, LH, LANC, RAMP, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MLKN, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NEWR, NEE, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OR, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PNW, PXD, POR, PINC, DGX, RCKY, SAND, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SKYW, SWX, SPLK, SXI, TDG, RIG, UIS, UNH, VMI, VMC, WPM, WMB, WSC, IYE, IYH, IAT, IXC, IXN, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWJ, EWM, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, XLE, GLD, XLU, VHT, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,172.71    
 Monthly S1  32,803.03  630.32   
 Weekly S2  32,874.50  71.46   
 Daily S2  33,095.92  221.43   
 Weekly S1  33,153.92  58.00   
 Low  33,219.56  65.64   
 Daily S1  33,264.64  45.08   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,331.24  66.60   
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,365.73  34.50   
 Daily Pivot  33,388.27  22.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,400.23  11.96   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  33,433.35  33.12   
 Open  33,455.50  22.15   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 High  33,511.91  56.41   
 Daily R1  33,556.99  45.08   
 Weekly Pivot  33,585.73  28.74   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  33,680.63  94.90   
 Weekly R1  33,865.15  184.53   
 Monthly Pivot  33,936.62  71.47   
 Weekly R2  34,296.96  360.34   
 Monthly R1  34,566.94  269.98   
 Monthly R2  35,700.53  1,133.59   

Monday 10/2/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

Forecast

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 43.04 points.
Tuesday: Down 388 points.
Wednesday: Down 68.61 points.
Thursday: Up 116.07 points.
Friday: Down 158.84 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 456.34 points or 1.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 7.51 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was down 32.01 points or 0.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     6.1% down from the high of 35,679.13 on 08/01/2023.
     6.6% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     8.5% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     28.8% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     6.9% down from the high of 4,607.07 on 07/27/2023.
     13.0% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,117  33,312  33,603  33,798  34,089 
Weekly  32,899  33,203  33,610  33,915  34,322 
Monthly  32,197  32,852  33,961  34,616  35,725 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,240  4,264  4,299  4,323  4,357 
Weekly  4,189  4,238  4,288  4,338  4,388 
Monthly  4,053  4,171  4,356  4,473  4,659 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,054  13,137  13,260  13,343  13,466 
Weekly  12,769  12,994  13,188  13,414  13,608 
Monthly  12,258  12,738  13,444  13,925  14,630 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 195 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACIW, AFL, APD, AA, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AEO, AXP, AME, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, ADP, AVY, AVA, BSET, BECN, BZH, BIG, BRC, BR, CACI, CAL, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CTAS, CNO, CL, CONN, COTY, CR, CRH, CCRN, CMI, CW, DVN, DSGR, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EBAY, EME, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EL, FAST, FIS, FISV, FORM, FWRD, GME, GD, GE, GFS, GL, GMS, GS, GFF, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HWM, HUBG, HUN, IIIN, PODD, ITGR, TILE, IPG, KMT, KLAC, LANC, LMT, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEWR, NEU, JWN, OXY, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PXD, PINC, PSTG, QTWO, RMBS, RLI, ROP, SAND, SLB, SAIC, SIGI, NOW, SHOP, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SPLK, TFX, TER, TDG, TRV, UHAL, VFC, VMI, MDRX, V, VMC, WRB, WMT, WMB, WSC, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QQQ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SLV, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLK, VHT, VIS, MGK. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Internet2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. E-Commerce3. Insurance (Life)
4. Cement and Aggregates4. Petroleum (Producing)
5. Petroleum (Producing)5. Cement and Aggregates
6. Computer Software and Svcs6. Internet
7. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment7. E-Commerce
8. Trucking/Transp. Leasing8. Computer Software and Svcs
9. Semiconductor Cap Equip.9. Insurance (Diversified)
10. Insurance (Life)10. Building Materials
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Diversified)50. Human Resources
51. Advertising51. Precision Instrument
52. Securities Brokerage52. Advertising
53. Metal Fabricating53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Securities Brokerage
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Metal Fabricating
56. Medical Supplies56. Food Processing
57. Food Processing57. Medical Supplies
58. Electric Utility (West)58. Short ETFs
59. Telecom. Equipment59. Telecom. Equipment
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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