Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22
As of 11/25/2022
  Indus: 34,347 +152.97 +0.4%  
  Trans: 14,443 +62.16 +0.4%  
  Utils: 972 +6.42 +0.7%  
  Nasdaq: 11,226 -58.96 -0.5%  
  S&P 500: 4,026 -1.14 0.0%  
YTD
-5.5%  
-12.4%  
-0.9%  
-28.2%  
-15.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 11/11/2022  
  Up arrow35,000 or 32,000 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow15,300 or 13,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow1,000 or 925 by 12/15/2022
  Up arrow11,850 or 10,400 by 12/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 12/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 11/4/22

 

August 2022 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 8/23/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Southwest Water (SWWC)

The Dow dropped by -1.9% or -643.13 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 104 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 59 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.7% on 45 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 56.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 250/448 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/98 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southwest Water: SWWC stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 248 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, AMD, APD, ALRM, ALK, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AEP, AEL, AMWD, AAPL, ACGL, ARW, ATO, ADSK, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BA, BRC, CBT, CDNS, CX, CENX, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, ED, GLW, CRH, CCK, CMI, XRAY, DDS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, ^DJI, DRQ, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EVH, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLS, FORM, FTNT, IT, GE, GPN, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, HBI, THG, HE, HQY, HSII, HELE, HNI, HD, DHI, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, IPG, IPI, INTU, ISRG, JBLU, KBH, KBAL, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LAMR, LEN, LNC, L, LXU, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MDT, META, MU, MSFT, MCO, MS, MUR, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NCR, NWL, NKE, NWPX, OXY, OTEX, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PPG, PHM, KWR, RL, RJF, RNG, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TECH, TFX, TPX, TDC, TER, TXT, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, TG, TREX, SLCA, VFC, VEEV, V, WMT, WSO, WERN, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, ITB, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IYZ, IGV, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, UNG, VHT, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,200.79    
 Monthly S1  31,132.20  1,931.41   
 Daily S2  32,640.32  1,508.12   
 Monthly Pivot  32,706.78  66.46   
 Daily S1  32,851.96  145.19   
 Weekly S2  32,944.24  92.28   
 Weekly S1  33,003.93  59.68   
 Low  33,007.63  3.70   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  33,063.61  55.98   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  33,219.28  155.67   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,228.79  9.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,297.11  68.32   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,365.43  68.32   
 Daily R1  33,430.92  65.50   
 High  33,586.59  155.67   
 Open  33,586.59  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Weekly Pivot  33,642.64  56.05   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  33,702.33  59.68   
 Daily R2  33,798.24  95.91   
 Weekly R2  34,341.04  542.80   
 Monthly R1  34,638.19  297.15   
 Monthly R2  36,212.77  1,574.58   

Monday 8/22/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Let's take it alphabetically, starting with point A.

The ABC pattern could be a head-and-shoulders bottom. A is the left shoulder, B is the head, and C is the right shoulder. Shoulder A is higher than C, making the head-and-shoulders look like it has a medical problem.

If ABC represents a head-and-shoulders then a close above the neckline (the thin, red diagonal line) signals a buy. In this case, it represents a good entry price. That happens at D.

If you believe BC represents a double bottom or even an ugly double bottom, then the buy signal is higher, at E (the blue line).

Finally, horizontal line FG shows overhead resistance. Valley F seems to halt the rise at G, forcing price down.

This is the start of the retrace that I've been expecting. The index could drop to about half the CG rise, perhaps stalling at the knot of support just above E, at about 32,600.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 151.39 points.
Tuesday: Up 239.57 points.
Wednesday: Down 171.69 points.
Thursday: Up 18.72 points.
Friday: Down 292.3 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 54.31 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 341.97 points or 2.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 51.67 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.8% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     13.7% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.
Nasdaq
     19.9% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     20.3% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.
S&P 500
     12.2% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     16.3% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,469  33,588  33,746  33,865  34,024 
Weekly  33,159  33,433  33,857  34,131  34,555 
Monthly  29,415  31,561  32,921  35,067  36,427 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,190  4,209  4,238  4,257  4,285 
Weekly  4,151  4,190  4,257  4,296  4,364 
Monthly  3,616  3,922  4,124  4,430  4,632 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,562  12,634  12,746  12,818  12,931 
Weekly  12,348  12,526  12,854  13,033  13,360 
Monthly  10,508  11,607  12,394  13,492  14,280 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AJRD, ALRM, ALK, AYX, AEP, ATR, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BBBY, BMRN, BAH, BFH, CTXS, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CL, ED, COTY, CCK, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, DUK, EFX, FLS, GME, GE, GPRO, THG, HSY, HNI, NSP, IBP, IBKR, TILE, INTU, NVTA, JKHY, KBAL, KSS, LANC, LDOS, LEN, LNC, MANH, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MYGN, NJR, NEU, NUS, OXY, ORI, OMI, PCG, PINC, RGS, RNG, RHI, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SLGN, SCS, TPR, TDOC, TFX, TZOO, TREX, UGI, VFC, VMC, WLK, WOLF, WDAY, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, THD, TUR, EWU, ROBO, IEV, ILF, XLY, XLB, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Natural Gas (Diversified)
2. Natural Gas (Diversified)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Electric Utility (West)5. Electric Utility (West)
6. Electric Utility (East)6. Electric Utility (East)
7. Natural Gas (Distributor)7. Natural Gas (Distributor)
8. Food Processing8. Metal Fabricating
9. Metal Fabricating9. Food Processing
10. Chemical (Diversified)10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Apparel50. Human Resources
51. Semiconductor51. Telecom. Equipment
52. Advertising52. Medical Supplies
53. Telecom. Equipment53. Advertising
54. Medical Supplies54. Semiconductor
55. Investment Co. (Foreign)55. Homebuilding
56. Semiconductor Cap Equip.56. E-Commerce
57. Computers and Peripherals57. Apparel
58. Homebuilding58. Computers and Peripherals
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Toiletries/Cosmetics
60. Internet60. Internet

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/19/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADTN, AMD, ALL, AEO, AEP, AFG, AMN, ARCB, ASH, BMI, BCPC, BBBY, BMRN, BAH, CF, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CL, CMCO, ED, CAG, CCRN, CCK, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EVH, XOM, FFIV, FISV, FLS, FORM, GD, GIS, GPN, GOOGL, THG, HLIT, HNI, NSP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, KBAL, KMB, LZB, LH, LNC, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MUR, NBR, NJR, NEU, NOC, OXY, OGE, ORI, OUT, OMI, PDCO, PCG, PLXS, RL, RNG, RCKY, ^GSPC, SLB, SAIC, SRE, SHW, SCS, TDOC, RIG, TREX, UGI, V, WRB, WSM, WOLF, IEZ, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IHF, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWK, EWH, EZA, EWY, TUR, QLD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IXC, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AKAMUgly double bottom      07/14/202208/10/2022E-Commerce
ACGLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/202207/14/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BCPCPipe bottom      08/01/202208/08/2022Chemical (Specialty)
CVXTriangle, symmetrical      07/29/202208/18/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
CSCOBig W      05/19/202207/05/2022Computers and Peripherals
CLFRising wedge      07/07/202208/04/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CNAPipe bottom      08/01/202208/08/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CLThree Rising Valleys      06/16/202208/11/2022Household Products
XRAYBig W      06/16/202207/14/2022Medical Supplies
FMCUgly double bottom      07/14/202208/05/2022Chemical (Basic)
GPSHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/23/202207/26/2022Apparel
THGPipe bottom      08/01/202208/08/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HNIPipe bottom      08/01/202208/08/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
DHIRising wedge      07/21/202208/18/2022Homebuilding
IPITriangle, ascending      07/29/202208/18/2022Chemical (Diversified)
MCHXPipe bottom      08/01/202208/08/2022Advertising
NWLHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/24/202207/14/2022Household Products
JWNUgly double bottom      07/14/202207/26/2022Retail Store
NOCUgly double bottom      07/28/202208/08/2022Aerospace/Defense
OGEHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      05/02/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (Central)
ORIThree Rising Valleys      06/17/202208/05/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PKGTriple bottom      06/23/202208/05/2022Packaging and Container
PDCOBroadening top      07/20/202208/18/2022Medical Supplies
QCOMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/29/202208/09/2022Telecom. Equipment
RGSFlag, high and tight      08/09/202208/17/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
RNGTriangle, descending      06/14/202208/17/2022Computer Software and Svcs
RLIDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/22/202208/05/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SEICRising wedge      07/08/202208/09/2022IT Services
SOTriangle, symmetrical      07/01/202207/22/2022Electric Utility (East)
SLCAHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      06/23/202207/21/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
WOLFFlag, high and tight      06/16/202208/18/2022Semiconductor
ZBRADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      08/03/202208/09/2022Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 8/18/22. Ethereum Review

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.3% or -164.43 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 122 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 51 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.7% on 71 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 58.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 244/430 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum .

$ $ $

When I look at the chart of Ethereum on the daily scale, at home, this is what I see.

The flag thing (mid June) is a chart pattern called a high and tight flag. It means the security doubled within two months. Years ago, it performed well but when the markets figured that out, performance deteriorated substantially. That was for stocks, not cryptocurrency. Maybe it has some use in the crypto universe.

Next are the two Bs. That's really a symbol for an ugly double bottom. That chart pattern has a second bottom well above the first one. The coin took its time but it responded by moving higher in mid July (V).

The last pattern is actually three Vs. That's a three rising valleys chart pattern where each valley is higher than the prior one and the three valleys look similar (my computer doesn't pay much attention to their shape).

All three patterns point to the currency moving higher and it has.

That's the good news. The bad news is there's overhead resistance lurking near where the coin is now. It wouldn't surprise me to see the coin retrace here. If fact, I expect it to drop soon (days to a few weeks).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADTN, AMD, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BBBY, BMRN, BAH, BMY, CNA, CGNX, COP, CCK, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, DTE, DUK, BOOM, FLEX, FORM, FCX, THG, HLIT, HTLD, HSII, HSIC, HNI, KBAL, KLIC, LHX, LLY, LNC, MCHX, NJR, NOC, NWPX, OXY, OMI, PATK, PDCO, PETS, PCG, PPL, PINC, RGS, RNG, RCKY, SAIA, SLB, SAIC, SMTC, SCS, TECH, TXN, TREX, VRSN, WAT, WSO, IYE, IHF, SLV, IEO, EWK, ECH, EWS, EWY, EWD, TUR, IXC, XLE, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,289.15    
 Monthly S1  11,613.64  1,324.48   
 Weekly S2  12,199.73  586.09   
 Monthly Pivot  12,330.41  130.69   
 Weekly S1  12,568.92  238.51   
 Daily S2  12,761.05  192.12   
 Weekly Pivot  12,808.06  47.01   
 Daily S1  12,849.58  41.53   
 Low  12,863.01  13.43   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,935.78  72.77   
 Close  12,938.12  2.34   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  12,951.55  13.43   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,958.26  6.71   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  12,968.63  10.37   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,980.74  12.11   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  13,040.08  59.34   
 High  13,053.51  13.43   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  13,142.05  88.54   
 Weekly R1  13,177.25  35.21   
 Weekly R2  13,416.39  239.13   
 Monthly R1  13,654.90  238.51   
 Monthly R2  14,371.67  716.78   

Wednesday 8/17/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator remains bullish but that may not be obvious from the chart. It shows the last signal as a white bar, which is neutral and yet the thin blue line says the signal is bullish. I'll have to look into the problem and see what I can find out. [I fixed the problem Wednesday morning. It now shows a vertical green bar as a bullish signal.]

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 47% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 58%.
The fewest was 20% on 08/27/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 453 stocks in my database are down an average of 21% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 12% on 08/27/2021.
And the bottom was 33% on 06/16/2022.

Both the red and blue lines have improved substantially this week compared to a week ago. It now looks like the long-term downtrend (from November) has ended. That's really hard to say because this might only be an upward retrace in a downward price trend.

If you look at the price trend, clearly the index has been rising. That rise makes be believe we're well past the bottom of this (bull or bear) market.

The prior chart is bullish and so is this one. It suggests there's more room to climb but after climbing in a straight-line run higher for so long, I expect a retrace. I don't know when it will happen, but believe it will.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AMD, AJRD, ALL, DOX, AEP, AEL, AMGN, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BBBY, BBY, BMRN, BAH, BRC, BFH, BBW, CAL, CNP, CENX, CF, CRL, CLX, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CL, GLW, COTY, CR, CCRN, CCK, CW, DDS, DSGR, DRQ, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EMR, EQT, EVH, FICO, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FDP, GD, GES, HBI, THG, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HD, JBHT, HURC, INFN, IBP, KBAL, KSS, LNC, MTSI, M, MCHX, MAS, MGEE, NBR, NOV, NWL, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OMI, PCG, PINC, RL, RHI, RCKY, SLB, SMG, SLGN, SWN, SXI, SCS, TGT, TECH, RIG, VFC, V, WMT, ITA, IHF, EWK, ECH, EWS, EWT, EWU, PPA, PXJ, MXI, XLP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/16/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.4% or 151.39 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1126 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 595 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 531 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 249/447 or 55.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/98 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southwestern Energy: SWN stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, ATSG, ALKS, DOX, AEP, ABC, ARW, ATO, BMI, BBBY, BBY, BIG, BAH, BRC, BFH, BBW, CACI, CAL, CHS, CLX, CTSH, CMTL, CAG, CCRN, CCK, DDS, DSGR, DTE, EXPD, FICO, FLEX, GILD, HAYN, HSII, HELE, HSY, HOV, HUBG, IPG, NVTA, KFRC, KMB, LDOS, MTSI, MCHX, MA, META, MGEE, NWL, JWN, OGE, PCG, PPL, PG, PGR, RGS, SAIA, SMG, SLGN, LUV, SWX, SXI, SCS, TPR, UGI, V, WAT, XEL, EWJ, XLP, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,984.66    
 Monthly S1  31,448.55  2,463.89   
 Weekly S2  32,396.30  947.75   
 Monthly Pivot  32,607.82  211.52   
 Weekly S1  33,154.37  546.55   
 Daily S2  33,444.95  290.58   
 Weekly Pivot  33,460.73  15.78   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  33,582.96  122.23   
 Daily S1  33,678.70  95.73   
 Open  33,710.70  32.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,724.97  14.27   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,768.84  43.87   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,812.70  43.87   
 Daily Pivot  33,816.70  4.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,912.44  95.74   
 High  33,954.71  42.27   
 Daily R1  34,050.45  95.73   
 Daily R2  34,188.45  138.01   
 Weekly R1  34,218.80  30.35   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  34,525.16  306.36   
 Monthly R1  35,071.71  546.55   
 Monthly R2  36,230.98  1,159.27   

Monday 8/15/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

EA is a chart pattern called an Eve & Adam double bottom. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the peak between the two bottoms. I show that with the horizontal red line.

After I found the double bottom, I looked at the mirrors. Those are the blue lines.

Imagine a vertical line that acts as a mirror from left of the line to the right. I don't show this line, but the mirror is clear. The lowest blue line shows a peak in June that mirrors the peak in August.

The highest blue line joins the peak on the right with those on the left.

The green line, taking into account of overhead resistance setup by the peaks earlier in the year (shown by the top blue line), represents a ceiling that the index is going to have trouble penetrating. I expect the index to follow the green line lower.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 29.07 points.
Tuesday: Down 58.13 points.
Wednesday: Up 535.1 points.
Thursday: Up 27.16 points.
Friday: Up 424.38 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 957.58 points or 2.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 389.64 points or 3.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 134.96 points or 3.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     8.6% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     13.9% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.
Nasdaq
     17.7% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     23.5% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.
S&P 500
     11.2% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     17.7% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,273  33,517  33,642  33,886  34,011 
Weekly  32,346  33,053  33,410  34,118  34,475 
Monthly  28,934  31,348  32,557  34,971  36,181 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,199  4,240  4,260  4,300  4,321 
Weekly  4,056  4,168  4,224  4,336  4,393 
Monthly  3,535  3,908  4,094  4,467  4,653 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,746  12,897  12,972  13,123  13,198 
Weekly  12,236  12,642  12,844  13,250  13,453 
Monthly  10,326  11,686  12,367  13,728  14,408 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 77 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, DOX, AEP, AFG, ACGL, ARW, ATO, AVNT, BMI, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BBW, CACI, CAL, CPB, CF, CHS, CTSH, CAG, CCRN, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EIX, WIRE, RE, FLEX, FWRD, GD, HBI, HSII, IDXX, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, LDOS, LEN, MCHX, META, MGEE, NFG, NWL, NEU, JWN, OGE, OTEX, PFE, ROK, RCKY, SAIA, SMTC, SCCO, SWX, SXI, UGI, UNM, WAT, XEL, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWW, EPP, EWL, EWT, EWU, IEV, MXI. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Natural Gas (Diversified)1. Natural Gas (Diversified)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Electric Utility (Central)
5. Electric Utility (West)5. Electric Utility (West)
6. Electric Utility (East)6. Aerospace/Defense
7. Natural Gas (Distributor)7. Food Processing
8. Metal Fabricating8. Electric Utility (East)
9. Food Processing9. Natural Gas (Distributor)
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Human Resources50. Medical Supplies
51. Telecom. Equipment51. Shoe
52. Medical Supplies52. Advertising
53. Advertising53. Investment Co. (Foreign)
54. Semiconductor54. Telecom. Equipment
55. Homebuilding55. Apparel
56. E-Commerce56. E-Commerce
57. Apparel57. Toiletries/Cosmetics
58. Computers and Peripherals58. Homebuilding
59. Toiletries/Cosmetics59. Internet
60. Internet60. Computers and Peripherals

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/12/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACN, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALB, ALL, AYX, AEL, AIG, AMN, APH, ANIK, AON, APOG, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, ATO, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BMI, BERY, BIG, BIIB, BKH, BA, BKNG, BBW, CACI, CAL, CLS, CVX, CHS, CHD, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, COP, GLW, CROX, CCRN, DECK, DVN, DDS, DTE, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EQT, RE, FICO, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FDP, IT, GE, GIS, GS, HIG, HP, HSY, IDXX, ITGR, IBKR, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KMB, LDOS, RAMP, L, LXU, M, MA, MTRN, META, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MS, MUR, ^IXIC, NOV, NWL, NEE, JWN, OXY, OGE, ORI, OXM, PTEN, PFE, PFG, PG, PGR, PRU, KWR, RJF, RGA, RNG, ROG, RES, SAIA, CRM, SCHW, SMTC, NOW, LUV, SWN, SXI, TPR, TPX, TER, TEVA, TKR, TRV, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, WRB, WAT, WERN, XEL, ZBRA, IAI, IYE, IEZ, FDN, QQQ, ICF, IHF, IAT, IGV, IGE, IEO, IYF, EWO, EWC, EEM, EWM, EZA, EWT, THD, TUR, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PXJ, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, XLF, XLI, XRT, XLK, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      07/20/202208/08/2022Medical Supplies
ANFHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/01/202207/27/2022Apparel
AXDXDead-cat bounce      08/08/202208/08/2022Medical Services
AADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      07/06/202207/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
ALLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/21/202208/04/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMEDTriangle, symmetrical      07/22/202208/11/2022Medical Services
AEODouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/01/202207/26/2022Apparel
ABCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/14/202208/03/2022Biotechnology
APOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/202207/14/2022Building Materials
ARWPipe top      07/25/202208/01/2022Electronics
ASHThree Rising Valleys      06/17/202208/01/2022Chemical (Basic)
BBBYBig W      07/01/202207/27/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BERYPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Packaging and Container
BBYUgly double bottom      06/30/202207/26/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BIGPipe bottom      07/25/202208/01/2022Retail Store
BFHPipe top      07/18/202207/25/2022Information Services
CACIPipe top      07/25/202208/01/2022IT Services
CALPipe bottom      07/25/202208/01/2022Shoe
CHSPipe bottom      07/25/202208/01/2022Apparel
CHDDouble Top, Eve and Adam      07/13/202207/28/2022Household Products
CLNEFlag, high and tight      07/05/202208/11/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
CONNBig W      06/17/202207/01/2022Retail (Special Lines)
COPUgly double bottom      07/14/202208/05/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
COTYTriangle, symmetrical      06/28/202208/11/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
EBAYDiamond top      07/29/202208/11/2022Internet
ELVDiamond top      06/27/202208/10/2022Medical Services
EOGUgly double bottom      07/14/202208/05/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
EPAMTriangle, descending      06/22/202207/20/2022IT Services
EXCTriangle, descending      07/01/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (East)
FEScallop, ascending      07/01/202207/29/2022Electric Utility (East)
GPSScallop, ascending and inverted      07/13/202207/26/2022Apparel
IPGDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      07/26/202208/05/2022Advertising
NVTADead-cat bounce      08/11/202208/11/2022Medical Services
KFRCPipe top      07/25/202208/01/2022Human Resources
RAMPTriangle, symmetrical      06/27/202208/04/2022Computer Software and Svcs
MUgly double bottom      07/14/202207/27/2022Retail Store
MANTriple bottom      06/30/202207/26/2022Human Resources
MTRXHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      06/17/202208/05/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
METAPipe bottom      07/25/202208/01/2022E-Commerce
NFLXPennant      07/22/202208/05/2022Internet
OXMUgly double bottom      05/24/202206/16/2022Apparel
PANWRoof, inverted      06/27/202208/10/2022Computer Software and Svcs
PRUUgly double bottom      07/14/202208/03/2022Insurance (Life)
RJFDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/13/202207/14/2022Securities Brokerage
RGAThree Rising Valleys      03/08/202206/16/2022Insurance (Life)
NOWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/14/202207/26/2022IT Services
SLGNUgly double bottom      07/11/202208/05/2022Packaging and Container
SRDXPipe top      07/18/202207/25/2022Medical Supplies
TRVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      07/21/202207/28/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
VRTXThree Rising Valleys      05/11/202208/03/2022Biotechnology
WLKHead-and-shoulders complex bottom      06/23/202208/05/2022Chemical (Basic)
QTECTriangle, symmetrical      06/16/202207/18/2022Electronics

 

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Thursday 8/11/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.9% or 360.87 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 13 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.0% on 8 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.4% on 5 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 61.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 244/429 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red trendline connecting the valleys and let it go through price. It didn't fit well in the middle of the chart so I added the blue line. It doesn't start at the chart's low but it does connect more points than the red line. The blue line has a better fit and is more reliable.

The blue line shows that the index is resting on that line, finding support there (to the right of A).

The measure rule for trendlines, if you flip it upside down, says that the plunge below the trendline will cause an overshoot above it. That is, the height of AB added to the trendline will give you a target.

I don't know if this will work because it's the move above the trendline (Monday's peak) that should get reflected below it (which appears to have worked in this case), and not the inverse.

With price moving along the line, maybe we can say that it doesn't work.

Let's give it a few days to see if the uptrend continues.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 261 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AYI, ADBE, AMD, AFL, APD, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALL, AYX, AMZN, AEL, AXP, AIG, APH, ANIK, AON, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, ATO, AVNT, AVA, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BIO, BA, BKNG, BFH, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CENX, CRL, CHS, CSCO, CLF, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, GLW, CRH, CCK, CTS, CMI, DECK, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EL, RE, EXPD, FDS, FICO, FAST, FE, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FORM, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, THG, HIG, HP, HSY, HON, DHI, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LEN, L, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MLM, MAS, MTRX, MDC, META, MGEE, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MS, NFLX, NKE, JWN, OLN, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PYPL, PETS, PLXS, PRU, PEG, QCOM, RL, RJF, RLI, RHI, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, CRM, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SXI, SUM, TECH, TER, TXT, TKR, TOL, RIG, TRV, TREX, UGI, UPS, UNM, VFC, VMI, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WMB, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IHE, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,342.74    
 Monthly S1  11,598.77  1,256.03   
 Weekly S2  12,141.45  542.68   
 Monthly Pivot  12,167.48  26.03   
 Weekly S1  12,498.12  330.64   
 Weekly Pivot  12,617.16  119.03   
 Daily S2  12,642.12  24.96   
 Low  12,698.61  56.49   
 Daily S1  12,748.46  49.85   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,760.81  12.35   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,780.03  19.21   
 Open  12,793.44  13.42   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,799.24  5.80   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  12,804.95  5.71   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  12,854.80  49.85   
 High  12,861.44  6.64   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  12,911.29  49.85   
 Daily R2  12,967.78  56.49   
 Weekly R1  12,973.83  6.05   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  13,092.87  119.03   
 Monthly R1  13,423.51  330.64   
 Monthly R2  13,992.22  568.71   

Wednesday 8/10/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator is neutral as shown by the vertical white bars on the chart. Notice at the bottom of the chart that the thin blue indicator line is heading lower.

In fact, the prior peak is above the current one, suggesting a weakening situation. Having said that, any big up move or any big down move can change the signals for up to a week.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 58% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 59%.
The fewest was 19% on 08/11/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 453 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 26%.
The peak was 12% on 08/11/2021.
And the bottom was 33% on 06/16/2022.

The red and blue lines today (Tuesday night) have improved from what they signaled a week ago. That's good news.

Indeed, the recovery from the June low is substantial. You can see that in the red line by it hitting a low in June and rebounding.

Looking at the charts, I think the markets have put in a bottom, that they will move higher in the coming months. This assessment agrees with the 2022 forecast that I update each month. That forecast said the markets would hit the yearly low in late July and rebound from there. Maybe we're seeing that now. It's going to be bumpy with earnings season starting but I think the worst is behind us.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEP, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, ARW, ATO, BMI, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BIO, BOOT, BAH, CACI, CAL, CX, CHKP, CHS, CL, CMCO, COP, COTY, CCRN, XRAY, DVN, DOV, DTE, WIRE, RE, XOM, FDX, FE, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FDP, GPS, HIG, HAYN, HP, HOLX, HON, HUBG, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, IVC, NVTA, KMT, KFRC, KLAC, LZB, LRCX, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, LOW, M, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDC, META, MU, MLKN, NWL, JWN, NUS, PTEN, PETS, PFG, PG, RL, ROK, LUV, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPX, TXN, TKR, TSCO, UGI, VEEV, WAT, WSO, WERN, WMB, ZBRA, IYZ, SOXX, IEO, ECH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWP, THD, DBA, PHO, GLD, XLV, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/9/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 29.07 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1382 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 714 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 668 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 249/446 or 55.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/98 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Union: SUG stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, AYI, AEIS, AMD, ATSG, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AON, APOG, AWI, ARW, AVY, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BIG, BKNG, BFH, BBW, CACI, CAL, CX, CLNE, ED, CONN, COP, COTY, CROX, CCRN, CCK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJT, DUK, EMN, EFX, EXPD, FAST, FDX, FLEX, FCX, FDP, GME, GPS, IT, GIS, GGG, GES, HSC, HAYN, HSIC, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, INFN, TILE, JBLU, JNJ, KMT, KFRC, KMB, LH, LANC, LDOS, LEN, LMT, L, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MANH, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDT, MU, MLKN, NWL, NEE, NOC, OUT, PKG, PKE, PFE, PCG, DGX, RL, RLI, ROK, ROST, SAIC, SCCO, SWX, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPR, TFX, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TJX, TRV, TG, VFC, VEEV, VRTX, WAT, WSO, WLK, WSM, IYM, ICF, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EIS, EPP, EZA, EWP, THD, TUR, IBB, PHO, ILF, MXI, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT, UNG, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,154.73    
 Monthly S1  30,993.64  1,838.90   
 Monthly Pivot  31,982.83  989.20   
 Weekly S2  32,145.65  162.82   
 Weekly S1  32,489.10  343.44   
 Daily S2  32,563.01  73.91   
 Daily S1  32,697.77  134.77   
 Weekly Pivot  32,730.56  32.79   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 Low  32,769.10  38.54   
 Close  32,832.54  63.44   
 Open  32,877.36  44.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,899.31  21.95   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  32,903.87  4.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,939.53  35.66   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,979.75  40.22   
 Daily R1  33,038.63  58.88   
 Weekly R1  33,074.01  35.38   
 High  33,109.96  35.95   
 Daily R2  33,244.73  134.77   
 Weekly R2  33,315.47  70.75   
 Monthly R1  33,821.74  506.27   
 Monthly R2  34,810.93  989.20   

Monday 8/8/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily chart.

Peaks CD and EF are twin peak chart patterns called double tops.

At AB, we see a double bottom. All of these patterns confirm as valid when price closes either above the top or below the bottom of the patterns. The move after all of them was superb.

We measure performance by the height of the pattern and you can see that the move after the patterns far exceeded their height.

The two diamond-shaped patterns are, well, diamond tops. After the top, expect the index to drop. In this case, the left diamond didn't see price drop far (just to B).

Will the second diamond behave the same? Neither diamond is well-shaped and you might be hard pressed to defend the right diamond pattern as a diamond. Having said that, the move up from B to the diamond has been a strong push. I'd expect a pause before a resumption of the uptrend. We're seeing that pause now in the shape of the diamond. After it breaks out (the breakout direction can be either up or down), then we'll know if another strong up-move will appear.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 46.73 points.
Tuesday: Down 402.23 points.
Wednesday: Up 416.33 points.
Thursday: Down 85.68 points.
Friday: Up 76.65 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 41.66 points or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 266.86 points or 2.2%.
The S&P 500 index was up 14.9 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.2% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     10.6% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.
Nasdaq
     20.2% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     19.8% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.
S&P 500
     14.0% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     14.0% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,378  32,591  32,703  32,916  33,028 
Weekly  32,136  32,470  32,721  33,055  33,306 
Monthly  29,145  30,974  31,973  33,802  34,801 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,090  4,118  4,135  4,162  4,179 
Weekly  4,043  4,094  4,131  4,182  4,219 
Monthly  3,565  3,855  4,011  4,301  4,458 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,440  12,549  12,635  12,743  12,829 
Weekly  12,076  12,367  12,551  12,842  13,027 
Monthly  10,277  11,467  12,102  13,292  13,926 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, AMD, AES, AA, AYX, AIG, ARW, ADP, AVA, BMI, BALL, BSET, BBBY, BIG, BFH, CIEN, CLNE, CONN, CCK, CTS, DECK, DSGR, DOV, EMR, EOG, FICO, FISV, FIVN, GME, GNW, GS, GGG, HAYN, HQY, HNI, HON, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, ITW, JKHY, JNJ, KFRC, KSS, LAMR, LANC, LNC, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MLI, MUR, NFG, NWL, NOC, OMCL, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PAYX, PFE, KWR, DGX, RGA, RLI, ROST, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SXI, SRDX, TEVA, TKR, VFC, VMC, WLK, WOLF, ITA, IHE, DDM, IAT, IYF, IHI, EWS, IBB, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Natural Gas (Diversified)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Electric Utility (Central)4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Electric Utility (West)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Aerospace/Defense6. Precision Instrument
7. Food Processing7. Electric Utility (Central)
8. Electric Utility (East)8. Electric Utility (West)
9. Natural Gas (Distributor)9. Insurance (Diversified)
10. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Medical Supplies50. Chemical (Basic)
51. Shoe51. Investment Co. (Foreign)
52. Advertising52. Shoe
53. Investment Co. (Foreign)53. Retail (Special Lines)
54. Telecom. Equipment54. Diversified Co.
55. Apparel55. Computers and Peripherals
56. E-Commerce56. Homebuilding
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Apparel
58. Homebuilding58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Internet59. Internet
60. Computers and Peripherals60. E-Commerce

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 8/5/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 131 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AMD, APD, DOX, AMED, ACGL, ATO, BMI, BALL, BSET, BZH, BMRN, BKH, BFH, CALM, CHS, ED, CONN, CLR, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DHR, DVN, DOV, DTE, DUK, ELV, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FISV, FLS, FORM, FDP, FRD, GS, HAYN, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HON, HUBG, HURC, ITW, INFN, ITGR, IVC, JNJ, KBAL, LNC, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDT, MRK, MLI, NBR, NOV, NI, NOC, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PRFT, PCG, PPL, PRU, PEG, RLI, SLB, SO, SXI, SUM, SRDX, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMC, WERN, XEL, ITA, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWD, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, PXJ, IEV, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXDXFlag, high and tight      06/13/202208/04/2022Medical Services
AESHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202207/15/2022Electric Utility (East)
AKAMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/14/202207/14/2022E-Commerce
APAPipe bottom      07/05/202207/11/2022Petroleum (Producing)
BALLDead-cat bounce      08/04/202208/04/2022Packaging and Container
BIOHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202207/14/2022Medical Supplies
BMRNDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      07/20/202208/01/2022Biotechnology
CBTThree Rising Valleys      06/17/202207/14/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EDHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (East)
CRThree Rising Valleys      06/17/202207/14/2022Diversified Co.
CWPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Machinery
^DJUDiamond top      08/01/202208/04/2022None
EIXPipe bottom      06/21/202206/21/2022Electric Utility (West)
FDXHead-and-shoulders bottom      07/01/202207/26/2022Air Transport
FIVNHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/25/202207/13/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FTNTTriple top      07/12/202208/03/2022Computer Software and Svcs
GDDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      06/17/202207/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
HURCPipe top      07/18/202207/25/2022Machinery
INFNDead-cat bounce      08/03/202208/03/2022Telecom. Equipment
JAZZDouble Top, Adam and Adam      07/07/202207/28/2022Biotechnology
KFRCPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Human Resources
LLYHead-and-shoulders top      07/08/202207/28/2022Drug
MTSIHead-and-shoulders bottom      06/16/202207/13/2022Semiconductor
MGEEDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/16/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (Central)
MLKNPipe bottom      06/27/202207/05/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
NCRUgly double bottom      07/14/202207/26/2022IT Services
NJRPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
OUTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      06/16/202207/14/2022Advertising
OXMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/16/202207/14/2022Apparel
PPGPipe bottom      06/13/202206/21/2022Chemical (Diversified)
PPLUgly double bottom      06/17/202207/05/2022Electric Utility (East)
PRUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/17/202207/14/2022Insurance (Life)
RMBSDiamond bottom      06/17/202207/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RCKYDead-cat bounce      08/03/202208/03/2022Shoe
SNPSThree Rising Valleys      05/12/202207/14/2022Computer Software and Svcs
TPRTriangle, symmetrical      07/22/202208/04/2022Apparel
TERDiamond bottom      06/16/202207/13/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
UPSThree Rising Valleys      05/19/202207/14/2022Air Transport
WWWTriangle, symmetrical      03/29/202207/21/2022Shoe
WDAYDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      06/23/202207/13/2022Computer Software and Svcs
XELUgly double bottom      06/17/202207/21/2022Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 8/4/22. Cryptocurrency Update: Bitcoin BTC-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.6% or 319.4 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 30 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 18 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.5% on 12 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 60.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 243/428 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the bitcoin.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bottoms A and B highlight what I call an ugly double bottom. That's when the second bottom (B) is significantly above the first bottom (A). It confirms as a valid bottom reversal at C. That's when the coin closes above the top of the double bottom. The coin has struggle to move higher since C but it remains above the red confirmation line.

I drew two green lines showing the trend of the coin. Notice that it curves upward. That slope suggests strength, that the value of the coin will continue higher.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYX, AEP, AXP, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, AIZ, BMI, BALL, BAX, BFH, BG, CHS, CSCO, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CLR, CRH, CROX, CSGS, CTS, DSGR, D, DOV, DUK, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EVH, FAST, FIS, FISV, FIVN, FDP, FRD, GL, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, ITW, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, LDOS, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, NBR, NOV, NTGR, JWN, OXY, OLN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PPL, PRU, RNG, RLI, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SEE, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, UNM, VFC, VLO, VEEV, V, WAT, WMB, XEL, IEZ, IHF, IGE, IEO, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EZA, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,405.23    
 Weekly S2  11,316.37  911.15   
 Monthly S1  11,536.69  220.32   
 Monthly Pivot  11,981.48  444.78   
 Weekly S1  11,992.27  10.79   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  12,209.26  217.00   
 Daily S2  12,323.24  113.98   
 Low  12,425.21  101.97   
 Open  12,433.87  8.66   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  12,495.70  61.83   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,530.04  34.34   
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,562.42  32.38   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,594.81  32.38   
 Daily Pivot  12,597.67  2.86   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  12,668.16  70.49   
 High  12,699.64  31.48   
 Daily R1  12,770.13  70.49   
 Daily R2  12,872.10  101.97   
 Weekly R1  12,885.16  13.06   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  13,102.15  217.00   
 Monthly R1  13,112.94  10.79   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  13,557.73  444.78   

Wednesday 8/3/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I mentioned in the first pic of the updated forecast that the index looked as if it might retrace (according to the CPI line). We see that today.

The indicator turned bearish as demonstrated by the vertical red line on the far right of the chart. I don't expect this to be a reversal, just a retrace of a few days to a week or so duration. But, it's a bearish signal.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 59% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 64%.
The fewest was 19% on 08/11/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 453 stocks in my database are down an average of 26% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 28%.
The peak was 12% on 08/11/2021.
And the bottom was 33% on 06/16/2022.

Both lines show improvement from a week ago. But if the above CPI chart is correct, then look for market weakness.

As I mentioned, I expect the market to retrace here, but it could zoom higher on good news or slump on bad news. Which will happen?

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 114 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AYI, AFL, ATSG, ALB, ALKS, ALL, AMWD, ABC, ANIK, AIZ, AZTA, BKNG, BRC, BFH, CACI, CPB, CE, CLS, CNP, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CTS, DSGR, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EZPW, FDP, IT, EVRG, THG, HAYN, HP, HNI, HON, HURC, IDA, ITW, INCY, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPAR, ISRG, IVC, JBLU, K, KMT, LDOS, L, M, MNDT, MRO, MTRN, MTRX, MOS, MYGN, NFG, NJR, NWL, NUS, OXY, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PETS, PFE, POR, KWR, ROST, SAIC, SO, SR, SXI, SRDX, TFX, TKR, RIG, TG, VFC, WU, WLK, WMB, XEL, EWK, ECH, EWH, GLD, XHB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 8/2/22. 2022 Forecast Update

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -46.73 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1367 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 714 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 653 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 249/445 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/98 or 48.0% of the time.

$ $ $

Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 1 August 2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+42%)
2. Utilities (3%)
3. Consumer staples (-4%)
4. Health care (-6%)
5. Industrials (-10%)
6. Materials (-14%)
7. Financials (-14%)
8. Real estate (-15%)
9. Information technology (-17%)
11. Consumer discretionary (-20%)
10. Communication services (-28%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 8/1/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Utilities
10. Real estate
11. Materials

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 7/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+62%)
1. Construction and engineering (+55%)
3. Energy equipment and services (+27%)
New. Automobiles (+27%)
4. Health care providers and services (+22%)
6. Multi-utilities (+15%)
10. Food products (13%)
7. Beverages (+12%)
New. Technology hardware, and storage (11%)
New. Electric utilities (11%)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, APD, ALKS, DOX, AMWD, ANIK, BBBY, BIO, BMRN, BA, BAH, BRC, BLDR, CALM, CHKP, CTXS, CNA, CL, CSGS, CTS, DDS, ^DJT, DOV, DUK, EMR, WIRE, EVH, EZPW, FIS, FMC, FDP, GILD, THG, HAYN, HNI, HON, ITW, NSP, IBP, IVC, KBAL, KMB, LANC, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LMT, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDT, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEE, NUS, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PFE, POR, KWR, RGS, ROST, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SWX, SXI, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TGT, TECH, TEVA, TMO, TKR, VFC, WAT, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYK, SLV, EWJ, EWL, TUR, XLP, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 8/1/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index soared through a down-sloping trendline, shows here as a red straight line.

At AB, the index formed an ugly double bottom. It confirmed at C when the index closed above the peak between the two lows.

How high will the index climb? My guess is to the level of the circled area at D. The index has made a strong push higher and at D there's a knot of resistance. That combination suggests the index will hit that resistance and drop.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 90.75 points.
Tuesday: Down 228.5 points.
Wednesday: Up 436.05 points.
Thursday: Up 332.04 points.
Friday: Up 315.5 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 945.84 points or 3.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 556.58 points or 4.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 168.66 points or 4.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.1% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     10.8% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.
Nasdaq
     21.8% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     17.3% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.
S&P 500
     14.3% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     13.6% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,332  32,589  32,749  33,006  33,167 
Weekly  31,282  32,064  32,487  33,268  33,692 
Monthly  29,200  31,023  31,966  33,789  34,733 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,056  4,093  4,117  4,154  4,177 
Weekly  3,831  3,981  4,060  4,210  4,290 
Monthly  3,579  3,855  3,997  4,273  4,416 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  12,088  12,239  12,333  12,484  12,578 
Weekly  11,224  11,807  12,117  12,700  13,010 
Monthly  10,313  11,352  11,889  12,928  13,465 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, APD, AMZN, DOX, AEL, AMN, AON, AAPL, ARW, ADP, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BECN, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BAH, BBW, BLDR, CALM, CNC, CVX, CHS, CINF, CTXS, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, COP, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, DOV, DTE, DUK, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EVH, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, GNW, GILD, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HSY, HON, ITW, TILE, IPG, IVC, JAZZ, KLIC, LLY, MTSI, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, OGE, ORI, ASGN, PTEN, PRFT, PLXS, POR, PRU, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RNG, RLI, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEIC, SO, SXI, SUM, TECH, TMO, TKR, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VFC, VRTX, VMC, WAT, XEL, IYM, IYC, IYE, FXI, IGE, IYF, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWD, TUR, PJP, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLB, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Natural Gas (Diversified)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment4. Natural Gas (Distributor)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Short ETFs
6. Precision Instrument6. Electric Utility (Central)
7. Electric Utility (Central)7. Insurance (Diversified)
8. Electric Utility (West)8. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
9. Insurance (Diversified)9. Electric Utility (West)
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Food Processing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Investment Co. (Foreign)
51. Investment Co. (Foreign)51. Cement and Aggregates
52. Shoe52. Semiconductor
53. Retail (Special Lines)53. Homebuilding
54. Diversified Co.54. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
55. Computers and Peripherals55. Toiletries/Cosmetics
56. Homebuilding56. Diversified Co.
57. Apparel57. Computers and Peripherals
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. E-Commerce
59. Internet59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. E-Commerce60. Internet

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
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