As of 07/23/2024
  Indus: 40,358 -57.35 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,656 -244.42 -1.5%  
  Utils: 952 -5.51 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 17,997 -10.22 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,556 -8.67 -0.2%  
YTD
 +7.1%  
-1.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +19.9%  
 +16.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/12/2024  
  Up arrow41,500 or 40,000 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow16,500 or 15,600 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow1,000 or 910 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow19,200 or 17,800 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,500 by 08/01/2024
As of 07/23/2024
  Indus: 40,358 -57.35 -0.1%  
  Trans: 15,656 -244.42 -1.5%  
  Utils: 952 -5.51 -0.6%  
  Nasdaq: 17,997 -10.22 -0.1%  
  S&P 500: 5,556 -8.67 -0.2%  
YTD
 +7.1%  
-1.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +19.9%  
 +16.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 07/12/2024  
  Up arrow41,500 or 40,000 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow16,500 or 15,600 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow1,000 or 910 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow19,200 or 17,800 by 08/01/2024
  Up arrow5,750 or 5,500 by 08/01/2024

Bulkowski's November 2022 Forecast Update

Released 10/31/2022.

Forecast Updated for November 2022

Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on October 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

Circled on the CPI line is what's called a failure swing. It's a bearish signal, suggesting the market is going to retrace. However, there's a failure swing in late July and yet the index continued to rise. Sigh. Nothing is easy in this business.

The next chart looks at the 2022 forecast update for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The 2022 forecast is in red, taken back in January.

The forecast shows the red line going horizontal since August to year end. However, the index has been much more volatile. At AB, it forms a double bottom and that leads to a strong move upward from the B bottom.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.

The green line shows a horizontal line starting from where the index began on the left. Clearly, the index has trended lower. The forecast, by comparison, was relatively flat. In order for the index to climb back up to the forecast, we'd have to see a tremendous move up. It's possible, but not likely.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

The index bottomed at A and bounced to B. If at bottom C, the index were to bounce a similar amount, we'd see the index rise to about D. Timing is about 2 months, or mid-December is the deadline for the rise to D.

Next 2023 forecast.
5 / 5
2022 forecast chart

This is the forecast for 2023, using the daily scale.

The forecast struggles to move higher through the end of February. Then the index rises from about 32,500 to 39000. That's a rise of 20% for the year. Because the forecast is rarely accurate (but a few are), you will likely see a wide variation. Even so, it gives you an idea of what has happened historically for years ending in 3.

The end.

See Also

 
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