As of 12/26/2024
Indus: 43,326 +28.77 +0.1%
Trans: 16,104 +40.79 +0.3%
Utils: 992 -1.47 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 20,020 -10.77 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,038 -2.45 0.0%
|
YTD
+15.0%
+1.3%
+12.5%
+33.4%
+26.6%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/26/2024
Indus: 43,326 +28.77 +0.1%
Trans: 16,104 +40.79 +0.3%
Utils: 992 -1.47 -0.1%
Nasdaq: 20,020 -10.77 -0.1%
S&P 500: 6,038 -2.45 0.0%
|
YTD
+15.0%
+1.3%
+12.5%
+33.4%
+26.6%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Released 10/31/2022.
Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on October 31. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
Circled on the CPI line is what's called a failure swing. It's a bearish signal, suggesting the market is going to retrace. However, there's a failure swing in late July and yet the index continued to rise. Sigh. Nothing is easy in this business.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale. The 2022 forecast is in red, taken back in January.
The forecast shows the red line going horizontal since August to year end. However, the index has been much more volatile. At AB, it forms a double bottom and that leads to a strong move upward from the B bottom.
This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.
The green line shows a horizontal line starting from where the index began on the left. Clearly, the index has trended lower. The forecast, by comparison, was relatively flat. In order for the index to climb back up to the forecast, we'd have to see a tremendous move up. It's possible, but not likely.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
The index bottomed at A and bounced to B. If at bottom C, the index were to bounce a similar amount, we'd see the index rise to about D. Timing is about 2 months, or mid-December is the deadline for the rise to D.
This is the forecast for 2023, using the daily scale.
The forecast struggles to move higher through the end of February. Then the index rises from about 32,500 to 39000. That's a rise of 20% for the year. Because the forecast is rarely accurate (but a few are), you will likely see a wide variation. Even so, it gives you an idea of what has happened historically for years ending in 3.
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