Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 02/21/2024
  Indus: 38,612 +48.44 +0.1%  
  Trans: 15,582 +118.68 +0.8%  
  Utils: 854 +11.76 +1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,581 -49.91 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 4,982 +6.29 +0.1%  
YTD
 +2.4%  
-2.0%  
-3.1%  
 +3.8%  
 +4.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024
As of 02/21/2024
  Indus: 38,612 +48.44 +0.1%  
  Trans: 15,582 +118.68 +0.8%  
  Utils: 854 +11.76 +1.4%  
  Nasdaq: 15,581 -49.91 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 4,982 +6.29 +0.1%  
YTD
 +2.4%  
-2.0%  
-3.1%  
 +3.8%  
 +4.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 02/13/2024  
  Down arrow37,700 or 39,000 by 03/15/2024
  Up arrow16,400 or 15,400 by 03/01/2024
  Up arrow870 or 800 by 03/01/2024
  Down arrow15,000 or 16,400 by 03/15/2024
  Down arrow4,850 or 5,100 by 03/15/2024

December 2023 Headlines

Archives


Friday 12/29/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ADTN, AES, A, ALL, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMGN, BSET, BZH, BERY, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BLDR, CAL, COR, CNC, CENX, CNA, CNX, CMTL, CXW, COTY, CCRN, ^DJT, DTE, EXP, EMR, EFX, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FMC, GD, GFS, THG, HE, HNI, JBHT, HUN, HURC, IDA, IDXX, PODD, ITGR, INTC, IBKR, IPI, JBLU, KMT, KMB, LHX, LH, LDOS, LXU, M, MRO, MKTX, MTRX, MRK, META, MU, MLKN, MOS, NFG, NFLX, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PFE, PXD, PEG, RGS, RGA, RLI, ROK, SBH, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, STR, SKX, SNPS, TFX, TSCO, TRV, UPS, VECO, MDRX, WSO, ZBRA, IYM, IDU, DDM, IYH, IGV, IXC, MXI, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, TUR, ROBO, XLY, XLE, XLU, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXPCup with handle      07/19/202312/04/2023Financial Services
APAPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Petroleum (Producing)
ADMBroadening top      11/15/202312/04/2023Food Processing
CLFPennant      12/20/202312/28/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
CLXDiamond top      11/28/202312/28/2023Household Products
COPTriple bottom      11/16/202312/12/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
CXWPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Industrial Services
DRQPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
EFXCup with handle      07/17/202312/18/2023Information Services
FISVPennant      12/15/202312/27/2023IT Services
GFSHead-and-shoulders bottom      08/25/202312/06/2023Semiconductor
GOOGLTriangle, symmetrical      10/12/202312/19/2023Internet
NSPDiamond top      12/04/202312/27/2023Human Resources
KFRCTriangle, descending      12/01/202312/28/2023Human Resources
LHXHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/08/202310/27/2023Aerospace/Defense
MGYPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MTDRPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MURPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
NTAPTriangle, symmetrical      11/29/202312/26/2023Computers and Peripherals
NJRTriangle, symmetrical      12/12/202312/28/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
ORITriangle, descending      11/29/202312/27/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
OMIDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/06/202312/14/2023Medical Supplies
RGSFlag, high and tight      12/20/202312/28/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
ROKCup with handle      10/12/202312/15/2023Diversified Co.
SBHCup with handle      07/26/202312/14/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
SLBPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
STRPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
SWNPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
SCSFlag      12/21/202312/28/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
SNPSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      11/30/202312/13/2023Computer Software and Svcs
TFXCup with handle      07/24/202312/18/2023Diversified Co.
RIGPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
WDAYTriple bottom      09/28/202310/27/2023Computer Software and Svcs

 

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Thursday 12/28/23. Bitcoin: BTC-USD

The Nasdaq climbed by 0.2% or 24.61 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 715 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 415 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 300 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 58.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 267/476 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/157 or 47.1% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of btc-usd.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the cryptocurrency BTC-USD on the daily scale.

I read a headline that cryptocurrencies were back in vogue. Is that true?

The chart says, "Yes."

The red line shows momentum increasing when the trendline bends upward in an exponential rise. I don't know if that's true or not but the steep rise says it can't last much longer. Maybe that's why we see a symmetrical triangle forming in blue. That gives the rise a pause, a chance to catch its breath.

If the pattern breaks out upward (closes above the top blue trendline), then look for the upward move to resume. A downward breakout might be fake and you'll see the currency recover and shoot upward. Of course, a downward breakout could be real, too. That might send the coin back down to 38,000 or so (that's the level of the top of an ascending triangle, A, in mid November).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AFL, ALB, AXP, ANIK, AR, ARW, AGO, ATO, BSET, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, CNX, CGNX, CMTL, CXW, DSGR, ^DJT, EXP, EBAY, ELV, EFX, FIS, FIVN, FNV, HL, HSII, HNI, HUBG, HUN, NSP, INTC, IPI, INTU, KALU, KMT, LHX, LH, LLY, LXU, MHO, MRCY, META, MU, MLKN, NFG, NWL, NEE, OXY, OMCL, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PINC, DGX, RMBS, RGS, RLI, ROK, SBH, SAIC, SEE, SMTC, SNPS, TFX, TXN, UPS, VECO, WMT, WERN, ZBRA, IAI, IAT, IXC, MXI, SLV, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWS, EWY, EWT, TUR, PJP, XLE, UNG, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,731.56    
 Monthly S1  14,415.37  683.81   
 Weekly S2  14,688.59  273.22   
 Monthly Pivot  14,742.33  53.74   
 Weekly S1  14,893.88  151.55   
 Weekly Pivot  14,981.59  87.70   
 Daily S2  15,025.90  44.31   
 Low  15,051.67  25.77   
 Daily S1  15,062.54  10.87   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  15,075.51  12.97   
 50% Down from Intraday High  15,082.88  7.36   
 Daily Pivot  15,088.31  5.43   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  15,089.66  1.35   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  15,090.24  0.58   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  15,099.18  8.94   
 High  15,114.08  14.90   
 Daily R1  15,124.95  10.87   
 Daily R2  15,150.72  25.77   
 Weekly R1  15,186.88  36.16   
 Weekly R2  15,274.59  87.70   
 Monthly R1  15,426.14  151.55   
 Monthly R2  15,753.10  326.96   

Wednesday 12/27/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has a bullish reading of 91.1, which is near the top of the scale (100). Maybe the index is trying for a Fibonacci extension.

That's like the opposite of a retrace. My research says that Fib extensions are no more likely to be reached than any other number. So forget Fibs.

I'm still waiting for a retrace to begin. I thought one started about a week ago, but I was mistaken. So the uptrend will continue until it ends.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 25% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 27%.
The fewest was 25% on 12/26/2023.
And the most was 57% on 12/28/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 13% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 15%.
The peak was 13% on 12/26/2023.
And the bottom was 26% on 12/28/2022.

Both lines show improvement this week compared to last week.

I drew a horizontal green line not because it's Christmas, but because the color is different from the others used. Is shows the height of the prior peak compared to today's peak. We're currently a nubbin's worth above the line.

Both charts are bullish but be warned. A retrace is coming.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 95 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, A, ALRM, AYX, DOX, AXP, ANIK, AR, APA, ADSK, AXS, BA, BSX, BRC, BG, CENX, CNO, CMCO, GLW, CRH, CROX, CCK, DFS, EXP, EBAY, EFX, FIS, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, HAYN, HSIC, JBHT, IEX, INTC, NVTA, KFRC, KLAC, LHX, LEG, LMT, MGEE, MS, NFG, NTAP, NWL, NKE, NUS, OMCL, PCG, PINC, PFG, RHI, ROK, SAIA, SBH, SLB, SMG, SEE, SCI, STR, SMAR, LUV, SPSC, SXI, SSYS, SNPS, TFX, TER, TJX, RIG, TRV, TWLO, UIS, WSC, ZBRA, IEZ, QTEC, ILF, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWZ, EWM, EWD, EWT, TUR, IBB, PEJ, USO, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/26/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by 0.0% or -18.38 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1370 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 741 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 629 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 279/505 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Perficient: PRFT.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 168 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, APD, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AXP, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, AR, APA, ARCB, ARW, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BCPC, BAX, BIIB, BRC, BMY, CBT, CDNS, CE, CLS, COR, CENX, CDAY, CMTL, CONN, COP, CXW, CROX, CW, ^DJT, DRQ, DTE, EXP, EMN, EFX, EQT, EG, EZPW, FE, FIVN, FTNT, FNV, FDP, GNW, GOOGL, GES, HLIT, HAYN, HTLD, HP, ITW, INTC, NVTA, KALU, KFRC, LHX, LH, LRCX, LEG, LLY, LNC, MGY, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTDR, MTRX, MRK, META, MLKN, MS, MUR, NBR, NTAP, NJR, NUS, OXY, OR, PTEN, PCTY, PETS, PXD, PINC, QCOM, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROG, RES, R, SAIA, SBH, SAND, SLB, NOW, STR, SKYW, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TFX, TEVA, TXT, RIG, TZOO, UHAL, UGI, VECO, WMT, WPM, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IYH, IXC, MXI, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWC, EWJ, EWD, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, XLE, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLB, XAR, USO, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,911.76    
 Monthly S1  35,648.87  1,737.11   
 Monthly Pivot  36,645.08  996.21   
 Weekly S2  36,798.51  153.43   
 Weekly S1  37,092.24  293.73   
 Daily S2  37,130.82  38.58   
 Daily S1  37,258.39  127.58   
 Low  37,268.88  10.48   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  37,349.27  80.39   
 Weekly Pivot  37,366.77  17.50   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  37,370.36  3.59   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  37,385.97  15.61   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  37,396.46  10.49   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  37,401.70  5.24   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  37,433.05  31.35   
 Daily R1  37,524.04  90.99   
 High  37,534.52  10.48   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  37,660.50  125.98   
 Daily R2  37,662.10  1.60   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  37,935.03  272.93   
 Monthly R1  38,382.19  447.16   
 Monthly R2  39,378.40  996.21   

Friday 12/22/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, APD, AMN, APH, AR, APA, ARCB, AGO, ADP, BERY, CONN, COP, CXW, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EOG, EFX, EQT, XOM, FDX, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, FCX, GGG, GES, THG, HLIT, HAYN, HOV, HUBG, NVTA, KLAC, LHX, LH, MGY, MRO, MTDR, META, MGEE, MU, MLKN, MS, MUR, NBR, NOV, OXY, ON, OR, PKE, PETS, PXD, PLXS, PEG, RMBS, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROG, RES, SAIA, SBH, SLB, STR, SWN, TFX, TXN, TSCO, RIG, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FXI, IEV, MXI, ILF, SLV, IEO, EWA, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, PXJ, ROBO, XLE, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMNPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Human Resources
AONDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/13/202312/13/2023Insurance (Diversified)
CENXFlag, high and tight      10/27/202312/21/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
COPPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Petroleum (Integrated)
DVNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/06/202312/13/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
FANGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/06/202312/12/2023Petroleum (Producing)
DRQDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/07/202312/12/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
WIREThree Rising Valleys      07/26/202310/24/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
EXCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      11/03/202312/14/2023Electric Utility (East)
FISDiamond top      12/05/202312/21/2023Computer Software and Svcs
GEBroadening top      08/14/202311/20/2023Diversified Co.
GLDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/04/202312/12/2023Insurance (Life)
HLITPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Telecom. Equipment
HPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/06/202312/13/2023Petroleum (Producing)
HUMDouble Top, Eve and Eve      10/17/202311/27/2023Medical Services
MGYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      12/06/202312/12/2023Petroleum (Producing)
MTRXBroadening top, right-angled and descending      11/20/202312/19/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MGEETriple top      11/15/202312/14/2023Electric Utility (Central)
MLIRounding bottom      07/24/202312/15/2023Metal Fabricating
^IXICUgly double bottom      10/26/202312/04/2023None
OXYPipe bottom      12/04/202312/11/2023Petroleum (Producing)
ORThree Rising Valleys      10/03/202312/12/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
PKETriple top      11/15/202312/14/2023Chemical (Specialty)
PEGHead-and-shoulders top      11/03/202312/14/2023Electric Utility (East)
ROKRounding bottom      10/12/202312/15/2023Diversified Co.
ROGUgly double bottom      11/02/202312/13/2023Electronics
SAIAUgly double bottom      10/27/202311/30/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
TKRCup with handle      09/01/202312/14/2023Metal Fabricating
TGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/20/202312/04/2023Chemical (Specialty)
WRBDouble Top, Eve and Eve      12/04/202312/12/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WEXPipe bottom      10/23/202310/30/2023Information Services

 

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Thursday 12/21/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -1.5% or -225.28 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 121 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 60 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.2% on 61 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 50.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 267/476 or 56.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/156 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This was a surprise drop, at least to me. I wrote yesterday, "I still think a retrace is coming but rather than continue to claim the sky is falling, I'll wait for it to do so before getting cautious."

I believe we are seeing the start of the retrace but I won't know for sure until the index continues lower for a few days (which is my expectation).

As to the chart, trendline B shows that the index crashed through the red line. I drew another line, A. Line A hugs the index better in the later stage of the rise. At B, notice that the drop gets more choppy, like it's trying to recover. So we might see an up move at or near the open on Thursday.

I've been waiting for the market to crest before I sell two stocks with small losses. If others do the same, then yes, the index will continue lower, setting the stage for a significant, and overdue, retrace.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 175 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACIW, ADTN, A, ALRM, ALK, AEL, AR, AON, APA, ARCB, ASH, BKH, BKNG, BRKR, CAL, COR, CDAY, CHKP, CI, CNA, CMCO, CAG, CONN, COP, CXW, CSGS, CW, XRAY, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EQT, XOM, FIVN, FTNT, FNV, FCX, GNW, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, GES, HLIT, HAYN, HL, HELE, HP, HSIC, HOLX, HURC, IDXX, INCY, IPAR, ISRG, NVTA, IRM, JKHY, JAZZ, JNJ, KSS, LHX, LH, RAMP, LMT, LXU, MGY, MRO, MTDR, MTRX, MRK, META, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MS, MUR, NBR, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NVDA, OXY, OGE, OR, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PCG, PXD, PLXS, POR, PEG, DGX, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROG, RGLD, RES, SAIA, SBH, SLB, SIGI, SLGN, STR, SKYW, SMAR, SWN, SR, TECH, TFX, TXT, RIG, TG, SLCA, UIS, V, WPM, WWD, ZBRA, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, BOTZ, IXC, SLV, IEO, EWJ, TUR, PBE, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, XLE, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,272.61    
 Monthly S1  14,025.27  752.67   
 Weekly S2  14,121.66  96.39   
 Monthly Pivot  14,440.45  318.79   
 Weekly S1  14,449.80  9.35   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S2  14,581.51  131.71   
 Weekly Pivot  14,652.71  71.20   
 Daily S1  14,679.72  27.01   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Low  14,776.29  96.57   
 Close  14,777.94  1.65   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  14,874.51  96.57   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,888.22  13.71   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,922.79  34.57   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,957.36  34.57   
 Daily R1  14,972.72  15.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  14,973.36  0.64   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  14,980.85  7.49   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 High  15,069.29  88.44   
 Daily R2  15,167.51  98.22   
 Weekly R2  15,183.76  16.25   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly R1  15,193.11  9.35   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  15,608.29  415.17   

Wednesday 12/20/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

After taking a big tumble just days ago (you can see the V-shaped decline in the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart), the CPI has rebounded spectacularly!

It's bullish. There's only one hint of trouble and that is the index hitting the ceiling of 100 and falling. It can move sideways but it usually doesn't do that. It it happens, then it could mean the start of a big retrace.

One thing we know for sure is that the index is going to retrace. When it does, it'll be a buying opportunity if we can time it right.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 26% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 34%.
The fewest was 26% on 12/19/2023.
And the most was 57% on 12/28/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 14% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 16%.
The peak was 14% on 12/19/2023.
And the bottom was 26% on 12/28/2022.

Both lines show improvement with the red line making a new high today with 26% of the stocks I follow in bear market territory. The 26% is a low number and it's good news.

The prior chart is bullish and so is this one. I still think a retrace is coming but rather than continue to claim the sky is falling, I'll wait for it to do so before getting cautious. In the meantime, I'm enjoying the ride upward.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AMD, AES, ALK, ALB, DOX, AXP, AR, APA, ATR, ARCB, AGO, AXS, BECN, BOOT, BSX, BCO, BR, BG, CBT, CACI, CAL, CENX, CDAY, CNA, CAG, CONN, COP, CXW, CW, DECK, FANG, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EMR, EFX, EQT, EXPI, XOM, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FNV, FCX, GNW, GS, GGG, HLIT, HAYN, HTLD, HL, PODD, INTC, NVTA, JKHY, KBH, LHX, LH, MHO, MGY, MRO, MTDR, MTRX, META, MGEE, MS, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NFLX, NTAP, OXY, OR, PATK, PEN, PETS, PXD, RTX, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROST, RES, SAIA, SBH, SLB, SLGN, STR, SWN, SPSC, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXT, RIG, TRV, TG, VRTX, WEX, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, BOTZ, IEV, IXC, MXI, ILF, SLV, IEO, EWA, EWO, EWZ, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EPP, EWS, THD, TUR, EWU, PXJ, ROBO, XLE, XLF, USO, SMH, VHT, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/19/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.0% or 0.86 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1369 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 740 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 629 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 54.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 278/504 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring broadening formation, right angled and descending.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 148 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ALRM, ALK, AEE, AMN, ARW, AVNT, BAX, BERY, BIG, BFH, BCO, BR, CE, CNP, CF, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, CLF, CNX, ED, CXW, CCRN, CSGS, CTS, XRAY, DVN, FANG, ^DJU, DTE, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EOG, EFX, EL, EVRG, EXPI, XOM, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, GNW, GS, GPRO, GGG, HE, HAYN, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDXX, IIIN, TILE, IPI, KLAC, LHX, LH, LEG, LOW, MANH, MRO, MAS, MTDR, MRCY, META, MS, MUR, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NOVT, NUS, NTNX, OXY, OGE, OLN, OMCL, ORCL, OMI, OXM, PTEN, PETS, PXD, PRU, RL, RMBS, REGN, RHI, RCKY, RES, ^GSPC, SBH, SCHW, SEIC, SCCO, SXI, SSYS, TDOC, TFX, TREX, TWLO, VLO, VRSN, VRTX, VMC, WERN, ZBRA, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IDU, IXC, IGE, IEO, EWA, EWK, EIS, EWU, IBB, PXJ, SSO, ROBO, XLB, XRT, XLU, USO, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,144.69    
 Monthly S1  35,225.35  2,080.66   
 Weekly S2  35,845.19  619.84   
 Monthly Pivot  36,286.48  441.29   
 Weekly S1  36,575.61  289.13   
 Weekly Pivot  36,961.60  386.00   
 Daily S2  37,219.51  257.91   
 Daily S1  37,262.76  43.25   
 Low  37,284.85  22.09   
 Close  37,306.02  21.17   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  37,326.34  20.32   
 Daily Pivot  37,328.11  1.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  37,330.14  2.04   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  37,339.15  9.01   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  37,351.96  12.82   
 Daily R1  37,371.36  19.40   
 High  37,393.45  22.09   
 Daily R2  37,436.71  43.26   
 Weekly R1  37,692.02  255.31   
 Weekly R2  38,078.01  386.00   
 Monthly R1  38,367.14  289.13   
 Monthly R2  39,428.27  1,061.12   

Monday 12/18/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transport on the daily scale.

This is the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I drew a thin red line to show the transition from down to up. Then I added a channel, also in red, but using thicker lines (B).

Circled at A is what looks like a breakaway gap. It's too soon to tell if it's a breakaway or an exhaustion.

The CPI (chart pattern indicator) has made a dramatic drop to 30, bearish. It suggests the gap is an exhaustion and we'll see the markets tumble.

I think that's the right position, so be cautious here. Yes, I expect the markets to retrace their strong advance (the Dow industrials show the advance much better than the transports, starting from the October low). After such a big gain (from the FED meeting), after 7 to 10 days we'll see a retrace start. So next week should be an important turn.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 157.06 points.
Tuesday: Up 173.01 points.
Wednesday: Up 512.3 points.
Thursday: Up 158.11 points.
Friday: Up 56.81 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1057.29 points or 2.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 409.95 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 114.82 points or 2.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 37,347.60 on 12/15/2023.
     18.7% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 14,855.62 on 12/14/2023.
     44.3% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     0.4% down from the high of 4,738.57 on 12/14/2023.
     24.4% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  36,993  37,149  37,248  37,405  37,504 
Weekly  35,845  36,575  36,961  37,691  38,078 
Monthly  33,144  35,225  36,286  38,367  39,428 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,696  4,707  4,716  4,728  4,737 
Weekly  4,539  4,629  4,684  4,774  4,829 
Monthly  4,272  4,496  4,617  4,841  4,962 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,710  14,762  14,805  14,857  14,900 
Weekly  14,134  14,474  14,665  15,005  15,196 
Monthly  13,285  14,049  14,452  15,217  15,620 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 162 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABM, ACN, ADTN, AFL, ATSG, ALRM, ALGT, AIG, AMN, AON, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AXS, BIG, BIO, BFH, BCO, BRKR, CACI, CPB, CNC, CENX, CHS, CTAS, CNO, CNX, CL, ED, CXW, CCRN, CSGS, XRAY, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EL, EG, EXC, EXPI, EZPW, FIVN, FTNT, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GIS, GPRO, GGG, GES, THG, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HNI, JBHT, ILMN, ITGR, IPI, KMT, KFRC, LHX, LZB, LH, LEG, LLY, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, META, MLKN, MS, NWL, NKE, JWN, NOVT, NUS, NVDA, ORI, OMCL, OMI, OXM, PTEN, PETS, POR, PEG, DGX, RMBS, REGN, RGS, RHI, RCKY, ROG, RES, SBH, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SPLK, SXI, SRDX, TECH, TDOC, TEVA, TTD, TJX, TSCO, TDG, TZOO, TREX, UHAL, UGI, UIS, UNM, VRSN, V, VC, VMC, WWW, WWD, ZBRA, IYK, FTEC, BOTZ, IHF, IXN, ILF, EWA, EWZ, EWC, EWH, EWM, TUR, IBB, ROBO, XRT, XLK, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Homebuilding
2. Retail (Special Lines)2. Retail (Special Lines)
3. Furn/Home Furnishings3. Shoe
4. Building Materials4. Computer Software and Svcs
5. Internet5. Furn/Home Furnishings
6. Shoe6. IT Services
7. Apparel7. Internet
8. Semiconductor Cap Equip.8. E-Commerce
9. Insurance (Life)9. Insurance (Life)
10. IT Services10. Building Materials
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (East)50. Advertising
51. Household Products51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
53. Metal Fabricating53. Metal Fabricating
54. Chemical (Diversified)54. Healthcare Information
55. Healthcare Information55. Short ETFs
56. Electric Utility (West)56. Chemical (Diversified)
57. Short ETFs57. Electric Utility (West)
58. Toiletries/Cosmetics58. Medical Supplies
59. Food Processing59. Food Processing
60. Medical Supplies60. Toiletries/Cosmetics

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/15/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 374 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABM, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AFL, A, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALGT, AMZN, AEE, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, AON, APOG, ADM, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BERY, BIG, BFH, BCO, BRKR, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CPB, CE, CNC, CNP, CENX, CRL, CVX, CHS, CINF, CTAS, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, ED, CONN, CXW, GLW, CSGP, CROX, CTS, CMI, CW, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DSGR, ^DJT, DOV, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EME, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EL, EG, EVH, EXC, EXPI, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FARO, FDX, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FMC, FTNT, FTV, FNV, FCX, GIS, GNW, GFS, GMS, GS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, HE, HAYN, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HD, DHI, HOV, JBHT, HUN, IEX, ITW, ILMN, IBP, PODD, TILE, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KMT, KEYS, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, KLIC, LH, LAMR, LEN, LLY, LNC, L, LOW, LXU, MHO, MAN, MKTX, MRTN, MAS, MA, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MRCY, MU, MLKN, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NJR, NWL, JWN, NWPX, NOVT, NUS, ORI, OLN, ASGN, ON, OTEX, OR, OMI, OXM, PANW, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PAYX, PCTY, PEN, PFE, PXD, PPG, PPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, PHM, PSTG, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RGS, RHI, ROK, ROP, RGLD, SBH, SAND, SCHW, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, SCI, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SCCO, SWX, SPSC, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TDC, TER, TXN, TTD, TMO, TJX, TOL, TDG, TRV, TG, TREX, TWLO, UHAL, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VFC, VLO, MDRX, VRSN, V, VMC, WAT, WSO, WERN, WU, WLK, WEX, WPM, WSM, WSC, WWW, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, ITB, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IYZ, IEV, IXC, MXI, SOXX, SLV, IGE, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, EWU, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SMH, VIS, VAW. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag, high and tight      10/27/202312/14/2023Electronics
ALRMUgly double bottom      11/01/202311/30/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ALBBig W      11/13/202312/05/2023Chemical (Diversified)
AADouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      10/23/202312/12/2023Aerospace/Defense
AMATUgly double bottom      10/31/202311/17/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
ADMUgly double bottom      10/25/202311/28/2023Food Processing
ADSKPipe bottom      11/20/202311/27/2023Computer Software and Svcs
ADPUgly double bottom      11/01/202311/30/2023IT Services
AVATriangle, ascending      11/03/202312/12/2023Electric Utility (West)
BMIUgly double bottom      10/23/202311/21/2023Precision Instrument
BIGFlag, high and tight      11/10/202312/13/2023Retail Store
BIIBDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/13/202311/28/2023Biotechnology
CXTriangle, ascending      11/14/202312/12/2023Cement and Aggregates
CNPRectangle top      10/17/202311/27/2023Electric Utility (Central)
CTASThree Rising Valleys      09/27/202312/07/2023Industrial Services
CTSHUgly double bottom      11/02/202311/30/2023IT Services
CLDouble Top, Eve and Adam      12/04/202312/13/2023Household Products
CMTLDead-cat bounce      12/08/202312/13/2023Telecom. Equipment
CTSUgly double bottom      10/31/202311/09/2023Electronics
CWThree Rising Valleys      10/04/202311/29/2023Machinery
DSGRUgly double bottom      11/08/202311/29/2023Metal Fabricating
WIREPipe bottom      11/27/202312/04/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
EXPIPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023E-Commerce
EZPWTriple bottom      09/25/202311/28/2023Financial Services
FLEXHead-and-shoulders bottom      09/27/202312/05/2023Electronics
FLSUgly double bottom      10/25/202311/22/2023Machinery
FMCTriple bottom      10/23/202311/10/2023Chemical (Basic)
FTNTUgly double bottom      11/03/202312/07/2023Computer Software and Svcs
FCXUgly double bottom      11/10/202312/07/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
GMSRounding bottom      08/07/202312/13/2023Cement and Aggregates
GESBroadening top      10/17/202311/22/2023Apparel
HEUgly double bottom      11/10/202311/30/2023Electric Utility (West)
HUNUgly double bottom      11/01/202311/28/2023Chemical (Specialty)
INCYTriangle, ascending      10/31/202312/01/2023Drug
IPARTriple bottom      10/12/202311/29/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
IPIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/10/202312/13/2023Chemical (Diversified)
KLACThree Rising Valleys      09/27/202312/05/2023Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LANCTriangle, symmetrical      11/02/202312/12/2023Food Processing
MFlag, high and tight      10/13/202312/11/2023Retail Store
MAUgly double bottom      10/27/202312/05/2023Financial Services
MRCYPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Computers and Peripherals
NIThree Rising Valleys      10/03/202311/30/2023Electric Utility (Central)
NWPXDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      11/08/202311/28/2023Building Materials
OGEUgly double bottom      10/03/202310/23/2023Electric Utility (Central)
OXMPipe bottom      11/27/202312/04/2023Apparel
PTENTriangle, symmetrical      11/08/202312/04/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      11/14/202311/30/2023Household Products
PGRBroadening top      11/24/202312/13/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
RGSDead-cat bounce      12/14/202312/14/2023Toiletries/Cosmetics
SCCOPipe bottom      11/27/202312/04/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
SWXHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/06/202311/13/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
SXIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      11/07/202311/30/2023Diversified Co.
TXTTriple bottom      10/25/202311/29/2023Diversified Co.
TTDUgly double bottom      11/10/202312/04/2023Advertising
UNMTriangle, symmetrical      11/02/202312/08/2023Insurance (Diversified)
VECOScallop, ascending and inverted      10/31/202312/05/2023Precision Instrument
VEEVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/10/202312/07/2023Healthcare Information
MDRXTriple top      08/14/202310/11/2023Healthcare Information
VMCUgly double bottom      10/27/202311/20/2023Cement and Aggregates
XLKUgly double bottom      10/26/202312/04/2023IT Services
MGKUgly double bottom      10/26/202312/04/2023None
VONGUgly double bottom      10/26/202312/04/2023None

 

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Thursday 12/14/23. Cryptocurrency: Ethereum

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.4% or 200.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 125 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 72 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 53 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 266/475 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/156 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the ETH-USD.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the weekly scale.

I drew the horizontal line A from today's price backward in time to the left. I wanted to see where overhead resistance lined up with today. There are some valleys back in 2022 that may cause the cryptocurrency to pause here. It's a rather loose looking area, so maybe ETH can push through.

I drew two more lines, blue ones this time. It forms a rising wedge which usually breaks out downward. This wedge has four touches (not including today) when I five is best. Together, the red and blue lines suggest ETH will struggle to rise, but I don't think the two are additive. Meaning the red and blue lines of weak resistance won't add up to a concrete ceiling.

However, the rise from B has been strong, a straight-line run, and the coin is overdue for a retrace. My guess is we'll see it drop.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 186 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ABM, AYI, ADTN, AMD, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AEE, AXP, APOG, AAPL, ATR, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ATO, AVNT, AVA, AZTA, BALL, BBY, BIG, BKNG, BAH, BMY, BLDR, CBT, CAL, CLS, CX, CENX, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLF, CLX, CMCO, CXW, GLW, COST, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CMI, ^DJT, D, DOV, EXP, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EG, EXPI, EZPW, FDS, FDX, FIS, FE, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FTNT, GME, GNW, GMS, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HE, HSIC, HD, IDA, IEX, INFN, NSP, IPI, NVTA, KALU, KSS, LZB, LH, LAMR, LDOS, LNC, LMT, LPLA, MRTN, MAS, MTRN, MRK, MGEE, MYGN, NFG, NFLX, NJR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NWPX, NUS, NTNX, OGE, OXM, PKG, PKE, PCTY, PYPL, PFE, POR, PPG, PPL, PGR, RL, RJF, ROK, ROL, RGLD, SAIA, SAND, SEE, SRE, SCI, SMAR, SCCO, SPLK, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TPR, TDOC, TKR, TJX, TG, SLCA, UIS, UPS, VFC, VRTX, VMC, WAT, WPM, WSC, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IDU, QQQ, IYH, IAT, IYZ, IEV, EWA, EWQ, EWM, EPP, EZA, EWD, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, PEJ, XLV, XLB, XRT, VAW, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  13,210.49    
 Monthly S1  13,972.23  761.73   
 Weekly S2  14,044.73  72.51   
 Monthly Pivot  14,197.72  152.99   
 Weekly S1  14,389.35  191.62   
 Weekly Pivot  14,403.13  13.79   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  14,438.98  35.85   
 Low  14,517.52  78.54   
 Open  14,555.68  38.16   
 Daily S1  14,586.47  30.79   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,603.86  17.39   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,630.54  26.67   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,657.21  26.67   
 Daily Pivot  14,665.01  7.80   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  14,733.96  68.95   
 High  14,743.55  9.59   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  14,747.75  4.20   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Weekly R2  14,761.53  13.79   Yes! The Weekly R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R1  14,812.50  50.97   
 Daily R2  14,891.04  78.54   
 Monthly R1  14,959.46  68.42   
 Monthly R2  15,184.95  225.50   

Wednesday 12/13/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is at 61.3, which is neutral, hence the vertical white bar on the far right of the chart.

Notice that the thin blue line has turned lower and has been trending down for almost 2 weeks now. That's a sign of weakness.

My expectations for tomorrow is that the FED will leave rates alone, but the market will drop. Not far, but you never know. If the FED raises rate, then it'll be a big drop. If they hint of further raises next year, then expect a big drop. If they drop rates, then look for a big move up in the markets. Anything other than those scenarios and you'll probably see a minor drop (less than 100 points).

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 34% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 37%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 57% on 12/19/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 16% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 17%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 27% on 12/19/2022.

This chart is bullish. We'll have to wait to see what the FED does and how the markets react to it.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ALK, ALGT, APH, AVY, AVNT, BECN, BERY, BA, BCO, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CHS, CIEN, CI, CINF, CLF, CGNX, GLW, CCRN, CTS, DSGR, BOOM, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EPAM, EVRG, EZPW, FIS, FIVN, FMC, GME, GNW, GILD, GFS, GMS, HL, HSII, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HUN, IDA, INCY, INFN, IPI, ISRG, KELYA, LH, LNC, LMT, LPLA, MHO, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MTDR, MDC, META, MGEE, MLKN, MOS, MUR, NFG, NTAP, NI, NUS, NVDA, OR, OXM, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PNW, PLXS, PEG, QCOM, RL, RJF, ROK, SAIA, SAND, SEE, SRE, SCI, SKYW, SO, SCCO, SPLK, SCS, SSYS, TGT, TDOC, TEVA, TXN, TOL, TZOO, UIS, UPS, VMC, WRB, WLK, WPM, ITA, IYE, IHE, IHF, IYZ, IEV, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWM, EZA, EWL, THD, PXJ, ROBO, XLE, GLD, XLB. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/12/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.4% or 157.06 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1137 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 601 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 536 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 277/503 or 55.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Horn bottom.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, AES, ALKS, ALL, AMED, AEO, APH, ANIK, APOG, ADSK, AZTA, BZH, BIIB, BKNG, BSX, CBT, CALM, CE, CNP, CDAY, CINF, CSCO, CMTL, GLW, COST, CR, CRH, CTS, DSGR, ^DJU, DOV, DUK, BOOM, EMN, EZPW, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GME, GILD, GMS, GES, THG, HTLD, HNI, HD, HOV, HUBG, HUN, INCY, INFN, ITGR, IBKR, KSS, LH, LEN, LLY, LNC, L, M, MAN, MTRN, MDT, MU, MLKN, NEU, NEE, NKE, JWN, NUS, OMC, PANW, PTEN, PFE, QCOM, RL, RJF, REGN, ROK, RCKY, SMG, SRE, SCI, SWN, SR, SUM, TREX, UIS, VFC, VRTX, VMC, WMT, WSO, WERN, ITB, IDU, QTEC, IEV, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWQ, EWJ, EWT, TUR, GLD, XLU, UNG, SMH. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  33,083.87    
 Monthly S1  34,744.40  1,660.53   
 Monthly Pivot  35,520.30  775.90   
 Weekly S2  35,951.98  431.68   
 Daily S2  36,165.78  213.80   
 Weekly S1  36,178.45  12.68   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  36,231.19  52.74   
 Weekly Pivot  36,237.33  6.14   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Low.
 Open  36,254.33  17.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily S1  36,285.35  31.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  36,301.86  16.50   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  36,323.68  21.83   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  36,345.52  21.83   
 Daily Pivot  36,350.77  5.25   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  36,404.93  54.16   
 High  36,416.18  11.25   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Weekly R1  36,463.80  47.63   
 Daily R1  36,470.34  6.54   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  36,522.68  52.33   
 Daily R2  36,535.76  13.08   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  37,180.83  645.07   
 Monthly R2  37,956.73  775.90   

Monday 12/11/23. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

The most important feature of this chart is the red, up-sloping channel. I often cite the trendline nearest price as the one where price will bounce off it. In this case, the channel is too narrow to make a guess. Maybe that means price will continue rising.

AB is what I call an ugly double bottom. A double bottom has two bottoms at or near the same price. In the ugly version, the second (right) bottom is significantly higher than the left. When it confirms by closing above C, price climbs.

In this example, we see the index throwback to the breakout price. To me, this suggests that price will recover (move higher) in the coming days. Indeed, we see that happen with the rising channel.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 41.06 points.
Tuesday: Down 79.88 points.
Wednesday: Down 70.13 points.
Thursday: Up 62.95 points.
Friday: Up 130.49 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 2.37 points or 0.0%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 98.94 points or 0.7%.
The S&P 500 index was up 9.74 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     0.1% down from the high of 36,296.20 on 12/08/2023.
     15.3% up from the low of 31,429.82 on 03/15/2023.
Nasdaq
     0.3% down from the high of 14,446.55 on 07/19/2023.
     40.3% up from the low of 10,265.04 on 01/06/2023.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,609.23 on 12/08/2023.
     21.3% up from the low of 3,794.33 on 01/03/2023.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  35,967  36,108  36,202  36,342  36,436 
Weekly  35,900  36,074  36,185  36,359  36,470 
Monthly  33,032  34,640  35,468  37,076  37,904 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,561  4,583  4,596  4,618  4,631 
Weekly  4,524  4,564  4,587  4,627  4,649 
Monthly  4,254  4,429  4,519  4,694  4,784 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,210  14,307  14,362  14,459  14,514 
Weekly  13,935  14,169  14,293  14,528  14,652 
Monthly  13,100  13,752  14,088  14,739  15,075 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, ACN, AFL, ALB, ALKS, DOX, AEO, AMWD, AME, ANET, AWI, ADSK, AVNT, BALL, BZH, BKNG, CALM, CHKP, CIEN, CI, CLX, CNA, CMTL, GLW, CTS, CW, ^DJI, BOOM, EIX, EFX, EZPW, FFIV, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FTV, FDP, GME, GE, GIS, GMS, GES, HOV, HUN, IEX, INFN, IBKR, KMT, LHX, LZB, LH, LAMR, MTSI, M, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MCO, JWN, NWPX, ON, PRFT, PPG, PFG, PSTG, RJF, RTX, ROP, RES, SMG, SKYW, SMAR, SPSC, SCS, SRDX, TFX, UIS, VECO, MDRX, VRTX, WMT, WSO, WU, ZBRA, ITA, DDM, FXI, IHF, IEV, ILF, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWQ, EWM, THD, DBA, XLE, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Homebuilding1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Retail (Special Lines)2. Shoe
3. Shoe3. Apparel
4. Computer Software and Svcs4. Building Materials
5. Furn/Home Furnishings5. Furn/Home Furnishings
6. IT Services6. Homebuilding
7. Internet7. Computer Software and Svcs
8. E-Commerce8. Insurance (Life)
9. Insurance (Life)9. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
10. Building Materials10. IT Services
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Advertising50. Metal Fabricating
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Electric Utility (East)
52. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment52. Advertising
53. Metal Fabricating53. Household Products
54. Healthcare Information54. Chemical (Diversified)
55. Short ETFs55. Healthcare Information
56. Chemical (Diversified)56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Electric Utility (West)57. Medical Supplies
58. Medical Supplies58. Toiletries/Cosmetics
59. Food Processing59. Food Processing
60. Toiletries/Cosmetics60. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 12/8/23. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 98 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACIW, AMD, AES, ALKS, AEE, AEO, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, AIZ, ADSK, AXS, BSET, BZH, BKNG, BFH, CALM, CIEN, CSCO, CGNX, CMCO, COP, GLW, COTY, DECK, FANG, BOOM, ELV, EMR, EL, XOM, FIS, FIVN, FRD, GME, GILD, GMS, GES, HIG, HOV, HWM, IPG, JBLU, KEYS, LHX, LZB, LH, LRCX, M, MANH, MTRN, NTAP, NJR, NUS, ON, OMI, PTEN, PRU, RL, RRC, RTX, RCKY, SRE, SMTC, SCI, LUV, SWN, SPSC, SXI, SUM, TPR, TGT, TFX, TDC, TXT, TKR, RIG, TRV, TREX, UHAL, UIS, WMT, WMB, WOLF, XEL, IXC, MXI, IEO, EWT, TUR, XRT, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMUgly double bottom      10/23/202311/21/2023Diversified Co.
ABTTriangle, symmetrical      10/10/202311/10/2023Medical Supplies
AAUgly double bottom      10/23/202311/10/2023Aerospace/Defense
ALKSHorn bottom      11/13/202311/27/2023Drug
ALGTPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Air Transport
AEOPipe bottom      11/20/202311/27/2023Apparel
AMWDUgly double bottom      10/27/202311/30/2023Building Materials
AAPLUgly double bottom      10/26/202312/04/2023Computers and Peripherals
ACGLHead-and-shoulders top      10/18/202311/27/2023Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BAXDiamond top      11/28/202312/07/2023Medical Supplies
BBYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/10/202311/21/2023Retail (Special Lines)
BIGUgly double bottom      11/10/202311/21/2023Retail Store
BKNGUgly double bottom      10/26/202311/30/2023Internet
BOOTPipe bottom      10/23/202310/30/2023Shoe
BFHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      11/01/202311/16/2023Information Services
BGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/12/202310/24/2023Food Processing
CALMPipe bottom      11/20/202311/27/2023Food Processing
CPBHead-and-shoulders top      10/26/202311/17/2023Food Processing
CMCOUgly double bottom      10/31/202311/22/2023Machinery
CRHUgly double bottom      10/27/202311/20/2023Cement and Aggregates
EMRUgly double bottom      11/07/202311/28/2023Computers and Peripherals
EXPDUgly double bottom      11/07/202311/27/2023Air Transport
FTVUgly double bottom      10/25/202311/27/2023Industrial Services
FCXTriple bottom      10/23/202311/10/2023Metals and Mining (Div.)
GMEHorn bottom      11/13/202311/27/2023Retail (Special Lines)
GPNPipe bottom      10/23/202310/30/2023Computer Software and Svcs
HTLDUgly double bottom      11/01/202311/21/2023Trucking/Transp. Leasing
HSICUgly double bottom      11/02/202311/30/2023Medical Supplies
HOVFlag, high and tight      10/27/202312/07/2023Homebuilding
IPIPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Chemical (Diversified)
JNJDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      10/27/202311/10/2023Medical Supplies
LEGTriple bottom      11/01/202311/28/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
MGYTriple top      09/06/202310/17/2023Petroleum (Producing)
NFGTriangle, descending      11/03/202312/07/2023Natural Gas (Diversified)
NOVTriangle, descending      10/18/202312/07/2023Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NJRTriangle, symmetrical      10/18/202311/30/2023Natural Gas (Distributor)
JWNPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Retail Store
NOVTPipe bottom      11/06/202311/13/2023Precision Instrument
OMCLUgly double bottom      11/06/202311/21/2023Healthcare Information
OUTBroadening top      11/15/202312/06/2023Advertising
PKGUgly double bottom      10/23/202311/13/2023Packaging and Container
PYPLUgly double bottom      10/27/202311/21/2023Financial Services
RRCPipe top      10/30/202311/06/2023Petroleum (Producing)
SCHWUgly double bottom      10/25/202311/10/2023Securities Brokerage
SEICUgly double bottom      10/26/202311/28/2023IT Services
SCIUgly double bottom      11/01/202311/10/2023Industrial Services
SLGNHead-and-shoulders bottom      10/13/202311/13/2023Packaging and Container
SSYSBig W      11/01/202311/17/2023Electronics
TPXUgly double bottom      11/10/202311/28/2023Furn/Home Furnishings
TEVAUgly double bottom      10/23/202311/10/2023Drug
VECOPipe top      11/20/202311/27/2023Precision Instrument
WLKUgly double bottom      10/25/202311/28/2023Chemical (Basic)
WSCUgly double bottom      11/02/202311/27/2023Industrial Services
WWDUgly double bottom      10/27/202311/17/2023Precision Instrument

 

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Thursday 12/7/23. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.6% or -83.2 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 343 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.2% on 157 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 186 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 54.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 266/475 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 74/155 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I looked at the peaks and drew a blue line, which marks overhead resistance. The index can blow threw it, of course, or it can bounce off it and head lower like you see in the past.

Underlying support appears in green. I connected common valleys and sliced through the dip on Monday. Notice how the current price touches the green support line. That suggests the index will bounce higher tomorrow (Thursday). That's what I think will happen. Price might race to the top of the red channel (or it could continued to drop below the green support line).

It's interesting that price spiked above the blue line on Wednesday and below the green line on Monday.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, ADBE, AMD, AES, AFL, AKAM, ALRM, AA, ALKS, AYX, AEO, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, ACGL, ANET, ADSK, AXS, BZH, BMRN, BOOT, BFH, CBT, CDNS, CALM, CPB, CLS, CI, CSCO, CNX, CGNX, CL, CAG, CONN, COP, COST, CR, FANG, DFS, DSGR, ELV, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FTNT, FCX, GME, GIS, GMS, GES, HIG, HD, HON, DHI, INFN, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, JKHY, KBH, K, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LEG, LEN, RAMP, LMT, LOW, LPLA, MTSI, M, MANH, MAS, MTDR, MTRN, MU, NOV, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NKE, NWPX, ON, OTEX, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, PG, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, REGN, ROG, RGLD, ^GSPC, CRM, SEE, SHW, STR, SKX, SKYW, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SPSC, SRDX, TDC, TXN, TOL, RIG, TRV, SLCA, UIS, WEX, XEL, IYM, ITB, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IEV, IGV, IXC, SOXX, IEO, EWO, EWK, EIS, EWI, EWY, EWD, PXJ, SSO, XHB, XLB, SPY, USO, SMH, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,900.85    
 Monthly S1  13,023.78  1,122.93   
 Monthly Pivot  13,723.50  699.72   
 Weekly S2  13,936.16  212.66   
 Daily S2  14,015.16  79.01   
 Weekly S1  14,041.43  26.27   
 Daily S1  14,080.94  39.50   
 Low  14,138.51  57.57   
 Close  14,146.71  8.20   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  14,204.28  57.57   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,210.75  6.47   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Weekly Pivot  14,232.33  21.57   
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,233.07  0.74   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,255.39  22.32   
 Daily R1  14,270.06  14.67   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  14,325.62  55.56   
 High  14,327.63  2.01   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  14,337.60  9.97   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  14,393.40  55.80   
 Weekly R2  14,528.50  135.09   
 Monthly R1  14,846.43  317.93   
 Monthly R2  15,546.15  699.72   

Wednesday 12/6/23. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bearish, suggesting the index is going to retrace a portion of its gains. I've been expecting this for a few weeks now.

Keep in mind that if the index were to make a big move higher, the bearish signal could disappear. The signal can change for up to a week.

Perhaps the markets are waiting for the FED to meet next week (Dec 12-13). Markets expect no increase in rates, but if they do raise rates, then look out below. If they don't raise rates, the markets could still drop, especially if the FED hints of another rate rise next year.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 37% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 38%.
The fewest was 26% on 07/31/2023.
And the most was 57% on 12/19/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 518 stocks in my database are down an average of 17% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 19%.
The peak was 14% on 07/31/2023.
And the bottom was 27% on 12/19/2022.

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from a week ago. Notice how the index has made a new high (on the chart) but the red and blue lines have not risen above the top of the July peak.

It's not divergence but it's weird. It makes me wonder if the market breath is as wide as one might expect.

The prior chart is bearish and this one is bullish but it's a weak bull. I think the downtrend will continue.

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I released version 8.0.0.4 of Patternz today. It has more bug fixes.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, ALKS, AMED, AEE, AEO, AEP, AME, APA, AAPL, ARCB, ACGL, ADSK, AVA, BALL, BZH, BKNG, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CPB, CHS, CI, CINF, CNX, CL, CMCO, COP, CR, CTS, DVN, FANG, DSGR, DTE, BOOM, EME, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FIVN, FLEX, FWRD, FNV, FDP, GME, GFS, GES, HSII, HSIC, HURC, NSP, ITGR, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LH, M, MCHX, MKTX, MRTN, MTDR, MTRN, MTRX, NBR, NFG, NOV, NEE, NKE, NOC, NWPX, OXY, ASGN, OR, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PLXS, PPL, PG, DGX, RRC, RHI, ROG, RES, SIGI, SRE, SHOP, SLGN, STR, SO, SWN, SPLK, TDY, TEVA, TJX, TG, SLCA, VECO, XEL, FTEC, FXI, SLV, EWK, EWH, EIS, PXJ, XLK, XLU, USO, MGK, VONG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 12/5/23. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -41.06 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1383 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 721 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 662 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 277/502 or 55.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 52/110 or 47.3% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring broadening tops.

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Here's a symbol list of 106 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ALRM, ALKS, ALGT, ACGL, AWI, ATO, AVA, BCPC, BALL, BIG, BIIB, BOOT, BAH, BSX, BFH, BLDR, CALM, CHKP, CINF, CL, CAG, GLW, CMI, WIRE, EXPD, EZPW, FAST, FDX, FIS, FIVN, FNV, FDP, GFS, GOOGL, HIG, HE, HAYN, HON, HUN, IDXX, INCY, INTC, IBKR, NVTA, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, KMB, KSS, LH, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, L, M, MCHX, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MLI, NFLX, NJR, NKE, NI, NWPX, NUS, NVDA, OXY, OMCL, ASGN, PCTY, PETS, PLXS, PPL, PRU, QCOM, DGX, RRC, ROK, SAIC, SWX, TFX, TEVA, TG, UIS, VECO, VRTX, WEX, XEL, IHE, FXI, IXC, EWH, EWP, TUR, XHB, UNG. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2023 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,994.51    
 Monthly S1  33,599.48  2,604.96   
 Monthly Pivot  34,932.16  1,332.69   
 Weekly S2  34,932.34  0.18   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Weekly S1  35,568.39  636.05   
 Weekly Pivot  35,916.62  348.23   
 Daily S2  35,948.95  32.32   
 Low  36,029.69  80.75   
 Daily S1  36,076.70  47.00   
 Open  36,089.38  12.68   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  36,109.33  19.95   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  36,133.93  24.60   
 Daily Pivot  36,157.44  23.50   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  36,158.54  1.10   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  36,204.44  45.91   
 High  36,238.18  33.74   
 Daily R1  36,285.18  47.00   
 Daily R2  36,365.93  80.74   
 Weekly R1  36,552.67  186.75   
 Weekly R2  36,900.90  348.23   
 Monthly R1  37,537.13  636.23   
 Monthly R2  38,869.81  1,332.69   

Friday 12/1/23. 2023 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2023 forecast, presented in slider format.

The November forecast sent you to the October one. Oops. Here's the corrected link: November 2023 forecast

$ $ $

I'll be releasing another version of Patternz (8.0.0.4) soon to correct a few bugs.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ALRM, AMZN, APH, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, BALL, BIG, BA, BKNG, BMY, BBW, CDNS, CAL, CHD, CNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, CXW, CSGS, CTS, CW, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, DTE, EPAM, EG, EXC, EXPD, FICO, FARO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FTNT, GME, GNW, GMS, GOOGL, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HP, INFN, IBP, JKHY, KBH, K, KEYS, KMB, KSS, LZB, M, MANH, MKTX, MRTN, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MGEE, MCO, NFLX, NTNX, OXY, OMI, PDCO, PEN, PETS, PLXS, PG, QTWO, QCOM, RMBS, RRC, RGS, RLI, ROK, RES, CRM, SMG, SIGI, SHW, STR, SWX, SWN, SXI, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TKR, TZOO, TG, TWLO, VC, WMT, WU, WPM, WMB, WWD, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IXC, EWK, EWH, EWW, THD, TUR, DBA, PBE, PJP, USO. Click this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
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