As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%	Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%
Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

Friday 1/29/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AMD, AFL, APD, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AEE, AFG, AMWD, APH, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ATO, AVY, AVA, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BBBY, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BMY, BBW, CACI, CRL, CHS, CINF, CLX, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, CSOD, GLW, CROX, CSGS, CMI, CW, DVN, DFS, DOV, EMN, EIGI, EQT, RE, EXPD, FB, FDS, FDX, FEYE, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GME, IT, GD, GNW, GL, GS, EVRG, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HE, HQY, HL, HSII, HNI, HOV, INCY, IVC, KELYA, LB, LHX, LRCX, LANC, LDOS, MTSI, M, MRO, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDCA, MLI, NBR, NFG, NOV, NJR, NEU, NXGN, ASGN, OXM, PKE, PETS, PFE, PINC, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, REV, ROG, SAIA, SEIC, SMTC, SKX, SWN, TPR, TFX, TER, TXN, TG, UGI, UPS, VMI, V, WERN, XLNX, IYM, IEO, DDM, FXL, IAT, SOXX, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWM, EZA, EWP, EWL, THD, TUR, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLF, XHB, XLB, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 22 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 3.8%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 1/28/21. Intraday: Gamestop, FOMC, Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

Gamestop stock [GME] climbed from about 40 two weeks ago to close today (Wednesday) at almost 350, with an intraday high of 380.

"In the latest skirmish in a week-long battle between Wall Street and Main Street, funds sold long positions in stocks to pay for losses shorting Gamestop, contributing to a slide of more than 2% in Wall Street's main indexes." -- Reuters. A Yahoo reporter says the Federal Reserve was to blame. "Stocks sank Wednesday as investors digested the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) January monetary policy decision and latest batch of corporate earnings results."

Today's drop was probably a mixture of both and some other ingredients thrown in. Let's look at the Nasdaq chart, which I show on the 5-minute scale.

The composite broke though the red trendline late in Tuesday's session. I don't know if that was an actionable event because it really depends on where you start drawing the trendline.

Today, Wednesday, the composite made a double top at AB, confirmed at C when the index closed below the lowest valley between AB. The index continued lower but near the close, it started to recover.

My bet is the composite will rebound tomorrow. It will probably make a lower low near the open, but close higher. That assessment agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 250 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, APD, ALK, ALB, AA, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANTM, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BIO, BA, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CACI, CE, CX, CNC, CNP, CF, CHS, CINF, CSCO, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CTSH, ED, CONN, CLR, CSOD, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EXP, EMN, EMR, WIRE, EQT, EL, RE, EVH, EZPW, FB, FFG, FDX, FISV, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, IT, GIS, GPN, GL, GS, GFF, GES, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, HON, DHI, JBHT, IDXX, ITW, INCY, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPI, IVC, K, KSS, LB, LZB, LDOS, LNC, MHO, M, MRO, MLM, MA, MDT, MRK, MS, MLI, MUR, NOV, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NEU, NKE, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PAYX, PETS, PICO, PLXS, PPG, PFG, PRU, PEG, RL, RJF, REV, RNG, RHI, ROK, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SEE, SEIC, SKX, SWN, SR, STMP, SUM, TKR, RIG, UGI, VMI, V, VC, VMC, WSO, WLK, WEX, ITA, IYM, IAI, ITB, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, EWH, EWI, EWW, EWY, EWP, EWT, TUR, EWU, IBB, PPA, ROBO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLI, XLB, XRT, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/27/21. Indicator's Bearish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish divergence that I've been writing about for weeks/months now, might be happening. Might be.

The chart shows the CPI line trending lower and the index trending higher. In fact, the CPI turned bearish, issuing a signal yesterday (Monday).

I also felt that stocks were feeling "sloppy," as if they were about to tumble. Earnings season is coming (or here), so that's a worry and one which might tip the market downward. Have that cash ready for a buying opportunity.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both the red and blue lines have slipped this week compared to a week ago. That's bearish, too.

So we have both charts turning bearish, at least for the moment. Of course, a big move up would remove the frown from the charts and return a smile. A downward move would entrench them.

I think this is more of a hint of what's to come when earnings announcements appear rather than the top of the market. It's also possible that earnings will be better than expected, pushing the market higher. As always, we'll have to see what the future brings.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 209 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ALKS, ALL, AYX, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, APH, ANTM, AMAT, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ARW, AGO, ATO, AXS, BCPC, BAX, BBBY, BERY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BRC, BRKS, COG, CAL, CPB, CF, CHKP, CVX, CINF, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CMTL, COP, CSOD, GLW, CRH, CROX, DHR, DVN, DDS, DFS, DOV, EXP, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, FAST, FFG, FDX, FOE, FE, FWRD, GME, IT, GD, GL, GS, GFF, GES, THG, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HSII, HP, HNI, HOLX, HD, HON, DHI, HUBG, INCY, IIIN, INTC, IVC, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, LHX, LZB, LH, LAMR, LAWS, LDOS, LLY, LNC, MHO, M, MRO, MRTN, MTRN, MDCA, MRK, MSFT, MYGN, NFG, CNR, NJR, NEU, NKE, OXY, ASGN, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKG, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PCG, PPG, PFG, PG, PGR, PRU, RL, RGS, RGA, RHI, ROG, SAIA, SLB, SAIC, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SWX, SWN, SR, SUM, SRDX, TECH, TPX, TDC, RIG, TRV, TG, SLCA, UGI, VLO, VMI, WRB, WMB, WWW, IYE, ITB, IEO, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWC, EWM, EWT, IBB, DBA, PBE, PHO, ROBO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/26/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Pfizer (PFE), an actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 147 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AXDX, AA, AYX, AEE, AEO, AIG, ANIK, ACGL, BCPC, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BA, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, BG, CACI, CPB, CNC, CNP, CHKP, CHS, CLNE, CLX, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CREE, CRH, DVN, DDS, DFS, DTE, EBAY, EPAM, EQT, RE, EXC, EZPW, FFG, FEYE, FISV, FIVN, FMC, GME, IT, GES, HBI, HL, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, INCY, INFN, IBKR, IPG, INTU, NVTA, KFRC, LB, LH, LEN, LLY, MHO, M, MDC, MUR, NOV, NKE, NOC, OUT, OMI, PANW, PDCO, PAYX, PETS, PCG, PHM, REV, RCKY, SLB, SAIC, SRE, NOW, SLGN, SO, SWX, STMP, TECH, TDOC, TPX, TKR, TZOO, TG, VEEV, V, WLK, ZBRA, IGE, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWQ, EWI, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWP, EWU, IEV, ILF, XLF, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/25/21. Market Monday: Bullish Stealth

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

There's not a lot going on in this chart. At A, we see a rising wedge. That chart pattern has price following two up-sloping and converging trendlines.

Usually they breakout downward (60% of the time). In this example, that happened at A. Price climbed back into the chart pattern, plunged downward again, and finally made its way up to B, busting the downward breakout.

Do you know the name of the chart pattern at B? I don't know either. It's just a pause as price moves higher.

The reluctance of price to make a new high suggests weakness (see 2B pattern) but it could also hint of the bulls gathering strength for another push higher.

Given that the chart pattern indicator still shows bearish divergence, the reluctance of the average to forcefully push to a new high is a sign of weakness.

However, that downward spike in the middle of B is bullish. So it's hard to read the tape to discover the next impending move until after it happens, and by then, it might be too late.

Wish I could be more helpful...

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AES, AA, AEP, AFG, APH, ANIK, ACGL, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BSET, BBBY, BAH, BLDR, BG, CACI, CX, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CINF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CONN, CLR, CRH, CCK, DECK, BOOM, EIX, EIGI, EPAM, EL, RE, FOE, FIVN, FMC, FRD, GME, IT, GPN, GL, GPRO, THG, HAYN, HELE, HON, DHI, HOV, IEX, INFN, INTU, JAZZ, KMT, LB, LDOS, LEN, LLY, MHO, MDC, MLHR, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NEU, NEE, NOC, OMCL, OUT, OMI, PANW, PATK, PAYX, PYPL, PCG, PPG, PG, PGR, PHM, RL, ROK, SAIA, SLB, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, STMP, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TDOC, TXT, TG, TREX, WERN, WLK, WSM, XLNX, IAI, IYK, IEZ, IAT, IYZ, IYF, EWZ, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWP, THD, PHO, ILF, MXI, XLF, XLB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/22/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, ADTN, AES, ALB, AA, AMZN, AFG, AMN, APH, APOG, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BERY, BIO, BMRN, BOOT, BLDR, BG, CACI, CALM, CAL, CX, CNC, CNP, CHKP, CINF, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CL, CONN, CTS, DECK, DVN, DDS, EXP, EIX, EIGI, EOG, EPAM, RE, FDX, FOE, FMC, FTNT, FCX, FDP, IT, GPN, GPRO, THG, HAYN, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, ILMN, INCY, INFN, NSP, IIIN, IPI, INTU, KBH, KELYA, LHX, LEN, MHO, MTRN, MDC, MYGN, NOV, NEE, NOC, OXY, ORI, OUT, OMI, PANW, PATK, PYPL, PLXS, PGR, PHM, RGS, RNG, RHI, ROK, ROG, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, STMP, SXI, SSYS, TOL, TRV, UGI, WLK, WEX, WSM, XLNX, IYK, ITB, IDU, IGE, IYF, EWM, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, PBE, IXN, MXI, XLY, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 10 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 17 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 1/21/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I don't have a lot to say about the Nasdaq today. It was following a horizontal lines which formed a rectangle top. I show that as two horizontal red lines (A).

That rectangle morphed into a channel. Those are the two parallel but up-sloping red lines (B).

The channel shows price hitting the top of the channel and turning lower. If I had drawn the lower trendline better (closer), it might see the index touching it today (Wednesday). That suggests the index will bounce off the bottom trendline and head for the top of the channel.

It could break though the lower channel line or it could bounce upward. The above probabilities suggest the index will close higher.

$ $ $

I released a new chart pattern today called a pothole. It's essentially the daily (scale) version of a diving board pattern. For performance it ranks 4th out of 40 patterns, where a rank of 1 is best, but it's rare.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 140 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AA, AYX, DOX, ACGL, ARW, BMI, BCPC, BZH, BMRN, BOOT, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CNC, CNP, CINF, CLF, CNA, CL, CREE, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, EIX, EOG, EPAM, RE, EZPW, FFG, FIVN, FMC, FCX, IT, THG, HTLD, HELE, DHI, HOV, HURC, IEX, INFN, NSP, IBKR, TILE, INTU, K, KMT, KLAC, LHX, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MCHX, MTRN, MDC, MLHR, MLI, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NFLX, NJR, NWL, NEE, NKE, NOC, OXY, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, PAYX, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, SAIC, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SNPS, TDOC, TER, TRV, WU, WLK, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHE, DDM, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, EWA, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWY, THD, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, XLY, XLP, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/20/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Divergence between the indicator and the index has returned, but it didn't really go away. I wondered about it going into January when the indicator climbed.

The divergence is bearish, though. The CPI is trending downward (B) even as the index climbs (A). It suggests that the index will follow the CPI lower. However, you can see that divergence can last for months without any significant retrace in the index.

We're coming up on 2 months which compares to the 2 month's worth of divergence from mid July to September. The index finally tumbled in September. Maybe it will drop soon, too.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red line is the only one to make a move from a week ago (among the two lines, red and blue). The red line is the more sensitive of the two, so be careful what you say.

Notice that the red line is near an all-time high. The blue line is close behind, too. That's bullish but it makes me wonder how far higher can it go without a retrace.

We'll find out, of course. All it takes is time.

The prior chart is bullish but showing bearish divergence (a warning). This chart is bullish, too, but it's long in the tooth as well. So it's time for caution. Gather your cash and be ready to buy on the dip.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AKAM, AA, AEE, AXP, AIG, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, APA, ACGL, AVA, BERY, BBY, BKH, BAH, BRC, BRKS, CBT, CALM, CE, CF, CRL, CLF, CNA, CL, CONN, GLW, COST, CTS, DHR, DFS, D, DTE, DUK, EIX, RE, EZPW, FIS, FE, FMC, GME, GIS, GILD, EVRG, HBI, HL, HD, HON, JBHT, HURC, IEX, KBH, KLAC, LRCX, LANC, LDOS, LLY, RAMP, LMT, MCHX, MAS, MDCA, MGEE, MS, MLI, NFG, NOV, NJR, NEE, NKE, NI, NWPX, ORI, PKG, PRFT, POL, PPG, PEG, RMBS, RGS, REV, ROK, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SAIC, SEE, SO, SWX, SSYS, TFX, TPX, TER, TXN, TJX, TOL, UPS, UNM, VMI, WRB, WMT, WAT, WERN, WWW, IYM, IAI, ITB, IHE, IDU, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, PJP, ILF, XLP, XLF, GLD, XLV, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/19/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Noven Pharma

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Noven Pharmaceutical: NOVN (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 93 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AJRD, AES, AKAM, ALRM, AEP, AFG, AIG, ABC, ANIK, AON, ACGL, AVY, BERY, BRC, CNC, CF, CRL, CLX, CNA, COP, CLGX, ^DJU, DOV, EMR, RE, EXC, FFIV, FE, FRD, HL, HNI, IEX, ITW, NSP, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, LH, MGEE, NTGR, NJR, NEE, NVDA, OGE, ASGN, PDCO, PAYX, PNW, POL, PEG, RGA, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEE, TPX, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TREX, UGI, UPS, VC, WMT, WU, WMB, WSM, WDAY, ITA, IYK, IYC, ITB, IDU, FDN, SLV, EWH, EIS, DBA, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLP, SPY, XAR, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/15/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 144 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AJRD, AYX, AMZN, AEE, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMAT, AGO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, BLL, BBBY, BMRN, BMY, CLS, CNC, CNP, CVX, CHS, CLX, CGNX, CL, CAG, CLGX, GLW, DECK, DDS, D, BOOM, EIX, EOG, EL, RE, FFIV, FB, FE, FIVN, FORM, FTNT, GME, IT, GD, EVRG, HELE, HSY, JBHT, IDA, IEX, INCY, NSP, IPAR, IBKR, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, CNR, NEE, NOC, NVDA, OXY, ASGN, PANW, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PFE, PG, QCOM, RGA, REV, ^GSPC, CRM, SMG, SEE, NOW, SHW, LUV, SR, SSYS, TFX, TMO, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VRSN, VC, WAT, WU, WLK, WMB, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, BOTZ, IAT, SOXX, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, EWU, DBA, PEJ, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLP, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 1/14/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At A, the index formed a broadening pattern (right-angled and descending) (flat top, down-sloping bottom). It completed a partial rise and broke out downward around C where the pattern broke out downward...and then price stopped declining.

I extended the top red line to show where resistance is.

At BCD, the pattern is a head-and-shoulders bottom, even though the right shoulder needs air to inflate it. It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed above the blue neckline.

To me, this chart looks bullish, but I expect the index to retrace more followed by a resumption of the up move. Applying numbers, I'd guess a drop to 13,050 to 13,075 and then a rise back to 13,125.

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Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AFL, AA, AMED, AXP, AMGN, AMAT, AWI, AGO, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BAH, BMY, BBW, CPB, CRL, CHKP, CGNX, CMCO, CONN, COTY, CREE, DHR, DECK, DRQ, DTE, EIX, EFX, RE, EZPW, FDS, FEYE, FE, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GME, IT, GGG, EVRG, GFF, HAYN, HELE, HSY, HNI, HUBG, HURC, INCY, INFN, NSP, IBP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IBKR, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KLIC, LEG, RAMP, MTSI, MANH, MRTN, MA, MTRX, MRK, NOV, CNR, NEE, NXGN, NI, OMCL, ASGN, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PCG, RGA, RLI, ROK, RES, CRM, SLB, SMG, SHW, SLGN, SCCO, SWN, STMP, UGI, WAT, WLK, WMB, WSM, XLNX, IEZ, IDU, FXL, ICF, IYZ, EWK, EWW, EWT, TUR, PXJ, PHO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/13/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The last green vertical bar on the right is the bullish signal of the CPI chart. The indicator has been trending lower since November, but has ticked up in the last two weeks or so (since the December low).

I thought bearish divergence shown between the two lines (CPI and index) would see the index drop, but it's climbed instead, defying gravity. With the CPI line rising, my guess is the uptrend in the market's will continue.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both the blue and red lines have made a strong comeback a few days ago, so that they are much higher than they were a week ago.

The more sensitive red line shows it moving higher even as the index has eased lower in the last day or two (or so it looks in this chart).

So both charts are bullish. It suggests the market will continue higher so that's the way I'm going to place me bets.

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Here's a symbol list of 116 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, AMED, AEL, AON, APA, ADM, AGO, BBBY, BMRN, BMY, BRKS, BBW, CDNS, CALM, CPB, CRL, CTXS, CNO, CGNX, COP, CW, DHR, DUK, EOG, EPAM, EQT, RE, EXPD, FDS, FLEX, FORM, FRD, GILD, GS, HBI, HE, HSII, HP, HURC, INOV, NSP, IIIN, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KLIC, LHX, LEN, MAN, MRTN, MDCA, MRK, MGEE, MLHR, NOV, NOC, OXY, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PRFT, PEG, QCOM, RGA, RES, SCHW, SAIC, SWN, SXI, SSYS, TEVA, RIG, UNM, VMI, VC, WMT, WMB, WSM, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IAI, IYE, IHI, IEO, IHE, FXI, ICF, ECH, EWH, EIS, PXJ, IXC, XLP, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/12/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Micron Technology: MU (actual trade).

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Here's a symbol list of 126 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, ALKS, ADS, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, ANTM, AON, AMAT, ASH, AGO, BZH, BBY, BIG, BIIB, BA, BOOT, EPAY, BMY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, COG, CAL, CPB, CLS, CINF, CLX, CMCO, CAG, CONN, COP, CLGX, GLW, CROX, CSGS, DECK, D, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EQT, RE, EXC, FFG, FOE, FLS, FWRD, FDP, GME, GPS, GILD, GPN, GS, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, HBI, HE, HAYN, HELE, HP, IEX, INOV, JKHY, KMB, KSS, LRCX, LDOS, LLY, M, MAS, MDCA, MLI, NTGR, NXGN, OUT, OXM, PKG, PRFT, RMBS, RGS, RHI, RCKY, RES, SAIC, SIGI, SHW, SWN, TPX, TER, RIG, VMI, WMT, WSM, WWW, XLNX, ZBRA, IYE, IHE, FXL, ICF, EWI, PPA, PJP, XLE, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/11/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a chart of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

Starting from the left at D, we see a flag which appears near midway along the short-term uptrend.

At C, in blue, is a right-angled and ascending broadening formation. That's a mouthful describing what looks like a megaphone tilted upward so that the bottom of the pattern is horizontal, or nearly so.

At A is a descending triangle. The bottom of the pattern is flat and the top slopes downward. Price breaks out downward at A but quickly reverses.

The reversals sends price higher, from A to B. In examples of similar patterns, I noticed that the AB move tends to be powerful, lasting a multiple (like three, four, or more times) of the height of the triangle.

So I think the transports are in for a short-term move higher.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 5 days.

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ADTN, ADS, AEL, AIG, AMWD, ANIK, APA, AGO, AVY, BMI, BAX, BZH, BERY, BRKS, BBW, BLDR, CACI, CE, CLS, CNP, CIEN, CMCO, COP, CSGS, CMI, DVN, D, DRQ, BOOM, WIRE, EOG, RE, EZPW, FFIV, FIS, FLIR, FDP, FRD, GNW, GPN, HBI, HE, HELE, HP, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IDXX, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IPI, IVC, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, KLAC, LEN, MHO, MAN, MRO, MLM, MU, MLI, MUR, MYGN, NOV, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NXGN, NI, OXY, ASGN, OXM, RL, RGS, RHI, ROG, RES, SAIC, SIGI, SRE, SO, TECH, TXN, RIG, VLO, VEEV, V, VMC, WERN, XLNX, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IHE, FXI, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, EWO, EEM, EIS, EWJ, EWS, EWY, THD, TUR, PXJ, ROBO, IXC, XLY, XLE, XLV, XLB, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/8/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ANF, ADBE, ADTN, AMD, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AYX, AEE, AEP, AEL, APA, AMAT, AGO, ATO, AVY, BLL, BERY, BIO, BKH, BBW, CDNS, CLS, CNP, CLNE, CLX, CNO, CAG, CLGX, CREE, CRH, DHR, DFS, ^DJU, D, DRQ, DTE, DUK, EXP, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EZPW, FDX, FE, FIVN, FMC, FCX, FDP, GD, GOOGL, GPRO, HBI, HLIT, HTLD, DHI, JBHT, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, K, LB, LRCX, MGEE, MLHR, MOS, NCR, NFLX, NEU, NI, NVDA, PANW, PAYX, PICO, PNW, PPL, PINC, PGR, RL, REV, RES, SRE, SKX, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TDOC, TXT, TKR, RIG, UGI, UPS, VEEV, VRSN, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, IYF, EWO, EIS, EWY, EWT, QLD, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 41 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 7.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 21 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (17) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 1/7/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I took a break from doing nothing to go downstairs just after 2 PM EST and turned on the TV. There I saw what was happening in the capital. Notice that just after 2:00 (red line A) the composite started to drop. I was wondering how the market would react to the news. The Dow industrials dropped about the same time, too.

Notice how the composite has bottomed at the blue line. That's trendline support, but for it to be real, the composite has to turn upward here. I suspect that we'll see the markets rebound on Thursday. That goes against the above probabilities where 55% of the time the composite closes lower.

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Here's a symbol list of 226 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADBE, ATSG, ALB, AA, ADS, AEO, AEP, AEL, AXP, AFG, AMGN, ANTM, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ASH, AGO, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BERY, BBY, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BG, CBT, COG, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CX, CNC, CENX, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNA, CGNX, CONN, CR, CRH, CROX, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, DFS, DRQ, BOOM, EXP, EIX, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FB, FISV, FCX, FDP, IT, GD, GE, GILD, GL, GPRO, GGG, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HD, JBHT, INFN, INOV, IIIN, IPAR, IBKR, IVC, KBAL, LB, LZB, LANC, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, MHO, M, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, CNR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, JWN, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OUT, PANW, PKE, PATK, PRFT, PICO, POL, PINC, PFG, PRU, PHM, KWR, RL, RMBS, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, RES, SCHW, SEE, SEIC, SHW, SWX, SXI, SUM, TKR, TOL, RIG, UNM, VMI, VEEV, VC, VMC, WMT, WSO, WERN, WU, WLK, WSM, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, ITB, IHE, IDU, ICF, IHF, IAT, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWI, EWP, TUR, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, IEV, MXI, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/6/21. Indicators: Bulls are Back

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator shot up today (Tuesday), climbing along with the market. Any bearish signals during the past week have been erased by an indicator which can make up its mind for a week.

So we remain bullish as the vertical green line on the right of the chart (November) shows.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The red line turned bearish compared to a week ago, but the blue line didn't budge. Both lines are about flat over the last month. The red line turning bearish doesn't concern me that much. As you look at the chart, notice that it's been wobbling up and down recently. So maybe next week it'll be up.

What's it all mean? The CPI chart is bullish. This chart is neutral. So that favors a continuation of the upward trend, I believe.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AYI, AJRD, AES, ATSG, AEO, AMN, APOG, BCPC, BERY, BKH, BOOT, EPAY, BBW, BG, CBT, CACI, CINF, CLNE, CLF, CLX, COP, CLR, CLGX, CROX, CTS, DECK, D, EXP, EIX, EOG, RE, XOM, FOE, FLIR, FCX, FRD, GL, GS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HE, ILMN, INCY, INTC, IVC, JNJ, LXU, MCHX, MA, MDC, MGEE, MCO, MS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NXGN, JWN, OXY, OLN, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PRFT, PHM, KWR, RMBS, ROG, RES, SMG, SRE, SHW, SCCO, SWN, SXI, SUM, TEVA, RIG, TRV, TZOO, VMI, VEEV, VRTX, V, WRB, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYM, IYE, IDU, FDN, ICF, IYH, IHF, SOXX, EWH, EWW, EWY, EWT, THD, IXC, XLB, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/5/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Michaels Stores: MIK (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 298 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ADBE, AJRD, AFL, APD, ALB, ADS, AYX, AEO, AEL, AXP, AFG, ABC, AMGN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, AVY, AVA, AXS, BSET, BERY, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CACI, CALM, CAL, CE, CLS, CNP, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CL, CMTL, ED, CAG, COP, CLGX, GLW, COTY, CR, CRH, CROX, CCK, CTS, CMI, CW, DDS, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, DTE, DUK, EBAY, EIX, EMR, EIGI, EOG, EFX, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FB, FDX, FE, FLIR, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FDP, GPS, GD, GE, GNW, GILD, GL, GOOGL, GGG, THG, HLIT, HSC, HE, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INCY, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, ISRG, IVC, JCOM, KALU, KMT, LB, LHX, LH, LAMR, LAWS, LEN, LLY, LNC, LMT, MHO, M, MANH, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MGEE, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, MLI, ^IXIC, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NWPX, ASGN, OUT, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, POL, PPG, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ^GSPC, CRM, SAIC, SIGI, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SWX, SR, SXI, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TPX, TDC, TXN, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UPS, UNM, VMI, VRSN, VRTX, V, WRB, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHI, IDU, DDM, FXL, ICF, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, THD, QLD, PPA, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, GLD, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XLK, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/4/20. Year-end Review and Forecast to 2024

Here's the 2021 market performance review and forecast for the years 2021 to 2031, presented in a slider format. Keep in mind that the forecast is rarely accurate but some years it does well. To look at prior predictions, click this link. I'll update the charts there shortly.

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I don't discuss my portfolio nor the securities I own because I don't want to be accused of promoting them. However, I'm going to make an exception because some of what I have to say may help you trade or invest better. That's especially true if you're an old-timer (retired).

An article in the September 2005 issue of Active Trader magazine discussed an accounting firm that handled the tax returns for over 1,000 stock traders. In 2004, 36% of the traders showed a profit and just 4% made over $50,000. If you struggled to make money this year, or struggled to beat the averages, then you're not alone.

Back in the 2008 bear market, the Dow industrials, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 lost between 34% and 42%. I beat them but still lost 15%. That bear market taught me that I needed to diversify more.

As of 12/31/2020, I own 23 securities, split between 6 exchange traded funds and 17 stocks. You need only 8 stocks for good diversification, but I don't mind running my own mutual fund. If figure if Fidelity Magellan can hold 75 issues, I can own 30.

Toward the end of each year I focus on positioning the portfolio for the coming year (but my computer program evaluates my holdings against the S&P 500 index daily and I make changes periodically). I'm looking to reduce my holdings of under-performing securities and adding to existing ones or buying new stocks/ETFs. Sixty-five percent of the issues I own are beating the performance of the S&P 500 over the last 6 months. I keep track of that because my goal is to beat the market.

In 2018, I decided to take the tax hit and started selling my high profit but slow growers. I sold several utility stocks, for example. Right now, I own Evergy (EVRG) which pays a 10% dividend. If you look up the stock on Yahoo, you'll see the it has a dividend rate of just below 4%. How can I make 10% when it pays only 4%? Because I bought the stock just 4 days after it bottomed in the 2009 bear market for $11.58 (pre-merger) and the dividend has increased over the years. The stock is selling at $55 now. So not only do I own a high dividend paying stock, but I can bask in the capital gains, too.

A 10% return helps pay for living expenses and it beats what banks and money market funds pay on their holdings. Plus there's the possibility of capital gains (or losses).

Compare that return to IGV, "iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF." I own that, too. In 2020, it made 51.9% and that's without counting dividends. EVRG dropped almost 13% in 2020 (including dividends). Do I hold a stock with a 10% (almost) guaranteed payout plus capital gains/losses or buy something like IGV and hope for another big gain? The answer to that is yours (and mine).

Back to IGV. Look at that ETF on the weekly or monthly scale and you'll see that it has been trending higher since near the end of the bear market in early 2008-2009. Back then it was trading below $26. Today, the fund sells for $354. That's a huge long-term gain (I love the steady upward trend) and with a one-year gain of 52%, why should I be an active trader? Why not just buy and hold IGV and use dividends from EVRG to pay for living expenses? I can live life, do what I want, and collect my paycheck without worrying about selling by day's end (as in day trading).

Of course, it's not that easy, is it? Look at IGV from 2001 to 2009. The thing went almost nowhere. If I saw it lying on the side of the road, I'd want to give it CPR.

As the market rises to nose-bleed levels, I steer my buying toward ETFs to avoid single-stock exposure. In other words, a stock can drop 66% overnight because of an earnings miss or some financial shenanigans, but you likely won't see that happen in most (long, non-leveraged) ETFs. When the markets are cheaper, or if they dip, then I jump in and buy selective stocks I've been watching.

I've been itching to sell some of my holdings to rebalance my portfolio, but it worries me if the predictions for this year turn out to be true: It's going to be a tough year to make money. But with the COVID-19 recovery on the way, who knows? I'm hoping the markets and the world economies will surprise and make a good comeback. I hope to be positioned to grab my share of the winnings.

Let me be clear. I'm not suggesting or hoping you'll buy EVRG or IGV. Rather, they could drop this year. Do your own research and find securities that work for you and boost the performance of your portfolio.

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Here's a symbol list of 97 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AXDX, AYI, AMZN, AMED, AEO, AIG, ADM, ADSK, AVA, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BBY, BIO, BKH, BRC, BRKS, CBT, CHS, CIEN, CMCO, CLR, CLGX, CSGS, D, DRQ, DTE, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FMC, FDP, IT, GPN, GES, HSY, DHI, IDXX, INTC, IPI, IVC, NVTA, K, KLIC, LAWS, LXU, M, MA, MTRX, MDC, MOS, CNR, NEE, PDCO, PRFT, RGS, RCKY, ROG, SAIA, SUM, TPX, TXN, TMO, TOL, RIG, VRTX, WERN, WMB, WWW, IHI, IHE, DDM, BOTZ, IHF, EWC, EWH, EWW, EWL, EWT, THD, DBA, ILF, SSO, XLB, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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-- Thomas Bulkowski