As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%	Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%
Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

Friday 2/26/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, AMD, AFL, AKAM, ALK, ALB, DOX, AEO, AXP, AFG, AIG, ABC, AMGN, AMN, ANTM, APOG, ARCB, ADM, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AVNT, AXS, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, EPAY, CACI, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CNC, CNP, CRL, CIEN, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CONN, COTY, CCRN, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, RE, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FLIR, GME, GILD, GFF, HBI, THG, HIG, HELE, HSIC, HNI, INOV, NSP, IPG, ISRG, KBAL, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, L, LXU, MHO, MANH, MAN, MLM, MDCA, MGEE, MYGN, NBR, NOC, ORI, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PCG, POR, PFG, PGR, RGS, RGA, RNG, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SAIC, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TDC, TXN, TRV, TZOO, TREX, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WMB, XLNX, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 35 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 6.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 17 bearish ones with any remaining (9) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 2/25/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index started to move up following a channel (2 parallel red lines). This channel is based on just 4 trendline touches, so it's not robust (5 touches is better). Still we can see that point A has failed to reach the top trendline...so far.

The index is moving parallel to the channel trend. I'm not sure what this means. I thought that the failure of price to rise to the top channel line was bearish. Now I'm not so sure because of the channel-following upward trend.

Make of it what you will...

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Day 12 without water

On the home front and my water pipe burst dilemma, I found the correct plumbing fixtures at Home Depot. On the pipe burst, I cut the existing pipe out using a pipe cutter. The first time I tried, the cutter wasn't perpendicular to the pipe so it formed a spiral instead of cutting. When I did cut out the piece, the ends weren't square and had divots where the metal wasn't cut through before it broke off.

That took a lot of filing to make right and I won't know if it's okay until I pressurize it. The SharkBite coupling took a bit of work to put on but I think it's in place correctly.

After that, I started to remove 8 water shut-off valves to 4 sinks. These 8 valves have oval handles and they leak often, especially if you don't exercise them at least once a year. I got 7 valves done but the 8th is not cooperating. I've tried 3 times to unsolder the valve from the pipe. The plumber installed it too close to the wall, so I can't cut the pipe and I suspect the heat is being sucked away, into the wall, maybe to another coupling. (And I learned to heat the valve first and then grip it with pliers to twist it off. You don't want to heat it with your pliers gripping the valve and acting as a heat sink).

My plan is to replace all 8 valves and move onto two toilet valves before testing my system for leaks. The toilets should be easy.

I'll try again tomorrow and hope I don't start a fire. I put 2 lines back together with new 1/4 turn shut-off valves and will finish the 5 (hopefully 6) tomorrow. I ordered the two toilet valves, but they aren't due until the first week of March. And those are the ones that leak. Those are the ones I need to replace.

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Here's a symbol list of 119 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AA, AYX, AEO, AEP, ANIK, ADM, ARW, ADSK, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BRKS, COG, CDNS, CAL, CENX, CF, CHD, CGNX, GLW, CROX, CW, EMN, EOG, EPAM, EXPD, FFIV, GME, GPS, GL, GS, GFF, THG, HTLD, HP, HD, IEX, INOV, IPAR, IPG, ISRG, JAZZ, KELYA, KLIC, LZB, LEG, LDOS, LOW, MHO, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, MOS, NBR, NCR, NFLX, NEU, NUS, ORI, ASGN, OMI, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PLXS, PPL, PGR, RL, RGS, RNG, ROST, RES, SCCO, SCS, SNPS, TKR, TSCO, TRV, TG, TREX, VFC, VLO, VMC, WRB, XLNX, IYM, IDU, IAT, SLV, EWO, EIS, EWW, EWP, TUR, PPA, DBA, PXJ, PJP, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/24/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Price is coming down but in the last few days, the CPI has been inching upward. Hmm. I suppose what you see on the CPI chart is best described as a failure swing.

I'm thinking that a failure swing is a good (bullish) sign, but I don't like the rounded action of the index. It looks bearish. So we have divergence, but to a minor degree.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

This chart shows more pronounced divergence between the index and the red indicator line. The red line slopes upward and the index drops, as highlighted by the green line.

Yes, it's a colorful display.

It's bullish, though. The above stats, for the red line, are bullish, too (the blue line shows no change from a week ago).

The CPI chart and this chart are mildly bullish. If they are correct, then look for the index to rebound soon.

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On the home front and my water line break, I had my neighbor refill my water bottles with tap water, so I can hold out longer. I also scored 8 shutoff valves from Lowes and ordered 2 toilet valves. The ones I have tend to leak. They are the cheap, oval shaped knobs you see under your sink or toilet. The 1/4 turn valves are much better. I'm going to spend most or tomorrow replacing the 8 valves and hope I don't burn down my house (I'll need a torch to remove the old stuff but the new valves just slip on). I replaced my toilet valve about 3 years ago with a similar model, and got it done without any leaks. This time I'll see how the SharkBite works.

The bad news is there's still no end in sight to getting my main water break fixed. Mark Theriault sent me a coupling that I hope will fix the problem but the Post Office is holding it for ransom somewhere. The 1-2 day delivery "non guarantee" and huge cost of them delivering it late is a joke. I sent a nasty gram to the post office. I'm hoping to return some $ to Mark for his generosity.

Let me also offer a shout-out to Ronda P. for her hand-holding and offer to help.

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Here's a symbol list of 157 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACN, AEIS, AMD, ALL, AYX, AEL, AXP, ANIK, ADM, ARW, ADSK, AVY, BLL, BIG, BIO, BRKS, CACI, CDNS, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, ED, CONN, COST, CTS, CMI, DTE, EXP, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EXPD, FFIV, FDS, FAST, FOE, FEYE, FE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FDP, FRD, GPN, GL, GS, GGG, HIG, HAYN, HTLD, HD, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, INOV, ISRG, NVTA, KELYA, LHX, LZB, LDOS, RAMP, LMT, LOW, MHO, M, MANH, MA, MDT, NTGR, NEE, NXGN, OTEX, PANW, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PFE, POR, PEG, QCOM, RNG, RCKY, CRM, SLB, SAIC, SMG, SEE, SLGN, SKX, SR, STMP, SCS, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TOL, RIG, TREX, VFC, VRSN, VRTX, WRB, WLK, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IHI, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, IGV, IYF, EWO, EWH, EPP, EWS, EWL, TUR, IBB, DBA, PBE, PJP, IXN, XLY, XLF, XLI, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/23/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Pogo Producing

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Pogo Producing: PPP (actual trade).

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I released a new study of chart patterns which appear before price doubles. Tell your friends!

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Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AFL, AYX, AMZN, AEO, AEP, AFG, AON, ATR, BAX, BERY, BKH, BRC, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CF, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CLR, CTS, XRAY, ^DJU, ^DJI, DUK, EBAY, EOG, EFX, XOM, FFIV, FAST, FE, FLEX, FLIR, GME, GIS, GOOGL, EVRG, HBI, THG, HQY, HL, HSY, IPG, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, LAWS, LMT, MANH, MCHX, MSFT, MLHR, MUR, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, CNR, NCR, NEE, NKE, NWPX, OGE, OLN, OTEX, OMI, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PICO, PNW, PPL, PFG, PHM, DGX, RL, RGS, RGA, REV, ROST, RES, SAIC, SIGI, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SR, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TFX, TMO, TJX, VRSN, VC, WSO, XLNX, IYM, IYK, IYE, IHI, IHE, IDU, FTEC, IYH, IHF, IGE, EWZ, EWW, THD, QLD, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, QQQ, IXC, IXN, XLE, XLK, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/22/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

In the lower left corner is a broadening pattern. In this chart, I can't tell whether it's a broadening top or bottom but an extended view of another chart says it's a bottom.

On the right is a descending scallop. Those breakout downward 78% of the time. That percentage is high enough to bet on.

A check of the chart shows the index already heading lower, confirming the anticipated breakout direction, but not guaranteeing it.

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On the pipe burst problem in my kitchen, I woke at 4 AM and couldn't get back to sleep. I was worried about the diameter of my water pipe being 5/8" when the standard size is 1/2". I removed the insulation and measured it 3 different ways to confirm the outer diameter was 5/8".

A trip to Home Depot and talking with the plumbing guy said that it's the inner diameter which is 1/2 inch, so I had the standard size pipe. Yippee! Unfortunately, three plumbing companies bought up all of the SharkBite fixtures to fix my leak. A trip to Lowes showed the same empty shelf.

So I still have no water for another day. I'm hoping a visit to HD tomorrow morning scores a SharkBite solution. I also decided that I'll have to tear down one wall (sheet rock) and replace it as well as the other work I planned on water-logged sheet rock surrounding the kitchen.

I spent the rest of the day removing the kitchen cabinets (except for one) and trying to chill out. A check of my emails alerted me to the inner/outer diameter pipe problem from two people: Tom Herdman and Mark Theriault. Mark was kind enough to offer to send me a SharkBite. Thanks guys. You've made a stressful situation better with your advice.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 113 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACN, AEIS, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMZN, AEE, AEL, AXP, APOG, AMAT, ATR, AVA, BCPC, BBY, BAH, CE, CNC, CHKP, CTXS, ED, CR, CSGS, DHR, D, EBAY, EL, RE, FDS, FDX, FIS, FISV, FTNT, FCX, GE, GIS, GOOGL, EVRG, GFF, HSC, HE, HQY, HL, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, NSP, IBP, IPG, JBLU, LAWS, LDOS, LMT, MCHX, MLM, MRK, MU, NWL, NKE, OTEX, PCG, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PEG, PHM, DGX, REV, ROK, ROG, SHW, STMP, SUM, TFX, TG, VC, WSO, WSM, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYZ, IYF, EWD, EWL, EWU, DBA, PEJ, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLB, XAR, XLU, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 2/19/21. Brief Entry on Water Leak

I spent the mid portion of Thursday removing three kitchen cabinets to check for water damage (found none). Then searched for the water line leak. I punched a hole in the kitchen wall and figured out that a prior hole I made was where the water was coming from. I located the leak, which is shown. My plan is to fix the leak on Friday but I'm worried. The insulation says 5/8" and most water lines are 1/2". I hope Home Depot or Lowes have the repair pieces to fix it. I really don't want to get into the tight area with a blow-torch to sweat a reducing flange or some other remedy.

I'm too wound up to search my stocks for chart patterns, but the Patternz found patterns might suffice.

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Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AFL, APH, AMAT, BCPC, BAH, CDNS, CNP, CF, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CLX, EL, EXC, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, GPS, GIS, GGG, GFF, HQY, HTLD, HSIC, JBHT, INOV, IBKR, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, KMT, LB, LHX, LAWS, MTSI, M, MTRN, MLI, CNR, NJR, NXGN, NKE, NOC, OTEX, PPL, PG, PHM, REV, SCHW, SMTC, SLGN, SCS, SNPS, TXT, TZOO, VFC, WMT, WSO, WERN, XEL, BOTZ, IGE, EWK, EWZ, EWM, EWY, TUR, ROBO, MXI, GLD, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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Thursday 2/18/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I'm not an Elliott wave follower so this might be all wrong. But it appears that the move for the last two days is an ABC correction. Price drops at A, retraces at B, and resumes the decline at C.

After the correction ends, look for a resumption of the motive wave, up in this case. Leg D might be the first of 5 segments leading price upward.

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Wednesday update: This images is part of a picture for my insurance claim so you can ignore the fine print. The two holes are in the circle. Looking into the hole, I saw the water pipes to the far left, off the picture. Maybe, if I'm lucky, the break will be easily accessible and an easy fix.

On the home front, I cut through the sheet rock in my kitchen to find my water pipe break. When I looked to the left, I saw the water pipes. I haven't found the break yet, but will cut more holes into the sheet rock in the kitchen so I can be directly below the water pipes. They are sheathed in insulation, so I'll have to rip it off and see if the problem is a broken pipe there or if it's in the floor above. If it's above, then I'll have to tunnel through cabinets and then the wall to find the break.

It doesn't appear that putting a hole in the garage is necessary because I found the pipes to the left of where I was looking this morning.

I watched a This Old House clip of a water break. It's not the ice which expands to break the pipe. Rather, is the expansion of the ice along the length of the pipe which increases pressure dramatically within the pipe, eventually causing it to fail. They showed a demonstration of how the pressure increases by a multiple.

The insurance company said it would be almost a week before an adjuster would call (not visit), so that means no water for toilet flushing or showering as well as drinking for another week.

Plumber? Forget it. Their answering machines are full of people needing help.

When I went out yesterday for water and food, I found a few tidbits of food but the shelves were clear of any bottled water. Then I had a eureka moment: I could take my empty water bottles to my neighbor to fill with tap water (I prefer tap water over bottled water, anyway).

Of course, with COVID-19, we'll have to work out something where he can refill my bottles for me with tap water.

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Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADTN, AMD, AFL, ALRM, ALB, AMWD, AAPL, ACGL, AWI, ASH, AGO, BCPC, BBBY, BOOT, BAH, BLDR, CPB, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CLF, CAG, COP, CSOD, CSGS, CTS, D, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EFX, EL, XOM, FDS, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FTNT, FDP, FRD, GNW, GL, GGG, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HSIC, HON, JBHT, IEX, ITW, NSP, IPAR, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, KMT, LZB, LH, LAWS, LLY, LNC, LOW, MANH, MRTN, MDCA, MLI, MUR, CNR, NTAP, NEU, NWPX, OMC, OTEX, PATK, PICO, PFG, PGR, PHM, DGX, REV, RLI, SIGI, SKX, SWN, STMP, TGT, TXT, TJX, SLCA, UPS, VFC, V, WMT, WSO, XLNX, IYC, IHE, DDM, FXI, IGE, EZA, IXC, GLD, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/17/21. A Look At Indicators

If you live in the U.S. and listen to the news, you may have heard about the winter storm with an arctic plunge down the middle of the country. I live in one of the states who haven't got their act together. As the news reports say, we have over 800 generating stations in the state and a number of them went down because of the cold (down below 0 degrees in some spots).

Because the electric provider couldn't provide electricity, they had rolling blackouts. My neighborhood was caught in one of them. I lost power for 31 hours during the coldest snap of the storm. That means the temperature dropped below freezing inside my house. The picture is from my thermometer in my home office. Circled is the minimum temperature it recorded (29.9 degrees).

I had on 9 layers of clothing and 5 pairs of socks. I spent most of the day reading a novel in front of the window where sun beamed through a thin layer of clouds.

I know how homeless people must feel in the winter (numb) and have some sympathy for the Apollo 13 astronauts felt after their oxygen tank exploded on the way to the moon.

Fortunately, I had a can of tuna fish and some lavish bread to make sandwiches. A run to the grocery store the next morning showed empty shelves but I did stock up on some lunch meat and V-8 (a substitute for water because the shelves were bare).

All of my faucet fixtures were frozen. There was ice in my toilet bowl and bathtub. I turned off the water and opened the faucets to drain the system and hoped I'd be okay.

This morning (Wednesday), I learned that the city lost water pressure and their water tanks ran dry. "That's why I can't get any water!" So I turned on the water and promptly flooded my kitchen. The water coming in sounded like someone turned the bathtub faucet full on, so it flooded the chase that circles the kitchen, raining water down in a U-shape onto the counters below.

Apparently, I have a water leak in the wall leading to the upstairs master bath. I broke through the sheet rock this morning in the kitchen and didn't see anything except water-logged insulation and debris. And water.

I'll go into the garage later (maybe tomorrow) and tunnel through the sheet rock there to follow the pipes. Maybe I'll get lucky and this will be the only break in the house and that I'll be able to get to it to fix it (or the plumbers will. Called one but their 'memory was full' so I couldn't leave a message. I did email them last night, so maybe I'm on the list).

So that's the situation.

As to the below pictures, I'll let you figure them out. I'm not in the mood. I have to hunt down a large supply of bottled water so I have something to drink.

Above is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 203 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, AYI, AMD, AJRD, AKAM, ALRM, ALB, AA, ALL, AYX, AMWD, ABC, APA, AAPL, ADM, AWI, ADSK, BCPC, BIIB, BMRN, BMY, BLDR, CBT, COG, CPB, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CINF, CTXS, CTSH, CMCO, ED, CAG, COP, CLR, CLGX, CSOD, CR, CTS, DVN, DOV, DRQ, DUK, WIRE, EOG, XOM, EZPW, FAST, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FCX, FDP, GME, GIS, GS, GGG, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSIC, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INOV, NSP, IBKR, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, K, KMT, KLIC, LRCX, LANC, LNC, MHO, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MRK, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MOS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NWL, OXY, OMC, OMI, PATK, PTEN, PINC, PFG, PGR, DGX, RGS, REV, RES, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SIGI, SHW, SKX, SCCO, STMP, SSYS, RIG, TZOO, TG, UGI, UPS, VLO, VRSN, V, VMC, WSO, WMB, WSM, XLNX, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XHB, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/15/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Between the two red lines is a chart pattern called an ascending broadening wedge. Both trendlines slope upward, but the top line has a steeper slope than the bottom one so that the two lines diverge.

What is the most likely breakout direction? Answer: It's downward but just 52% of the time. I expected it to be higher. The direction is random, in other words.

I extended the top trendline to emphasize how close the index was to the line. It suggests there's more of an upward move to come.

However, this is one of the few patterns where a partial rise can occur.

A partial rise in an ascending broadening wedge is correct at predicting a downward breakout 60% of the time. A partial rise happens when price touches the bottom trendline and moves up but doesn't come that close to touching the top trendline before price heads back down.

If a partial rise were to occur in the index, it would have to be in the next few days (price needs to drop soon).

I guess we'll have to see what happens.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 252 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AES, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALKS, AXP, AIG, AMWD, APH, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ASH, ADSK, AVY, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BECN, BIO, BA, BRC, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CX, CENX, CF, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CONN, COP, CLR, CR, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, DOV, DRQ, EMN, EMR, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FICO, FDX, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GES, HSC, HIG, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ILMN, INFN, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, LB, LHX, LNC, LMT, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NCR, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, OMCL, ASGN, OTEX, OXM, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PG, PRU, PEG, DGX, RL, RGA, RLI, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SEIC, SHW, SCCO, SCS, SUM, TPR, TPX, TXT, TKR, TJX, TSCO, TRV, TG, SLCA, VFC, VLO, VMI, VRSN, VC, VMC, WRB, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FDN, FXL, IYH, IAT, IGV, IGE, IYF, ECH, EWQ, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, PPA, PEJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 2/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 265 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, ACN, AES, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AYX, AEP, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ASH, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BLL, BECN, BBBY, BA, EPAY, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, COG, CALM, CPB, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CVX, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CL, COP, CR, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJU, ^DJT, DOV, BOOM, EMN, EMR, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FWRD, FCX, FRD, GME, GPS, IT, GIS, GNW, GS, GPRO, GES, HSC, HIG, HE, HTLD, HSII, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDA, IEX, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IVC, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KLIC, LB, LHX, LRCX, LNC, LMT, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MLM, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MLHR, MS, MLI, MYGN, NFLX, NXGN, NUS, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PRU, PEG, PHM, DGX, RL, RGA, RLI, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEIC, SHW, SLGN, SWX, SWN, SCS, SUM, TPR, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, VFC, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WERN, WLK, WEX, WMB, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXL, FXI, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWW, EWY, PPA, PEJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 1.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 59 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is very bullish! High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 66 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (0) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 2/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

There's not a lot to say about the index this week. Not shown, but the chart pattern indicator has rounded over and is heading down. That's bad news, but things could change easily enough and the indicator could recover. It's at 85 now, still bullish.

The chart shows an uptrend, A, following a nice gentle slope higher. At B, the index tumbled but only to C. After that, it trended up, following line D.

Notice that the slope of A and D are similar. I've heard about this often enough, where a trendline break resumes at the same slope but I rarely see it in action. This is an example of that kind of trendline break which resumes. Nice.

That's it. I'll let you get back to watching Trump's impeachment trial.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 300 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AES, APD, ATSG, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALKS, AEL, AXP, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BLL, BAX, BECN, BBBY, BMRN, BA, BRC, BMY, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CALM, CLS, CX, CENX, CVX, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, COP, COST, COTY, CR, CREE, CROX, CCRN, CCK, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJT, D, DOV, BOOM, EMN, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, RE, EVH, EXPD, XOM, FB, FDS, FICO, FDX, FEYE, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, IT, GL, GS, GPRO, GGG, GFF, GES, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HL, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IVC, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, LB, LHX, LEG, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MHO, MTSI, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MLHR, MCO, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NFLX, NTAP, NXGN, ORI, ASGN, OXM, PKG, PKE, PATK, PFE, PCG, PICO, PPL, PFG, PEG, DGX, RL, RMBS, RGA, REV, RLI, ROG, ^GSPC, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SHW, SWN, SCS, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TPX, TDC, TEVA, TXT, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, VFC, VLO, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, WEX, WMB, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, FXL, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWK, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EWP, PPA, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, XLK, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/10/21. Indicators Bullish But...

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The green vertical line on the far right of the chart has beaten off the bears to change the chart bullish. However, look at the thin blue (CPI) line near the bottom of the chart.

Notice how it has rounded over at the top. That's not conclusive that the market will drop going forward because the indicator can move sideways. But it's usually a good sign of weakness.

Just look at the historical record in June and October. Those two times the indicator hit 100 and plunged, followed by the index dropping, too.

Although the chart is bullish, it's warning of a bearish retrace coming.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement this week over the prior week. They are following the index higher. I don't see anything that would cause me to be worried about the future, but these lines just follow the index anyway.

So the CPI chart is bullish but hinting of a bearish retrace, and this chart is bullish. I expect the uptrend to continue, but weakly. Maybe additional strong earnings will help it move higher, but weak reports can also send the market tumbling.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 270 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ACN, AEIS, AES, ATSG, ALK, AA, ADS, AMED, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ASH, ADSK, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BMRN, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CBT, COG, CLS, CX, CENX, CVX, CINF, CTXS, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COP, CSOD, GLW, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CW, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, D, DOV, EMN, EBAY, EMR, WIRE, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, FDS, FICO, FAST, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GME, GPS, IT, GNW, GPN, GL, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSIC, HNI, HON, HUBG, JBHT, HURC, IDA, ITW, INCY, INOV, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, TILE, IPI, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, K, KELYA, KBAL, LB, LHX, LAMR, LEG, LDOS, LNC, RAMP, LMT, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, MDT, MSFT, MLHR, MS, MOS, MLI, MYGN, NJR, NOC, OLN, ASGN, OXM, PANW, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PEG, QCOM, DGX, RL, RGA, REV, RLI, SAIA, SLB, SCHW, SEIC, NOW, SHW, SKX, SWX, STMP, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TFX, TPX, TDC, TXT, TJX, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TZOO, TG, VFC, VMI, VEEV, VC, VMC, WRB, WU, WLK, WEX, WWW, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IHF, IAT, IGV, IGE, IYF, EWK, ECH, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWL, TUR, EWU, PPA, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XRT, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! PEG

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Public Service Enterprise Group: PEG stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 146 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, ADTN, AJRD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, AMED, AIG, APH, APOG, ARCB, ADSK, BECN, BZH, BBY, BIO, BMY, COG, CX, CENX, CSCO, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CNO, COP, CLR, CCRN, CMI, ^DJU, EMN, WIRE, EIGI, EL, EXPD, XOM, FB, FDX, FE, FLIR, FCX, GPS, GPRO, HBI, HL, HSII, HSIC, IDA, IDXX, INCY, IBP, K, KMT, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LEN, RAMP, LOW, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MU, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NJR, OXY, OXM, PYPL, PRFT, PICO, PNW, POR, PEG, RL, RJF, ROG, SEE, NOW, SWX, STMP, SXI, TGT, TPX, TDC, TSCO, RIG, TREX, VLO, VMI, VRTX, VC, VMC, WU, WLK, WDAY, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IDU, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EPP, THD, EWU, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, GLD, XHB, XLB, XAR, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

LHR is a head-and-shoulders bottom with L being the left shoulder, R is the right shoulder, and head (H) is in between the two.

The squiggles turn into a valid chart pattern when the composite closes above the red neckline. Notice how the index rises in a nice move upward, fulfilling the measure rule.

That rule computes the height of the pattern from the low at the head to the neckline directly above then adds the height to the breakout price (where price crosses the red neckline). Price reaches the target, on average, 71% of the time.

I drew two blue lines following the uptrend which formed after the breakout from the head-and-shoulders pattern. The lines make a pattern, too. It's called an ascending broadening wedge. That means the two lines slope upward and diverge with plenty of crossing from trendline to trendline and plenty of trendline touches. The wedge is a pain to find and rare, too.

What the chart shows is that the index is headed toward the top trendline. If it behaves like it should, you'll see the index drop after it touches the top trendline or comes close to it before tumbling.

Of course, it might drop sooner, too, or continue rising.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AXDX, AEIS, AJRD, APD, AEE, AEL, APH, APA, ARCB, ADP, AXS, BSET, BZH, BERY, BIO, BA, BMY, BLDR, BG, CACI, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CSCO, CLX, COP, CLGX, CSOD, COTY, CCRN, CW, DFS, DTE, EMN, WIRE, EFX, EL, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FE, FCX, GME, IT, GNW, GPRO, THG, ITW, KALU, KLAC, LDOS, LLY, LOW, LXU, MRK, MGEE, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NKE, NOC, ORI, OLN, OTEX, PKE, PICO, PINC, PRU, QCOM, RJF, REV, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, STMP, SCS, SNPS, TPR, TDC, TXN, TKR, RIG, TZOO, VLO, VC, WSO, WEX, WWW, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, FDN, FXL, IHF, IGV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWP, EWU, DBA, PEJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XHB, XLI, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 2/5/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ALB, ADS, ABC, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, BCPC, BZH, BBY, BIO, BLDR, CBT, CALM, CAL, CVX, CHS, CHD, CLX, CNO, CMTL, CLR, CSOD, COTY, CREE, CCRN, ^DJU, BOOM, EBAY, WIRE, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FLIR, FLS, FORM, FDP, GME, GNW, GPN, GPRO, HSC, HSII, HP, HNI, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, IPI, IVC, NVTA, JAZZ, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LB, LAMR, LANC, LDOS, L, MANH, MDCA, MRK, NBR, CNR, NEU, NI, JWN, OXY, OMC, OMI, OXM, PATK, PYPL, PLXS, PGR, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RGA, SMG, SIGI, SRE, SKX, SR, SXI, SCS, TXT, TREX, SLCA, UPS, VLO, WRB, WSO, WMB, DDM, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IYF, THD, PPA, PXJ, IXC, XLF, GLD, XLI, XAR, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 13 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 578 stocks searched, or 2.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 2/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red line under price at B. It shows support because the index bounced off the line three times.

Extending the line to the left, at A, shows support continues. The two red lines remind me of eyebrows.

Next came the V-shaped blue lines. Notice that the trend going down mirrors the slope going up. At the start, I drew a horizontal blue support line and then drew the one on the right. Label B was in the way, so I drew it below B, completing the symmetry of the picture.

Other than eyebrows with a V-smile, I'm not sure what it all means. If we assume symmetry will continue, then the composite will lose 100 points (to 13,500) and go horizontal, resting on the far left blue line to complete the picture.

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Here's a symbol list of 90 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, AEIS, ATSG, AKAM, AA, DOX, AEO, ANIK, AMAT, ATO, AVA, BZH, BBBY, BKNG, BLDR, COG, CDNS, CHD, CLNE, CMTL, BOOM, WIRE, EFX, FEYE, FE, FMC, FORM, GME, GILD, GOOGL, HL, HD, HURC, INFN, IBP, IIIN, NVTA, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LDOS, LXU, MHO, MAN, MAS, MU, MUR, NBR, CNR, NFLX, ASGN, OMI, PRFT, PHM, QCOM, ROK, SCHW, SMG, SIGI, SSYS, TPR, TER, TEVA, TXN, TKR, TREX, VEEV, WSO, WERN, XLNX, IHE, QTEC, IYH, SLV, EWJ, EWP, THD, TUR, IBB, DBA, PXJ, PHO, XHB, XRT, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/3/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bullish yesterday (two price bars back) after briefly turning bearish. Of course, the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, so we'll have to see if the bullish signal remains.

Today's (Tuesday's) move pulled the indicator up a lot, suggesting a broad advance across many stocks. Could this be the end of the downtrend? I wondered about that and thought of flipping my targets (Tom's Targets in the grid at page top) to bullish from bearish.

I decided to leave them alone in case this is a pause (upward retrace) in the downward trend.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines are worse this week than they were at the same time a week ago. However, if you look at the chart, you'll see the lines (blue and red) have curled up. That's bullish.

So both charts this week are either outright bullish (CPI chart) or hinting of an upturn (this chart).

The big question is, will the uptrend continue? For that, I have no answer. Sorry.

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Here's a symbol list of 82 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ALL, AYX, AEO, BLL, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BRKS, BLDR, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLF, CLX, CMTL, CROX, CCRN, DECK, DVN, DRQ, WIRE, EOG, EQT, XOM, FB, FE, GME, GS, HIG, HQY, HTLD, HL, HSII, HON, INFN, IIIN, IVC, JCOM, KELYA, KFRC, LAWS, LDOS, MHO, MRO, MA, NBR, CNR, NFLX, NJR, NXGN, JWN, OMI, PANW, POR, PHM, RMBS, RJF, RHI, CRM, SCS, SNPS, TECH, WSO, WDAY, ITB, IEO, FXI, ICF, IYZ, EEM, EWG, EWY, EWT, TUR, XHB, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/2/21. GME and AMC Intraday

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I released a new version of Patternz (version 7.28). This version fixes bugs. After I released it this morning, I crashed the simulator. Version 7.29 appears to fix it, so you can download that if you've already installed Patternz.

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Today, I thought I'd look at Gamestop (GME) and AMC (AMC) to see how easy/difficult it would be to make money trading them. Let's look at Gamestop first.

This is the stock for the last 4 days on the 5 minute scale.

Last Tuesday, the stock closed at 147.98. You can just seen a nubbin of it on the chart (far left).

On Wednesday, the stock gapped up to open at 354.83, a gain of 140%. I show the horizontal blue line where it opened. At A, the stock peaked at a high of 380. Notice that if you bought the stock at the open, you'd have a narrow window of opportunity to profit starting at A. For the rest of the day, you'd be losing money.

The next day, Thursday, you could buy the stock at the open, B, and ride the stock higher, much higher, to 483, representing a gain of 39% if you traded it perfectly. You had about 1.5 hours to sell the stock for a profit. Most of the day was spent below the opening price.

On Friday, the blue line at C shows that you had less than 5 minutes (the opening bar) to sell the stock for a profit.

Today, Monday, the stock opened high and dropped steadily after 11:00.

Look at the entire chart and notice how buying at the open and trying to sell during the same day would most likely leave your wallet or purse lighter than when you started. Also notice that the stock was higher at A than it closed today. That tells me the trend is downward.

AMC Intraday

Does AMC (AMC) stock show the same behavior? Let's take a look.

This is AMC stock (one of those highlighted in the media over the last week) on the 5-minute scale.

If you bought at the open, at A, you'd have a loss. The next day, B, you would have fared better by having over half an hour to sell for a profit.

At C, the profit opportunity would happen just after noon but you'd have to weather a dip and sell when others were out to lunch.

Forget today (D). Buying at the open would result in a loss, riding the stock down from 17 to about 13, for a loss of 24%.

Trading AMC stock would not be an easy way to make money either. Of course, if you held onto the stock, you might be able to eke out a profit on succeeding days.

AMC shows a different trend. The last three days price has climbed (the open at D is higher than C, and C is higher than B), so it's an upward trend.

Buying near the day's low, if you're lucky enough to do that and selling higher (especially the next day in AMC) would be profitable as would owning the stock before these shenanigans began.

The point I'm making here is trading these stocks to make money won't be easy.

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Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AMD, AA, AEE, AEL, AFG, AMWD, AMAT, AVA, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BRKS, CHD, CINF, CL, CMCO, CSOD, CREE, CRH, CROX, DVN, EMN, EMR, EIGI, EPAM, EQT, RE, FDS, FISV, FLIR, FTNT, GME, GPN, GS, GPRO, HSC, HIG, HL, HSII, HSY, IPG, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, JNJ, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LLY, LXU, MRO, MA, MTRN, MDT, MLI, ^IXIC, NJR, NOC, PICO, PINC, ROG, RES, SAIC, SEE, SUM, UPS, WERN, WLK, ITA, IAI, IYC, IEO, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, UNG, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/1/21. Monthly Forecast Update

• Forecast
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Forecast

Before I forget, I've created a new series of articles which I call Traps. I only have one written so far, but the category is meant to place chart patterns in the price landscape to show what works and what doesn't. The first article is The Top Trap. It describes when patterns fail after a top occurs. You can find links to Traps on the home page, too.

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for February, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 29 January 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Compared to last year's totals, where the list was stable from month to month, this time the list has been shuffled. That's probably because it's only been a month. Results are easier to change after a month (YTD) compared to 12 months (YTD). Notice how a few near the bottom of last year's list (energy, real estate) are near the top now.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AKAM, ALKS, AEE, AIG, APA, ACGL, AVA, BMI, BAX, BIIB, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CVX, CINF, CLX, CROX, CSGS, DVN, BOOM, EQT, RE, EXPD, EZPW, FLIR, FLS, GME, GD, GPN, GS, GFF, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HSII, HSY, HOLX, JBHT, IPI, ISRG, JKHY, JAZZ, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LANC, LLY, LNC, MTSI, M, MRO, MTRN, MDCA, MRK, MLI, NBR, CNR, NJR, NOC, NVDA, ORI, OLN, OTEX, PKE, PYPL, PICO, PNW, PPG, PINC, PEG, PHM, KWR, RMBS, SCHW, SEE, SCCO, STMP, TER, TKR, TRV, UGI, WEX, IEO, IHE, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, SOXX, EWA, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, PPA, IEV, ILF, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski