As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%	Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%
Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

Thursday 12/31/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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Price closes lower 60% of the time the day before New Years based on my research. It closes higher on Monday 53% of the time.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the bottom red trendline first and then saw the symmetrical triangle when I drew the top line. It was an afterthought. The triangle does show a narrowing of price movement over the last two days, like a coil twisting tighter and tighter, waiting to spring open.

Symmetricals breakout upward 60% of the time, but I don't know the influence of holiday trading on the percentage. Given that the numbers suggest a lower close, I would expect the index to pierce the lower trendline.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, ADTN, AJRD, AMZN, DOX, AEO, AEP, AXP, AMWD, ADM, AWI, AIZ, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BIO, BKH, BRC, BBW, CE, CF, CHKP, CHS, CTXS, CL, CONN, CLGX, COST, CR, CREE, CSGS, CW, DDS, EBAY, EIX, EOG, RE, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FAST, FFG, FEYE, FISV, FMC, GES, HSC, HL, HELE, HSIC, IBKR, KALU, LAWS, LEG, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MRK, MSFT, MYGN, CNR, NJR, OGE, PDCO, PCG, PPL, PINC, RMBS, RCKY, SCHW, SAIC, SWX, SCS, RIG, UNM, V, WERN, WMB, IYM, IHE, FXI, IGE, EWK, EEM, EWH, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, EWU, DBA, XLV, XLK, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/30/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Not only is there bearish divergence, where the indicator trends downward and the index trends upward, but we have a new bearish signal today.

That's shown on the chart with the vertical red line on the far right of the chart.

The signal surprises me. The Dow industrials dropped only 68 points today (Tuesday) and yet the general market seemed to get hammered, not by a lot, but some. And yet the indicator has turned bearish. The general market was already weak and today's drop just added to the pain. We know that's true because the indicator has been trending down for weeks now.

That's kind of scary (downward indicator trend), come to think of it...

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines didn't change value from a week ago. During the past week, though, the red line (the more sensitive of the two) moved up and then came back down. Both lines have been flat for most of the month.

I show the flat top of the red line and up-sloping bottom. It's an ascending triangle but being on an indicator, I'm not sure if it's important or not. Most ascending triangles (63%) in stocks breakout upward. So there's hope the index will move higher.

The CPI chart is bearish and this chart hints of a bullish breakout. Hmmm... I'm not sure what to make of it. Maybe after the holiday passes, things will make sense, but it may take until Jan 20 before things really settle down.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 174 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, ALRM, AA, ADS, DOX, AEE, AFG, AAPL, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BAX, BBBY, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BMY, BRKS, COG, CAL, CE, CENX, CF, CHKP, CHS, CTXS, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, CONN, CR, CSGS, CTS, CMI, CW, DRQ, DUK, EIX, EOG, EQT, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FDS, FAST, FOE, FEYE, FORM, IT, GIS, GFF, HSC, HSII, HELE, HSY, HNI, HD, IDA, IDXX, NSP, IBP, IBKR, NVTA, KFRC, LB, LAMR, LEG, LNC, L, M, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRX, MSFT, MLI, MYGN, NCR, NJR, NEE, NWPX, OGE, PANW, PKE, PATK, PCG, PICO, PLXS, PINC, PFG, DGX, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ROG, SCHW, SAIC, SMG, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, SWN, SUM, TECH, TEVA, TKR, TOL, TRV, VFC, VRSN, V, VMC, WMB, WDAY, ZBRA, IYM, IYK, DDM, QTEC, IYZ, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, TUR, QLD, DBA, PEJ, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, SPY, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/29/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring York Water: YORW stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 195 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, ATSG, AFG, AMWD, AON, APA, AAPL, ACGL, ASH, AGO, ADSK, BLL, BSET, BMRN, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BMY, CAL, CE, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHS, CHD, CNA, CNO, CMTL, CAG, CLGX, COST, COTY, CR, CREE, CMI, ^DJI, D, DOV, DRQ, BOOM, EMN, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EL, RE, EXC, XOM, FAST, FMC, GME, IT, GPN, GFF, HBI, HSC, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, DHI, HOV, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, INOV, IBP, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, JAZZ, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEN, LOW, MHO, MANH, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MLHR, MUR, MYGN, NBR, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NEU, OXY, ORI, PANW, PYPL, POR, PPG, PG, QCOM, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SMG, SEE, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SXI, SSYS, TECH, TEVA, TXT, TKR, RIG, VLO, VRTX, VMC, WU, WEX, WMB, WDAY, IYM, IYK, IYC, ITB, IHE, DDM, QTEC, ICF, IYZ, SLV, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EPP, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWT, TUR, QLD, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLF, XHB, XLB, XLK, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 12/28/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a busy pic on the daily scale. I probably went through the patterns the last time around, but let's go through them again.

Starting from the left, we have a diamond top. It looks like a diamond although it's not perfect.

Following that is a broadening bottom pattern which turns the index upward in late September.

After that is a broadening top pattern which is the same as a bottom except price trends upward into the pattern.

Next comes the new pattern, a falling wedge. I extended the bottom line to show how the index is following it, finding support.

Notice that the wedge broke out upward but soon fumbled and returned to the bottom trendline.

If you look from the right of the chart, where the index ends, horizontally across the chart, you'll see that the index is resting on the July and August peaks. It's finding support there, suggesting the index will turn upward soon. However, since we're dealing with an average of stocks, who knows what the herd will do.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 16 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: APA, CMTL, BOOM, XOM, GME, HSIC, HOV, HURC, NVTA, MTRX, MUR, MYGN, NBR, OXY, RES, RIG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/25/20. Market Holiday

I released two new patterns called the V pivot and inverted V pivot. They are based on the findings of Vicky Wong.

They are three-bar patterns with the middle bar extending beyond the adjacent price bars by at least 2%.

I tested them on weekly scale, but they can appear on any time period. It you happen to run across one of them, tell them I said hello.

Here's a joke to lighten the mood. "I don't care what star you're following. Get those camels off my lawn!"

Have a safe and happy holiday everyone. Next year will be better.

My nephew sent me the T-shirt a few years back...Way cool. Pictured on the right. Thanks, Nick!

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 12/24/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale, but I only show the last 5 days.

The thick red lines form a pattern called an ascending triangle. Those have flat tops and up-sloping bottoms, like that shown here. Price should touch the two trendlines at least 5 times, total (3 of one trendline and 2 of the other).

Ascending triangles breakout upward 63% of the time. This one broke out downward and price dropped with gusto near the end of the session.

If this were an individual stock, I'd expect a pullback to the breakout price and then a resumption of the downward move. But we're dealing with a collection of stocks.

Apparently, many stocks in the composite stampeded for the exits. We'll have to wait another day to see if this trend persists. My guess is that tech stocks will be under pressure at the opening bell. Maybe they'll recover after that.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, AYI, ADBE, AFL, AKAM, ADS, AXP, AIG, AON, APA, AAPL, ATO, ADSK, AVA, BZH, BBY, CACI, CNP, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CMCO, CMTL, CLGX, CREE, CTS, DVN, DUK, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FDX, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FLIR, GME, HBI, HLIT, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HON, HOV, HURC, INFN, IBP, NVTA, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, KLIC, LAMR, LAWS, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MCO, MUR, MYGN, NBR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NJR, NEE, OXY, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PINC, PFG, PGR, PRU, PHM, DGX, RMBS, RCKY, RES, SEE, SMTC, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TMO, TOL, TSCO, RIG, VMI, WMT, WDAY, ITB, IHI, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IGV, IYF, EWO, EEM, EIS, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWT, TUR, ROBO, IXN, MXI, XLK, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/23/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

According to the chart, a bearish signal appeared 3 day ago. My recollection is it happened yesterday. Recall that signals can appear or disappear for up to a week. It's like driving down the road, passing your exit, and then hearing from the GPS that you should have turned back there. No kidding.

Still, a bearish signal is a bearish signal. It's usually solid after 3 days, so maybe this is a valid bearish turn. If tomorrow were to see the market skyrocket, the bearish signal would disappear. So keep that in mind.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

This week, the signals are worse than what they were a week ago, so this chart is bearish, too.

Look at the thick red line from June to September. The retrace from the top of the pattern to the end is more than halfway. If the thick blue line retraces a similar amount, it will mean a good drop in the index. In other words, the markets could show extended weakness in the coming days.

I guess I'm in a bullish mood, but I don't think we're going to retrace much. I'm looking for new highs and buying accordingly.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AEE, AIG, ANIK, APA, AAPL, ARW, BBY, BIG, BBW, CLS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CF, CLNE, CLX, CL, CMTL, CLGX, CW, D, BOOM, EMN, EOG, RE, XOM, EZPW, FIS, FEYE, FIVN, FLEX, FDP, GME, GD, HBI, HSC, HE, HQY, HSIC, HNI, HOV, HURC, ILMN, INFN, IBP, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LNC, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MTRX, MDCA, MLHR, MCO, MS, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, CNR, NTAP, OXY, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PDLI, PETS, PNW, PRU, REV, RCKY, RES, SLB, SRE, NOW, TGT, TPX, RIG, TRV, TZOO, VFC, VEEV, WMT, WU, WSM, WDAY, IAI, FTEC, FXL, FXI, IAT, IYZ, IYF, EWH, EWM, EWT, DBA, PBE, XLF, XRT, XLU, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/22/20. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Medimmune: MEDI stock. (An actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 196 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, AJRD, AKAM, ADS, ALL, AYX, ABC, AMGN, ACGL, ARW, BLL, BECN, BZH, BMRN, COG, CPB, CX, CNC, CNP, CRL, CHS, CLX, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CONN, GLW, CRH, CCK, CW, ^DJU, D, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EIX, EIGI, EOG, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FFG, FDX, FOE, FE, FLS, FCX, FDP, GPS, GD, GPN, GS, GGG, EVRG, GFF, THG, HSC, HE, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HUBG, IDA, NSP, IBP, IIIN, INTC, IVC, JBLU, KALU, K, KLIC, LEG, MLM, MAS, MRK, MGEE, MLHR, MS, MLI, MYGN, NOV, NJR, NWL, NEE, NXGN, NKE, NI, OXY, ORI, OMC, OTEX, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPL, PFG, KWR, QCOM, REV, RHI, RCKY, SO, SCCO, LUV, SWX, SWN, SR, TSCO, TRV, TZOO, TG, SLCA, UGI, VMI, WRB, WMB, WWW, WDAY, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, PXJ, QQQ, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLU, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 12/21/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

At valleys AB is located a double bottom. It confirms as one when price closes above the horizontal red line pointed to by line C. At D, we see a throwback to the breakout price, which is a common occurrence among chart patterns. They happen about two-thirds of the time.

Since then, the index has moved up in a stair-step fashion, something that should delight Elliott wavers.

Notice how the move from B to the end of the chart starts out steep but rolls over as if it's having trouble moving higher. That's a sign of upward momentum weakening.

The index might move sideways for a time, recovering from the BC move.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 163 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, ADS, DOX, AEO, AMGN, APH, AON, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, ADSK, BECN, BIG, BMRN, BKH, BRC, BRKS, BBW, COG, CALM, CE, CX, CHS, CLNE, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CONN, CLGX, GLW, COST, CRH, CCK, DDS, ^DJU, ^DJI, DRQ, EMN, EIX, EOG, RE, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FICO, FFG, FDX, FEYE, FLIR, FLS, FRD, GME, GNW, GILD, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HD, HON, HUBG, IDA, ITW, INOV, IIIN, INTC, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KALU, KMT, LH, LAWS, LEN, MAN, MLM, MAS, MDCA, MGEE, MCO, MS, MLI, NTGR, NJR, NEU, NXGN, NKE, NOC, ASGN, OTEX, PANW, PAYX, PNW, PLXS, POR, PFG, QCOM, REV, SO, SWN, SR, SRDX, TJX, TSCO, UGI, VMI, WRB, WMT, WWW, WDAY, IAI, IYC, IDU, DDM, FTEC, BOTZ, ICF, IYF, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EZA, TUR, QLD, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLB, XLK, XLU, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/18/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADS, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, AWI, AIZ, BZH, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, EPAY, BBW, COG, CDNS, CALM, CHKP, CLNE, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CL, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLGX, CRH, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, RE, XOM, FB, FDS, FFG, FIVN, FLEX, GD, GILD, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSII, HNI, HD, IDA, ILMN, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, JBLU, LEN, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MHO, MANH, MLM, MAS, MUR, ^IXIC, NEU, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PYPL, PFE, PPG, PRU, QCOM, RMBS, REV, RNG, SCHW, SRE, SHW, SCCO, SWX, SWN, TER, TKR, TSCO, TG, UNM, VMI, WERN, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYK, ITB, DDM, FTEC, FDN, FXL, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, IAT, IGV, SLV, EWA, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EPP, EZA, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, PPA, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, GLD, XRT, USO, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 25 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 4.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 12/17/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Yesterday's headline was bullish and today's is bearish. Go figure.

I drew a trendline along the recent bottoms, from Friday onward to today (Wednesday). At A, the index poked through the bottom trendline but recovered before day's end to return above the trendline.

However, by day's end, the index had again dropped below the bottom trendline (B).

I drew a parallel line along the recent peaks to form a channel.

To recap, the index fell out of the channel, pulled back, and fell out again. I think that's bearish, hence the new headline. Maybe it takes three tries to fall out of a channel and hurt yourself.

The chart pattern indicator, not shown, flipped around and headed lower. It's in the neutral zone as I recall, looking for Romulans.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 181 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AFL, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, ADS, AEO, AFG, AIG, ANIK, AAPL, ACGL, AWI, AVY, BLL, BECN, BIO, BMRN, BRC, BLDR, COG, CAL, CE, CLS, CENX, CHKP, CLNE, CLX, CTSH, ED, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, CRH, CW, DOV, DRQ, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EBAY, WIRE, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FDS, FORM, GPS, GD, GE, GILD, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HSII, HNI, HOLX, HURC, IDA, KALU, KMT, KLIC, LB, LH, LEN, RAMP, MTSI, M, MANH, MLM, MAS, MA, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, MOS, MUR, CNR, NTAP, NEU, OGE, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PYPL, PDLI, PNW, POL, PPG, PPL, PFG, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, REV, ROG, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TXT, TKR, TSCO, RIG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, WMT, WU, ITA, IHE, FDN, QTEC, IYH, SLV, EWG, EWM, EWL, PPA, PHO, ROBO, XLY, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/16/20. Indicators Bullish!

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish CPI signal that appeared as recently as yesterday has disappeared. The indicator can change its mind for up to a week. Now, it's bullish, going back to a bullish signal in early November.

The bearish divergence between price and the indicator (the two thick blue lines) has also disappeared when the index skyrocketed today. I drew two red lines thinking that's bullish divergence, but it's not. You draw bullish divergence below the two lines (that is, below the CPI and below the index), not above them. So ignore the two red lines even if they show the CPI is more bullish than the index.

So the indicator is bullish and doesn't show any signs of weakness.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The two lines, the red and blue ones, show no difference in performance from a week ago. I'd say they are in a holding pattern.

The CPI chart is bullish. This chart is neutral. I don't see any evidence of weakness, so I'm looking for the indices to continue higher. The trend is your friend until it ends.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 94 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, APD, ADS, AEL, AAPL, AMAT, ASH, AVY, BSET, BBBY, BRC, BMY, COG, CDNS, CNC, CLNE, CONN, CCK, DFS, EOG, RE, EXC, XOM, FORM, GD, GILD, EVRG, HSII, HURC, IDA, NSP, INTU, JBLU, K, LAMR, LEN, MANH, MRTN, MLM, MAS, MTRN, MDCA, MU, MYGN, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NEU, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PATK, PRFT, PNW, POR, PPG, PEG, QCOM, REV, ROK, SMG, SHW, LUV, SWN, SR, SUM, TFX, UGI, VFC, WERN, WEX, QTEC, FXI, ICF, EWO, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWI, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLY, XHB, SPY, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/15/20. Scam, Shingles and Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

Two items that you may find of interest. First, I received 16 phone calls on Saturday from "Apple Computer" (supposedly) telling me that my account with them had been breached. Each time they called my land line, I blocked their phone number (I have a gizmo which does this). The phone call is a scam. You've probably heard about it. Don't be fooled. Don't call them.

Second, the shingles virus. "Shingles is an outbreak of rash or blisters on the skin. It is caused by the varicella-zoster virus - the same virus that causes chickenpox. After you have chickenpox, the virus stays in your body. It may not cause problems for many years. But as you get older, the virus may reappear as shingles. Anyone who has had chickenpox is at risk for getting shingles. But this risk goes up as you get older; shingles is most common in people over age 50." The pain from the rash has been described as being stabbed with a knife.

"There are vaccines to prevent shingles or lessen its effects. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that healthy adults 50 years and older get the Shingrix vaccine. You need two doses of the vaccine, given 2 to 6 months apart." Note: Zostavax is another vaccine (about 50% effective) which is no longer available in the US as of November 18, 2020. "Shingrix provides strong protection against shingles and PHN [Postherpetic neuralgia is pain that continues after a bout of shingles. This pain may last from months to years]. Two doses of Shingrix is more than 90% effective at preventing shingles and PHN. Protection stays above 85% for at least the first four years after you get vaccinated." In other words, you'll need another shot in 4 or 5 years.

"Healthy adults 50 years and older should get two doses of Shingrix, separated by 2 to 6 months. You should get Shingrix even if in the past you..."

• had shingles
• received Zostavax
• are not sure if you had chickenpox

I had the Zostavax shot 3 years ago and got my Shingrix shot a few days ago. I'll go back for the 2nd dose in 3 months. It's not cheap. With a goodrx.com coupon, it's $155 per shot without insurance. I had insurance and got it for free.

If you want reliable medical information, go here: https://medlineplus.gov/ (where I found the above quoted information). Notice the .gov extension. "MedlinePlus is a service of the National Library of Medicine (NLM), the world's largest medical library, which is part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Our mission is to present high-quality, relevant health and wellness information that is trusted, easy to understand, and free of advertising, in both English and Spanish. Anywhere, anytime, on any device-for free."

Back to our regularly scheduled program...

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Lyondell Chemical: LYO (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 208 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AFL, APD, ATSG, DOX, AEL, AXP, ABC, APH, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AIZ, ATO, AVY, AXS, BMI, BCPC, BLL, BBBY, BERY, BIO, BRC, BMY, BG, CBT, CACI, CALM, CPB, CE, CNC, CNP, CHKP, CINF, CNO, CL, ED, CLR, GLW, CRH, CCK, CMI, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DUK, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EQT, RE, EVH, XOM, FDS, FIS, FEYE, FISV, FCX, FRD, GPS, GNW, EVRG, HBI, HE, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, ITW, INFN, NSP, ITGR, IPAR, IPG, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, LHX, LAWS, LLY, LNC, L, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MLM, MDCA, MSFT, MOS, MYGN, ^IXIC, NFG, NJR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NOC, ORI, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PTEN, PDLI, PRFT, PNW, PPG, PPL, PFG, PRU, KWR, RL, RJF, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SO, SR, SXI, TGT, TFX, TMO, TJX, TRV, TG, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VFC, VMI, VMC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WLK, WEX, WMB, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IDU, DDM, FXL, FXI, ICF, IYH, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWA, ECH, EWQ, EIS, IBB, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, SSO, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 12/14/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I drew the top red line so I could see the throwback at A and see how close it was to the line.

After the top line, I drew the bottom one (B). The line slopes upward and together with the top line, it forms an ascending triangle.

Notice that peak C doesn't touch the top trendline, but it comes close. Maybe not as close as I like to see, but I think it qualifies as a touch. I like to see three touches of one trendline and two of the other, at a minimum for correctly identified patterns.

Let's return to the throwback at A. Because the index hasn't touched the top line yet, there's still more room for the index to drop. That might not happen. It's close enough now to say it tried to reach the trendline. In fact, if the index rebounds from here, it might rise farther than if it does touch the trendline.

My guess is the index will drop far enough to close the distance from the top trendline and then rebound.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 72 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ALKS, AYX, ABC, ADP, BBBY, BKH, BRC, BBW, CALM, CNC, CNP, CL, GLW, ^DJI, D, DTE, EOG, EFX, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FIS, FWRD, FRD, GILD, EVRG, GFF, HL, HSY, IDA, INFN, NSP, JNJ, LZB, MRO, MDCA, MGEE, NJR, NI, OLN, POR, RL, REV, RCKY, SCCO, SWN, SR, TGT, TPX, RIG, WAT, WU, IDU, ICF, SLV, EWM, EWL, TUR, PBE, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/11/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AA, ALKS, AEP, AMN, ANIK, APA, AVA, BLL, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BIIB, BKH, BRC, BMY, CACI, CNC, CNP, CIEN, CLF, CTSH, CAG, COP, CCRN, DRQ, EOG, EFX, RE, XOM, FDS, FICO, FFG, FDX, FE, FORM, GPN, GL, HSC, HTLD, HL, HP, HSY, HOLX, HUBG, INFN, NSP, ITGR, TILE, JCOM, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LLY, L, LXU, MTRN, MGEE, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NEE, NUS, OGE, ORI, OUT, OXM, PANW, PCG, PINC, DGX, RNG, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SAIA, SWX, SWN, SRDX, TGT, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VRTX, V, WAT, WERN, WLK, ITA, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IDU, FXL, ICF, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWC, EEM, EWH, EPP, THD, PXJ, IXC, SSO, GLD, SPY, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 34 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 5.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 12/10/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew a trendline connecting valleys. It's not the way to draw a trendline to detect trend changes, but it suffices for what I'm looking for. I'm talking about line B, by the way.

The index at C began a pattern that's called a measured move down. Some Elliott wave surfers might think of this as an ABC correction or a corrective wave.

The thinking behind a measured move down, is that leg D (and onward down) will equal the CA move. Right now, price might follow the blue line down, after D, ending near the bottom of the chart, just below 12,100 (I drew it in a bit long).

Since we're on the intraday scale, the index might climb tomorrow. My guess is that the jobs numbers will be enough to rattle the markets and send it lower, at least for a time.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AXDX, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, ALK, AA, ALKS, ANIK, AAPL, ARCB, ARW, ADSK, ADP, BCPC, BLL, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BIO, BKH, BAH, BRC, BMY, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CNC, CNP, CENX, CIEN, CLX, CTSH, ED, CSOD, CROX, CCK, CMI, DVN, ^DJU, D, RE, FFIV, FDX, FE, FLEX, FORM, GME, GPS, GPN, GS, GPRO, GES, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HE, HL, HELE, HSIC, HUBG, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, INFN, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, K, KSS, KLIC, LH, LAWS, LLY, LOW, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MGEE, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NTGR, NWL, NEU, NKE, NWPX, NUS, OXY, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PYPL, PFE, PICO, DGX, RL, RMBS, ROK, RCKY, ROG, ^GSPC, SAIA, SEE, NOW, SWX, SR, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TMO, TOL, TREX, VRSN, VRTX, V, WMT, WAT, WERN, WU, WEX, ITA, IYK, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEO, IDU, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IGV, SLV, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EZA, IBB, PBE, PHO, IXN, SSO, XLE, GLD, XLB, SPY, XLU, UNG, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/9/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice that the CPI is trending lower. I show that downtrend at A.

Compare that slope to the one at B, on the index. They diverge. That divergence is bearish. The idea with divergence is that sooner or later, price will follow the indicator. Keep in mind that the two can diverge for months and it can be wrong, too.

Look at the two deep purple lines at C. They diverged and the index continued higher. Of course, divergence lasted into late August, and finally (lighter purple lines), the index dropped meaningfully in September.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement this week compared to last week.

There's no divergence on this chart, at least recently. I guess that's expected because these two lines just follow the indices's trend.

So this week we have a bearish chart and a bullish one. I'll let you decide which is correct. My vote goes to the CPI chart, but as I mentioned, you might not see a downturn for a while.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AEIS, ALL, DOX, ABC, AMN, APH, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, AVY, BAX, BECN, BIO, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BMY, CDNS, CALM, CENX, CHKP, CHD, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CONN, CSOD, GLW, CR, CROX, CCRN, EMN, EMR, EFX, RE, XOM, FDS, FICO, FDX, FOE, FEYE, FIVN, FLIR, FTNT, FDP, GE, GS, GGG, THG, HIG, HL, HSII, HSIC, HON, INFN, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, LAWS, LDOS, L, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MDT, MYGN, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NEU, NEE, JWN, OXY, ORI, OMC, PKE, PFE, POL, POR, PGR, QCOM, RL, RJF, ROK, SAIC, SMG, SIGI, SCCO, SRDX, TGT, TDC, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TRV, TG, VC, WAT, WU, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DDM, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IHF, IYZ, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, THD, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLP, XLE, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, SMH, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/8/20. Slider Trading Quiz! Lam Research

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Lam Research: LRCX (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 88 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, AES, AFL, ATSG, ABC, AMN, APH, AON, ATR, AGO, AVA, BMI, BECN, BBBY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BRC, BG, CBT, CX, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, ED, CONN, CLR, CCRN, DHR, EXP, RE, FDS, FWRD, FDP, GPRO, EVRG, GFF, HLIT, HTLD, HSY, INCY, INFN, IIIN, KBAL, LMT, LXU, MTSI, MCHX, MRTN, MRK, MOS, MYGN, NBR, NEU, NWPX, OXY, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PFE, PICO, PGR, RGS, RGA, SSYS, TPR, VRTX, WDAY, IYK, IYE, IEO, FXL, FXI, ECH, EIS, THD, PXJ, PJP, IXC, IXN, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 12/7/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I had in mind to show you the Nasdaq composite but pulled up this chart instead. I haven't lost my mind. I know exactly where I left it.

Let's go through the chart, starting from the left.

The twin bottom at E is a double bottom. It has two valleys which bottom near the same price. It confirms as a valid double bottom when the index closes above the highest peak between the two bottoms.

Peaks DC are a double top. The twin peaks top out near the same price and it is supposed to confirm as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below valley A. I drew a horizontal brown line but it's hard to tell if price closed below the line or not.

AB is another double bottom. The two bottoms are not at the same price, so that's a flaw. It confirms as a valid pattern when price closes above the blue line.

More recently are the two up-sloping red lines highlighting a rising wedge. Rising wedges breakout downward 60% of the time. That's not much above random.

This wedge has price touching the trendlines plenty of times, but it also looks loose, not tight. That means there's not a lot of overlap between the price bars. I did a study of overlap and showed that flags (I think) with lots of overlap outperformed.

This one looks like it might breakout upward.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Mutual funds will begin dividend distributions and rebalancing their portfolios for the approaching year end (starts in late November).

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, AMN, APH, ANTM, APA, ATR, ACGL, ARW, ASH, ATO, AXS, BIG, BKH, BRC, CBT, COG, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, ED, CONN, CLR, GLW, COST, CRH, CTS, DVN, DOV, EOG, EL, RE, EXC, XOM, FDS, FCX, THG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HSIC, HNI, INFN, IBP, IIIN, IPG, IPI, KALU, KMT, LANC, LNC, L, LXU, MRO, MAS, MRK, MUR, NBR, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NEU, NEE, OXY, ORI, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PFE, PICO, PLXS, POL, PFG, RJF, RGS, RGA, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SEIC, SO, SCCO, SRDX, TECH, TFX, TKR, TG, SLCA, UPS, UNM, V, WAT, WWW, WDAY, ZBRA, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, FTEC, BOTZ, IYZ, IGE, IYF, EWO, EEM, EWH, EWI, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWT, EWU, PXJ, IEV, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 12/4/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 141 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, ADTN, AMD, AES, ALRM, ALK, ALB, ALKS, ADS, DOX, AEO, APH, AMAT, AIZ, BBBY, BIIB, BKH, BA, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CPB, CE, CENX, CRL, CIEN, CTSH, CMCO, CONN, COTY, CMI, DECK, DVN, D, DOV, EXP, RE, EVH, FDS, FOE, FIS, FEYE, FCX, FDP, FRD, GNW, GES, HBI, THG, HLIT, HE, HQY, HTLD, HL, HD, INTU, IVC, JKHY, LH, LAWS, LEN, LLY, LXU, MHO, MCHX, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MU, MCO, MUR, NTGR, NWPX, PKG, PKE, PATK, PRFT, PETS, PFE, PCG, PICO, PNW, PFG, PG, RL, RGA, REV, SAIA, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SXI, TPR, TEVA, TOL, UGI, UPS, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WRB, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWW, XLNX, FXL, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, ILF, XLF, XRT, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 579 stocks searched, or 4.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 12/3/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew three trendlines, shown here in red, A, B, and C. Notice that they are getting steeper and shorter.

They remind me of fan lines. I looked into them once but they didn't make a lot of sense to me, so I didn't pursue them. (Fan lines are not covered on my website... I checked). You might say I'm not a fan of fan lines. To me, fan lines make as much sense as taking the width, not the height, of a rectangle and projecting it upward from the top of the pattern and claiming that's the price target. Anyway, I digress.

The blue line forms a small ascending triangle, with a flat top and up-sloping bottom. Ascending triangles breakout upward 63% of the time. That's almost 2 of every 3 trades.

Of course, that statistics comes from patterns on the daily charts. With intraday data like you see here, the opening bell can throw the index around a lot, so there's no telling what will happen.

Today was a weak day which saw the CPI (Chart Pattern Indicator) drop. The entire market looked weak to me, so I'd be cautious about expecting that upward breakout.

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Here's a symbol list of 104 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AFL, DOX, AXP, AIG, ANTM, ARW, BCPC, BSET, BKH, BA, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CPB, CLS, CNP, CENX, CRL, CVX, CHS, ED, CSOD, GLW, CTS, DDS, ^DJT, EXP, RE, EXC, XOM, FAST, FIS, FE, FRD, GE, GL, HE, HTLD, HP, HON, HUBG, INCY, JKHY, LH, RAMP, LOW, LXU, MHO, MCO, NOV, NTAP, NVDA, OGE, ORI, PATK, PDCO, PFE, PICO, POR, PG, PRU, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, ROK, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SLGN, LUV, SSYS, TECH, TEVA, TG, SLCA, VLO, VRTX, WAT, WERN, WLK, WWW, ITA, IYE, FXI, IHF, IGV, IGE, IYF, EWC, EWY, EWP, EWT, PPA, IXC, XLE, XLF, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 12/2/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Much to my surprise, the index didn't fall and issue a bearish signal. Rather, the index climbed and took the general market with it. The CPI responded by soaring, as the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart shows.

The index broke out upward from an ascending triangle (shown here in what looks to be black but is really blue). The breakout wasn't a robust one where price shoots off. Rather, it looked like a doji candle.

That means the index closed near where it opened. It could mean underlying softness in the market, but not by the number of industries moving up today. I'm starting to rethink my position that covid news over the next 2 weeks will suck the markets lower. Guess I'll have to wait to find out for sure.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The two lines, the red and blue ones, made no net progress as measured from a week ago. I wonder if that's another signal that there's underlying weakness in the markets.

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Here's a symbol list of 179 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, ALRM, AA, AEE, AIG, AMGN, AON, APA, AMAT, ACGL, ASH, AIZ, AGO, AXS, BKH, BKNG, EPAY, BRC, CBT, CALM, CX, CNC, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHS, CINF, CNA, CNO, CMTL, COP, COTY, CRH, CCK, CTS, DECK, DVN, DRQ, EXP, EMN, EIX, WIRE, EOG, RE, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLIR, FRD, GIS, GL, GFF, THG, HSC, HIG, HSII, HELE, HNI, DHI, IDA, IEX, ITW, ILMN, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IPAR, KALU, KSS, LRCX, LAWS, L, LOW, LXU, MAN, MCHX, MLM, MCO, MUR, NOV, NCR, NJR, ORI, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PETS, PFE, POR, PPG, PPL, PGR, RGA, RLI, RHI, ROK, SCHW, SEIC, SIGI, SLGN, SO, LUV, SWN, SXI, TER, TXN, TKR, TOL, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VFC, V, VMC, WRB, WLK, WWW, IYM, IYC, IYE, IHI, IEZ, IHE, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWT, TUR, EWU, QLD, PPA, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLV, XHB, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 12/1/20. 2020 Forecast Update for December

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Here's the updated 2020 forecast for December, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 30 November 2020 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

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Here's a symbol list of 123 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AKAM, ALKS, AEE, AEL, AMWD, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ASH, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BIG, BKH, BAH, CNC, CNP, CSCO, CMTL, ED, COP, GLW, COST, CRH, CROX, DVN, DDS, DRQ, DUK, EIX, EIGI, EQT, RE, EXC, FEYE, FRD, GME, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HL, HSII, DHI, HURC, ITW, INTC, IPI, JAZZ, KMB, LEG, LNC, LMT, LOW, MRO, MTRX, NJR, OXY, OGE, ASGN, OMI, PTEN, PFE, PNW, PPL, RMBS, RJF, RGS, REV, RLI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, SEE, SMTC, SKX, SO, SWN, TPR, TDOC, TMO, TJX, TOL, VFC, WRB, WMT, ITA, IAI, IYE, IHE, FXL, BOTZ, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EZA, EWP, EWL, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, XLF, XRT, XAR, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski