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As of 02/20/2019
  Industrials: 25,954 +63.12 +0.2%
  Transports: 10,627 +9.81 +0.1%
  Utilities: 746 +2.71 +0.4%
  Nasdaq: 7,489 +2.30 +0.0%
  S&P 500: 2,785 +4.94 +0.2%
YTD
+11.3%
+15.9%
+4.6%
+12.9%
+11.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 02/14/2019
26,000 or 24,600 by 03/01/2019
10,900 or 9,900 by 03/01/2019
755 or 725 by 03/01/2019
7,700 or 7,050 by 03/01/2019
2,825 or 2,650 by 03/01/2019

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

Updated on 1/24/19.

This article compares the performance of chart patterns over the decades. Do chart patterns perform worse or better now than in decades past? Let's find out.

 

Time Performance: Up Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median rises from the breakout to the ultimate high.

 

Up Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s Rank 1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD, bearish42%44%43%1422%25%22%
AB=CD, bullish38%43%36%2820%24%19%
Bat, bearish42%50%38%2222%31%24%
Bat, bullish43%55%42%1626%24%26%
Big W44%52%46%930%31%28%
Broadening bottom41%45%45%1120%21%25%
Broadening top40%47%34%3223%26%15%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending39%50%34%3225%25%19%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending34%53%36%2823%28%18%
Broadening wedge, ascending44%43%41%1730%29%18%
Broadening wedge, descending41%44%38%2226%30%24%
Bump-and-run reversal bottom44%67%65%127%47%47%
Butterfly, bearish44%50%43%1429%29%23%
Butterfly, bullish49%*44%31%3727%26%18%
Crab, bearish41%45%45%1124%28%28%
Crab, bullish42%*35%*48%*824%*30%*41%*
Cup with handle49%54%55%632%36%37%
Diamond bottom45%39%40%1934%25%19%
Diamond top24%37%29%3819%26%12%
Double bottom, Adam & Adam45%62%35%3126%29%17%
Double bottom, Adam & Eve44%49%33%3626%32%14%
Double bottom, Eve & Adam39%49%36%2825%32%21%
Double bottom, Eve & Eve43%58%37%2622%35%18%
Diving board91%56%58%445%37%38%
Flags**14%12%6%399%7%4%
Flags, high and tight43%37%34%3222%27%17%
Head-and-shoulders bottoms45%46%44%1330%31%23%
Head-and-shoulders bottoms, complex41%45%62%229%28%35%
Horn bottom55%70%49%728%39%29%
Island bottoms26%30%37%2611%19%11%
Island, long29%35%34%3213%23%16%
Measured move down41%52%40%1923%28%18%
Measured move up36%50%38%2219%28%16%
Pennants**10%7%4%408%5%3%
Pipe bottom53%60%46%928%35%27%
Rectangle bottoms48%52%40%1927%28%18%
Rectangle Tops55%59%38%2231%32%18%
Rounding bottom55%66%56%536%41%39%
Rounding top53%78%60%333%41%43%
Scallop, ascending38%54%41%1725%36%27%
* Measure uses 30 samples or fewer, so results may be inaccurate.
** Measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the very short-term tend end (approximately the closest minor high or low).

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Time Performance: Down Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median declines from the breakout to the ultimate low.

Down Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average Rise2010sMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s Rank 1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD, bearish14%13%12%2611%9%8%
AB=CD, bullish15%13%14%1911%8%10%
Bat, bearish16%12%12%2614%11%7%
Bat, bullish18%13%17%714%7%14%
Big M19%15%16%817%13%13%
Broadening bottom17%13%16%815%10%10%
Broadening top16%13%13%2313%9%8%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending16%13%14%1911%9%9%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending16%13%16%814%10%11%
Broadening wedge, ascending17%11%13%2313%8%8%
Broadening wedge, descending17%12%14%1913%8%10%
Bump-and-run reversal top19%18%19%117%15%15%
Butterfly, bearish14%12%16%89%9%9%
Butterfly, bullish18%16%*16%816%12%12%
Crab, bearish17%22%*15%1616%16%*9%
Crab, bullish16%13%*16%813%9%*12%
Cup with handle, inverted17%16%19%114%15%13%
Diamond bottom23%14%15%1622%12%11%
Diamond top20%15%14%1918%12%10%
Double top, Adam & Adam16%13%12%2613%10%8%
Double top, Adam & Eve17%13%11%3214%10%8%
Double top, Eve & Adam15%12%12%2613%9%9%
Double top, Eve & Eve16%13%10%3513%11%7%
Flags*11%8%6%369%7%5%
Head-and-shoulders tops20%14%15%1617%11%10%
Head-and-shoulders tops, complex20%13%16%818%9%11%
Horn tops19%18%19%116%14%15%
Island, long17%13%13%2314%11%9%
Island tops14%15%12%2610%11%8%
Measured move down13%12%11%329%8%8%
Measured move up13%13%11%3210%9%8%
Pennants**9%6%5%376%4%3%
Pipe top20%18%18%417%14%14%
Rectangle bottoms15%14%18%412%10%12%
Rectangle Tops16%10%12%2615%7%7%
Rounding top21%16%18%420%13%15%
Scallop, descending15%13%16%812%11%12%

* Measure uses 30 samples or fewer, so results may be inaccurate.

** Measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the very short-term tend end (approximately the closest minor high or low).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

Written by and copyright © 2005-2019 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners. If God had wanted us to be naked, we would have been born that way.