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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Time Performance

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Busted
Patterns
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Patterns
Small Patterns
Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 11/21/2017
23,591 160.50 0.7%
9,615 92.77 1.0%
758 2.01 0.3%
6,862 71.77 1.1%
2,599 16.89 0.7%
YTD
19.4%
6.3%
14.9%
27.5%
16.1%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 11/14/2017
23,700 or 22,800 by 12/01/2017
9,300 or 9,800 by 12/01/2017
800 or 750 by 12/01/2017
7,000 or 6,500 by 12/01/2017
2,625 or 2,540 by 12/01/2017

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

This article compares the performance of chart patterns over the decades. Do chart patterns perform worse or better now than in decades past? Let's find out.

Obviously, the tables are incomplete. I'll populate them with more information as I complete my research. It often takes a week or two per pattern, so it'll be a sloooow roll out.

 

Time Performance: Up Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median rises from the breakout to the ultimate high.

 

Up Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average RiseMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  1990s  2000s  2010s 
Broadening bottom41%45%45%20%21%25%
Broadening top40%47%34%23%26%15%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending39%50%34%25%25%19%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending34%52%35%23%27%18%

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Time Performance: Down Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median declines from the breakout to the ultimate low.

Down Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average DropMedian Drop
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  1990s  2000s  2010s 
Big M19%15%16%17%13%13%
Broadening bottom17%13%16%15%10%10%
Broadening top16%13%13%13%9%8%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending16%13%14%11%9%9%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending16%14%16%13%11%11%

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. If God had wanted us to be naked, we would have been born that way.