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Thomas Bulkowski’s successful investment activities allowed him to retire at age 36. He is an internationally known author and trader with 30+ years of stock market experience and widely regarded as a leading expert on chart patterns. He may be reached at

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Bulkowski's Time Performance

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Busted
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Market
Industrials (^DJI):
Transports (^DJT):
Utilities (^DJU):
Nasdaq (^IXIC):
S&P500 (^GSPC):
As of 06/22/2018
24,581 119.19 0.5%
10,773 -53.64 -0.5%
697 5.98 0.9%
7,693 -20.13 -0.3%
2,755 5.12 0.2%
YTD
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1.5%
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11.4%
3.0%
Tom's Targets    Overview: 06/14/2018
25,750 or 24,500 by 07/01/2018
11,350 or 10,600 by 07/01/2018
695 or 645 by 07/01/2018
8,000 or 7,500 by 07/01/2018
2,850 or 2,700 by 07/01/2018

Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners.

This article compares the performance of chart patterns over the decades. Do chart patterns perform worse or better now than in decades past? Let's find out.

Obviously, the tables are incomplete. I'll populate them with more information as I complete my research. It often takes a week or two per pattern, so it'll be a sloooow roll out.

Updated with new statistics on 6/21/18.

 

Time Performance: Up Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median rises from the breakout to the ultimate high.

 

Up Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average RiseMedian Rise
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD, bearish42%44%43%22%25%22%
AB=CD, bullish38%43%36%20%24%19%
Big W44%52%46%30%31%28%
Broadening bottom41%45%45%20%21%25%
Broadening top40%47%34%23%26%15%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending39%50%34%25%25%19%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending34%53%36%23%28%18%
Butterfly, bearish43%50%43%28%29%23%
Butterfly, bullish47%44%31%27%26%18%
Diving board91%56%58%45%37%38%
Measured move down41%52%40%23%28%18%
Measured move up36%50%38%19%28%16%

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Time Performance: Down Breakouts

The following table shows the average and median declines from the breakout to the ultimate low.

Down Breakouts: Bull Market Performance Over Decades
 Average DropMedian Drop
Chart Pattern 1990s  2000s  2010s  1990s  2000s  2010s 
AB=CD, bearish14%13%12%11%9%8%
AB=CD, bullish15%13%14%11%8%10%
Big M19%15%16%17%13%13%
Broadening bottom17%13%16%15%10%10%
Broadening top16%13%13%13%9%8%
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending16%13%14%11%9%9%
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending16%13%16%14%10%11%
Butterfly, bearish14%12%16%10%9%9%
Butterfly, bullish18%16%16%15%12%12%
Measured move down13%12%11%9%8%8%
Measured move up13%13%11%10%9%8%

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Written by and copyright © 2005-2018 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information. Some pattern names are the registered trademarks of their respective owners. If God had wanted us to be naked, we would have been born that way.