As of 09/18/2020
Indus: 27,657 244.56 0.9%
Trans: 11,432 120.44 1.0%
Utils: 798 12.86 1.6%
Nasdaq: 10,793 117.00 1.1%
S&P 500: 3,319 37.54 1.1%

YTD
3.1%
+4.9%
9.2%
+20.3%
+2.7%

29,400 or 26,700 by 10/01/2020
11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020

As of 09/18/2020
Indus: 27,657 244.56 0.9%
Trans: 11,432 120.44 1.0%
Utils: 798 12.86 1.6%
Nasdaq: 10,793 117.00 1.1%
S&P 500: 3,319 37.54 1.1%

YTD
3.1%
+4.9%
9.2%
+20.3%
+2.7%
 
29,400 or 26,700 by 10/01/2020
11,750 or 10,600 by 10/01/2020
845 or 775 by 10/01/2020
11,800 or 10,400 by 10/01/2020
3,600 or 3,200 by 10/01/2020
 
Initial release: 6/28/2018. Statistics updated 8/28/2020.
This article describes my analysis of the bullish bat pattern as described by publicly available information and common sense rules to determine valid patterns. Additional rules may or may not improve performance. I tested the pattern using only the below identification guidelines.
The bullish bat often resembles a big M chart pattern except that the turns are located using Fibonacci ratios. It's very rare, and you'll need a computer with pattern recognition software to fine it.
Once price reaches the bottom of the pattern at point D, it reverses 91% of the time.
Important Bull Market ResultsOverall performance rank for upward moves: 1 (best) out of 5 (versus other Fibonacci patterns only)
Break even failure rate: 10%
Average rise: 44%
Percentage reversing at point D: 91%
The above numbers are based on 259 perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions. 
Characteristic  Discussion 
Bullish Bat Ratios

Peaks/Valleys  The peaks and valleys in the pattern need not be consecutive. This is not a guideline, but an observation.  
XAB  Price drops to valley X, the first point in the pattern. It rises from there to A and retraces to B. The AB/AX retrace should be either 38.2% or 50%.  
ABC  Turn ABC shows a CB/AB retrace of one of the following Fibonacci ratios: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 70.7%, 78.6% or 88.6%.  
BCD  Extension CD/CB is one of the following Fibonacci ratios: 161.8%, 200%, 224% or 261.8%.  
XAD  Retrace AD/AX is 88.6%. 
Find five peaks/valleys where the ratio of one leg to another is one of the Fibonacci numbers listed in the above table. However, I used a 3 percentage point window on the last ratio (88.6% becomes 85.6% to 91.6%) to keep the sample count high.
I don't offer much trading help because I'm new to this pattern.
My tests of this pattern revealed that the turn rate at point D is 91%.
Price rises to C 64% of the time, to B 86% of the time, and to A 58% of the time.
The figure on the right shows an example of a bullish bat pattern, XABCD.
Here are the high/low prices of the various turns
Here are the ratios.
AB/AX = (21.3619.36)/(21.3616.60) or 42.0%. However the highlow range of B (20.2619.36) encompasses the 38.2% retrace, so I allow it.
CB/AB = (20.8519.36)/(21.3619.36) or 74.5%. However the highlow range of C (20.85 to 20.50) encompasses the 70.7% retrace, so I allow this.
CD/CB = (20.8517.22)/(20.8519.36) or 243.6%. However, the highlow range of D (18.66 to 17.22) encompasses the 161% retrace, so it's allowed.
AD/AX = (21.3617.22)/(21.3616.60) or 87.0% which is within three percentage points of 88.6%, so it's allowed.
After price makes a higher low at D (compared to X), the stock recovers. It closes above A and stages an upward breakout. The ultimate high is 22.00. From the low at D, the rise measures (2217.22)/17.22 or 28%. That's a nice gain providing you buy at the low at D and sell at the ultimate high at 22.
 Thomas Bulkowski
See Also

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