Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/27/2022
  Indus: 29,135 -125.82 -0.4%  
  Trans: 12,153 +153.95 +1.3%  
  Utils: 934 -19.25 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,830 +26.58 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,647 -7.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-19.8%  
-26.2%  
-4.7%  
-30.8%  
-23.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow990 or 900 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/13/22
As of 09/27/2022
  Indus: 29,135 -125.82 -0.4%  
  Trans: 12,153 +153.95 +1.3%  
  Utils: 934 -19.25 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,830 +26.58 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,647 -7.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-19.8%  
-26.2%  
-4.7%  
-30.8%  
-23.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow990 or 900 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/13/22

May 2022 Headlines

Archives


Tuesday 5/31/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 1.8% or 575.77 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 115 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 68 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 47 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 59.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 247/438 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/97 or 48.5% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Semtech: SMTC stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 185 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, APD, AKAM, AEE, AEP, AEL, AMN, APA, AMAT, ATR, ADSK, AVY, AVA, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BZH, BERY, BIO, BFH, BG, CDNS, CE, CLS, CLF, CMCO, CMTL, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, DHR, ^DJU, D, DTE, BOOM, EXP, EBAY, EOG, EFX, EL, EVH, FDS, FE, FTNT, FCX, IT, GNW, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, HLIT, HOLX, HURC, IDA, IDXX, ITGR, IPI, NVTA, JKHY, JAZZ, K, KELYA, KLAC, LRCX, L, MTSI, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MTRX, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MS, MUR, ^IXIC, NFG, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, NEE, NKE, NI, NOC, NVDA, OGE, OMCL, OTEX, OMI, PANW, PAYX, POR, PGR, PEG, KWR, QCOM, REV, RLI, ROK, ^GSPC, NOW, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SWN, SR, SRDX, SNPS, TDC, TXN, TJX, TSCO, TZOO, VEEV, VMC, WEX, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYC, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IGV, SOXX, IHI, EWA, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, QLD, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, MXI, XLY, XHB, XLI, XLB, SPY, XLK, XLU, USO, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,173.51    
 Weekly S2  30,749.36  1,575.85   
 Monthly S1  31,193.23  443.88   
 Weekly S1  31,981.16  787.93   
 Daily S2  32,504.59  523.43   
 Weekly Pivot  32,597.39  92.80   
 Monthly Pivot  32,655.49  58.10   
 Low  32,682.01  26.52   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Open  32,735.09  53.08   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  32,858.77  123.68   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,885.09  26.31   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,947.82  62.73   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,010.55  62.73   
 Daily Pivot  33,036.20  25.65   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,212.96  176.77   
 High  33,213.62  0.66   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  33,390.38  176.76   
 Daily R2  33,567.81  177.43   
 Weekly R1  33,829.19  261.38   
 Weekly R2  34,445.42  616.23   
 Monthly R1  34,675.21  229.79   
 Monthly R2  36,137.46  1,462.25   

Friday 5/27/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 236 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AMD, ALL, AYX, AEE, AEO, AEL, AMN, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, AVY, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BZH, BERY, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BBW, BLDR, BG, CDNS, CALM, CX, CNP, CHS, CHD, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNO, CONN, COP, CLR, GLW, COST, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CTS, DECK, XRAY, DVN, ^DJT, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EIX, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FCX, GME, GPS, GPN, GS, GGG, GES, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HP, HOV, JBHT, IEX, IDXX, INFN, ITGR, INTC, IPI, ISRG, JKHY, JBLU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KLIC, LZB, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, LNC, RAMP, L, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MLKN, MCO, MS, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NOC, NVDA, OXY, ORI, OLN, OXM, PKG, PANW, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PPG, PPL, PGR, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RLI, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SHW, SKX, SCCO, SWN, SSYS, SUM, TPR, TPX, TDC, TKR, TJX, TSCO, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UGI, VFC, VEEV, VRTX, WRB, WAT, WU, WLK, WMB, WSM, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IAT, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, ECH, EEM, EIS, EWM, EWP, EWL, QLD, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PHO, IXC, IXN, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XHB, XRT, XLK, USO, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ANFDead-cat bounce      05/24/202205/24/2022Apparel
AYIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/24/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
AJRDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022Diversified Co.
AAV Bottom Extension      05/05/202205/26/2022Aerospace/Defense
AELPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Insurance (Life)
AXPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022Financial Services
APAHorn bottom      04/25/202205/09/2022Petroleum (Producing)
ARWDouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/09/202205/17/2022Electronics
ADPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022IT Services
CNADouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/19/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
COPUgly double bottom      04/27/202205/12/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
DDSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/04/202205/17/2022Retail Store
EMNHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202205/20/2022Chemical (Diversified)
EIXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/19/2022Electric Utility (West)
EPAMTriangle, symmetrical      04/27/202205/26/2022IT Services
FICOPipe bottom      05/02/202205/09/2022IT Services
FCXPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
GMEFlag, high and tight      05/12/202205/26/2022Retail (Special Lines)
GSHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202205/20/2022Securities Brokerage
GGGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/19/2022Machinery
HSIIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      04/27/202205/16/2022Human Resources
HOVDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/24/2022Homebuilding
INCYDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/09/202205/19/2022Drug
IIINHead-and-shoulders top      04/21/202205/18/2022Building Materials
ITGRPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Electronics
INTUPennant      05/13/202205/24/2022Computer Software and Svcs
JKHYThree Falling Peaks      08/18/202109/27/2021IT Services
LEGHead-and-shoulders bottom      02/24/202205/12/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LENDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/11/202205/24/2022Homebuilding
LTriangle, ascending      04/26/202205/26/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
MAPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Financial Services
MUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/27/202205/12/2022Semiconductor
MCODouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/19/2022Information Services
MSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022Securities Brokerage
MURPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
NBRPipe bottom      05/09/202205/09/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/25/202205/20/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ORITriangle, ascending      04/29/202205/26/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PANWPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Computer Software and Svcs
PPLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/02/202205/10/2022Electric Utility (East)
PGRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/28/202205/12/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
PHMDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      05/11/202205/24/2022Homebuilding
ROSTDead-cat bounce      05/20/202205/20/2022Retail (Special Lines)
SLBDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      04/25/202205/10/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SREHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202205/20/2022Electric Utility (West)
SOTriangle, symmetrical      04/28/202205/18/2022Electric Utility (East)
SCCOPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
SWNPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
TXNTriangle, symmetrical      04/27/202205/25/2022Semiconductor
TOLDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/24/2022Homebuilding
VFCHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202205/25/2022Apparel
VPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Financial Services

 

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Thursday 5/26/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 1.5% or 170.29 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 119 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 71 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.3% on 48 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 59.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 237/420 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/133 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum on the daily.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Ethereum on the daily scale.

I couldn't fit the recent peak on the chart but it rang the bell at 4891 and change. The recent low was 2172, for a tidy decline of 56%. Those of you who own the cryptocurrency have given back more than half of your paper profit.

Look at the drop at A. The currency left the trendline and dropped lower (to A) for a time before returning to the trendline. The same pattern is happening again, at B. History, at least point A, suggests a continued downward move (the currency dropped after A, so why not after B?).

However, if it can close above the blue trendline, it has a chance of rising as much as the green line shows (off the chart). That's a substantial recovery that is perhaps unrealistic.

I found that using the measure rule for trendlines. The height of the drop (to the January low) added to the breakout suggests how far up the currency might rise.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, AXDX, ADBE, AEIS, AEO, AEL, AMWD, AMN, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, BAX, BZH, BERY, BIG, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BG, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CE, CX, CHS, CLF, CNO, CONN, COTY, CCRN, DDS, DFS, EXP, EMN, EQT, FICO, FIS, FORM, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GPS, GPN, GPRO, GFF, THG, HTLD, HL, HOV, IBP, ITGR, IBKR, IPI, JKHY, KBH, K, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, KSS, LRCX, LEG, RAMP, MHO, MTSI, MAN, MCHX, MAS, MA, MTRX, MCO, MS, MUR, NOV, CNR, NCR, NKE, JWN, NOC, NWPX, ORI, OLN, OXM, PANW, PNW, PPL, PINC, PEG, KWR, RCKY, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SWN, SCS, TJX, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VFC, VLO, WEX, XEL, IAI, IYC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IAT, IGV, EWZ, EWC, EIS, EWM, EWS, EZA, EWP, IXN, ILF, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,385.37    
 Monthly S1  10,410.05  1,024.69   
 Weekly S2  10,533.55  123.49   
 Weekly S1  10,984.14  450.60   
 Daily S2  11,086.11  101.97   
 Low  11,211.85  125.74   
 Open  11,225.03  13.18   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  11,260.43  35.40   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,326.47  66.04   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,361.88  35.41   
 Daily Pivot  11,386.16  24.29   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,397.28  11.12   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  11,434.74  37.46   
 Weekly Pivot  11,486.29  51.55   
 High  11,511.90  25.61   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R1  11,560.48  48.58   
 Daily R2  11,686.21  125.74   
 Weekly R1  11,936.88  250.67   
 Monthly Pivot  12,060.38  123.49   
 Weekly R2  12,439.03  378.65   
 Monthly R1  13,085.06  646.04   
 Monthly R2  14,735.39  1,650.32   

Wednesday 5/25/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The white vertical bars are neutral, meaning the indicator is between bullish and bearish signals. It's been neutral for almost two weeks now. It looks like the market is searching for a bottom.

If you look back to March, the indicator showed a number of neutral bars congested followed by a recovery in the index. So that's a hint of what we can expect, I think.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 63% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 55%.
The fewest was 11% on 06/15/2021.
And the most was 65% on 05/11/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 456 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 9% on 06/08/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 05/11/2022.

This week the red and blue lines dropped again when compared to a week ago.

This chart doesn't show any sign of recovery (it remains bearish) compared to the neutral stance of the CPI chart. What does this mean? My feeling is that we're a lot closer to the bottom than to the top. Sooner or later we're going to see a reversal of the downtrend. I don't know when that will be. This downturn (from the January peak) was unexpected by me and of course, I didn't expect higher inflation or a war. I'm still bullish. I'm just ignoring the falling market because I know it'll recover and that recovery will pull up my portfolio balance.

In my view, the worst thing you can do now is sell.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACIW, ALK, ALKS, AYX, AMED, AEO, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, AMAT, ARW, AGO, AVNT, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, BOOT, BAH, BBW, CDNS, CALM, CAL, CX, CNC, CIEN, CTXS, CLF, CGNX, CMTL, CCRN, CCK, DDS, DFS, EXP, FIVN, FLEX, FORM, FCX, FRD, GPS, GE, GOOGL, GES, HELE, HSIC, IEX, NSP, ITGR, IPG, IPI, JKHY, JBLU, K, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, LRCX, LNC, RAMP, MANH, MCHX, MA, MTRX, MDC, FB, MU, MCO, MS, MOS, MUR, NWL, NXGN, NOC, OLN, OMC, PANW, PYPL, PETS, PLXS, PPL, RCKY, SEIC, NOW, SKX, SCCO, SWN, SSYS, TPR, TGT, TDC, TXT, TJX, RIG, TZOO, TG, VLO, V, WSO, WMB, WOLF, XEL, IAI, FDN, IYH, IHF, IAT, SOXX, IEO, IYF, EWH, EWM, EWP, EWL, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top


Tuesday 5/24/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 2.0% or 618.34 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 84 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 40 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.1% on 44 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 247/438 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/96 or 49.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Russell: RML stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 87 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AFL, ALKS, ALL, AMED, AEL, AMGN, AMN, APA, ADSK, AVNT, CINF, DFS, ^DJI, DRQ, EMN, EL, RE, EZPW, FICO, FWRD, FCX, GS, HP, DHI, ITGR, IPAR, KALU, KMT, LHX, MAN, MSFT, MS, MYGN, NBR, CNR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NWPX, OGE, OMCL, PKE, PPG, PRU, DGX, SLB, SRE, SCCO, SSYS, TDOC, TXT, TMO, TOL, TG, VMI, VRTX, VC, WMB, WWW, XEL, ITA, IYM, IHE, BOTZ, IGE, EWO, EWZ, EWG, EWJ, EWW, EZA, EWP, EWD, THD, PBE, ILF, MXI, GLD, XLI, UNG, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,812.95    
 Weekly S2  29,681.67  1,868.72   
 Monthly S1  29,846.59  164.93   
 Weekly S1  30,780.95  934.36   
 Daily S2  31,175.65  394.70   
 Low  31,395.89  220.24   
 Open  31,395.89  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  31,527.95  132.06   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,614.60  86.65   
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,682.15  67.56   
 Weekly Pivot  31,735.05  52.89   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  31,748.18  13.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  31,749.71  1.53   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  31,880.24  130.53   
 High  31,968.42  88.18   
 Daily R1  32,100.48  132.06   
 Daily R2  32,320.71  220.24   
 Monthly Pivot  32,669.41  348.69   
 Weekly R1  32,834.33  164.93   
 Weekly R2  33,788.43  954.09   
 Monthly R1  34,703.05  914.63   
 Monthly R2  37,525.87  2,822.81   

Monday 5/23/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the daily chart.

A double top chart pattern appears at AB. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the red line at C.

The measure rule for the pattern, which sets a price target for the drop, succeeded (meaning the Dow dropped far enough to reach the target).

For the year, the Dow is down 14%. From the yearly high, it's down a bit more, 15%. That's short of the bear-market classification of 20% from the high.

What does all of this mean for the next week or longer? With world events pushing around the markets, it's too risky to know. However, the blue trendline suggests the index will find support here and turn upward.


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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 26.76 points.
Tuesday: Up 431.17 points.
Wednesday: Down 1164.52 points.
Thursday: Down 236.94 points.
Friday: Up 8.77 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 934.76 points or 2.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 450.38 points or 3.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 122.53 points or 3.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     15.4% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     2.0% up from the low of 30,635.76 on 05/20/2022.
Nasdaq
     28.4% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     2.9% up from the low of 11,035.69 on 05/20/2022.
S&P 500
     19.0% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     2.4% up from the low of 3,810.32 on 05/20/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,258  30,760  31,138  31,640  32,018 
Weekly  29,476  30,369  31,529  32,422  33,582 
Monthly  27,607  29,434  32,463  34,291  37,320 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,752  3,827  3,885  3,960  4,018 
Weekly  3,654  3,778  3,934  4,058  4,215 
Monthly  3,372  3,637  4,075  4,339  4,777 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  10,798  11,076  11,314  11,593  11,831 
Weekly  10,507  10,931  11,460  11,883  12,412 
Monthly  9,359  10,357  12,034  13,032  14,709 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 121 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACIW, AYI, ALL, AYX, AXP, AFG, AIG, APH, ANIK, APA, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ARW, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BCPC, BBBY, BA, BLDR, BG, CBT, CDNS, CX, CF, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CMCO, CAG, GLW, CROX, CCK, CMI, DECK, D, DRQ, EMN, WIRE, FLEX, GD, GNW, GL, GES, THG, HIG, HP, HON, IDXX, INFN, NSP, ITGR, IPI, IVC, KALU, K, KELYA, KMT, KBAL, KMB, LLY, LMT, MTRN, MU, MS, MOS, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, NKE, JWN, NVDA, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PCG, PNW, PG, PEG, RLI, ROST, RES, SLB, SIGI, SKX, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TRV, UNM, VC, WRB, WSM, XEL, IYK, IYC, QQQ, EWZ, EWW, QLD, XLY, XLP, XLI, XRT, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Electric Utility (Central)6. Food Processing
7. Electric Utility (West)7. Electric Utility (West)
8. Short ETFs8. Electric Utility (Central)
9. Electric Utility (East)9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
10. Food Processing10. Aerospace/Defense
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Retail Store50. Diversified Co.
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Semiconductor
52. Computer Software and Svcs52. Apparel
53. Homebuilding53. Homebuilding
54. Apparel54. Internet
55. Internet55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Healthcare Information56. Computers and Peripherals
57. E-Commerce57. E-Commerce
58. Computers and Peripherals58. Healthcare Information
59. Shoe59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Retail (Special Lines)60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/20/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 110 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADBE, AES, ALB, ALKS, AMED, APH, ANIK, AON, APA, ADM, AWI, ADSK, AXS, BBY, BIO, BOOT, CX, CHS, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CLX, CL, CAG, GLW, COST, DHR, DVN, D, DRQ, FFIV, FDS, FLEX, FDP, GPS, IT, GD, GE, GIS, GL, EVRG, HBI, HIG, HL, HP, HSY, IDA, ITGR, IBKR, JNJ, KALU, KELYA, KMB, LH, LMT, LOW, MHO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MU, MUR, NOV, NWL, NXGN, NI, NWPX, OMCL, ASGN, PKE, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PNW, PEG, DGX, RL, RGS, REV, RHI, SLB, SCS, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TMO, UPS, VMI, WMT, WEX, WMB, IYK, IYE, IEO, EWZ, EWM, IBB, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/27/202205/12/2022Semiconductor
AEPTriangle, descending      04/21/202205/19/2022Electric Utility (Central)
AMATBroadening wedge, descending      04/11/202205/17/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
AGODiamond bottom      04/26/202205/18/2022Insurance (Life)
BMYTriangle, symmetrical      04/21/202205/16/2022Drug
CENXHorn top      03/21/202204/04/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/25/202205/09/2022Chemical (Basic)
CAGDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/21/202205/10/2022Food Processing
CTSUgly double bottom      04/27/202205/12/2022Electronics
EXCDiamond bottom      05/03/202205/18/2022Electric Utility (East)
FISDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/05/202204/20/2022Computer Software and Svcs
FIVNTriple top      04/04/202205/03/2022Computer Software and Svcs
GISTriple top      04/21/202205/16/2022Food Processing
HSYTriple top      04/21/202205/16/2022Food Processing
HOLXThree Rising Valleys      01/28/202203/15/2022Medical Supplies
NSPPipe top      04/25/202205/02/2022Human Resources
KFRCHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Human Resources
KLACDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      04/27/202205/12/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MRTNPipe top      05/02/202205/09/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
NJRDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      05/02/202205/12/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
NWLHorn top      04/25/202205/09/2022Household Products
PHMDiamond bottom      04/13/202205/19/2022Homebuilding
DGXDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/02/202205/12/2022Medical Services
TGTDead-cat bounce      05/18/202205/18/2022Retail Store

 

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Thursday 5/19/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -4.7% or -566.37 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 3 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.5% on 2 occasions.
     Average loss was -9.4% on 1 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 66.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 237/419 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/133 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

AE is a chart pattern called an Adam & Eve double bottom. The first bottom is narrow compared to the second bottom, which is more rounded looking. It confirms as a valid double bottom when the index closes above the top of the pattern, (red line) B.

The measure rule (a way to determine a price target) for this pattern is the height added to the top. The pattern fulfills the promise, or nearly so, at D.

Another pattern forms with a breakout at C. I show it in blue. It's a rectangle top. This one also meets, or nearly so, its measure rule target of the height added to the top of the pattern. The target is about D.

The slide after D was from economic news (weak sales/earnings) and a market that seems overly worried about everything. Don't worry. Be happy! That's an old refrain.

The picture to me suggests a recovery tomorrow (Thursday) which also agrees with the above stats, so that's the way I'm leaning.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 117 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, AKAM, AEE, ABC, AMGN, ANIK, APA, AWI, ADSK, AXS, BZH, BBY, BIG, CALM, CHS, CSCO, CAG, CLR, GLW, COST, DECK, DVN, ^DJU, D, DRQ, EQT, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FLEX, FWRD, FDP, FRD, GPS, EVRG, HBI, HLIT, HP, HSY, HOV, IDA, ITGR, JKHY, JAZZ, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KMT, KMB, KSS, LZB, LMT, M, MDC, MU, MCO, MUR, NOV, NCR, NWL, NXGN, NI, JWN, NWPX, OMCL, PTEN, PCG, PICO, PEG, RL, RGS, REV, RHI, SLB, SWX, TGT, TDOC, TPX, TMO, TOL, RIG, SLCA, VMI, WMT, WMB, WSM, XEL, IYC, IYE, ITB, IYH, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EWJ, EWS, TUR, PXJ, PJP, IXC, XLY, XRT, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,477.26    
 Monthly S1  10,447.71  970.44   
 Weekly S2  10,623.99  176.28   
 Weekly S1  11,021.07  397.08   
 Daily S2  11,097.49  76.42   
 Daily S1  11,257.82  160.33   
 Low  11,381.69  123.87   
 Close  11,418.15  36.46   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  11,505.84  87.69   
 Daily Pivot  11,542.02  36.18   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,551.50  9.48   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,603.96  52.45   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,656.41  52.45   
 Daily R1  11,702.35  45.94   
 Open  11,790.68  88.33   
 High  11,826.22  35.54   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly R1  11,902.92  76.70   
 Daily R2  11,986.55  83.63   
 Monthly Pivot  12,079.20  92.65   
 Weekly R2  12,387.69  308.49   
 Monthly R1  13,049.65  661.96   
 Monthly R2  14,681.14  1,631.50   

Wednesday 5/18/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI line turned bullish as the vertical green bar shows on the far right of the chart. Notice the timing. Exquisite. But I'm not sure you can trust it. Why? Because the signal may have happened a day or two after the index turned.

The signal is like driving down the road, going past your exit, and the indicator saying "You should have turned back there." That kind of information doesn't do you much good because you already drove past the exit.

Regardless, the CPI is bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 55% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 63%.
The fewest was 11% on 06/15/2021.
And the most was 65% on 05/11/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 456 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 28%.
The peak was 9% on 06/08/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 05/11/2022.

Both the red and blue lines are higher this week than they were last week.

What do the two charts mean? Both have turned bullish, so it suggests the move has legs (lasting). Of course, lots of world events could cause the short uptrend to end.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 149 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADBE, ADTN, AKAM, AA, ALKS, ALL, DOX, AEL, AIG, ANIK, APA, AMAT, ARCB, ADSK, AXS, BIO, CLS, CHS, CIEN, CNA, CMTL, CAG, COTY, CCRN, CTS, DRQ, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EMR, RE, EZPW, FICO, FDX, FLS, FORM, FCX, HBI, THG, HE, HTLD, HP, HNI, HON, ITW, ILMN, ITGR, JKHY, JBLU, KALU, KMB, LANC, LMT, LXU, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, MU, MLKN, NFG, NCR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NXGN, ORI, OLN, OMCL, OMC, OMI, PDCO, PICO, PFG, PEG, KWR, DGX, RGA, RCKY, SLB, SHW, LUV, SCS, SSYS, SRDX, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TEVA, TMO, RIG, TG, UNM, VC, WMT, WAT, WU, IEZ, FXI, BOTZ, SOXX, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, TUR, EWU, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, ILF, MXI, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/17/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.1% or 26.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1381 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.5% on 713 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 668 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 246/437 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/96 or 49.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring PPG Industries (PPG) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 64 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ALL, DOX, AEE, APA, ARCB, ATO, BERY, BMY, BBW, CBT, CALM, CVX, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CMTL, CAG, DSGR, WIRE, FLEX, FRD, GPS, GPRO, GFF, HIG, HTLD, HSII, HP, HNI, IDA, IVC, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LANC, M, NFG, NXGN, OXY, OMI, PANW, PFE, PCG, PRU, KWR, RMBS, REV, RLI, SSYS, SUM, TKR, TG, VMC, IHE, DBA, PJP, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,717.29    
 Monthly S1  30,470.35  1,753.07   
 Weekly S2  30,543.99  73.63   
 Weekly S1  31,383.70  839.72   
 Daily S2  31,636.03  252.33   
 Low  31,928.18  292.15   
 Daily S1  31,929.73  1.55   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  32,067.94  138.21   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,151.97  84.03   
 Open  32,152.15  0.18   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,221.10  68.95   
 Daily Pivot  32,221.87  0.77   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  32,223.42  1.55   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,290.23  66.81   
 High  32,514.02  223.79   
 Daily R1  32,515.57  1.55   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  32,807.71  292.15   
 Weekly R1  32,907.65  99.94   
 Monthly Pivot  32,981.29  73.63   
 Weekly R2  33,591.89  610.60   
 Monthly R1  34,734.35  1,142.46   
 Monthly R2  37,245.29  2,510.93   

Monday 5/16/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale.

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

LHR is a head-and-shoulders bottom with L being the left shoulder, H is the head, and R is the right shoulder. The chart pattern suggests a rise that was achieved, or close to being achieved, at D.

More recently, pattern AB is a double top It confirmed as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the red line, near C.

What does all of this mean going forward? The quick drop and recovery after C is what's called a pullback. After a pullback, there's a 54% chance that the index will resume the downtrend (according to my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition (#ad))

Because the predicted trend is about random, it doesn't help us, does it? However, the index is resting on support (created by the recent valleys near the same price) so my guess is the index will continue moving higher. The index dropped enough days in a row that a decent rebound is overdue.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 653.67 points.
Tuesday: Down 84.96 points.
Wednesday: Down 326.63 points.
Thursday: Down 103.81 points.
Friday: Up 466.36 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 702.71 points or 2.1%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 339.66 points or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 index was down 99.45 points or 2.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     12.9% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     3.1% up from the low of 31,228.22 on 05/12/2022.
Nasdaq
     25.5% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     6.3% up from the low of 11,108.76 on 05/12/2022.
S&P 500
     16.5% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     4.3% up from the low of 3,858.87 on 05/12/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  31,699  31,948  32,112  32,361  32,525 
Weekly  30,535  31,366  32,059  32,890  33,583 
Monthly  28,708  30,453  32,972  34,717  37,236 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,934  3,979  4,009  4,054  4,084 
Weekly  3,766  3,895  3,988  4,117  4,210 
Monthly  3,478  3,751  4,132  4,405  4,786 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,378  11,591  11,724  11,938  12,070 
Weekly  10,753  11,279  11,635  12,161  12,517 
Monthly  9,606  10,706  12,208  13,308  14,810 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, ADBE, AEIS, AYX, AMED, AMN, APA, AMAT, ATR, AWI, ADSK, AVY, AZTA, BALL, BZH, BERY, BIIB, BMY, BBW, CBT, CAL, CLS, CF, CVX, CHS, CLNE, COP, COTY, CROX, DVN, EXP, EIX, EOG, EPAM, RE, FAST, FDX, FIS, FLEX, FORM, FRD, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HSII, HP, HSIC, JBHT, IEX, IDXX, ILMN, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, LRCX, LEG, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MCO, NFG, OXY, ORI, OLN, OXM, PANW, PTEN, PCG, PGR, KWR, RMBS, RGS, RGA, RNG, RCKY, ROST, RES, ^GSPC, SLB, SEE, NOW, SKX, SUM, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TER, TEVA, TMO, TKR, TOL, TREX, VEEV, VMC, WAT, WSO, WMB, WOLF, WWW, XEL, ZBRA, IYE, ITB, IYH, IEO, IHI, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWS, THD, IBB, PBE, PHO, IXC, XLE, GLD, XLV, XHB, XAR, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Food Processing6. Food Processing
7. Electric Utility (West)7. Electric Utility (West)
8. Electric Utility (Central)8. Electric Utility (Central)
9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)9. Aerospace/Defense
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Diversified Co.50. Semiconductor
51. Semiconductor51. Homebuilding
52. Apparel52. Medical Supplies
53. Homebuilding53. Apparel
54. Internet54. Internet
55. Computer Software and Svcs55. Computer Software and Svcs
56. Computers and Peripherals56. Computers and Peripherals
57. E-Commerce57. E-Commerce
58. Healthcare Information58. Healthcare Information
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Retail (Special Lines)
60. Shoe60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/13/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AJRD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, AEE, AEL, AXP, ABC, AMN, APH, APA, AMAT, AWI, AGO, ADSK, AVNT, AXS, BCPC, BAX, BERY, BA, EPAY, BMY, BBW, CBT, CALM, CAL, CE, CNC, CNP, CENX, CIEN, CLF, CRH, CMI, DDS, DFS, DRQ, EIX, EOG, EXC, EXPD, FDX, FLEX, FTNT, FCX, GME, GNW, GS, GPRO, GFF, GES, HIG, HSII, HELE, HP, HNI, IDXX, KALU, KFRC, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LH, LRCX, LEG, LNC, LXU, MHO, MAS, MRK, FB, MU, MCO, MS, NFG, CNR, OXY, OLN, OMCL, ASGN, OXM, PAYX, PCG, PRU, PEG, KWR, RMBS, REV, SEE, SMTC, SCCO, LUV, SUM, TPR, TKR, TSCO, RIG, TREX, SLCA, VMC, WWW, IHE, FXI, IYH, SLV, EWA, EWO, EWH, EWM, EPP, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, MXI, XLP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ACIWDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/21/202205/05/2022IT Services
APDBroadening top, right-angled and descending      03/29/202205/05/2022Chemical (Diversified)
AELDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/29/202204/21/2022Insurance (Life)
AXPTriple top      03/22/202204/21/2022Financial Services
ASHThree Falling Peaks      04/20/202205/04/2022Chemical (Basic)
BERYHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Packaging and Container
BMRNPipe top      04/04/202204/11/2022Biotechnology
BOOTThree Falling Peaks      03/18/202205/04/2022Shoe
BRCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/30/202205/04/2022Chemical (Diversified)
BBWHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Retail (Special Lines)
CACIHead-and-shoulders top      03/07/202204/07/2022IT Services
CLNEDead-cat bounce      05/06/202205/06/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
DFSDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/20/202205/04/2022Financial Services
^DJTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/21/202205/04/2022None
FDSHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202204/21/2022Information Services
FISVTriple top      04/05/202204/28/2022IT Services
GPROHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Electronics
GFFPennant      05/04/202205/12/2022Building Materials
GESHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202205/04/2022Apparel
HONBroadening top      03/23/202204/29/2022Aerospace/Defense
ITGRTriple top      12/29/202104/20/2022Electronics
KUgly double bottom      03/14/202205/03/2022Food Processing
LHXPipe top      02/28/202203/07/2022Aerospace/Defense
LRCXHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MTSITriple top      04/20/202205/04/2022Semiconductor
NFGHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
NKETriple top      03/22/202204/21/2022Shoe
NOCTriangle, symmetrical      03/07/202205/12/2022Aerospace/Defense
NWPXUgly double bottom      04/07/202205/06/2022Building Materials
PANWDouble Top, Eve and Eve      03/31/202204/20/2022Computer Software and Svcs
PATKUgly double bottom      04/07/202204/27/2022Retail Building Supply
PPGTriple top      03/29/202205/04/2022Chemical (Diversified)
KWRHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Chemical (Specialty)
RMBSHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RGSDead-cat bounce      05/10/202205/10/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
REVDead-cat bounce      05/10/202205/10/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
SLGNTriple top      03/22/202204/21/2022Packaging and Container
SUMHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Cement and Aggregates
TXTTriple top      04/21/202205/04/2022Diversified Co.
TJXHead-and-shoulders top      03/29/202205/04/2022Retail Store
SLCAHead-and-shoulders top      04/05/202205/05/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
VMCHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Cement and Aggregates

 

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Thursday 5/12/22. Cryptocurrency BTC-USD

The Nasdaq dropped by -3.2% or -373.43 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 21 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.7% on 10 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.4% on 11 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 52.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 237/419 or 56.6% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/132 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of Bitcoin, BTC-USD, on the weekly scale.

The drop from A to B represents a decline from almost 69,000 (A) to 33,000 (B) or 52%. It has recovered to 45,000 or 36%.

Imagine losing half your value, and if you had the fortitude to hold on, you'd have made back a third.

So what's next? The coin shows a potential double bottom at BCD. It'll confirm as a valid chart pattern when the coin closes above peak C. If that happens, then expect the coin to continue rising, perhaps as far as 57,000. That's the height of C to B added to C. The value is an estimate, a guess, so don't put a lot of weight on it. We first have to see a close above peak C.


$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 72 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AJRD, ALKS, DOX, AEL, ABC, APA, AMAT, ARW, AIZ, AGO, BCPC, BAX, BERY, BRC, BBW, CBT, CNP, CMI, DSGR, FLEX, IT, GPRO, GES, HAYN, HP, IBP, TILE, KALU, KFRC, KLIC, LRCX, LANC, LEG, LMT, MAS, MDC, MCO, NFG, NXGN, JWN, NUS, OXM, PKE, PAYX, PCG, PINC, KWR, RMBS, RGS, SIGI, SMTC, SHW, LUV, SUM, TKR, TZOO, UNM, VMC, XEL, TUR, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,085.36    
 Monthly S1  10,724.80  639.44   
 Daily S2  11,010.65  285.85   
 Weekly S2  11,118.27  107.63   
 Daily S1  11,187.44  69.17   
 Weekly S1  11,241.26  53.81   
 Low  11,339.18  97.92   
 Close  11,364.24  25.06   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  11,515.98  151.74   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,532.22  16.24   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,591.84  59.63   
 Open  11,645.57  53.73   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,651.47  5.90   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily R1  11,692.77  41.30   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  11,844.51  151.74   
 Daily R2  12,021.31  176.80   
 Weekly Pivot  12,113.13  91.83   
 Weekly R1  12,236.12  122.98   
 Monthly Pivot  12,629.59  393.47   
 Weekly R2  13,107.99  478.40   
 Monthly R1  13,269.03  161.04   
 Monthly R2  15,173.82  1,904.79   

Wednesday 5/11/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red bar is a bearish signal, the green one is bullish, and the white bars are neutral.

The chart shows that the indicator briefly lifted into neutral territory (it lasted only 1 day), it has since returned to bearish territory.

The thin blue line near the bottom of the chart is bearish but it often doesn't stay down there long. So it suggests a rebound. However, the rebound might not amount too much, given that the markets are suffering. You can see a brief rebound in mid April.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 63% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 54%.
The fewest was 11% on 06/15/2021.
And the most was 63% on 05/10/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 457 stocks in my database are down an average of 27% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 9% on 06/08/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 05/10/2022.

Both the red and blue lines dropped today compared to a week ago. That's clear from both the chart and the above results.

This chart is bearish and we also have a bearish CPI chart which hints of an upswing. Which side will win (bulls or bears)?

I'll have to say the bears have the upper hand, but future events (like employment numbers or war results) will influence what happens. One of these days, it's going to be a time to buy, so have your cash ready.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 211 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, APD, ATSG, AA, ALKS, AYX, DOX, AMWD, ABC, APH, APA, AMAT, ARW, AGO, AVY, AXS, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BZH, BERY, BBY, BIO, BMRN, BKH, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BBW, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CIEN, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CTSH, CMCO, ED, CLR, CRH, CMI, XRAY, D, DOV, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EVH, FAST, FE, FLEX, FTNT, FCX, FRD, GPS, IT, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, GES, HBI, HE, HAYN, HL, HP, HSIC, DHI, IEX, ITW, IBP, IBKR, IPG, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LEN, M, MAS, MDC, MDT, MRK, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, NBR, NFG, NWL, NI, JWN, NUS, NVDA, OGE, ORI, OMCL, OMC, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PPG, PEG, PHM, KWR, DGX, RMBS, RJF, RGS, REV, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, SHW, SKX, SWN, SXI, SCS, SUM, TGT, TPX, TER, TXT, TKR, TOL, RIG, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VFC, VRSN, VMC, WAT, WU, WWW, WDAY, IAI, IYK, ITB, FTEC, QTEC, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, SLV, IGE, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PXJ, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, MXI, GLD, XHB, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/10/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)

The Dow dropped by -2.0% or -653.67 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 87 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 42 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.6% on 45 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close lower 51.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 246/437 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 46/95 or 48.4% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Polo Ralph Lauren: RL stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AYI, AJRD, AA, ALKS, AYX, AEL, AMAT, ATR, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BIG, BIIB, BMRN, EPAY, CALM, CENX, CVX, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CGNX, CL, CMTL, ED, COTY, DSGR, EVH, EXC, EXPD, FICO, FE, FISV, FTNT, FCX, GPRO, GES, HL, HNI, HUBG, HURC, ILMN, INCY, INFN, IBKR, IVC, JAZZ, JBLU, KMT, KSS, LRCX, LXU, MAN, MRTN, MTRX, MDT, FB, MCO, MUR, NBR, CNR, JWN, OXM, PANW, PATK, PTEN, RJF, RGS, RNG, SCHW, SMTC, SKX, SWN, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TFX, TDC, TXT, RIG, TG, VRSN, VRTX, WSO, WERN, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, IAI, IYC, IYE, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, SLV, IEO, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, GLD, XAR, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  30,353.58    
 Weekly S2  31,269.90  916.32   
 Monthly S1  31,299.64  29.74   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  31,757.80  458.16   
 Daily S2  31,787.76  29.96   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  32,016.73  228.97   
 Low  32,121.98  105.25   
 Close  32,245.70  123.72   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,337.12  91.42   
 Daily Pivot  32,350.95  13.83   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,403.57  52.63   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,470.03  66.46   
 Daily R1  32,579.92  109.89   
 Open  32,685.17  105.25   
 High  32,685.17  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  32,914.14  228.97   
 Weekly Pivot  32,937.77  23.63   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  33,395.93  458.16   
 Weekly R1  33,425.67  29.74   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Monthly R1  34,341.99  916.32   
 Weekly R2  34,605.64  263.65   
 Monthly R2  36,438.28  1,832.64   

Monday 5/9/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

This is a picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I drew a few lines, so let's start with the red one. This trendline starts from the left of the chart, connecting a few peaks at the start. I extended it to the right and adjusted it so that it lined up with price on the far right.

The line is an approximation, in that the line comes close to peaks or valleys where you'd expect to see support or resistance, which happens.

The green circle is what's called the corrective phase of a measured move up chart pattern. The corrective phase is a known support area and we see that here, too.

I say that because of the green horizontal line shows support (the area around the line).

What does this mean? It suggests but does not guarantee that the index will continue to find support here and rise.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 84.29 points.
Tuesday: Up 67.29 points.
Wednesday: Up 932.27 points.
Thursday: Down 1063.09 points.
Friday: Down 98.6 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 77.84 points or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 189.98 points or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 8.59 points or 0.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     1.9% up from the low of 32,272.64 on 02/24/2022.
Nasdaq
     23.4% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     1.3% up from the low of 11,990.15 on 05/06/2022.
S&P 500
     14.4% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     1.5% up from the low of 4,062.51 on 05/02/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,229  32,564  32,810  33,145  33,391 
Weekly  31,488  32,194  33,156  33,861  34,824 
Monthly  30,571  31,735  33,614  34,778  36,656 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,027  4,075  4,116  4,165  4,206 
Weekly  3,919  4,021  4,165  4,266  4,410 
Monthly  3,729  3,926  4,260  4,457  4,791 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,796  11,970  12,164  12,339  12,533 
Weekly  11,378  11,762  12,373  12,756  13,368 
Monthly  10,346  11,245  12,890  13,789  15,434 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 86 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AYI, APD, ALB, AA, AEL, AFG, AMGN, ANIK, AVA, AZTA, BCPC, BSET, BIIB, EPAY, BMY, CALM, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CGNX, COP, GLW, COTY, CROX, BOOM, EIX, FICO, FAST, FE, FCX, GIS, GNW, GPRO, HSY, IDXX, ILMN, INFN, IIIN, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KMT, KLIC, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, MTRX, FB, MGEE, NTAP, NKE, JWN, NWPX, OMCL, PATK, PPL, PEG, ROG, SRE, SKX, SO, SCCO, SUM, SRDX, TDC, TG, UNM, VFC, WRB, WEX, IYC, EWO, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWD, EWL, IXC, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Natural Gas (Diversified)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Food Processing6. Food Processing
7. Electric Utility (West)7. Electric Utility (Central)
8. Electric Utility (Central)8. Electric Utility (West)
9. Aerospace/Defense9. Aerospace/Defense
10. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)10. Household Products
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Semiconductor50. Computers and Peripherals
51. Homebuilding51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Medical Supplies52. Securities Brokerage
53. Apparel53. Medical Supplies
54. Internet54. Computer Software and Svcs
55. Computer Software and Svcs55. Internet
56. Computers and Peripherals56. Homebuilding
57. E-Commerce57. Retail (Special Lines)
58. Healthcare Information58. E-Commerce
59. Retail (Special Lines)59. Shoe
60. Shoe60. Healthcare Information

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 5/6/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 79 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ADTN, APD, ALB, AEL, AFG, ANIK, APOG, ADM, ADP, BBBY, BBY, EPAY, CALM, CENX, CF, CTSH, COTY, CROX, CCRN, D, EPAM, EZPW, FAST, FE, FIVN, FCX, FRD, GNW, HL, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, NVTA, LAMR, LNC, LXU, MNDT, FB, MUR, ^IXIC, NOV, CNR, NTGR, NJR, NWPX, OTEX, PATK, RGS, REV, ^GSPC, SIGI, SCCO, SXI, SRDX, SLCA, WMB, IYC, IEZ, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EWI, EWT, TUR, PXJ, IEV, IXN, UNG, USO, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
ABTDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/08/202204/21/2022Medical Supplies
AEISDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/18/202204/27/2022Semiconductor
AKAMDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/05/202204/21/2022E-Commerce
AAHead-and-shoulders top      03/07/202204/18/2022Aerospace/Defense
AMWDScallop, descending      03/21/202205/04/2022Building Materials
ARCBUgly double bottom      04/08/202204/27/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
BBBYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/07/202203/29/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BBYTriple bottom      04/06/202205/02/2022Retail (Special Lines)
BRCTriple bottom      04/06/202204/29/2022Chemical (Diversified)
BLDRDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/07/202204/27/2022Retail Building Supply
CALThree Rising Valleys      03/08/202204/25/2022Shoe
CNPScallop, ascending and inverted      03/10/202205/02/2022Electric Utility (Central)
EXPTriple bottom      04/07/202204/25/2022Cement and Aggregates
WIREDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/07/202204/25/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
EPAMFlag, high and tight      03/08/202205/05/2022IT Services
EXCDouble Top, Eve and Adam      04/08/202204/21/2022Electric Utility (East)
EZPWBroadening top      04/13/202205/02/2022Financial Services
FMCHead-and-shoulders top      03/25/202204/29/2022Chemical (Basic)
FWRDUgly double bottom      04/08/202204/27/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
GNWBroadening bottom      03/17/202205/05/2022Insurance (Life)
GFFDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/11/202204/27/2022Building Materials
THGTriple top      04/04/202204/21/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HSCDead-cat bounce      05/03/202205/03/2022Diversified Co.
ITWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/18/202205/02/2022Metal Fabricating
ILMNHead-and-shoulders top      03/22/202204/21/2022Biotechnology
INFNDiamond bottom      04/11/202205/03/2022Telecom. Equipment
TILEBig W      04/07/202204/27/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
IPGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/29/202204/21/2022Advertising
JAZZDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/07/202204/21/2022Biotechnology
LRCXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/18/202204/27/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LAWSUgly double bottom      04/11/202204/27/2022Metal Fabricating
LXUHorn top      04/04/202204/18/2022Building Materials
MANTriangle, symmetrical      03/08/202205/05/2022Human Resources
MCHXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      03/18/202203/29/2022Advertising
MDTBroadening top      03/29/202204/21/2022Medical Supplies
FBPipe bottom      04/18/202204/25/2022E-Commerce
NBRPipe top      04/11/202204/18/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OGEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      04/06/202204/21/2022Electric Utility (Central)
OMCDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/30/202204/20/2022Advertising
RJFDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/29/202204/21/2022Securities Brokerage
SEEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      04/25/202205/02/2022Packaging and Container
SODouble Top, Eve and Eve      04/11/202204/21/2022Electric Utility (East)
TOLDiamond bottom      04/08/202205/02/2022Homebuilding
WSOTriple top      03/21/202204/21/2022Retail Building Supply
XELHead-and-shoulders top      04/11/202204/28/2022Electric Utility (West)

 

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Thursday 5/5/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 3.2% or 401.1 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 13 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.0% on 7 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.0% on 6 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 53.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 237/418 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/132 or 47.7% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Peaks A and B mark the tops of a double top chart pattern. It confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closed below the valley between A and B. However, the drop didn't amount to much (about a third of what it should have to meet the measure rule target. The target is the height of the pattern subtracted from the low in the valley between the two peaks).

I also show a head-and-shoulders bottom with RS being the right shoulder. The left shoulder is farther away from the head than RS, but it's close enough. The pattern predicts a rise when it closed above C. It suggests an additional rise of about 200 points.

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Here's a symbol list of 81 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, ADTN, AJRD, APD, AKAM, ALB, DOX, AEO, AEL, APOG, AVNT, AVA, BOOT, CDNS, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CGNX, COTY, CCK, BOOM, WIRE, EOG, FIVN, GNW, HQY, HTLD, HSY, HNI, IDXX, INFN, IIIN, IPAR, TILE, NVTA, KBAL, LXU, FB, CNR, NTGR, OMCL, PTEN, PINC, RGS, SAIA, SMG, SLGN, SR, SXI, RIG, VLO, VMC, WERN, WLK, IYM, IYE, IHE, FXI, EWI, EWP, TUR, EWU, DBA, IXC, XLE, UNG, USO, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,978.01    
 Monthly S1  11,971.43  993.43   
 Weekly S2  12,068.31  96.87   
 Daily S2  12,154.31  86.00   
 Low  12,367.02  212.71   
 Weekly S1  12,516.58  149.56   
 Daily S1  12,559.58  43.00   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  12,574.73  15.15   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,603.09  28.36   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,676.01  72.92   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,748.94  72.92   
 Weekly Pivot  12,764.02  15.08   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  12,772.30  8.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Close  12,964.86  192.56   
 High  12,985.01  20.15   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Daily R1  13,177.57  192.56   
 Weekly R1  13,212.29  34.72   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 Monthly Pivot  13,309.17  96.87   
 Daily R2  13,390.29  81.12   
 Weekly R2  13,459.73  69.44   
 Monthly R1  14,302.59  842.87   
 Monthly R2  15,640.33  1,337.73   

Wednesday 5/4/22. A Look At Indicators: More Bullish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has climbed to the neutral territory for the last 2 sessions (Monday and Tuesday). You can't see it on the chart because I don't highlight the neutral zone.

Look at the thin blue CPI line at the bottom of the chart. It's made a nice climb off a failure swing, which is bullish.

Even though the most recent vertical bar is bearish, the chart is looking good to me. I expect a positive move after the FED announces their rate hike tomorrow.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 54% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 59%.
The fewest was 11% on 06/15/2021.
And the most was 59% on 04/26/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 457 stocks in my database are down an average of 24% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 8% on 05/07/2021.
And the bottom was 25% on 04/29/2022.

The two lines, the blue and red ones, have climbed off their recent lows. That's also a bullish turn. I still don't like the very-long downtrend (from left of chart to right).

I still have a hunch that the next move will be upward. Another guess and I've been wrong often enough recently. Indeed, this downturn took me by surprise and I don't really believe that the drop should have been as steep as it has been.

$ $ $

For those Patternz users, I'm still working on fixing the problems introduced by yahoo. I've an experimental version you can try. I'll release a new version as soon as it settles down into a stable state.

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Here's a symbol list of 70 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AMED, AEL, AMGN, BCPC, BIIB, CACI, CNO, COP, COTY, CCRN, CSGS, DHR, DVN, DDS, DFS, EL, EZPW, FICO, FIVN, FTNT, FRD, GNW, HLIT, HSC, HQY, HNI, IEX, IBKR, KALU, KSS, KLIC, RAMP, M, MRO, MRTN, MRK, FB, NTGR, PKE, PINC, RGS, ROK, SUM, TKR, VC, WAT, WSO, WLK, WEX, WSM, XEL, IEZ, FXI, IEO, EWW, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 5/3/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.3% or 84.29 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1130 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 623 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 507 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 55.1% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 245/436 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 46/95 or 48.4% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Oxford Industries: OXM stock.

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Patternz broke again, with the same hang error found this time by Naresh Kumar, but using a different path. You can find the latest release to fix the problem here. Thanks Naresh for reporting this.

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Here's a symbol list of 107 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACN, AYI, AEIS, AJRD, ALRM, DOX, AEO, ARW, AGO, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BSET, BMRN, BKH, CNP, CRL, CNA, CGNX, CL, CLR, COTY, CSGS, DECK, EXC, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FMC, FORM, FCX, FDP, GFF, HLIT, HIG, HAYN, HNI, INCY, INFN, TILE, IVC, JBLU, KMT, KFRC, LXU, MTSI, MRK, MU, MCO, MS, NBR, NJR, NEU, NVDA, OXY, OGE, ORI, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PNW, PLXS, PPG, RJF, RGS, ROG, SAIC, SEE, SCCO, TDOC, TEVA, VFC, VEEV, VRSN, WRB, IYC, SLV, EWA, EWZ, EIS, EPP, EWD, THD, TUR, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLP, GLD, XLI, XLB, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  31,243.22    
 Daily S2  32,137.03  893.81   
 Monthly S1  32,152.36  15.33   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S2  32,167.36  15.00   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Low  32,449.87  282.51   
 Daily S1  32,599.26  149.39   
 Weekly S1  32,614.43  15.17   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,745.95  131.52   
 50% Down from Intraday High  32,837.41  91.46   
 Daily Pivot  32,912.11  74.70   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  32,928.87  16.77   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  32,978.49  49.62   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  33,061.50  83.01   
 High  33,224.95  163.45   
 Weekly Pivot  33,360.22  135.27   
 Daily R1  33,374.34  14.13   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  33,687.19  312.84   
 Weekly R1  33,807.29  120.10   
 Monthly Pivot  33,822.29  15.00   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  34,553.08  730.79   
 Monthly R1  34,731.43  178.35   
 Monthly R2  36,401.36  1,669.93   

Monday 5/2/22. 2022 Forecast Update

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Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Here's a symbol list of 124 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ALB, AA, AMZN, DOX, AEO, ANIK, AGO, AVY, AVA, BCPC, BLL, BERY, BIIB, BKH, BMY, CALM, CLS, CNP, CF, CHD, CGNX, CL, CLR, CSGS, DVN, EQT, XOM, FLEX, FMC, FRD, GILD, HLIT, HIG, HE, HL, IEX, ILMN, INTC, IVC, NVTA, KMT, LEG, LXU, MRTN, MGEE, MS, MOS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, NJR, OXY, ORI, OLN, OMC, PKG, PETS, PCG, PNW, PHM, RJF, RGS, SAIC, SUM, TPR, TFX, TKR, RIG, TZOO, VRSN, WU, WLK, ITA, IYM, IYC, IYE, IEZ, FXI, ICF, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWD, EWL, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLE, XHB, XLB, XRT, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Integrated)2. Natural Gas (Diversified)
3. Natural Gas (Diversified)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment4. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Food Processing6. Food Processing
7. Electric Utility (Central)7. Electric Utility (West)
8. Electric Utility (West)8. Electric Utility (Central)
9. Aerospace/Defense9. Electric Utility (East)
10. Household Products10. Household Products
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computers and Peripherals50. Securities Brokerage
51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing51. Medical Supplies
52. Securities Brokerage52. Internet
53. Medical Supplies53. Computers and Peripherals
54. Computer Software and Svcs54. Furn/Home Furnishings
55. Internet55. Retail (Special Lines)
56. Homebuilding56. Computer Software and Svcs
57. Retail (Special Lines)57. Homebuilding
58. E-Commerce58. Healthcare Information
59. Shoe59. Shoe
60. Healthcare Information60. E-Commerce

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 29 March 2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+39%)
8. Consumer staples (3%)
5. Utilities (3%)
9. Materials (-4%)
4. Health care (-5%)
2. Real estate (-6%)
10. Industrials (-8%)
6. Financials (-9%)
3. Information technology (-15%)
7. Consumer discretionary (-16%)
11. Communication services (-23%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 4/22/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
10. Real estate
9. Utilities
11. Materials

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 4/29. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Energy equipment and services (+62%)
4. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+60%)
5. Metals and mining (27%)
10. Food and staples retailing (26%)
9. Health care providers and services (+25%)
4. Health care technology (24%)
New. Pharmaceuticals (+22%)
7. Diversified financial services (+21%)
3. Construction and engineering (+21%)
6. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals (20%)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Bedroom to Boardroom book Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

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