Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 09/27/2022
  Indus: 29,135 -125.82 -0.4%  
  Trans: 12,153 +153.95 +1.3%  
  Utils: 934 -19.25 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,830 +26.58 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,647 -7.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-19.8%  
-26.2%  
-4.7%  
-30.8%  
-23.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow990 or 900 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/13/22
As of 09/27/2022
  Indus: 29,135 -125.82 -0.4%  
  Trans: 12,153 +153.95 +1.3%  
  Utils: 934 -19.25 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 10,830 +26.58 +0.2%  
  S&P 500: 3,647 -7.75 -0.2%  
YTD
-19.8%  
-26.2%  
-4.7%  
-30.8%  
-23.5%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow990 or 900 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/13/22

June 2022 Headlines

Archives


Thursday 6/30/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by 0.0% or -3.65 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 696 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 299 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 57.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 239/423 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A head-and-shoulders top chart pattern appears at L (left shoulder), H (head), and R (right shoulder). This confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes below the blue neckline. That happened near A. The drop was sufficient to exceed its target (the height of the pattern at the head to the neckline) subtracted from the value of A, where the breakout is.

The near-horizontal red line is a support line. It suggests the index will find support here and move higher. Because this is on the 5-minute scale versus the daily scale, support and resistance aren't as robust as on longer time scales.

We'll have to see if events push the index around and in what direction.

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As you may have noticed, I finished working on a new home page. No links were deleted. I rearranged the columns so that the "Blog" link will appear first on cell phones. The home page looks more professional while still retaining the same content.

If you have suggestions or have problems, then email me at: email address.

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Here's a symbol list of 348 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACIW, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, ALB, ALL, AEE, AEP, AEL, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, AMN, APH, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ACGL, AWI, ARW, ASH, AIZ, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BALL, BSET, BBBY, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRC, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CAL, CLS, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, ED, CONN, COP, GLW, COTY, CR, CROX, CCK, CMI, CW, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, DSGR, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, DOV, DTE, DUK, EIX, ELV, EOG, EFX, EQT, EXPD, XOM, EZPW, FICO, FIS, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FWRD, FRD, GME, IT, GD, GNW, GPN, GPRO, GGG, EVRG, GES, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HE, HTLD, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HNI, DHI, HOV, HUBG, IDA, IEX, NSP, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, TILE, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LNC, L, LXU, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MGEE, MU, MLKN, MCO, MS, MLI, NOV, CNR, NCR, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, PG, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RJF, RGA, RLI, ROK, SAIA, SLB, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SO, LUV, SWX, SR, SXI, SCS, SRDX, TPX, TER, TXN, TXT, TOL, TRV, TREX, SLCA, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, VC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WSO, WERN, WU, WEX, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYE, ITB, IDU, DDM, ICF, IAT, SOXX, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, XLP, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XAR, XLU, UNG, USO, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,599.40    
 Monthly S1  10,388.65  789.24   
 Weekly S2  10,567.89  179.24   
 Weekly S1  10,872.89  305.00   
 Daily S2  11,004.66  131.77   
 Low  11,072.19  67.53   
 Daily S1  11,091.28  19.09   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,131.07  39.79   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,149.26  18.19   
 Daily Pivot  11,158.80  9.54   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  11,160.22  1.42   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,167.45  7.23   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Close  11,177.89  10.44   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  11,226.33  48.44   
 Weekly Pivot  11,243.06  16.73   
 Daily R1  11,245.42  2.36   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Daily R2  11,312.94  67.53   
 Monthly Pivot  11,354.38  41.44   
 Weekly R1  11,548.06  193.68   
 Weekly R2  11,918.23  370.17   
 Monthly R1  12,143.63  225.40   
 Monthly R2  13,109.36  965.74   

Wednesday 6/29/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator reached its ceiling at 100 yesterday but backed off that today (Tuesday). The signal is bullish but getting weaker, heading toward neutral.

You can see that by the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, on the right.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 70% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 74%.
The fewest was 12% on 07/01/2021.
And the most was 79% on 06/17/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 454 stocks in my database are down an average of 30% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 31%.
The peak was 11% on 07/01/2021.
And the bottom was 33% on 06/16/2022.

Both the red and blue lines recovered somewhat from a week ago. Of course, the two lines have been trending lower all year.

If you look at the red line, the steep drop of the last 2 weeks or so is startling. You'd expect a bounce, a retrace, which is what we see here.

This week, the prior chart is bullish but getting weaker, and this one is bearish. Combined, I think this means we're in for a period of weakness.

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Here's a symbol list of 402 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, APD, ATSG, AKAM, ALB, ALL, AEE, AEP, AEL, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APOG, AMAT, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AWI, ARW, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, AZTA, BALL, BSET, BECN, BERY, BIG, BIO, BIIB, BKH, BOOT, BRC, BFH, BBW, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CALM, CAL, CLS, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CHD, CINF, CLNE, CNO, CGNX, CTSH, CL, ED, CAG, CONN, GLW, COTY, CR, CROX, CCK, CSGS, CMI, CW, XRAY, DFS, D, DOV, DRQ, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EBAY, EIX, ELV, EOG, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FFIV, FICO, FAST, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FWRD, GME, IT, GD, GIS, GPN, GGG, EVRG, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HE, HTLD, HL, HSII, HELE, HP, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, TILE, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KBH, KELYA, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LNC, L, LOW, MHO, MTSI, MNDT, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MAS, MA, MTRN, MDC, MDT, META, MGEE, MU, MLKN, MCO, MS, MLI, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, NKE, NI, JWN, NWPX, OXY, OGE, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, OMI, PKG, PANW, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PNW, PLXS, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, PG, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RL, RGA, RLI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, SAIA, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SO, LUV, SWX, SR, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TFX, TPX, TER, TXN, TXT, TOL, TSCO, TRV, TZOO, TREX, UGI, UNM, VMI, VRSN, V, VC, WRB, WMT, WAT, WSO, WERN, WU, WEX, WOLF, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IAI, IYC, ITB, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, SOXX, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWM, EWW, EPP, EZA, EWP, THD, EWU, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, SSO, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, SMH, VHT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/28/22. Slider Trading Quiz! Southern Peru Copper (PCU)

The Dow dropped by -0.2% or -62.42 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1235 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 620 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 615 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 50.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 249/442 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/97 or 48.5% of the time.

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Peru Copper: PCU stock.

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Here's a symbol list of 61 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AES, APD, ALRM, AMZN, DOX, AMN, ANTM, AIZ, AZTA, BMI, BOOT, BAH, BMY, BBW, CALM, CSCO, DVN, EVH, GME, GNW, GES, HTLD, NSP, ITGR, TILE, NVTA, JBLU, KELYA, KBAL, NEE, OMI, PANW, PFE, PINC, RL, SIGI, SSYS, TPR, TDC, TSCO, VFC, VEEV, WRB, WWW, IHE, IDU, FXI, EWK, EWH, EWS, EZA, PJP. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,835.58    
 Weekly S2  29,567.48  1,731.90   
 Monthly S1  29,636.92  69.44   
 Weekly S1  30,502.87  865.95   
 Weekly Pivot  31,010.08  507.21   
 Daily S2  31,215.52  205.44   
 Daily S1  31,326.89  111.37   
 Low  31,351.37  24.48   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  31,438.26  86.89   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  31,445.81  7.55   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  31,454.63  8.82   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  31,462.74  8.11   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  31,474.98  12.24   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  31,504.15  29.17   
 Open  31,533.60  29.45   
 Daily R1  31,574.11  40.51   
 High  31,598.59  24.48   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  31,709.96  111.37   
 Weekly R1  31,945.47  235.51   
 Weekly R2  32,452.68  507.21   
 Monthly R1  33,255.97  803.29   
 Monthly R2  35,073.68  1,817.71   

Monday 6/27/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I show the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

At B, the index found support and bounced upward. It's typical for the indices to do that after a strong move lower.

At A, the index has a strong area of overhead resistance to an upward move. It could rise above the red line, but I expect it to stall near the line. It might be able to burn through and continue higher. Or it could bounce off the line and tumble. I suspect we'll see a pause before a resumption of the rise.

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In the coming weeks, I'll be reworking my website to make it better or easier for non-desktops to view the site. I'm not planning to change the presentation, just the way it works. That could change, depending on how many hoops I have to go through to get the site to work.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 641.47 points.
Wednesday: Down 47.12 points.
Thursday: Up 194.23 points.
Friday: Up 823.32 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1611.9 points or 5.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 809.27 points or 7.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 232.9 points or 6.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     14.8% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     6.2% up from the low of 29,653.29 on 06/17/2022.
Nasdaq
     26.8% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     9.9% up from the low of 10,565.14 on 06/16/2022.
S&P 500
     18.8% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     7.6% up from the low of 3,636.87 on 06/17/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,618  31,059  31,288  31,730  31,959 
Weekly  29,588  30,544  31,031  31,987  32,473 
Monthly  27,856  29,679  31,475  33,298  35,094 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,790  3,851  3,882  3,943  3,974 
Weekly  3,649  3,780  3,847  3,978  4,045 
Monthly  3,368  3,640  3,909  4,181  4,449 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,244  11,426  11,520  11,701  11,795 
Weekly  10,711  11,159  11,386  11,835  12,061 
Monthly  9,743  10,675  11,498  12,430  13,253 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, ACN, AMD, AES, AFL, APD, ALRM, ALKS, AMZN, DOX, AMED, ANIK, AAPL, ATR, AWI, ATO, ADP, BMI, BAX, BZH, BAH, BMY, CBT, CALM, CENX, CHD, CINF, CSCO, CTXS, CNA, CGNX, CLR, COST, COTY, DDS, DSGR, ^DJU, DTE, EFX, EL, FICO, FIVN, FLS, FORM, FDP, GME, IT, GL, GOOGL, GGG, EVRG, GES, HLIT, HTLD, HP, HNI, HON, IEX, IDXX, INCY, INTU, IVC, NVTA, JNJ, KALU, KFRC, LZB, LH, LEN, LLY, RAMP, L, MSFT, MCO, NBR, ^IXIC, CNR, NEU, NEE, NI, NVDA, OXY, OTEX, OUT, OMI, OXM, PAYX, PFE, PPG, PG, PGR, PEG, KWR, QCOM, RJF, RNG, RHI, ROG, ^GSPC, CRM, SRE, NOW, TPR, TXN, TRV, UPS, VMI, VEEV, WERN, WEX, WOLF, ITA, IYK, IYC, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, EWZ, EWW, QLD, PPA, DBA, PJP, PHO, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLP, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, VHT, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Short ETFs
6. Short ETFs6. Natural Gas (Distributor)
7. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)7. Aerospace/Defense
8. Food Processing8. Food Processing
9. Aerospace/Defense9. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
10. Electric Utility (West)10. Insurance (Life)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Diversified Co.50. Retail Building Supply
51. Toiletries/Cosmetics51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Trucking/Transp. Leasing52. Cement and Aggregates
53. Shoe53. Telecom. Equipment
54. E-Commerce54. Semiconductor
55. Cement and Aggregates55. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
56. Semiconductor Cap Equip.56. Toiletries/Cosmetics
57. Telecom. Equipment57. E-Commerce
58. Semiconductor58. Shoe
59. Computers and Peripherals59. Computers and Peripherals
60. Homebuilding60. Homebuilding

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/24/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AYI, ATSG, AA, AYX, AMZN, AXP, APA, ATR, ARW, AVA, BAX, BZH, BERY, BKNG, BOOT, BFH, BG, CALM, CPB, CENX, CF, CVX, CINF, CLF, CNO, CONN, COP, CLR, COTY, CCK, DVN, DRQ, BOOM, EOG, EQT, EL, XOM, FLEX, FCX, GPS, GNW, GES, HIG, HAYN, HL, HP, DHI, HOV, JBHT, IBP, IBKR, IPI, NVTA, JBLU, KALU, KBH, K, KMT, KMB, LEG, LEN, LXU, MRO, MAS, MTRX, MDC, MS, MOS, MUR, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NFLX, NWL, NEE, JWN, NUS, NVDA, OMI, PKE, PTEN, PINC, PGR, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RCKY, ROG, RES, SLB, SCCO, SWN, SRDX, TEVA, TXN, TOL, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VLO, WRB, WU, WEX, IYE, ITB, IEZ, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWG, EWY, EWD, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, IXC, ILF, XLE. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AXDXFlag, high and tight      05/20/202206/07/2022Medical Services
AMWDHorn top      05/23/202206/06/2022Building Materials
ANIKBig W      05/06/202206/13/2022Biotechnology
BECNTriple top      05/06/202206/07/2022Retail Building Supply
BIIBDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/09/202206/16/2022Biotechnology
COTYUgly double bottom      05/25/202206/13/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
DDSPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Retail Store
FDXThree Rising Valleys      05/02/202206/13/2022Air Transport
FDPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/24/202206/17/2022Food Processing
GNWTriple top      05/05/202205/27/2022Insurance (Life)
THGTriple top      05/17/202206/08/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HSYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/19/202206/16/2022Food Processing
HONHead-and-shoulders complex top      03/29/202206/07/2022Aerospace/Defense
KMTDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/20/202206/06/2022Metal Fabricating
KLICBroadening top      05/09/202206/02/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
PTENDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/31/202206/08/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PINCTriple top      04/26/202205/26/2022Healthcare Information
PGRDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/31/202206/07/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
SLBDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/31/202206/08/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOWPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022IT Services
LUVThree Falling Peaks      04/21/202206/01/2022Air Transport
TKRTriple top      04/20/202206/07/2022Metal Fabricating
TZOODouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/03/202205/16/2022Internet
UPSDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/13/202206/17/2022Air Transport
VEEVUgly double bottom      05/18/202206/16/2022Healthcare Information

 

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Thursday 6/23/22. The Great Cryptocurrency Drop: Ethereum

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.1% or -16.22 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 622 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 346 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 276 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 238/422 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of Ethereum.

$ $ $

I show a picture of cryptocurrency Ethereum on the weekly scale. I chose that scale to show the large decline the currency has suffered.

The currency peaked in November 2021 at 4891. Today's (Wednesday) close of 1049 means the currency has declined 79% from the peak. Wow.

Of course, the currency can drop more...much more. As the chart shows, in March of 2020, the currency reached a low of about 95.

The red circle shows where I expect the currency to find support. If I'm correct, the currency could drop almost in half to about 600.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 93 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, ACN, AA, AMZN, ABC, AON, APA, AVA, BECN, BKH, BG, CALM, CE, CENX, CVX, CLF, ED, CONN, COP, COTY, CRH, CCK, DVN, EBAY, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EZPW, FLEX, FLS, FCX, IT, GE, HL, HSIC, IBP, TILE, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KMT, LZB, RAMP, MRO, MCO, MLI, MUR, NBR, NKE, NI, JWN, OLN, PPG, RGS, ROK, ROG, RES, SMG, SCCO, SRDX, TDOC, RIG, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, VRTX, WLK, IEZ, IHE, FDN, IAT, SLV, IGE, IEO, EWZ, EWY, EWL, PXJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLU, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  9,557.80    
 Weekly S2  10,275.04  717.24   
 Monthly S1  10,305.44  30.40   
 Weekly S1  10,664.06  358.62   
 Daily S2  10,790.59  126.53   
 Daily S1  10,921.84  131.24   
 Low  10,938.06  16.22   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  10,941.95  3.89   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  10,954.16  12.21   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,044.53  90.37   
 Close  11,053.08  8.55   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  11,069.30  16.22   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,077.42  8.11   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,110.30  32.89   
 Daily R1  11,200.55  90.24   
 High  11,216.77  16.22   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Monthly Pivot  11,312.78  96.01   
 Weekly R1  11,343.18  30.40   
 Daily R2  11,348.01  4.83   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  11,633.28  285.27   
 Monthly R1  12,060.42  427.14   
 Monthly R2  13,067.76  1,007.34   

Wednesday 6/22/22. Buy Low, Sell High Using Smiles and Frowns

Here's a quiz based on the figure to the right.

Imagine that you are trading a stock shown by the curved line in the figure. A and B are at the same price....

Picture of a curve for entering a trade.

Question: Would you rather buy at A or B? Why?

Answer: At A, price is still dropping and it continues to drop after A. Of course, at A, we don't know that price will move lower, but it's a good bet because a trend in motion tends to remain in motion. Buying at A is what happens when you try bottom fishing -- buying as price drops, expecting a reversal after price bounces off the bottom.

Buying at point A is common in bear markets when traders and investors take positions after guessing that the market has finally bottomed and is either reversing or will do so soon. It's a recipe for disaster when the stock continues lower. Often, investors will throw in the towel and sell just days or a few weeks before the stock bottoms. They sell when they should be buying.

Now look at point B. Price is moving up. You missed the bottom, of course, but the sky is the limit on the upside. Buying at B is the higher reward, lower risk entry. It's a momentum play: Buy high and sell higher.

Point B is my preferred entry location.

Go back and look at your trades and determine if you are buying at A or B. If it's hard to tell, then switch to the higher time scale and use a LINE chart instead of candlesticks or price bars. That may help show the trend.

Trading Techniques Exit: The Sell Side

You own the stock pictured in the chart to the right. Both C and D are at the same price.

Picture of a curve for exiting a trade.

Question: Would you rather sell at C or D? Why?

Answer: Price is moving up at C. Why sell if price is rising? Any delay will mean more profit. Often, point C represents the type of exits I take. I think price is going to drop so I exit only to find that price continues to rise after a short retrace.

At D, price has already peaked and is now tumbling. It's time to exit.

If you wait until D to sell, then every delay means a larger loss or less profit. Price drops faster than it rises. I proved that, so it's not idle speculation. If you wait to sell at D and don't get out quickly, you can get whacked. Nevertheless, point D represents my preferred exit.

Today's Markets

I discuss smiles and frowns because you should buy when the stock is smiling and sell when it's frowning. Ask yourself this: Are the stocks you own smiling or frowning?

Most likely, your stock is tumbling. The stocks are smiling not frowning. That means buying now, not selling.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 79 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AES, AYX, AMZN, AMED, AXP, AMGN, ANTM, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, AVA, BSET, BBW, CNC, CVX, CAG, COST, CRH, CCK, DHR, DOV, BOOM, EMR, EL, EXPD, XOM, FDX, FWRD, GPS, GNW, HSC, JBHT, IBP, IPI, IVC, NVTA, LZB, LH, LXU, MNDT, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MTRX, META, MSFT, MCO, NOV, CNR, NFLX, JWN, ORI, PTEN, SLB, SCHW, SXI, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, SLCA, VLO, ZBRA, IYE, IEZ, IGV, IGE, EWK, EWW, EZA, EWU, PXJ, IXC. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/21/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -0.1% or -38.29 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1365 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 713 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 652 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 52.2% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 248/441 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/97 or 48.5% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southern Company: SO, support and resistance stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 183 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, ATSG, AA, AYX, AEP, AFG, AMWD, ABC, AMN, APA, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ARW, ASH, AVNT, AVA, BAX, BECN, BZH, BIG, BIIB, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BBW, BG, CBT, CACI, CE, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CTXS, CMCO, ED, CAG, COP, COST, CR, CROX, CSGS, CTS, CW, DHR, DECK, DVN, DDS, DOV, EXP, EIX, EMR, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FLEX, FLS, FCX, FDP, GME, GNW, GOOGL, EVRG, GES, HOV, JBHT, HURC, ITW, IIIN, IPI, IVC, JKHY, KBH, K, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LAMR, LANC, M, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MGEE, MU, MLI, MUR, NBR, NFG, NXGN, NKE, OLN, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PGR, KWR, QCOM, RGA, RHI, ROK, SLB, SCHW, SMG, SRE, NOW, SKX, SO, SCCO, SR, SXI, TPR, TGT, TEVA, TKR, UGI, VLO, VMI, V, VC, VMC, WAT, WSO, WLK, WMB, WWW, XEL, IYM, IYE, IEZ, IDU, IYZ, IGE, IEO, EWO, EWZ, EWM, EWS, EWT, THD, PXJ, PHO, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLE, XLI, XLB, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  27,319.09    
 Monthly S1  28,603.93  1,284.85   
 Weekly S2  28,737.37  133.44   
 Weekly S1  29,313.08  575.70   
 Daily S2  29,388.97  75.89   
 Daily S1  29,638.87  249.91   
 Low  29,653.29  14.42   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  29,849.73  196.44   
 Close  29,888.78  39.05   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  29,903.20  14.42   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  29,910.40  7.21   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  29,912.70  2.29   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  29,971.08  58.38   
 Daily R1  30,153.10  182.02   
 High  30,167.52  14.42   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly Pivot  30,228.99  61.47   
 Daily R2  30,417.43  188.43   
 Weekly R1  30,804.70  387.27   
 Monthly Pivot  30,938.14  133.44   
 Weekly R2  31,720.61  782.48   
 Monthly R1  32,222.98  502.37   
 Monthly R2  34,557.19  2,334.20   

Friday 6/17/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 304 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ACIW, AYI, AEIS, AFL, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AYX, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APH, APA, APOG, AMAT, ADM, AWI, ARW, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BAX, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BIO, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BG, CBT, CACI, CALM, CE, CVX, CINF, CSCO, CTXS, CLF, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, ED, CONN, COP, GLW, COST, CR, CROX, CCRN, CTS, CMI, CW, DECK, DVN, DDS, DFS, DOV, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FIS, FE, FISV, FLS, FCX, FDP, GME, GPS, IT, GE, GIS, GNW, GPN, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, HBI, THG, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HSIC, HNI, HOV, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, IIIN, ITGR, INTC, IPG, IPI, INTU, JKHY, JBLU, KALU, KBH, K, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, LRCX, LNC, L, LOW, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MAS, MA, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MRK, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MS, MOS, MLI, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, NTAP, NWL, NKE, NI, OGE, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PANW, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PPG, PFG, PGR, PRU, PEG, PHM, KWR, QCOM, RL, RGS, RGA, RHI, ROK, ROST, SLB, SMG, SRE, NOW, SHW, SKX, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SCS, SUM, TFX, TER, TEVA, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TOL, TZOO, TREX, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, VC, VMC, WSO, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, IYM, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IYH, IHF, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWO, EWZ, EWG, EWH, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, TUR, QLD, PXJ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

 

 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AMDPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Semiconductor
AMEDDiamond bottom      06/06/202206/16/2022Medical Services
AFGPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AIGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/31/202206/07/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ANTMPipe top      05/23/202205/31/2022Medical Services
APAPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Petroleum (Producing)
ACGLDiamond top      05/26/202206/07/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AIZThree Falling Peaks      04/21/202205/18/2022Insurance (Diversified)
AXSDouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/31/202206/07/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
BECNPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Retail Building Supply
BMRNThree Falling Peaks      04/08/202205/27/2022Biotechnology
BKHDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/10/202205/26/2022Electric Utility (West)
BABroadening bottom      05/12/202206/14/2022Aerospace/Defense
BKNGPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Internet
BMYDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/18/202205/26/2022Drug
BLDRDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/27/202206/06/2022Retail Building Supply
CDNSPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Computer Software and Svcs
CLSDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/18/202206/06/2022Electronics
CXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/20/202205/31/2022Cement and Aggregates
CFHead-and-shoulders top      03/25/202205/16/2022Chemical (Basic)
CVXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/31/202206/08/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
CINFDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/31/202206/06/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CMTLDead-cat bounce      06/10/202206/10/2022Telecom. Equipment
CCRNUgly double bottom      05/16/202206/13/2022Human Resources
DVNPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
DDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/10/202205/27/2022Electric Utility (East)
DTEDouble Top, Eve and Adam      05/26/202206/07/2022Electric Utility (Central)
ELPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
EVHBroadening top      05/17/202206/02/2022Healthcare Information
FCXPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
GOOGLPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Internet
GFFPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Building Materials
THGDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/27/202206/08/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
HEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/27/202206/08/2022Electric Utility (West)
HSICHead-and-shoulders complex top      05/04/202206/01/2022Medical Supplies
HOLXDouble Top, Adam and Eve      04/08/202205/17/2022Medical Supplies
HONThree Falling Peaks      05/04/202206/07/2022Aerospace/Defense
HOVPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Homebuilding
IEXThree Falling Peaks      03/18/202204/21/2022Machinery
IIINPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Building Materials
JNJThree Falling Peaks      04/25/202206/08/2022Medical Supplies
LEGBroadening bottom      04/20/202206/16/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
LMTBroadening bottom      05/02/202206/15/2022Aerospace/Defense
LOWTriple top      05/27/202206/09/2022Retail Building Supply
LXUPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Building Materials
MANHPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022IT Services
MROPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Petroleum (Integrated)
MLIThree Falling Peaks      03/22/202206/07/2022Metal Fabricating
NBRPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NOVPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NKEPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Shoe
NWPXDouble Top, Eve and Eve      05/24/202206/07/2022Building Materials
OTEXPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022E-Commerce
PFEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/26/202206/08/2022Drug
PPLTriple top      04/21/202206/08/2022Electric Utility (East)
RLPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Apparel
RGATriple top      05/17/202206/07/2022Insurance (Life)
ROKPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Diversified Co.
SHWDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/27/202206/07/2022Chemical (Basic)
SKXPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Shoe
SWNPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Natural Gas (Diversified)
SRTriple top      04/20/202206/07/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
SCSTriple top      05/04/202206/08/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
TECHDiamond top      05/16/202206/08/2022Biotechnology
SLCAThree Falling Peaks      04/18/202205/31/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
UGIPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Natural Gas (Distributor)
VMIDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/27/202206/06/2022Metal Fabricating
VCPipe top      05/31/202206/06/2022Electronics

 

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Thursday 6/16/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq climbed by 2.5% or 270.8 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 34 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 18 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 16 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close higher 52.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 238/421 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 64/135 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The blue line at A shows a strong measure of support which held up the index for days. When the index pierced the line, it did so with gusto and gapped lower.

At B, we see an exhaustion gap form. Since then, the index has been trying to close the gap (meaning retrace until it covers the gap).

The two red lines are almost parallel, forming a channel, but more like an ascending broadening wedge. Those breakout downward 52% of the time, which is about random. That's really no help but since the index is closer to the top line, we can assume an upward breakout is more likely. I'm not sure if that's really a safe assumption or not...

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 83 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AXDX, AKAM, AFG, AMWD, AMN, ANTM, APA, ARCB, ADM, AWI, AIZ, BECN, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BKNG, CHKP, CSCO, CLX, CCRN, CW, DVN, DDS, DSGR, EBAY, FE, FCX, FRD, GME, GOOGL, THG, HSII, HSIC, HOV, INCY, IIIN, IVC, JNJ, KBH, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MDC, MRK, NBR, NXGN, NKE, OTEX, PRFT, PG, PGR, PHM, RGA, REV, RNG, RLI, ROG, SEE, NOW, SLGN, SKX, SRDX, TFX, TOL, TREX, VC, WLK, WDAY, IHF, EWO, EWI, EWW, EWP, EWD, EWL, PXJ, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,175.02    
 Monthly S1  10,637.09  462.06   
 Weekly S2  10,640.48  3.39   Yes! The Weekly S2 is close to the Monthly S1.
 Daily S2  10,692.06  51.59   
 Low  10,866.39  174.33   
 Weekly S1  10,869.81  3.42   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  10,895.61  25.79   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  10,968.40  72.79   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  11,010.74  42.34   
 50% Down from Intraday High  11,055.33  44.59   
 Daily Pivot  11,069.93  14.61   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  11,099.15  29.22   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  11,099.91  0.76   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  11,244.26  144.35   
 Daily R1  11,273.48  29.22   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  11,447.80  174.33   
 Monthly Pivot  11,497.75  49.95   
 Weekly Pivot  11,557.61  59.85   
 Weekly R1  11,786.94  229.34   
 Monthly R1  11,959.82  172.87   
 Weekly R2  12,474.74  514.92   
 Monthly R2  12,820.48  345.75   

Wednesday 6/15/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bearish. That's shown by the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart, which turned bearish from neutral about a week ago.

Today (Tuesday) the indicator bounced off the low and inched higher. It suggests a small measure of hidden strength in the markets. Of course, the Federal Reserve will probably raise interest rates tomorrow. Although the market won't like it, a 3/4 point move could be factored in, so we might see a bounce upward.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 70% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 51%.
The fewest was 11% on 06/15/2021.
And the most was 71% on 06/13/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 455 stocks in my database are down an average of 31% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 23%.
The peak was 10% on 06/15/2021.
And the bottom was 31% on 06/14/2022.

Ouch! Seventy percent of stocks in my database this week are in bear market territory compared to 51% a week ago. That's an increase (worse) of 37 percentage points in a week.

The blue line didn't drop as far as the red one, but it declined 35 percentage points in a week. Both lines this week are making new lows.

If we look at the two chart, both are bearish. The CPI chart has the indicator turning upward, which is a sign of hope. This chart, doesn't show any hint of bullish behavior. My feeling is that the market is a lot closer to the bottom of its drop than it is to the all-time high. All we need to do is hold on, ride out the drop, and buy as close to the bottom as we can. Years from now, when we look back, we'll wish we had the money and the courage to buy more at this level.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 344 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AA, AYX, AMZN, AEE, AXP, AFG, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ASH, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, AXS, AZTA, BCPC, BECN, BZH, BERY, BIG, BIO, BMRN, BKNG, BOOT, BAH, BRC, BMY, BLDR, CBT, CE, CX, CNP, CF, CRL, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CTXS, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CONN, CLR, COTY, CR, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, DOV, DTE, EMN, EBAY, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EVH, EXC, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FAST, FDX, FE, FISV, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FCX, FDP, FRD, GME, GD, GIS, GILD, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HAYN, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HD, DHI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, ITW, INCY, INFN, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, JNJ, KALU, KBH, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LH, LRCX, LEG, LEN, LOW, MANH, MAN, MRO, MAS, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MRK, META, MU, MLKN, MCO, MS, NBR, NFG, NOV, CNR, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NWL, NEU, NEE, NKE, NI, NUS, ASGN, OTEX, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, PPL, PG, PRU, PHM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SRE, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SO, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TGT, TFX, TPX, TER, TXN, TXT, TKR, TRV, TZOO, TG, UGI, VLO, VRSN, VC, WU, WMB, WOLF, WWW, ITA, IYM, IYC, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, USO, SMH, VHT, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/14/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow dropped by -2.8% or -876.05 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 29 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 21 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 8 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 72.4% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 248/440 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/97 or 48.5% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Smith International: SII stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 461 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ADBE, ADTN, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, APD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AA, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AEE, AEL, AXP, AFG, AIG, APH, ANIK, ANTM, APA, APOG, AAPL, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, AWI, ARW, ASH, AGO, ATO, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AZTA, BMI, BCPC, BALL, BECN, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BA, BKNG, BAH, BRC, BFH, BMY, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CE, CLS, CX, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHKP, CVX, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, CR, CRH, CROX, CCK, CSGS, CTS, CMI, CW, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, DRQ, DTE, BOOM, EXP, EMN, EBAY, EIX, EMR, WIRE, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EQT, EL, EVH, EXC, EXPD, XOM, FFIV, FDS, FICO, FAST, FDX, FIS, FE, FISV, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FCX, FDP, FRD, GPS, IT, GD, GE, GPN, GL, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HQY, HSII, HELE, HP, HSIC, HNI, HOLX, HD, HON, DHI, HOV, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, INFN, NSP, IIIN, INTC, IBKR, TILE, IPG, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KFRC, KBAL, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LEG, LDOS, LEN, LLY, LNC, L, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MLM, MAS, MA, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MRK, META, MU, MSFT, MLKN, MCO, MS, MLI, MUR, NBR, ^IXIC, NFG, NOV, CNR, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NEE, NKE, NI, NUS, NVDA, OXY, ORI, OLN, OMC, ASGN, OTEX, OUT, PKG, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PLXS, PPG, PPL, PFG, PRU, PHM, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, RNG, RHI, ROK, RCKY, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SCHW, SEE, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SLGN, SKX, SO, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SRDX, SNPS, TPR, TGT, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TPX, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TKR, TJX, TOL, TZOO, TG, TREX, UGI, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VRSN, VRTX, V, VC, WRB, WAT, WU, WLK, WMB, WOLF, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYC, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, QQQ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLY, XLE, XLF, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLK, XLU, UNG, SMH, VHT, VIS, VAW, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  28,838.37    
 Monthly S1  29,677.55  839.19   
 Weekly S2  29,865.79  188.23   
 Daily S2  29,907.27  41.48   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly S2.
 Weekly S1  30,191.26  284.00   
 Daily S1  30,212.00  20.74   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Weekly S1.
 Low  30,373.72  161.72   
 Close  30,516.74  143.02   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  30,668.31  151.57   
 Daily Pivot  30,678.46  10.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  30,759.31  80.86   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  30,850.31  91.00   
 Daily R1  30,983.19  132.88   
 Open  31,144.91  161.72   
 High  31,144.91  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  31,449.65  304.74   
 Monthly Pivot  31,474.95  25.30   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly Pivot  31,713.32  238.37   
 Weekly R1  32,038.79  325.48   
 Monthly R1  32,314.13  275.34   
 Weekly R2  33,560.85  1,246.71   
 Monthly R2  34,111.53  550.68   

Monday 6/13/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P 500 on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&p 500 index on the daily scale.

Let's go through the patterns from liberal to conservative (that is, left to right). Smiley face

At AB is a confirmed double top. It confirms as a valid pattern when the index closed below the bottom of the pattern (below the valley between A and B).

At CD is the reverse, a double bottom. It confirms as valid when the index closes above the peak between valleys C and D.

Both patterns exceed their measure rule targets (the pattern's height added to (for the double bottom) or subtracted from (the double top) the breakout (or confirmation) price.

More recently, the circle at E shows a weird looking head-and-shoulders bottom. The right shoulder is a bit closer to the head than what I like to see. This pattern didn't reach the target yet. It still might but it hasn't so far.

The diamond-looking pattern is, well, a diamond top. Not only does this pattern look sweet, but it performs well, too. The decline drops below the measure rule target (pattern's height minus the breakout price).

This coming week, I expect to see the indices form a bottom. Because of the strong move lower, I expect a fast rebound. That's all a guess. We could continue lower or just move sideways.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 16.08 points.
Tuesday: Up 264.36 points.
Wednesday: Down 269.24 points.
Thursday: Down 638.11 points.
Friday: Down 880 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1506.91 points or 4.6%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 672.71 points or 5.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 207.68 points or 5.1%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     15.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     2.5% up from the low of 30,635.76 on 05/20/2022.
Nasdaq
     28.5% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     2.8% up from the low of 11,035.69 on 05/20/2022.
S&P 500
     19.0% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     2.4% up from the low of 3,810.32 on 05/20/2022.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  30,946  31,169  31,611  31,835  32,277 
Weekly  30,158  30,775  32,005  32,623  33,853 
Monthly  29,130  30,262  31,767  32,898  34,404 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  3,851  3,876  3,925  3,950  3,999 
Weekly  3,721  3,811  3,990  4,080  4,259 
Monthly  3,596  3,748  3,963  4,115  4,330 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,172  11,256  11,412  11,497  11,653 
Weekly  10,721  11,030  11,638  11,948  12,555 
Monthly  10,255  10,798  11,578  12,120  12,901 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 302 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AYI, AES, AFL, ATSG, AKAM, ALK, AA, ALKS, ALL, AYX, AMZN, DOX, AMED, AEE, AEP, AXP, AFG, AIG, APH, ANTM, AON, AMAT, ACGL, AWI, AIZ, ADSK, ADP, AVY, AVNT, AVA, BMI, BALL, BZH, BBY, BRC, BFH, BLDR, BG, CACI, CDNS, CE, CLS, CX, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CTXS, CLF, CLX, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMTL, GLW, CR, CRH, CROX, CCK, CSGS, CTS, DHR, XRAY, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, BOOM, EXP, EMN, WIRE, EPAM, EFX, EVH, FFIV, FDS, FAST, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FORM, FCX, FRD, GPS, IT, GPN, GL, GS, GPRO, GGG, HBI, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HAYN, HELE, HSIC, HSY, HOLX, HD, HON, IEX, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INCY, INFN, NSP, IBKR, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JKHY, KALU, K, KMT, KLAC, LH, LRCX, LAMR, LDOS, L, MNDT, MLM, MAS, MTRN, META, MU, MSFT, MCO, MS, MOS, NOV, CNR, NTAP, NWL, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NI, ORI, OLN, OMC, OTEX, OUT, PDCO, PAYX, PRFT, PFE, PCG, PGR, PRU, KWR, QCOM, DGX, RL, RMBS, RJF, RGS, RGA, REV, RNG, RHI, ^GSPC, SAIA, SCHW, SEE, SEIC, SMTC, SHW, SO, SCCO, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TFX, TPX, TER, TXN, TXT, TMO, TJX, TRV, UGI, UPS, UNM, VMI, VMC, WRB, WU, WLK, WEX, WMB, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYE, ITB, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FXL, FXI, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, SOXX, IGE, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLB, SPY, XAR, XLK, SMH, VIS, VAW. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Petroleum (Producing)1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Petroleum (Integrated)
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Food Processing6. Electric Utility (Central)
7. Electric Utility (West)7. Aerospace/Defense
8. Electric Utility (Central)8. Electric Utility (West)
9. Short ETFs9. Food Processing
10. Aerospace/Defense10. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Trucking/Transp. Leasing50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
51. Computer Software and Svcs51. Internet
52. Telecom. Equipment52. Toiletries/Cosmetics
53. E-Commerce53. Healthcare Information
54. Semiconductor54. Computer Software and Svcs
55. Retail (Special Lines)55. E-Commerce
56. Semiconductor Cap Equip.56. Semiconductor
57. Toiletries/Cosmetics57. Homebuilding
58. Shoe58. Retail (Special Lines)
59. Homebuilding59. Computers and Peripherals
60. Computers and Peripherals60. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/10/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 83 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AEIS, AJRD, AES, ALKS, AEE, AMWD, ABC, ANTM, APOG, ADSK, AVA, AZTA, BALL, BZH, BBBY, BG, CALM, CAL, CX, CLNE, CLX, CAG, COST, COTY, CCRN, BOOM, FIS, FE, GPN, GES, HOLX, IDXX, ITGR, INTC, ISRG, JKHY, LNC, LOW, MDT, MOS, MYGN, NI, OMC, RMBS, RLI, TFX, TEVA, TSCO, VRTX, WAT, WEX, XEL, IAI, ICF, IAT, IYF, IHI, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, IBB, PBE, IEV, ILF. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AAUgly double bottom      05/12/202205/20/2022Aerospace/Defense
AMZNDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/24/2022Internet
ARCBPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
ADMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/19/2022Food Processing
AVYPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Packaging and Container
BKNGTriple bottom      05/04/202205/24/2022Internet
BGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022Food Processing
CNPDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/02/202205/12/2022Electric Utility (Central)
CHSPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Apparel
CCRNPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Human Resources
DSGRHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/20/202206/03/2022Metal Fabricating
^DJUDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/27/202206/07/2022None
^DJIDiamond top      05/27/202206/08/2022None
FDSDiamond bottom      05/10/202205/24/2022Information Services
FDXFlag      06/01/202206/09/2022Air Transport
FLEXHorn top      04/18/202205/02/2022Electronics
GOOGLPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Internet
GFFFlag, high and tight      04/27/202206/07/2022Building Materials
DHIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/24/2022Homebuilding
HOVHorn bottom      05/09/202205/23/2022Homebuilding
JBHTPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Trucking/Transp. Leasing
IDADiamond top      05/10/202206/09/2022Electric Utility (West)
INTUFlag      05/27/202206/09/2022Computer Software and Svcs
IVCFlag, high and tight      05/25/202206/09/2022Medical Supplies
LHXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/02/202205/20/2022Aerospace/Defense
LRCXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/27/202206/06/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
LDOSTriple bottom      05/03/202205/20/2022IT Services
LMTHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202206/02/2022Aerospace/Defense
LXUDouble Top, Adam and Eve      05/17/202206/02/2022Building Materials
MPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Retail Store
MCHXTriangle, symmetrical      05/09/202206/09/2022Advertising
MTRXPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
JWNPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Retail Store
OMCLTriple bottom      04/28/202205/26/2022Healthcare Information
OXMDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/24/2022Apparel
PPLDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/26/202206/08/2022Electric Utility (East)
^GSPCDiamond top      05/27/202206/08/2022None
SMTCRoof, inverted      04/06/202206/08/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
SCSTriangle, ascending      03/21/202206/09/2022Furn/Home Furnishings
RIGUgly double bottom      05/12/202205/20/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

 

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Thursday 6/9/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.7% or -88.96 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 277 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.9% on 134 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 143 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 238/421 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/134 or 47.0% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of bitcoin.

$ $ $

This is a chart of bitcoin (BTC-USD) on the daily chart.

Pattern 1-2-3 is what looks like a triple top, each number represents a minor high (a peak). It's not a triple top because it never confirmed at a valid pattern.

By that, I mean the coin didn't close below A. Instead, it closed above the top of the pattern to reach a high near B.

At C, we see a descending triangle. This is a valid chart pattern. We see at D, the coin closed below the bottom of the triangle. Instead of continuing down, the coin climbed and busted the triangle when it closed above the top of the triangle. A busted pattern often suggests a move higher, part of which we see on the rise after D. However, I don't know if we'll see a move higher or not. My guess: Yes, we will see a rise, but it could form a second bottom first.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 58 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, ANTM, ARW, BAH, CPB, CX, CHS, CR, DSGR, ^DJU, BOOM, EXP, GME, HIG, HAYN, HURC, IDA, INCY, INTC, IPG, IVC, JAZZ, MAN, MRK, CNR, NUS, PNW, POR, RMBS, RGA, SAIC, SIGI, SR, TPX, RIG, SLCA, WRB, XEL, IDU, FXI, EWK, EEM, EWM, DBA, PXJ, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,086.34    
 Monthly S1  11,086.30  999.97   
 Weekly S2  11,683.92  597.61   
 Weekly S1  11,885.09  201.18   
 Daily S2  11,941.84  56.74   
 Daily S1  12,014.05  72.22   
 Monthly Pivot  12,035.66  21.60   
 Low  12,052.70  17.04   Yes! The Low is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Close  12,086.27  33.57   
 Weekly Pivot  12,102.61  16.34   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,122.64  20.03   
 Daily Pivot  12,124.92  2.28   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,144.24  19.32   
 Open  12,147.28  3.04   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,165.84  18.56   
 Daily R1  12,197.13  31.29   
 High  12,235.78  38.65   
 Weekly R1  12,303.78  68.00   
 Daily R2  12,308.00  4.21   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  12,521.30  213.30   
 Monthly R1  13,035.62  514.33   
 Monthly R2  13,984.98  949.35   

Wednesday 6/8/22. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is still bullish this week as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows.

Notice how the index seems to be rounding over. Could be that it's just gathering steam for another push higher. Or it could be that it's tired; what doesn't go up, falls.

I think this pattern serves as a warning that we might see the index retrace and form a second bottom before we get a sustained rise.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 51% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 56%.
The fewest was 11% on 06/15/2021.
And the most was 65% on 05/11/2022.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 455 stocks in my database are down an average of 23% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 24%.
The peak was 9% on 06/08/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 05/11/2022.

Both the red and blue lines show a sustained recovery from the early May low. Certainly we see improvement from the snapshot taken a week ago.

The red line shows a double bottom pattern, confirmed, suggesting a move higher and that's what we've seen. If the measure rule holds true (height of the double bottom added to the top of it), then we've got a bit more of a rise to come yet.

The prior chart is bullish but showing signs of aging and this one is bullish, too, but near its target. This is a time for caution, I think. Earnings will come out soon, so that's going to bounce the market around.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 169 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AMD, AFL, AMN, ANTM, APA, ATR, AVNT, AZTA, BALL, BSET, BECN, BBY, BA, BOOT, BFH, CDNS, CE, CX, CRL, CTXS, CLX, COP, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CW, DVN, DOV, EXP, EIX, EMR, EOG, EQT, EL, FISV, FTNT, GME, GD, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HSY, HOLX, HON, IEX, ITW, IPAR, IPG, INTU, JKHY, JAZZ, KSS, KLIC, LHX, LH, LDOS, LMT, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MLM, MA, MTRN, MDC, MU, MSFT, MCO, MS, MOS, MUR, NOV, NKE, NOC, NUS, OXY, OGE, OMCL, ASGN, PANW, PYPL, PNW, PLXS, PGR, PEG, DGX, RL, RJF, RHI, ROG, SLB, SIGI, NOW, SKX, SCCO, SUM, TGT, TPX, TDC, TKR, TJX, RIG, TG, SLCA, VEEV, VRTX, VMC, WMT, WAT, WEX, WMB, WOLF, WDAY, ITA, IYE, IEZ, IHE, IDU, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, FXI, ICF, IYH, IAT, IGV, IGE, IEO, IYF, IHI, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWM, EWW, EWP, IBB, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, IXC, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLE, XLF, XHB, XLI, XRT, SPY, XAR, XLU, VHT, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/7/22. Slider Trading Quiz!

The Dow climbed by 0.0% or 16.08 points. Since 10/01/1928 the Dow made 1347 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 724 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.6% on 623 occasions.
Expect the Dow to close higher 53.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Dow closing higher has been right 247/439 or 56.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the Dow closing lower has been right 47/97 or 48.5% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring SJW (symbol: SJW) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 118 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AMD, AES, APD, ALK, AYX, AMZN, AIG, ATR, ARCB, AWI, AGO, ADSK, AVY, BSET, BZH, BBY, BIIB, BAH, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CE, CRL, CHS, CHD, CAG, GLW, COST, CCK, CSGS, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, BOOM, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, FFIV, FLEX, FDP, GME, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, HQY, DHI, HOV, JBHT, NSP, IVC, JAZZ, KBH, LZB, LMT, LOW, MHO, M, MCHX, MDC, MLKN, MLI, NTAP, NJR, NWL, NEE, JWN, NOC, OMCL, PKG, PATK, KWR, RGA, ROK, ROG, ROST, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SMTC, SWX, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, TG, UPS, VRTX, WSM, WWW, IYC, FXI, EWZ, EWH, EWI, EWP, IBB, DBA, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, ILF, XLY, XRT, UNG, VIS. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  29,074.45    
 Monthly S1  30,995.11  1,920.67   
 Weekly S2  32,136.27  1,141.16   
 Weekly S1  32,526.03  389.75   
 Monthly Pivot  32,556.43  30.40   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S2  32,574.35  17.92   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily S1  32,745.06  170.71   
 Low  32,819.50  74.44   
 Weekly Pivot  32,899.18  79.68   
 Close  32,915.78  16.60   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  32,978.36  62.58   
 Daily Pivot  32,990.21  11.85   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,027.43  37.22   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  33,032.04  4.61   Yes! The Open is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,076.51  44.47   
 Daily R1  33,160.93  84.43   
 High  33,235.37  74.44   
 Weekly R1  33,288.94  53.57   
 Daily R2  33,406.09  117.15   
 Weekly R2  33,662.09  256.01   
 Monthly R1  34,477.09  815.00   
 Monthly R2  36,038.41  1,561.31   

Monday 6/6/22. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

At ABC, the index formed a triple bottom. The index confirmed the pattern as a valid one when it closed above the red line D. Price coasted up to G before dropping.

If you measure the height of the pattern from C (lowest bottom) to D and add it to D, it falls short of the expected target at G.

At EF, a double bottom appears and confirmed when price gapped up on the way to H.

Will the index continue higher this week?

My guess? Yes, it will. The knot it just formed should pose a support/resistance area should price return to it. Of course, the index is still within the knot now. I'm expecting it to soar out of the knot this week.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Down 222.84 points.
Wednesday: Down 176.89 points.
Thursday: Up 435.05 points.
Friday: Down 348.58 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 313.26 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 118.4 points or 1.0%.
The S&P 500 index was down 49.7 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     11.0% down from the high of 36,952.65 on 01/05/2022.
     7.4% up from the low of 30,635.76 on 05/20/2022.
Nasdaq
     24.2% down from the high of 15,852.14 on 01/04/2022.
     8.9% up from the low of 11,035.69 on 05/20/2022.
S&P 500
     14.7% down from the high of 4,818.62 on 01/04/2022.
     7.8% up from the low of 3,810.32 on 05/20/2022.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  32,662  32,781  32,958  33,077  33,255 
Weekly  32,131  32,515  32,894  33,278  33,657 
Monthly  29,069  30,984  32,551  34,466  36,033 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,073  4,091  4,117  4,135  4,161 
Weekly  4,016  4,062  4,120  4,166  4,224 
Monthly  3,578  3,843  4,076  4,341  4,573 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  11,848  11,930  12,049  12,131  12,250 
Weekly  11,659  11,836  12,078  12,255  12,497 
Monthly  10,062  11,037  12,011  12,987  13,960 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 85 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, APD, AKAM, ALK, AMZN, AIG, ANIK, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADSK, AVY, BSET, BZH, BBY, BLDR, CALM, CRL, CHS, CNO, GLW, COST, DDS, ^DJT, EBAY, EXPD, FFIV, FIS, FORM, FDP, GOOGL, GPRO, HSC, DHI, HOV, JBHT, INFN, NSP, IVC, JAZZ, KBH, LZB, LDOS, LOW, MHO, M, MNDT, MCHX, MDC, MDT, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, JWN, NOC, PKG, KWR, ROST, SAIA, SMG, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, WSM, ZBRA, IYC, IHI, ECH, EWM, PEJ, PXJ, XLY, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment1. Petroleum (Producing)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Integrated)
3. Petroleum (Integrated)3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Natural Gas (Diversified)4. Natural Gas (Diversified)
5. Natural Gas (Distributor)5. Natural Gas (Distributor)
6. Electric Utility (Central)6. Electric Utility (Central)
7. Aerospace/Defense7. Electric Utility (West)
8. Electric Utility (West)8. Short ETFs
9. Food Processing9. Electric Utility (East)
10. Insurance (Prop/Casualty)10. Food Processing
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Semiconductor Cap Equip.50. Retail Store
51. Internet51. Trucking/Transp. Leasing
52. Toiletries/Cosmetics52. Computer Software and Svcs
53. Healthcare Information53. Homebuilding
54. Computer Software and Svcs54. Apparel
55. E-Commerce55. Internet
56. Semiconductor56. Healthcare Information
57. Homebuilding57. E-Commerce
58. Retail (Special Lines)58. Computers and Peripherals
59. Computers and Peripherals59. Shoe
60. Shoe60. Retail (Special Lines)

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/3/22. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AFL, APD, ALRM, ALK, ALL, AYX, AMZN, AFG, AIG, AMGN, AON, AAPL, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, AGO, ADSK, AVY, AVA, AXS, BCPC, BSET, BAX, BZH, BBY, BIO, BOOT, BRC, BLDR, CDNS, CALM, CENX, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CLNE, CNO, CONN, GLW, COST, CROX, XRAY, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EBAY, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FCX, FDP, GME, GOOGL, GPRO, HLIT, HQY, HON, DHI, HOV, JBHT, NSP, IPAR, IVC, JAZZ, JNJ, KBH, KFRC, KLAC, LZB, RAMP, LOW, MHO, M, MNDT, MANH, MDC, FB, MU, ^IXIC, NFLX, NTAP, NJR, NWL, JWN, NUS, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OTEX, PKG, PANW, PYPL, KWR, RNG, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, CRM, SMG, NOW, SCCO, SNPS, TDOC, TER, TMO, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, VEEV, WU, WSM, WWW, ZBRA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, QQQ, IAT, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EIS, QLD, PEJ, IXN, SSO, XLY, GLD, XLB, XRT, SPY, XLK, UNG, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDUgly double bottom      05/12/202205/25/2022Electronics
ACIWTriple bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022IT Services
ADTNTriangle, symmetrical      05/05/202205/24/2022Telecom. Equipment
AEISDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/10/202205/24/2022Semiconductor
AMDUgly double bottom      05/12/202205/20/2022Semiconductor
ALKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/24/2022Air Transport
ALKSDiamond top      05/17/202206/02/2022Drug
AMZNHorn bottom      05/09/202205/23/2022Internet
AMNPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Human Resources
AWIDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/24/2022Building Materials
ADSKDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/23/2022Computer Software and Svcs
AZTAUgly double bottom      05/10/202205/24/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
BMIDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/12/202205/20/2022Precision Instrument
BERYPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Packaging and Container
BFHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022Information Services
CBTDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      04/07/202205/10/2022Chemical (Diversified)
CDNSPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Computer Software and Svcs
CEUgly double bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022Chemical (Basic)
CLFPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Metals and Mining (Div.)
CMTLTriangle, symmetrical      05/02/202206/01/2022Telecom. Equipment
CRDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/20/2022Diversified Co.
XRAYUgly double bottom      05/10/202205/20/2022Medical Supplies
DRQHorn bottom      04/25/202205/09/2022Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
ELTriple bottom      05/03/202205/25/2022Toiletries/Cosmetics
FASTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/19/2022Retail Building Supply
FDXHead-and-shoulders bottom      04/07/202205/19/2022Air Transport
FLEXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/24/2022Electronics
FLSHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/03/202205/20/2022Machinery
FORMRising wedge      04/27/202206/02/2022Semiconductor
FRDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/11/202205/25/2022Building Materials
ITTriple bottom      05/09/202205/24/2022IT Services
GEHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202205/24/2022Diversified Co.
HPHorn bottom      04/25/202205/09/2022Petroleum (Producing)
DHIHorn bottom      05/09/202205/23/2022Homebuilding
ITWTriangle, symmetrical      05/02/202206/02/2022Metal Fabricating
IPITriangle, symmetrical      05/12/202206/02/2022Chemical (Diversified)
NVTATriangle, descending      05/12/202206/02/2022Medical Services
JKHYPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022IT Services
KLICPipe bottom      04/25/202205/02/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
MANHTriple bottom      05/12/202205/25/2022IT Services
MUTriple bottom      04/27/202205/25/2022Semiconductor
MCOPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Information Services
MSPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Securities Brokerage
MOSTriangle, symmetrical      05/04/202206/02/2022Chemical (Diversified)
MYGNUgly double bottom      05/10/202205/19/2022Biotechnology
^IXICHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022None
NKEDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/25/2022Shoe
NVDADouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/20/2022Semiconductor
PAYXDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/20/2022IT Services
PLXSBroadening top      05/04/202205/31/2022Electronics
KWRPipe bottom      05/16/202205/23/2022Chemical (Specialty)
RMBSDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/25/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
RJFTriple bottom      05/12/202205/25/2022Securities Brokerage
^GSPCHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022None
CRMDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/24/2022E-Commerce
SAICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022IT Services
NOWTriple bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022IT Services
LUVDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/25/2022Air Transport
SSYSUgly double bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022Electronics
SUMDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/12/202205/24/2022Cement and Aggregates
TPRUgly double bottom      05/11/202205/25/2022Apparel
TERDouble Bottom, Eve and Eve      05/12/202205/20/2022Semiconductor Cap Equip.
TXTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      05/12/202205/20/2022Diversified Co.
TMOHorn bottom      04/25/202205/09/2022Precision Instrument
TJXPipe bottom      05/09/202205/16/2022Retail Store
VEEVHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202205/24/2022Healthcare Information
VCUgly double bottom      04/26/202205/12/2022Electronics
WRBTriple bottom      05/02/202205/20/2022Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
WUHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/02/202205/20/2022Financial Services
WOLFDouble Bottom, Adam and Eve      05/12/202205/24/2022Semiconductor
WWWUgly double bottom      05/11/202205/24/2022Shoe
MGKHead-and-shoulders bottom      05/12/202205/25/2022None

 

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Thursday 6/2/22. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The Nasdaq dropped by -0.7% or -86.93 points. Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 276 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 133 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 143 occasions.
Expect the Nasdaq to close lower 51.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing higher has been right 238/421 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the Nasdaq closing lower has been right 63/133 or 47.4% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The chart pattern shown here isn't a trendline that I'm focused on, but a bump-and-run reversal top. The lead-in phase is at A. That's a short and tight move that follows an up-sloping trendline.

B is the bump phase. It suggests, but does not guarantee, price will head lower and pierce the trendline. The plunge could be substantial, about the height of the bump applied below the trendline. If that were to happen, it would take the index down to about 11,200.

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Here's a symbol list of 193 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ACIW, AFL, ALK, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AIG, ABC, AMGN, AON, ATR, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, AWI, ARW, ADSK, AVY, AVNT, BSET, BAX, BZH, BBY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BLDR, BG, CALM, CF, CRL, CHS, CINF, CTSH, CL, CONN, GLW, COST, COTY, CR, CSGS, DHR, DDS, DSGR, ^DJT, BOOM, EBAY, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FICO, FIS, FDP, FRD, GE, GS, GOOGL, GPRO, GGG, GES, HLIT, HSC, HIG, HE, HAYN, HQY, HELE, HSIC, HNI, HON, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, NSP, ITGR, INTC, IPAR, IPG, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KELYA, KBAL, KMB, KSS, KLIC, LZB, LEN, LOW, MHO, M, MNDT, MAN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MU, MCO, MS, NFLX, NTAP, NWL, JWN, ORI, ASGN, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PETS, PFE, PPL, PG, PEG, PHM, KWR, RGA, REV, RNG, ROG, ROST, SAIA, CRM, SMG, SEE, SEIC, SLGN, SKX, LUV, SRDX, TPR, TFX, TDC, TER, TXN, TKR, TOL, TSCO, TZOO, VFC, WSO, WU, WSM, WWW, IAI, IYC, ITB, DDM, SLV, IHI, EWZ, ECH, EWG, EWM, EWL, THD, EWU, PEJ, PJP, XLY, XLI, XRT, UNG, VIS, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2022 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  10,038.11    
 Weekly S2  10,700.35  662.25   
 Monthly S1  11,016.28  315.93   
 Weekly S1  11,347.41  331.12   
 Daily S2  11,708.10  360.69   
 Weekly Pivot  11,739.53  31.43   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  11,851.28  111.75   
 Low  11,901.43  50.15   
 Close  11,994.46  93.03   
 Monthly Pivot  12,013.87  19.41   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  12,029.98  16.11   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  12,044.61  14.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  12,069.68  25.07   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  12,109.39  39.71   
 Open  12,176.89  67.50   
 Daily R1  12,187.79  10.90   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  12,237.94  50.15   
 Daily R2  12,381.12  143.18   
 Weekly R1  12,386.59  5.47   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Weekly R2  12,778.71  392.13   
 Monthly R1  12,992.04  213.33   
 Monthly R2  13,989.63  997.58   

Wednesday 6/1/22. 2022 Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2022 forecast, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year-to-date performance as of 31 May 2022 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+58%)
3. Utilities (5%)
2. Consumer staples (-3%)
4. Materials (-4%)
5. Health care (-5%)
8. Financials (-9%)
7. Industrials (-10%)
6. Real estate (-14%)
9. Information technology (-19%)
11. Communication services (-25%)
10. Consumer discretionary (-25%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order, as of 5/27/22.

1. Information technology (IT)
2. Health care
4. Financials
3. Consumer discretionary
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
10. Utilities
11. Materials
9. Real estate

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. One-year change, as of 5/27. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

2. Oil, gas and consumable fuels (+73%)
1. Energy equipment and services (+59%)
9. Construction and engineering (+31%)
7. Pharmaceuticals (+22%)
6. Health care technology (20%)
5. Health care providers and services (+18%)
New. Multi-utilities (+17%)
10. Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals (17%)
New. Electric utilities (16%)
New. Automobiles (13%)

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Here's a symbol list of 69 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ATSG, AA, AYX, AMZN, AEO, ADM, BIIB, CACI, CENX, CRL, CVX, CONN, COTY, FFIV, FDS, FCX, FRD, HP, HOLX, NSP, IBKR, JAZZ, MRO, MGEE, MOS, MYGN, PTEN, REV, RNG, RLI, SAIA, CRM, SLB, SKX, SCCO, TPR, TKR, VFC, VMI, VRTX, WEX, IYC, IEZ, FXI, IHF, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWH, EWM, EZA, EWY, EWT, TUR, EWU, DBA, PBE, PXJ, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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