As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Released 4/29/2022.
Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on Thursday April 29. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
Not quite two weeks ago, the CPI flipped from bullish or neutral to bearish. It's been bearish since as the red vertical bar on the far right of the chart shows.
The CPI line at the bottom of the chart is at or near 0, suggesting there's more of a down move to come. However, that line rarely sits that low for long.
The prediction is in red. Notice that it peaked in mid March and predicts weakness going into July.
The forecast in red peaked in March (A) and began dropped toward an expected low in July (B).
The index peaked about 6-weeks after the forecast. We'll have to wait to see if it'll really continue down until July.
This chart of the Nasdaq shows better timing. A and B (the relative peaks) are close on the time scale. Again, the forecast is for a decline going into July.
This chart also shows good timing (A versus B). The forecast also looks for a decline into July followed by a slow recovery to year end. It predicts a close below the open for the year.
The message for this year is to buy the dip, just don't do it anytime soon. That's if the forecast is correct. Maybe nibbling now will be profitable but that's just a guess on my part.
This is the 4-year forecast of the Dow Industrials starting from January 2022, weekly scale.
The forecast peaked in March, well after the January peak in the index. If the forecast is accurate, look for a decline that bottoms in July. After that, look at the rise.
The first two blue lines mark a sideways move in the forecast. The middle and right line shows a resumption of the uptrend.
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