As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%	Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

As of 11/22/2024   Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%     Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%     Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%     Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%     S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%	YTD  +17.5%    +9.2%    +21.0%    +26.6%    +25.1%
Targets    Overview: 11/12/2024     46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/2024   18,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/2024   1,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/2024   20,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/2024   6,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 11/20/24

Friday 1/31/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 596 stocks searched, or 3.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 4 bullish chart patterns this week and 10 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/23/2020 and 01/30/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 256 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $208.37

1 Month avg volatility: $2.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $199.86 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.04%

Volume: 1,579,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,995,040 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/19/2019 to 01/30/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Information Services

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 576 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $107.18

1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $113.10 or 5.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -4.47%

Volume: 2,129,300 shares. 3 month avg: 546,969 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/13/2019 to 01/24/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 121 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $136.11

1 Month avg volatility: $2.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $125.50 or 7.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 4.04%

Volume: 656,200 shares. 3 month avg: 661,129 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 12/03/2019 to 01/27/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 382 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $29.83

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.66 or 6.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.95%

Volume: 513,100 shares. 3 month avg: 255,535 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/29/2020 to 01/29/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 381 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $59.35

1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $62.08 or 4.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.37%

Volume: 192,400 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/13/2020 to 01/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 524 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $35.06

1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.33 or 3.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.91%

Volume: 12,412,500 shares. 3 month avg: 8,868,903 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 10/25/2019 to 01/28/2020

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 366 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $55.64

1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.91 or 4.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -3.07%

Volume: 112,500 shares. 3 month avg: 88,880 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/13/2020 to 01/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 47 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $60.30

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.71 or 4.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.31%

Volume: 2,413,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 12/12/2019 to 01/28/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 184 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $19.46

1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.77 or 6.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -5.85%

Volume: 69,400 shares. 3 month avg: 102,372 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/13/2020 to 01/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 59 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $172.92

1 Month avg volatility: $3.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $183.00 or 5.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.95%

Volume: 1,444,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,563,420 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/23/2019 to 01/30/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 556 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $15.64

1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.76 or 7.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -9.33%

Volume: 2,979,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/13/2020 to 01/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 501 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $15.99

1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.91 or 5.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -1.72%

Volume: 85,200 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 09/18/2019 to 01/30/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 28 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $45.68

1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.64 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.73%

Volume: 3,302,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,812,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 12/11/2019 to 01/28/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 104 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $87.78

1 Month avg volatility: $2.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $91.86 or 4.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.51%

Volume: 8,347,700 shares. 3 month avg: 12,234,022 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/13/2020 to 01/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 143 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $93.33

1 Month avg volatility: $2.06. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $87.64 or 6.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.20%

Volume: 946,100 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/06/2020 to 01/27/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 437 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $46.93

1 Month avg volatility: $0.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.56 or 7.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.22%

Volume: 2,313,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,461,508 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 12/27/2019 to 01/29/2020

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 65 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $45.16

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.01 or 4.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.30%

Volume: 1,183,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 12/09/2019 to 01/24/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 479 out of 591

1/30/20 close: $108.00

1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $116.88 or 8.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -7.74%

Volume: 9,468,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,659,363 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 10/31/2019 to 01/24/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Thursday 1/30/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The red line (A) shows where price was before the big plunge 3 days ago and where the index stands today.

At the open, it climbed above the red line, closing the gap. However, the index couldn't hold the gain and slumped late in the session.

To me, this shows weakness, but it might be normal rise/retrace behavior as price recovers. However, one can say that 9325 appears to be a resistance area based on the index reaching that level twice today and falling back. Will three times be the charm to push through that resistance? Or perhaps the index will make another plunge downward Time will answer that question.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/29/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

As the chart shows, the indicator turned bearish two days ago (that is, Tuesday when the big plunge occurred). The way the indicator is constructed, it seems the signal happened the day before.

Sigh.

That's just the way the indicator works. It can issue these signals for up to a week, falsely claiming to turn before a big market event.

Regardless, the signal is bearish but it's born from a short-time event, the Chinese virus. I don't think it's a lasting drop (in fact, I'm buying the dip).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines turned down when compared to their respective values a week ago. As I mentioned above, I don't think this is a lasting concern and markets will recover shortly.

I think that's true even if the virus gets worse (which is likely). It's an overblown reaction to a seasonal problem, so I remain bullish.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/28/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the three falling peaks chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/27/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This chart might seem like a repeat of one I've shown before. Indeed, if you click on the link, you'll see a similar chart in the Nasdaq.

However, this chart is of the S&P 500 index, on the daily scale.

The index is rising in a channel. Look at how long this channel has lasted...almost 4 months! It's fattened my wallet and I trust your portfolio has been helped as well.

On Friday, over concerns about the new China virus dampening commerce, the indices stumbled.

While this concern might linger, I don't think it's a show stopper. It won't hold the indices down for long. A temporary setback is easy to say about the China trade war and other foreign affairs because we've seen them before, and recently. But the virus is new. Of course, I was around for SARS but I don't recall the impact on world markets.

I believe any uneasiness will blow over quickly, and it'll be a buying opportunity when the markets bottom.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/24/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 16 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 597 stocks searched, or 2.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/16/2020 and 01/23/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 454 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $117.37

1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $122.05 or 4.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.51%

Volume: 301,000 shares. 3 month avg: 241,254 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is downward 73% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 102 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $15.24

1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.09 or 12.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -8.63%

Volume: 60,800 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 12/20/2019 to 01/22/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 132 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $5.31

1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.64 or 12.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 63.89%

Volume: 305,000 shares. 3 month avg: 99,982 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/12/2019 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 381 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $115.51

1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $110.32 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 4.10%

Volume: 779,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,143,906 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 12/31/2019 to 01/17/2020

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 463 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $42.50

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.90 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.45%

Volume: 1,390,500 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/13/2019 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 10 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $11.28

1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.62 or 14.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 24.64%

Volume: 1,297,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 11/27/2019 to 01/17/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/27/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/26/2020 and a 38% chance by 05/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 472 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $49.09

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.69 or 3.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -1.37%

Volume: 480,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 01/17/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 516 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $71.76

1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.82 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -3.12%

Volume: 568,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/02/2020 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 584 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $92.70

1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $88.13 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.74%

Volume: 340,900 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 12/23/2019 to 01/17/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/04/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/03/2020 and a 38% chance by 05/04/2020.

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 110 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $63.32

1 Month avg volatility: $0.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $61.12 or 3.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.80%

Volume: 39,617,700 shares. 3 month avg: 27,019,903 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 01/02/2020 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 136 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $28.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.26 or 3.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.58%

Volume: 813,500 shares. 3 month avg: 518,337 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 11/15/2019 to 01/22/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 15 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $30.04

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $27.35 or 9.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 12.93%

Volume: 340,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 12/27/2019 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 88 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $59.20

1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.35 or 4.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.08%

Volume: 25,898,400 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Scallop, ascending continuation pattern from 01/09/2020 to 01/23/2020

Breakout is upward 80% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 58% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 428 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $78.75

1 Month avg volatility: $0.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $80.98 or 2.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.80%

Volume: 1,587,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 11/08/2019 to 01/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 404 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $62.54

1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $64.24 or 2.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.97%

Volume: 783,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,012,069 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 01/17/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 577 out of 593

1/23/20 close: $26.63

1 Month avg volatility: $0.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.14 or 5.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.52%

Volume: 645,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,378,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 12/13/2019 to 01/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/08/2019. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 02/07/2020 and a 38% chance by 05/08/2020.

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Thursday 1/23/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is continuing to move higher, following a channel. I drew two red lines outlining the channel.

Notice that at points A and B, the index doesn't drop down far enough to touch the bottom channel line. Thus, we might expect that we'll see a turn upward if the index follows what it's done before. There's no evidence that it'll turn, really. I doubt that it'll be afraid of touching the bottom line.

If it does touch the bottom line, then one could argue that it'll keep going lower. For that, though, we'll have to wait and see.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/22/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator shows a bullish signal as the most recent one. That's the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart.

However, look at the indicator line. That's the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart. It's heading down. It looks to be in the neutral zone right now.

As I've mentioned before in other posts, a big move higher could change the line from down to up, so what you see may not be real for up to a week. Still, if the trend continues, it's bearish.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement over the prior week at this time.

The bad new is, well, there really isn't any except to say that both lines have turned down today.

To me, the charts suggest the indices will retrace a portion of their gains in the coming days.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/21/20. Slider Quiz: Head-and-Shoulders Top

I show a another slider quiz featuring the Head-and-shoulders top chart pattern.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/20/20. Holiday Slider Quiz! Diamond Bottom

I show a another slider quiz featuring the diamond bottom chart pattern.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/17/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 597 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 7 bullish chart patterns this week and 2 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/09/2020 and 01/16/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 193 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $28.78

1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.37 or 8.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.21%

Volume: 1,161,600 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/30/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

1/16/20 close: $17.37

1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.69 or 7.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.23%

Volume: 5,302,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,196,143 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 12/26/2019 to 01/16/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 456 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $2.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.36 or 9.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.11%

Volume: 474,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 01/07/2020 to 01/16/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 327 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $51.60

1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.96 or 5.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.35%

Volume: 168,000 shares. 3 month avg: 127,302 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/18/2019 to 01/16/2020

Breakout is upward 51% of the time.

Average rise: 28%.

Break-even failure rate: 19%.

Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 379 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $46.87

1 Month avg volatility: $1.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.74 or 6.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.09%

Volume: 154,800 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 12/31/2019 to 01/15/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 32%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 12 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $28.49

1 Month avg volatility: $0.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.29 or 7.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.11%

Volume: 420,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/30/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

1/16/20 close: $0.61

1 Month avg volatility: $0.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.78 or 28.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -24.24%

Volume: 116,200 shares. 3 month avg: 105,818 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/10/2020 to 01/13/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 300 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $120.31

1 Month avg volatility: $2.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $124.40 or 3.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.64%

Volume: 397,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 12/18/2019 to 01/16/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 346 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $55.30

1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.47 or 3.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.45%

Volume: 2,950,500 shares. 3 month avg: 5,071,869 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 12/18/2019 to 01/13/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 4 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $92.47

1 Month avg volatility: $2.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $80.53 or 12.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.72%

Volume: 542,600 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 12/30/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 98 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $23.36

1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.81 or 6.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.26%

Volume: 523,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 12/04/2019 to 01/10/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 361 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $41.29

1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.13 or 7.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.34%

Volume: 68,600 shares. 3 month avg: 37,286 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Falling wedge from 12/16/2019 to 01/16/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 32%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Throwbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 258 out of 500

1/16/20 close: $149.69

1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $143.42 or 4.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.54%

Volume: 794,000 shares. 3 month avg: 998,728 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 01/10/2020 to 01/16/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Thursday 1/16/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index over the last week has been rising steadily, following an up-sloping trendline. I show that in red.

Notice at the right end of the line the index has dropped below the trendline. Does it mean the composite is going significantly lower?

Maybe, but probably not. You'll see lots of pierces like this over time. Most don't amount to much. The index will retrace some after a pierce and then resume climbing.

This trendline is comparatively long, so a pierce like the one we see today is more significant than for shorter trendlines. At this stage, I'm not worried. I need to see more technical evidence to get excited.

The blue line is drawn using rules for drawing trendlines outlined by Victor Sperandeo. It shows the index has already pierced the trendline several times and not declined much.

Using his methodology, it's getting close to signaling a trend change. All price needs is to close a bit lower and it'll suggest a downward move of significance is upon us. See the link for more information.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/15/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish (red) bar on the far right of the chart has been replaced by a green bar. That's bullish. It suggests the index will continue higher. But wait...

The signal could disappear. I reminded an e-mailer of that today, in fact. The signal can change for up to a week but is usually solid after three days.

And don't try to trade using this indicator either. Why? Find out here.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The more sensitive of the two lines, the red one, shows improvement this week by one percentage point. That's what I used to see over a year ago until the index went crazy.

So it's a low volatility signal. If that interpretation is correct then a more violent period is coming.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/14/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the triple top chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/13/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Nothing much exciting appears on the chart.

I drew two up-sloping trendlines which hug price peaks on the top and valleys on the bottom. The combination forms a channel.

Right now, the index has touched the top of the channel and has come down some. Will the drop continue?

Hard to tell, but my guess is yes. That's especially true if Iran take further action against the US or its allies.

I don't know if the markets will care much about the impeachment trial which is coming. Maybe Trump will sign the first installment of the China trade pact. The markets might like that.

So there is good news to push the index higher and potential news to push it lower.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 01/10/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/10/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 597 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 10 bullish chart patterns this week and 6 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/02/2020 and 01/09/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

1/9/20 close: $52.28

1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.23 or 3.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.85%

Volume: 3,219,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,185,998 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/25/2019 to 01/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 252 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $27.52

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.30 or 6.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.29%

Volume: 118,800 shares. 3 month avg: 234,063 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, descending reversal pattern from 11/26/2019 to 01/08/2020

Breakout is downward 64% of the time.

Average decline: 16%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 54% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 179 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $43.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.66 or 2.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.66%

Volume: 1,326,300 shares. 3 month avg: 517,168 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Rising wedge reversal pattern from 11/27/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 24%.

Pullbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 46% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 139 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $13.45

1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.43 or 22.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -22.25%

Volume: 40,302,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 01/09/2020 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 362 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $7.06

1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.11 or 14.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -6.05%

Volume: 3,009,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 12/13/2019 to 01/07/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

1/9/20 close: $42.10

1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.87 or 5.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.38%

Volume: 1,905,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/13/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

1/9/20 close: $45.14

1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.54 or 3.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.74%

Volume: 142,200 shares. 3 month avg: 204,923 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/03/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 363 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $56.83

1 Month avg volatility: $1.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $54.33 or 4.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.99%

Volume: 152,800 shares. 3 month avg: 88,880 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 11/11/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 180 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $9.71

1 Month avg volatility: $0.35. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.73 or 10.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -4.52%

Volume: 67,600 shares. 3 month avg: 78,248 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 12/18/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

1/9/20 close: $52.38

1 Month avg volatility: $0.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.27 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.20%

Volume: 3,842,000 shares. 3 month avg: 4,139,065 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 10/10/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 257 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $148.62

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $144.14 or 3.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.03%

Volume: 301,700 shares. 3 month avg: 329,005 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 12/11/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 391 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $174.91

1 Month avg volatility: $2.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $169.08 or 3.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.39%

Volume: 827,600 shares. 3 month avg: 674,168 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 12/10/2019 to 01/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 128 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $162.09

1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $165.60 or 2.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.78%

Volume: 20,485,800 shares. 3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 12/24/2019 to 01/07/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 103 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $52.06

1 Month avg volatility: $0.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $53.42 or 2.6% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.84%

Volume: 7,308,000 shares. 3 month avg: 7,779,832 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/16/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

1/9/20 close: $22.41

1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.51 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.18%

Volume: 1,334,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,253,378 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/05/2019 to 01/06/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 339 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $72.42

1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $79.44 or 9.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -3.98%

Volume: 194,300 shares. 3 month avg: 144,562 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 12/12/2019 to 01/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 18 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $23.69

1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.97 or 7.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.72%

Volume: 520,000 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders complex bottom reversal pattern from 11/05/2019 to 01/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 63% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 268 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $117.93

1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $124.69 or 5.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 0.61%

Volume: 877,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,365,482 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/18/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 40 out of 400

1/9/20 close: $207.17

1 Month avg volatility: $3.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $198.93 or 4.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.22%

Volume: 676,100 shares. 3 month avg: 805,498 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle top continuation pattern from 12/16/2019 to 01/07/2020

Breakout is upward 68% of the time.

Average rise: 39%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 80% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

1/9/20 close: $10.80

1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.86 or 8.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.93%

Volume: 50,100 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 12/18/2019 to 01/09/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Thursday 1/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale, but only for the last 5 days.

Why? Because I wanted to highlight the strong drop near the end of the session. I show that in the chart as the drop from B to A. Notice how it mirrors the rise from C to D.

I drew a red trendline along the bottoms. What does it show?

It suggests there's more space for the index to drop. That is, the space between the trendline at A and price above it.

The above probabilities suggest a higher close. Maybe we'll have both. A drip followed by a rise to close the day higher. The chart pattern indicator is still bearish, though, so I expect weakness.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 1/8/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator has turned bearish, as denoted by the vertical red line on the right of the chart.

Of higher interest is the indicator line near the bottom of the chart. It's taken a dive toward 0, and it started falling well before the red bar appeared.

To me, that's not a good omen. When combined with slide 4 on the yearly forecast, maybe this is the start of the downturn.

Please note that the signal can change for up to a week, meaning it could disappear but it usually stable after 3 trading days.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The two lines remain unchanged from a week ago. I don't know if that's really true because the indicator wasn't run the last two times due to the holidays.

The red line is the more sensitive of the two and it peaked a week ago. That means things are getting worse...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 1/7/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the triple bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 1/6/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

The index seems to be climbing upward following a narrow channel. I highlight that channel by the two nearly-parallel red lines on the chart.

The up-sloping channel shows the index nearing the top of it and backing away. The theory about channels is that price will bounce from one trendline to the other...until it pierces the channel wall.

As you can see, the index continues to bounce between the lines.

There are events which can push the index out of the channel. A war with Iran is one of them. Solution of the China trade war is another.

We'll have to wait and see if the breakout will be upward or down, but you can rest assured that it will happen. When it'll happen is an unanswered question.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 1/3/20. Year-end Review and Forecast to 2024

Here's the 2019 market performance review and forecast of the years 2020 to 2024, presented in a slider format.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday-Thursday 1/1/20. Site Support

Happy new year everyone.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images either along the left side or at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

   So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free, it's easy, and it supports this site.

   Unfortunately, I think this approach only works for those in the United States.

-- Thomas Bulkowski