As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Friday 2/28/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 33 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 5.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 3 bullish chart patterns this week and 23 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/20/2020 and 02/27/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 45 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $60.01

1 Month avg volatility: $2.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $66.18 or 10.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.72%

Volume: 478,800 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 319 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $50.42

1 Month avg volatility: $1.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.36 or 9.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 10.42%

Volume: 797,300 shares. 3 month avg: 950,497 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/18/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 263 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $89.31

1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $96.85 or 8.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.39%

Volume: 1,654,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,185,974 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 411 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $132.94

1 Month avg volatility: $7.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $153.89 or 15.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 32.85%

Volume: 2,011,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 174 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $1,884.30

1 Month avg volatility: $44.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,064.09 or 9.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.97%

Volume: 8,015,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,583,803 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 172 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $86.59

1 Month avg volatility: $2.75. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $98.45 or 13.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.85%

Volume: 2,566,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,046,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/12/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 358 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $37.58

1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.88 or 11.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -20.87%

Volume: 2,032,600 shares. 3 month avg: 894,866 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 67 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $22.99

1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.56 or 15.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -9.52%

Volume: 1,946,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 11/27/2019 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 320 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $65.84

1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $72.27 or 9.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -5.07%

Volume: 2,678,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,769,531 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Household Products

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 462 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $71.86

1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.55 or 7.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.16%

Volume: 2,229,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,023,622 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/24/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 14%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 217 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $62.32

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.16 or 7.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 0.48%

Volume: 5,214,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 225 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $32.25

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.62 or 10.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -19.44%

Volume: 167,600 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 7%.

Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 582 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $17.46

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.53 or 17.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -49.10%

Volume: 12,047,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,946 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/27/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 531 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $41.39

1 Month avg volatility: $1.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.99 or 11.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -29.31%

Volume: 2,441,800 shares. 3 month avg: 697,858 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/25/2020 to 02/25/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 314 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $43.41

1 Month avg volatility: $1.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.15 or 9.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -5.94%

Volume: 1,687,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,005,123 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/06/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 48 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $28.45

1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.92 or 19.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -32.08%

Volume: 4,283,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/27/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 63 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $173.92

1 Month avg volatility: $5.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $191.79 or 10.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.00%

Volume: 488,900 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 446 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $118.01

1 Month avg volatility: $1.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $128.18 or 8.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -9.13%

Volume: 2,247,800 shares. 3 month avg: 979,609 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 14%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 490 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $35.04

1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $38.78 or 10.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.96%

Volume: 16,110,500 shares. 3 month avg: 8,868,903 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 336 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $70.25

1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.07 or 9.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -6.84%

Volume: 2,109,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/22/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 21 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $9.25

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.84 or 17.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.21%

Volume: 1,102,100 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 01/17/2020 to 02/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/27/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/27/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 262 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $138.87

1 Month avg volatility: $3.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $152.65 or 9.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.16%

Volume: 4,392,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 426 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $44.43

1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.03 or 14.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -14.68%

Volume: 3,978,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/27/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 385 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $12.86

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.02 or 14.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.40%

Volume: 11,874,000 shares. 3 month avg: 6,164,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 579 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $10.66

1 Month avg volatility: $0.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.11 or 23.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -53.67%

Volume: 2,637,500 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/26/2020 to 02/27/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 25 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $6.77

1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8.04 or 18.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -14.74%

Volume: 4,017,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 52 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $68.81

1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $76.32 or 10.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.09%

Volume: 544,800 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/24/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 503 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $20.23

1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.93 or 18.3% above the close.

Change YTD: 25.42%

Volume: 3,878,800 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 71 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $66.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.48 or 11.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.95%

Volume: 158,500 shares. 3 month avg: 160,228 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Household Products

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 415 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $113.50

1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $123.94 or 9.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -9.13%

Volume: 13,296,800 shares. 3 month avg: 7,163,346 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/21/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 289 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $136.83

1 Month avg volatility: $3.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $149.23 or 9.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -1.70%

Volume: 1,840,100 shares. 3 month avg: 998,728 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/10/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 237 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $43.75

1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.99 or 10.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.97%

Volume: 10,247,000 shares. 3 month avg: 2,043,012 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 12/20/2019 to 02/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/01/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/31/2020.

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 568 out of 590

2/27/20 close: $3.05

1 Month avg volatility: $0.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.01 or 31.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -53.51%

Volume: 6,747,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/21/2020 to 02/24/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Thursday 2/27/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Trading Range

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This week, I wanted to zoom into the Nasdaq's price action, so I show only the last 5 days.

A few things become visible. The horizontal red line shows where I expect overhead resistance to appear. The resistance is formed by the peaks shown on the chart, the ones which touch the line.

The green line, also a horizontal one, shows support. It's had three tests of that line and price is moving horizontally during the last hour or so, as if trying to decide which way to go.

Because it's closer to support, one might guess that the index will rise. The above probabilities also support that notion.

At AB is a double bottom. It confirms and reaches the measure rule target by rising to C. The MR target is the height of the pattern added to the top of it, in this case.

I've been thinking about what I wrote yesterday, about the market bottoming in a V-shaped turn. With news of the virus spreading, this might be a drip, drip, drip of bad news each day, helping to keep the markets from skyrocketing. Thus, we might bottom and move sideways, probably with large daily up and down swings until this all gets sorted out.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/26/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I discussed the CPI chart yesterday, so there's not much to add today. We saw the Dow drop again, over three percent, today (Tuesday).

Where's the bottom? We'll know for sure after its in place. Before that, everyone is guessing. However, I'm still convinced that this is a buying opportunity. And I think others feel the same. That means this is going to be a V-shaped bottom. So expect the market to rebound sharply....when it does turn.

However, when will it turn upward is a puzzle. We might see the market continue to drop on Wednesday. The close near Tuesday's low suggests more of a down move coming at the open. But things can change. Clearly the market will drop to a point that it's too cheap to pass up and the smart money will pounce. Then you'll see the market go up by a thousand points in one frenzy buying session. Those who sold will be saying, "I should have held on instead of selling near the bottom."

Drops like this are buying opportunities. This is when you don't follow the crowd and sell everything. I'm not saying more pain is coming. I don't know. But I like buying stocks on sale, at 6.5% off (so far).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The above statistics show the largest drop I've seen since I've been posting these numbers. A 14 percentage point drop in a week (red line) and 7 percentage points for the blue line. Wow.

If you look at the chart, you'll see bearish divergence. I show that on this chart with the up-sloping line in the index and the two red lines on the indicators.

The bearish divergence means weakness, which we're seeing now.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/25/20. Market Forecast Update!

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I was going to post another slider quiz, but I thought you'd want to know my views on the market.

I'm still bullish. I think the Covid-19 virus may have peaked in China (they said new cases have leveled off), suggesting it's on its way to burning itself out. But that could still mean a bumpy ride from here as other countries try to contain their problems. I think in a few month's time, this drop will be a memory.

In other words, this is a buy-the-dip opportunity. The market might see some panic selling at the open, and if the above average loss is correct (down 2.6%), Tuesday is going to be nasty. I believe the smart money is going to sit back, wait for the market to bottom, and then buy (but maybe not tomorrow, but they will...soon).

Here's a tip you may find useful, but I don't know if it applies to Monday's big drop. Stocks that dropped the most during a bear market bounce back further than do those that retained more of their value on the way down. See Price Recovery for more information.

Here's what the indices have done so far this year, as of Friday's close and Monday's close.

The following table is a list of the five best and worst performing industries (that I follow) over the last six months, including Monday's big drop.

To update the forecast, which I usually do at month's end, I am doing today. Click this link to view the results in slider format. It shows the current chart pattern indicator graph, and updates the 2020 forecast for the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P indices.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/24/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

Here's an interesting picture of the Dow transports on the daily scale. Why is it unusual?

Because I mirrored the left side of the chart onto the right.

When I first looked at the chart, I was struck with symmetry. Fortunately, I wasn't hurt.

By that I mean peaks on the left mirrored those on the right. Now that I look at it, I'm scratching my head where the symmetry went to. Apparently, it hit me harder than I understood.

Anyway, I reflected the left portion and pasted it into the chart to the right of the vertical red line.

The index might follow this waveform, but probably won't be an exact copy.

If it does follow this chart, then we're looking for a big drop coming. That idea also follows the 2020 forecast. That forecast has the Dow industrials (not the transports), falling to 26,446 by March. It's at about 29,000 now, so that's a big plunge.

Hold on tight...

Concern is growing that the Covid-19 virus could become much worse worldwide, hurting commerce. I'm still not concerned, but what do I know?

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 2/21/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 10 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 1.7%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/13/2020 and 02/20/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 398 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $88.46

1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $85.36 or 3.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.84%

Volume: 3,657,500 shares. 3 month avg: 6,008,617 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/29/2020 to 02/20/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 525 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $14.76

1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.90 or 7.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 0.41%

Volume: 7,056,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Rectangle bottom continuation pattern from 12/11/2019 to 02/20/2020

Breakout is downward 55% of the time.

Average decline: 14%.

Break-even failure rate: 16%.

Pullbacks occur 69% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 50% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 547 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $25.10

1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.58 or 10.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -9.06%

Volume: 201,700 shares. 3 month avg: 234,063 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 02/13/2020 to 02/20/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 309 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $6.11

1 Month avg volatility: $0.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.70 or 39.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.29%

Volume: 2,051,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 278 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $43.30

1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.03 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.88%

Volume: 264,500 shares. 3 month avg: 325,852 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/20/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 512 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $14.22

1 Month avg volatility: $0.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.81 or 11.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -40.13%

Volume: 778,100 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/14/2020 to 02/14/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Electric Utility (Central)

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 518 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $25.72

1 Month avg volatility: $0.50. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $27.39 or 6.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -5.68%

Volume: 9,634,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 02/14/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 491 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $46.85

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $48.55 or 3.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.31%

Volume: 20,279,300 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/20/2019 to 02/20/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 562 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $50.03

1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.42 or 10.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.85%

Volume: 111,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 2 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $157.99

1 Month avg volatility: $4.71. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.08 or 27.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 89.16%

Volume: 7,045,600 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/20/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 517 out of 590

2/20/20 close: $4.30

1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.75 or 12.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.86%

Volume: 2,066,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 09/12/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 03/12/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Thursday 2/20/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index is rounding over. I show that curve at B, a nice and gentle move. But it suggests the easing will continue, meaning the index will go down.

Support rests within the two horizontal lines at A. I drew it loosely, touching peaks and valleys and wasn't concerned with the index slicing through price. If the index were to drop, I'd expect it to find support within the lines.

Having written that, it's possible that the index is pausing, regrouping strength to power to a new high. The above probabilities say there's a 65% chance of that happening. So maybe it will. But to me, the rounded turn looks like weakness. I'll let you and the markets be the final judge as to what direction the index will take.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/19/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart still stands and because it's been there longer than a week, it's not going away.

Having said that, look at the indicator line near the bottom of the chart. It's heading lower and it rounded over about a week ago. That's bearish.

The indicator hasn't dropped below 35 to trigger a signal change, so the indicator is in the neutral zone, and yet it's hinting of changing to bearish. A big move up would change that sentiment, though.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both indicators show improvement this week over last week at this time. That's the good news.

The bad news is...well, there isn't any bad news except that both lines have rounded over and are heading down. These two lines mirror what the prior chart's CPI line is doing, although not as pronounced or as long (meaning the CPI line has been trending lower for a week now). The red and blue lines have turned down in the last two or three days.

Both charts are hinting of the indices turning lower. It might not happen, but they are whispering their worry.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/18/20. Slider Tutorial Tuesday!

$ $ $

I show a another slider tutorial featuring the 1-2-3 trend change. It describes how to detect a trend change.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/17/19. Feeding ThePatternSite.

I released a new version of Patternz. This has a few bug fixes, but it introduces a Forecast Form to help you find unusual patterns and discover how they may perform.

Today (Monday) is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images either along the left side or at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

   So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

Friday 2/14/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 23 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 3.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 13 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (14) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/06/2020 and 02/13/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 16 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $77.94

1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.45 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 9.47%

Volume: 325,900 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 8 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $54.53

1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $50.08 or 8.2% below the close.

Change YTD: 18.91%

Volume: 50,786,400 shares. 3 month avg: 56,512,782 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 462 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $47.50

1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.29 or 6.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.54%

Volume: 198,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 360 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $298.87

1 Month avg volatility: $7.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $279.63 or 6.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.05%

Volume: 1,931,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,801,302 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 42 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $67.37

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.66 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.37%

Volume: 21,642,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 31 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $11.81

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.32 or 12.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -31.73%

Volume: 12,641,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/12/2020 to 02/12/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 34 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $27.70

1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.93 or 10.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 9.01%

Volume: 1,807,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 92 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $3.95

1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.45 or 12.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 4.50%

Volume: 15,467,800 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 01/22/2020 to 02/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 83 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $4.01

1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.61 or 10.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.25%

Volume: 1,770,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,783,222 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 01/03/2020 to 02/11/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 132 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $148.10

1 Month avg volatility: $1.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $152.13 or 2.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 5.12%

Volume: 281,300 shares. 3 month avg: 230,622 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 01/16/2020 to 02/13/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 66 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $13.64

1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $14.62 or 7.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 8.08%

Volume: 2,741,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,241,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/17/2020 to 02/13/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 328 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $46.96

1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.64 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -5.65%

Volume: 1,534,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/12/2020

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 17 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $27.25

1 Month avg volatility: $0.88. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.98 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 4.93%

Volume: 472,200 shares. 3 month avg: 748,688 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 109 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $34.24

1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.02 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.12%

Volume: 92,000 shares. 3 month avg: 288,512 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 438 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $189.43

1 Month avg volatility: $2.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $181.72 or 4.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 7.42%

Volume: 1,499,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,076,035 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 355 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $180.12

1 Month avg volatility: $2.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.20 or 3.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.76%

Volume: 1,959,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Drug

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 426 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $285.05

1 Month avg volatility: $6.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $269.19 or 5.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 9.16%

Volume: 283,900 shares. 3 month avg: 512,494 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 564 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $73.03

1 Month avg volatility: $2.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $78.12 or 7.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.12%

Volume: 1,449,700 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/12/2020 to 02/12/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 202 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $600.35

1 Month avg volatility: $9.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $573.28 or 4.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.56%

Volume: 750,000 shares. 3 month avg: 734,668 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 572 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $20.63

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.22 or 16.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.64%

Volume: 545,000 shares. 3 month avg: 173,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Eve reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 40%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 55% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 67% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 108 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $48.45

1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.01 or 9.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -7.01%

Volume: 20,800 shares. 3 month avg: 11,408 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 93 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $124.77

1 Month avg volatility: $2.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $129.33 or 3.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 4.18%

Volume: 2,516,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,401,252 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/16/2019 to 02/12/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 537 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $11.11

1 Month avg volatility: $0.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.93 or 7.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -18.19%

Volume: 30,284,000 shares. 3 month avg: 12,845,475 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/29/2020 to 02/12/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 525 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $3.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.69 or 12.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -12.96%

Volume: 1,354,600 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/13/2020 to 02/13/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 51 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $59.33

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.55 or 6.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 10.32%

Volume: 23,510,000 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 570 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $19.54

1 Month avg volatility: $1.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.07 or 12.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -28.24%

Volume: 921,500 shares. 3 month avg: 906,888 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/07/2020 to 02/07/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 7 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $270.78

1 Month avg volatility: $5.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $257.53 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 15.08%

Volume: 11,561,100 shares. 3 month avg: 15,363,712 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 445 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $17.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.65 or 10.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.74%

Volume: 2,964,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 440 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $79.53

1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $75.89 or 4.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.84%

Volume: 2,694,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,548,395 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/30/2020 to 02/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 24 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $85.79

1 Month avg volatility: $3.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.96 or 8.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.72%

Volume: 245,400 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 162 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $74.29

1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $68.99 or 7.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -6.38%

Volume: 33,700 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 534 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $20.39

1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.34 or 10.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.82%

Volume: 527,900 shares. 3 month avg: 835,520 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/31/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 47 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $72.58

1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $67.98 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 6.44%

Volume: 2,071,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,042 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 358 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $66.82

1 Month avg volatility: $1.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $62.61 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -4.75%

Volume: 488,500 shares. 3 month avg: 812,517 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 548 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $90.41

1 Month avg volatility: $2.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.41 or 6.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -7.53%

Volume: 3,203,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,055,762 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 02/03/2020 to 02/10/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 112 out of 590

2/13/20 close: $108.42

1 Month avg volatility: $1.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $104.79 or 3.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 8.31%

Volume: 145,500 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Thursday 2/13/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index moved horizontally for most of the day but it peaked above the top of the line near the close. You can't see it on this chart, but it's there.

The pattern formed by the red lines is called a rectangle top. That's two parallel (or nearly so) trendlines with plenty of crossing from side to side. This one has an upward breakout.

If we were on the daily scale, I'd say to watch for a throwback to the top of the pattern (the breakout price), but intraday that doesn't work well because of the opening gap.

Still, it's a bullish sign (an upward breakout, that is).

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/12/20. Indicators Still Bullish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The indicator changed to bullish a week ago and the market has responded by rising. I show that on the chart by the vertical green line.

Look at the indicator line, the thin blue one near chart bottom. It's bullish, too. I'd like to warn that hitting the ceiling means there's nowhere to go but down. However, if you look at what happened in the past, the indicator has hit the ceiling and bumped its head for weeks against it. Not always, of course. There have been discrete peaks where price hit the roof and turned lower immediately. The peak after January is an example.

I get the sense, but have no proof, that the index will continue to rise steadily and the indicator will continue to hit the ceiling. Trump and worries about COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) could change that, though.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show modest improvement from a week ago.

There is divergence between the indicator lines and the index. How so? The indicators peaked about a month ago and remain below that peak. However, the index is making new highs.

One could say the index is rising and the indicator is struggling, generally trending lower. I can't see a similar situation on the chart, so this is new. It's also bearish. The broader market is doing worse than the index. Sooner or later, that weakness will be reflected in the index.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/11/20. Slider Tutorial: Trendlines!

$ $ $

I show a slider tutorial on trendlines chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/10/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the Dow utilities on the daily scale.

I like how the index has climbed in a nice straight-line run from the resistance line at B to peak at C.

The question I ask now, is what comes next?

That question is harder to answer.

First, I drew a resistance line, B, connecting recent peaks. That line will become a support line should the index drop back to that level.

Then I looked at the move up to B, that is, the move from A to B. That corresponds to the move from B to C.

That rise-retrace-rise pattern is what's called a measured move up (MMU) chart pattern. One of the key features of the MMU is how price behaves after it's done. Price returns to the corrective phase (that's B in this picture) 57% of the time. The other 43% see price drop some but not decline far enough to reach B before soaring.

So that's the template I'm following, a retrace down to the corrective phase.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 2/7/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 20 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 3.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 6 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (7) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 01/30/2020 and 02/06/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 439 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $52.74

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $51.12 or 3.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.30%

Volume: 3,480,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,541,537 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 12/27/2019 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is upward 51% of the time.

Average rise: 28%.

Break-even failure rate: 19%.

Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 534 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $14.68

1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.67 or 6.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.14%

Volume: 2,184,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,309,748 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 47 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $63.19

1 Month avg volatility: $1.53. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.23 or 6.4% above the close.

Change YTD: 3.52%

Volume: 4,862,000 shares. 3 month avg: 11,583,771 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/19/2019 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Packaging and Container

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 481 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $117.53

1 Month avg volatility: $1.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $122.23 or 4.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.65%

Volume: 247,800 shares. 3 month avg: 241,254 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, ascending reversal pattern from 11/22/2019 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is downward 73% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 58% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 53 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $4.19

1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $4.52 or 7.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 10.85%

Volume: 3,276,800 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 556 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $42.25

1 Month avg volatility: $1.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.00 or 5.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.50%

Volume: 2,801,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,754,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/28/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 228 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $71.42

1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $73.69 or 3.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 15.16%

Volume: 7,781,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/17/2020 to 02/03/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 341 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $37.77

1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.92 or 7.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -5.65%

Volume: 90,500 shares. 3 month avg: 120,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 01/02/2020 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is upward 79% of the time.

Average rise: 33%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 258 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $280.45

1 Month avg volatility: $3.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $291.31 or 3.9% above the close.

Change YTD: 1.30%

Volume: 374,300 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 12/30/2019 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 586 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $5.03

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.63 or 11.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -26.25%

Volume: 748,500 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/04/2020 to 02/04/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 409 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $18.49

1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.38 or 6.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 4.58%

Volume: 3,829,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,662,882 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 01/31/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 1 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $24.51

1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.59 or 20.7% above the close.

Change YTD: 17.44%

Volume: 184,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 200 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $107.31

1 Month avg volatility: $2.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $100.39 or 6.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -3.23%

Volume: 138,300 shares. 3 month avg: 141,669 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 01/23/2020 to 01/31/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Food Processing

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 413 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $63.46

1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.25 or 7.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -8.24%

Volume: 7,660,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,593,774 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 01/07/2020 to 02/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 146 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $43.24

1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $47.22 or 9.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 9.89%

Volume: 515,300 shares. 3 month avg: 256,088 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 205 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $22.00

1 Month avg volatility: $0.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.89 or 5.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.37%

Volume: 157,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 110 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $49.53

1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.91 or 3.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 3.21%

Volume: 2,092,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,351,771 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 01/31/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 577 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $12.85

1 Month avg volatility: $0.52. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.65 or 21.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -43.84%

Volume: 1,018,400 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/06/2020 to 02/06/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 506 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $16.84

1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.17 or 9.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 54.92%

Volume: 6,913,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 12/03/2019 to 02/05/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/25/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/24/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 141 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $39.59

1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.52 or 5.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -6.80%

Volume: 570,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/28/2020 to 01/31/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 588 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $5.92

1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.86 or 17.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -3.74%

Volume: 2,847,000 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 02/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/29/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/28/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 248 out of 590

2/6/20 close: $5.32

1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.49 or 15.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -18.90%

Volume: 2,978,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 01/21/2020 to 01/27/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Thursday 2/6/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Bearish Signs

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two red parallel lines bordering price action today.

Two things: First, the channel slopes upward. That's bullish. It's clearly better than having a channel slope downward.

Second, the index is at the bottom of the channel. That's bearish. Why? Because it's closer to breaking out of the channel downward. However, the index could bounce off the bottom of the channel and zip higher. That's why some traders put their faith and their money into channels.

My feeling is that intraday price movement contains a lot of noise and the index often gaps at the open. So there really isn't a meaningful transition from day to day on this scale, meaning the implications of what you see one day could be moot from the opening bell.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 2/5/20. Indicators Bullish!

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical green bar on the right of the chart is a welcome sign. It's bullish.

On a day where the Dow surged 400 points, it comes as no surprise that the CPI would flip from bearish to bullish. The next question is, can the indicator hold its bullish stance?

That's harder to answer. Clearly the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart shows promise, with it spiking upward. As I've mentioned before, the signal can change for up to 7 days but after 3 days, it's usually a solid and believable signal.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines were headed lower until today's move in the markets. That pulled upward the lines. The big surprise is that the two lines had tumbled low enough that even today's rally has kept them below what they were a week ago.

I would have expected a more robust response from the lines, but their weakness tells me the general market has been suffering during the week.

Both charts have bullish elements to them. This chart shows underlying weakness. Overall, I favor the bulls, though. I think fears of the virus are overblown and that the markets will simmer down and come to expect the implications on China woes as understandable.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 2/4/20. Slider Quiz!

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I show a another slider quiz featuring the three rising valleys chart pattern.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/3/20. 2020 Market Forecast Update!

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for January. I'm impressed with how accurate it has been...so far.

-- Thomas Bulkowski