As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
The following page describes the basic pattern of the Elliott wave principle, how price moves not in a straight line but in a series of rises and retracements.
Except for unusual circumstances, price moves in waves and not in a straight-line run. These waves are like the tide coming in.
Price advances and recedes, advances a bit more and recedes, slowly creeping up the shore. The outgoing tide shows the wave
advance not as far as previous waves, and withdrawing further.
The figure on the right is a picture of the wave moving up the shoreline as high tide approaches. The water rises in a series of advancing waves followed by receding ones. The motive phase takes the shape of a five wave structure (1 through 5) followed by the corrective phase which has three waves (ABC).
The motive phase is composed of three advancing waves, 1, 3, and 5 and counter trend waves 2 and 4. Following the motive wave comes the corrective phase. It shows two receding waves, A and C, with a counter trend wave between, B. The series, 1 through 5 and A through C can be repeated to show how the tide comes in, or price advances up the chart.
If you were to zoom in on waves 1 and 2, you would see the same 1 through 5 and ABC combination. You can say the same about waves 3 and 4, 5 and A, B and C (with the structure reversed). In this manner, the cycle is fractal, meaning the closer you zoom in, the more motive and corrective phase combinations you see. If you were to zoom out, say look at the structure from across the room or from the other side of your yard, the 1 through 5 and ABC combination would take the shape of waves 1 and 2.
Motive waves do not always point up and corrective waves do not always point down. If you were to use a microscope to look at waves A-B from the above chart (not the chart to the right), you would see a five wave structure heading lower (waves 1 through 5) followed by a three wave, ABC, correction. I show this in the chart to the right.
Frost and Prechter describe this movement best when they write, "...the essential underlying tendency of the Wave principle is that action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend." That is an important statement. It is not entirely accurate, but I like to think of it this way: five waves align with the primary trend and the corrective phase is the counter trend move. The primary trend can be up (bullish) or down (bearish).
Trends that align with the primary trend (wave of higher degree) form in 5 waves. Counter trends develop in 3 waves. So if you expect price to continue rising, look for 5 waves.
The complete eight wave cycle has rules that govern its shape. They are listed here.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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