As of 04/22/2024
Indus: 38,240 +253.58 +0.7%
Trans: 15,224 +140.68 +0.9%
Utils: 883 +7.72 +0.9%
Nasdaq: 15,451 +169.30 +1.1%
S&P 500: 5,011 +43.37 +0.9%
|
YTD
+1.5%
-4.2%
+0.2%
+2.9%
+5.0%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/22/2024
Indus: 38,240 +253.58 +0.7%
Trans: 15,224 +140.68 +0.9%
Utils: 883 +7.72 +0.9%
Nasdaq: 15,451 +169.30 +1.1%
S&P 500: 5,011 +43.37 +0.9%
|
YTD
+1.5%
-4.2%
+0.2%
+2.9%
+5.0%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 1/30/2021.
Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Friday January 29. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
The CPI indicator turned bearish several days ago and remains bearish as the red vertical line on the far right of the chart shows.
In the coming charts, you'll see that the prediction says the markets will be weak going into mid March, so the CPI chart reflects that bearishness.
The prediction in red (B) shows the market getting weaker in February, about a month later than what's happened so far (C). The index has almost reached the predicted bottom (in March, blue line A)
Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.
The prediction (A) lines up much better with reality (B). Both lines peak near the same time. It suggests weakness going into mid March. So if you want to buy into this market, wait. It'll be cheaper in March if reality matches the prediction.
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
This chart looks similar to the Dow chart. The prediction of the index peaking (A) is later than reality (B). It suggests weakness extending into March.
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