As of 12/27/2024   Indus: 42,992 -333.59 -0.8%     Trans: 16,031 -73.46 -0.5%     Utils: 987 -4.51 -0.5%     Nasdaq: 19,722 -298.33 -1.5%     S&P 500: 5,971 -66.75 -1.1%	YTD  +14.1%    +0.8%    +12.0%    +31.4%    +25.2%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/27/24

As of 12/27/2024   Indus: 42,992 -333.59 -0.8%     Trans: 16,031 -73.46 -0.5%     Utils: 987 -4.51 -0.5%     Nasdaq: 19,722 -298.33 -1.5%     S&P 500: 5,971 -66.75 -1.1%	YTD  +14.1%    +0.8%    +12.0%    +31.4%    +25.2%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/27/24

Wednesday 3/31/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Several days ago, the indicator signaled a bullish move by turning green. The vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows that.

Look at the indicator line, though. It's the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart. It's heading lower. That direction can change for up to a week, so the downtrend can be misleading.

Even so, the downward move is an indication of a weakening general market.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both the red and blue lines are bullish this week compared to last week. If you compared the red line with the black one, you can see that the shapes are similar. That means the red/blue lines don't add any value.

However, you do see divergence occasionally where the indicator lines will go one way (like down) and the index will go the other way (up). You can see that in the red line where the current line is far below the red's peak set in mid March. The index is near the top of the scale, though. So there's something going on. Maybe stealth weakness...

Combined, the two charts are bullish if taken at face value. The CPI chart might be warning of weakness and this chart is also showing caution.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 83 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: APOG, AAPL, ARCB, AWI, ADP, BSET, CBT, COG, CALM, CAL, CE, CENX, CRL, CHD, CGNX, CAG, CONN, CSOD, DVN, EXP, EMR, EOG, EL, RE, FLEX, GE, GNW, GOOGL, GPRO, GFF, HTLD, HL, HD, HURC, INFN, JBLU, KBH, K, KMB, KLIC, RAMP, MCHX, MLM, MGEE, NEU, PATK, PPG, KWR, DGX, SAIA, SEE, SMTC, SR, SUM, TPX, UPS, UNM, VFC, VMC, WSO, WMB, WSM, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IYH, SLV, EWK, EWP, TUR, IBB, DBA, PJP, XLY, GLD, XRT, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/30/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Vertex Pharmaceutical

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Vertex Pharmaceutical: VRTX (actual trade)

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 105 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AXDX, AES, AA, ADS, AYX, AEL, AMWD, ANIK, APOG, ARCB, ACGL, ADSK, BSET, BZH, BBY, BAH, BRC, BLDR, BG, COG, CACI, CNP, CF, CHKP, CHD, CNO, CCRN, CW, DDS, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EFX, EQT, RE, FB, FAST, FLIR, FLS, GES, HAYN, HTLD, HOV, HURC, ILMN, INFN, NSP, TILE, K, KFRC, KMB, LHX, LAWS, LEG, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MA, MDC, MGEE, MU, MS, MLI, NTGR, OTEX, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PNW, PPG, PEG, SAIA, SAIC, SMG, SIGI, SLGN, SCS, TOL, TRV, UPS, VLO, VMI, VRSN, V, WERN, WLK, WMB, IHF, EWH, EZA, XRT, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/29/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily chart.

The red lines outline a chart pattern I discussed back in February. It's called an ascending broadening wedge.

In that pattern, both trendlines slope upward but they diverge, like that shown on the chart.

What's useful in the pattern is a partial rise or decline. That's when price leaves one of the trendlines, heading toward the other one, but the stock doesn't make it. Rather, the trend reverses and makes an immediate breakout.

This chart shows a partial rise which appears to have failed. I show the partial rise at A. Notice that price dropped after A (as it should in a partial rise), but then rebounded. That rebound probably disqualifies the partial rise. We'll have to wait and see if that's really the case, because if the stock were to drop and breakout downward, then we could say that the partial rise was accurate.

However, it looks as if price is going to continue moving higher, so that's my guess for the next week.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 206 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, ANF, AEIS, AES, APD, ALK, ALB, AA, ADS, AEO, AEL, AMWD, AMGN, AMN, ANIK, APOG, ARCB, AWI, ARW, BMI, BZH, BERY, BIG, BKNG, BOOT, BRC, BLDR, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CX, CENX, CF, CRL, CNA, CNO, CL, CONN, COTY, CROX, CCRN, CW, DECK, DFS, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EOG, EFX, EQT, FLIR, FLS, FTNT, FWRD, GME, GPS, GE, GPN, GFF, GES, HBI, HAYN, HSII, HNI, HON, HOV, HURC, IEX, ITW, NSP, IBP, TILE, IPI, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, KMT, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LB, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MA, MDC, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NCR, NJR, NEU, NI, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PTEN, PPG, PFG, PRU, RL, RJF, RHI, ROK, ROG, ROST, ^GSPC, SAIA, SIGI, LUV, SXI, SCS, SUM, TGT, TFX, TEVA, TXT, TKR, TJX, TOL, TRV, TZOO, TG, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VFC, VLO, VMI, V, WERN, WLK, ITA, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXL, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWQ, EIS, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, EWU, PPA, PXJ, PJP, PHO, IEV, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLF, XHB, XRT, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/26/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 176 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, AXDX, ACIW, ADBE, AES, AMZN, AEE, AEO, AEL, AMWD, APA, APOG, ARCB, ADSK, BLL, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CAL, CLS, CENX, CF, CNO, CSOD, COST, CCRN, CCK, CW, DHR, DFS, ^DJI, EXP, EIX, FDX, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, GME, GPN, GOOGL, GES, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HP, DHI, HUBG, HURC, INOV, NSP, IBP, TILE, INTU, NVTA, KBH, KMT, KFRC, KLIC, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LOW, LXU, MTSI, M, MANH, MRO, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MDC, MRK, MGEE, MU, MSFT, NTAP, NWL, NXGN, NKE, OXY, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PPG, PFG, PRU, PHM, RMBS, RLI, RCKY, ROG, ROST, CRM, SLB, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCCO, STMP, SCS, SUM, SRDX, TPR, TGT, TECH, TDOC, TFX, TER, TOL, TRV, SLCA, UPS, VLO, VEEV, VRSN, V, WLK, WEX, WMB, IYE, ITB, DDM, QTEC, BOTZ, IGV, EWA, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWH, EIS, EPP, EWP, TUR, QLD, PJP, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, XLY, GLD, XHB, XRT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 28 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 4.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 21 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bearish (down) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 3/25/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At AB, the composite formed a double top chart pattern. It confirmed as valid when price closed below C, the lowest valley between peaks AB.

As the chart shows, price dropped but pulled back to the breakout price and continued rising to D. Then the composite made a frightening drop to end the day 2% below the prior close.

The strength of this drop suggests the move lower will continue tomorrow (Thursday), at least for a time. That assessment agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ADBE, AES, ALL, AMZN, AEO, AEL, AXP, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ADSK, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BKH, BOOT, BAH, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CACI, CLS, CNC, CF, CHKP, CNA, CNO, CSOD, COTY, CR, CTS, CW, DFS, DOV, EXP, EOG, EL, EXC, FFIV, FAST, FIVN, FLS, FTNT, FCX, GME, GPN, GOOGL, GES, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HELE, HP, HOLX, HURC, INOV, NSP, INTC, TILE, IPG, KFRC, LH, LAWS, LEG, LEN, MTSI, M, MANH, MAN, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MDC, MGEE, MU, MSFT, NBR, ^IXIC, NWL, NEU, NKE, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PYPL, PETS, PGR, PRU, DGX, RLI, ROG, CRM, SAIC, SIGI, SCCO, STMP, SCS, TECH, TFX, TPX, TDC, TOL, TSCO, TRV, VLO, VRSN, VRTX, V, VMC, WRB, WMT, WLK, IEZ, FDN, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWO, EWK, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, TUR, QLD, PEJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXN, MXI, XLY, XRT, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 3/24/21. Indicators Turning Bearish

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI has turned bearish as the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart shows. The indicator says it turned bearish 3 days ago (two days from Wednesday), but yesterday's post shows it was still bullish.

In other words, the signal can change for up to a week.

Notice that the CPI line at the bottom of the chart is at or close to 0. It's going to be hard to change this into a bullish signal over the next 7 days.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Last week I highlighted how steep the red line shot higher. This week, it's the reverse with the red line taking a nice tumble.

If you look at the percentages, they echo that drop, from 9% bearish to 16%. Ouch!

So this chart is bearish and so is the CPI chart. It suggests a continued deterioration of the markets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 201 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACIW, AES, AA, ALL, AEL, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, ATO, ADSK, AXS, BCPC, BAX, BZH, BIO, BIIB, BMRN, BOOT, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CE, CLS, CENX, CF, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CINF, CNO, CSOD, COTY, CTS, CW, XRAY, DFS, DRQ, EXP, RE, FDX, FIS, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FCX, FRD, GME, GPN, GES, HSC, HE, HAYN, HTLD, HP, HOLX, JBHT, HURC, NSP, IBP, INTC, TILE, IPG, JBLU, KALU, KBH, K, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LB, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LXU, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MA, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MLHR, MCO, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NWL, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NKE, OLN, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PRFT, PPG, PRU, RJF, RLI, RHI, RCKY, ROG, SLB, SIGI, SLGN, SO, SCCO, SXI, SCS, SUM, TPR, TFX, TDC, TOL, RIG, TRV, TZOO, VFC, VLO, VRTX, V, WRB, WLK, WEX, XLNX, IYE, IDU, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, SOXX, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWH, EPP, EZA, EWY, EWU, PBE, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, MXI, XLE, XRT, XAR, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/23/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Volt Information Sciences: VOL (actual trade).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 158 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, AA, AMED, AIG, AMWD, APH, ANIK, APA, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, BCPC, BOOT, BLDR, CACI, CALM, CAL, CE, CF, CRL, CHS, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CGNX, CLGX, CSOD, COST, CR, CREE, CTS, DECK, XRAY, ^DJU, ^DJT, BOOM, WIRE, EPAM, FFIV, FICO, FDX, FLEX, FORM, GME, GES, HLIT, HQY, HTLD, HL, HP, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, ILMN, INFN, IPG, NVTA, KALU, KMB, KSS, LB, LAMR, LXU, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MRTN, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MLHR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NXGN, NI, NVDA, OLN, OXM, PYPL, PRFT, PFE, PICO, PPG, PINC, PG, RGS, RHI, ROG, RES, SLB, SMG, SEE, SRE, SKX, STMP, SUM, SNPS, TPR, TECH, TXN, TRV, TZOO, SLCA, UGI, WAT, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, IYF, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWP, EWL, TUR, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, MXI, XLE, XLF, XLI, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/22/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Highlighted isn't a chart pattern. Rather, it's just squiggles on the price chart. Do you know why?

Because the squiggles haven't confirmed as a valid chart pattern yet. If price rises to close above the red line at A, then it would qualify as a head-and-shoulders bottom.

LS is the left shoulder, RS is the right one. Between them is a head which sticks out lower than the two shoulders. Breakouts are always upward from a head-and-shoulders bottom.

This one is a nice looking one, too, because the shoulders bottom near the same price and the neckline (the red line) is horizontal.

Of course, the right shoulder hasn't seen price turn upward yet. If it continues lower, then forget about a head-and-shoulders. It'll remain squiggles on the price chart.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 136 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ABT, ACIW, ADBE, AMD, ALRM, AMED, AEO, AXP, AFG, AMGN, ANIK, APA, AMAT, ATR, ARW, ADSK, BSET, BBBY, BAH, EPAY, CIEN, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CGNX, CL, CONN, COST, CR, CREE, CSGS, CTS, CMI, BOOM, WIRE, RE, FICO, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FWRD, FCX, GPRO, HBI, HSC, HQY, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, ILMN, INFN, NVTA, JNJ, KSS, LAMR, LDOS, MTSI, MRO, MCHX, MA, MDCA, MGEE, MYGN, ^IXIC, NTGR, NEU, NOC, NVDA, OGE, PANW, PAYX, PYPL, PPG, PINC, PG, RCKY, ROG, RES, SAIA, SLB, SMG, SRE, SCCO, SWN, STMP, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TFX, TPX, TXN, TJX, TRV, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, WSO, WDAY, XLNX, IYE, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWW, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, QQQ, ROBO, IXC, IXN, XLE, XLI, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/19/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 139 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ABT, ANF, ADBE, AMD, AES, APD, ALRM, AMED, AEO, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ADSK, AVNT, BZH, BBBY, BKH, BG, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CNC, CENX, CIEN, CTXS, CLNE, CLX, CNA, CNO, CGNX, COST, CREE, CMI, ^DJT, BOOM, EXC, FICO, FLEX, FLIR, FLS, FORM, FWRD, GIS, HIG, HQY, HL, HELE, HSY, HOLX, HD, IEX, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPI, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, KALU, K, KFRC, KSS, LNC, LOW, MTSI, MRO, MA, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, ^IXIC, CNR, NCR, NTGR, NWL, NEE, NVDA, OLN, PYPL, PPG, PPL, RGS, RLI, ROG, RES, SAIA, SMG, SMTC, NOW, SO, STMP, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TXN, TJX, TRV, TZOO, TREX, SLCA, V, WMT, WERN, WU, WSM, WDAY, XLNX, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWZ, EWJ, TUR, QLD, IBB, PBE, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XRT, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 11 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 1.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 16 bullish chart patterns this week and 5 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 3/18/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I look at a chart, my eye gets drawn to the straight lines. Rather, the minor highs or lows when connected, form a trendline. I drew the red line first because the touches are so close and it's easy for my eye to connect the minor lows.

Then I took a wider view and drew the green line followed by the blue one.

Notice that all three lines slope upward and they are almost parallel. Do you know what that means?

I don't!

Actually, it reminds me of Andrew's pitchfork, where you pick three major turns and it constructs what looks like a three-tine pitchfork. The thinking with the tool is that price will stall or reverse at one of the tines.

Price has reached the red line (even though I haven't extended it that far) and has turned lower. It could bounce off the lower trendline or it might resume the upward move. The eventual direction is hard to tell.

My guess is it'll bounce off the green line and maybe float between the red and green lines tomorrow (Thursday). The futures market, before the stock market opens, may point the way.

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Here's a symbol list of 202 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, APD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AA, ALKS, ADS, AMED, AEE, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ACGL, ARW, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, AVA, AXS, BECN, BZH, BKH, BKNG, BOOT, BBW, CBT, COG, CLS, CNC, CHD, CIEN, CTXS, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CMCO, CAG, COST, CREE, DDS, ^DJI, D, BOOM, WIRE, EVH, EXC, FICO, FFG, FLEX, FORM, GE, GGG, EVRG, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HL, HSIC, HOLX, DHI, HOV, HUBG, IDA, ILMN, INFN, INOV, IPI, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, KBH, LB, LEN, MHO, MTSI, MRO, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, ^IXIC, NCR, NTGR, NEU, NEE, NXGN, NOC, NVDA, PYPL, PICO, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PG, PRU, PHM, RL, ROG, RES, ^GSPC, SMG, SEIC, SRE, SO, LUV, SR, STMP, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TEVA, TXN, TJX, TOL, TZOO, SLCA, UNM, V, VC, WLK, WDAY, XLNX, IYM, IAI, ITB, IHE, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWA, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EWQ, EWJ, EZA, EWP, TUR, EWU, QLD, IBB, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IEV, IXN, ILF, SSO, XLY, GLD, XHB, XLB, XRT, SPY, XAR, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 3/17/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI is still green, indicating the market remains bullish. However, look at the thin blue line at the bottom of the chart. That's the CPI line. It's heading lower.

The direction of that line can change quickly enough, as the rest of the chart shows. Keep in mind that the indicator can change for up to a week, but the downward trend isn't promising. It's showing a bearish divergence (the index is rising but the CPI is falling).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines moved higher this week compared to last week, but look at the red line. From the low at A, it has soared to B in a steep move upward. I'm tempted to write that I've never seen it so steep, but a quick look to the left shows that it has happened before. Look at the run up to the June peak, as an example. That June peak is a cautionary tale. The red line might drop just as quickly as it went up. And that means a sharp drop in the index.

The CPI line in the prior chart is heading lower, so that's bearish. The red line on this chart shows a sharp move up, but what goes up must come down (normally, that is. It could be on the way to the moon or Scotty could beam it up). Together, I think the news isn't good. I expect the index to retrace soon, so lookout below.

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Here's a symbol list of 164 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADBE, AMD, AJRD, ALRM, ALB, AMED, ANIK, ANTM, APA, AMAT, ASH, ADSK, BZH, BERY, CF, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, COST, CR, CREE, CRH, CROX, CCRN, CMI, BOOM, EL, XOM, FICO, FDX, FLEX, FLIR, FORM, FCX, GME, GE, GIS, GPRO, HQY, HL, HOLX, HON, ILMN, INFN, IBP, INTC, INTU, ISRG, IVC, NVTA, LZB, LRCX, LLY, LNC, RAMP, LXU, MTSI, MRO, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, MLHR, NTGR, NEE, NI, NVDA, OXY, OXM, PKG, PANW, PKE, PYPL, PHM, RL, RMBS, ROK, ROG, RES, SAIA, SMG, LUV, SWX, SR, STMP, SSYS, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TXN, TMO, TJX, RIG, TZOO, SLCA, VFC, VMC, WLK, WEX, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYM, IYK, IYE, IEZ, IDU, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SOXX, SLV, EWK, EWZ, EWC, EWJ, EZA, EWL, TUR, QLD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IXC, IXN, ILF, XLE, XAR, XLU, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/16/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Teradyne: TER (actual trade) stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 128 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, MMM, ACN, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, AES, AYX, AEP, ANIK, ANTM, ARW, ATO, AXS, BERY, BKH, CPB, CNP, CHS, CIEN, CSCO, CTXS, CNO, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, COTY, CW, DVN, ^DJT, EIX, EOG, EQT, EVH, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FDX, FLIR, FTNT, FRD, GME, GPS, GILD, GPN, GPRO, EVRG, HE, HL, HD, DHI, IDA, ILMN, INOV, NSP, IPG, JAZZ, JBLU, KBH, KLIC, LEN, LLY, L, LOW, LXU, MHO, M, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MRK, MGEE, MLHR, MYGN, NWL, NI, JWN, NWPX, OGE, PKG, PETS, PNW, PPL, PEG, PHM, RGS, REV, SAIA, SMG, TECH, TOL, RIG, TZOO, UPS, WRB, WERN, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, ITB, IHI, IAT, IYZ, EWC, EWM, PBE, PEJ, IXC, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/15/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

On the far left is a pattern highlighted by yellow (or brown) lines, C. The top line slopes upward and the bottom one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge. You can't tell from this picture if it's a broadening top or bottom because I can't see the inbound price trend.

The middle top peak, to the lower right of the letter C, is farther from the trendline than I like to see, but few patterns are perfect.

Moving on to the right, we see the index climbing and bounded on the top by a red trendline. Price can't pierce that line except in the last two days, at A.

It might be hard to see, but the industrials have pierced the line. That's not a deal breaker on a downward move (meaning it's not a guarantee that price will continue rising). However, it's a sign of strength.

The 2B pattern is one where price rises above a prior peak but then drops. Let's set that aside, but keep it in mind.

Let's look at B, the green line. Notice that the current price (A) has moved well above the prior peak (B, at the green line). Such a big move suggests it's not a 2B pattern after all (rather, it's unlikely).

Price might retrace for a week or so, but the trend I think is upward over the next 2 weeks. Having written that, it also looks like it's overdue for a retrace, so expect a dip before a resumption of the upward move.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 122 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ANF, ACIW, AYI, AJRD, AES, AKAM, ALKS, AYX, AEP, AEL, AXP, AMWD, ANIK, ANTM, ATR, ADM, ARW, ATO, AXS, BSET, BBBY, BIO, BKH, BKNG, BRC, COG, CNP, CF, CHS, CLNE, CLX, CMTL, CONN, COP, CLR, COST, COTY, CW, ^DJT, ^DJI, EOG, EQT, EL, EZPW, FIS, FEYE, FLIR, FTNT, GPS, GIS, GILD, GPN, GFF, THG, HTLD, DHI, INOV, KBH, KMT, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LDOS, LEN, LOW, LXU, MHO, MAN, MTRN, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MYGN, NTGR, JWN, NWPX, NUS, OGE, ORI, PAYX, PETS, PNW, PPG, PEG, PHM, ROG, SMG, SHW, LUV, SWX, SWN, TPX, TOL, TRV, VMI, VRSN, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, ITB, DDM, IAT, IYZ, IGE, EWO, EWC, EWU, IEV, MXI, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/12/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

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Here's a symbol list of 132 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ACIW, AYI, ALK, AA, ALKS, AEP, AEL, ANIK, ANTM, ARW, ATO, BERY, BKH, BA, BKNG, BOOT, CBT, COG, CACI, CNP, CENX, CF, CHS, CIEN, CMCO, CMTL, CONN, ^DJT, ^DJI, EXP, EFX, EXPD, FDX, FLEX, FLIR, FTNT, GE, GILD, GPN, GFF, DHI, INFN, INOV, IVC, NVTA, KBH, KLIC, LRCX, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LEN, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MGEE, MOS, NKE, NI, NWPX, OXY, OGE, PANW, PETS, PNW, PPG, PEG, PHM, REV, ROST, SEE, SMTC, NOW, SWX, SXI, SSYS, TMO, TOL, TREX, UPS, WU, WLK, XEL, ZBRA, ITA, IYM, ITB, DDM, FXI, IYZ, IGE, EWO, EWC, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWD, THD, PPA, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, SSO, MXI, XLB, SPY, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 18 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 577 stocks searched, or 3.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 22 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Thursday 3/11/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The pattern at ABC is an ugly double bottom. Bottoms A and B aren't 5% apart, but intraday, I allow exceptions. Anyway, the pattern confirms when price closes above the peak between the two bottoms. I show that as the green line, C.

Recently, price has dropped following a down-sloping channel. I show that with the two down-sloping red lines. My guess, based on the spike above the channel before it began, is a downward move. An upward spike can translate into a downward move of a similar extent. I don't know if that's true or not, but it's based on the measure rule for trendlines (a move above the line means a similar drop).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 153 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACIW, ADBE, ALB, AA, ALKS, AEP, AEL, AMN, ANIK, ANTM, ARCB, ARW, AIZ, ATO, AVA, AXS, BSET, BMRN, BKH, BA, BOOT, BBW, CALM, CPB, CNP, CRL, CHS, CLNE, CMTL, CONN, COP, GLW, DHR, DFS, DOV, DTE, EXP, EFX, RE, EVH, FFIV, FDS, FTNT, GME, GPS, GILD, GPRO, GFF, GES, THG, HSY, DHI, HOV, JBHT, IDA, IEX, ITW, INOV, INTU, KBH, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LLY, L, LXU, MHO, MTRX, MDCA, MGEE, MU, MSFT, MOS, NFG, NTAP, JWN, NWPX, OGE, PANW, PKE, PETS, PNW, POR, PPG, PRU, PEG, PHM, RLI, RCKY, ROST, SLB, SIGI, NOW, SO, SWN, SR, TDOC, TFX, TER, TJX, TOL, RIG, TRV, TG, VRSN, WU, WWW, WDAY, XEL, ZBRA, IYM, ITB, FXI, ICF, IGV, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWY, EWL, THD, TUR, PBE, MXI, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 3/10/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI (chart pattern indicator) has issued a bullish buy signal. According to the chart, it happened 3 days ago, but because the indicator can change its mind for up to a week, it may have happened more recently.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement this week with the red indicator line suggesting bullish divergence with the index. That's not quite true because the index is rising now and could form a peak, changing divergence into convergence.

Both charts are bullish this week. Enough said.

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On the home front, I finished patching the insulation holes I found on my house and even painted the wood and some of the siding. My neighbor and I bought two sheets of drywall, too, so I can hang that in the coming days. I also order parts to fix my broken garage door opener. Another week or two and I might be back to normal.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 190 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ACN, ADBE, AEIS, AMD, AJRD, ATSG, ALRM, ALB, ALKS, AYX, AMZN, AEP, AMN, ANIK, ANTM, AAPL, AMAT, ATR, ADM, ARW, ATO, ADSK, BAX, BZH, BIO, BKH, BOOT, BRC, CBT, CDNS, CE, CNP, CHS, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CONN, CR, CRH, CW, DHR, XRAY, DOV, EMN, EMR, EPAM, EVH, EZPW, FB, FDS, FICO, FOE, FE, FISV, FLIR, FLS, FORM, GME, IT, GD, GILD, GPRO, HSC, HE, HSII, HNI, DHI, IDXX, ITW, ILMN, INOV, INTU, ISRG, NVTA, KBH, KELYA, KMT, KLAC, KLIC, LHX, LRCX, LEG, LEN, LLY, LXU, MHO, MTSI, MAN, MAS, MA, MTRX, MDCA, MU, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NFLX, NTGR, NWL, NWPX, NVDA, OGE, ASGN, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PAYX, PYPL, PRFT, PETS, PICO, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, ROG, ROST, SLB, SEE, SEIC, NOW, STMP, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TECH, TDOC, TER, TXN, TXT, TKR, TOL, RIG, TZOO, VEEV, VC, WWW, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, ZBRA, IYM, ITB, IHI, IEZ, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, FXI, IGV, SOXX, ECH, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWS, TUR, QLD, PBE, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, IXN, ILF, XLI, XLK, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/9/21. Slider Trading Quiz! LUV

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Southwest Airlines: LUV (actual trade).

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On Monday, I planned to insulate my water pipes so they would be less likely to burst. I took a mirror and light and peered into the cavity where the pipes are and looked down (using the mirror). I saw daylight. I couldn't believe it!

In other words, the pipes were open to the outside air. I was wondering why I was getting such a big draft when I punched through the kitchen wall, and I remember seeing the vapor barrier moving in and out as the wind blew.

From the outside, the opening is part of a transition between brick and the paneling as the picture shows. I removed the board which slides under the flashing and lays on top of the brick.

What's left is a hole. The hole goes in about the width of a 2x4 and then vertical. The vertical move is about 26" or so. The top of that is the back of the cavity where my pipes are located in the kitchen.

I spent 7 hours on diagnosing this, buying wood, and fixing it, but it got too dark to complete the job.

As I was about to call it a night, I tried to open my garage door. It went up halfway and then stopped. The motor was still spinning, trying to lift the door, but the door was stuck. My guess is the nylon gear in the door opener is stripped. This happened once before. I haven't checked on that, yet. It could be the garage door is pinched on its rise (but I can close it manually).

The mechanism is halfway to opening so I can't open the door more than that. And that means I can't get my car out. Sigh.

If trouble really comes in threes, then I wonder what comes next. 1) Cold snap/3 burst pipes. 2) Garage door opener breaks. 3) ?

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Here's a symbol list of 91 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AEIS, AFL, AEL, ANTM, BECN, BBBY, BIG, CAL, CF, CHS, CMCO, CAG, COST, CSGS, XRAY, DOV, FB, FICO, FDX, FLIR, FLS, FCX, GME, HBI, THG, HIG, HE, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOV, IPG, KMT, LLY, LNC, MCHX, MRTN, MAS, MA, MTRN, MUR, CNR, NOC, OMC, OXM, PKE, POR, PRU, RLI, CRM, SMG, SEE, SLGN, SCS, SUM, TECH, TPX, TSCO, RIG, TG, UPS, UNM, VLO, WWW, IYM, ITB, FXI, ICF, IAT, IYF, EEM, EWQ, EIS, EWY, EWT, TUR, PPA, PBE, ILF, XLF, XLI, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/8/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

On this chart, I highlight a chart patterns called a broadening top (A).

That chart pattern has price following two trendlines. One slopes upward and the one slopes downward so that the two trendlines diverge.

The breakout from this pattern is upward 60% of the time.

Will this one breakout upward, too? Here's a hint: Look at point B. Notice how price has dropped and appears to be moving back up. It's too early to tell for sure, but B looks to me like a particle decline.

A partial decline appears in some patterns (only a few, on a regular basis, like your broadening patterns) when price leaves the top trendline, heading down. It drops but doesn't come that close to the bottom trendline before reversing. An immediate upward breakout follows 72% of the time. An upward breakout looks like it's about to happen in this case, but only time will say if that's what happens.

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I released a new version of Patternz. It has a new feature (Main Form, Seasonality menu) called "Best Trading Time." This was inspired by Abe M. It allows you to ask the program, "What's the best time to buy if I want to make x% in y price bars?" (such as 5% in 10 bars or 100% in a year).

$ $ $

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 112 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ADTN, AEIS, AES, ALB, ALKS, ANIK, APA, AXS, BMI, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BA, BLDR, CBT, CLS, CHKP, CIEN, CAG, CONN, COP, CLR, CLGX, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, EBAY, EFX, EL, FEYE, FLEX, FCX, IT, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HQY, HP, HOLX, IVC, LAWS, RAMP, M, MCHX, MA, MTRN, MU, MS, MLI, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NCR, NTGR, OLN, ASGN, OUT, PKE, PTEN, PETS, PICO, RGS, ROG, SLGN, SWN, SRDX, TER, TXN, TSCO, RIG, TG, VEEV, WSO, WLK, WEX, XEL, IYM, IYC, IHE, FXI, IYZ, EWK, EEM, EWI, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWT, PPA, IEV, MXI, XLV, XHB, XLB, UNG, USO, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 3/5/21. Home Front Update. I Have Water!

No trading setups for the weekend. Instead, let me tell you how today's activity went.

I finally got my water turned back on after almost 3 weeks. As you may know, my water went off when I lost power in the roving blackouts when cold weather hit our area in early February.

Today, I had 2 burst pipes to fix (total of 3. I fixed one a week ago and waited for parts for the last two). I struggled with cutting the water pipe square. I made two pipe cuts and gave up. I walked to Home Depot and asked what I was doing wrong. The guy took my pipe cutter and my burst pipe and tried to cut off a bit. The pipe cutter was faulty (it started to spiral). He gave me a new one (for free!) which worked (I cut off a small portion of both pipes I'd cut earlier to make then 'square' and finished off the next burst pipe.

After I coupled everything together, I ran an air pressure test on the water line (pumping in air through a hose bib outside the house). This seemed to work but it was hard to tell with the compressor I was using. I tried it a few times, listened for leaks, and dribbled soapy water onto the dozen connections I'd made (I replaced cheap, leaky water and toilet valves with 1/4 turn things). All looked good.

Then I powered up the water, in 15 second increments, and checked for leaks. I found three new ones, all from water valves I changed under the sinks. One I forgot to tighten the compressing fitting. The other two just needed a little tightening on the compression side.

However, my master bath faucet didn't work. Water was on, but no water came out (no drips even). I cycled the new valves I put in, tried hot and cold, but that didn't change anything. I scratched my head over that.

I thought it unlikely that both new valves would be broken. I thought maybe the freeze toasted the Delta faucet. A busted faucet was a strong likelihood since all faucets in my house froze (inside temperature dropped to 29.9 degrees. The toilet bowl froze. I had an icicle in my upstairs faucet). If a pipe can burst, why not a faucet? I also thought that maybe heat from removing the old valves broke the faucet (unlikely because the faucet is 2 feet of copper pipe away).

I put that problem aside and turned on the water to the house then ran upstairs and down checking all dozen fittings for leaks. I left the house water pressurized for an hour and checked the water meter. No usage, meaning no leaks.

In the last attempt at fixing the no-water to my sink, I unscrewed the faucet screen and cleaned it out. I found debris. In fact, when I changed the hot water valve, I found a piece of tree bark in the line (which caused the hot water to sputter when coming out). Anyway, once I cleaned out the filter, the faucet worked just fine.

All I have to do now is replace the drywall and stuff more insulation into the kitchen where the pipes are. I can take a shower! I can cook spaghetti! I can flush the toilet. Yippee!

I'd like to thank the following for helping or offering to help. The world is a better place for having people like these in our lives. Cherish them.

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Here's a symbol list of 177 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACN, ACIW, AJRD, AFL, ALB, ALL, AMED, AEO, AMGN, AMN, APH, ANIK, ARCB, ARW, ASH, ADSK, AVNT, BMI, BSET, BAX, BA, EPAY, BRC, BLDR, BG, CX, CRL, CHD, CIEN, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLR, COST, COTY, CR, XRAY, DUK, EBAY, WIRE, EFX, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FFG, FIS, FEYE, FLEX, FMC, FWRD, FCX, GPS, GNW, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HTLD, HL, HNI, HOLX, HON, JBHT, IDXX, ILMN, IIIN, IPG, ISRG, NVTA, JCOM, KFRC, LEG, LEN, RAMP, M, MCHX, MAS, MTRN, MDT, MS, NTGR, NJR, NOC, NWPX, PYPL, PRFT, POR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, REV, RNG, RCKY, ROG, CRM, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SSYS, SRDX, SNPS, TDOC, TFX, TER, TMO, TKR, TOL, TSCO, RIG, TG, TREX, SLCA, VLO, VMI, VEEV, VC, WMT, WSO, WLK, WDAY, ITA, IYM, ITB, IHE, FTEC, FDN, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, ICF, IYH, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWS, EWL, EWT, EWU, IBB, PBE, PEJ, ROBO, IEV, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLK, UNG, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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Thursday 3/4/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Starting on the left, there's a complex head-and-shoulders bottom that's in need of a surgeon. This one has two heads and a right shoulder (RS) which would be better if it's more symmetrical (lower) so it matches the left shoulder (LS).

What caught my eye was how price has dropped in a Elliott wave, motive wave. That's a 5 segment move. In this case, price drops on segments 1, 3 and 5 and retraces on legs 2 and 4. Of course, I'm not an expert on EW, so I could be wrong about all of this. It suggests that price will rise in an ABC correction. That may have already started at the bounce as it reached 13,000.

On the daily chart (not shown), we see 13,000 as being a support area, so I'm looking for the index to close higher on Thursday. That also agrees with the above probabilities.

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Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, ACIW, ALB, AA, ALKS, AMED, ACGL, ASH, ADSK, ADP, BSET, BAX, BIIB, BMRN, BLDR, BG, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CENX, CVX, CHD, CIEN, CINF, CTXS, CGNX, CTSH, CAG, GLW, COST, DECK, XRAY, EXP, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FIVN, FCX, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HLIT, HQY, HON, HOV, ILMN, ISRG, NVTA, KALU, KBAL, LHX, LAMR, LLY, LMT, L, LXU, M, MCHX, MRTN, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MDT, MSFT, CNR, NTGR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OMI, PDCO, PRU, KWR, DGX, RGS, RNG, RHI, SAIA, CRM, SEIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TDOC, TMO, TSCO, RIG, TRV, TG, VFC, VC, WMT, WDAY, ZBRA, ITA, IYC, IHE, FDN, FXL, ICF, IYH, IHF, IGV, ECH, EPP, EWS, THD, IBB, PPA, PBE, PEJ, PJP, PHO, ROBO, ILF, XLV, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 3/3/21. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The red and green pair of vertical lines (far right on the chart) being so close to one another means a wicked whiplash turn. It's a sign of a strong down day followed by a strong push higher. It's interesting that the bearish signal wasn't wiped out by the bullish turn. Recall that any signal can be changed for up to a week before the concrete sets.

Right now, the indicator is bullish. If you look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, it looks as if the CPI has turned neutral (around 50).

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The two green lines show divergence. I mentioned this last week. The red line is climbing even as the index is falling.

The last chart was bullish and so is this one. So I expect the weakness in the markets to end soon.

However, we could form a head-and-shoulders top pattern with the February peak in the index being the head, the left shoulder is the January peak, and the right shoulder has yet to appear. If that interpretation is correct, then look for the index to drop before rising up to the right shoulder.

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Here's a symbol list of 150 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AXDX, AEIS, AMD, AFL, ALB, ALL, ADSK, ADP, AVNT, BMI, BRKS, BLDR, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CLS, CHD, CIEN, CLNE, CGNX, CL, CSOD, GLW, CREE, CSGS, DECK, XRAY, DTE, EXP, EBAY, WIRE, EPAM, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FB, FICO, FAST, FIVN, FLIR, FORM, FCX, GNW, GPRO, GGG, GFF, HQY, HOV, HUBG, IDA, IDXX, ITW, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, JCOM, KBAL, LZB, LLY, LXU, MHO, MTSI, M, MANH, MCHX, MLM, MTRN, MDC, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MSFT, MS, NFG, CNR, NXGN, OMI, PANW, PDCO, PYPL, PINC, KWR, QCOM, RMBS, RGS, RNG, RHI, ROST, SAIC, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SSYS, SNPS, TGT, TJX, TSCO, TG, TREX, VMI, VC, VMC, WRB, WU, WWW, WDAY, XLNX, ZBRA, IYC, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EWH, EIS, EWM, EWW, EWD, QLD, PXJ, QQQ, ROBO, ILF, XLY, XLK, SMH, VHT, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 3/2/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Rohm and Haas

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I show another slider trading quiz featuring Rohm and Haas: ROH (actual trade)

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I ran a pressure test of my home's water lines and found two more burst pipes, joining a third one I've fixed. I'm waiting for parts to arrive so I can fix those two and run another pressure test. It's been more than 2 weeks since I've had running water at home.

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Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AMD, APD, ALRM, ALB, AEE, AXS, BMI, BERY, BKH, BBW, CACI, CENX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CGNX, CMTL, CLGX, CSOD, CR, CCK, DHR, XRAY, DVN, DDS, DFS, ^DJI, EXP, EMN, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EXPD, FFIV, FAST, FDX, FRD, GME, IT, GNW, THG, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HP, HOLX, HON, IEX, INOV, ISRG, JKHY, K, KBAL, KLAC, LHX, LZB, LRCX, LANC, LNC, LMT, MHO, MANH, MTRX, MGEE, NBR, NTGR, NEU, OTEX, OXM, PKG, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PNW, PINC, RNG, ROK, RCKY, ^GSPC, SLB, SCHW, SAIC, SIGI, SLGN, SNPS, TPX, TRV, TG, TREX, VFC, VMI, WMT, WERN, WDAY, XLNX, ITA, IYK, IHI, IEZ, DDM, IYH, IAT, IYZ, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWH, EWJ, EPP, EWS, EWD, EWL, THD, EWU, PPA, PEJ, PXJ, PJP, PHO, MXI, GLD, XLV, XLI, XLU, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 3/1/21. 2021 Forecast Update

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for March, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 26 February 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

Look at the month ago rank. They have bounced around a lot. Energy was top of the list last month and now it's 9th. Information technology ranks first, joining a position it held for most of last year. I'm glad it's in first place because that's where I put my bucks this year when adjusting my portfolio for year-ahead performance.

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

As the list shows, most of the industries are new this month. Auto components posted a blockbuster gain of 66%. The rank, for the three industries which made this list, show how well they are doing on a consistent basis. I like to see stability, so that a trend in motion remains in motion.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

I found 59 pipe bottoms last week, which is very bullish! Large numbers of pipe bottoms often signal the start of a short to intermediate-term move up before price drops back down, forming an unconfirmed double bottom.

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, AYI, AMD, AFL, ALK, ADS, DOX, AEE, AEO, AEP, AXP, AFG, ABC, APOG, ARCB, ASH, AIZ, ATO, ADSK, ADP, BAX, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, BAH, BBW, CACI, CALM, CAL, CNC, CENX, CSCO, CLF, CNA, CNO, CGNX, ED, CAG, COTY, CRH, CCRN, CSGS, CW, DFS, EMN, EPAM, EVH, EXPD, FFIV, FFG, FOE, FIS, FRD, GME, GNW, GFF, HBI, THG, HSC, HIG, HTLD, HSIC, HSY, HNI, HOLX, HD, INOV, IPAR, ISRG, JKHY, K, KFRC, KBAL, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LNC, RAMP, MHO, MANH, MAN, MRTN, MLI, NCR, NVDA, ORI, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PDCO, PYPL, PCG, POR, PPL, PFG, PEG, RGA, RNG, RLI, ROST, SEE, SIGI, SKX, SO, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, SNPS, TGT, TDOC, TFX, TRV, TREX, SLCA, WRB, WERN, WMB, XEL, XLNX, IHE, DDM, FXI, ICF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWA, EWO, EWZ, EWC, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EIS, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EWY, EWD, EWT, THD, EWU, PHO, IEV, ILF, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLV. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

-- Thomas Bulkowski