As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024

Bulkowski's August 2022 Forecast Update

Released 8/1/2022.

Forecast Updated for August 2022

Below is the updated forecast for 2022 as of the close on August 1. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.


1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The CPI is bullish but if you look at the thin blue indicator line, it has turned down. It suggests a retrace is coming.

The next chart looks at the 2022 forecast update for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

The red line is the forecast which I made on January 1, 2022. The horizontal line at B says the index should close down for the year. We'll have to wait and see if that actually happens.

At A, the forecast made its low for the year. That's about a month after the low at C, so far.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

Same deal as the prior chart. The horizontal blue line shows the index closing lower than where it began. The two vertical blue lines highlight the forecast low and actual low, so far. Notice that the actual Nasdaq has been down the entire year, but the forecast was in positive territory until May.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

The is the S&P 500 index. Predicted lower for the year and the forecast low is about a month off from the actual.

Next 2026 forecast.
5 / 5
2022 forecast chart

Here's the 10-year monthly forecast for the S&P 500. The forecast is to reach the low for the entire chart within a month and to rise thereafter. It'll almost triple in 10 years if the forecast is correct.

What does all of this mean? Now's a terrific time to buy.

The end.

See Also

 
Top of page
 

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."

My Stock Market Books
My Novels

Copyright © 2005-2024 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Donate Privacy/Disclaimer