Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 03/27/2020
  Indus: 21,637 -915.39 -4.1%  
  Trans: 7,699 -346.29 -4.3%  
  Utils: 759 +1.01 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 7,502 -295.16 -3.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,541 -88.60 -3.4%  
YTD
-24.2%  
-29.4%  
-13.7%  
-16.4%  
-21.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/15/2020  
  Down arrow19,000 or 25,600 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow6,700 or 9,000 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow600 or 800 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow7,000 or 8,400 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow2,300 or 2,900 by 04/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/27/20
As of 03/27/2020
  Indus: 21,637 -915.39 -4.1%  
  Trans: 7,699 -346.29 -4.3%  
  Utils: 759 +1.01 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 7,502 -295.16 -3.8%  
  S&P 500: 2,541 -88.60 -3.4%  
YTD
-24.2%  
-29.4%  
-13.7%  
-16.4%  
-21.3%  
  Targets    Overview: 03/15/2020  
  Down arrow19,000 or 25,600 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow6,700 or 9,000 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow600 or 800 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow7,000 or 8,400 by 04/15/2020
  Down arrow2,300 or 2,900 by 04/15/2020
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/27/20

 

March 2020 Headlines

Archives


Monday 3/30/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show a chart of the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

You see a nice sustainable uptrend until the market learns of Covid-19. Then down she goes. However, the index didn't drop as far as I expected it to.

I think the index (or the markets, really) will follow the red line. If I'm right, the markets will struggle to move higher and drop (A) to form a second bottom (B).

As the indices approach the level of the prior bottom (mid March), everyone will jump in and buy, sending the indices back up. So have your buy orders in place, ready to trigger automatically, placed above the price of the prior low.

Of course, the AB move might not happen. The index could continue down or resume the upward move.

I listened to the Starbucks CEO say that their stores in China were closed, but 7 weeks later, most of them (96%) are back open now.

That means America will be shut down to at least June if we follow the same schedule.

Meanwhile, the chart pattern indicator has turned bearish again, reversing the bullish signal which appeared 5 days ago. The reading (33%) is slightly below the bearish 35% minimum, so it's close and a large gain will erase it. So we'll have to see what happens.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 582.05 points.
Tuesday: Up 2112.98 points.
Wednesday: Up 495.64 points.
Thursday: Up 1351.62 points.
Friday: Down 915.39 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 2462.8 points or 12.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 622.86 points or 9.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 236.55 points or 10.3%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     26.8% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     18.8% up from the low of 18,213.65 on 03/23/2020.
Nasdaq
     23.7% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     13.1% up from the low of 6,631.42 on 03/23/2020.
S&P 500
     25.1% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     16.0% up from the low of 2,191.86 on 03/23/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,953  21,295  21,811  22,153  22,670 
Weekly  16,434  19,035  20,815  23,417  25,197 
Monthly  12,562  17,099  22,751  27,289  32,940 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,463  2,502  2,559  2,598  2,655 
Weekly  2,012  2,277  2,457  2,722  2,902 
Monthly  1,596  2,069  2,664  3,137  3,732 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,345  7,424  7,570  7,649  7,795 
Weekly  6,136  6,819  7,315  7,998  8,493 
Monthly  5,127  6,315  7,819  9,006  10,510 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 46.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 47.8%   Expect a random direction. 
 3 months down 5.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 49.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 2 months down 14.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
77Dead-cat bounce
25Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
20Flag, high and tight
17Vertical move down
6Double Top, Eve and Adam
4V bottoms
2Pipe top
2Head-and-shoulders top
1Vertical move up
1Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Healthcare Information2. Healthcare Information
3. Semiconductor3. Biotechnology
4. Biotechnology4. Household Products
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computer Software and Svcs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/27/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Be careful trading high and tight flags. You'll see a lot of them this week. If they behave like they did after the 2007-2009 bear market, they'll have a high failure rate and those that make money, won't make a lot of it. But, maybe it's different this time...

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 43 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 7.2%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 20 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (24) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
DDDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202003/23/2020Electronics
AYIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
APDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202003/23/2020Chemical (Diversified)
AELFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Insurance (Life)
AXPDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Financial Services
AMWDDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/19/202003/23/2020Building Materials
APOGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/19/202003/23/2020Building Materials
AWIDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Building Materials
ASNAPennant      03/12/202003/24/2020Apparel
ASHDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Chemical (Basic)
AGOFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Insurance (Life)
BSETDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
BAFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Aerospace/Defense
CALFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Shoe
CONNFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Retail (Special Lines)
COTYFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
CROXFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Shoe
EIXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202003/23/2020Electric Utility (West)
EMRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Computers and Peripherals
EXCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202003/23/2020Electric Utility (East)
GEDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Diversified Co.
HSCFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Diversified Co.
HSICDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Medical Supplies
HSYDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Food Processing
HOVFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Homebuilding
IVCDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Medical Supplies
NVTAFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Medical Services
KBHFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Homebuilding
LAMRFlag, high and tight      03/23/202003/26/2020Advertising
LEGDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
LXUPipe bottom      03/09/202003/16/2020Building Materials
MHOFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Homebuilding
MDTDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Medical Supplies
NBLFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Petroleum (Producing)
OUTFlag, high and tight      03/23/202003/26/2020Advertising
PATKFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Retail Building Supply
PNWDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/18/202003/23/2020Electric Utility (West)
POLFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Chemical (Specialty)
PRUDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202003/23/2020Insurance (Life)
SREDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/16/202003/23/2020Electric Utility (West)
TPRDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/17/202003/23/2020Apparel
TFXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      03/19/202003/23/2020Diversified Co.
TPXFlag, high and tight      03/19/202003/26/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
SLCAFlag, high and tight      03/18/202003/26/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/19/2020 and 03/26/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
3D Systems (DDD)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 133 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $7.52
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.42 or 28.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.06%
Volume: 3,058,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Acuity Brands, Inc (AYI)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 431 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $85.64
1 Month avg volatility: $7.31. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.70 or 24.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -37.94%
Volume: 482,200 shares. 3 month avg: 670,414 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 156 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $201.34
1 Month avg volatility: $14.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $161.32 or 19.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -14.32%
Volume: 1,512,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,051,743 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $20.61
1 Month avg volatility: $2.35. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.41 or 35.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -31.14%
Volume: 1,144,000 shares. 3 month avg: 625,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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American Express Co (AXP)
Industry: Financial Services
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 321 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $93.29
1 Month avg volatility: $7.93. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $74.99 or 19.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -25.06%
Volume: 9,459,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 467 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $52.75
1 Month avg volatility: $7.61. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.04 or 29.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -49.53%
Volume: 205,900 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $21.59
1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.55 or 32.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -33.57%
Volume: 298,700 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/23/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 202 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $83.47
1 Month avg volatility: $6.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.21 or 21.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.17%
Volume: 310,600 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 575 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $1.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.74 or 56.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -77.82%
Volume: 548,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/24/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 61% of the time.
Average rise: 25%.
Break-even failure rate: 2%.
Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

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Ashland Inc. (ASH)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $51.48
1 Month avg volatility: $3.90. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.20 or 23.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -32.73%
Volume: 717,600 shares. 3 month avg: 610,854 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 440 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $29.08
1 Month avg volatility: $2.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.49 or 29.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.68%
Volume: 1,101,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 551 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $6.70
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.42 or 34.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -59.83%
Volume: 92,600 shares. 3 month avg: 28,538 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Boeing Company, The (BA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $180.55
1 Month avg volatility: $19.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $127.51 or 29.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.58%
Volume: 63,172,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,332,308 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Caleres (CAL)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 583 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $6.09
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.56 or 41.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -74.36%
Volume: 968,400 shares. 3 month avg: 329,342 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/14/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/15/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/14/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 587 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $5.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.78. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.30 or 37.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -57.30%
Volume: 753,200 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Coty (COTY)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 443 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $6.68
1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.68 or 44.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.62%
Volume: 14,299,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,764,371 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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CROCS Inc (CROX)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 430 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $18.43
1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $12.55 or 31.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -56.00%
Volume: 2,284,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/28/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/27/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Edison International (EIX)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $57.73
1 Month avg volatility: $4.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $44.89 or 22.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -23.45%
Volume: 3,211,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,498,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Emerson Electric (EMR)
Industry: Computers and Peripherals
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 357 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $48.80
1 Month avg volatility: $4.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.67 or 22.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -36.01%
Volume: 6,629,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,509,922 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Exelon Corp. (EXC)
Industry: Electric Utility (East)
Industry RS rank: 18 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 364 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $36.59
1 Month avg volatility: $3.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.17 or 23.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.74%
Volume: 6,792,000 shares. 3 month avg: 5,244,875 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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General Electric Co (GE)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 185 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $8.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.04 or 25.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.24%
Volume: 123,153,400 shares. 3 month avg: 74,714,158 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Harsco Corp (HSC)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 565 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $7.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.38 or 42.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -67.10%
Volume: 953,100 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/28/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/27/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 214 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $53.56
1 Month avg volatility: $4.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.91 or 23.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -19.72%
Volume: 10,243,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,211,905 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hershey Company, The (HSY)
Industry: Food Processing
Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 212 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $132.45
1 Month avg volatility: $9.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $107.12 or 19.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -9.89%
Volume: 1,440,300 shares. 3 month avg: 973,146 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 515 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $10.35
1 Month avg volatility: $2.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.21 or 49.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -50.41%
Volume: 305,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Invacare Corp. (IVC)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 117 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $6.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.21 or 38.2% below the close.
Change YTD: -24.61%
Volume: 427,000 shares. 3 month avg: 553,063 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 7 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 263 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $16.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.12 or 38.1% below the close.
Change YTD: 1.30%
Volume: 3,951,600 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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KB Home Corp. (KBH)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 477 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $19.08
1 Month avg volatility: $2.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.28 or 30.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.32%
Volume: 4,865,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 451 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $51.63
1 Month avg volatility: $6.98. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $36.17 or 29.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -42.16%
Volume: 1,467,600 shares. 3 month avg: 612,354 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 366 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $30.31
1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $21.91 or 27.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -40.37%
Volume: 1,405,400 shares. 3 month avg: 981,391 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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LSB Industries Inc (LXU)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 562 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $2.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.71 or 23.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -46.67%
Volume: 146,600 shares. 3 month avg: 278,209 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/16/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 10/29/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 04/28/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 513 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $20.02
1 Month avg volatility: $2.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.18 or 34.1% below the close.
Change YTD: -49.12%
Volume: 504,500 shares. 3 month avg: 256,088 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Medtronic Inc (MDT)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 226 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $91.94
1 Month avg volatility: $5.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $78.55 or 14.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.96%
Volume: 12,537,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,761,640 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 581 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $6.21
1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.37 or 45.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -75.00%
Volume: 12,830,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Outfont Media (OUT)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 547 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $12.79
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.47 or 33.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -52.31%
Volume: 3,398,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Patrick Industries Inc (PATK)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 337 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $31.78
1 Month avg volatility: $4.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $19.59 or 38.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -39.39%
Volume: 479,500 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 289 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $79.34
1 Month avg volatility: $6.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $60.10 or 24.3% below the close.
Change YTD: -11.78%
Volume: 1,217,500 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Polyone Corp (POL)
Industry: Chemical (Specialty)
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $18.89
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.64 or 27.8% below the close.
Change YTD: -48.65%
Volume: 1,156,200 shares. 3 month avg: 446,563 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 468 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $54.65
1 Month avg volatility: $4.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.41 or 22.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -41.70%
Volume: 5,747,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,669,805 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Sempra Energy (SRE)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 218 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $123.60
1 Month avg volatility: $9.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $90.59 or 26.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -18.41%
Volume: 2,017,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,356,452 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tapestry Inc (TPR)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 470 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $15.16
1 Month avg volatility: $1.76. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.51 or 30.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -43.79%
Volume: 6,986,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,145,718 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/17/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 238 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $289.99
1 Month avg volatility: $22.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $233.54 or 19.5% below the close.
Change YTD: -22.97%
Volume: 366,600 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/23/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Tempur-pedic Intl (TPX)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 447 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $48.09
1 Month avg volatility: $6.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.28 or 32.9% below the close.
Change YTD: -44.76%
Volume: 2,449,300 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 03/26/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 589 out of 590
3/26/20 close: $1.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.81 or 52.6% below the close.
Change YTD: -72.20%
Volume: 4,297,900 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 03/26/2020
WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 69%.
Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

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Thursday Addendum

Just a quick note. After I posted to my blog Wednesday night, I had a thought. Next month, companies will begin reporting quarterly earnings.

What do you think the results will be? The likely-poor numbers will rattle the markets, but they are already down 25% year-to-date, so maybe the earnings results are already factored in.

If not, then perhaps the results will be the catalyst to send the markets back down to their recent lows.

-- Thomas Bulkowski


Thursday 3/26/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.5% or -33.56 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 352 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 173 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 179 occasions.
Expect the index to close lower 50.9% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 187/334 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

The markets had hoped the $2T consumer/industry bailout would happen today, and when it didn't look likely, the indices dropped. The snag is a $600 addition (for 4 months) added to unemployment checks. For low income earners, the addition might push their compensation past what they would earn normally. To put it another way, they'd earn more from being unemployed than being employed. Republicans apparently had a problem with that. Democrats said, "So what? This is an emergency..."

Those of you who qualify and have an IRS direct deposit will get your checks quickly (when the bill becomes law). Otherwise checks will be printed and mailed, taking several more weeks to arrive.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

A nice looking head-and-shoulders bottom appears in red on the chart (S=shoulders, H=head). Unfortunately, confirmation happened the next day after a gap upward. It still led to a nice gain. You just had to wait for it.

I drew a thin green line under the valleys to see what it says. There's only two touches of this line, so it's unreliable. Even so, the index has pierced it, moving down.

When the spending bill passes congress, I expect the indices to move higher but then continue lower as more covid-19 news comes out. Maybe some prominent people dying will shake things up. Imagine if Trump, Sanders, and Biden all died of the virus. That would throw the elections into chaos.

Anyway, I still expect the indices to round over and form a second bottom. That may take a week or two, but it's also possible the indices will V bottom and just continue higher from here.

With all of the bad news coming in the next 3 weeks, I still have a hard time believing that the indices will ignore it and soar. I've placed my buy orders above recent lows and hope they get triggered. Usually they don't, but who knows?

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  4,817.67    
 Monthly S1  6,100.98  1,283.32   
 Weekly S2  6,428.45  327.46   
 Weekly S1  6,906.37  477.93   
 Daily S2  7,049.16  142.79   
 Weekly Pivot  7,164.29  115.13   
 Daily S1  7,216.73  52.44   
 Low  7,276.40  59.67   
 Close  7,384.30  107.90   
 Open  7,421.36  37.06   Yes! The Open is close to the Close.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,427.22  5.86   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  7,443.97  16.75   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  7,473.81  29.83   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  7,520.39  46.59   
 Daily R1  7,611.54  91.15   
 Weekly R1  7,642.21  30.67   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R1.
 High  7,671.21  29.00   Yes! The High is close to the Weekly R1.
 Daily R2  7,838.78  167.57   
 Weekly R2  7,900.13  61.35   
 Monthly Pivot  7,969.68  69.55   
 Monthly R1  9,252.99  1,283.32   
 Monthly R2  11,121.69  1,868.69   

Wednesday 3/25/20. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator moved from close to 0 to 100% in one day. Why? Because the indices soared on hope that congress would add over $2 trillion to the national debt. Ouch.

The indicator is signaling a return to a bullish stance with the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart. However, that signal is new. It can change for up to a week, so it might disappear. With an 11% move higher, I feel the signal has a good chance of being real. The markets would have to tumble to unwind it. That's possible and the next few days should tell us if that's going to happen. Usually a signal is stable after 3 days, but in this market, I don't know if that still applies.

My thinking about the markets is that it'll coast higher for a week, maybe less, maybe more, but then drop again. It'll form a second bottom. If you haven't bought yet, that might be the time to buy.

It's also possible that the markets are in the beginning stage of a v-bottom or more likely, an extended v-bottom. This week's quiz was on the v-bottom. Timely.

Way back when, I thought we'd get a V bottom then talked my way out of it. The virus will be around for a month or two, so there's lots of pain coming. That pain should keep the markets depressed. That was my thinking. However, the markets look 6 months into the future. If that's really the case, then the indices should be moving up. I expect the economy to snap back fast when the virus fades, but I also worry about another pandemic this coming flu season.

So there's lots of uncertainty to keep markets worried.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 92% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 86%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 96% on 03/23/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 42% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 40%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 48% on 03/23/2020.

Despite today's big move higher, the red and blue lines are lower compared to a week ago. No surprise there because of the steep drop during the week.

Maybe Wednesday's and Thursday's action will help better define if this is a one-day wonder or a lasting rise.

Imagine this: Everyone who is waiting for the bottom to be put in place, decides to buy. The Dow soars (which is what we saw today) and then what? Who is left to buy? Oops. One seller too many forces the market down and down it goes. Those that bought may panic sell, forcing the markets down even more. One can say that the markets are cheap compared to where they were a month ago, so now is a good time to buy. You can ride the index up if you have the guts to ride this volatile market. It's clear we are closer to a bottom than a top.

One reliable indicator I like is if bad news fails to depress the market. Things are getting worse and the market went up by 11% today. What does that tell you?

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/24/20. Slider Quiz! V Bottoms

The index dropped by -3.0% or -582.05 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 22 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 14 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.9% on 8 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 63.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 201/345 or 58.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I present another slider quiz featuring the V bottom chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  11,814.53    
 Monthly S1  15,203.23  3,388.70   
 Weekly S2  16,908.40  1,705.17   
 Daily S2  17,734.84  826.43   
 Weekly S1  17,750.17  15.33   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Daily S1  18,163.38  413.22   
 Low  18,213.65  50.27   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  18,560.26  346.61   
 Close  18,591.93  31.67   Yes! The Close is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 Daily Pivot  18,642.20  50.27   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the Close.
 50% Down from Intraday High  18,667.33  25.13   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  18,774.40  107.07   
 Open  19,028.36  253.96   
 Daily R1  19,070.74  42.38   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  19,121.01  50.27   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  19,549.56  428.55   
 Weekly Pivot  19,759.22  209.67   
 Weekly R1  20,600.99  841.76   
 Monthly Pivot  22,306.16  1,705.17   
 Weekly R2  22,610.04  303.88   
 Monthly R1  25,694.86  3,084.82   
 Monthly R2  32,797.79  7,102.93   

Monday 3/23/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the monthly scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the monthly scale, so we can get some perspective on the rise and coming retrace.

The chart shows the end of the 2008 bear market where there's a little green circle on the chart (it's the lowest price on the chart). Another circle appears at the 2020 bull market peak. That's at the top of the chart.

I did a Fibonacci retrace of the move from low to high and the red lines show three possibilities.

The market dropped through the 38% Fib retrace and it's approaching the 50% retrace. It the market reaches 18,000, then we'll have given up half of the gains of the past 11 years. Ouch.

I fully expect that we'll drop to that and keep going down. My expectation is we'll reach the 62% retrace.

To drop that far, it'll take some time, maybe another month, maybe just a few weeks from now. When the economic numbers come in, the markets will drop. When everyone is quarantined, or fighting over a ventilator, or even a hospital bed, then you'll understand why the market drop was so steep.

To protect yourself, you can write covered calls, but with such large swings in the markets, that's probably not a good idea unless the premium you receive is huge. You might buy some protective puts on existing positions to help cushion the drop. My guess is those will be expensive, too. You can go into cash and wait for the bottom. Or you can ignore it all and wait. Save your cash. Don't buy now.

Another option is to buy long an ETF which shorts the market. I've done that in the past. When the market drops, the ETF rises. Some of those funds are leveraged, but those are for short-term plays. In this volatile market, they might make sense for a day or two swing trades.

When the market bottoms, then that's the time to buy long (your stocks, not the short ETFs).

Unfortunately, no one will know when that will be. So you may want to average down to try and time the bottom. I'd wait for a 62% retrace to be hit first. And I'd go all-in if the retrace reaches 75% or higher.

Recovery is going to take years, I expect. When we're back up to 30,000, you'll look back and say "I wish I bought more at the low."

Of course, some of you reading this may not be around, including me.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 2997.1 points.
Tuesday: Up 1048.86 points.
Wednesday: Down 1338.46 points.
Thursday: Up 188.27 points.
Friday: Down 913.21 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 4011.64 points or 17.3%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 995.36 points or 12.6%.
The S&P 500 index was down 406.1 points or 15.0%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     35.2% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     1.4% up from the low of 18,917.46 on 03/18/2020.
Nasdaq
     30.1% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     2.9% up from the low of 6,686.36 on 03/18/2020.
S&P 500
     32.1% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     1.1% up from the low of 2,280.52 on 03/18/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/20/2020, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
140 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  18,163  18,668  19,600  20,105  21,037 
Weekly  17,102  18,138  19,953  20,989  22,804 
Monthly  12,009  15,591  22,500  26,083  32,992 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,194  2,249  2,351  2,407  2,509 
Weekly  2,100  2,203  2,383  2,485  2,665 
Monthly  1,547  1,926  2,660  3,039  3,773 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  6,530  6,705  7,030  7,204  7,529 
Weekly  6,260  6,570  6,996  7,306  7,732 
Monthly  4,649  5,764  7,801  8,916  10,953 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 13.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 11.6%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 3 months down 5.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 13.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 14.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
83Dead-cat bounce
17Vertical move down
9Double Top, Adam and Adam
6Double Top, Eve and Adam
5Pipe top
4V bottoms
3Head-and-shoulders top
2Broadening top, right-angled and ascending
2Triangle, symmetrical
2Broadening bottom

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Short ETFs
2. Healthcare Information2. Healthcare Information
3. Biotechnology3. Medical Services
4. Household Products4. Biotechnology
5. Computer Software and Svcs5. Computers and Peripherals

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/20/20. The Covid Crash

Instead of my Friday patterns, which will be like last week -- mostly dead cat bounces, I thought I'd review the Covid-19 timeline.

1. Dec 31 to Jan 3: The World Health Organization learned of 44 patients with a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan, China. One report says the first case happened on 17 November.

Jan 7: The Chinese isolate Covid-19, a new virus.

2. Jan 9: the Chinese health authorities and WHO announced the discovery of Covid-19 as the cause of the pneumonia.

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

3. Over the weekend of Jan 11-12, China shares the genetic sequence of Covid-19 to help countries develop diagnostic kits. On Jan 13, the first case of Covid-19 appears outside of China, in Thailand.

4. Jan 21: US confirms first case of Covid-19, in Washington.

5. Jan 30: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirms its first case of person-to-person transmission. The next day, Pres. Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China during the prior 2 weeks. The next day, the Dow is down 603.

A. Feb 24: The CDC confirms 53 cases of Covid-19, with 39 of them coming from a cruise ship. I didn't find any significant Covid-19 related cause for the large drop in the Dow. Dow down 1,031.

6. Feb 27: The US confirms the first community spread Covid-19 case. Dow down 1,190.

7. Feb 29 (Saturday): First US death reported. On Monday, Dow up 1,293.

B. Mar 3: FED cuts interest rates by half a percentage point. Dow down 785.

8. Mar 6: President signs $8.3 billion in Covid 19 spending. Dow down 256.

9. Mar 11: US restricts travel from Europe. Dow drops 1,464

10. Mar 15 (Sunday): FED cuts interest rate to 0%. Dow drops 2,997 on Monday.

This article looks at other market events, like 9-11, the crash of 1929, 1987 and so on.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Thursday 3/19/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -4.7% or -344.94 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 2 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.8% on 1 occasions.
     Average loss was -9.4% on 1 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/333 or 55.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew two lines, the red one connects the tops and touches them several times.

The bottom one, the green one, has several touches but only from turn B and to the right. The AB line has two touches, so it's not a good trendline. However, it does show that the steepness of the drop is starting to mellow. In other words, the drop is more shallow after B than before, if you accept the two-touch trendline.

Are we coming closer to the end of the decline? I think we have more to come, especially as the weak economic numbers begin to show the full impact of the virus. We may not know that for weeks to months.

There will come a point when the market is so oversold that the smart money will buy, but buy cautiously, a nibble here and there because they'll continue to expect a drop.

I still think that this is a type of decline where big money can be made. Unfortunately, it may take years for the indices to return to their old highs.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  5,363.93    
 Monthly S1  6,176.88  812.96   
 Weekly S2  6,357.91  181.02   
 Daily S2  6,456.54  98.63   
 Weekly S1  6,673.87  217.33   
 Low  6,686.36  12.49   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  6,723.19  36.83   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  6,876.01  152.82   
 Open  6,902.32  26.31   Yes! The Open is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  6,934.60  32.28   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 Daily Pivot  6,953.01  18.41   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  6,989.84  36.83   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  6,993.18  3.34   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 High  7,182.83  189.65   
 Daily R1  7,219.66  36.83   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R2  7,449.48  229.82   
 Weekly Pivot  7,510.64  61.16   
 Weekly R1  7,826.60  315.97   
 Monthly Pivot  8,007.63  181.02   
 Weekly R2  8,663.37  655.74   
 Monthly R1  8,820.58  157.22   
 Monthly R2  10,651.33  1,830.74   

Wednesday 3/18/20. More Down Coming!

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The most recent signal of red or green, shows the indicator remains bearish. That's shown on the chart as a tall vertical red bar on the right of the chart.

However, the thin blue line at the bottom reveals that the indicator has slipped into neutral territory: above 35. It started the upward move about 4 days ago, according to this chart.

Another big down day will wipe the upward move off the chart. That's because the indicator can change for up to a week.

Look at the gaps as the index drops. I circled a continuation gap. The gap usually appears about midway in the trend. If that's correct, then we've a long way down yet to come. The projection, eyeballing it, suggests a drop to 2,280 or so. That's about where the 72 is on the right scale.

A closer look at the gap shows that it closed two days later. Continuation gaps don't close that quickly, but area gaps do. Exhaustion gaps close fast, too, but usually take a week, not two days.

So this is probably an area gap, but the large pullback (to close the gap) was expected and the index continued lower. All of this suggests that it's a continuation gap masquerading as an area gap. Besides, it looks like it's in the middle of the down trend which began just above 324 on the right scale. So I'll stick to my 2280 estimate of r the index.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 86% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 66%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 93% on 03/16/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 40% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 30%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 44% on 03/16/2020.

Both lines continue to drop, compared to the prior week, by unprecedented rates. But they just follow the index lower, so there's not much to say except most stocks that I follow are suffering.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tutorial Tuesday 3/17/20. Slider Tut on Stop Adjustment

$ $ $

A slider tutorial: if you should adjust your stop.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  15,223.07    
 Monthly S1  17,705.80  2,482.72   
 Weekly S2  18,254.80  549.00   
 Daily S2  19,039.27  784.47   
 Weekly S1  19,221.66  182.39   
 Daily S1  19,613.89  392.23   
 Low  20,116.46  502.57   
 Close  20,188.52  72.06   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  20,691.09  502.57   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  20,747.46  56.37   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  20,917.53  170.07   
 50% Down from Intraday High  20,942.37  24.84   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Open.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  21,137.29  194.92   
 Daily R1  21,265.71  128.43   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  21,768.28  502.57   
 Weekly Pivot  22,121.32  353.04   
 Daily R2  22,342.91  221.59   
 Weekly R1  23,088.18  745.27   
 Monthly Pivot  23,637.18  549.00   
 Weekly R2  25,987.84  2,350.66   
 Monthly R1  26,119.91  132.07   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  32,051.29  5,931.39   

Sunday Evening Update

After listening to the news, I lowered my targets for the indices dramatically. I think the markets are going down big. I hope I'm wrong, but I expect Monday will be a bad day. I wouldn't be surprised if the market dropped thousands more (3,000? 5,000?). I also extended the duration of the forecast to April 15, giving the markets time to drop that much. I don't know about the timing, but I feel certain everyone is going to sell, forcing the market down a lot. And it'll get worse in the coming few weeks as covid 19 starts to shut everything down.

My advice is to stay home and hoard your cash. When we bottom, buy everything you can. That's when you'll make the big money. Just hold off for now.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Monday 3/16/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P index on the monthlyscale.

I show the S & P 500 index on the monthly scale. Why? Because I wanted to see how far down the index has plunged compared to support zones.

I show all of that in the chart.

The red horizontal line (C) shows what I think is a support area. We've a ways to drop (A to C) before we find support and that concerns me. Notice the rise from C to D is a straight-line one. That means there's little support when price drops at yet it did find support B and A. So the monthly chart doesn't do justice to support on this scale.

Look at the candle pattern at B. It shows a tall black candle followed by a tall white one. The black one has a long lower shadow (the thin line below the black, solid body).

The candle at B is an inside day even though it's on the monthly scale. In the candle world, the closest synonym is a bullish harami. It's not a perfect fit, but it'll suffice. The candle is bullish and we see that in the rise following B.

I'm thinking that candle A will form the same pattern. It might not, of course. But the tall lower shadow at A looks a lot like the shadow at B.

I told my brother that we might have put in a low in the Dow industrials, but then lowered my targets anyway. There's still a lot of uncertainty.

On the home front, the county next to where I live reported that covid 19 is now community spread. So I decided to go grocery shopping. The store was packed with people, despite it being Friday, at noon, and raining. More surprising is that the store shelves were empty. Not all of them, of course, probably about 10% to 15% (Walmart neighborhood grocery). So I went to another store and it was about 20% bare (a Walmart super center). There's a run on grocery items now. That's interesting and we haven't really seen the full effects of the virus yet.

My concern is that people will get it and there won't be a bed available in the hospital for them. If they do find a bed, there won't be ventilator equipment to keep them alive.

I watched a video on the news of a situation in Italy. Behind the guy filming this was a women, in bed, dead. She wasn't in a hospital (she was at home), she didn't have a ventilator, and the authorities refused to come collect the body. Ouch. Will it get that bad here?

About a week ago, I asked an employee at the neighborhood grocery if management were making plans for covid 19. "No." Were they worried? "No." Oops. Today, employees were trying to restock the shelves when I was shopping, making it even more crowed. The parking lots were full. I've never seen either store as crowded as it was today. I wonder what the shelves were like at 5 pm...

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 2013.76 points.
Tuesday: Up 1167.14 points.
Wednesday: Down 1464.94 points.
Thursday: Down 2352.6 points.
Friday: Up 1985 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 2679.16 points or 10.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 700.74 points or 8.2%.
The S&P 500 index was down 261.35 points or 8.8%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     21.6% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     9.6% up from the low of 21,154.46 on 03/12/2020.
Nasdaq
     20.0% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     9.5% up from the low of 7,194.67 on 03/12/2020.
S&P 500
     20.1% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     9.4% up from the low of 2,478.86 on 03/12/2020.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/13/2020, the CPI had:

2 bearish patterns,
3 bullish patterns,
14 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 60.0%, which is neutral (between 35% and 65%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  20,649  21,917  22,554  23,822  24,458 
Weekly  19,254  21,220  23,120  25,086  26,987 
Monthly  16,222  19,704  24,636  28,118  33,050 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,419  2,565  2,638  2,784  2,857 
Weekly  2,287  2,499  2,691  2,903  3,095 
Monthly  1,946  2,329  2,861  3,243  3,776 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  7,000  7,437  7,657  8,094  8,313 
Weekly  6,653  7,264  7,806  8,417  8,958 
Monthly  5,659  6,767  8,303  9,411  10,946 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week down 27.3%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 7.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week down 25.6%   The trend may continue. 
 3 months down 5.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week down 26.9%   The trend may continue. 
 2 months down 14.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
82Dead-cat bounce
17Pipe top
17Double Top, Adam and Adam
17Vertical move down
11Double Top, Adam and Eve
11Triple top
8Double Top, Eve and Eve
7Double Top, Eve and Adam
5Head-and-shoulders top
4Triangle, symmetrical

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Short ETFs1. Healthcare Information
2. Healthcare Information2. Semiconductor
3. Medical Services3. Medical Services
4. Biotechnology4. Homebuilding
5. Computers and Peripherals5. Biotechnology

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/13/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 73 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 12.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is moving sideways (consolidating).

Excluding ETFs, there were 2 bullish chart patterns this week and 69 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALKDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Air Transport
AADead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/12/2020Aerospace/Defense
ALKSBroadening bottom      01/27/202003/11/2020Drug
AELDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Insurance (Life)
AIGDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
AMWDDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Building Materials
APADead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/11/2020Petroleum (Producing)
APOGDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Building Materials
AWIPipe top      02/24/202003/02/2020Building Materials
ASNADead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Apparel
AVADouble Top, Eve and Adam      02/19/202003/06/2020Electric Utility (West)
BECNDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Retail Building Supply
BIGDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Retail Store
BOOTDead-cat bounce      03/09/202003/09/2020Shoe
BLDRDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Retail Building Supply
CLSDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Electronics
CNPDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Electric Utility (Central)
CLNEDead-cat bounce      03/10/202003/12/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
CONNDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Retail (Special Lines)
COPDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/09/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
DVNDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/09/2020Natural Gas (Diversified)
DODead-cat bounce      03/04/202003/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
DRQDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
BOOMDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Metal Fabricating
EMNDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Chemical (Diversified)
EOGDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)
EPAMDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020IT Services
FFGDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Insurance (Life)
FLSDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Machinery
GPRODead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Electronics
GFFDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Building Materials
GESDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Apparel
HHSDead-cat bounce      03/09/202003/09/2020Advertising
HPDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Petroleum (Producing)
DHIDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Homebuilding
HOVDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/12/2020Homebuilding
IIINDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Building Materials
TILEDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Furn/Home Furnishings
IPIDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/12/2020Chemical (Diversified)
NVTADead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Medical Services
JCPDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Retail Store
KELYADead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Human Resources
LBBroadening wedge, descending      02/07/202003/11/2020Apparel
MDead-cat bounce      03/10/202003/12/2020Retail Store
MRODead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
MTRXDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
MDCDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Homebuilding
MURDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/11/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
NOVDead-cat bounce      03/04/202003/12/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NEDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/12/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
NBLDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/11/2020Petroleum (Producing)
JWNDead-cat bounce      03/10/202003/12/2020Retail Store
OXYDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Petroleum (Producing)
PDCOPipe top      02/24/202003/02/2020Medical Supplies
PTENDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/11/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
PCGDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Electric Utility (West)
REVDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Toiletries/Cosmetics
RESDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SLBDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
SXIDead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Diversified Co.
SUMDead-cat bounce      03/09/202003/09/2020Cement and Aggregates
TLRDDead-cat bounce      03/10/202003/12/2020Retail (Special Lines)
TFXDouble Top, Adam and Adam      03/03/202003/10/2020Diversified Co.
TEVADead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Drug
RIGDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/09/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
TZOODead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Internet
SLCADead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Metals and Mining (Div.)
UNMDead-cat bounce      03/12/202003/12/2020Insurance (Diversified)
VALDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/11/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
VLODead-cat bounce      03/11/202003/12/2020Petroleum (Integrated)
WLKDead-cat bounce      03/09/202003/09/2020Chemical (Basic)
WEXDead-cat bounce      03/06/202003/09/2020Information Services
WMBDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/09/2020Natural Gas (Distributor)

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/05/2020 and 03/12/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)
Industry: Air Transport
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 507 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $35.08
1 Month avg volatility: $2.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.30 or 40.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -48.22%
Volume: 4,726,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,966,126 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Alcoa (AA)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense
Industry RS rank: 49 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 568 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $7.51
1 Month avg volatility: $0.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.99 or 33.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -65.09%
Volume: 12,652,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,976,214 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Alkermes (ALKS)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 425 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $14.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.23. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.77 or 20.7% below the close.
Change YTD: -27.25%
Volume: 2,314,300 shares. 3 month avg: 949,792 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 01/27/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is upward 53% of the time.
Average rise: 27%.
Break-even failure rate: 10%.
Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

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American Equity Investment Life Holding (AEL)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 372 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $16.66
1 Month avg volatility: $1.61. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.33 or 40.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -44.34%
Volume: 1,150,500 shares. 3 month avg: 625,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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American International Group (AIG)
Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 547 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $25.67
1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.93 or 32.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -49.99%
Volume: 13,593,900 shares. 3 month avg: 5,185,998 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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American Woodmark Corp (AMWD)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 452 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $53.34
1 Month avg volatility: $4.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.39 or 39.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -48.96%
Volume: 194,300 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Apache Corp. (APA)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 571 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $7.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.46 or 47.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -69.68%
Volume: 19,753,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Apogee Enterprises (APOG)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 553 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $17.72
1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.35 or 37.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -45.48%
Volume: 512,100 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Armstrong World Industries (AWI)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 174 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $81.55
1 Month avg volatility: $4.49. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $100.97 or 23.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -13.22%
Volume: 918,100 shares. 3 month avg: 508,948 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/24/2020 to 03/02/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Ascena Retail Group (ASNA)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 584 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $1.48
1 Month avg volatility: $0.55. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.83 or 91.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -80.69%
Volume: 450,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,861,685 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Avista (AVA)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 124 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $42.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.31 or 16.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -11.96%
Volume: 879,600 shares. 3 month avg: 396,820 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/19/2020 to 03/06/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 13%.
Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Beacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 535 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $16.95
1 Month avg volatility: $1.68. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.03 or 35.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.00%
Volume: 1,469,300 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 503 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $13.08
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.94 or 44.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -54.46%
Volume: 2,540,400 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)
Industry: Shoe
Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 506 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $19.00
1 Month avg volatility: $1.70. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.77 or 19.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -57.33%
Volume: 1,846,200 shares. 3 month avg: 434,749 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR)
Industry: Retail Building Supply
Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 311 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $14.76
1 Month avg volatility: $1.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.99 or 42.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -41.91%
Volume: 2,978,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Celestica Inc (CLS)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 497 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $4.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.23 or 30.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.39%
Volume: 794,200 shares. 3 month avg: 557,234 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Industry: Electric Utility (Central)
Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 534 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $14.87
1 Month avg volatility: $1.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.51 or 24.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -45.47%
Volume: 13,125,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,845,400 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 532 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $1.08
1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.70 or 57.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -53.85%
Volume: 3,129,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/10/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Conns Inc (CONN)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 586 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $4.55
1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.23 or 36.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -63.28%
Volume: 1,508,000 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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ConocoPhillips (COP)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 530 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $28.20
1 Month avg volatility: $2.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $35.70 or 26.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.64%
Volume: 16,255,200 shares. 3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Devon Energy Corp. (DVN)
Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 575 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $7.27
1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.26 or 41.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -72.01%
Volume: 14,463,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,704,349 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Diamond Offshore (DO)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 585 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $1.42
1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.29 or 61.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -80.25%
Volume: 4,524,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/04/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 520 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $26.74
1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $34.51 or 29.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.00%
Volume: 677,100 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Dynamic Materials (BOOM)
Industry: Metal Fabricating
Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 546 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $21.91
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.37 or 29.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.25%
Volume: 394,900 shares. 3 month avg: 60,208 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 480 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $42.41
1 Month avg volatility: $2.77. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.65 or 17.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -46.49%
Volume: 4,114,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,209,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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EOG Resources (EOG)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 558 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $32.50
1 Month avg volatility: $3.37. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.68 or 31.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -61.20%
Volume: 12,355,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,618,102 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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EPAM Systems Inc (EPAM)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 115 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $163.44
1 Month avg volatility: $9.60. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $207.95 or 27.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -22.96%
Volume: 835,300 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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FBL Financial Group (FFG)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 516 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $31.01
1 Month avg volatility: $2.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $42.37 or 36.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.38%
Volume: 47,600 shares. 3 month avg: 24,305 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS)
Industry: Machinery
Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 509 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $25.56
1 Month avg volatility: $1.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $30.75 or 20.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -48.64%
Volume: 2,869,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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GoPro (GPRO)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 474 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $2.69
1 Month avg volatility: $0.23. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.47 or 29.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -38.02%
Volume: 9,774,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Griffon Corp (GFF)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 485 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $10.74
1 Month avg volatility: $0.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.10 or 40.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.17%
Volume: 327,700 shares. 3 month avg: 83,558 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Guess Inc. (GES)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 549 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $8.50
1 Month avg volatility: $1.04. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.36 or 45.4% above the close.
Change YTD: -62.02%
Volume: 2,635,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Harte-Hanks Inc (HHS)
Industry: Advertising
Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 411 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $2.54
1 Month avg volatility: $0.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.76 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -29.05%
Volume: 1,300 shares. 3 month avg: 98,162 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 561 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $15.96
1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.76 or 42.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -64.87%
Volume: 4,023,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,165 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Horton, D.R. Inc. (DHI)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 241 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $39.22
1 Month avg volatility: $2.00. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $45.89 or 17.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -25.65%
Volume: 8,155,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 397 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $10.21
1 Month avg volatility: $2.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.84 or 55.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.08%
Volume: 314,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Insteel Industries Inc (IIIN)
Industry: Building Materials
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 441 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $13.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.10 or 31.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -39.37%
Volume: 87,700 shares. 3 month avg: 163,711 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Interface, Inc. (TILE)
Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings
Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 396 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $9.03
1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.87 or 42.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -45.57%
Volume: 399,800 shares. 3 month avg: 457,515 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
Industry: Chemical (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 578 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $0.92
1 Month avg volatility: $0.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.32 or 43.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -66.04%
Volume: 1,395,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,190,495 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Invitae Corp (NVTA)
Industry: Medical Services
Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 488 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $11.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.63. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.77 or 49.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -26.35%
Volume: 6,039,300 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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JC Penney Company Inc (JCP)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 570 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $0.41
1 Month avg volatility: $0.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.53 or 30.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -63.38%
Volume: 12,990,700 shares. 3 month avg: 17,298,666 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Kelly Services A (KELYA)
Industry: Human Resources
Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 539 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $11.73
1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.94 or 35.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -48.05%
Volume: 519,900 shares. 3 month avg: 173,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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L Brands, Inc. (LB)
Industry: Apparel
Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 180 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $15.84
1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.15 or 17.0% below the close.
Change YTD: -12.58%
Volume: 9,718,500 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 02/07/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is upward 79% of the time.
Average rise: 33%.
Break-even failure rate: 6%.
Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

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Macys, Inc (M)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 556 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $7.38
1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.95 or 34.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.59%
Volume: 30,844,800 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/10/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Marathon Oil (MRO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 573 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $3.98
1 Month avg volatility: $0.58. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.37 or 34.9% above the close.
Change YTD: -70.69%
Volume: 51,840,900 shares. 3 month avg: 12,845,475 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 512 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $10.06
1 Month avg volatility: $0.76. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.57 or 25.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -56.03%
Volume: 314,900 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC)
Industry: Homebuilding
Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 391 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $26.94
1 Month avg volatility: $1.89. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.89 or 22.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -29.40%
Volume: 924,500 shares. 3 month avg: 498,709 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 574 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $6.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.13. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.16 or 42.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -76.04%
Volume: 10,909,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 563 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $8.70
1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.37 or 42.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -65.27%
Volume: 7,797,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,130,966 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/04/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Noble Corporation (NE)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 588 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $0.24
1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $0.44 or 82.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -80.33%
Volume: 5,426,300 shares. 3 month avg: 7,535,162 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Noble Energy Inc. (NBL)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 580 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $6.27
1 Month avg volatility: $1.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.53 or 52.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -74.76%
Volume: 18,151,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 25 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 482 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $19.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.18 or 31.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.43%
Volume: 7,969,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/10/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)
Industry: Petroleum (Producing)
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 579 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $11.89
1 Month avg volatility: $2.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.26 or 62.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -71.15%
Volume: 72,778,400 shares. 3 month avg: 4,088,786 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 11 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 29 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $19.52
1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.61 or 15.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -4.69%
Volume: 1,845,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,885,975 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 02/24/2020 to 03/02/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 20%.
Break-even failure rate: 11%.
Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

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Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 583 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $2.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.36 or 58.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -79.81%
Volume: 8,448,800 shares. 3 month avg: 3,925,269 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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PG and E (PCG)
Industry: Electric Utility (West)
Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 181 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $9.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $12.98 or 43.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -16.65%
Volume: 18,060,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Revlon Inc (REV)
Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics
Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 457 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $11.79
1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.82 or 42.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -44.96%
Volume: 132,400 shares. 3 month avg: 238,602 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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RPC Inc (RES)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 564 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $2.12
1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.78 or 31.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -59.54%
Volume: 2,049,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,275,503 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Schlumberger Limited (SLB)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 560 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $14.42
1 Month avg volatility: $1.44. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.57 or 35.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -64.13%
Volume: 47,421,200 shares. 3 month avg: 8,320,412 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Standex International Corp (SXI)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 501 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $41.73
1 Month avg volatility: $2.78. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.28 or 32.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -47.41%
Volume: 102,300 shares. 3 month avg: 37,109 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Summit Materials Inc (SUM)
Industry: Cement and Aggregates
Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 498 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $12.34
1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.69 or 27.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -48.37%
Volume: 1,534,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD)
Industry: Retail (Special Lines)
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 576 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $2.02
1 Month avg volatility: $0.30. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.75 or 36.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -51.21%
Volume: 2,715,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,195,355 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/10/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Teleflex Inc (TFX)
Industry: Diversified Co.
Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 128 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $297.71
1 Month avg volatility: $14.62. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $350.41 or 17.7% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.91%
Volume: 402,500 shares. 3 month avg: 269,822 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/03/2020 to 03/10/2020
Breakout is downward 100% of the time.
Average decline: 19%.
Break-even failure rate: 8%.
Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA)
Industry: Drug
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 63 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $7.80
1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.84 or 26.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -20.41%
Volume: 22,565,400 shares. 3 month avg: 26,334,894 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Transocean Inc. (RIG)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 582 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $1.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.17 or 61.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -80.52%
Volume: 40,860,400 shares. 3 month avg: 13,612,100 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO)
Industry: Internet
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 552 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $5.71
1 Month avg volatility: $0.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.54 or 67.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -46.64%
Volume: 405,000 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.
This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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U.S Silica Holdings Inc (SLCA)
Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)
Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 589 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $1.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.30 or 95.0% above the close.
Change YTD: -80.81%
Volume: 4,208,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Unum Group (UNM)
Industry: Insurance (Diversified)
Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 545 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $13.57
1 Month avg volatility: $1.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $18.92 or 39.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -53.46%
Volume: 4,793,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,168,134 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Valaris Plc (VAL)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 590 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $0.66
1 Month avg volatility: $0.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.68 or 154.5% above the close.
Change YTD: -89.94%
Volume: 16,280,300 shares. 3 month avg: 16,303,415 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/11/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Valero Energy (VLO)
Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)
Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 511 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $43.96
1 Month avg volatility: $3.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.39 or 32.8% above the close.
Change YTD: -53.06%
Volume: 14,576,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/11/2020 to 03/12/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Westlake Chemical Corp (WLK)
Industry: Chemical (Basic)
Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 541 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $31.94
1 Month avg volatility: $3.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $41.87 or 31.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -54.47%
Volume: 922,500 shares. 3 month avg: 812,517 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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WEX Inc (WEX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 34 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 486 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $115.86
1 Month avg volatility: $10.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $149.77 or 29.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -44.69%
Volume: 1,304,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/06/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Williams Companies Inc. (WMB)
Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)
Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 508 out of 590
3/12/20 close: $13.29
1 Month avg volatility: $0.95. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.38 or 23.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -43.97%
Volume: 22,712,600 shares. 3 month avg: 4,990,974 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/09/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Thursday 3/12/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Busted Triple Bottom

The index dropped by -4.7% or -392.2 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 1 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.8% on 1 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 100.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/332 or 56.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Bottoms 1, 2, 3 form a triple bottom which confirms as a valid chart pattern when the index closes above the horizontal red line, at A. That's the good news.

The bad news is the index didn't rise far. In fact, the trend reversed and the index closed below the bottom of the pattern, busting the upward breakout. That tells me the index is going lower tomorrow (Thursday).

Because this is intraday and because the news can and will send the markets spinning off into whatever direction they want, who knows that will actually happen. But I'm looking for a down day. The above probabilities, however, suggest a higher close.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,110.65    
 Monthly S1  7,531.35  420.70   
 Daily S2  7,664.38  133.03   
 Weekly S2  7,770.64  106.27   
 Daily S1  7,808.21  37.57   
 Low  7,850.95  42.74   
 Weekly S1  7,861.35  10.40   Yes! The Weekly S1 is close to the Low.
 Close  7,952.05  90.70   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  7,977.17  25.12   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  7,994.79  17.62   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,016.15  21.37   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,055.14  38.99   
 Open  8,136.25  81.11   
 Daily R1  8,138.62  2.37   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  8,181.36  42.74   
 Daily R2  8,325.20  143.84   
 Weekly Pivot  8,465.83  140.64   
 Weekly R1  8,556.54  90.70   
 Monthly Pivot  8,684.86  128.32   
 Monthly R1  9,105.56  420.70   
 Weekly R2  9,161.02  55.46   
 Monthly R2  10,259.07  1,098.05   

Wednesday 3/11/20. Indicators Still Bearish

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal is still in place. However, notice the indicator line at the bottom of the chart, circled.

It has ticked up. That upward move is not enough to change the bearish signal to neutral, though.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 66% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 52%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 77% on 03/09/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 30% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 25%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 33% on 03/09/2020.

Both lines continue lower from a week ago. They are following the indices down and up, when the indices bounce.

Even though both lines (red and blue) have bounced off their lows, only a sustained upward move will turn things around.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/10/20. Market Forecast Updated!

The index dropped by -7.8% or -2013.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 6.3% on 1 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 100.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/344 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I had a slider quiz/tutorial all set to go, but decided to update the year's forecast. The forecast remains the same, but the price action is updated. The chart on the following link looks different than that shown on Feb 25, (slides 2-4) but that's because the indices have dropped so much. It's the same chart only compressed.

Here's the link with the updated forecast/market information.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,145.97    
 Monthly S1  22,498.50  1,352.52   
 Daily S2  22,896.86  398.36   
 Daily S1  23,373.94  477.08   
 Weekly S2  23,517.61  143.67   
 Weekly S1  23,684.31  166.71   
 Low  23,706.07  21.76   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  23,851.02  144.95   
 Daily Pivot  24,183.15  332.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,197.43  14.28   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,349.21  151.78   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,501.00  151.78   
 Daily R1  24,660.23  159.23   
 Open  24,992.36  332.13   
 High  24,992.36  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  25,393.33  400.97   
 Daily R2  25,469.44  76.11   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  25,560.03  90.59   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  26,033.53  473.50   
 Weekly R2  27,269.05  1,235.51   
 Monthly R1  27,386.06  117.01   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  30,921.09  3,535.04   

Tuesday 3/10/20. Market Forecast Updated!

The index dropped by -7.8% or -2013.76 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 6.3% on 1 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 100.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/344 or 58.1% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

I had a slider quiz/tutorial all set to go, but decided to update the year's forecast. The forecast remains the same, but the price action is updated. The chart on the following link looks different than that shown on Feb 25, (slides 2-4) but that's because the indices have dropped so much. It's the same chart only compressed.

Here's the link with the updated forecast/market information.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  21,145.97    
 Monthly S1  22,498.50  1,352.52   
 Daily S2  22,896.86  398.36   
 Daily S1  23,373.94  477.08   
 Weekly S2  23,517.61  143.67   
 Weekly S1  23,684.31  166.71   
 Low  23,706.07  21.76   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Close  23,851.02  144.95   
 Daily Pivot  24,183.15  332.13   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  24,197.43  14.28   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  24,349.21  151.78   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  24,501.00  151.78   
 Daily R1  24,660.23  159.23   
 Open  24,992.36  332.13   
 High  24,992.36  0.00   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Weekly Pivot  25,393.33  400.97   
 Daily R2  25,469.44  76.11   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Weekly R1  25,560.03  90.59   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Daily R2.
 Monthly Pivot  26,033.53  473.50   
 Weekly R2  27,269.05  1,235.51   
 Monthly R1  27,386.06  117.01   Yes! The Monthly R1 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R2  30,921.09  3,535.04   

Monday 3/9/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

Probably the most important question on your mind now, is what happens next?

We know that the covid 19 virus is going to get worse in this country. People will die. People who won't die will get sick and stay home from their jobs. That means the economy will slow down.

Is that a guess? Yes, but the Federal reserve cut interest rates not by a quarter point, but by a half. That's a big move. So they know trouble is coming.

Will the world end? For some of us, especially older folks, the answer is yes (because they'll die from the virus). For the majority of us, we'll survive and the markets will recover.

They always recover.

Because this will be a short-term pain (we'll have a vaccine in a year to 18 months), my guess is the markets will bobble up and down for weeks to months. Expect huge point swings.

When the dust settles, the market will recover until the next version of the virus appears.

Let's look at the chart.

I drew a line, A, under the recent low. That line shows good support. But as we know, some of the shares holding up the index before have been traded and those still retaining their position will trade then if the index drops to A. That means it'll be easier for the index to punch through support and continue lower.

It's possible that the index will reach A and move sideways. I don't expect a swift return to old highs until the virus spreads and we see a recovery begin (that is, fewer people dying). Based on what we saw in China, that'll take about 2-3 months.

$ $ $

A big thanks to those of you who voted for my article, "The Best Chart Pattern Entry" (April 2019) in Technical analysis of stocks & commodities magazine 2020 Readers' Choice awards. It's always a surprise to see my name listed. They describe the award as, "We asked readers to vote for their favorite Stocks & Commodities article from the past year." The article placed second.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 1293.96 points.
Tuesday: Down 785.91 points.
Wednesday: Up 1173.45 points.
Thursday: Down 969.58 points.
Friday: Down 256.5 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 455.42 points or 1.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 8.25 points or 0.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 18.15 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     12.5% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     4.8% up from the low of 24,681.01 on 02/28/2020.
Nasdaq
     12.8% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     3.8% up from the low of 8,264.16 on 02/28/2020.
S&P 500
     12.4% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     4.1% up from the low of 2,855.84 on 02/28/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 03/06/2020, the CPI had:

79 bearish patterns,
5 bullish patterns,
246 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 6.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,928  25,396  25,695  26,164  26,463 
Weekly  24,189  25,027  26,065  26,903  27,940 
Monthly  21,817  23,841  26,705  28,729  31,592 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,869  2,921  2,953  3,005  3,038 
Weekly  2,768  2,870  3,004  3,106  3,239 
Monthly  2,536  2,754  3,074  3,292  3,612 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,284  8,430  8,521  8,667  8,758 
Weekly  7,979  8,277  8,674  8,972  9,369 
Monthly  7,319  7,947  8,893  9,521  10,467 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 1 week up 47.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 55.1%   Expect a random direction. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 1 week up 48.0%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 56.4%   Expect a random direction. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 1 week up 49.3%   Expect a random direction. 
 1 month up 48.8%   Expect a random direction. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
18Double Top, Adam and Adam
17Vertical move down
16Pipe top
16Dead-cat bounce
15Triple top
13Double Top, Adam and Eve
9Double Top, Eve and Eve
6Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
5Triangle, symmetrical
5Head-and-shoulders top

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Healthcare Information1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
3. Medical Services3. Homebuilding
4. Homebuilding4. Healthcare Information
5. Biotechnology5. Computers and Peripherals

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 3/6/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

Go to Table.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 12 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 2.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 1 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

 

Symbol Chart Pattern Bullish
Bearish
Start End Industry
ALRMBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      02/07/202003/05/2020Computer Software and Svcs
BIGDead-cat bounce      02/27/202002/28/2020Retail Store
CIENV bottoms      02/21/202003/05/2020Telecom. Equipment
CMTLDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/05/2020Telecom. Equipment
CYDead-cat bounce      03/05/202003/05/2020Semiconductor
EFXV bottoms      02/21/202003/04/2020Information Services
FDSV bottoms      02/25/202003/04/2020Information Services
GNWDouble Bottom, Eve and Adam      02/05/202002/28/2020Insurance (Life)
JKHYV bottoms      02/21/202003/04/2020IT Services
NBRDead-cat bounce      03/03/202003/05/2020Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
OMIDead-cat bounce      03/03/202003/05/2020Medical Supplies
ROGPipe bottom      02/18/202002/24/2020Electronics
VRTXBroadening top      01/09/202002/28/2020Biotechnology

 

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 02/27/2020 and 03/05/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Definitions
RS is relative strength (where 1 is best). For other definitions, see the glossary.
’Breakout is upward/downward 100% of the time’ means price breaks out up/down by definition, not by statistically measuring the rate.
All numbers assume a bull market and are based on the breakout direction that occurs most often.
For more information, consult my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Second Edition.
 
Alarm.com Holdings inc (ALRM)
Industry: Computer Software and Svcs
Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 347 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $46.06
1 Month avg volatility: $1.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $50.40 or 9.4% above the close.
Change YTD: 7.19%
Volume: 583,500 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 02/07/2020 to 03/05/2020
Breakout is downward 66% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 20%.
Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

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Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Industry: Retail Store
Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 540 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $16.61
1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.20 or 21.6% above the close.
Change YTD: -42.17%
Volume: 1,908,600 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 02/28/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 188 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $42.88
1 Month avg volatility: $1.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.36 or 10.5% below the close.
Change YTD: 0.45%
Volume: 5,827,600 shares. 3 month avg: 3,226,991 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/21/2020 to 03/05/2020

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Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
Industry: Telecom. Equipment
Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 437 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $23.51
1 Month avg volatility: $1.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $29.88 or 27.1% above the close.
Change YTD: -33.76%
Volume: 957,800 shares. 3 month avg: 255,535 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/05/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Industry: Semiconductor
WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.
Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 484 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $19.18
1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.83 or 24.3% above the close.
Change YTD: -17.79%
Volume: 47,251,700 shares. 3 month avg: 5,847,760 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 03/05/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Equifax Inc (EFX)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 137 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $158.25
1 Month avg volatility: $4.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $147.11 or 7.0% below the close.
Change YTD: 12.94%
Volume: 1,703,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,458,600 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/21/2020 to 03/04/2020

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FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)
Industry: Information Services
Industry RS rank: 31 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 157 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $288.85
1 Month avg volatility: $7.47. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $270.62 or 6.3% below the close.
Change YTD: 7.66%
Volume: 551,500 shares. 3 month avg: 411,949 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/25/2020 to 03/04/2020

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Genworth Financial Inc (GNW)
Industry: Insurance (Life)
Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 172 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $4.65
1 Month avg volatility: $0.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.20 or 9.6% below the close.
Change YTD: 5.68%
Volume: 9,431,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,022,160 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 02/05/2020 to 02/28/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 35%.
Break-even failure rate: 4%.
Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

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Jack Henry and Associates (JKHY)
Industry: IT Services
Industry RS rank: 15 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 91 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $164.99
1 Month avg volatility: $4.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $152.02 or 7.9% below the close.
Change YTD: 13.26%
Volume: 833,900 shares. 3 month avg: 329,005 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: V bottoms from 02/21/2020 to 03/04/2020

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Nabors Industries, Ltd. (NBR)
Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 543 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $1.34
1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.91 or 42.2% above the close.
Change YTD: -53.47%
Volume: 19,772,700 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/03/2020 to 03/05/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Owens and Minor Inc (OMI)
Industry: Medical Supplies
Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 386 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $5.93
1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.05 or 18.9% above the close.
Change YTD: 14.70%
Volume: 3,186,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,318,423 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.
 
Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 03/03/2020 to 03/05/2020
Breakout is downward 67% of the time.
Average decline: 18%.

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Rogers Corp (ROG)
Industry: Electronics
Industry RS rank: 14 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 442 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $116.87
1 Month avg volatility: $4.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $105.94 or 9.4% below the close.
Change YTD: -6.30%
Volume: 238,800 shares. 3 month avg: 155,332 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.
 
Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 02/18/2020 to 02/24/2020
Breakout is upward 100% of the time.
Average rise: 45%.
Break-even failure rate: 5%.
Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Industry: Biotechnology
Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58
Stock RS rank: 25 out of 590
3/5/20 close: $237.31
1 Month avg volatility: $7.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $257.61 or 8.6% above the close.
Change YTD: 8.39%
Volume: 1,512,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,548,174 shares.
Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.
 
Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 01/09/2020 to 02/28/2020
Breakout is downward 50% of the time.
Average decline: 15%.
Break-even failure rate: 18%.
Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.
Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

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Thursday 3/5/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 3.8% or 334 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 3 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 1.4% on 2 occasions.
     Average loss was -2.6% on 1 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 186/331 or 56.2% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 54/106 or 50.9% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Despite today's strong move higher, the CPI (chart pattern indicator) remains at 0%. That's as low as it can go, so it wasn't impressed by today's move.

As to the Nasdaq, the chart shows a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern at ABC. The red line is the neckline. A close below the line signals a valid chart pattern in this case. It appears the index cooperated by dropping to meet the measure rule target (the distance from the peak at the head, B, to the neckline directly below) subtracted from the breakout (where the index crosses the red line).

I'm struck by the two green lines, how the uptrend is nearly parallel on both lines. I don't know what it means, but I like the symmetry.

The index is near or at overhead resistance (9000) but it's really useless to say the index will drop or continue rising. Intraday, overnight, the markets will gap open higher or lower and seem to do what they feel instead of obeying technical analysis guidelines.

The above guidelines say the markets will close higher on Thursday, but it's based on just 3 samples. Uncharted territory, really.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  7,466.00    
 Weekly S2  7,809.66  343.66   
 Monthly S1  8,242.04  432.39   
 Weekly S1  8,413.87  171.83   
 Daily S2  8,669.60  255.73   
 Low  8,757.66  88.06   
 Open  8,834.10  76.44   
 Daily S1  8,843.85  9.75   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Open.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  8,857.86  14.01   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 Weekly Pivot  8,868.38  10.52   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  8,888.81  20.43   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  8,919.76  30.95   
 Daily Pivot  8,931.90  12.14   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  9,018.09  86.19   
 High  9,019.96  1.87   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  9,040.21  20.25   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the High.
 Daily R1  9,106.15  65.94   
 Daily R2  9,194.20  88.06   
 Weekly R1  9,472.59  278.39   
 Monthly R1  9,816.25  343.66   
 Weekly R2  9,927.10  110.84   
 Monthly R2  10,614.42  687.32   

Wednesday 3/4/20. A Bottom in Place?

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The vertical red bar on the far right of the chart says that the indicator is still bearish.

If you look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart, you'll see it's at or very close to 0. I can't remember it being that low for so long. Of course, there's nowhere to go but up.

That's my feeling. I'm bullish. I think the index may drop to the low of A. That would form an unconfirmed double bottom, with the index finding a bottom at A. We might slide sideways as more bad news arrives about the spread of covid 19. Of course, the index could continue lower or it could reach the price of A and bounce higher. Much higher. So there's lots of uncertainty. One factor is almost a lock and that's volatility. If you're a day trader, you'll be in heaven (or hell, if you guess wrong). For others who hold longer, just sit tight an a trend will emerge with huge swings up and down.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 52% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 40%.
The fewest was 21% on 01/16/2020.
And the most was 54% on 02/28/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 489 stocks in my database are down an average of 25% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 21%.
The peak was 11% on 01/16/2020.
And the bottom was 25% on 02/28/2020.

Both lines suffered massive drops over the past week. Even the big rally sucked the lines up but they tumbled again today (Tuesday).

As I've mentioned often enough, these two lines (the red and blue) really follow how the indices move. If the index rises, so does the two lines, with the red more sensitive of the two colors.

It is interesting that the bearish divergence shown on the chart as three green lines, correctly predicted the drop well ahead of time. Of course, divergence is a weak signal because the index and the two colored lines can diverge for months and nothing happens in the index. It's gratifying when it does work, though.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 3/3/20. Slider Tutorial: Up Trendlines!

The index climbed by 5.1% or 1293.96 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 3 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 2.7% on 2 occasions.
     Average loss was -1.0% on 1 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 66.7% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 200/343 or 58.3% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 39/78 or 50.0% of the time.

$ $ $

As good as today's (Monday's) rally was, the CPI (chart pattern indicator, see the grid at page top) is still bearish (that's the latest bull or bear signal. The indicator is actually neutral). The needle moved, but not much. So I'm concerned about another drop today. I'm just saying...

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring up trendlines. It's not as exciting as losing or gaining the price of your house in one session, but it's better than watching political commercials.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2020 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  22,096.74    
 Weekly S2  22,873.83  777.09   
 Monthly S1  24,400.03  1,526.20   
 Weekly S1  24,788.58  388.55   
 Daily S2  24,952.94  164.36   
 Low  25,391.96  439.02   
 Open  25,590.51  198.55   
 Daily S1  25,828.13  237.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  25,893.99  65.86   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  26,049.06  155.08   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  26,204.14  155.08   
 Daily Pivot  26,267.15  63.01   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  26,595.75  328.60   
 Close  26,703.32  107.57   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  26,706.17  2.85   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  26,984.30  278.13   
 Daily R1  27,142.34  158.04   
 Daily R2  27,581.36  439.02   
 Weekly R1  28,510.50  929.14   
 Monthly R1  29,287.59  777.09   
 Weekly R2  30,317.67  1,030.08   
 Monthly R2  31,871.86  1,554.19   

Monday 3/2/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

I show the Dow industrials on the weekly scale, not the daily. I did this to show where the nearest support level is.

I drew the horizontal red line from the Dow's bottom spike, and to the left. That line is one of support, I think.

I'm going to stick my neck out and I'll be the first to say I've been wrong before, but I think we've put in a bottom in the Dow. Some of my stocks on Friday gained a bit. That's good news. It gives me hope that we'll rise from here.

Traders will begin to understand that the worst is over in China and they'll be able to restart their plants, pumping out goods to the US and worldwide. I may be premature, but that's what I see happening.

So I'm hopeful. Other than a guess, I don't see any signs of a turn. The index did stop at a support level.

Based on the chart, I would have expected the index to hit support earlier and turned, so it's well oversold in my view. Bad news will continue to dribble out, especially when the virus ramps up in the US, so we'll have to see if the turn will be V-shaped or just move horizontally in a bumpy up and down movement.

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A Brief Look Back

Picture of a flower from my garden.

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 1031.61 points.
Tuesday: Down 879.44 points.
Wednesday: Down 123.77 points.
Thursday: Down 1190.95 points.
Friday: Down 357.28 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 3583.05 points or 12.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 1009.22 points or 10.5%.
The S&P 500 index was down 383.53 points or 11.5%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     14.1% down from the high of 29,568.57 on 02/12/2020.
     3.0% up from the low of 24,681.01 on 02/28/2020.
Nasdaq
     12.9% down from the high of 9,838.37 on 02/19/2020.
     3.7% up from the low of 8,264.16 on 02/28/2020.
S&P 500
     12.9% down from the high of 3,393.52 on 02/19/2020.
     3.4% up from the low of 2,855.84 on 02/28/2020.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 02/28/2020, the CPI had:

6 bearish patterns,
0 bullish patterns,
11 patterns waiting for breakout.
The CPI signal is 0.0%, which is bearish (<= 35%).

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  24,382  24,896  25,195  25,709  26,008 
Weekly  22,443  23,926  26,164  27,648  29,886 
Monthly  21,665  23,537  26,553  28,425  31,441 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  2,819  2,887  2,923  2,991  3,027 
Weekly  2,619  2,787  3,023  3,191  3,427 
Monthly  2,530  2,742  3,068  3,280  3,606 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  8,147  8,357  8,474  8,685  8,802 
Weekly  7,659  8,113  8,718  9,172  9,777 
Monthly  7,316  7,942  8,890  9,516  10,464 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Consecutive Price Trends

Index Consecutive
Closes So Far 
% Comments 
 Dow industrials (^DJI) 2 weeks down 13.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 11.3%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 S & P 500 (^GSPC) 2 weeks down 11.7%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 2 months down 11.9%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) 2 weeks down 13.8%   Expect a reversal soon. 
 1 month down 26.2%   The trend may continue. 

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

 Found Chart Pattern Name
20Pipe bottom
18Double Top, Adam and Adam
16Pipe top
16Triple top
15Dead-cat bounce
14Double Bottom, Adam and Adam
11Double Top, Adam and Eve
10Double Top, Eve and Eve
8Broadening top
8Triangle, symmetrical

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

This WeekLast Week
1. Semiconductor1. Semiconductor
2. Semiconductor Cap Equip.2. Homebuilding
3. Homebuilding3. Computers and Peripherals
4. Healthcare Information4. Semiconductor Cap Equip.
5. Computers and Peripherals5. Shoe

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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