Bulkowski's 2020 Forecast Update

This is a chart of the chart pattern indicator taken on the evening of Friday, January 31. It shows a bearish signal intact (the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart). I believe the red bar first appeared the day after that shown. That anomaly is a function of how the indicator works, where past signals can change for up to a week. Regardless, it signaled a decline which then happened. The next three slides show how the markets have behaved so far this year.

This is the 2020 forecast for the Dow industrials, shown in red. So far, the prediction has done well, nearly matching the performance of the index. The indicator said the index would peak near A, and it was a bit soon. It remains to be seen if the index will make it all the way down to B. I doubt that it will. The index will struggle to recover but will end the year higher. For other forecast charts, scroll down to the "See Also" links at page bottom. The next slide discusses Nasdaq performance.

Here's the 2020 forecast for the Nasdaq. The index didn't rise as high as the indicator predicted, but today's price matches the indicator's. This forecast, in red, shows the tech-laden Nasdaq climbing for about 5 weeks and heading lower going into year end. The next slide shows the S&P 500 index performance.

Of the three market charts, this one missed the mark by the most. The indicator peaked sooner than the actual index and the index has yet to fall as far as predicted. The timing is off. If the prediction is correct, the market will during the spring and then move sideways to close out the year about where it started.