Bulkowski's February Forecast Update

This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator as of the close on Monday, 2/24/20. The indicator turned bearish after Friday's close but the downdraft was so severe on Monday, that it changed the signal start to a day earlier (as shown by the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart). Because the indicator can change for up to a week, this is typical behavior. Regardless, as of the close on Monday, the indicator is bearish. The next slide updates the forecast for the Dow industrials.

This forecast is scary, isn't it? The red line is the forecast for the coming year in the Dow industrials. The indicator started falling from mid January and bumped up in February. The Dow reflected this upward move later, in mid February. I drew a vertical green line to show where the forecast bottomed on the time scale. If the Dow continues lower, it'll probably bottom in about a week (because it's been lagging the indicator by a week). The next slide shows the Nasdaq's forecast.

This chart shows the forecast for the Nasdaq for 2020. The Nasdaq was tracking the forecast quite well until Monday's plunge. The next slide shows the forecast for the S&P 500.

The forecast for the S&P 500 composite is a mess. It would be better if the indicator were inverted. Then it would be an almost perfect fit except for the early decline resulting from Monday's move. That's it for the slides.