As of 12/02/2024
  Indus: 44,782 -128.65 -0.3%  
  Trans: 17,545 -73.73 -0.4%  
  Utils: 1,057 -21.90 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 19,404 +185.78 +1.0%  
  S&P 500: 6,047 +14.77 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.8%  
 +10.4%  
 +19.9%  
 +29.3%  
 +26.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/02/2024  
  Down arrow44,000 or 46,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow17,025 or 18,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow1,025 or 1,100 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,500 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow6,200 or 5,900 by 12/15/2024
As of 12/02/2024
  Indus: 44,782 -128.65 -0.3%  
  Trans: 17,545 -73.73 -0.4%  
  Utils: 1,057 -21.90 -2.0%  
  Nasdaq: 19,404 +185.78 +1.0%  
  S&P 500: 6,047 +14.77 +0.2%  
YTD
 +18.8%  
 +10.4%  
 +19.9%  
 +29.3%  
 +26.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 12/02/2024  
  Down arrow44,000 or 46,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow17,025 or 18,000 by 12/15/2024
  Down arrow1,025 or 1,100 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow20,000 or 18,500 by 12/15/2024
  Up arrow6,200 or 5,900 by 12/15/2024

Bulkowski On Fibonacci Extensions

My book, Trading BasicsTrading Basics: Evolution of a Trader book., discusses Fibonacci extensions beginning on page 84 in the section titled, "4. Myth: Fibonacci Extensions Work!".

If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.

-- Tom Bulkowski

$ $ $

Picture of Dupont (DD) on the daily scale.

What is a Fibonacci Extension?

I show a picture of DuPont (DD) on the daily scale to illustrate what a Fibonacci extension is.

An extension is just as it sounds, a lengthening of the AB move. If the AB move represents a 100% gain, then point D would be some multiple of that (even if the multiple is a fraction). Many will claim that the multiple will be a Fibonacci number, such as 38%, 50%, 62% or higher, such as 138%, 162% and so on. The retrace to C does not affect the extension computation. The extension measures from B to D.

In this example, the move from A to B is 3 points. The move from B to D is 6 points (all values are approximate for simplicity). Thus, the BD move is 200% of the AB move. It's a 200% extension.

How often is the extension a Fibonacci number? Another way of asking that is, can we say that if price approaches a Fibonacci multiple that it will be more likely to hit overhead resistance than any other multiple? The short answer is "no."

Top of page More

Fibonacci Extensions: Method

I programmed my computer to find the ABCD move in every stock I follow and some that I used to follow, or almost 1,500 securities. I only included data from stocks priced over $5 per share from the start of the bear market in March 2000 to April 27, 2011.

Using 21,626 samples from a bull market, I did a frequency distribution of the BD gain as a percentage of the AB move in 5% increments up to 180%. If the Fibonacci extension believers are correct, then I should see spikes at 35% to 40%, around 50%, 60% to 65%, and so on.

There were no spikes. Only at 100% do we see a marginal increase in the number of hits from 264 at 95% to 277 at 100% and 223 at 105%. Based on this test, using a Fibonacci extension will not see price hit overhead resistance there. I also extended the frequency distribution up to 350%, but the percentage trend didn't change. There is no overhead resistance prevalent at any Fibonacci extension number.

Fibonacci extensions work no better at predicting where price is going to turn than any other percentage.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top of page More

See Also

 

Support this site! Clicking any of the books (below) takes you to Amazon.com If you buy ANYTHING while there, they pay for the referral.
Legal notice for paid links: "As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."

My Stock Market Books
My Novels

Copyright © 2005-2024 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.
Some pattern names are registered trademarks of their respective owners.
Home Advertise Contact Privacy/Disclaimer

If it's worth doing, then it's worth overdoing.Smiley