As of 11/21/2024
Indus: 43,870 +461.88 +1.1%
Trans: 17,172 +169.53 +1.0%
Utils: 1,076 +20.58 +2.0%
Nasdaq: 18,972 +6.28 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,949 +31.60 +0.5%
|
YTD
+16.4%
+8.0%
+22.0%
+26.4%
+24.7%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/21/2024
Indus: 43,870 +461.88 +1.1%
Trans: 17,172 +169.53 +1.0%
Utils: 1,076 +20.58 +2.0%
Nasdaq: 18,972 +6.28 +0.0%
S&P 500: 5,949 +31.60 +0.5%
|
YTD
+16.4%
+8.0%
+22.0%
+26.4%
+24.7%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Released 10/31/2023.
Below is the updated forecast for 2023 as of the close on October 31, 2023. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI turned green today with a reading of 68.4 out of 100. That's just above the 65 trigger for a buy. Keep in mind that the indicator can change for up to a week, so this green buy signal might disappear if the markets make a big move down.
This is a chart of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.
The Dow has not performed up to expectations, which I show as the red line. Predicted close for the year is 39,629 with the current close at 33,053. That's about a 20% gap which will make a nice run up if it's true. And that means it's unlikely.
This is the Nasdaq on the daily chart.
The Nasdaq is close to being on target so far. Current close is 12,851 with a target of 13,684. It has a hill to climb but not nearly as much as the Dow.
Here's the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.
The index exceeded the closing target mid year at 4,607 with a predicted close of 4,584 and current close of 4,194. The index has to climb about 10% in two months. Easy peasy.
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