As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
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YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
|
 46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 |
As of 11/22/2024
Indus: 44,297 +426.16 +1.0%
Trans: 17,367 +194.86 +1.1%
Utils: 1,067 -8.74 -0.8%
Nasdaq: 19,004 +31.23 +0.2%
S&P 500: 5,969 +20.63 +0.3%
|
YTD
+17.5%
+9.2%
+21.0%
+26.6%
+25.1%
| |
|
46,000 or 43,000 by 12/01/202418,000 or 16,600 by 12/01/20241,200 or 1,000 by 12/01/202420,000 or 18,400 by 12/01/20246,100 or 5,800 by 12/01/2024 | ||
Released 11/30/2020.
Below is the updated forecast for 2020 as of November 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
The CPI is at 37.9, just above the bearish threshold of 35. Another down day might trigger a tentative bearish signal (tentative because it could change for up to a week).
With the index moving sideways, it looks likely that a retrace is going to happen.
The index is just above the predicted year end value of 28,839 year. It closed today at 29,639, so it has the next month to lose less than 3%.
The prediction has been off almost from the start. As the chart shows, and if you page through the other slides, the Nasdaq this year has been the big winner, not the biggest loser.
It's still possible for the index to tumble if the market becomes worried about Covid killing everyone.
If you were to invert the prediction, it would be closer to reality.
The prediction is flat for the SPX this year. As you can see, the index is well above the prediction.
If the prediction is correct for the rest of the year, look for the index to move higher, especially during the next 2 weeks.
I find that hard to believe. I still think bad Covid news will weigh down the market.
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