As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Thursday 4/30/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I highlighted two chart patterns which appeared in the last few days.

The first is a down-sloping channel which appeared on Thursday and Friday. The more recent pattern is a broadening bottom.

Both broke out upward and posted nice gains.

It still looks like we're about to retrace some of the gains, perhaps when the jobs report comes out. I'd like to buy the dip.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 4/29/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The last signal remains bullish as the vertical green bar indicates.

However, let's look at the price action.

The two red lines: The CPI line shows a lower peak even as the index shows a higher peak. That's bearish divergence.

What's that mean? The index will follow the CPI line downward. That sounds like a fact, but it's more of a suggestion. Divergence can last for months and when it does fulfill, the index might not drop much.

This is a nod to Christina who sent me charts shows rising wedges in the indices. This is a small one, shown here as the two converging lines drawn in red and blue.

Breakouts from rising wedges are downward 60% of the time.

So this chart is bearish using two indicators. What's the next chart say?

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both the red and blue lines show improvement from the snapshot taken a week ago. Of course, these lines just follow the markets as they move.

From the March low, the red and blue lines have been trending higher.

Looking at this chart, I don't see anything bearish except that the narrow daily high-low range on the index has me concerned. Periods of high volatility follow periods of low volatility, so I expect to see fireworks soon. With price struggling to continue higher today (Tuesday), I think it's reversal time.

Combined with the prior chart, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. (At least for one day).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 4/28/20. Slider Tutorial: Consecutive Closes

$ $ $

I show a another slider tutorial featuring the consecutive closes. When you click the arrow button to show another slide, it may not look like the slide has changed but the captions below the chart will change. Look at the circles below the chart for another clue. It might help.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 4/27/20. Market Monday: Look Out Below!

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow transports on the daily scale.

The index, with such a high-low range (log scale), looks as if it moved horizontally since late October (horizontal red line). Then it plunged during the days of Covid-19. That pattern forms a diving board pattern.

The neat thing about diving boards is you have a clear target to aim for. In other words, if price was trending horizontally, forming a "normal" price for the index, there's a good chance the index will return to "normal."

Of course, reaching the target could take months or maybe a year (or longer), and the ride back to overhead resistance will be a bumpy one, as we've seen.

The index has also formed a diamond top. I show that pattern in green.

You might also view this as the start of a down-sloping channel because the diamond is pushed to one side. If the slide downward continues, then yes, the pattern will form a channel and not a lazy diamond.

What does all of this mean?

Price was trending upward in the week leading to the start of the diamond but there's no guarantee that it'll breakout upward when leaving the diamond.

New research says the breakout is upward 40% of the time in a bear market and 46% of the time in a bull market, but that's for individual stocks.

I suppose if you shorten the bottom up-sloping green line (which I've drawn as a yellowish brown line), it forms a better looking diamond. It means we've already seen a downward breakout from it. Hmm. The index has now pulled back to the breakout price and there's a 65% chance that the index will continue dropping. Again, those numbers are from the latest research.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/24/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 4/24/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 27 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 588 stocks searched, or 4.6%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 14 bullish chart patterns this week and 7 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/16/2020 and 04/23/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 207 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $19.41

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.91 or 12.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.26%

Volume: 533,500 shares. 3 month avg: 530,657 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 563 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $7.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.41 or 29.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -66.11%

Volume: 20,698,300 shares. 3 month avg: 8,355,648 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 04/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 475 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $60.97

1 Month avg volatility: $5.06. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $74.04 or 21.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -44.40%

Volume: 502,100 shares. 3 month avg: 346,660 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 25 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $90.04

1 Month avg volatility: $2.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $84.22 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.24%

Volume: 190,100 shares. 3 month avg: 173,640 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 536 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $10.50

1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.83 or 25.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -58.97%

Volume: 38,511,000 shares. 3 month avg: 3,367,409 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 503 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $33.99

1 Month avg volatility: $1.94. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $39.54 or 16.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -42.82%

Volume: 1,127,700 shares. 3 month avg: 808,385 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 423 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $2.38

1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.72 or 27.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.54%

Volume: 240,300 shares. 3 month avg: 99,982 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 457 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $13.96

1 Month avg volatility: $1.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.38 or 18.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.06%

Volume: 717,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

4/23/20 close: $23,515.26

1 Month avg volatility: $695.91. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $25,277.18 or 7.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -17.60%

Volume: 393,565,200 shares. 3 month avg: 508,364,997 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 413 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $32.86

1 Month avg volatility: $2.92. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.00 or 23.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.95%

Volume: 447,800 shares. 3 month avg: 557,835 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/20/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: E-Commerce

Industry RS rank: 16 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 461 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $2.64

1 Month avg volatility: $0.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.11 or 20.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -43.83%

Volume: 408,200 shares. 3 month avg: 656,929 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/20/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 390 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $177.09

1 Month avg volatility: $10.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $201.89 or 14.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -36.03%

Volume: 340,000 shares. 3 month avg: 566,686 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 239 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $6.82

1 Month avg volatility: $0.60. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.07 or 25.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -24.64%

Volume: 800,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/27/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 339 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $7.81

1 Month avg volatility: $0.54. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.21 or 18.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -40.47%

Volume: 21,008,000 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/08/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 313 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $134.68

1 Month avg volatility: $6.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $150.63 or 11.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -23.91%

Volume: 2,786,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,744,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 497 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $40.54

1 Month avg volatility: $4.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $31.57 or 22.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -44.24%

Volume: 178,700 shares. 3 month avg: 72,294 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2020 to 04/22/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 248 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $39.21

1 Month avg volatility: $2.32. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $44.88 or 14.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.89%

Volume: 1,238,500 shares. 3 month avg: 658,995 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 04/17/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Pullbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 270 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $94.90

1 Month avg volatility: $4.12. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $104.89 or 10.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -20.76%

Volume: 4,094,700 shares. 3 month avg: 6,401,252 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 37 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $25.63

1 Month avg volatility: $1.40. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $28.52 or 11.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -3.65%

Volume: 348,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 569 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $4.89

1 Month avg volatility: $0.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $6.40 or 30.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -71.24%

Volume: 33,517,800 shares. 3 month avg: 14,056,392 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 340 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $47.42

1 Month avg volatility: $2.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $38.29 or 19.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.24%

Volume: 278,000 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 533 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $9.17

1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.66 or 27.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -65.78%

Volume: 5,969,600 shares. 3 month avg: 2,218,335 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/23/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 564 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $2.89

1 Month avg volatility: $0.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.44 or 50.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -72.48%

Volume: 12,454,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,925,269 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 03/11/2020 to 04/20/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

4/23/20 close: $2,797.80

1 Month avg volatility: $76.36. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,997.61 or 7.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.40%

Volume: 2,919,383,700 shares. 3 month avg: 3,198,800,148 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/14/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 8 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $3.06

1 Month avg volatility: $0.27. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.43 or 20.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 26.45%

Volume: 18,177,200 shares. 3 month avg: 16,683,949 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/09/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 469 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $54.35

1 Month avg volatility: $3.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.63 or 12.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.46%

Volume: 1,656,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,795,366 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 04/23/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 402 out of 583

4/23/20 close: $50.15

1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $57.30 or 14.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -27.42%

Volume: 988,400 shares. 3 month avg: 444,512 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/06/2020 to 04/13/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Thursday 4/23/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The first thing that caught my eye was the measured move down chart pattern. I show the outline of it in red but you can see how price followed the same contour (to the right of the red line).

Very pretty!

One of the things I like about measured moves is price often returns to the corrective phase. That's the retrace you see in the middle of the pattern. And you can see that the index opened on Wednesday right in the corrective phase. Clockwork.

See the above link for more details.

Today's move followed the blue trendline until the very end. If you look closely, you can see price dropping right at the end of the day.

My guess is it's a fake out. The market will gap open tomorrow (Thursday) and do what it wants regardless of how price moved at the end of today.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 4/22/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

It finally happened: The CPI indicator turned bearish. That's shown on the chart with the vertical red line. According to the chart, the signal happened yesterday (Monday), but that's not true. Yesterday the indicator was still bullish. That's the way the indicator works and why it's not a good trading vehicle. It can change what happened before for up to a week.

The question to ask now is, will the bearish signal last?

Today's (Tuesday's) reading is 0, meaning the indicator has dropped to the lowest it can go. That tells me it's going to take a big move up to pull it out of the red. If that doesn't happen for 3 days, then there's a good chance the signal will stay. After 7 days, it's guaranteed to stick. Between now and seven, the signal could disappear.

I've been expecting the markets to drop on bad earnings, but not on oil falling. That's what appears to have the markets rattled now.

This market is one surprise after another and it's hard to get a handle on it.

Let's check what the next chart says.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines have deteriorated from a week ago, but they move in concert with the index.

There's not much more to say. The red line is the more sensitive of the two. It hit its low along with the market in mid March and has recovered since then (until Monday).

So there you have it. The CPI has signaled a possible downturn in the markets. These two lines are also turning lower. That's not a good sign. Maybe what we'll see is instead of the markets recovering, they just stay in a trading range, near the current low, for a year (probably longer) until the Covid pandemic goes away. Even if we get a vaccine tomorrow, you can't give it to 325 million people in a week or a month.

So recovery is going to take a long time. Some will party as if there's no tomorrow and for some of them, they'll be right.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 4/21/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the extended V-tops chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 4/20/20. Market Monday: Recovery

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show a chart of the Dow utility index on the daily scale, starting from the beginning of this year. I wanted to highlight how the indices have recovered.

The horizontal red line shows the close of last year. The scale is logarithmic, so objects may seem closer than they really are.

Anyway, you can see how much the index has rebounded and how much we have yet to go. The utilities are down 6.3% for the year. The Nasdaq is even closer, off just 3.6%. The S&P 500 is off 11% and the Dow industrials are down 15.1%.

I show a head-and-shoulders bottom with the left shoulder (LS), head (guess), and right shoulder (RS) conveniently labeled.

The pattern confirmed as valid when the index closed above the green line. That was the buy signal, but it comes late in the recovery.

Of course utility stocks dropped along with the market but did not cut their dividends (at least so far as I know) like they did in 2008. That means yields have been tasty when the stock's bottomed.

Now many of them have recovered or are on their way to recovery.

What's the future look like? Hard to tell. The markets are ignoring bad news, which is a sign of recovery. However corporate earnings season is just starting and this quarter will be difficult but the coming quarters will be even worse, I think. So individual stocks will be hammered. That may well send the indices skittering lower, too.

I know that some stocks are still off by 50% or more from their highs of last year, so bargains abound. Companies which miss earnings will drop, allowing you to buy them at a price better than what you're seeing now. All you need is the cash and courage to buy.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/17/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 4/17/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 15 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 592 stocks searched, or 2.5%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 11 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/09/2020 and 04/16/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 506 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $9.02

1 Month avg volatility: $1.17. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.26 or 30.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -46.63%

Volume: 467,900 shares. 3 month avg: 533,922 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/20/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 251 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $8.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.53 or 21.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -16.18%

Volume: 295,700 shares. 3 month avg: 348,746 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 256 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $18.68

1 Month avg volatility: $1.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $14.86 or 20.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.96%

Volume: 1,511,300 shares. 3 month avg: 984,457 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/16/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 206 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $139.26

1 Month avg volatility: $10.56. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $115.01 or 17.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.53%

Volume: 258,100 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 583 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $0.89

1 Month avg volatility: $0.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2.23 or 151.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -87.63%

Volume: 23,773,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,441,012 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 04/16/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 23 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 20 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $12.81

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.16 or 20.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.52%

Volume: 9,167,900 shares. 3 month avg: 3,960,946 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 02/27/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 177 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $122.99

1 Month avg volatility: $7.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $137.61 or 11.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -11.58%

Volume: 5,082,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,473,917 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 03/25/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 38 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $76.54

1 Month avg volatility: $4.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $85.36 or 11.5% above the close.

Change YTD: 17.79%

Volume: 11,186,900 shares. 3 month avg: 8,272,228 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 02/24/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 554 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $39.51

1 Month avg volatility: $3.97. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.83 or 22.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -54.08%

Volume: 459,600 shares. 3 month avg: 131,942 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/13/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/12/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 438 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $10.10

1 Month avg volatility: $1.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.47 or 26.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -37.15%

Volume: 464,000 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 04/15/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 495 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $23.40

1 Month avg volatility: $2.08. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.42 or 21.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -42.90%

Volume: 637,000 shares. 3 month avg: 417,486 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 300 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $30.66

1 Month avg volatility: $3.36. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.94 or 25.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.45%

Volume: 375,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag continuation pattern from 04/09/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 23%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 43% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 17 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $11.13

1 Month avg volatility: $1.02. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.96 or 19.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.39%

Volume: 5,488,300 shares. 3 month avg: 5,870,049 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 370 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $16.59

1 Month avg volatility: $1.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.64 or 17.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.06%

Volume: 10,485,300 shares. 3 month avg: 4,990,974 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 04/16/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 397 out of 587

4/16/20 close: $48.60

1 Month avg volatility: $4.10. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $39.70 or 18.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.82%

Volume: 1,423,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,925,938 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/16/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Thursday 4/16/20. Intraday Nasdaq: Lower?

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index has followed a multi-day trendline higher, as the red up-sloping line shows.

It might be hard to see but at the upper end of that trendline, the index has pierced it (going down). That's usually not a big deal, especially on the intraday charts when the opening bell can shove price gapping higher or lower.

So I'm going to take a guess here.

Using the measure rule for trendlines, I drew a vertical green line from late in Tuesday's session to the trendline directly below (A). If the rule works, I expect the index to drop following the depth of the green line at B.

So look for the Nasdaq to drop again on Thursday, but that's a guess. The pre-market trading will give a hint to the day's session, at least for the first few minutes...

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 4/15/20. Indicators: Bullish!

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator (CPI) turned bullish in late March as the vertical green bar on the far right of the chart shows.

And the market responded. It's been upward since then, well, not exactly. There was a significant dip in April but that didn't turn the indicator bearish.

The current read for the CPI is 100, which is the maximum.

My only concern is the rising wedge pattern shown by the up-sloping and converging trendlines. Rising wedges often breakout downward.

What? Me worry?

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

The lines are synchronized. All of them are trending higher. The hint of bearish divergence shown last week someone took an iron to and smoothed out the wrinkles. It's gone, replaced by a continued bullish recovery.

The above numbers show the improvement from a week ago, too.

So almost everything looks peachy for a continued advance. And that means the index is about to drop. I keep warning: Earnings are coming! Earnings are coming!

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 4/14/20. Slider Quiz!

$ $ $

I show a another slider quiz featuring the V top chart pattern.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 4/13/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

I swapped the direction of Tom's Targets (grid at page top) because it's obvious the indices are recovering. Even though I expect earnings reports to send them lower, it's hard to fight the tape, as they say.

Another factor is that the market is ignoring bad news (Bad jobs report and the market goes up but the FED might have had something to do with it). Ignoring bad news is a sure sign it's put in a bottom.

So, until earnings begin to pull the markets back down, I have the targets pointing up. And that might also be a clue that the markets are going to tumble, as a kind of contrary indicator. That is, when Tom says the markets will rise, they'll drop. If he says they'll drop, then they'll rise.

Turning to the chart, I show two areas circled in red and blue. Those are resistance and support areas. It's where I put the mid April targets for the index (at least that's what I think I did.)

Have a good holiday weekend. Stay safe and healthy. Remember Covid-19 isn't over until we have a vaccine.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/10/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 1 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 3 days.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 4/10/20. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Today is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images at the bottom of the page. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

   So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site. I think this only works for US based shoppers.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

Thursday 4/9/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the red trendline under the bottom of prices for the last 3 days. The index follows the uptrend quite nicely. It did pierce the trendline once today (Wednesday or at the close Tuesday), but it recovered.

So I'm wondering how long with the uptrend last?

To answer that, I looked at the historical record. Voila!

The blue trendline, although not as clean as the red line, lasts for 2.5 days. It also has price poking though the bottom early on, during the first day of the rise.

So I'm thinking the uptrend will stop on Thursday and the index will drop ~250 points, to 7850. How do I know? I'm using the trendline measure rule which is essentially the largest distance from peak to trendline directly below. That happened at Tuesday's open.

The above probabilities say I'm wrong. Indeed, the indices are flashing a buy signal based on an ugly double bottom on the daily charts. If the Dow futures are down, then I'll wait for another day before I nibble (buy the dip).

Having written that, I still think the market will tumble on bad earnings reports. If not this quarter, then next quarter.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 4/8/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

This chart looks like the one I drew in the forecast update for 2020 a week ago. The lines are different, so let's talk about them.

The indicator at the bottom of this chart buried its head into the ceiling twice. The horizontal red line connects those two peaks.

Now look at the index. It shows two peaks moving upward. That's bearish divergence. It suggests weakness in the index, but it doesn't say when the index will tumble.

Let's look at the next chart to see what it says.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

This chart also shows divergence, except it's focused on the blue and red indicator lines. The red indicator line at the bottom of the chart sees a higher peak as denoted by the red up-sloping line.

The blue indicator line slopes downward (the red line shows the slope, but it's drawn a bit steeper than it really is. Sorry about that). The index agrees with the red indicator line. It slopes upward, too. Is it two against one?

I haven't see this before, where the two indicator lines diverge. The red indicator line is the more sensitive of the two lines and it shows convergence, not divergence with the index.

Combined with the prior chart, I'd say Wednesday is going to be a down day (based more on the trend reversal intraday in the index than anything else), but I also expect weakness when earnings reports come out. And here's a sobering thought. Covid-19 won't end until there's a vaccine in public distribution. And that could mean well into next year before that happens. Until then, we'll have to limit exposure.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 4/7/20. Slider Quiz!

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I show a another slider quiz featuring the V top chart pattern.

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In Texas, essential businesses (to remain open) are liquor stores, churches, and gun shops. Craft stores such as Michaels Stores and Hobby Lobby have tried to stay open, justifying that they were essential businesses because they sold supplies to make masks. Dallas sent one Hobby Lobby store a cease and desist order to close immediately.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 4/6/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the S&P 500 index on the monthly scale, which is unusual for me. Most times I stick to the daily scale except under certain conditions. This time, I wanted to put the recent movement into context, hence the monthly scale.

Many people have written in the past few months about the indices forming a broadening top. And that's what we see here.

I've outlined the pattern in red. It's not ideal. That's clear when the spike at B plunges through the bottom line and the top line shows the index missing it at A.

It's like the index used the missing momentum at A to plunge farther below the line at B. Hmm.

Regardless, what does a broadening top tell us about coming price movement? Answer: Not much.

If you switch to the weekly scale, you get a hint of a partial rise. It's even more pronounced on the daily chart.

A partial rise in a broadening top sees price climb upward for a time, then round over and drop to the bottom trendline. Then price just keeps on going down, staging an immediate downward breakout from the chart pattern.

A partial rise correctly predicts a downward breakout from a broadening top 52% of the time. That's random, so it's not much help. However, it does give us a warning.

Will the index breakout downward? I doubt it, but covid-19 has fooled me before so my guess is as good as yours.

I do expect the markets to tumble but we're a long way from puncturing that lower trendline. With current volatility, however, that's a day's move down!

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 04/03/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 1 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season will be starting in about 10 days.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 4/3/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 8 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 595 stocks searched, or 1.3%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 8 bullish chart patterns this week and 0 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 03/26/2020 and 04/02/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 556 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $7.79

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.60 or 41.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -70.00%

Volume: 24,071,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,704,349 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 04/02/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 527 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $2.35

1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.69 or 28.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.85%

Volume: 4,116,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/20/2020 to 04/01/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Drug

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 125 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $76.87

1 Month avg volatility: $4.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $65.93 or 14.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.48%

Volume: 12,254,900 shares. 3 month avg: 11,487,503 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening wedge, descending reversal pattern from 02/04/2020 to 03/31/2020

Breakout is upward 79% of the time.

Average rise: 33%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 79% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 39 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 418 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $11.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.93 or 30.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -33.68%

Volume: 1,999,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,697,154 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 04/01/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 117 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $67.31

1 Month avg volatility: $5.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.19 or 26.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.63%

Volume: 445,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 03/20/2020 to 03/27/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 309 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $12.98

1 Month avg volatility: $0.94. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.32 or 20.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.22%

Volume: 191,400 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 361 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $64.18

1 Month avg volatility: $7.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.51 or 26.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.08%

Volume: 282,400 shares. 3 month avg: 163,825 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 03/09/2020 to 03/31/2020

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 433 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $13.14

1 Month avg volatility: $2.01. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.72 or 33.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.02%

Volume: 1,681,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,204,178 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 03/31/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 379 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $20.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.34 or 19.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -23.65%

Volume: 1,613,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,378,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 02/28/2020 to 04/02/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 11/08/2019. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/08/2020.

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 57 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $156.16

1 Month avg volatility: $10.85. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $126.55 or 19.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 11.02%

Volume: 1,278,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 334 out of 590

4/2/20 close: $107.30

1 Month avg volatility: $9.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $86.14 or 19.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.48%

Volume: 2,667,100 shares. 3 month avg: 1,153,271 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 03/16/2020 to 03/23/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Thursday 4/2/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Not much going on in this pic. The index pierced the red up-sloping trendline. Outlined in green is a falling wedge chart pattern. I was hoping to show a channel, but...

Falling wedges can breakout in any direction but it's usually upward. However, as dire as things are now and predictions coming that covid-19 news will get worse, I expect a downward breakout.

That would agree with the above probabilities, too.

On the daily chart, I'm still expecting the index to drop to the value of the March low and I'm concerned it could go lower if the unemployment rate hits as high as 32%, which is what one news source (PBS Newshour) cited. Ouch. That's higher than the 1929 depression, according to them. Just wait until corporate earnings come out this month and in 3 months from now.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 4/1/20. 2020 Market Forecast April Update

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for March were...

I rounded off the percentages.

Here's the updated 2020 forecast for April.

-- Thomas Bulkowski