As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/24/2024   Indus: 43,297 +390.08 +0.9%     Trans: 16,063 +127.24 +0.8%     Utils: 993 +4.93 +0.5%     Nasdaq: 20,031 +266.24 +1.3%     S&P 500: 6,040 +65.97 +1.1%	YTD  +14.9%    +1.0%    +12.7%    +33.4%    +26.6%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,700 or 15,500 by 01/15/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Friday 5/29/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 4.9%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 12 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 37 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (3) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/21/2020 and 05/28/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 514 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $62.61

1 Month avg volatility: $3.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $55.41 or 11.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.09%

Volume: 186,300 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 409 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $45.88

1 Month avg volatility: $2.40. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.81 or 11.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.37%

Volume: 608,800 shares. 3 month avg: 549,046 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 551 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $7.47

1 Month avg volatility: $0.57. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.24 or 16.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -56.82%

Volume: 7,943,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,821,077 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/12/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/12/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Drug

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 129 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $59.81

1 Month avg volatility: $1.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.87 or 6.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -6.82%

Volume: 14,977,400 shares. 3 month avg: 5,378,746 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 373 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $20.66

1 Month avg volatility: $1.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.15 or 12.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -18.69%

Volume: 1,414,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,257,223 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 333 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $5.90

1 Month avg volatility: $0.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.99 or 15.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -21.56%

Volume: 2,393,400 shares. 3 month avg: 2,285,742 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail (Special Lines)

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 577 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $7.15

1 Month avg volatility: $0.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.65 or 21.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -42.33%

Volume: 837,900 shares. 3 month avg: 567,568 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 352 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $28.79

1 Month avg volatility: $1.82. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $24.99 or 13.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.27%

Volume: 1,614,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,230,068 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 245 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $169.79

1 Month avg volatility: $5.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $158.89 or 6.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -5.12%

Volume: 1,667,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,327,631 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

5/28/20 close: $800.80

1 Month avg volatility: $16.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $754.06 or 5.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.91%

Volume: 59,707,900 shares. 3 month avg: 69,306,917 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/06/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 11 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $100.90

1 Month avg volatility: $4.96. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $112.20 or 11.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 53.86%

Volume: 990,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 05/07/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 528 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $9.59

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.06 or 16.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -45.76%

Volume: 14,421,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,662,882 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/02/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 547 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $10.07

1 Month avg volatility: $0.74. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $8.44 or 16.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -55.00%

Volume: 3,856,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,269,442 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 416 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $102.94

1 Month avg volatility: $3.59. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $94.69 or 8.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -24.68%

Volume: 235,200 shares. 3 month avg: 201,215 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 470 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $5.54

1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.01 or 9.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.04%

Volume: 370,000 shares. 3 month avg: 585,235 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 553 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $11.29

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.58 or 15.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -50.93%

Volume: 909,900 shares. 3 month avg: 523,465 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 424 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $23.00

1 Month avg volatility: $1.18. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.53 or 10.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -29.23%

Volume: 98,600 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 246 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $66.06

1 Month avg volatility: $3.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $57.99 or 12.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -4.08%

Volume: 578,600 shares. 3 month avg: 201,345 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 475 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $74.53

1 Month avg volatility: $3.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $66.80 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -32.79%

Volume: 88,500 shares. 3 month avg: 141,669 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 202 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $33.80

1 Month avg volatility: $1.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.08 or 11.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -1.37%

Volume: 3,543,500 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 569 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $20.12

1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.99 or 15.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -60.51%

Volume: 15,447,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,163,043 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 317 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $16.28

1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.94 or 14.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.15%

Volume: 10,964,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,494,122 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/22/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 36 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 413 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $33.23

1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.91 or 13.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.55%

Volume: 308,600 shares. 3 month avg: 256,088 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 541 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $11.11

1 Month avg volatility: $0.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.12 or 17.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -51.44%

Volume: 283,300 shares. 3 month avg: 303,508 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening bottom reversal pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 53% of the time.

Average rise: 27%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Throwbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 59% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 206 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $46.47

1 Month avg volatility: $2.05. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.97 or 9.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -13.59%

Volume: 38,151,200 shares. 3 month avg: 38,182,855 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 519 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $10.50

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.03 or 14.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.66%

Volume: 484,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 563 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $9.51

1 Month avg volatility: $0.79. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.78 or 18.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -61.71%

Volume: 11,137,700 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/30/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 559 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $18.12

1 Month avg volatility: $1.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.09 or 16.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -55.73%

Volume: 12,465,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,612,688 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 446 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $24.91

1 Month avg volatility: $1.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.34 or 10.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.22%

Volume: 89,200 shares. 3 month avg: 31,645 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 114 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $53.62

1 Month avg volatility: $3.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.06 or 14.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 2.27%

Volume: 306,500 shares. 3 month avg: 94,083 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 145 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $19.99

1 Month avg volatility: $0.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $17.87 or 10.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -2.39%

Volume: 1,407,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,885,975 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 7 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $35.59

1 Month avg volatility: $2.25. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $30.86 or 13.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 51.32%

Volume: 455,800 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 414 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $8.25

1 Month avg volatility: $0.42. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.35 or 10.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -25.81%

Volume: 88,600 shares. 3 month avg: 140,617 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Electric Utility (West)

Industry RS rank: 37 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 280 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $76.85

1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $71.51 or 7.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.54%

Volume: 1,264,000 shares. 3 month avg: 665,203 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern from 05/07/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 38%.

Break-even failure rate: 3%.

Throwbacks occur 45% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 74% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 184 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $75.68

1 Month avg volatility: $2.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $69.90 or 7.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -0.38%

Volume: 285,800 shares. 3 month avg: 213,628 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 05/01/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 226 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $38.51

1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $34.89 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -7.05%

Volume: 81,800 shares. 3 month avg: 37,286 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 394 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $66.41

1 Month avg volatility: $3.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $59.26 or 10.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.72%

Volume: 1,458,300 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 507 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $6.52

1 Month avg volatility: $0.49. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $5.34 or 18.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.07%

Volume: 211,700 shares. 3 month avg: 22,411 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 496 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $3.19

1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.42 or 24.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -48.13%

Volume: 3,028,700 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/08/2020 to 05/28/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Apparel

Industry RS rank: 55 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 487 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $58.79

1 Month avg volatility: $2.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.93 or 8.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -41.01%

Volume: 3,061,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,795,366 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond bottom reversal pattern from 05/01/2020 to 05/22/2020

Breakout is upward 69% of the time.

Average rise: 36%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 53% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 81% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 469 out of 582

5/28/20 close: $47.70

1 Month avg volatility: $2.53. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $42.16 or 11.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -32.00%

Volume: 768,700 shares. 3 month avg: 812,517 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Thursday 5/28/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index formed a V-bottom chart pattern, shown here in red.

I drew a blue trendline down, because on the daily scale, these types of overhead resistance can mean the stock will turn there.

However, intraday and on an index, too, the index only stalled briefly where the red and blue lines merge. It may have stalled there for 15-20 minutes or so. And then it continued rising.

The V-bottom was a tradeable pattern. I even wrote a quiz about them.

If you use the trendline measure rule, the index might rise to 9,575 (that's an estimate using my eyeball). So that's what I expect will happen.

A week ago Thursday, there was a small head-and-shoulders hiding in the congestion region where I've labeled L-H-R (Left shoulder, Head, Right shoulder). That confirmed and led to a huge rally.

A double top (DD) confirmed as a valid pattern but didn't quite see price drop to the measure rule target. It only made it down to A.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/27/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI (chart pattern indicator) is bumping up against its ceiling (100). It has been moving sideways up there, at high altitude, for about a week.

I'm thinking that everything will be fine for about 3 weeks. And then the second wave (of covid-19) or second peak or whatever term you choose to use, hits. Why? Because spots of people forgot all about social distancing this holiday weekend. And the virus is going to spread because of it. It'll take that long (3 weeks) to germinate and blossom.

If it gets nasty the index might drop. Or it could wait until September or October when the next surprise hits. Those periods are historically week for the indices. I might save my cash until then.

Of course, I've been wrong about the indices making a second bottom for a month now, so what do I know?

Returning to the chart, it seems the CPI doesn't stay up there long (near or at 100), so my guess is the indices will drop tomorrow and maybe for a few days.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines show improvement from a week ago.

I thought the slope of the red and blue lines are steeper than the index but the blue line shows less slope, and the red one slightly more. I know that the red is more sensitive than the blue, so that's probably all it is. I don't see any significance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/26/20. Slider Quiz! Abgenix 2

$ $ $

I show another slider quiz featuring a second trade in Abgenix stock.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 2/25/19. Feeding ThePatternSite.

Today (Monday) is a trading holiday in the US.

If you wish to support the website, then try one of these options.

1. Perhaps the best way is come to this site and click on an image of one of my books. You'll find the images either at the bottom of the page or along the left side. The click will take you to Amazon.com. The link passes a code to them and I receive a small referral fee but only if you buy something while there during the visit. You do NOT need to buy the book. It's just a vehicle to get you to Amazon with the referral code.

   So each time you want to use Amazon.com to buy something, come to this site first. The referral is free (it does not increase the cost of anything you buy), it's easy to do, and it supports this site.

Thanks! -- Tom Bulkowski

Saturday 2/24/19. Patternz release.

I released a new version of Patternz version 7.24 to fix a bug that appears on the simulator form if you move data.

Tom Bulkowski

Friday 5/22/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 24 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 4.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 3 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 18 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (5) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/14/2020 and 05/21/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 100 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $45.19

1 Month avg volatility: $2.05. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $51.56 or 14.1% above the close.

Change YTD: 5.17%

Volume: 1,000,500 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 05/11/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 151 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $224.78

1 Month avg volatility: $6.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $241.94 or 7.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -6.76%

Volume: 2,371,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,770,322 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/28/2020 to 05/18/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 281 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $47.17

1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $41.85 or 11.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -17.62%

Volume: 419,000 shares. 3 month avg: 204,463 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and descending continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/20/2020

Breakout is upward 51% of the time.

Average rise: 28%.

Break-even failure rate: 19%.

Throwbacks occur 52% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 63% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 482 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $4.71

1 Month avg volatility: $0.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.95 or 16.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -43.93%

Volume: 10,207,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 246 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $103.58

1 Month avg volatility: $3.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $111.76 or 7.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -10.42%

Volume: 2,938,300 shares. 3 month avg: 915,811 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 197 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $91.87

1 Month avg volatility: $2.90. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $99.04 or 7.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -7.96%

Volume: 442,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,151,138 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/28/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 404 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $116.27

1 Month avg volatility: $4.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $129.57 or 11.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -24.55%

Volume: 349,400 shares. 3 month avg: 564,655 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 120 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $4.20

1 Month avg volatility: $0.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.61 or 14.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -3.23%

Volume: 2,197,800 shares. 3 month avg: 5,624,629 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/17/2020 to 05/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 391 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $2.30

1 Month avg volatility: $0.26. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.79 or 22.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -35.75%

Volume: 25,500 shares. 3 month avg: 98,162 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 05/05/2020 to 05/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 18 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $3.44

1 Month avg volatility: $0.19. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.86 or 16.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.47%

Volume: 9,993,900 shares. 3 month avg: 4,539,271 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 505 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $12.86

1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $9.86 or 23.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -38.38%

Volume: 210,400 shares. 3 month avg: 1,539,280 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/20/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 188 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $164.10

1 Month avg volatility: $4.87. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $153.69 or 6.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.65%

Volume: 1,009,300 shares. 3 month avg: 1,139,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 293 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $29.34

1 Month avg volatility: $1.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $32.97 or 12.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -14.39%

Volume: 2,624,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,684,634 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 362 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $25.81

1 Month avg volatility: $1.33. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.80 or 11.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.04%

Volume: 518,900 shares. 3 month avg: 854,403 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 576 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $29.42

1 Month avg volatility: $2.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $16.86 or 42.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -79.57%

Volume: 4,231,900 shares. 3 month avg: 10,861,705 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/23/2020 to 05/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/05/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/04/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/03/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 24 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 278 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $427.02

1 Month avg volatility: $12.96. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $398.38 or 6.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -12.23%

Volume: 56,100 shares. 3 month avg: 31,329 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/28/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 5 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $351.01

1 Month avg volatility: $11.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $327.42 or 6.7% below the close.

Change YTD: 49.18%

Volume: 17,552,200 shares. 3 month avg: 15,363,712 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 570 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $14.25

1 Month avg volatility: $1.11. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $11.97 or 16.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -65.42%

Volume: 35,700,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,088,786 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 561 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $3.89

1 Month avg volatility: $0.39. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $2.90 or 25.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -62.95%

Volume: 10,352,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,925,269 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/21/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 313 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $32.69

1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $28.36 or 13.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.75%

Volume: 4,503,100 shares. 3 month avg: 4,812,565 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Diversified Co.

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 125 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $203.73

1 Month avg volatility: $6.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $190.58 or 6.5% below the close.

Change YTD: 0.52%

Volume: 789,700 shares. 3 month avg: 805,498 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 05/18/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Basic)

Industry RS rank: 20 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 12 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $149.58

1 Month avg volatility: $4.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $136.02 or 9.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 40.87%

Volume: 506,200 shares. 3 month avg: 327,891 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 346 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $52.00

1 Month avg volatility: $2.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $46.52 or 10.5% below the close.

Change YTD: -20.23%

Volume: 416,200 shares. 3 month avg: 158,554 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 05/04/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 226 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $54.30

1 Month avg volatility: $1.85. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $58.99 or 8.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -11.07%

Volume: 23,108,200 shares. 3 month avg: 4,406,445 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 22 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 321 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $73.64

1 Month avg volatility: $3.72. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $64.75 or 12.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -14.96%

Volume: 465,900 shares. 3 month avg: 325,660 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/02/2020 to 05/21/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Retail Store

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 112 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $124.99

1 Month avg volatility: $2.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $118.88 or 4.9% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.18%

Volume: 7,506,500 shares. 3 month avg: 9,313,488 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple bottom reversal pattern from 05/01/2020 to 05/15/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 37%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 64% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 64% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 138 out of 582

5/21/20 close: $258.46

1 Month avg volatility: $5.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $271.39 or 5.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -2.22%

Volume: 177,400 shares. 3 month avg: 82,220 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/17/2020 to 05/15/2020

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Thursday 5/21/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

Shown is the measure rule for trendlines applied in a different way. Usually you measure the height of the stock above the trendline to determine how far down price will go.

In this case, I'm using the green line from A to B (measured vertically) to determine how far price will move up after it reaches the trendline. I show that move at C. I don't think it quite made it but it sure is close.

If you believe in price mirrors then it looks like Thursday will be a calm but up-sloping day in the Nasdaq to match the move on Monday.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/20/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

I want to watch a PBS show on tornadoes in a few minutes, so I'll type faster. (That's a joke).

The CPI is in neutral territory: 50. That leaves the bullish signal intact, as the vertical green bar shows. With today' drop, it was nip and tuck whether it would turn bearish or not.

Guess it'll have to wait another day to see what happens.

The index is trending sideways, waiting for good news to push it up or bad news to take it down.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines this week show improvement over the prior week. The readings are still poor with lots of stocks that I follow suffering. There are some bright sectors like computer software and services.

There's a slight turn down in the trend of both the blue and red lines over the last 3 weeks. It suggests continued weakness.

So you have a bullish CPI chart that's tittering on being bearish and the above chart looking awful (by the numbers) but also showing weakness by the slight downward trend.

It's possible that both of these charts show a pause before the upward move resumes, so I don't have any firm answers here. The trend can go either way.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/19/20. Finding the Market Bottom

Recently, I was asked if we were in a bull or bear market. To put it another way, how do we know the Dow industrials have bottomed?

1. 1-2-3 Trend change 1) Price follows a down-sloping trendline then pierces it moving up. 2) Price tests the low made in 1. 3) Price rises above the high set between 1 and 2. When those three steps occur, you have a trend change from down to up. The three steps completed in early April.
2. A Higher Bottom. Think of a ugly double bottom where the second bottom is above the first. The second bottom occurred in early April.
3. CPI is Bullish. The CPI turned bullish at the bottom in March.
4. Chart Patterns. As price dropped, bearish patterns were prolific. That changed on Friday 27 March, when every chart pattern in the list (43 of them) was bullish. The sighting of an overwhelming number of bullish patterns continued for a month.
5. Pipe Bottoms. I found so many pipe bottoms that I stopped logging then. That was near the March low. They don't appear in each Friday's blog post, but they are on the charts. Pipe bottoms are bullish patterns and can signal a market bottom when they appear in large numbers at the same time.
6. Stock Downgrades. I looked at 691 stock rating downgrades and sorted them according to where they occurred within the yearly price range. I found that in a bull market between 46% and 48% appeared within a third of the yearly low. The number is the highest of the three ranges. In other words, analysts are downgrading stocks near their low, right when they should be upgrading them. I completed that study years ago, and I haven't checked if that's the case this time around.
7. You Feel Like Selling Everything. This is self-explanatory but if not, read the link.
8. High Volume Bottom. Volume in the Dow ticked up starting in February and was receding by April. It had a dome shape.
9. Bad News Moves Nothing. We see this with economic reports and covid-19 reports of death. The market may drop for a day but that's it. From the March low, the Dow has rebounded.
10. Good News Lifts the Market. Today's (Monday) is a good example of good news lifting the markets. Positive comments by the FED's chairman Powell and news of a promising covid vaccine helped boost the market by just over 900 points.

So there you have it. We've bottomed in the Dow. But we could still see the Dow industrials make a second bottom to mirror the first. As mentioned above, a lot of this information was signaling a turn back in March to early April. Too bad I didn't report on it then. Sigh. A missed opportunity

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/18/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

A storm is moving in so I'll be brief.

I show the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Two diamond tops appear on the chart, outlined in red. They are not exactly easy to see, but they have a nice shape, especially the more recent one.

Recently, two peaks formed near the same price. I show that as AB.

Is it a double top? No. Why not?

Because price hasn't closed below C (even though on this chart, it looks like it has), the lowest low between the two peaks. I thought it had, but closer examination shows the index closed higher.

So we have a potential double top at ABC, which is a bearish pattern.

However, if price closes above the top of the pattern, then it's quite bullish. It wouldn't be what I call a busted double top because we didn't see a downward breakout, but my guess is it would be just as bullish.

We'll have to wait and see if that's what happens.

Have a good weekend everyone!

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/15/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 full triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 5/15/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 47 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 8.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is likely moving sideways, creating those chart patterns.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 5 bullish chart patterns this week and 31 bearish ones with any remaining (12) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bearish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 05/07/2020 and 05/14/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 335 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $6.90

1 Month avg volatility: $0.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $7.89 or 14.3% above the close.

Change YTD: -21.14%

Volume: 3,384,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,031,971 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 167 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $60.32

1 Month avg volatility: $3.04. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $49.49 or 18.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.28%

Volume: 264,600 shares. 3 month avg: 447,252 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/14/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 218 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $59.94

1 Month avg volatility: $1.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.78 or 6.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -16.97%

Volume: 844,500 shares. 3 month avg: 895,243 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/30/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 521 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $48.23

1 Month avg volatility: $3.08. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $55.06 or 14.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -53.85%

Volume: 164,700 shares. 3 month avg: 141,992 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/08/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 144 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $84.03

1 Month avg volatility: $3.26. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $90.68 or 7.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -1.16%

Volume: 1,488,200 shares. 3 month avg: 2,046,918 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/28/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 541 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $16.96

1 Month avg volatility: $1.16. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.71 or 16.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -47.82%

Volume: 357,700 shares. 3 month avg: 243,183 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/08/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Precision Instrument

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 160 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $54.63

1 Month avg volatility: $2.47. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $60.29 or 10.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.86%

Volume: 197,800 shares. 3 month avg: 149,246 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/17/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 492 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $19.07

1 Month avg volatility: $1.48. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $22.05 or 15.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -40.37%

Volume: 538,700 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/08/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 14%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 121 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $232.93

1 Month avg volatility: $8.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $251.00 or 7.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -6.82%

Volume: 154,100 shares. 3 month avg: 131,971 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 282 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $50.74

1 Month avg volatility: $1.87. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $54.52 or 7.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -18.19%

Volume: 5,218,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,250,685 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 396 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $19.94

1 Month avg volatility: $0.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $21.41 or 7.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -31.50%

Volume: 4,257,100 shares. 3 month avg: 5,449,098 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 247 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $139.52

1 Month avg volatility: $6.83. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $153.38 or 9.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -17.38%

Volume: 377,800 shares. 3 month avg: 637,325 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

5/14/20 close: $7,861.34

1 Month avg volatility: $194.72. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $8,255.48 or 5.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -27.89%

Volume: 315,539,400 shares. 3 month avg: 202,883,938 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

5/14/20 close: $23,625.34

1 Month avg volatility: $426.21. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24,483.28 or 3.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -17.22%

Volume: 476,984,500 shares. 3 month avg: 526,796,505 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/17/2020 to 05/12/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 481 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $53.52

1 Month avg volatility: $2.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.48 or 11.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -40.97%

Volume: 399,100 shares. 3 month avg: 553,088 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 414 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $47.56

1 Month avg volatility: $2.70. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.51 or 14.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -43.22%

Volume: 5,903,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,618,102 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/14/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 526 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $22.98

1 Month avg volatility: $1.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $26.13 or 13.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -53.83%

Volume: 1,908,900 shares. 3 month avg: 1,457,883 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 395 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $4.58

1 Month avg volatility: $0.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $3.94 or 14.1% below the close.

Change YTD: -23.92%

Volume: 1,600 shares. 3 month avg: 8,680 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/05/2020 to 05/14/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Securities Brokerage

Industry RS rank: 38 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 298 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $174.45

1 Month avg volatility: $5.64. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $186.06 or 6.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -24.13%

Volume: 4,174,900 shares. 3 month avg: 2,673,269 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/20/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Machinery

Industry RS rank: 40 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 172 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $43.98

1 Month avg volatility: $1.42. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $46.95 or 6.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.42%

Volume: 933,400 shares. 3 month avg: 251,886 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Eve reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Break-even failure rate: 14%.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 69% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 408 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $14.61

1 Month avg volatility: $0.99. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $16.60 or 13.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -28.14%

Volume: 172,500 shares. 3 month avg: 83,558 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 26 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 233 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $18.76

1 Month avg volatility: $0.73. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $20.54 or 9.5% above the close.

Change YTD: -10.88%

Volume: 444,000 shares. 3 month avg: 472,148 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/12/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 203 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $154.85

1 Month avg volatility: $5.10. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $165.16 or 6.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.80%

Volume: 1,726,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,139,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Telecom. Equipment

Industry RS rank: 30 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 393 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $4.09

1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $5.00 or 22.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -48.49%

Volume: 5,886,000 shares. 3 month avg: 1,624,214 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Dead-cat bounce continuation pattern from 05/13/2020 to 05/13/2020

Breakout is downward 67% of the time.

Average decline: 18%.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 542 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $7.41

1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $9.01 or 21.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -55.36%

Volume: 461,000 shares. 3 month avg: 457,515 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/08/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 6 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 346 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $71.62

1 Month avg volatility: $3.02. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $77.78 or 8.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -23.57%

Volume: 655,900 shares. 3 month avg: 371,714 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 533 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $9.99

1 Month avg volatility: $0.66. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $11.36 or 13.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -51.67%

Volume: 162,900 shares. 3 month avg: 102,372 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/14/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 517 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $27.03

1 Month avg volatility: $1.93. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $31.01 or 14.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -46.82%

Volume: 2,257,200 shares. 3 month avg: 981,391 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 142 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $110.39

1 Month avg volatility: $3.21. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $99.78 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -7.82%

Volume: 6,096,800 shares. 3 month avg: 6,401,252 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/14/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Advertising

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 569 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $1.34

1 Month avg volatility: $0.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $1.63 or 22.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -64.55%

Volume: 153,000 shares. 3 month avg: 97,160 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/28/2020 to 05/11/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/13/2020. There is a 38% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 08/13/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 554 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $20.24

1 Month avg volatility: $1.27. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $23.00 or 13.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -51.40%

Volume: 419,600 shares. 3 month avg: 361,806 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Metal Fabricating

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 364 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $22.19

1 Month avg volatility: $1.15. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $24.76 or 11.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -30.11%

Volume: 396,000 shares. 3 month avg: 161,678 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/14/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Drug

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 217 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $15.22

1 Month avg volatility: $0.71. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $17.00 or 11.7% above the close.

Change YTD: -24.28%

Volume: 7,510,100 shares. 3 month avg: 6,554,668 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 41 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 350 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $30.33

1 Month avg volatility: $1.43. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $33.19 or 9.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -31.95%

Volume: 635,900 shares. 3 month avg: 632,043 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 45 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 157 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $86.55

1 Month avg volatility: $2.11. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $90.81 or 4.9% above the close.

Change YTD: -14.57%

Volume: 7,424,900 shares. 3 month avg: 10,538,462 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/17/2020 to 05/14/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Producing)

Industry RS rank: 57 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 557 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $8.46

1 Month avg volatility: $0.80. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.45 or 23.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -65.96%

Volume: 8,532,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,869,591 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/30/2020 to 05/11/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/11/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/10/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/09/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Healthcare Information

Industry RS rank: 1 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 260 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $60.39

1 Month avg volatility: $3.46. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.41 or 11.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -26.10%

Volume: 640,900 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/20/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 363 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $11.60

1 Month avg volatility: $0.56. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $13.41 or 15.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -28.70%

Volume: 241,400 shares. 3 month avg: 70,862 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: IT Services

Industry RS rank: 12 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 332 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $63.13

1 Month avg volatility: $1.92. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $67.01 or 6.2% above the close.

Change YTD: -25.78%

Volume: 3,048,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,048,471 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 22%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Pullbacks occur 50% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 55% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 14 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $31.86

1 Month avg volatility: $2.09. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $36.63 or 15.0% above the close.

Change YTD: 35.46%

Volume: 778,100 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 27 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 324 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $57.45

1 Month avg volatility: $2.59. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $63.41 or 10.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -25.33%

Volume: 238,100 shares. 3 month avg: 160,228 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/11/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 5 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $271.55

1 Month avg volatility: $13.84. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $242.90 or 10.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 60.99%

Volume: 1,622,400 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe bottom reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 45%.

Break-even failure rate: 5%.

Throwbacks occur 44% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 83% of the time.

Industry: None

Industry RS rank is unavailable.

5/14/20 close: $2,852.50

1 Month avg volatility: $48.45. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $2,949.70 or 3.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -11.71%

Volume: 3,348,510,300 shares. 3 month avg: 3,424,326,105 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Top, Adam and Adam reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/12/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 8%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 72% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 29 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $2.63

1 Month avg volatility: $0.29. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $3.36 or 27.8% above the close.

Change YTD: 8.68%

Volume: 17,291,800 shares. 3 month avg: 16,683,949 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/22/2020 to 05/14/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 501 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $9.68

1 Month avg volatility: $0.51. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $10.75 or 11.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -52.69%

Volume: 572,300 shares. 3 month avg: 708,518 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/29/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Furn/Home Furnishings

Industry RS rank: 56 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 452 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $52.39

1 Month avg volatility: $3.28. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $59.17 or 13.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -39.82%

Volume: 1,016,000 shares. 3 month avg: 985,960 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triple top reversal pattern from 04/30/2020 to 05/08/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 19%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 61% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 40% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Specialty)

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 460 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $13.38

1 Month avg volatility: $0.81. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.30 or 14.4% above the close.

Change YTD: -40.13%

Volume: 133,800 shares. 3 month avg: 64,734 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 534 out of 582

5/14/20 close: $13.82

1 Month avg volatility: $0.86. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $15.63 or 13.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -52.61%

Volume: 4,252,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,168,134 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pipe top reversal pattern from 04/27/2020 to 05/04/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 20%.

Break-even failure rate: 11%.

Pullbacks occur 41% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Thursday 5/14/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

When I saw the chart, I actually got excited. Makes you wonder what turns me on, huh?

Anyway, I show 5 days on the chart instead of the usual 10 because I wanted a closer view of the congestion region formed today.

Let's start with the measured move down. That's the pattern from A to D. The theory is that leg CD will equal the length of AB. The corrective phase BC is in the middle.

After the pattern completes, price often returns to the corrective phase. You see that happening now (trying to, that is).

A broadening bottom appears here outlined with red lines. The breakout can be in any direction from this pattern. You can see price at the top trendline, moving up.

The pattern already has 5 or 6 trendline touches, so it looks like it's ready to continue higher. That's my guess. It's different from the above probabilities, but I think the index will recover to the corrective phase of the MMD in the next day or two.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/13/20. A Look At Indicators

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bearish signal which appeared almost two week ago has prevailed. A temporary bullish signal has disappeared. That one lasted a few days, until today's drop of 450 (in the Dow industrials)

The CPI reading is 1. Not 0. One. That's very bearish. It would take a strong upward move to change that.

If you look at the CPI, it's been showing bearish divergence since early April (starting three peaks ago). The indicator made lower peaks even as the index made higher peaks. Of course, the index has now made a slightly lower peak, following the indicator down.

This chart is bearish unless you consider that the upside is a lot higher than the one point downside. The indicator can flat-line at 0, too, like it did in February and March.

What's the next chart say?

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines turned lower from a week ago. The red, blue, and black lines agree: The last two peaks show a lower high. It's most obvious on the red and blue lines.

The lines are converging not diverging. But they are signaling a downward trend.

Perhaps I'm wrong, and I frequently am, but it looks like the markets will line sideways here. They might plunge for a few days and then recover, to move horizontally.

The leaders in the government portray that the worst is behind us and I think that's untrue. The coming second and maybe additional waves of covid-19 are going to be worse.

To put it another way, how much has your alcohol consumption increased? The BBC website reports that March sales were up 22% in the UK and a massive 55% in the US compared to the prior year. No wonder the government says liquor stores are essential businesses. They are essential to fatten the tax coffers.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/12/20. Slider Quiz!

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I show another slider quiz featuring a trade I made in Abgenix.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/11/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

This is a chart of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I don't see much of anything going on. There was a V bottom with a small extension, which I show here with a red line.

April was earnings reporting month and as the chart show, the index ignored the results. Will it ignore it in 3 months time?

Unemployment is getting worse, but the index marches upward. Clearly the index is discounting the bad news.

Here's what I think will happen going forward. We'll have a second wave of Covid-19. There's too much business openings with too many sick people for there not to be a second wave.

There might be a third or more waves until we get a vaccine. And even then it won't be enough. It'll take months for people to get their shot. However, as more people recover from the virus, they'll build up a bubble of immunity around those still vulnerable.

How will the markets react? The short answer is I don't know. The second quarter will be a more difficult one for businesses than the first quarter, I think.

The second wave might not be a wave that blankets the US from shore to shore. It may only occur in pockets. We're seeing pockets of that happening now with too many infected people partying with those vulnerable, like people working in meat packaging industry or on cruise ships.

My guess is the markets will take a hit, maybe a few thousand points (that's in the Dow industrials, not the Nasdaq). I'm suspecting that the index won't be hurt much. Why? Because we've already been through the wringer once. How much worse can it get?

Look at the chart. I drew a vertical blue line marking 1 January 2020. The I drew it horizontally. The Nasdaq has recovered from the flash bear market already.

The other indices are still suffering, but not this one.

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/08/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bullish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Friday 5/8/20. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

Click the link for a list of symbols from the table.

The following patterns were found manually, so the results may differ from those found using Patternz.

There were 41 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 587 stocks searched, or 7.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 33 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

More...

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Weekly screen for chart patterns ending between 04/30/2020 and 05/07/2020. Many may be still in development. If no securities appear, then I have not identified any new patterns.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 392 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $86.73

1 Month avg volatility: $3.62. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $77.69 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.33%

Volume: 4,627,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,419,958 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/05/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Prop/Casualty)

Industry RS rank: 51 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 544 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $25.52

1 Month avg volatility: $1.51. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $20.75 or 18.7% below the close.

Change YTD: -50.28%

Volume: 8,239,200 shares. 3 month avg: 5,185,998 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/25/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 366 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $62.14

1 Month avg volatility: $2.66. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $56.38 or 9.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.67%

Volume: 418,000 shares. 3 month avg: 447,163 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Pennant continuation pattern from 04/30/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 61% of the time.

Average rise: 25%.

Break-even failure rate: 2%.

Throwbacks occur 47% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 60% of the time.

Industry: Insurance (Life)

Industry RS rank: 54 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 474 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $29.44

1 Month avg volatility: $1.69. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $25.03 or 15.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -39.94%

Volume: 604,200 shares. 3 month avg: 1,068,715 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Retail Building Supply

Industry RS rank: 19 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 436 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $22.00

1 Month avg volatility: $1.24. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $18.64 or 15.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.21%

Volume: 570,000 shares. 3 month avg: 811,195 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 84 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $314.01

1 Month avg volatility: $9.95. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $288.62 or 8.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 5.82%

Volume: 1,763,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,244,726 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Double Bottom, Eve and Adam reversal pattern from 04/22/2020 to 05/01/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 4%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Shoe

Industry RS rank: 44 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 537 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $18.21

1 Month avg volatility: $1.32. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $15.25 or 16.3% below the close.

Change YTD: -59.11%

Volume: 1,203,200 shares. 3 month avg: 434,749 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Electronics

Industry RS rank: 29 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 375 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $5.73

1 Month avg volatility: $0.34. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $4.95 or 13.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -30.71%

Volume: 437,800 shares. 3 month avg: 557,234 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Cement and Aggregates

Industry RS rank: 50 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 515 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $2.13

1 Month avg volatility: $0.16. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.78 or 16.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -43.65%

Volume: 4,393,500 shares. 3 month avg: 9,928,860 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Biotechnology

Industry RS rank: 3 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 39 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $156.56

1 Month avg volatility: $5.31. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $167.89 or 7.2% above the close.

Change YTD: 2.49%

Volume: 774,600 shares. 3 month avg: 379,248 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Roof, inverted reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/06/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 17%.

Break-even failure rate: 10%.

Pullbacks occur 56% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 73% of the time.

Industry: Computers and Peripherals

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 13 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 259 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $41.37

1 Month avg volatility: $1.07. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $43.90 or 6.1% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.74%

Volume: 20,133,100 shares. 3 month avg: 19,682,477 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top, right-angled and ascending reversal pattern from 04/07/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is downward 66% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 20%.

Pullbacks occur 65% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 32% of the time.

Industry: Natural Gas (Distributor)

Industry RS rank: 43 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 255 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $2.08

1 Month avg volatility: $0.14. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $1.75 or 15.9% below the close.

Change YTD: -11.11%

Volume: 658,500 shares. 3 month avg: 1,021,160 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/12/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 384 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $42.42

1 Month avg volatility: $2.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.34 or 12.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.77%

Volume: 9,520,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,156,062 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Financial Services

Industry RS rank: 17 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 535 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $40.48

1 Month avg volatility: $2.43. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $35.15 or 13.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -52.28%

Volume: 3,993,300 shares. 3 month avg: 2,443,809 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Monday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 4 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $103.86

1 Month avg volatility: $4.68. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $92.85 or 10.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 58.37%

Volume: 1,206,600 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Aerospace/Defense

Industry RS rank: 46 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 225 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $47.90

1 Month avg volatility: $2.30. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $40.05 or 16.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.01%

Volume: 7,937,700 shares. 3 month avg: 1,165,460 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 02/27/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 05/28/2020 and a 38% chance by 08/27/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 12 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $135.12

1 Month avg volatility: $4.89. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $110.64 or 18.1% below the close.

Change YTD: 26.56%

Volume: 5,350,600 shares. 3 month avg: 1,532,971 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 274 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $8.97

1 Month avg volatility: $0.44. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $7.91 or 11.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -31.63%

Volume: 18,687,000 shares. 3 month avg: 16,878,592 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Supplies

Industry RS rank: 8 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 81 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $52.94

1 Month avg volatility: $1.75. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $48.70 or 8.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 1.40%

Volume: 2,516,400 shares. 3 month avg: 3,130,522 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 216 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $47.16

1 Month avg volatility: $1.91. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $43.00 or 8.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -10.60%

Volume: 3,991,800 shares. 3 month avg: 4,390,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Trucking/Transp. Leasing

Industry RS rank: 28 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 221 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $44.15

1 Month avg volatility: $2.34. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $49.35 or 11.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -13.92%

Volume: 264,400 shares. 3 month avg: 343,494 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Horn top reversal pattern from 04/13/2020 to 04/27/2020

Breakout is downward 100% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 7%.

Pullbacks occur 33% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 70% of the time.

Industry: Toiletries/Cosmetics

Industry RS rank: 33 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 510 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $43.53

1 Month avg volatility: $3.07. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $37.18 or 14.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -40.13%

Volume: 131,500 shares. 3 month avg: 72,294 shares.

This security may be thinly traded (less than 100k shares)!

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 03/26/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Chemical (Diversified)

Industry RS rank: 35 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 565 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $1.03

1 Month avg volatility: $0.09. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $0.81 or 21.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -61.99%

Volume: 868,800 shares. 3 month avg: 1,190,495 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 04/02/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 133 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $16.12

1 Month avg volatility: $1.20. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $19.11 or 18.6% above the close.

Change YTD: -0.06%

Volume: 1,930,700 shares. 3 month avg: 321,822 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Tuesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Diamond top reversal pattern from 04/22/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is downward 69% of the time.

Average decline: 21%.

Break-even failure rate: 6%.

Pullbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 76% of the time.

Industry: Air Transport

Industry RS rank: 52 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 557 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $8.18

1 Month avg volatility: $0.67. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $6.58 or 19.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -56.30%

Volume: 17,729,600 shares. 3 month avg: 6,141,268 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/03/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 222 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $247.63

1 Month avg volatility: $12.79. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $279.35 or 12.8% above the close.

Change YTD: -15.31%

Volume: 1,526,700 shares. 3 month avg: 2,565,394 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/01/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 257 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $50.84

1 Month avg volatility: $2.37. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.54 or 10.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -8.87%

Volume: 2,869,200 shares. 3 month avg: 3,465,638 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 4 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 22 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $30.40

1 Month avg volatility: $1.52. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $26.68 or 12.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 14.29%

Volume: 902,800 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/23/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Metals and Mining (Div.)

Industry RS rank: 32 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 277 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $50.11

1 Month avg volatility: $2.20. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $45.31 or 9.6% below the close.

Change YTD: -15.71%

Volume: 108,300 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 396 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $27.39

1 Month avg volatility: $1.65. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $23.61 or 13.8% below the close.

Change YTD: -28.22%

Volume: 710,600 shares. 3 month avg: 498,709 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 29 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $183.60

1 Month avg volatility: $4.38. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.83 or 5.3% below the close.

Change YTD: 16.42%

Volume: 28,167,400 shares. 3 month avg: 21,460,729 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Wednesday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, ascending reversal pattern from 04/17/2020 to 05/04/2020

Breakout is upward 70% of the time.

Average rise: 35%.

Break-even failure rate: 13%.

Throwbacks occur 57% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 75% of the time.

Industry: Human Resources

Industry RS rank: 48 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 345 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $52.07

1 Month avg volatility: $2.29. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $47.20 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -26.63%

Volume: 391,700 shares. 3 month avg: 295,840 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Medical Services

Industry RS rank: 10 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 6 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $37.55

1 Month avg volatility: $2.12. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $32.91 or 12.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 59.65%

Volume: 460,200 shares. 3 month avg: 739,945 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Computer Software and Svcs

Industry RS rank: 2 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 8 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $259.70

1 Month avg volatility: $15.28. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $215.45 or 17.0% below the close.

Change YTD: 53.97%

Volume: 2,138,500 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/17/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Oilfield Svcs/Equipment

Industry RS rank: 58 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 541 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $16.73

1 Month avg volatility: $1.22. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $13.85 or 17.2% below the close.

Change YTD: -58.38%

Volume: 14,608,500 shares. 3 month avg: 8,320,412 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Triangle, symmetrical continuation pattern from 04/01/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 54% of the time.

Average rise: 31%.

Break-even failure rate: 9%.

Throwbacks occur 37% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 66% of the time.

Industry: Internet

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 9 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 1 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $194.88

1 Month avg volatility: $8.13. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $173.82 or 10.8% below the close.

Change YTD: 133.33%

Volume: 979,800 shares. 3 month avg: 426,580 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Thursday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/16/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Semiconductor Cap Equip.

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 21 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 147 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $62.43

1 Month avg volatility: $3.03. Volatility stop (for downward breakout): $68.70 or 10.0% above the close.

Change YTD: -8.45%

Volume: 2,370,800 shares. 3 month avg: 2,362,042 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Friday.

 

Chart pattern: Broadening top reversal pattern from 04/09/2020 to 05/01/2020

Breakout is downward 50% of the time.

Average decline: 15%.

Break-even failure rate: 18%.

Pullbacks occur 48% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 37% of the time.

Industry: Drug

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 5 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 14 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $11.55

1 Month avg volatility: $0.45. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $10.46 or 9.4% below the close.

Change YTD: 17.86%

Volume: 37,055,600 shares. 3 month avg: 26,334,894 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Wednesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/09/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/08/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/07/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Homebuilding

Industry RS rank: 47 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 448 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $25.85

1 Month avg volatility: $1.50. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $22.39 or 13.4% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.57%

Volume: 2,615,100 shares. 3 month avg: 2,237,614 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Building Materials

WARNING: This industry is within the top 7 that Dead-cat bounce often.

Industry RS rank: 42 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 36 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $110.33

1 Month avg volatility: $5.80. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $98.62 or 10.6% below the close.

Change YTD: 22.75%

Volume: 859,800 shares. 3 month avg: 245,355 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Friday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Thursday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/19/2020 to 05/07/2020

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Industry: Petroleum (Integrated)

Industry RS rank: 53 out of 58

Stock RS rank: 473 out of 582

5/7/20 close: $61.26

1 Month avg volatility: $3.77. Volatility stop (for upward breakout): $53.31 or 13.0% below the close.

Change YTD: -34.59%

Volume: 4,307,100 shares. 3 month avg: 3,584,486 shares.

Since 2009 bear market, the best buy day (fewest up closes) is Monday, and best sell day (most up closes) is Tuesday.

 

Chart pattern: Flag, high and tight continuation pattern from 03/18/2020 to 05/07/2020

WARNING: A dead-cat bounce occurred on 03/12/2020. There is a 26% chance that a 15% or higher decline will occur (or has occurred since then) by 06/11/2020 and a 38% chance by 09/10/2020.

Breakout is upward 100% of the time.

Average rise: 69%.

Throwbacks occur 54% of the time.

Price hits measure rule target 90% of the time.

Thursday 5/7/20. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

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Patternz users! If you use Patternz to update your stock quotes, it may appear to be working (no error messages), but it might not be. That's because support for TLS 1.0 and TLS 1.1 was removed on the Internet (not by me) and sites are moving to TLS 1.2. I've a new version which fixes the problem.

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I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

The index bumped up against overhead resistance shown by the red line and has struggled to pierce it.

However, at the bottom of the drop is a nice looking head-and-shoulders bottom chart pattern. It sent the index higher (that's not really what happened, but it's nice to believe it).

That's all she wrote. I'm off to fix Patternz now...

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Wednesday 5/6/20. Indicators Bearish But...

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The chart pattern indicator looks like the bearish signal will stay. Why? It can change for up to a week but is usually solid after 3 days. It's been 6 now, including the weekend.

A big move could still change it, but it would have to be a wicked rise in the markets.

More likely is that a new bullish signal will appear. You can see the thin blue line in the neutral zone (near 50). If it continues rising, it'll turn green (bullish). I expect that to happen in the next day or two.

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Both lines, even though the chart shows them ticking up today, they are still lower than they were a week ago.

However, the uptrend is still intact. Both red and blue lines started moving up in mid March and are now significantly higher.

I am having second thoughts about the indices tumbling. I do believe we'll have a second wave of covid-19, maybe even a covid-20 or -21 in the winter. Unemployment claims will continue to rise at least for a few more weeks, but maybe not. If not, then the markets could really zip higher. Poor earnings will hit this quarter (but haven't really made a dent so far) and will make a bigger splash next quarter, but I don't see that affecting the upward trajectory for more than a few days.

I thought we'd see the indices drop back to the March lows. Now? Maybe not.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Tuesday 5/5/20. Slider Tutorial: Swing Rule!

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I show another slider tutorial featuring the swing rule.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Monday 5/4/20. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

• My Prediction
• A Brief Look Back
• Options Expiration
• Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator
• Swing Traders: Pivot Points
• Consecutive Price Trends
• Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

My Prediction

I show the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

Not shown but the chart pattern indicator flipped to bearish today (even though it claims to have switched bearish two days ago).

It could mean nothing because the signal can disappear for up to a week, but is usually solid after 3 days. I don't know if the 3-day rule still holds in these turbulent times.

The chart shows a diamond top chart pattern outlined here in the Christmas color of red.

Price broke out upward from the pattern but soon collapsed in what I call a throwback.

This pattern (the throwback) acts like a measured move up when price returns to the corrective phase. After that, it resumes its uptrend. Sorry for throwing out a bunch of pattern names and perhaps confusing you.

The point to remember is that the majority of the time, price resumes its rise. Will this time be different and will price drop instead?

The word on the street is that it finally got spooked at poor earnings. I've been waiting for this for a month. If reports continue to come in that are soft, then the index will continue lower.

Looking at the chart, it suggests price will drop at least one more day (horizontal green line) and after that, who knows? Pay attention to the news and know that the market looks ahead several months (six, I'm told).

A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

For the Week...

Year to Date...

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

Swing and Position Traders: Chart Pattern Indicator

As of 05/01/2020, the CPI had:

The chart pattern indicator is bearish with 2 of 3 half triangles showing (). Additional triangles are a measure of strength with solid triangles meaning a more reliable signal than half triangles.

Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

• Seekinger doesn't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, he considers them oversold (S) and overbought (R) areas.
• S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they lend more significance to the area.
• If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily S1 and daily R1 the next day.
• In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
• A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
• The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
• Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
• Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
• Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1, respectively.

Here are the formulas:

Consecutive Price Trends

How long can an index close higher (or lower) each day? The adjacent table shows how often consecutive up or down closes occur in the indices, based on the most recent trend of closes.

Low percentages suggest the market is overdue to turn (think of it as the likelihood that next week or next month will continue the trend, based on historical performance). Values of 50% mean random, so most percentages will be lower.

The analysis uses data going back 10 years for weekly percentages and 25 years for monthly percentages (or the start of data, whichever is more recent). Any unchanged closing price is interpreted as the end of the string of consecutive up or down closes.

Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Large numbers of bullish or bearish chart patterns can signal short- to intermediate-term market trends (many bullish chart patterns can mean an uptrend will continue, for example). However, please realize that the short-term price trend could have changed since the pattern was discovered (this is especially true of pipe tops or bottoms, which are weekly patterns).

The 10 types of most frequently appearing chart patterns in the stocks, indices, and long-only exchange traded funds I follow during the last month are shown in the adjacent table.

The industries I follow were the best (rank 1) and worst performing.

-- Thomas Bulkowski