As of 09/05/2025
Indus: 45,401 -220.43 -0.5%
Trans: 15,728 -44.62 -0.3%
Utils: 1,079 -0.39 0.0%
Nasdaq: 21,700 -7.30 0.0%
S&P 500: 6,482 -20.58 -0.3%
|
YTD
+6.7%
-1.1%
+9.7%
+12.4%
+10.2%
|
 46,700 or 43,200 by 09/15/202516,700 or 15,200 by 09/15/20251,150 or 1,050 by 09/15/202522,700 or 21,000 by 09/15/20256,700 or 6,300 by 09/15/2025 |
As of 09/05/2025
Indus: 45,401 -220.43 -0.5%
Trans: 15,728 -44.62 -0.3%
Utils: 1,079 -0.39 0.0%
Nasdaq: 21,700 -7.30 0.0%
S&P 500: 6,482 -20.58 -0.3%
|
YTD
+6.7%
-1.1%
+9.7%
+12.4%
+10.2%
| |
|
46,700 or 43,200 by 09/15/202516,700 or 15,200 by 09/15/20251,150 or 1,050 by 09/15/202522,700 or 21,000 by 09/15/20256,700 or 6,300 by 09/15/2025 | ||
Below is the updated forecast for 2025 as of the close on September 2, 2025. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a chart of the Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) on the daily scale.
The CPI has turned bearish today with a reading of 26.8 (below 35 is bearish). The inset shows the indicator line clearly. Over the last week, it's dived, transitioning from bullish to neutral to bearish. Before you panic, remember that signals can change for up to a week, so this bearish signal could turn bullish if we see the markets post a big gain.
The Dow industrials have posted a 6% gain so far this year. The forecast is for a 4% rise. That's without dividends.
The forecast weakness in late August didn't happen as the vertical green line illustrates (forecast dropped as market climbed). The forecast trend from here is upward. I don't know how useful these charts are in Trump world.
This chart is similar to the prior one with weakness in August (behind us) and some in late September, if the forecast is correct. The chart does show that the index will be flat for the next month or so, and we can already see the index going sideways (parallel green lines).
The gain so far this year, at 9%, is above the forecast 6%. If the forecast is correct, look for weakness later this month before a rebound going into year end.
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