As of 09/06/2024
Indus: 40,345 410.34 1.0%
Trans: 15,427 190.44 1.2%
Utils: 1,029 7.87 0.8%
Nasdaq: 16,691 436.83 2.6%
S&P 500: 5,408 94.99 1.7%

YTD
+7.0%
3.0%
+16.7%
+11.2%
+13.4%

42,000 or 39,500 by 09/15/2024
16,200 or 15,300 by 09/15/2024
1,100 or 1,000 by 09/15/2024
18,400 or 16,650 by 09/15/2024
5,750 or 5,375 by 09/15/2024

As of 09/06/2024
Indus: 40,345 410.34 1.0%
Trans: 15,427 190.44 1.2%
Utils: 1,029 7.87 0.8%
Nasdaq: 16,691 436.83 2.6%
S&P 500: 5,408 94.99 1.7%

YTD
+7.0%
3.0%
+16.7%
+11.2%
+13.4%
 
42,000 or 39,500 by 09/15/2024
16,200 or 15,300 by 09/15/2024
1,100 or 1,000 by 09/15/2024
18,400 or 16,650 by 09/15/2024
5,750 or 5,375 by 09/15/2024
 
Updated with new statistics on 12/28/2020.
The third edition of this book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns has a table in most chapters discussing busted pattern performance.
$ $ $
Price can breakout of a symmetrical triangle in any direction. When price moves no more than 10%, reverses direction, and closes beyond the side opposite the breakout, it busts the chart pattern. For testing and safety, I used the top and bottom of the triangle as the price where a stock busts the triangle, not a trendline break. However, the first breakout still uses a trendline break.
Symmetrical triangles with downward breakouts bust 48% of the time in bull markets. I'll discuss additional statistics in Performance.
I show a chart of a single busted symmetrical triangle in Albemarle (ALB) on the daily scale. The symmetrical triangle is highlighted by red trendlines and price crosses the chart pattern from side to side, filling the white space and touching each trendline at least twice (five or more times for both trendlines, total, is best).
Price breaks out of the triangle at A and drops to B. That move (from breakout to low) is less than 10% before price moves back into the chart pattern, pierces the top and closes at C above the top of the triangle (shown by the horizontal green line). When that happens, it busts the symmetrical triangle for the first time. Price continues moving up at least 10%, to D, completing the single busted triangle.
For a single bust, look for:
For the last point, 4, if price fails to move more than 10%, then it could be forming a double busted symmetrical triangle.
The figure to the right shows an example of a double busted symmetrical triangle in Tredegar (TG).
The triangle appears between the red lines. Price pokes its head out the top of the triangle, but that is too early in the chart pattern's development to matter. The breakout comes at A when price closes outside the pattern trendline boundaries. Price rises to B and then reverses, plunging to C. The move from the breakout price at A to B is less than 10%.
When price closes below the bottom green line, it busts the pattern for the first time. The move from the bottom green line to C is less than 10%, so we keep counting the number of busts.
Price rebounds and moves up, closing above the top green line, busting the triangle for the second time. The move isn't over. It climbs to D, moving higher more than 10% above the top green line. That move (more than 10%) ends the search for the busted count. Thus, this pattern is a double busted triangle.
For a double bust, look for these elements.
If price fails to move no more than 10% in the new direction, then it is a triple busted symmetrical triangle.
Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP), pictured on the right, is an example of a triple busted symmetrical triangle.
The triangle is outlined in red on the left of the chart. Price closes above the downsloping trendline at A, staging an upward breakout. Price drifts up to B, but that move is less than 10% from the breakout price. Then the stock drops to C, busting the triangle for the first time. The drop below the bottom green line at C is less than 10%.
Price moves up to D where it closes above the top green line (above the top of the triangle). This busts the triangle for the second time.
The move from the green line to D is less than 10% before price reverses.
Price drops to E. The drop is below the lower green line (the bottom of the triangle), busting it for the third time. If price were to continue dropping by more than 10% below the bottom green line, then the busting count would stop at three. This example continues to bust the triangle (not shown).
For a triple (or more) busted symmetrical triangle, look for the following:
Here's a few statistics from the book. This is for symmetrical triangles with downward breakouts (so they bust upward).
How could you trade a busted symmetrical triangle? The figure on the right gives an example.
A symmetrical triangle appears in November 2010 in Headwaters (HW). Price breaks out downward from this pattern at A by closing outside of the bottom trendline (which is difficult to see in the figure) but quickly reverses.
Price busts the triangle for the first time when price does not drop more than 10% below the breakout price and it closes above the top of the triangle. That happens at B.
In this example, price moves up to C before climbing off the chart.
If you bought the stock the day after it closed above the top of the triangle (day after B), you would have received a fill at 4.25. Selling at the ultimate high in April 2011, at 6.41, would have made you 51%, not including commissions. That would represent a perfect trade.
 Thomas Bulkowski
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