As of 04/24/2024
Indus: 38,461 -42.77 -0.1%
Trans: 15,078 -358.61 -2.3%
Utils: 893 +6.79 +0.8%
Nasdaq: 15,713 +16.11 +0.1%
S&P 500: 5,072 +1.08 +0.0%
|
YTD
+2.0%
-5.2%
+1.3%
+4.7%
+6.3%
|
 39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 |
As of 04/24/2024
Indus: 38,461 -42.77 -0.1%
Trans: 15,078 -358.61 -2.3%
Utils: 893 +6.79 +0.8%
Nasdaq: 15,713 +16.11 +0.1%
S&P 500: 5,072 +1.08 +0.0%
|
YTD
+2.0%
-5.2%
+1.3%
+4.7%
+6.3%
| |
|
39,800 or 37,150 by 05/01/202416,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024885 or 850 by 05/01/202416,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/20245,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024 | ||
Released 11/30/2021.
Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Tuesday November 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.
On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.
This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.
The indicator turned down almost 2 weeks ago by issuing a bearish signal, shown here with the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart.
With today's 652 point drop (1.9%) in the Dow industrials, the CPI is at or near zero (blue line near chart bottom).
This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.
With one month to go, the Dow would really have to drop to catch the prediction. The forecast shows the Dow hitting its low for the year in late September. So far, that low happened in late January.
The forecast low was in September, but actually happened in March. Notice that the forecast predicted the Nasdaq would close the year lower than where it started.
The forecast shows a drop going into December (for about a week) but easing higher for the rest of the month.
Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.
On this chart, I drew a vertical green line to show where the forecast turn in September was compared to the actual. The actual turn was later by about 10 calendar days.
The index was supposed to end the year lower, too. We see the same bumpy entry into December followed by smooth sailing to month's end.
Here's the forecast for 2022
Because the forecast will change depending on where the Dow industrials ends the year, I won't spend much time with it.
The index is forecast to reach a high in March and drop until July. If the forecast is correct, the Dow should end the year lower than where it began.
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