As of 05/20/2022
  Indus: 31,262 +8.77 +0.0%  
  Trans: 13,491 +51.76 +0.4%  
  Utils: 991 +1.46 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,355 -33.88 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,901 +0.57 +0.0%  
YTD
-14.0%  
-18.1%  
 +1.0%  
-27.4%  
-18.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022  
  Up arrow33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow14,700 or 12,400 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 4/21/22
As of 05/20/2022
  Indus: 31,262 +8.77 +0.0%  
  Trans: 13,491 +51.76 +0.4%  
  Utils: 991 +1.46 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,355 -33.88 -0.3%  
  S&P 500: 3,901 +0.57 +0.0%  
YTD
-14.0%  
-18.1%  
 +1.0%  
-27.4%  
-18.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/15/2022  
  Up arrow33,500 or 30,500 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow14,700 or 12,400 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow1,050 or 940 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow12,800 or 11,000 by 06/01/2022
  Up arrow4,150 or 3,700 by 06/01/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 4/21/22

Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast December Update

 

Released 11/30/2021.

Forecast Updated for December 2021

Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Tuesday November 30. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 5
chart pattern indicator

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The indicator turned down almost 2 weeks ago by issuing a bearish signal, shown here with the vertical red bar on the far right of the chart.

With today's 652 point drop (1.9%) in the Dow industrials, the CPI is at or near zero (blue line near chart bottom).

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 5
Dow industrials chart

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red.

With one month to go, the Dow would really have to drop to catch the prediction. The forecast shows the Dow hitting its low for the year in late September. So far, that low happened in late January.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 5
Nasdaq chart

The forecast low was in September, but actually happened in March. Notice that the forecast predicted the Nasdaq would close the year lower than where it started.

The forecast shows a drop going into December (for about a week) but easing higher for the rest of the month.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 5
S and P chart

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

On this chart, I drew a vertical green line to show where the forecast turn in September was compared to the actual. The actual turn was later by about 10 calendar days.

The index was supposed to end the year lower, too. We see the same bumpy entry into December followed by smooth sailing to month's end.

Next 2022 forecast.
5 / 5
2022 forecast chart

Here's the forecast for 2022

Because the forecast will change depending on where the Dow industrials ends the year, I won't spend much time with it.

The index is forecast to reach a high in March and drop until July. If the forecast is correct, the Dow should end the year lower than where it began.

The end.

See Also

 
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