Bulkowski's Blog: ThePatternSite.com
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024
As of 04/12/2024
  Indus: 37,983 -475.84 -1.2%  
  Trans: 15,498 -250.79 -1.6%  
  Utils: 855 -6.47 -0.8%  
  Nasdaq: 16,175 -267.11 -1.6%  
  S&P 500: 5,123 -75.65 -1.5%  
YTD
 +0.8%  
-2.5%  
-3.0%  
 +7.8%  
 +7.4%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/12/2024  
  Up arrow39,800 or 37,700 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,200 or 15,000 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow885 or 850 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow16,700 or 15,800 by 05/01/2024
  Up arrow5,250 or 5,025 by 05/01/2024

June 2021 Headlines

Archives


Wednesday 6/30/21. Indicators: Bearish Divergence

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

Notice the thin line near the bottom of the chart. That's the CPI and it registers 68, a hair above the neutral zone of 65. The CPI is still bullish but showing weakness.

Last week, we had a bearish signal which turned bullish between then and now (Translation: the green vertical bar appeared on the far right of there chart).

The CPI shows weakness even though the index is rising. That's bearish divergence and it's a warning of trouble for bulls.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 14% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 14%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 61% on 07/09/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 11% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 12%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 27% on 07/09/2020.

The more sensitive red line shows no change from a week ago, but the blue line shows weakness. I prefer the red line. Both colored lines show weakness in the last two or three days even though the index has inched higher. Again, that's bearish divergence and it's not a good sign.

Both charts are warning of market weakness. Failure of an index to rise (struggle to rise) means it's probably going to tumble. So tell Scotty in the engine room to get the shields ready.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 180 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, ADTN, AEIS, ALRM, ALK, ALB, AA, ALL, AMED, ANIK, ANTM, AON, AMAT, ARCB, ACGL, ADM, ADP, BCPC, BBBY, BBY, BA, BKNG, EPAY, BBW, CBT, COG, CAL, CPB, CX, CENX, CHKP, CIEN, CL, CONN, GLW, COTY, CREE, CCRN, CMI, CW, DVN, D, EBAY, EMR, EFX, EQT, EL, RE, FICO, FIS, FE, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FCX, FDP, GME, GE, GS, HSC, HQY, HSII, HP, HD, HON, INOV, IIIN, ITGR, IPAR, JAZZ, KMT, KFRC, KSS, LHX, LH, LRCX, LLY, LNC, M, MAN, MRO, MTRX, MDCA, MU, MLHR, CNR, NEU, JWN, OMI, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PRFT, PETS, PFG, PG, PRU, RL, REV, RNG, RES, SEIC, SIGI, SMTC, NOW, SCCO, SWN, SR, SCS, SSYS, SUM, TDC, TXT, TSCO, RIG, TG, SLCA, UNM, VMI, VRTX, VMC, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IAI, IYC, DDM, IYH, IAT, SLV, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EIS, EWI, EWW, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWU, PPA, PBE, IEV, IXC, XLP, XLF, GLD, XHB, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/29/21. Slider Trading Quiz! Alaska Air (3)

The index dropped by -0.4% or -150.57 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 927 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 469 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 458 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 226/400 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alaska Air: ALK 3 stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 155 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AKAM, ALK, ALKS, AEP, AMGN, ANIK, APOG, AGO, ADP, BCPC, BZH, BIIB, BKNG, EPAY, BBW, CBT, COG, CAL, CF, CRL, CIEN, CTXS, CLF, CMTL, COTY, CW, DHR, DECK, XRAY, ^DJT, DRQ, BOOM, EBAY, EMR, EOG, EQT, RE, EXPD, XOM, FIS, FISV, FLEX, FMC, FTNT, FWRD, FRD, GPS, GNW, GPN, GPRO, GES, HSC, HSII, HP, HON, ILMN, INFN, IBKR, IVC, KALU, KELYA, KFRC, KLAC, KSS, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LEG, LEN, LNC, L, MTSI, M, MAN, MRO, MA, MTRN, MDC, MDCA, MGEE, NBR, ^IXIC, NOV, NTGR, NI, OTEX, OMI, OXM, PKE, PETS, PCG, PRU, DGX, RGA, REV, RES, NOW, SWN, RIG, TZOO, TG, VMI, V, VC, WERN, WU, WLK, WSM, WDAY, IAI, IYK, IYC, IYE, IEO, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IYH, IAT, IGV, IGE, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWM, EWT, THD, EWU, PPA, IXN, ILF, XLP, XAR, XLK, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,557.45    
 Weekly S2  32,843.17  285.72   
 Monthly S1  33,420.36  577.19   
 Weekly S1  33,563.22  142.86   
 Weekly Pivot  34,032.12  468.90   
 Daily S2  34,042.83  10.71   Yes! The Daily S2 is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 Monthly Pivot  34,134.84  92.01   
 Daily S1  34,163.05  28.21   
 Low  34,186.13  23.08   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Close  34,283.27  97.14   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,286.79  3.52   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  34,306.35  19.56   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,317.89  11.54   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,348.98  31.09   
 Daily R1  34,426.57  77.59   
 Open  34,428.10  1.53   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 High  34,449.65  21.55   Yes! The High is close to the Open.
 Daily R2  34,569.87  120.22   
 Weekly R1  34,752.17  182.30   
 Monthly R1  34,997.75  245.58   
 Weekly R2  35,221.07  223.32   
 Monthly R2  35,712.23  491.16   

Monday 6/28/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the S and P on the daily scale.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index on the daily scale.

Not much is going on, especially recently. Let's break it down.

Outlined in red is a chart pattern called an ascending broadening wedge. Price breaks out downward 52% of the time from that type of pattern. In this instance, though, the breakout is upward.

Price climbed, leading to pattern A.

However pattern A isn't a broadening top (or any other type of broadening pattern).

Why?

Because there is too much whitespace between the two trendlines. If price had crossed the pattern where the letter A is located, then you'd have a nice looking broadening top. Without that cross, then it looks like price broke out downward from a rising channel (imagine drawing another blue line parallel to the top one).

Besides those two patterns, price is rising and it looks to continue rising in the weeks to come. Unless it doesn't, of course. Smiley

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 586.89 points.
Tuesday: Up 68.61 points.
Wednesday: Down 71.34 points.
Thursday: Up 322.58 points.
Friday: Up 237.02 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 1143.76 points or 3.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 330.01 points or 2.4%.
The S&P 500 index was up 114.25 points or 2.7%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.9% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     15.3% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     0.4% down from the high of 14,414.46 on 06/24/2021.
     15.8% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,286.12 on 06/25/2021.
     16.9% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,230  34,332  34,417  34,518  34,603 
Weekly  32,893  33,664  34,082  34,853  35,271 
Monthly  32,608  33,521  34,185  35,098  35,762 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,264  4,273  4,279  4,287  4,294 
Weekly  4,134  4,207  4,247  4,320  4,359 
Monthly  4,105  4,193  4,240  4,327  4,374 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  14,298  14,329  14,369  14,400  14,440 
Weekly  13,791  14,075  14,245  14,530  14,699 
Monthly  13,128  13,744  14,079  14,695  15,031 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 137 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AYI, AA, AEL, AMWD, APH, APOG, AMAT, ADM, BECN, BZH, BIIB, BKNG, BAH, BRKS, BBW, CBT, CAL, CX, CNC, CHS, CLF, CMTL, CLR, COTY, CRH, DECK, DFS, DRQ, BOOM, WIRE, EPAM, EL, EZPW, FORM, FDP, FRD, GPS, GD, GNW, GES, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HP, HSY, INFN, NSP, IPAR, IVC, JKHY, JAZZ, JBLU, KALU, KBH, LZB, LEN, LMT, M, MRO, MLM, MTRN, MTRX, MDC, MU, NFLX, NTGR, NTAP, NKE, OUT, OMI, OXM, PKE, PRFT, PNW, PPL, RMBS, RES, SAIA, CRM, SIGI, NOW, SKX, SO, SR, STMP, SCS, SRDX, TECH, RIG, TZOO, TREX, VC, WAT, WWW, IYK, IHE, DDM, FTEC, FXI, IYH, EWZ, ECH, EEM, EWH, EIS, EWJ, EWS, EWY, QLD, PPA, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, IXN, ILF, SSO, MXI, XLV, XRT, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Petroleum (Integrated)4. Petroleum (Integrated)
5. Apparel5. Apparel
6. Shoe6. Securities Brokerage
7. Securities Brokerage7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Homebuilding
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Advertising10. Human Resources
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Chemical (Basic)50. Machinery
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Healthcare Information
52. Healthcare Information52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Electric Utility (West)53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Telecom. Equipment55. Electric Utility (West)
56. Computer Software and Svcs56. Telecom. Equipment
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. Chemical (Specialty)58. Chemical (Specialty)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/25/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

I released a new chart pattern called Multi-peak.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 145 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, ADS, AMED, AMN, ANIK, AMAT, ATO, AVNT, BZH, BIIB, BBW, CPB, CX, CHS, CHD, CLF, CMTL, CLR, COST, COTY, CREE, CCRN, CW, ^DJU, ^DJI, D, EOG, EQT, EL, RE, EZPW, FISV, FIVN, FRD, GIS, GS, HOLX, HURC, INFN, NSP, JKHY, JAZZ, JNJ, KBH, KLIC, LB, LHX, LAMR, LEN, LLY, RAMP, M, MRO, MAS, MDC, MDCA, MDT, MU, MUR, ^IXIC, NTGR, NTAP, NEU, OMI, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, POR, PEG, PHM, QCOM, RGS, RCKY, ^GSPC, SAIA, SEE, SIGI, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SHW, SO, SCS, SSYS, SUM, SNPS, TGT, TECH, TFX, TER, TKR, RIG, VFC, VEEV, VMC, WAT, WU, WWW, XEL, IYK, IEO, FTEC, FDN, QTEC, FXL, IYH, IHF, IYZ, SOXX, EWO, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWY, EWP, EWL, EWT, THD, QLD, PBE, PJP, QQQ, IEV, IXN, SSO, SPY, XLK, XLU, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 14 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 2.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

Excluding ETFs, there were 9 bullish chart patterns this week and 1 bearish ones with any remaining (4) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDFlag, high and tight      05/10/202106/24/2021Electronics
AELDiamond top      06/08/202106/24/2021Insurance (Life)
BMIRectangle bottom      03/22/202106/24/2021Precision Instrument
BCPCTriangle, symmetrical      05/06/202106/24/2021Chemical (Specialty)
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202106/24/2021Shoe
FDSTriangle, symmetrical      05/19/202106/24/2021Information Services
FRDFlag, high and tight      04/30/202106/24/2021Building Materials
JKHYCup with handle      04/23/202106/24/2021IT Services
OMIPipe top      06/07/202106/14/2021Medical Supplies
PANWTriangle, ascending      04/15/202106/24/2021Computer Software and Svcs
TECHDiamond top      06/14/202106/24/2021Biotechnology
TREXDouble Bottom, Adam and Adam      06/03/202106/18/2021Building Materials
VCScallop, ascending and inverted      05/19/202106/18/2021Electronics
ZBRARectangle top      02/24/202106/24/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 6/24/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 18.46 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 715 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 318 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 219/384 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

This is a busy chart, so let's go through it starting from the left.

LS is the left shoulder and RS is the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top chart pattern. It confirms as a valid pattern when the index drops below the blue line (neckline). The index dropped to E, fulfilling the measure rule (target) for the pattern.

At CD, a double top appears. It confirms as a valid chart pattern on the way down to F when the index closes below the blue line. This one wasn't as successful as the prior pattern because the drop missed the measure rule target (the height of the pattern subtracted from the breakout price) by about 50 points.

AB is another potential double top. It hasn't confirmed yet because the index hasn't dropped far enough. It seems to be rising following a channel (red parallel lines). Let's see if it'll bounce off the lower red line or drop through it and confirm the double top (it has to close below the price of the lowest valley between the two peaks).

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 125 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AMZN, AMED, AEO, AMN, ANIK, AWI, AVY, AXS, BSET, BERY, BMRN, BOOT, BBW, COG, CALM, CHD, CLF, CMTL, ED, CLR, COST, COTY, CCRN, CCK, CSGS, DECK, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, D, DRQ, EMR, EOG, EPAM, EFX, EVH, FICO, FOE, FE, FMC, FCX, IT, GIS, GES, HSC, HSIC, HSY, DHI, JBHT, IDA, INFN, NSP, JKHY, JAZZ, K, LEN, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MDC, MDCA, MDT, MLI, NOV, CNR, NTGR, NTAP, NWPX, OXY, OMCL, OMI, OXM, PKG, PKE, PDCO, PFE, POR, PINC, PEG, PHM, RGA, RCKY, SAIC, SEE, SEIC, SRE, NOW, SHW, SKX, SO, SCCO, TOL, RIG, UGI, WU, XEL, ITA, IEO, IEZ, IHE, DDM, FXL, IYZ, EWY, EWL, PBE, PXJ, PHO, IEV, XHB, XLI, XLU, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,722.74    
 Monthly S1  13,497.24  774.49   
 Weekly S2  13,831.41  334.17   
 Monthly Pivot  13,846.72  15.31   
 Weekly S1  14,051.57  204.85   
 Weekly Pivot  14,123.89  72.32   
 Daily S2  14,207.20  83.31   
 Daily S1  14,239.47  32.26   
 Low  14,246.30  6.83   Yes! The Low is close to the Daily S1.
 Open  14,263.38  17.08   
 Close  14,271.73  8.35   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  14,273.56  1.83   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Daily Pivot  14,278.56  5.00   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,281.98  3.42   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,290.40  8.42   
 Daily R1  14,310.83  20.43   
 High  14,317.66  6.83   Yes! The High is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  14,344.05  26.39   
 Daily R2  14,349.92  5.87   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  14,416.37  66.45   
 Monthly R1  14,621.22  204.85   
 Monthly R2  14,970.70  349.49   

Wednesday 6/23/21. Indicators: Neutral

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI turned bearish as the chart shows with the vertical red line on the far right. The index dropped, helping to lower the indicator (because signals can change for up to a week).

Since then, the indicator has rebounded (and so has the market). Look at the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart. It's moved into the neutral zone. It looks to be on its way to turning bullish.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 14% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 11%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 64% on 06/24/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 12% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 06/26/2020.

Both red and blue lines took a steep drop from a week ago. You can see that on the chart. They look like check marks.

Such a steep decline suggests the drop hit the broader market hard. If you look back at the prior chart, you can see the index is at about where it was near its peak a week ago. On this chart, though, the red and blue lines remain far below their respective highs.

I think the CPI chart is bullish (or getting there) but this chart is mixed. Maybe my optimism about the CPI chart is overblown and it's wishful thinking. I think the markets will move higher but we won't know if that's the case until it actually rises.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 55 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ADTN, AMZN, BSET, BIG, BIIB, BKNG, BBW, CHS, CLNE, CLF, CMTL, CAG, CSOD, COST, CRH, CTS, DTE, FDS, GME, DHI, JKHY, JAZZ, LEN, MRO, MCHX, MDCA, NTGR, NTAP, NWPX, OMCL, OMI, OXM, PKE, PYPL, PRFT, PCG, RCKY, ROG, NOW, SKX, SWX, STMP, SSYS, WLK, XEL, QTEC, EWS, XLE, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/22/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index climbed by 1.8% or 586.89 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 110 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 66 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 44 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 60.0% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/399 or 56.4% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Alaska Air: ALK 4 stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 108 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AES, APD, ALRM, ALL, DOX, AEL, APH, AAPL, AVA, BBBY, BIIB, CENX, CHS, CINF, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CW, DVN, ^DJT, ^DJI, EIX, EQT, RE, EZPW, FICO, FEYE, FIVN, GL, GS, GES, HNI, HOV, IDXX, ITGR, IBKR, IPG, JKHY, KELYA, KFRC, KMB, LAMR, LANC, LAWS, LDOS, LXU, MAN, MRO, MTRX, MDCA, NBR, NFG, NWPX, OXY, OMCL, OMC, PKE, PTEN, PFE, PG, PEG, REV, RLI, ROST, ^GSPC, SMG, SRE, TJX, TRV, TREX, UGI, UNM, VLO, VMI, WSO, WDAY, XEL, ITA, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, QTEC, IHF, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWK, EWH, EWS, EWU, PPA, PJP, QQQ, IXC, IXN, SSO, XLE, XLV, SPY, XAR, XLK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,422.02    
 Weekly S2  32,673.22  251.20   
 Daily S2  33,103.02  429.81   
 Monthly S1  33,149.49  46.47   Yes! The Monthly S1 is close to the Daily S2.
 Weekly S1  33,275.09  125.60   
 Low  33,312.07  36.98   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Open  33,312.07  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the Low.
 Daily S1  33,490.00  177.93   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  33,539.75  49.75   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily S1.
 50% Down from Intraday High  33,610.08  70.33   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  33,680.41  70.33   
 Daily Pivot  33,699.04  18.63   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Weekly Pivot  33,873.81  174.77   
 Close  33,876.97  3.16   Yes! The Close is close to the Weekly Pivot.
 High  33,908.09  31.12   Yes! The High is close to the Close.
 Monthly Pivot  33,999.41  91.32   
 Daily R1  34,086.02  86.61   
 Daily R2  34,295.06  209.05   
 Weekly R1  34,475.68  180.62   
 Monthly R1  34,726.88  251.20   
 Weekly R2  35,074.40  347.52   
 Monthly R2  35,576.80  502.40   

Monday 6/21/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the bitcoin vs usd on the daily scale.

For grins, I thought I'd download bitcoin (vs USD) and see what the chart looks like. The chart is on the daily scale.

A large head-and-shoulders top appears at LS (left shoulder, Head, RS (right shoulder). When the currency closes below the horizontal red line, it signals a sale.

That would have been a good move, given the scale of the currency and what happened.

The currency dropped to the May low (the first B). Since then, it's moved horizontally and formed an unconfirmed triple bottom. It'll become a real pattern when the currency closes above the highest peak between the three bottoms. I show that (confirmation) at blue line A. As you can see, the currency is falling and not rising up to the blue line.

As of today, it looks as if BTC-USD has more work to do before rising again.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 85.85 points.
Tuesday: Down 94.42 points.
Wednesday: Down 265.66 points.
Thursday: Down 210.22 points.
Friday: Down 533.37 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 1189.52 points or 3.4%.
The Nasdaq composite was down 39.04 points or 0.3%.
The S&P 500 index was down 80.99 points or 1.9%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     5.1% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     11.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     1.3% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     13.2% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     2.1% down from the high of 4,257.16 on 06/15/2021.
     13.8% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  33,044  33,167  33,395  33,518  33,746 
Weekly  32,478  32,884  33,678  34,084  34,879 
Monthly  32,226  32,758  33,804  34,336  35,381 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,138  4,152  4,179  4,193  4,219 
Weekly  4,103  4,135  4,196  4,228  4,289 
Monthly  3,966  4,066  4,162  4,262  4,357 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,936  13,983  14,056  14,103  14,176 
Weekly  13,751  13,891  14,043  14,183  14,336 
Monthly  12,642  13,336  13,766  14,460  14,890 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 219 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ADBE, AFL, ATSG, AA, ALL, AEL, AXP, AIG, ANIK, ANTM, APOG, ATR, ACGL, ADM, ARW, AIZ, AGO, ATO, AVNT, AXS, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BKH, BKNG, BRC, CBT, COG, CLS, CIEN, CINF, CSCO, CLNE, CNA, CNO, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, ED, CAG, COTY, CRH, CTS, CW, XRAY, DVN, DFS, ^DJI, DOV, DTE, EBAY, EMR, EQT, RE, EZPW, FICO, FAST, FEYE, FIVN, FLEX, FDP, IT, GD, GE, GIS, GL, GS, GGG, GES, THG, HIG, HL, HNI, HUBG, JBHT, IDA, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, NVTA, K, KELYA, KFRC, LB, LHX, LAWS, LEG, LNC, L, MAN, MRO, MAS, MGEE, MS, MLI, NFG, NOV, NCR, NFLX, NTGR, NJR, NWPX, NUS, ORI, OMC, ASGN, PKG, PKE, PTEN, PCG, PNW, PPL, PFG, PG, PGR, PRU, PEG, RJF, RGA, ROST, RES, SEIC, SRE, SLGN, SO, SCS, TECH, TXT, TOL, TSCO, TRV, TG, TREX, UGI, UNM, VEEV, WMT, WU, WSM, WWW, XEL, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYC, DDM, IHF, IAT, IYZ, IGV, SLV, IYF, EWO, EWK, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWP, EWD, EWL, THD, TUR, PPA, DBA, PHO, IEV, SSO, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLI, XLB, SPY. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment3. Securities Brokerage
4. Petroleum (Integrated)4. Furn/Home Furnishings
5. Apparel5. Apparel
6. Securities Brokerage6. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Homebuilding
8. Homebuilding8. Cement and Aggregates
9. Cement and Aggregates9. Advertising
10. Human Resources10. Petroleum (Integrated)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Machinery50. Electric Utility (West)
51. Healthcare Information51. Electric Utility (Central)
52. Electric Utility (Central)52. Medical Services
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Computer Software and Svcs
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Electric Utility (West)55. Healthcare Information
56. Telecom. Equipment56. Telecom. Equipment
57. Household Products57. Household Products
58. Chemical (Specialty)58. Chemical (Specialty)
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/18/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 184 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ANF, ACN, AFL, AA, AEL, AIG, AAPL, ATR, AGO, ATO, AVY, AVNT, BSET, BZH, BBBY, BERY, BBW, CACI, CDNS, CAL, CLS, CF, CRL, CHD, CINF, CNO, CMCO, ED, COTY, CRH, CTS, CW, DHR, DVN, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, EMR, WIRE, EPAM, EXPD, FEYE, FE, FIVN, FTNT, FDP, IT, GD, GE, GS, GOOGL, GGG, GES, HIG, HE, HL, HELE, HNI, IDA, ITW, ILMN, NSP, ITGR, ISRG, K, KELYA, KFRC, KSS, LB, LHX, LZB, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LNC, LOW, MHO, M, MRO, MDC, MGEE, MSFT, MCO, MS, MLI, NOV, NCR, NJR, OMCL, OMC, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PYPL, PPL, PFG, PGR, PRU, PEG, RJF, ROK, ROST, RES, SAIC, SEE, SEIC, SRE, SLGN, SWX, SRDX, SNPS, TECH, TFX, TSCO, TG, UNM, VFC, VRSN, WRB, WMT, WU, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IAI, ITB, IHI, DDM, FTEC, QTEC, FXI, ICF, IYH, IAT, SLV, IGE, IYF, EWG, EWI, EWJ, EWW, EWS, EWP, EWD, THD, EWU, DBA, PXJ, PHO, IEV, IXN, MXI, XLF, GLD, XLV, XHB, XLI, XLB, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 29 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 5.1%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 15 bullish chart patterns this week and 9 bearish ones with any remaining (6) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
DDDScallop, ascending and inverted      05/10/202106/16/2021Electronics
AMEDRectangle bottom      05/05/202106/14/2021Medical Services
AVYRectangle top      04/29/202106/14/2021Packaging and Container
BMIRectangle bottom      03/22/202106/17/2021Precision Instrument
BOOTTriangle, symmetrical      05/18/202106/16/2021Shoe
COGTriangle, symmetrical      03/29/202106/16/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
CNCScallop, ascending and inverted      04/28/202106/15/2021Medical Services
EDTriangle, descending      05/05/202106/16/2021Electric Utility (East)
COSTTriangle, descending      05/18/202106/17/2021Retail Store
CCRNScallop, ascending      05/10/202106/17/2021Human Resources
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202106/17/2021Shoe
BOOMDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/04/202106/14/2021Metal Fabricating
FERising wedge      05/10/202106/14/2021Electric Utility (East)
FLEXTriangle, ascending      03/01/202106/16/2021Electronics
GSPipe top      06/01/202106/07/2021Securities Brokerage
HLDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/01/202106/14/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)
HONBroadening top, right-angled and descending      04/16/202106/17/2021Aerospace/Defense
ITGRPipe bottom      06/01/202106/07/2021Electronics
IPGDouble Top, Eve and Eve      06/01/202106/14/2021Advertising
LHXRising wedge      05/10/202106/15/2021Aerospace/Defense
MANRectangle top      05/25/202106/11/2021Human Resources
^IXICTriangle, ascending      02/16/202106/15/2021None
PKEDouble Top, Adam and Adam      06/01/202106/16/2021Chemical (Specialty)
PPLRectangle top      03/24/202106/17/2021Electric Utility (East)
RJFTriangle, descending      05/10/202106/13/2021Securities Brokerage
SWXBroadening top, right-angled and ascending      05/27/202106/17/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
SWNDouble Top, Adam and Eve      06/02/202106/11/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
TGDouble Top, Adam and Adam      05/18/202106/15/2021Chemical (Specialty)
WLKPipe top      06/01/202106/07/2021Chemical (Basic)
ZBRARectangle top      02/24/202106/17/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 6/17/21. Intraday Nasdaq: FED Speed Bump

The index dropped by -0.2% or -33.18 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 524 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 274 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 250 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 52.3% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 218/383 or 56.9% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At point A, the Federal Reserve came out and said don't worry. Be happy. The market nose-dived and planted itself in the ground.

The last few days have broken an up-sloping trendline which I show in red. Often that means a new trend will start but at a more shallow angle. Or it could mean the start of a downtrend.

Indeed, you can connect the peaks on the way down, which I've done with the green line, and show a new downtrend forming. I think the reaction to the FED was a short-term glitch in the market and nothing to worry about. I expect the markets to recover.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 156 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, ACN, AMD, AJRD, AES, AFL, AA, ALKS, AEO, AEP, ANTM, AON, ATR, ATO, AVY, BLL, BAX, BBBY, BERY, CACI, CF, CHD, CL, CONN, COST, CRH, CCK, DVN, ^DJU, ^DJT, ^DJI, DUK, EBAY, EXPD, FEYE, FE, FISV, FIVN, FMC, FORM, FRD, GPN, GS, GOOGL, GGG, GES, HE, HTLD, HELE, HSY, HOLX, DHI, JBHT, IEX, ITW, ITGR, INTC, INTU, NVTA, KLIC, LB, LHX, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LEN, LLY, LOW, MHO, MRO, MAS, MA, MU, MCO, MLI, NCR, NJR, NEE, NI, JWN, NOC, NUS, OMCL, OMC, OTEX, OMI, PKE, PICO, PLXS, PPL, PINC, PG, PGR, PEG, RMBS, RGS, ^GSPC, SAIC, SEE, SRE, SLGN, SO, SWX, TFX, TOL, TG, SLCA, VFC, WMT, WSO, WU, XEL, IYC, ITB, IDU, DDM, FXL, FXI, IYH, IHF, IGE, IYF, EWO, EWH, EWJ, EWW, THD, TUR, EWU, DBA, PHO, ROBO, IEV, XHB, XLI, XLU, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,637.00    
 Monthly S1  13,338.34  701.34   
 Weekly S2  13,680.13  341.79   
 Monthly Pivot  13,703.88  23.75   
 Daily S2  13,798.41  94.53   
 Weekly S1  13,859.91  61.50   
 Low  13,903.73  43.82   
 Daily S1  13,919.04  15.31   Yes! The Daily S1 is close to the Low.
 Weekly Pivot  13,964.66  45.62   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,990.05  25.38   
 50% Down from Intraday High  14,016.71  26.66   
 Daily Pivot  14,024.37  7.66   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  14,039.68  15.31   Yes! The Close is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  14,043.37  3.69   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Close.
 Open  14,085.55  42.18   
 High  14,129.69  44.14   
 Weekly R1  14,144.44  14.75   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the High.
 Daily R1  14,145.00  0.57   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Weekly R1.
 Weekly R2  14,249.19  104.19   
 Daily R2  14,250.33  1.13   Yes! The Daily R2 is close to the Weekly R2.
 Monthly R1  14,405.22  154.89   
 Monthly R2  14,770.76  365.54   

Wednesday 6/16/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI chart is still bullish despite turning bearish yesterday, I think it was. You can see the dip in the thin blue line near the bottom of the chart. Today's movement added enough bullish NR7s to the mix to turn the signal bullish again and erase the bearish signal.

As always, a signal can change for up to a week but is usually stable after 3 days.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 11% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 12%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 64% on 06/24/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 10% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 9%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 06/26/2020.

This week shows a contradiction in the stats. The red line is more bullish than it was a week ago but the blue line is more bearish. I trust the red line because it's more sensitive.

Let's pretend the red line is correct, that things are improving. The CPI chart is bullish and so is this one. So that's two votes for a continuation of the up move and none against.

The aye's have it.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 134 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ANF, AMD, AJRD, ALRM, AA, AMED, AMN, AON, ACGL, ADSK, AVY, BSET, BAX, BBBY, BERY, BIIB, BKH, BG, CNC, CF, CSCO, CAG, CONN, GLW, CCRN, CTS, DVN, EPAM, EXC, FAST, FDX, FEYE, FIVN, FCX, GPS, GIS, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GES, THG, HSII, HOLX, HOV, HURC, ITW, NSP, ITGR, INTC, INTU, IVC, NVTA, K, KELYA, KSS, LB, LHX, LAWS, LEG, LLY, LMT, LOW, M, MRO, MCHX, MDCA, MGEE, MLI, NOV, NFLX, NJR, NXGN, JWN, NWPX, OMCL, OTEX, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PPL, PFG, PGR, RGS, SMG, SRE, SCCO, SXI, TFX, TXT, TSCO, TG, SLCA, WERN, WU, WEX, WWW, ZBRA, DDM, FTEC, FXL, FXI, IYH, IGV, EWA, EWQ, EWH, EZA, EWP, EWL, TUR, ROBO, IEV, MXI, XLY, XLP, XAR, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/15/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.2% or -85.85 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 1219 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 615 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 604 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.5% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/398 or 56.5% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Apache: APA stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 151 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, ANF, ADBE, APD, ALRM, AA, AYX, AMZN, AEL, AMWD, ATR, AGO, AVY, AVNT, BECN, BIG, BIIB, BG, CLS, CNC, CENX, CRL, CHD, CNA, CAG, CONN, GLW, CROX, XRAY, DVN, DDS, ^DJT, ^DJI, DOV, BOOM, EBAY, EIX, WIRE, EQT, EXC, EXPD, EZPW, FICO, FDX, FMC, GD, GE, GL, GPRO, GES, HBI, HQY, DHI, HOV, ITW, INCY, IPAR, IPG, IPI, JBLU, KELYA, KSS, LZB, LAWS, LEG, LXU, MHO, M, MRO, MDC, MDCA, MOS, MLI, NCR, NJR, NEU, NXGN, NI, JWN, NWPX, OMCL, PKE, PDCO, PFG, PGR, KWR, QCOM, RNG, RCKY, CRM, SRE, SLGN, SCCO, SWX, SR, SXI, TFX, TDC, TRV, TG, SLCA, VMI, VRTX, WERN, WU, WEX, WMB, WWW, ITA, ITB, IHI, DDM, BOTZ, IAT, IGV, IYF, EWZ, EIS, EWI, EWM, EWP, EWT, TUR, MXI, XHB, XLI, XLB. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

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The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,701.94    
 Monthly S1  33,547.85  845.90   
 Weekly S2  34,022.18  474.33   
 Daily S2  34,098.29  76.11   
 Weekly S1  34,207.96  109.68   
 Low  34,211.54  3.57   Yes! The Low is close to the Weekly S1.
 Daily S1  34,246.02  34.48   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,311.23  65.21   
 Monthly Pivot  34,319.70  8.47   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,342.03  22.33   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Monthly Pivot.
 Daily Pivot  34,359.27  17.24   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,372.82  13.55   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Close  34,393.75  20.93   Yes! The Close is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 High  34,472.52  78.77   
 Open  34,472.52  0.00   Yes! The Open is close to the High.
 Daily R1  34,507.00  34.48   
 Weekly Pivot  34,514.44  7.44   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily R1.
 Daily R2  34,620.25  105.81   
 Weekly R1  34,700.22  79.97   
 Weekly R2  35,006.70  306.47   
 Monthly R1  35,165.61  158.91   
 Monthly R2  35,937.46  771.86   

Monday 6/14/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Nasdaq on the daily scale.

I show the Nasdaq composite on the daily scale.

I drew one line along the peaks and one along the valleys to highlight a potential ascending triangle.

The index has to form a minor low above A, at the red line, to score 5 touches of the two trendlines. That's the minimum I'm looking for. Right now, the pattern isn't a defined chart pattern. Rather, it's just squiggles on the screen.

If it does score another touch, then the chance of breaking out upward is 63% according to my new book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition.

We might see that in about a week's time.


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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Down 126.15 points.
Tuesday: Down 30.42 points.
Wednesday: Down 152.68 points.
Thursday: Up 19.1 points.
Friday: Up 13.36 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were down 276.79 points or 0.8%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 254.93 points or 1.8%.
The S&P 500 index was up 17.55 points or 0.4%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.7% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     15.5% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     1.0% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     13.5% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.1% down from the high of 4,249.74 on 06/10/2021.
     16.0% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

Many options expire this week, so traders will be looking to close out their positions, and that suggests increased volatility (large daily price swings).

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,186  34,333  34,475  34,622  34,765 
Weekly  34,051  34,265  34,543  34,757  35,035 
Monthly  32,731  33,605  34,348  35,223  35,966 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,227  4,237  4,243  4,253  4,259 
Weekly  4,194  4,221  4,235  4,262  4,277 
Monthly  3,992  4,120  4,185  4,312  4,378 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,986  14,028  14,048  14,090  14,111 
Weekly  13,690  13,880  13,975  14,164  14,259 
Monthly  12,647  13,358  13,714  14,425  14,781 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 99 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACIW, AEIS, APD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AEO, AMGN, ACGL, BCPC, BAX, BIIB, EPAY, COG, CAL, CHD, CL, COTY, CRH, XRAY, ^DJT, DRQ, EQT, FDS, FDX, FOE, FCX, GGG, HBI, HSII, HELE, HSY, HOV, HUBG, INCY, IVC, JAZZ, LB, LZB, LH, LAWS, LOW, MHO, MRO, MCHX, MTRX, MDCA, MDT, MGEE, NBR, NJR, NXGN, NWPX, OGE, OMCL, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PLXS, PGR, DGX, RJF, RCKY, ROST, SAIA, SIGI, SRE, NOW, SR, SXI, SRDX, TJX, TG, SLCA, WMT, WLK, WDAY, IAI, IYC, IDU, IAT, IGE, EWZ, EWC, EWS, IXC, IXN, ILF, UNG, SMH. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
3. Securities Brokerage3. Petroleum (Producing)
4. Furn/Home Furnishings4. Securities Brokerage
5. Apparel5. Petroleum (Integrated)
6. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment6. Homebuilding
7. Homebuilding7. Furn/Home Furnishings
8. Cement and Aggregates8. Apparel
9. Advertising9. Human Resources
10. Petroleum (Integrated)10. Cement and Aggregates
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Electric Utility (West)50. Precision Instrument
51. Electric Utility (Central)51. Telecom. Equipment
52. Medical Services52. Electric Utility (West)
53. Computer Software and Svcs53. Electric Utility (Central)
54. Electric Utility (East)54. Computer Software and Svcs
55. Healthcare Information55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Telecom. Equipment56. Healthcare Information
57. Household Products57. Chemical (Specialty)
58. Chemical (Specialty)58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/11/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 154 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, AMED, ANIK, ANTM, ASH, ADP, AVNT, BCPC, BLL, BBY, BIO, BIIB, BOOT, CDNS, CAL, CE, CRL, CTXS, CGNX, CL, CMTL, CAG, COP, COTY, CRH, CROX, CCRN, DHR, DVN, ^DJT, DOV, DRQ, DTE, EXP, EQT, EXC, XOM, FFIV, FIVN, FTNT, GME, GNW, GS, GOOGL, GGG, HSC, HIG, HSY, HNI, HON, DHI, HOV, HUBG, JBHT, ILMN, IBP, TILE, JCOM, JBLU, KBH, LZB, LAWS, LEG, LEN, L, LOW, MHO, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MTRX, MDC, MDCA, MS, MLI, NOV, NTAP, NXGN, JWN, NUS, OGE, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PYPL, PETS, PNW, PLXS, PGR, KWR, RCKY, ROG, ROST, CRM, SRE, SCCO, LUV, SXI, SUM, TDOC, TPX, TER, TOL, SLCA, UGI, UPS, VEEV, VMC, WU, ITB, IEO, IEZ, QTEC, ICF, IAT, IGV, SLV, IGE, EWA, EWO, EWC, EWG, EWH, EWJ, EWS, EWY, EWP, EWL, EWU, PJP, IXN, MXI, XHB, XAR, UNG. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 31 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 574 stocks searched, or 5.4%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 2 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 19 bullish chart patterns this week and 3 bearish ones with any remaining (11) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is bullish.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
MMMDiamond top      05/27/202106/10/2021Diversified Co.
ATSGDiamond bottom      05/27/202106/09/2021Air Transport
ACGLTriangle, descending      05/21/202106/10/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ATOScallop, descending      05/10/202106/04/2021Natural Gas (Diversified)
AVYRectangle top      04/29/202106/10/2021Packaging and Container
BMIRectangle bottom      03/22/202106/10/2021Precision Instrument
BIIBPipe bottom      05/24/202106/01/2021Biotechnology
BMRNScallop, ascending      05/21/202106/10/2021Biotechnology
CERectangle top      05/05/202106/08/2021Chemical (Basic)
CNATriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202106/07/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202106/10/2021Shoe
DDSFlag, high and tight      04/20/202106/10/2021Retail Store
^DJUTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202106/08/2021None
DTETriangle, symmetrical      04/28/202106/10/2021Electric Utility (Central)
FASTTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202106/10/2021Retail Building Supply
FLSRising wedge      03/18/202106/10/2021Machinery
HLITScallop, descending      05/03/202106/10/2021Telecom. Equipment
HELETriangle, symmetrical      03/25/202106/08/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
HOVPipe top      06/01/202106/01/2021Homebuilding
RAMPTriangle, ascending      04/29/202106/08/2021Computer Software and Svcs
MANRectangle top      05/25/202106/10/2021Human Resources
MROCup with handle      03/05/202106/10/2021Petroleum (Integrated)
MRKBroadening bottom      03/18/202106/08/2021Drug
MGEERoof, inverted      04/16/202106/10/2021Electric Utility (Central)
OMCTriangle, symmetrical      05/17/202106/07/2021Advertising
PDCOPipe bottom      05/24/202106/01/2021Medical Supplies
PPLRectangle top      03/24/202106/10/2021Electric Utility (East)
RGSScallop, descending      04/29/202106/09/2021Toiletries/Cosmetics
RNGUgly double bottom      05/17/202106/04/2021Computer Software and Svcs
SRERoof      04/28/202106/08/2021Electric Utility (West)
SRScallop, descending      05/10/202106/10/2021Natural Gas (Distributor)
WSOTriangle, symmetrical      05/17/202106/10/2021Retail Building Supply
ZBRARectangle top      02/24/202106/10/2021Computers and Peripherals

 

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Thursday 6/10/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index dropped by -0.1% or -13.16 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 613 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.8% on 342 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 271 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.8% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 217/382 or 56.8% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

At ABC, the composite formed a not-so-nice looking triple top. The pattern is supposed to have three peaks near the same price. Peaks A and B are not too bad but C is farther away.

Circled in blue is a pattern I'm studying now which I call a multi-peak. That's a four (or more) peak pattern. I thought it might hold the key to detecting trend changes, but it appears to be no more successful than many other chart patterns.

On the far right, in red, is an inverted and descending scallop. It suggests price is starting to move lower in a stair-step move.

From Tuesday, it looks like the composite is forming a top, so I'm leaning toward the index dropping lower in the coming days. However, the above probabilities suggest there's a slight bias toward an upward move on Thursday.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 161 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AYI, AJRD, AKAM, ALRM, ALK, ALKS, DOX, AMED, ANIK, AWI, ARW, BECN, BZH, BBY, BIIB, BMRN, EPAY, BRC, COG, CPB, CE, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CTSH, CMCO, CMTL, CSOD, GLW, COTY, CR, CW, DVN, ^DJT, DOV, DTE, EFX, EXC, FFIV, FAST, FOE, FMC, GNW, GS, GGG, GFF, HIG, HNI, HON, HOV, HUBG, INCY, IBP, IIIN, TILE, JCOM, JAZZ, JBLU, K, KMB, LB, LAWS, LEG, LEN, L, LOW, MHO, MTSI, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MA, MDC, MDCA, MU, MLI, MUR, NOV, NFLX, NJR, NWL, NXGN, NI, OXY, OUT, OMI, PANW, PKE, PATK, PDCO, PNW, PLXS, PPL, PFG, PG, KWR, QCOM, ROG, RES, SAIA, CRM, SRE, SCCO, LUV, STMP, SXI, SSYS, TPX, TREX, SLCA, UNM, VLO, ZBRA, IYK, IYC, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IHF, IGE, IYF, EWK, EIS, EWW, EZA, EWY, EWL, THD, PPA, PBE, PXJ, PHO, XLY, GLD, XLV, XHB, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,584.13    
 Monthly S1  13,247.94  663.81   
 Weekly S2  13,478.36  230.42   
 Monthly Pivot  13,666.35  187.99   
 Weekly S1  13,695.06  28.71   
 Weekly Pivot  13,765.61  70.56   
 Daily S2  13,843.52  77.90   
 Daily S1  13,877.63  34.12   
 Low  13,906.45  28.82   
 Close  13,911.75  5.30   Yes! The Close is close to the Low.
 Daily Pivot  13,940.57  28.82   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,943.52  2.96   Yes! The 61.8% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,954.97  11.45   
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,966.43  11.45   
 Daily R1  13,974.68  8.26   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Open  13,980.23  5.55   Yes! The Open is close to the Daily R1.
 Weekly R1  13,982.31  2.08   Yes! The Weekly R1 is close to the Open.
 High  14,003.50  21.19   
 Daily R2  14,037.62  34.12   
 Weekly R2  14,052.86  15.25   
 Monthly R1  14,330.16  277.30   
 Monthly R2  14,748.57  418.41   

Wednesday 6/9/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The CPI remains bullish this week. It's well beyond the point where a violent market move might change the signal. That can happen for up to a week (calendar).

The CPI signal near the bottom of the chart has pushed toward the top of the band (100). I think it's at 77 now, above the 65 threshold for bullish signals.

Let's look at the next chart to see what it says.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 12% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 12%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 64% on 06/11/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 466 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 9%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 06/26/2020.

The two lines have the same reading as a week ago. That's true of the red line, which is the more sensitive of the two. It suggests the market is searching for direction and coasting upward.

That lack of upward momentum is of concern. It's like a rocket that runs out of gas. It continues higher, coasting, rounds over and then topples. We'll have to wait and see if that's what happens to the markets.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 138 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ABT, AJRD, APD, ATSG, AKAM, ALRM, AEP, AMGN, APH, AON, ATO, BAX, BERY, BIIB, BRC, BMY, CACI, CNP, CVX, CHD, CNA, CAG, CSOD, XRAY, DDS, DTE, DUK, BOOM, EMR, EOG, EQT, FOE, FLEX, FLS, FMC, GIS, GNW, GS, GPRO, GGG, HLIT, HSC, HSY, HOV, ITW, KFRC, KMB, KLAC, KSS, LH, LAWS, LEG, L, MTSI, MAN, MRO, MDCA, MDT, MU, MLHR, MS, NBR, NFLX, NWL, NEU, NXGN, NUS, OMC, OUT, OXM, PANW, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PFE, POR, PPG, PPL, PINC, PG, PGR, RGS, REV, RHI, RCKY, ROG, RES, CRM, SAIC, SRE, SMTC, SLGN, SO, SUM, SRDX, TFX, TXN, SLCA, VFC, VLO, WMT, WEX, IYK, IYE, IEO, IDU, DDM, FXI, IYZ, IGE, EWK, EZA, EWL, THD, IXC, IXN, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XAR, XLU, UNG, USO. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/8/21. Slider Trading Quiz!

The index dropped by -0.4% or -126.15 points. Since 10/01/1928 the index made 925 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.7% on 468 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.7% on 457 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 50.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 225/397 or 56.7% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 42/87 or 48.3% of the time.

$ $ $

I show another slider trading quiz featuring Apogee Enterprises: APOG stock.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 135 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: MMM, ACIW, ADTN, APD, ATSG, AA, ALL, DOX, AEP, AEL, AMN, APH, AON, AGO, AVY, BCPC, BAX, BIG, BIIB, BKNG, EPAY, BLDR, CBT, CHD, CINF, CTXS, CLNE, CLF, CNA, CAG, CRH, CMI, CW, DOV, BOOM, EMN, EIX, EMR, EFX, FAST, FIS, FLEX, FLS, GME, GE, GIS, GS, HIG, HELE, HP, HSIC, HSY, IEX, ITW, INFN, IBKR, IVC, KALU, LHX, LH, LAWS, LLY, RAMP, MRO, MRTN, MAS, MA, MDCA, MCO, MS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, CNR, NEU, NWPX, OGE, OUT, OMI, PKE, PDCO, PTEN, PNW, PPG, PFG, PGR, PEG, PHM, RGS, RGA, REV, SAIC, SLGN, SXI, TFX, TEVA, TOL, VMI, VC, WMT, WAT, IAI, ITB, DDM, IAT, IGE, IYF, EWO, ECH, EWQ, EWG, EWI, EWW, EWS, EWL, TUR, PXJ, PJP, ROBO, IEV, IXC, XLP, XLF, XAR. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Dow industrials, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

Top

© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  32,780.77    
 Monthly S1  33,705.51  924.73   
 Weekly S2  34,089.75  384.24   
 Weekly S1  34,359.99  270.25   
 Monthly Pivot  34,398.54  38.54   
 Daily S2  34,428.82  30.29   
 Daily S1  34,529.53  100.71   
 Low  34,574.51  44.98   
 Weekly Pivot  34,604.66  30.14   
 Close  34,630.24  25.58   
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  34,668.64  38.40   
 Daily Pivot  34,675.22  6.58   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 61.8% Down from Intraday High.
 50% Down from Intraday High  34,697.71  22.49   Yes! The 50% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  34,726.79  29.07   
 Open  34,766.20  39.41   
 Daily R1  34,775.93  9.73   Yes! The Daily R1 is close to the Open.
 High  34,820.91  44.98   
 Weekly R1  34,874.90  53.99   
 Daily R2  34,921.62  46.72   
 Weekly R2  35,119.57  197.95   
 Monthly R1  35,323.27  203.70   
 Monthly R2  36,016.29  693.03   

Monday 6/7/21. Market Monday: The Week Ahead

My Prediction

Picture of the Dow industrials on the daily scale.

This is a pic of the Dow industrials on the daily chart. What can we see?

All of the colored lines are variations of scallops. The red, blue, and orange lines are ascending and inverted scallops. The ends of those patterns are above the start and they have a nice arc between the two points. Usually I look for that arc on the tops of the patterns. In this case, I show it on the bottom.

The green pattern is an ascending scallop where the end is above the start, with a nice rounded turn in between. In this case, I drew the green line along price highs when I usually look for the curve along the lows.

The orange and green lines begin to frame a diamond top chart pattern, but it looked odd enough that I didn't have the courage to publicly call it a diamond.

So there you have it. None of the patterns tell what's going to happen. Sometimes with scallops (of any type), a series of them appearing in the same uptrend like you see here with the red, blue, and orange patterns, you see them getting either narrower/shorter or wider/taller as price climbs the trend. When that happens, look for a trend change especially if the last scallop in the series has nearly equally priced ends.

With these three, they have inconsistent sizes, so I don't attach any significance to their appearance.

I guess what I'm saying is look for the uptrend to continue.

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Tuesday: Up 45.86 points.
Wednesday: Up 25.07 points.
Thursday: Down 23.34 points.
Friday: Up 179.35 points.
Saturday: Holiday or other weird event!

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 226.94 points or 0.7%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 65.75 points or 0.5%.
The S&P 500 index was up 25.78 points or 0.6%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.0% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     16.4% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     2.8% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     11.4% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.2% down from the high of 4,238.04 on 05/07/2021.
     15.5% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,562  34,659  34,716  34,813  34,869 
Weekly  34,132  34,444  34,647  34,959  35,162 
Monthly  32,823  33,790  34,441  35,407  36,058 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,196  4,213  4,223  4,240  4,251 
Weekly  4,144  4,187  4,211  4,253  4,277 
Monthly  3,994  4,112  4,175  4,293  4,356 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,643  13,729  13,778  13,864  13,913 
Weekly  13,446  13,630  13,733  13,917  14,020 
Monthly  12,552  13,183  13,634  14,265  14,716 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is over.

Here's a symbol list of 129 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: AKAM, ALK, AA, DOX, AMED, AEO, AEL, ABC, APH, ANTM, AON, ADM, AXS, CALM, CPB, CLS, CNC, CNP, CHS, CLF, CLX, CSOD, GLW, CREE, DECK, ^DJT, BOOM, FDX, FIVN, FLEX, FLS, FORM, FTNT, FWRD, GPS, GE, GNW, GOOGL, HBI, HE, HP, HUBG, HURC, IEX, INFN, INOV, ITGR, INTU, JBLU, KALU, KELYA, KLAC, LHX, LH, LAWS, LMT, LOW, MRO, MLM, MTRN, MU, MS, MUR, NOV, NJR, NWPX, NUS, OXY, OMCL, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PNW, PINC, DGX, RGS, SLB, SMG, SEE, SRE, SCCO, LUV, SR, TEVA, TXN, UGI, UPS, VMC, WERN, ZBRA, IAI, IDU, QTEC, FXL, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IAT, IGV, IGE, EWK, EWZ, ECH, EWJ, EZA, PXJ, PJP, ILF, XLP, XLV, XAR, XLK, XLU. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Petroleum (Producing)3. Securities Brokerage
4. Securities Brokerage4. Apparel
5. Petroleum (Integrated)5. Homebuilding
6. Homebuilding6. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
7. Furn/Home Furnishings7. Cement and Aggregates
8. Apparel8. Furn/Home Furnishings
9. Human Resources9. Shoe
10. Cement and Aggregates10. Petroleum (Integrated)
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Precision Instrument50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Telecom. Equipment51. Telecom. Equipment
52. Electric Utility (West)52. E-Commerce
53. Electric Utility (Central)53. Healthcare Information
54. Computer Software and Svcs54. Electric Utility (Central)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Electric Utility (East)
56. Healthcare Information56. Electric Utility (West)
57. Chemical (Specialty)57. Chemical (Specialty)
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Friday 6/4/21. Pattern Trading Setups for the Weekend.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 103 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ACN, AA, ALKS, DOX, AMED, AEL, ADM, AIZ, AVY, AXS, BMI, BLL, BAX, BBBY, BMY, CLS, CX, CNP, CRL, CIEN, CLNE, CLF, CLX, CONN, CLGX, GLW, DFS, ^DJT, DOV, BOOM, EFX, EXPD, FIVN, FLEX, GPS, GOOGL, GGG, HBI, HON, HUBG, IIIN, IBKR, JCOM, KALU, KFRC, LZB, LAWS, MANH, MAN, MRO, MAS, MDT, MRK, MGEE, MS, MLI, NWPX, OXY, OUT, PKE, PATK, PETS, PNW, RCKY, SLB, SMG, SRE, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SRDX, TPR, TXT, TKR, RIG, VC, WERN, WDAY, XEL, IYM, IAI, IDU, IHF, ECH, EWH, EWP, TUR, PXJ, PJP, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLB, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

You can find setups based on a Fibonacci retrace by clicking on the link.

The following patterns were found manually, not using Patternz. Mr. Bulkowski has excluded any securities he owns from appearing in the list. However, he may add any of the securities listed to his portfolio at any time, just as you can.

There were 17 patterns found this week (excluding pipe bottoms; pipe tops and bottoms are found looking back 2 weeks) out of 575 stocks searched, or 3.0%. Based on the percentage, the stock market is trending since few consolidation patterns appear.

I found 1 pipe bottom chart patterns, which is neutral. High numbers of pipe bottoms can signal a bullish move (I see many of them just before a bear market ends or during a bear market rally. Often it means the first bottom of a double bottom has formed. Thus, expect a move down to the second bottom).

Excluding ETFs, there were 12 bullish chart patterns this week and 4 bearish ones with any remaining (2) being undecided. The ratio of bullish to bearish patterns suggests the market is hinting of a coming bullish (up) turn.

In the table below, the red and green colors are based on the historical breakout direction for the associated chart pattern. If a high and tight flag appears, the start and end dates highlight the flagpole only and not the flag.

For details about the chart patterns, click here.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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 Symbol  Chart Pattern  Bullish 
 Bearish 
Start End Industry
AONTriangle, symmetrical      05/10/202106/03/2021Insurance (Diversified)
AIZRectangle top      04/30/202106/03/2021Insurance (Diversified)
CACITriangle, symmetrical      04/29/202106/01/2021IT Services
CPBTriangle, descending      04/05/202106/03/2021Food Processing
CERectangle top      05/05/202106/03/2021Chemical (Basic)
CHSFlag, high and tight      04/20/202106/03/2021Apparel
CIENUgly double bottom      05/12/202105/28/2021Telecom. Equipment
CINFTriangle, ascending      05/10/202105/28/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
CSODUgly double bottom      05/11/202106/01/2021E-Commerce
DHRTriple top      04/23/202105/28/2021Precision Instrument
DECKRectangle top      02/02/202106/03/2021Shoe
BOOMPipe bottom      05/17/202105/24/2021Metal Fabricating
GPNTriangle, descending      05/11/202105/28/2021Computer Software and Svcs
GFFRectangle bottom      05/12/202106/03/2021Building Materials
LXUTriangle, symmetrical      05/18/202106/03/2021Building Materials
ORITriangle, ascending      05/10/202106/01/2021Insurance (Prop/Casualty)
ROKRectangle top      03/10/202106/02/2021Diversified Co.
SLCADead-cat bounce      05/28/202105/28/2021Metals and Mining (Div.)

 

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Thursday 6/3/21. Intraday Market Direction: Nasdaq

The index climbed by 0.1% or 19.85 points. Since 02/05/1971 the index made 714 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's...
     Average gain was 0.6% on 397 occasions.
     Average loss was -0.8% on 317 occasions.
Expect the index to close higher 55.6% of the time.
Weekly, since inception on 6/14/2011:
     The prediction of the index closing higher has been right 217/381 or 57.0% of the time.
     The prediction of the index closing lower has been right 58/122 or 47.5% of the time.

Since I post this the night before, check how the futures are trading before market open. Large moves can affect the opening direction.

Picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5 minute scale.

$ $ $

I show a picture of the Nasdaq composite on the 5-minute scale.

I drew the bottom red line first because I noticed multiple points (valleys) resting on it. The line shows support. Along the top, I noticed that there was another trend, this one upward but shorter than the bottom one.

The two lines form a mouthful: broadening formation, right-angled and ascending chart pattern. A partial rise at point A suggests a downward breakout.

The index should have closed below the bottom red line at B but it didn't. Tests show a partial rise correct predicts a downward breakout 74% of the time from this type of broadening pattern.

Now, it looks as if the index is rising which also agrees with the above probabilities.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 166 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: DDD, AYI, AES, AFL, ATSG, AA, DOX, AEO, AEL, AIG, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, AWI, AGO, ADP, AVY, AVNT, BCPC, BSET, BECN, BBBY, BERY, BMRN, BKNG, BMY, CBT, CE, CX, CNP, CRL, CHKP, CHS, CLF, CMCO, CCK, CMI, CW, DHR, DECK, DDS, ^DJT, BOOM, EXP, EL, EXPD, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FDP, GME, GPN, GOOGL, GGG, GFF, HBI, HAYN, HELE, HP, HSIC, HON, HUBG, HURC, IDXX, ILMN, INOV, IBP, ITGR, IPAR, INTU, ISRG, JAZZ, KALU, KBH, KMT, KFRC, LAMR, LAWS, LEG, LEN, MTSI, MANH, MRO, MAS, MA, MDT, MLI, NBR, CNR, NTGR, NEU, NKE, NWPX, NVDA, OLN, ASGN, OUT, OXM, PKE, PATK, PTEN, PAYX, PETS, PICO, POR, QCOM, REV, RCKY, RES, SAIA, NOW, SLGN, SCCO, SCS, SRDX, TGT, TECH, TXT, TKR, TJX, SLCA, UPS, VEEV, WRB, WMT, WERN, WSM, IYM, IYE, ITB, IHI, BOTZ, ICF, IYZ, EWA, EWK, ECH, EWH, EWJ, PEJ, PJP, ILF, XLE, XLV, XLB, XAR, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

$ $ $

The following table shows where Fibonacci retrace values of the day's high-low range are plus pivot points, calculated on the Nasdaq composite, sorted by value. When several are near each other (small differences), the area might act as support or resistance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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© 2021 ThePatternSite.com    Metric  Value  Diff  Close (within 10% of the high-low range for the day)? 
 Monthly S2  12,447.78    
 Monthly S1  13,102.06  654.27   
 Weekly S2  13,439.54  337.49   
 Weekly S1  13,597.94  158.39   
 Daily S2  13,654.50  56.57   
 Monthly Pivot  13,656.81  2.31   Yes! The Monthly Pivot is close to the Daily S2.
 Low  13,689.74  32.93   
 Daily S1  13,705.42  15.68   
 Weekly Pivot  13,709.40  3.99   Yes! The Weekly Pivot is close to the Daily S1.
 61.8% Down from Intraday High  13,722.65  13.25   
 50% Down from Intraday High  13,732.82  10.17   
 Daily Pivot  13,740.65  7.84   Yes! The Daily Pivot is close to the 50% Down from Intraday High.
 38.2% Down from Intraday High  13,742.98  2.33   Yes! The 38.2% Down from Intraday High is close to the Daily Pivot.
 Open  13,743.24  0.26   Yes! The Open is close to the 38.2% Down from Intraday High.
 Close  13,756.33  13.09   
 High  13,775.89  19.56   
 Daily R1  13,791.57  15.68   
 Daily R2  13,826.80  35.24   
 Weekly R1  13,867.80  40.99   
 Weekly R2  13,979.26  111.47   
 Monthly R1  14,311.09  331.82   
 Monthly R2  14,865.84  554.76   

Wednesday 6/2/21. A Look At Indicators

Picture of the chart pattern indicator

This is a picture of the chart pattern indicator on the daily scale. The indicator is the line chart below a chart of the S&P 500 composite.

The bullish signal, shown as the vertical green bar, is intact. It can change for up to a week, but it's usually stable after 3 days. The signal looks 4 trading days old, or probably like 6 calendar days old. So it's probably reliable.

The market has moved higher, but slowly, as if it's searching for a path. Coupled with overhead resistance from the recent high, I still don't trust it. I think the market is going lower.

That's just a feeling, so I could be wrong. But it seems that the market is struggling to move up.

Picture of the percent down indicators

The red line is the percentage of stocks at least 20% below their 1-year high (plotted upside down). The blue line is the average percentage drop of stocks below their 1-year high (plotted upside down).

Shown as a red line on the above chart...
On Tuesday, 12% of stocks in my database are in bear market territory (down at least 20% from their 1-year high).
A week ago, it was 13%.
The fewest was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the most was 64% on 06/11/2020.
Shown as a blue line on the above chart...
The 467 stocks in my database are down an average of 9% from their yearly high.
A week ago, the average was 10%.
The peak was 8% on 03/15/2021.
And the bottom was 28% on 06/26/2020.

Both the red and blue lines showed improvement compared to a week ago. So that's bullish.

The prior chart and this one are bullish. The red line on this chart is the more sensitive of the two, and it's rising. That's a bullish sign. So I don't understand my concern about the market falling. Maybe that's how a market rises...on worry that it'll drop.

$ $ $

Have you removed the dust from your refrigerator cooling coils recently? I did that this weekend. I unplugged the fridge from the wall, removed the back panel and used my vacuum cleaner to suck up as much dust as possible. I also used a brush that was thin but long, about half inch wide and six inches long. The brush fit perfectly between several folds in the coils. Another tour with the vacuum cleaner and I was ready for the power tools. I went to the garage and grabbed my leaf blower. I blasted the until with 200 mph winds. The dust bunnies ran cover and a cloud of dust rose in my kitchen. But the coils were clean.

$ $ $

Went on a group bicycle ride with the mayor et al from the neighboring town. Near the end of the ride, I noticed that my rear tire was thump-thump-thumping. When we stopped, I looked at the tire and it was ready to burst. I couldn't believe it. I only put on 4,000 miles in 2 years (changed last in Feb 2019). The original set lasted thousands more miles and 8 years.

$ $ $

Here's a symbol list of 194 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, AYI, ATSG, ALB, AA, ADS, AYX, DOX, AMED, AXP, AIG, AMWD, AMGN, APA, ATR, ARCB, ADM, AGO, AVY, BBBY, BA, BKNG, BRC, BMY, BG, CBT, CAL, CE, CNC, CNP, CENX, CRL, CHS, CHD, CTXS, CLF, CTSH, CMTL, ED, CLR, CRH, CMI, XRAY, DVN, DFS, D, DOV, DRQ, EIX, EMR, EL, EXPD, FFIV, FDS, FISV, FLS, FTNT, FCX, GME, GPS, GILD, GS, GGG, EVRG, GFF, HSC, HAYN, HTLD, HL, IDA, IEX, IDXX, INCY, NSP, IPI, ISRG, NVTA, JAZZ, LHX, LH, LAWS, LDOS, LLY, LNC, L, MTSI, MRO, MAS, MRK, MLHR, MCO, MS, MOS, MUR, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NEE, NKE, OXY, OGE, PKE, PFE, PCG, POR, PFG, PG, PRU, QCOM, RGA, ROK, SMG, SEE, SWN, SUM, TECH, TER, RIG, UPS, UNM, VLO, WRB, WMT, WMB, ITA, IYM, IAI, IYK, IYE, IEO, IEZ, IHE, IDU, QTEC, FXI, BOTZ, IYH, IHF, SLV, IYF, EWO, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EIS, EWI, EWW, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWD, EWL, EWT, THD, EWU, IBB, PPA, DBA, PBE, PXJ, PJP, IEV, IXC, ILF, MXI, XLY, XLP, XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, UNG, USO, VHT. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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Tuesday 6/1/21. 2021 Market Forecast Update

Forecast Update

Here's the updated 2021 forecast for June, presented in slider format.

Based on sector performance from Fidelity, the best performing sectors for year to date performance as of 28 May 2021 were... (The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.)

1. Energy (+36.1%)
2. Financials (+28.4%)
6. Materials (+20.3%)
5. Industrials (+18.4%)
4. Real estate (+17.7%)
3. Communication services (+16.3%)
9. Health care (+8.2%)
7. Consumer discretionary (+6.2%)
8. Information technology (+5.6%)
11. Consumer staples (+4.2%)
10. Utilities (+2.8%)

The folks at two firms polled by Fidelity weigh the sectors in this order.

1. Information technology
2. Health care
3. Consumer discretionary
4. Financials
5. Communication services
6. Industrials
7. Consumer staples
8. Energy
9. Materials
10. Utilities
11. Real estate

Here's how they rank the industries, but only the top 10 appear. Year to date returns, as of 5/27. The numbering is how they ranked a month ago.

8. Metals and mining (+48.1%)
3. Consumer finance (+40.8%)
1. Real estate management and development (39.7%)
2. Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels (+36.8%)
6. Banks (+35.3%)
9. Airlines (+31.9.%)
4. Household durables (+31.0%)
5. Interactive media and services (29.9%)
(new). Energy equipment and services (+29.5%)
(mew). Distributors (+28.3%)

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A Brief Look Back

The following is a brief review of how the markets performed over time. The numbers refer to the close-to-close move in the Dow industrials.

Monday: Up 186.14 points.
Tuesday: Down 81.52 points.
Wednesday: Up 10.59 points.
Thursday: Up 141.59 points.
Friday: Up 64.81 points.

For the Week...

The Dow industrials were up 321.61 points or 0.9%.
The Nasdaq composite was up 277.75 points or 2.1%.
The S&P 500 index was up 48.25 points or 1.2%.

Year to Date...

Dow Industrials
     1.6% down from the high of 35,091.56 on 05/10/2021.
     15.7% up from the low of 29,856.30 on 01/29/2021.
Nasdaq
     3.3% down from the high of 14,211.57 on 04/29/2021.
     10.9% up from the low of 12,397.05 on 03/05/2021.
S&P 500
     0.8% down from the high of 4,238.04 on 05/07/2021.
     14.8% up from the low of 3,662.71 on 01/04/2021.

Options Expiration

No options expire this week.

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Swing Traders: Pivot Points

The following is based on an SFO article in December 2004 by John Seekinger, titled, "Take a two-dimensional approach." He offers these tips.

IndexS2S1PivotR1R2
Dow Industrials (^DJI): Daily  34,449  34,489  34,560  34,600  34,671 
Weekly  34,094  34,312  34,471  34,689  34,849 
Monthly  32,747  33,638  34,365  35,256  35,983 
S&P500 (^GSPC): Daily  4,194  4,199  4,209  4,214  4,223 
Weekly  4,149  4,177  4,198  4,225  4,246 
Monthly  3,985  4,095  4,166  4,276  4,348 
Nasdaq (^IXIC): Daily  13,699  13,724  13,772  13,797  13,846 
Weekly  13,437  13,593  13,707  13,863  13,977 
Monthly  12,445  13,097  13,654  14,306  14,863 

Here are the formulas:

Pivot point: P = (H + L + C)/3
First resistance level: R1 = (2 * P) - L
First support level: S1 = (2 * P) - H)
Second resistance level: R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
Second support level: S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
H = high price , L=low price, C=closing price

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Earnings, Chart Patterns & Industries

Earnings season is either underway or should be starting soon. The sessions could be more volatile.

Here's a symbol list of 159 chart and candlestick patterns (13 "investment grade" candle patterns) found in today's securities using my version of Patternz: ABT, ACN, AMD, AFL, ALKS, AMED, AMWD, APOG, AMAT, ARCB, ADM, AWI, BSET, BKNG, EPAY, BRKS, CDNS, CNC, CVX, CHD, CGNX, CMCO, CONN, GLW, CREE, CMI, DHR, DECK, XRAY, DVN, DFS, DUK, BOOM, FFIV, FB, FAST, FIS, FISV, FDP, GME, GOOGL, GPRO, HLIT, HSC, HAYN, HQY, HSII, HNI, HD, HON, HOV, IDA, NSP, INTC, IPAR, NVTA, JKHY, KBAL, KLAC, LZB, LH, LRCX, LAWS, LEG, LXU, MTSI, M, MAS, MDC, MRK, MU, MYGN, NBR, NOV, NTGR, NVDA, OGE, OMCL, OMC, ASGN, OXM, PKE, PTEN, PYPL, PPG, QCOM, RL, RMBS, RGS, REV, RES, CRM, SMTC, NOW, SLGN, SO, SWN, SCS, SSYS, TECH, TDOC, TDC, TER, SLCA, VEEV, WU, WEX, WDAY, XEL, XLNX, IYE, IHI, IEZ, IHE, IDU, QTEC, BOTZ, IGV, SOXX, EIS, EWJ, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWT, EWU, QQQ, PHO, ROBO, ILF, SSO, XLY, XLE, XRT, XLU, SMH, MGK. Clink this link for details (pattern type, start and end dates).

For a list of small patterns (those a few days wide) click this link.

The below industries were the best (rank 1) or worst performing of those I follow.

This WeekLast Week
1. Retail (Special Lines)1. Retail (Special Lines)
2. Petroleum (Producing)2. Petroleum (Producing)
3. Securities Brokerage3. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment
4. Apparel4. Securities Brokerage
5. Homebuilding5. Petroleum (Integrated)
6. Oilfield Svcs/Equipment6. Apparel
7. Cement and Aggregates7. Homebuilding
8. Furn/Home Furnishings8. Advertising
9. Shoe9. Cement and Aggregates
10. Petroleum (Integrated)10. Furn/Home Furnishings
Best Performing AboveWorst Performing Below
50. Computer Software and Svcs50. Computer Software and Svcs
51. Telecom. Equipment51. Telecom. Equipment
52. E-Commerce52. Electric Utility (Central)
53. Healthcare Information53. Electric Utility (West)
54. Electric Utility (Central)54. Electric Utility (East)
55. Electric Utility (East)55. Healthcare Information
56. Electric Utility (West)56. E-Commerce
57. Chemical (Specialty)57. Chemical (Specialty)
58. Household Products58. Household Products
59. Short ETFs59. Short ETFs

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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