As of 09/29/2022
Indus: 29,226 -458.13 -1.5%
Trans: 12,258 -199.22 -1.6%
Utils: 906 -38.84 -4.1%
Nasdaq: 10,738 -314.13 -2.8%
S&P 500: 3,640 -78.57 -2.1%
|
YTD
-19.6%
-25.6%
-7.6%
-31.4%
-23.6%
|
 32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/202213,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022990 or 900 by 10/15/202211,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/20223,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022 |
As of 09/29/2022
Indus: 29,226 -458.13 -1.5%
Trans: 12,258 -199.22 -1.6%
Utils: 906 -38.84 -4.1%
Nasdaq: 10,738 -314.13 -2.8%
S&P 500: 3,640 -78.57 -2.1%
|
YTD
-19.6%
-25.6%
-7.6%
-31.4%
-23.6%
|
|
32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/202213,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022990 or 900 by 10/15/202211,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/20223,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022 | |
Statistics updated 7/7/2022 to agree with the results found during research of the book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd Edition.
The following are the top 10 performing chart reversal and continuation patterns. A complete list of chart patterns for both bull and bear markets is available in an Excel spreadsheet by clicking here.
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My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd edition, takes an in-depth look at 76 chart and event patterns, including performance statistics.
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The following covers the top ten reversal performers in bull markets only.
In most cases, a reversal pattern has price entering and exiting the chart pattern from the top. In other words, an inbound downtrend changes (reverses) into an uptrend after the upward breakout. With some patterns, like a bump-and-run reversal bottom, the price trend within the chart pattern is long enough that I consider it a downward move. When an upward breakout follows, it reverses that downtrend.
| Chart pattern | Average Rise |
| Rounded top | 61% |
| Bump-and-run reversal bottom | 55% |
| Double bottom, Eve & Eve | 50% |
| Scallop, descending and inverted | 49% |
| Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending | 47% |
| Head-and-shoulders bottom, complex | 47% |
| Rounded bottom | 47% |
| Scallop, inverted and ascending | 47% |
| Big W | 46% |
| Rectangle bottom | 46% |
Continuation patterns with upward breakouts have price entering the chart pattern from the bottom and exiting out the top. A list of the top 10 performers follows.
| Chart Pattern | Average Rise |
| Cup with handle | 54% |
| Rounded top | 51% |
| Three rising valleys | 51% |
| Rectangle top | 51% |
| Rounded bottom | 48% |
| Diamond bottom | 47% |
| Scallop inverted and ascending | 45% |
| Scallop inverted and descending | 44% |
| Ascending triangle | 43% |
| Ascending scallop | 42% |
These reversal patterns have price entering the pattern from the bottom and exiting the chart pattern out the bottom, too. With a bump-and-reversal top, they are long enough that the price trend is upward within the chart pattern, so I consider a downward breakout as a reversal.
| Chart Pattern | Average Decline |
| V top extended | 18% |
| Diamond top | 17% |
| Big M | 17% |
| Bump-and-run reversal top | 17% |
| Head-and-shoulders top, complex | 17% |
| Rounded top | 16% |
| Cup with handle, inverted | 16% |
| Roof | 16% |
| Double top, Adam & Eve | 16% |
| Double top, Eve & Eve | 16% |
Shown in the next table are the top 10 continuation patterns with downward breakouts in a bull market.
| Chart Pattern | Average Decline |
| Broadening top | 20% |
| Rounded top | 19% |
| Diamond bottom | 19% |
| V top extended | 19% |
| Scallop, ascending | 18% |
| Diamond top | 18% |
| Cup with handle, inverted | 18% |
| Broadening formation, right-angled and descending | 17% |
| Descending triangle | 17% |
| Scallop, descending and inverted | 16% |
The average rise and decline are for hundreds of 'perfect trades' without commissions or fees deducted. Each reversal or continuation measures from the opening price the day after the breakout to the ultimate high (upward breakout) or low price (downward breakout). The ultimate high is the highest high before price drops by at least 20%. The ultimate low is the lowest low before price rises by at least 20%. Other restrictions apply, but you get the idea.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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