As of 04/19/2021
  Indus: 34,078 -123.04 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,799 -120.71 -0.8%  
  Utils: 921 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 13,915 -137.57 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 4,163 -22.21 -0.5%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +18.3%  
 +6.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +10.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/15/2021  
  Up arrow34,800 or 32,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,000 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 885 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 3,900 by 05/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/25/21
As of 04/19/2021
  Indus: 34,078 -123.04 -0.4%  
  Trans: 14,799 -120.71 -0.8%  
  Utils: 921 -2.88 -0.3%  
  Nasdaq: 13,915 -137.57 -1.0%  
  S&P 500: 4,163 -22.21 -0.5%  
YTD
 +11.3%  
 +18.3%  
 +6.5%  
 +8.0%  
 +10.8%  
  Targets    Overview: 04/15/2021  
  Up arrow34,800 or 32,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,200 or 14,000 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow950 or 885 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow15,000 or 12,900 by 05/01/2021
  Up arrow4,400 or 3,900 by 05/01/2021
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 3/25/21

Bulkowski's 2021 Forecast March Update

 

Released 2/26/2021.

Forecast Updated for March 2021

Below is the updated forecast for 2021 as of the close on Friday February 26. Captions appear below the pictures for guidance, so be sure to scroll down far enough to read them.

On some of the charts (all except the CPI chart) the prediction in red is based on the work of Edgar Lawrence Smith in the 1930s. Smith said that the stock market followed a 10-year cycle. Each year tended to repeat the behavior of the year a decade earlier. In other words, if you averaged all years ending in 1 (2001, 1991, 1981 and so on), that would give you a forecast for 2011. For 2012, you'd make a similar average, only use 2002, 1992, 1982, and so on. That's what I did for the market forecast charts which follow.

 

1 / 4
chart pattern

This is a graph of the chart pattern indicator (CPI) against the S&P 500 index. Briefly, the CPI counts the number of bullish patterns to bearish ones in the belief that at significant market turns, the bearish patterns will outnumber the bullish ones, or vice versa. The thin blue line at the bottom of the chart is the CPI.

The big drop in the Dow (down 469) today (Friday, 2/26/21) pulled down the CPI. Whether that signal will remain bearish is anyone's guess. It can change (disappear) for up to a week. My guess is that the Dow will continue lower before it rebounds. The next charts show what the forecast says will happen.

The next chart looks at the 2021 forecast for the Dow industrials.
2 / 4
chart pattern

This is the Dow Industrials in black and the prediction in red. The forecast showed the Dow dropping right out of the gate, to A even as the Dow soared to B.

The drop in the Dow came at C and it recovered, generally following the forecast toward D.

Looking forward, if the forecast is correct, the Dow will retrace up to D before plunging to E in mid March.

The Nasdaq forecast is next.
3 / 4
chart pattern

Here's a chart of the Nasdaq.

The forecast shows the Nasdaq peaking sooner (A) than it actually did (B) but it got the height correct. From B, the Nasdaq followed the forecast lower to C, where it is now.

If the forecast is correct, look for the Nasdaq to continue lower to D in early to mid March.

The next chart shows the SPX (S&P 500).
4 / 4
chart pattern

Here's the S&P 500 (SPX, really) on the daily scale.

The forecast performed better on this chart. The forecast climbed to B and so did the S&P, but the index dropped to A first.

The forecast shows the index dropping to C, retracing to D before resuming the drop to E and bottoming there.

The end.

See Also

 
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