Bulkowski's Key Reversal, Uptrend

Written by and copyright © 2005-2017 by Thomas N. Bulkowski. All rights reserved. Disclaimer: You alone are responsible for your investment decisions. See Privacy/Disclaimer for more information.

There are more than one pattern called a key reversal. Here is one implementation.

Important Results Identification Guidelines Trading Tips Performance Statistics Performance and Failure Rates Measure Rule Trading Performance Trading Example See Also

Key Reversal, Uptrend

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Identification Guidelines

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Trading Tips

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Performance Statistics

For the following statistics, I used 1,189 stocks, starting from January 1990 to March 2013, but few stocks covered the entire range. All stocks had a minimum price of $5. There were two bear markets in the 2000s (as determined by the S&P 500 index), from 3/24/2000 to 10/10/2002 and 10/12/2007 to 3/6/2009. Everything outside of those dates represents a bull market.

For each uptrend key reversal, I found when the trend started and when it ended. To find the trend peak or valley, I found the lowest valley and highest peak within plus or minus 10 days (21 days total) each, before the key reversal and the same peak/valley test after the key reversal. The closest valley or peak before the key reversal is where the trend began. The closest peak or valley after the key reversal is where the trend ended. I compared the peak or valley to the average of the highest high and lowest low price of the key reversal pattern.

The 10-bar peak or valley number tends to find major turning points on the daily charts.

I measured performance from the opening price the day after price closed either above the top or below the bottom of the pattern to the nearest trend peak or trend valley.

To determine the inbound price trend (I was looking for an up trend), I used linear regression on the average of the high-low prices in the five days before the pattern. That caught the short-term trend.

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Performance and Failure Rates

Table 1 lists the failure rates, sorted by market condition along with the average rise or drop. Although the key reversal is supposed to act as a reversal of the upward trend, I did not make that assumption. Instead, I let the pattern decide the breakout direction.

A failure occurs when the stock fails to move more than 5% in the breakout direction.

The failure rates may appear high, but that's typical for short-term patterns like the key reversal. The highest failures occur in a bull market.

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Measure Rule

Table 2 shows how often the measure rule works. Use the measure rule to estimate of how far price is likely to move.

To do this, measure from the highest high to the lowest low in the pattern to get the height. Subtract the height from the lowest low or add it to the highest high to get the down/up target.

The best performance of the measure rule occurs in a bull market, with 71% of patterns reaching their target. Notice that the breakouts in line with the market trend (bull market, up breakout or bear market, down breakout) reach their targets more often than the counter-trend trades.

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Trading Performance

Table 3 shows the performance based on 13,177 trades using $10 commissions per trade ($20 round trip), starting with $10,000 per trade. No other adjustments were made for interest, fees, slippage and so on.

The results are sorted by bull or bear market, up and down breakouts. The trades used the same setup as listed in Key Reversal, Uptrend, Performance Statistics.

Here's the setup.

• Find an uptrend key reversal
• Wait for price to close either above the top or below the bottom of the key reversal.
• Buy (up breakouts) or sell short (down breakouts) at the open the next day.
• Close out the trade when price moves 7% in the breakout direction.
• A stop placed 7% opposite the breakout direction also closes out the trade for a loss.

For example, in a bull market, the net gain was $71.11 for all trades. The method won 56% of the time and there were 1,867 winning trades. The average gain of winning trades was $707.73.

Forty-four percent, or 1,456 trades were losers. They lost an average of $745.22.

The average hold time was 30 calendar days.

Notice how the gains and losses were pegged near 7%, which is how the test was setup.

Key Reversal, Uptrend, Trading Example

The figure shows a key reversal pattern in 3M (MMM) on the daily scale, shown in the inset.

Price rises leading to the key reversal. Then an outside day appears (which is the key reversal). On the second day of that pattern, price opens above the prior close, closes below the prior day's low, and posts a high above the prior day.

If this were a reversal of the uptrend, you would see a downward breakout. That occurs here at A. Buy at the open the next day, B.

Hold until price either gains 7% or loses 7%. That occurs at C.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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