As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
My book,
Swing and Day Trading
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This trading setup uses the 5-minute chart to take advantage of price making a strong move up. You short the stock after it peaks then use a tight stop as price descends.
The idea behind this trade is to find a strong move up, wait for the turn, and then short the stock to capture a portion of the retrace of the prior up move. You can use this setup on any time scale but you can narrow your potential loss if you use a short time period to exit, like the 1-minute scale.
The figure shows an idealized retrace trade. You can use the 1 or 5 minute scale for this. Price begins trending upward at A with a tall white candle. Candle B has short shadows and the candle opens near where the prior candle closes. Candle C is similar in appearance but that is not important. What is important is that you have at least three consecutive white candles. Many times, more than three candles will form a strong up trend. You do not want to see much overlap between candles and few or no consolidation regions. Those consolidation regions will slow or stop price when it turns.
In this example, candle D ends the uptrend. Candle E forms as a color change. This is the signal candle. It may not mean a trend change but you can use it to prepare. Place an order to short the stock a penny or two below the low. I show that as point F. Place a stop a penny above the top of the candle at E. If the candle is tall then switch to a shorter scale (move from the 5-minute scale to the 1-minute, for example) and place the stop. If no good stop location exists, then place a stop a penny above the mid point of the tall candle's body.
If you are using the 5-minute scale to find the setup then switch to the 1-minute scale as price approaches the target. The ideal target is at least 50% of the prior up move. That is half the move from the swing low at A to the swing high at D. Other retrace values are 38%, 50%, 62% or even more of the AD move. If price approaches the 38% retrace target then switch to the 1-minute scale for the exit.
To exit the trade once price nears the target, place a stop a penny above the prior candle's high. Lower the stop as each new candle appears. In this example, the initial stop is at E then the stop location follows each candle lower as price descends. At candle H, the stop is a penny above the prior candle's high at G. Candle H pierces the stop and takes us out of the trade.
The chart shows an example of the retrace trade. Price climbs in a strong trend on the 5-minute chart beginning at candle A and topping out at B. Candle B becomes the signal candle, the first indication that the trend might change. The candle is red while the others to this point have been green. Place an order to short the stock at C, a penny below the candle's low.
The next candle gets you into the trade at 42.35. Place a stop above the candle's high, or 42.49. The target would be half the move from A to B (40.45 + 42.48)/2, or 41.47. A closer target would use 38% of the distance down from the high, or 41.71.
As price nears the 41.71 target, move the stop to a penny above the prior candle's high. On this 5-minute chart, that would take you out at 41.67 (on candle E), slightly below the 41.71 target but still above the 41.47 target.
If you had switched to the 1-minute chart as price neared the 41.71 target (using any candle on or after 10:56 and a starting high price of 42.01), a stop would have taken you out at 41.58. This corresponds to using a penny above the high of candle A (at 10:56) and lowering the stop to a penny above the prior candle high as price descends. Candle B (at 11:07) would stop you out.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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