As of 09/28/2022
  Indus: 29,684 +548.75 +1.9%  
  Trans: 12,457 +303.78 +2.5%  
  Utils: 945 +10.61 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,052 +222.14 +2.1%  
  S&P 500: 3,719 +71.75 +2.0%  
YTD
-18.3%  
-24.4%  
-3.7%  
-29.4%  
-22.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow990 or 900 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/28/22
As of 09/28/2022
  Indus: 29,684 +548.75 +1.9%  
  Trans: 12,457 +303.78 +2.5%  
  Utils: 945 +10.61 +1.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,052 +222.14 +2.1%  
  S&P 500: 3,719 +71.75 +2.0%  
YTD
-18.3%  
-24.4%  
-3.7%  
-29.4%  
-22.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 09/15/2022  
  Up arrow32,000 or 29,200 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow13,800 or 11,800 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow990 or 900 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow11,975 or 10,700 by 10/15/2022
  Up arrow3,800 or 3,500 by 10/15/2022
CPI (updated daily): Arrows on 9/28/22

Bulkowski on Pattern Pairs: Rising Wedges

Initial release: 12/17/2021.

The idea behind pattern pairs is to pick a chart pattern type (like broadening bottoms with upward breakouts) to buy and another to sell (like double tops). You buy the upward breakout from the broadening bottom, hold for a few years, and sell when a double top appears and breaks out downward. Along the way, you give price a chance to rise far enough to overcome those trades which are stopped out for a loss. This is a trend-following strategy.

Trading Rising Wedges: Summary

Picture of the pattern pairs.

The figure illustrates the idea for trading pattern pairs, where price is the red line and the boxes are chart patterns. This articles assumes you buy an upward breakout from either a rising wedge or a busted one (price breaks out downward, drops no more than 10%, reverses, and closes above the top of the pattern. Buy as price rises above the top of the pattern).

On the sale side, you can sell the first bearish chart pattern which comes along or wait for your favorite bearish chart pattern to appear and sell then.

Here's a list of the top five performing sell signals, based on annualized gain (annualized because the hold time is often years, in parenthesis).

The following list shows the expected performance of chart pattern pairs, ranked by their expectancy. Expectancy is a way of gauging winning and losing trades and how much money you might make trading a pattern pair. I put the expected profit per trade, per share, in parenthesis.

To improve performance, try these tips.

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Trading Rising Wedges: Entry and Exit Conditions

The databases I built over several decades doesn't identify every chart pattern. There may be plenty of double tops over the years, for example, that I didn't catalog on the way to the one I did catalog. So buying an upward breakout from a rising wedge and selling at the double top I cataloged would be different than choosing to sell a different double top. However, the following analysis does give a real-world flavor for how well you might do trading chart patterns if you follow the pattern pair strategy.

Here's what I used in my analysis.

I used the following 43 chart patterns in the analysis, but some only applied if they were busted.

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Trading Rising Wedges: Stops

I used a stop loss order set a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern. Price on the way down may have gapped below the stop price (for the sale price), so I used the lower of the stop price or the opening price on the day of sale).

For trailing stops, I removed the stop loss order and used a trailing stop set at 10%, 15%, 20%, or 25% below a peak, never lowering the stop value, but raising it if a higher peak came along during the trade.

In Table 1, I calculated the percentage net gain (the average of gains and losses) when using various trailing stop loss amounts (10%, 15%, 20%, and 25%) for all tested chart patterns according to the busted/non-busted buy/sell configuration. In parenthesis is the size of the average loss so I could detail how losses change with various stop loss orders.

For example, if I tested non-busted rising wedges and sold various non-busted patterns (ascending triangles, broadening tops, head-and-shoulders tops, and so on), I made an average of 22% ("Stop Loss Only" column) after having a stop loss order in place. Losses averaged 17%. Replacing the stop loss with a 10% trailing stop cut the gain to 2% but also trimmed the average loss to 6%. Using a 25% trailing stop allowed me to keep more money, 11%, but losses climbed to 15%. If I didn't use any type of stop, the gain averaged 100% with losses averaging 31%.

Trailing stops work best for busted patterns.

Table 1: Various Trailing Stop Settings: Net Profit and (Average Loss)
Data 10%  15%  20%  25%  Stop Loss 
Only
 No Stop
Non-busted buys, non-busted sales 2% (-6%)  6% (-8%)  9% (-11%)  11% (-15%)  22% (-17%)  100% (-31%) 
Busted buys, non-busted sales 5% (-6%)  8% (-9%)  13% (-12%)  21% (-15%)  22% (-17%)  69% (-30%) 
Non-busted buys, busted sales 2% (-5%)  7% (-8%)  10% (-11%)  11% (-15%)  19% (-17%)  122% (-31%) 
Busted buys, busted sales 4% (-6%)  7% (-9%)  12% (-12%)  17% (-15%)  20% (-17%)  82% (-27%) 

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Trading Rising Wedges: Busted Patterns

Table 2 shows what I found when comparing the performance of non-busted patterns (both buy and sell) with busted and non-busted chart patterns. In 22 or 31 contests (up to 31 different chart pattern types, depending on which apply), I compared the three combinations of busted and non-busted buy and sell signals to non-busted buy and sell signals. The table below shows the percentage of time the busted combination beat the non-busted combination in the contests.

I found that the highest rate of success for busted patterns was 48%. If you bought a busted rising wedge and sold a non-busted pattern, that combination would only succeed 48% of the time over the non-busted buy and non-busted sale combination.

According to the contest results, avoid trading using busted chart patterns.

Table 2: Busted or Non-Busted Contest Winners
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternN/A (benchmark)32%
Buy busted pattern48%36%

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Trading Rising Wedges: Non-busted Buy, Non-Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

Table 3 shows statistics I collected for rising wedges using the trading rules described above and shown in the figure. A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern (after buying).

For example, if you were to buy the upward breakout from a rising wedge chart pattern and hold it until you encountered a broadening bottom (the first chart pattern listed in the table), but one with a downward breakout, you'd net an average of 24% on the 165 (42 winners, 123 losers) trades. That's an average of 142% on your winners, 16% average loss on your losers. You'd find that only 25% of the trades made money but you'd gain an average of 12% per year (ranking 34th where 1 is best). If you removed the stop loss order and just held on until the broadening bottom with a downward breakout appeared, you'd make 63% per trade.

The expectancy averaged $2.40 per share per trade which ranks 65th where 1 is the best value.

Notes: The rank is based on the net gain for all four performance tables (tables 3 to 6) shown below. Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 3: Statistics for rising wedges
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom142%-16%24%12%3463%42/12325%$2.4065
Broadening top108%-15%18%9%54102%80/21927%$3.1747
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending78%-16%18%11%4239%46/8336%$1.8371
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending126%-16%31%16%1360%35/7133%$2.1667
Broadening wedge, ascending151%-15%30%19%657%22/6027%$0.2295
Broadening wedge, descending70%-16%6%3%10236%18/5425%$1.6076
Bump-and-run reversal top118%-15%34%19%476%125/21437%$5.9917
Diamond bottom53%-13%15%7%7352%18/2443%$2.7854
Diamond top98%-16%18%11%4078%37/8730%$3.0553
Adam & Adam double top150%-14%27%12%27122%183/55325%$5.1524
Adam & Eve double top151%-15%18%9%55104%70/27520%$1.7673
Eve & Adam double top225%-15%45%19%7113%97/29125%$7.9710
Eve & Eve double top169%-14%32%16%12116%105/31225%$6.9012
Falling wedge55%-17%-3%-3%11040%15/6519%-$5.72114
Head-and-shoulders top115%-14%21%11%4471%311/83027%$3.1448
Head-and-shoulders, complex top90%-15%10%6%8341%45/14324%$1.4580
Rectangle top149%-15%25%14%1667%44/13724%$3.7037
Rising wedge126%-15%25%12%2466%83/20329%$2.7456
Rounding top166%-15%21%10%5063%32/13020%$2.5360
Ascending scallop96%-17%17%11%3951%21/5030%$0.8685
Descending scallop96%-16%10%5%9062%125/42323%$0.9182
Scallop, inverted and ascending278%-14%45%25%1112%14/5520%$10.265
Scallop, descending and inverted138%-16%19%9%5846%83/28123%$0.7886
Triangle, ascending102%-15%26%14%1764%63/12034%$3.6238
Triangle, descending59%-16%-2%-1%10924%33/14718%-$5.53113
Triangle, symmetrical113%-15%19%10%5165%149/40927%$2.4762
Triple top157%-15%24%12%2582%201/66823%$3.4242
Rectangle bottom55%-16%-5%-4%11162%17/9415%-$2.18104
3 falling peaks135%-16%25%11%3876%299/81327%$3.5041
Roof141%-15%27%18%862%16/4427%$3.0552
Roof, inverted107%-15%25%12%3396%27/5633%$5.1325
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Rising Wedges: Busted Buy, Non-Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

The figure shows the setup for this scenario. When price busts the bearish chart pattern (busts a downward breakout from a rising wedge in a bull market), buy. Sell after a downward breakout from the target chart pattern.

Table 4 shows the performance of busted rising wedges for the entry and sales after downward breakouts from various bearish chart patterns. A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the pattern (after buying).

A busted rising wedge has a downward breakout but price drops no more than 10% before reversing and moving above the top of the pattern. Buy when price moves at least a penny above the top of the busted pattern. Sell after price drops at least a penny below the target chart pattern.

For example, buying a rising wedge with a busted downward breakout in a bull market (the entry price is really the higher of a penny above the top of the pattern or the opening price) and selling after the downward breakout from a broadening bottom shows winners averaging gains of 107%. Losses average 16%, for a net of 25%. Annualized that's 11% (ranking 41st). Only 121 trades occurred with a win/loss ratio of 33%. If you traded this as a buy-and-hold position, meaning no stops were used, the net gain climbed to 81%. Expectancy was flat, ranking 98th where 1 is best.

Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 4: Statistics for Busted Buys, Normal Sales
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom107%-16%25%11%4181%40/8133%$0.0098
Broadening top110%-13%30%14%1469%103/18835%$8.616
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending86%-15%22%12%3139%46/7937%$0.9083
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending66%-14%11%5%8746%31/6931%$0.5590
Broadening wedge, ascending113%-15%32%19%580%22/3837%$2.4264
Broadening wedge, descending44%-14%-7%-5%11211%9/5813%-$2.48107
Bump-and-run reversal top72%-15%16%11%4551%102/18635%-$0.1799
Diamond bottom48%-16%-3%5%5/1921%
Diamond top95%-15%20%10%4965%33/7032%$2.4663
Adam & Adam double top166%-14%40%13%23113%208/48530%$10.284
Adam & Eve double top96%-13%22%9%6184%93/19333%$6.6316
Eve & Adam double top128%-14%25%11%4688%100/26827%$6.6815
Eve & Eve double top101%-15%19%9%5681%99/23829%$3.1945
Falling wedge78%-18%6%3%10319%18/5325%-$2.76108
Head-and-shoulders top118%-13%26%12%2676%301/70230%$4.3532
Head-and-shoulders, complex top86%-15%18%9%6052%46/9632%$3.7335
Rectangle top96%-15%13%6%8454%41/12225%$2.6858
Rising wedge70%-15%15%8%6949%105/19036%$2.5959
Rounding top91%-16%11%5%9138%41/12025%-$2.34106
Ascending scallop41%-15%12%7%7545%27/2948%-$1.54103
Descending scallop128%-16%22%12%3253%111/30427%$2.6957
Scallop, inverted and ascending81%-17%14%6%7738%18/4031%-$0.23100
Scallop, descending and inverted76%-17%9%5%9223%67/17528%$0.8784
Triangle, ascending103%-15%15%8%6663%44/12726%$1.8669
Triangle, descending93%-15%16%8%7046%47/12028%-$3.13109
Triangle, symmetrical109%-14%23%12%2965%137/31730%$3.9133
Triple top109%-14%23%10%4767%259/58931%$5.5620
Rectangle bottom67%-16%-1%-1%10723%22/9818%-$4.68111
3 falling peaks101%-16%19%8%6460%272/63330%$3.5739
Roof102%-12%13%8%6892%12/4222%$4.3931
Roof, inverted118%-13%43%20%373%30/4043%$11.393
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Rising Wedges: Non-busted Buy, Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

The figure shows an example of how this trade unfolds.

A bullish chart pattern appears and you buy at the breakout. Continue holding until your selected chart pattern appears. The chart pattern is bullish because it has an upward breakout but then things go wrong. Price reverses. Sell when the stock dips below the bottom of the chart pattern (meaning it busts the upward breakout).

Table 5 shows the performance statistics for this setup (buying a normal rising wedge and selling only after a busted chart pattern appears). A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern (after buying).

For example, buying a rising wedge with an upward breakout in a bull market and selling a busted broadening bottom shows winning trades making an average of 72%. Losing trades lost 15% giving a net gain of 9%. The annualized gain was 4% in this case, giving the setup a rank of 95 (where 1 is best). If you traded this without a stop, the net gain climbed to 41%. Of the stocks I looked at, I found 50 trades with 28% of them winning. Expectancy was $1.24 per share, ranking 81 where 1 is best.

Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.

Table 5: Statistics for Normal Buy, Busted Sale
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom72%-15%9%4%9541%14/3628%$1.2481
Broadening top126%-15%14%8%6766%32/12520%$3.2744
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending156%-15%33%13%2280%18/4628%$3.1746
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending115%-13%24%11%4338%18/4429%$5.1126
Broadening wedge, ascending175%-16%28%90%6/2023%
Broadening wedge, descending62%-16%7%3%10023%14/3429%$0.7487
Bump-and-run reversal bottom82%-14%20%8%6544%14/2635%$5.5919
Cup with handle81%-15%4%21%4/1620%
Diamond bottom56%-12%-1%-1%108111%6/3216%-$1.46102
Diamond top180%-13%53%23%2111%17/3334%$6.7614
Adam & Adam double bottom137%-14%26%11%37110%71/19726%$5.1822
Adam & Eve double bottom118%-16%8%4%99117%25/11817%$0.1796
Eve & Adam double bottom102%-14%14%6%7991%23/7124%$5.0528
Eve & Eve double bottom112%-15%17%8%71111%30/8726%$5.3921
Falling wedge45%-17%-9%-9%11449%6/4412%-$3.61110
Head-and-shoulders bottom90%-14%8%4%9759%51/18422%$0.2494
Head-and-shoulders complex bottom101%-16%17%6%8137%10/2628%$4.8929
Rectangle top94%-15%15%8%6347%24/6427%$1.5877
Rising wedge136%-16%20%13%2176%9/2924%-$5.29112
Round bottom32%-15%-6%44%2/820%
Rounding top76%-16%5%56%4/1324%
Ascending scallop44%-15%4%2%10452%21/4532%$0.4493
Descending scallop112%-16%18%9%5975%10/2826%$3.5040
Scallop, inverted and ascending100%-17%12%6%86113%31/9624%$1.8272
Scallop, descending and inverted72%-15%9%5%9440%15/4027%$1.8570
Triangle, ascending91%-15%16%9%5768%27/6430%$1.5778
Triangle, descending77%-16%7%3%10166%18/5724%$0.4492
Triangle, symmetrical162%-15%33%16%1168%75/20227%$3.1349
Triple bottom156%-15%33%14%1583%87/22228%$8.239
Rectangle bottom75%-15%10%5%8843%12/3128%$0.4791
3 rising valleys148%-15%31%14%20107%62/15628%$8.437
Roof43%-15%-5%100%4/2017%
Roof, inverted66%-14%11%5%8953%10/2231%$1.6875
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Rising Wedges: Busted Buy, Busted Sale

Picture of a busted pattern pair.

Table 6 shows the last combination of trading statistics. It shows busted rising wedges as the entry signal and various busted chart patterns as the exit signal. A stop loss order was used and priced a penny below the bottom of the chart pattern (after buying).

The associated figure shows the setup.

For example, buying a busted rising wedge and selling a busted broadening top made 76% from the winners, lost 12% on the losers for a net gain of 9%. Annualized, it was 4%. The net gain placed the performance of this setup at 98, where a rank of 1 is best. Removing stops from the trades allowed them to make 42%. Only 50 trades were taken and 24% of them were winners. Expectancy was a gain of $3.05 per share, ranking 51st among the four tables.

Trades with sample counts below 30 are not ranked.


Table 6: Statistics for Busted Buys and Sales
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank
Broadening bottom76%-12%9%4%9842%12/3824%$3.0551
Broadening top102%-13%14%6%8081%38/12224%$5.8418
Broadening formation, right-angled and ascending56%-14%12%6%8233%21/3637%$1.8868
Broadening formation, right-angled and descending46%-15%2%1%10637%14/3628%$0.0897
Broadening wedge, ascending75%-14%-3%56%3/2212%
Broadening wedge, descending92%-14%14%6%7647%12/3426%$2.1866
Bump-and-run reversal bottom49%-13%10%5%9330%15/2538%$2.5061
Cup with handle48%-15%10%23%10/1540%
Diamond bottom198%-14%39%17%10137%10/3025%$8.258
Diamond top134%-12%46%18%972%23/3540%$13.912
Adam & Adam double bottom158%-14%38%14%19112%65/14930%$14.181
Adam & Eve double bottom150%-13%30%12%3586%31/8527%$5.1723
Eve & Adam double bottom115%-12%25%9%5368%25/6129%$7.1111
Eve & Eve double bottom90%-15%14%7%7244%21/5627%$3.7236
Falling wedge88%-17%22%12%2836%13/2237%$2.7555
Head-and-shoulders complex bottom77%-13%10%63%7/2026%
Rectangle top74%-14%10%6%8545%23/6127%$0.6688
Rising wedge74%-12%18%10%5243%21/3935%-$0.87101
Round bottom64%-13%14%13%6/1135%
Rounding top56%-18%-6%0%4/2017%
Ascending scallop81%-13%24%14%1854%22/3340%$1.6874
Descending scallop153%-15%33%61%6/1529%
Scallop, inverted and ascending99%-15%18%9%6266%36/8929%$3.1250
Scallop, descending and inverted82%-14%16%6%7849%13/2832%$3.3043
Triangle, ascending58%-14%6%4%9640%23/6028%$0.6289
Triangle, descending58%-16%5%2%10550%20/5228%$1.5279
Triangle, symmetrical77%-14%18%7%7466%87/16335%$3.8734
Triple bottom118%-16%27%10%4871%98/20732%$4.4130
Rectangle bottom50%-20%-11%-6%11340%6/3814%-$2.25105
3 rising valleys122%-14%28%12%3071%61/13531%$6.8013
Roof54%-13%6%72%4/1029%
Roof, inverted140%-13%33%12%3673%9/2130%$5.1027
Sell PatternAverage
Win
Average
Loss
NetAnnualized
Net
RankNo Stop
Net
Win/Loss
Samples
Win
Loss
Average
Expectancy
Expectancy
Rank

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Trading Rising Wedges: Performance Improvements

Here are a few ideas the data suggested which may improve performance of your pattern pairs trading.

Trend Start: Short, Medium, or Long

Find the trend start for your chart pattern. Often you can just look at a chart and see where the trend begins. If not, or you want to be sure, then the glossary describes how to find it.

Determine the length from the trend start to the pattern's start: short term (less than 3 months), medium term (3 to 6 months) or long term (more than 6 months).

Table 7 shows the results for the four combinations of busted/non-busted trades and the resulting performance.

Buy patterns with a short-term (up to 3 months) trend leading to the start of the pattern. That combination works best in three of four cases.

Table 7: Short (S) Medium (M) or Long (L) Trend Start and Performance
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternS40% M8% L4%S37% M5% L3
Buy busted patternS25% M24% L15%S20% M24% L17%

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Moving Averages: 50- and 200-Day SMA

I checked two moving averages at buy time, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (not as a crossover setup). I compared the breakout price to the value of the moving average. Table 8 shows the performance of buying or selling busted or non-busted patterns when the breakout price was above (A) or below (B) the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Buy rising wedges when the breakout price is above the 50-day SMA.

Table 8: Above (A) Below (B) 50-Day Simple Moving Average
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternA23% B21%A20% B19%
Buy busted patternA23% B12%A21% B11%

Table 9 shows the results of using a longer moving average, the 200-day. Traders often use this as a proxy for the long-term trend.

In this case, buy rising wedges when the breakout price is below the 200-day SMA.

Table 9: Above (A) Below (B) 200-Day Simple Moving Average
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted patternA15% B65%A12% B61%
Buy busted patternA20% B33%A18% B37%

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Selling First Bearish Chart Pattern

The prior discussion assumes you buy an rising wedge (busted or non-busted) but sell a chart pattern of your choosing, such as a downward breakout from a head-and-shoulders top (you wait for one to appear). What if you sold the first bearish chart pattern which comes along? How would you do?

Table 10 shows the results sorted by the type of patterns involved (busted or non-busted). For example, if you buy a non-busted rising wedge and sell the first non-busted chart pattern which comes along, you'd make 9% on average. Annualized, you'd make 17%. This compares to an 11% annualized gain if you sell a designated pattern (like you waited for a double top before selling, which may or may not be the first bearish chart pattern to come along).

Selling the first pattern which comes along works only when selling non-busted patterns.

The bottom half of the table shows expectancy for the four combinations.

Table 10: Selling the First Bearish Pattern (Annualized)
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted pattern9% (17% v 11%)2% (5% v 9%)
Buy busted pattern11% (21% v 10%)1% (1% v 9%)
Expectancy (Below)
 Sell Non-Busted PatternSell Busted Pattern
Buy non-busted pattern$1.95$0.49
Buy busted pattern$2.98$-0.30

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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See Also

 

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My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of chart patterns book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book Trading classic chart patterns book

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