As of 12/20/2024   Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%     Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%     Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%     Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%     S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%	YTD  +13.7%   0.0%    +11.9%    +30.4%    +24.3%	Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

As of 12/20/2024   Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%     Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%     Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%     Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%     S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%	YTD  +13.7%   0.0%    +11.9%    +30.4%    +24.3%
Targets    Overview: 12/12/2024     44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025   16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/2025   1,050 or 975 by 01/01/2025   20,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/2025   6,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025
Chart Pattern Indicator: on 12/5/24

Bulkowski on Trendiness

This article discusses trendiness. What is trendiness? It describes how often price trends after the breakout from a chart pattern.

This type of information is most useful for swing traders because they want to catch the move after the breakout when price begins to trend. The below rankings will help swing traders select chart patterns that typically lead to strong trends.

• Summary
• Background
• Methodology
• Upward Breakout Results
• Downward Breakout Results
• See Also.

Trendiness: Summary

I measured the move from the close the day before a chart pattern breakout to the first minor high or minor low. These are typically short moves before a throwback or pullback occurs.

The top performing chart patterns with upward breakouts are (click on the link for more information):

1. Flag, high and tight
2. Flag
3. Diamond bottom
4. Pennant
5. Rectangle bottom

For downward breakouts, the best decliners are (click on the link for more information):

1. Diamond bottom
2. Inverted cup with handle
3. Big W
4. Scallop, descending
5. Rounding top

Trendiness: Background

Several years ago, I received an email asking about an idea called trendiness. That is, which chart patterns result in price trending after the breakout?

I did some research to answer that question and this article shares those results.

Trendiness: Methodology

I used my database of chart patterns and scanned it for confirmed patterns that dated as far back as April 1989 and as recent as October 2011 (I conducted the study on June 27, 2012). I found 37,594 patterns.

For each pattern, I found the nearest minor high or minor low after the breakout. To do that, I found the first minor high that was above any higher peak within five days (five days before to five days after, for a total of 11 days). The same applied to minor lows -- the lowest low within five days (11 days total).

Then, I measured the price change from the closing price the day before the breakout (to catch any breakout day gaps) to the high at the minor high or the low at the minor low.

I averaged the results for each pattern type and show those below.

Trendiness: Upward Breakout Results

The following table shows the results for upward breakouts only. Low sample counts are shown highlighted in red. Distrust the associated performance.

Trendiness: Downward Breakout Results

The following table shows the results for downward breakouts only. Low sample counts are shown highlighted in red. Distrust the associated performance.

-- Thomas Bulkowski

See Also

• Alphabetical rank. Chart pattern performance rank, sorted alphabetically.
• Failure rank. Rank of chart pattern failures.
• Performance. Chart pattern performance rank.
• Find the performance rank of event and chart patterns.
• The best performing chart patterns over 1, 2, and 3 months.
• Top 10 reversals and continuations. A short list plus download.
• Stocks that double. Discover what attributes they share.
• Ugly patterns: Do they outperform? Yes.
• Busted chart patterns. The answer to profits?

On a clear disk, you can seek forever.