As of 06/07/2023
  Indus: 33,665 +91.74 +0.3%  
  Trans: 14,406 +345.09 +2.5%  
  Utils: 918 +15.80 +1.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,105 -171.52 -1.3%  
  S&P 500: 4,268 -16.33 -0.4%  
YTD
 +1.6%  
 +7.6%  
-5.1%  
 +25.2%  
 +11.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/30/2023  
  Up arrow33,950 or 32,000 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow14,600 or 13,350 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow935 or 880 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow13,600 or 12,200 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow4,350 or 4,000 by 06/15/2023
As of 06/07/2023
  Indus: 33,665 +91.74 +0.3%  
  Trans: 14,406 +345.09 +2.5%  
  Utils: 918 +15.80 +1.8%  
  Nasdaq: 13,105 -171.52 -1.3%  
  S&P 500: 4,268 -16.33 -0.4%  
YTD
 +1.6%  
 +7.6%  
-5.1%  
 +25.2%  
 +11.1%  
  Targets    Overview: 05/30/2023  
  Up arrow33,950 or 32,000 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow14,600 or 13,350 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow935 or 880 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow13,600 or 12,200 by 06/15/2023
  Up arrow4,350 or 4,000 by 06/15/2023

Bulkowski's Ugly Pattern Performance Study

Do perfectly shaped chart patterns perform better or worse than ugly ones? In a test of two chart pattern types, the uglier patterns outperformed the well-shaped ones.

Ugly Pattern Performance: Detailed Results

I looked at double bottoms and double tops to determine whether ugly (uneven) tops or bottoms performed better than those with even peaks or valleys. Here's what I found.

Peak to peak price difference =>0-1%1-2%2-3%3-4%4-5%
Double tops15.5% (276)17.3% (320)19.3% (57)21.5% (21)29.9% (17)
Double bottoms31.5% (304)32.0% (378)33.6% (277)33.3% (232)42.8% (73)

Numbers in parentheses are samples used in the test and the percentages are the average move post breakout. Double bottoms have the most samples. When the valleys are within 0 to 1% in price from each other, the rise averages 31.5%. When the valleys are 4 to 5% apart in price, the rise averages 42.8%. Thus, the uglier the chart pattern, the better the performance.

Ugly Pattern Performance: Definitions

I measured the rise or fall from the breakout price to the ultimate high or low. A breakout occurs when price climbs above the highest high between the double bottoms, or below the lowest low between the double tops. The ultimate high is the highest high before price tumbles at least 20%. The ultimate low is the lowest low before price rises at least 20%. In the test, I used 1,275 stocks covering 7/1991 to 3/2006. Not all stocks covered the entire period and only qualifying double tops and bottoms were used. I found 2,239 double top or bottom patterns, but not all of them had usable data (the ultimate high or low wasn't found yet because price hadn't reversed).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
My stock market books:  Chart Patterns: After the Buy Getting Started in Chart Patterns 2nd edition book Trading Basics book Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading book Swing and Day Trading book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 3rd Edition book

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