As of 01/27/2023
  Indus: 33,978 +28.67 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,483 +191.14 +1.3%  
  Utils: 968 +1.08 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,622 +109.30 +0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,071 +10.13 +0.2%  
YTD
 +2.5%  
 +8.1%  
 +0.0%  
 +11.0%  
 +6.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2023  
  Up arrow34,900 or 33,150 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow15,100 or 13,500 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow1,040 or 950 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 02/01/2023
As of 01/27/2023
  Indus: 33,978 +28.67 +0.1%  
  Trans: 14,483 +191.14 +1.3%  
  Utils: 968 +1.08 +0.1%  
  Nasdaq: 11,622 +109.30 +0.9%  
  S&P 500: 4,071 +10.13 +0.2%  
YTD
 +2.5%  
 +8.1%  
 +0.0%  
 +11.0%  
 +6.0%  
  Targets    Overview: 01/13/2023  
  Up arrow34,900 or 33,150 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow15,100 or 13,500 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow1,040 or 950 by 02/01/2023
  Up arrow12,400 or 11,000 by 02/15/2023
  Up arrow4,100 or 3,800 by 02/01/2023

Bulkowski's Ugly Pattern Performance Study

Do perfectly shaped chart patterns perform better or worse than ugly ones? In a test of two chart pattern types, the uglier patterns outperformed the well-shaped ones.

Ugly Pattern Performance: Detailed Results

I looked at double bottoms and double tops to determine whether ugly (uneven) tops or bottoms performed better than those with even peaks or valleys. Here's what I found.

Peak to peak price difference =>0-1%1-2%2-3%3-4%4-5%
Double tops15.5% (276)17.3% (320)19.3% (57)21.5% (21)29.9% (17)
Double bottoms31.5% (304)32.0% (378)33.6% (277)33.3% (232)42.8% (73)

Numbers in parentheses are samples used in the test and the percentages are the average move post breakout. Double bottoms have the most samples. When the valleys are within 0 to 1% in price from each other, the rise averages 31.5%. When the valleys are 4 to 5% apart in price, the rise averages 42.8%. Thus, the uglier the chart pattern, the better the performance.

Ugly Pattern Performance: Definitions

I measured the rise or fall from the breakout price to the ultimate high or low. A breakout occurs when price climbs above the highest high between the double bottoms, or below the lowest low between the double tops. The ultimate high is the highest high before price tumbles at least 20%. The ultimate low is the lowest low before price rises at least 20%. In the test, I used 1,275 stocks covering 7/1991 to 3/2006. Not all stocks covered the entire period and only qualifying double tops and bottoms were used. I found 2,239 double top or bottom patterns, but not all of them had usable data (the ultimate high or low wasn't found yet because price hadn't reversed).

-- Thomas Bulkowski

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My novels:  Remember Me book Bumper's Story book Head's Law book
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