Height Exit

How well do small chart patterns (1 to 7 bars long) reach a price target? This article shows the testing results, describing how often upward breakouts occur, success at reaching a price target, and average profit per trade. Read for more details.

Height Exit: Table Notes

In the following tables, the "% Up Breakout" column shows how often an upward breakout occurred, when available. I only tested for upward breakouts.

The "Hit 2x Target" column computes a target exit price based on twice the height of the chart pattern added to the top of it. A limit order to sell is assumed to be placed at that price for an automatic exit.

The "Average Profit/Trade" column shows the average trading profit (if any) per trade.

The "Inbound Trend Direction" column checks to see if the short-term (5 days) price trend direction (up or down) leading to the start of the pattern influences performance.

"Price Bars" are the number of price bars in the pattern. The idea behind this column is to test if longer or shorter price bar patterns outperformed. The analysis discussed in this article helps answer the question.

"Beat Benchmark" column refers to a comparison with the benchmark results in the Benchmark table. The benchmark uses the same data, the same number of price bars, but not the identification guidelines of the small pattern to assess how a random selection would perform. It's an apples-to-apples comparison to gauge if the small pattern really provides a trading benefit.

Height Exit: Stocks

This is a table showing the performance of small chart patterns in hundreds of stocks, sorted by how often price reaches the target price ("Hit 2x Target" column).

Twice Height Exit Performance in Stocks
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars	Beat Benchmark?
Horn bottoms (weekly scale)	100%*	53%	$452.07	Up	3	Yes
Horn bottoms (weekly scale)	100%*	53%	$620.02	Down	3	Yes
One day reversal, bottom	92%	50%	$81.47	Down	3	Yes
Pipe bottom (weekly scale)	98%	50%	$402.11	Up	2	Yes
Pipe bottom (weekly scale)	98%	50%	$384.80	Down	2	Yes
One day reversal, top	11%	43%	$39.23	Up	3	Yes
Upside weekly reversals (weekly scale)	88%	43%	$248.34	Down	2	No
2-Tall	100%*	42%	$142.63	Up	2	Yes
2-Tall	100%*	42%	$214.49	Down	2	Yes
Closing price reversal, downtrend	82%	42%	$64.04	Down	1	Yes
2-Did	100%*	41%	$103.39	Up	2	Yes
2-Did	100%*	41%	$112.40	Down	2	Yes
Bullish fakey	100%*	41%	$110.88	Up	4	Yes
Bullish fakey	100%*	41%	$119.04	Down	4	Yes
Key reversal, downtrend	84%	41%	$93.25	Down	2	Yes
Key reversal bar, downtrend, v2	83%	41%	$135.16	Down	1	Yes
Pivot point reversal, downtrend	82%	41%	$90.19	Down	2	Yes
Wide ranging day upside reversal	86%	41%	$134.10	Down	1	Yes
2-Dance	54%	40%	$54.37	Up	2	Yes
2-Dance	54%	40%	$83.54	Down	2	Yes
Bearish fakey (with upward breakouts)	100%*	40%	$76.89	Up	4	No
Bearish fakey (with upward breakouts)	100%*	40%	$103.93	Down	4	Yes
Gap2H	85%	40%	$126.97	Up	3	Yes
Gap2H	85%	40%	$154.46	Down	3	Yes
Hook reversal, downtrend	72%	40%	$79.00	Down	2	Yes
3-Bar	85%	39%	$90.81	Up	3	Yes
3-Bar	85%	39%	$89.38	Down	3	Yes
Open-close reversal, downtrend	58%	39%	$80.90	Down	2	Yes
2-Close, bullish	71%	38%	$76.96	Up	3	Yes
2-Close, bullish	71%	38%	$83.09	Down	3	No
3L-R	74%	38%	$86.19	Up	4	No
3L-R	74%	38%	$106.33	Down	4	Yes
Closing price reversal, uptrend	20%	38%	$64.48	Up	1	Yes
Bullish double key reversal	65%	38%	$36.97	Up	3	No
Bullish double key reversal	65%	38%	$84.06	Down	3	Yes
Inside days	53%	38%	$62.43	Up	2	Yes
Inside days	53%	38%	$77.46	Down	2	Yes
Outside days	51%	38%	$66.29	Up	2	Yes
Outside days	51%	38%	$59.72	Down	2	No
3DC	55%	37%	$87.83	Up	3	Yes
3DC	55%	37%	$104.70	Down	3	Yes
Hook reversal, uptrend	33%	37%	$74.86	Up	2	Yes
Narrow range 4	56%	37%	$94.35	Up	4	Yes
Narrow range 4	56%	37%	$127.80	Down	4	Yes
Narrow range 7	59%	37%	$115.81	Up	7	No
Narrow range 7	59%	37%	$163.84	Down	7	Yes
Open-close reversal, uptrend	48%	37%	$84.54	Up	2	Yes
Turn-key, bullish	73%	37%	$58.32	Up	4	No
Turn-key, bullish	73%	37%	$70.79	Down	4	No
Two-step, bullish	79%	36%	$15.27	Up	5	No
Two-step, bullish	79%	36%	$64.58	Down	5	No
Shark-32	53%	36%	$66.90	Up	3	No
Shark-32	53%	36%	$89.60	Down	3	Yes
2-Close, bearish	35%	35%	$56.52	Up	3	No
2-Close, bearish	35%	35%	$92.77	Down	3	Yes
Bearish double key reversal	39%	35%	$33.71	Up	3	No
Bearish double key reversal	39%	35%	$56.48	Down	3	No
Pivot point reversal, uptrend	21%	35%	$87.93	Up	2	Yes
Inverted 3L-R	31%	34%	$74.81	Up	4	No
Inverted 3L-R	31%	34%	$91.06	Down	4	No
Key reversal, uptrend	19%	34%	$52.36	Up	2	Yes
Bearish key reversal bar, v2	22%	34%	$91.56	Up	1	Yes
Turn-key, bearish	29%	32%	$46.68	Up	4	No
Turn-key, bearish	29%	32%	$88.73	Down	4	No
Wide ranging day downside reversal	18%	32%	$91.83	Up	1	Yes
Inverted gap2H	23%	31%	$132.26	Up	3	Yes
Inverted gap2H	23%	31%	$164.42	Down	3	Yes
Two-step, bearish	26%	30%	$14.92	Up	5	No
Two-step, bearish	26%	30%	$166.15	Down	5	Yes
Downside weekly reversals (weekly scale)	19%	30%	$224.21	Up	2	Yes

Height Exit: Stock Benchmark

This is the benchmark performance using stocks. When I did the small patterns tests, I picked from 1 to 7 price bars and logged how those patterns performed. I would call the selection random, except I skipped several in a row to keep the sample counts reasonable. Entry was a penny above the highest price bar in the pattern. Exit was a stop loss a penny below the lowest low in the pattern. Target exit was twice the height of the pattern added to the top of the pattern. There were other conditions, such as a minimum stock price of $5. See Method for details. In other words, I used the same trading rules in the same stocks except the patterns chosen here did not have any identification guidelines other than the number of price bars involved.

Some patterns use weekly data (horns, pipes) and two patterns needed the entry to be delayed for a week.

Benchmark Performance in Stocks
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars
1 bar benchmark	51%	41%	$32.55	Up	1
1 bar benchmark	51%	41%	$62.36	Down	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	52%	49%	$29.08	Up	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	52%	49%	$51.85	Down	1
2 bar benchmark	52%	37%	$48.01	Up	2
2 bar benchmark	52%	37%	$68.70	Down	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	38%	$200.96	Up	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	38%	$253.78	Down	2
3 bar benchmark	53%	36%	$73.54	Up	3
3 bar benchmark	53%	36%	$83.91	Down	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	61%	38%	$232.18	Up	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	66%	38%	$259.81	Down	3
4 bar benchmark	54%	36%	$88.58	Up	4
4 bar benchmark	54%	36%	$100.27	Down	4
5 bar benchmark	55%	36%	$102.71	Up	5
5 bar benchmark	55%	36%	$131.16	Down	5
7 bar benchmark	57%	35%	$138.22	Up	7
7 bar benchmark	57%	35%	$145.03	Down	7

The "1 bar benchmark, delayed" line is for the one-day reversal pattern. That is a one-bar pattern but I also included the adjacent bars (one on each side) for pattern recognition. For testing, the entry and exit prices were based on the middle bar only (the ODR), but entry was delayed a day to make it a fair comparison. To be clear, we have the ODR (bottom, but it also applies to tops), a higher low the next day and then we look for entry starting the following day.

Height Exit: ETFs

The following table shows the performance of small patterns in exchange traded funds (ETFs), sorted by the "Hit 2x Target" column.

Twice Height Exit Performance in ETFs
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars	Beat Benchmark?
One day reversal, bottom	92%	59%	$74.00	Down	3	Yes
One day reversal, top	14%	49%	$29.87	Up	3	No
Closing price reversal, downtrend	77%	48%	$45.20	Down	1	No
Pipe bottom (weekly scale)	98%	46%	$377.47	Up	2	Yes
Pipe bottom (weekly scale)	98%	46%	$167.01	Down	2	No
Hook reversal, downtrend	67%	44%	$54.56	Down	2	Yes
Key reversal, downtrend	81%	44%	$65.55	Down	2	Yes
Upside weekly reversals (weekly scale)	88%	44%	$149.39	Down	2	No
2-Dance	57%	43%	$49.24	Up	2	Yes
2-Dance	57%	43%	$76.71	Down	2	Yes
Closing price reversal, uptrend	26%	43%	$46.01	Up	1	Yes
Open-close reversal, downtrend	53%	43%	$67.27	Down	2	Yes
Bullish double key reversal	65%	42%	$77.37	Up	3	Yes
Bullish double key reversal	65%	42%	$77.74	Down	3	Yes
Bearish fakey (with upward breakouts)	100%*	42%	$58.47	Up	4	No
Bearish fakey (with upward breakouts)	100%*	42%	$114.57	Down	4	Yes
Open-close reversal, uptrend	56%	42%	$58.42	Up	2	Yes
Pivot point reversal, downtrend	79%	42%	$61.21	Down	2	Yes
Wide ranging day upside reversal	79%	42%	$83.38	Down	1	Yes
3-Bar	83%	41%	$68.16	Up	3	No
3-Bar	83%	41%	$62.97	Down	3	No
Bullish fakey	100%*	41%	$132.26	Up	4	Yes
Bullish fakey	100%*	41%	$72.38	Down	4	No
Gap2H	83%	41%	$74.49	Up	3	Yes
Gap2H	83%	41%	$114.06	Down	3	Yes
Hook reversal, uptrend	37%	41%	$47.24	Up	2	No
Inside days	54%	41%	$28.88	Up	2	No
Inside days	54%	41%	$41.90	Down	2	No
Outside days	50%	41%	$34.62	Up	2	No
Outside days	50%	41%	$50.47	Down	2	No
Two-step, bullish**	82%	40%	$153.63	Up	5	Yes
Two-step, bullish**	82%	40%	$158.36	Down	5	Yes
3L-R	76%	40%	$80.68	Up	4	No
3L-R	76%	40%	$44.50	Down	4	No
3DC	60%	39%	$74.51	Up	3	Yes
3DC	60%	39%	$62.67	Down	3	No
2-Tall	100%*	39%	$179.25	Up	2	Yes
2-Tall	100%*	39%	($42.03)	Down	2	No
Narrow range 4	61%	39%	$87.91	Up	4	Yes
Narrow range 4	61%	39%	$100.88	Down	4	Yes
Narrow range 7	64%	39%	$133.38	Up	7	Yes
Narrow range 7	64%	39%	$126.10	Down	7	No
Shark-32	54%	39%	$29.16	Up	3	No
Shark-32	54%	39%	$88.20	Down	3	Yes
2-Close, bullish	70%	38%	$36.16	Up	3	No
2-Close, bullish	70%	38%	$41.52	Down	3	No
Bearish double key reversal	40%	38%	$10.50	Up	3	No
Bearish double key reversal	40%	38%	$20.37	Down	3	No
Key reversal bar, downtrend, v2	78%	38%	$49.57	Down	1	Yes
Pivot point reversal, uptrend	26%	38%	$59.94	Up	2	Yes
2-Did	100%*	37%	$4.57	Up	2	No
2-Did	100%*	37%	$(28.90)	Down	2	No
Inverted gap2H	25%	37%	$187.03	Up	3	Yes
Inverted gap2H	25%	37%	$119.12	Down	3	Yes
Key reversal, uptrend	25%	37%	$29.98	Up	2	No
2-Close, bearish	36%	36%	$48.23	Up	3	No
2-Close, bearish	36%	36%	$52.20	Down	3	No
Inverted 3L-R	31%	36%	$67.53	Up	4	No
Inverted 3L-R	31%	36%	$47.38	Down	4	No
Turn-key, bullish	78%	36%	$22.68	Up	4	No
Turn-key, bullish	78%	36%	$51.51	Down	4	No
Bearish key reversal bar, v2	29%	36%	$4.64	Up	1	No
Wide ranging day downside reversal	21%	36%	$42.91	Up	1	Yes
Downside weekly reversals (weekly scale)	18%	34%	$224.69	Up	2	Yes
Turn-key, bearish	32%	29%	($2.34)	Up	4	No
Turn-key, bearish	32%	29%	$55.81	Down	4	No
Two-step, bearish**	36%	27%	$22.40	Up	5	No
Two-step, bearish**	36%	27%	$90.13	Down	5	No

Height Exit: ETFs Benchmark

This is the benchmark performance in exchange traded funds (ETFs). Selection and trading is the same as described for the stock benchmark except I picked from ETFs.

Benchmark Performance in Exchange Traded Funds
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars
1 bar benchmark	53%	49%	$38.39	Up	1
1 bar benchmark	53%	49%	$49.24	Down	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	54%	56%	$31.17	Up	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	54%	56%	$29.98	Down	1
2 bar benchmark	55%	41%	$48.84	Up	2
2 bar benchmark	55%	41%	$51.31	Down	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	60%	39%	$174.53	Up	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	60%	39%	$180.35	Down	2
3 bar benchmark	55%	39%	$68.94	Up	3
3 bar benchmark	55%	39%	$68.34	Down	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	62%	40%	$213.50	Up	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	62%	40%	$213.94	Down	3
4 bar benchmark	56%	38%	$85.22	Up	4
4 bar benchmark	56%	38%	$83.76	Down	4
5 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$99.79	Up	5
5 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$90.88	Down	5
7 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$110.80	Up	7
7 bar benchmark	58%	38%	$145.44	Down	7

Height Exit: Cryptocurrency

This table lists how small patterns performed in cryptocurrencies. Not all patterns had enough trades to be worth reporting. I sorted the table by the "Hit 2x Target" column.

Twice Height Exit Performance in Cryptocurrency
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars	Beat Benchmark?
2-Tall	100%*	64%	$779.98	Up	2	Yes
2-Tall**	100%*	64%	$192.51	Down	2	Yes
2-Did**	100%*	60%	$596.54	Up	2	Yes
2-Did**	100%*	60%	$351.89	Down	2	Yes
Bullish double key reversal	75%	55%	$462.23	Up	3	Yes
Bullish double key reversal	75%	55%	$238.49	Down	3	Yes
Bullish fakey	100%*	53%	$392.26	Up	4	Yes
Bullish fakey	100%*	53%	$334.91	Down	4	Yes
Wide ranging day upside reversal	89%	51%	$348.19	Down	1	Yes
Bearish fakey (with upward breakouts)	100%*	48%	$369.78	Up	4	Yes
Bearish fakey (with upward breakouts)	100%*	48%	$295.53	Down	4	Yes
Closing price reversal, uptrend	15%	45%	$177.69	Up	1	Yes
3-Bar	87%	44%	$256.66	Up	3	Yes
3-Bar	87%	44%	$180.87	Down	3	No
2-Dance	51%	44%	$136.43	Up	2	No
2-Dance	51%	44%	$224.85	Down	2	Yes
3L-R	70%	44%	$282.20	Up	4	No
3L-R	70%	44%	$151.02	Down	4	No
Closing price reversal, downtrend	84%	44%	$154.44	Down	1	Yes
2-Close, bullish	74%	43%	$173.84	Up	3	No
2-Close, bullish	74%	43%	$170.38	Down	3	No
Pivot point reversal, downtrend	82%	43%	$178.34	Down	2	Yes
3DC	49%	42%	$199.98	Up	3	No
3DC	49%	42%	$105.73	Down	3	No
Inside days	49%	42%	$156.42	Up	2	No
Inside days	49%	42%	$82.96	Down	2	No
Key reversal, uptrend	15%	42%	$116.06	Up	2	No
Narrow range 4	50%	42%	$249.56	Up	4	No
Narrow range 4	50%	42%	$88.00	Down	4	No
Narrow range 7	51%	42%	$252.04	Up	7	No
Narrow range 7	51%	42%	$119.82	Down	7	No
Outside days	50%	42%	$156.46	Up	2	No
Outside days	50%	42%	$78.15	Down	2	No
2-Close, bearish	31%	41%	$296.56	Up	3	Yes
2-Close, bearish	31%	41%	$27.75	Down	3	No
Pivot point reversal, uptrend	17%	41%	$242.88	Up	2	Yes
Turn-key, bullish	70%	41%	$248.20	Up	4	No
Turn-key, bullish	70%	41%	($134.72)	Down	4	No
Shark-32	46%	40%	$79.76	Up	3	No
Shark-32	46%	40%	$121.40	Down	3	No
Hook reversal, downtrend	64%	39%	($24.75)	Down	2	No
Hook reversal, uptrend	31%	39%	$78.72	Up	2	No
Inverted 3L-R	31%	37%	$234.00	Up	4	No
Inverted 3L-R	31%	37%	$31.81	Down	4	No
Key reversal, downtrend	84%	37%	$65.91	Down	2	No

Height Exit: Cryptocurrency Benchmark

This is the benchmark performance in cryptocurrency. Selection and trading is the same as described for the stock benchmark except I picked from cryptocurrencies.

Benchmark Performance in Cryptocurrency
Pattern	% Up Breakout	Hit 2x Target	Average Profit/Trade	Inbound Trend Direction	Price Bars
1 bar benchmark	51%	45%	$146.81	Up	1
1 bar benchmark	51%	45%	$122.37	Down	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	50%	54%	$152.49	Up	1
1 bar benchmark, delayed	50%	54%	$112.00	Down	1
2 bar benchmark	51%	43%	$214.65	Up	2
2 bar benchmark	51%	43%	$147.18	Down	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	55%	$648.76	Up	2
2 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	55%	$537.68	Down	2
3 bar benchmark	49%	43%	$224.62	Up	3
3 bar benchmark	49%	43%	$209.61	Down	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	53%	$630.42	Up	3
3 bar benchmark, using weekly data	58%	53%	$765.20	Down	3
4 bar benchmark	48%	45%	$358.38	Up	4
4 bar benchmark	48%	45%	$250.23	Down	4
7 bar benchmark	54%	45%	$320.01	Up	7
7 bar benchmark	54%	45%	$253.40	Down	7

For cryptocurrency, the ODR top and bottom patterns did not have enough samples (trades) to report, so the delayed line in the table wasn't used.

Bulkowski on Height Exit Rank