As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
|
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
|
As of 10/07/2024
Indus: 41,954 -398.51 -0.9%
Trans: 15,783 -31.37 -0.2%
Utils: 1,027 -24.05 -2.3%
Nasdaq: 17,924 -213.95 -1.2%
S&P 500: 5,696 -55.13 -1.0%
|
YTD
+11.3%
-0.7%
+16.5%
+19.4%
+19.4%
| |
43,500 or 41,600 by 10/15/2024
16,800 or 15,700 by 10/15/2024
1,125 or 1,025 by 10/15/2024
19,000 or 17,600 by 10/15/2024
5,900 or 5,600 by 10/15/2024
| ||
My book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition, pictured on the left, has the measure rule statistics for most of the 63 chart and event patterns covered by the book.
If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.
$ $ $
Statistics updated on 9/14/2020.
Use the measure rule to predict a price target. The rule varies from chart pattern to pattern as the below table shows. Usually the measure rule is the height added to (upward breakouts) or subtracted from (downward breakouts) the breakout price.
Unfortunately, that formula doesn't work well. Instead, multiply the height by the "percentage meeting price target," which I show in the below table as percentages. The result should be a closer and more accurate price target.
For example, if a broadening top has a high price of 25 and a low of 20 with a breakout of 22 (after price closes above 25 (breaking out upward), it opens the next day at 22, which I now use as the breakout price), an upward breakout target in a bull market would be B + ((H - L) * 66%) = 22 + ((25 - 20) * 66%) = $25.30. A downward breakout in a bull market would use the formula B - ((H - L) * 42%) = 22 - ((25 - 20) * 42%) = $19.90.
The formula may look complex but it's not. Anyone with a doctorate in mathematics can figure it out in a few hours.
-- Thomas Bulkowski
Notes:
Bull Market Chart Pattern | The Measure Rule |
Big M, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 55%) |
Big W, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 74%) |
Broadening Bottoms, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 41%) |
Broadening Bottoms, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 65%) |
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 40%) |
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Ascending, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 67%) |
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 51%) |
Broadening Formations, Right-Angled and Descending, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 65%) |
Broadening Tops, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 42%) |
Broadening Tops, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 66%) |
Broadening Wedges, Ascending, down breakout | Lowest low or B - ((H - L) * 71%) |
Broadening Wedges, Ascending, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 61%) |
Broadening Wedges, Descending, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 32%) |
Broadening Wedges, Descending, up breakout | Highest high or B + ((H - L) * 83%) |
Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms, up breakout | Highest high or B + ((H - L) * 76%) |
Bump-and-run Reversal Tops, down breakout | B - ((Lead-in height) * 44%) |
Cup-with-Handle, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 61%) |
Cup-with-Handle, Inverted, down breakout | B - ((Handle height) * 62%) |
Diamond Bottoms, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 55%) |
Diamond Bottoms, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 73%) |
Diamond Tops, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 63%) |
Diamond Tops, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 65%) |
Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 73%) |
Double Bottoms, Adam & Eve, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 69%) |
Double Bottoms, Eve & Adam, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 72%) |
Double Bottoms, Eve & Eve, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 65%) |
Double Tops, Adam & Adam, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 64%) |
Double Tops, Adam & Eve, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 54%) |
Double Tops, Eve & Adam, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 55%) |
Double Tops, Eve & Eve, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 43%) |
Flags, down breakout | Flag high - ((Flagpole height) * 46%) |
Flags, up breakout | Flag low + ((Flagpole height) * 46%) |
Flags, High and Tight, up breakout | B + ((Half the rise leading to flag top) * 82%) |
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, up breakout | B + ((NL - HL) * 71%) |
Head-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex, up breakout | B + ((NL - HL) * 71%) |
Head-and-Shoulders Tops, down breakout | B - ((HH - NL) * 51%) |
Head-and-Shoulders Tops, Complex, down breakout | B - ((HH - NL) * 47%) |
Horn Bottoms, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 74%) |
Horn Tops, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 54%) |
Islands Reversals, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 62%) |
Islands Reversals, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 82%) |
Measured Move Down (second leg target) | CPH - ((H - CPL) * 43%) |
Measured Move Up (second leg target) | CPL + ((CPH - L) * 60%) |
Pennants, down breakout | Pennant high - ((Flagpole height) * 32%) |
Pennants, up breakout | Pennant low + ((Flagpole height) * 35%) |
Pipe Bottom, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 77%) |
Pipe Tops, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 54%) |
Rectangles Bottoms, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 55%) |
Rectangles Bottoms, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 79%) |
Rectangles Tops, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 54%) |
Rectangles Tops, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 78%) |
Roof, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 63%) |
Roof, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 62%) |
Roof, inverted, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 47%) |
Roof, inverted, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 65%) |
Rounding Bottoms, up breakout | RL + ((RL - L) * 65%) |
Rounding Tops, down breakout | RL - ((H - RL) * 14%) |
Rounding Tops, up breakout | H + ((H - RL) * 58%) |
Scallops, Ascending, down breakout | L - ((RL - L) * 29%) |
Scallops, Ascending, up breakout | RL + ((RL - L) * 62%) |
Scallops, Ascending and Inverted, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 64%) |
Scallops, Descending, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 34%) |
Scallops, Descending, up breakout | RL + ((H - L) * 52%) |
Scallops, Inverted and Descending, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 29%) |
Scallops, Inverted and Descending, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 62%) |
Three Falling Peaks, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 23%) |
Three Rising Valleys, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 57%) |
Triangles, Ascending, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 44%) |
Triangles, Ascending, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 70%) |
Triangles, Descending, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 50%) |
Triangles, Descending, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 64%) |
Triangles, Symmetrical, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 36%) |
Triangles, Symmetrical, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 58%) |
Triple Bottoms, up breakout | H + ((H - L) * 74%) |
Triple Tops, down breakout | L - ((H - L) * 49%) |
V bottom, up breakout | L + (H - L) * 52%) |
V bottom, extended, up breakout | L + (H - L) * 51%) |
V top, down breakout | H - (H - L) * 37%) |
V top, extended, down breakout | H - (H - L) * 49%) |
Wedges, Falling, down breakout | B - ((H - L) * 29%) |
Wedges, Falling, up breakout | Highest high or B + ((H - L) * 62%) |
Wedges, Rising, down breakout | Lowest low or B - ((H - L) * 32%) |
Wedges, Rising, up breakout | B + ((H - L) * 63%) |
Bull Market Chart Pattern | The Measure Rule |
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