As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
|
 44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/2025 16,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 |
As of 12/20/2024
Indus: 42,840 +498.02 +1.2%
Trans: 15,892 +32.54 +0.2%
Utils: 986 +14.76 +1.5%
Nasdaq: 19,573 +199.83 +1.0%
S&P 500: 5,931 +63.77 +1.1%
|
YTD
+13.7%
0.0%
+11.9%
+30.4%
+24.3%
| |
|
44,200 or 41,750 by 01/01/202516,100 or 17,700 by 01/01/20251,050 or 975 by 01/01/202520,500 or 19,300 by 01/01/20256,100 or 5,775 by 01/01/2025 | ||
Updated with new statistics 9/17/2020.
For more information on individual patterns described below, read
Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Second Edition
If you click on the above link and then buy the book (or anything) while at Amazon.com, the referral will help support this site. Thanks.
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This is a study of studies for chart patterns in bull markets only. For example, do reversals work better than continuations? If the first study (broadening bottoms) performed better as reversals, then the score is 1. If the next study (Adam & Adam double bottoms) showed the chart pattern performing better as reversals, the score rises to 2, and so on. The final percentage shows the ratio between the scores which showed improvement and the total number of studies polled. Not all chart patterns were studied.
Do reversals work better than continuations? The results are mixed with 55% of reversals performing better after an upward breakout. That means price trends down and then reverses. Downward breakouts from chart patterns perform better if price is already trending down.
The following are for bull markets only.
Do throwbacks hurt performance? Yes: 97% of the time chart patterns with upward breakouts perform better post breakout without a throwback. Avoid overhead resistance when trading. See also Throwbacks.
Yes: 97% (throwbacks hurt performance)No: 13%
Do pullbacks hurt performance? Yes: 91% of chart pattern types with downward breakouts perform better if a pullback does NOT occur. Look for underlying support before taking a position in a stock. See also Pullbacks.
Yes: 91% (pullbacks hurt performance)No: 9%
Do breakout day gaps help performance? In 2 out of 3 trades (or better), gaps that occur on the day of breakout help performance regardless of the breakout direction.
- Upward breakouts
Gap: 68% (gaps help performance)No gap: 32%- Downward breakouts
Gap: 85%No gap: 15%
Do tall patterns perform best? Yes. Both breakout directions make a strong showing. Always trade tall patterns and ignore short ones. What is meant by short and tall? Take the height of the chart pattern and divide it by the breakout price then look up the chart pattern in my book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. Size statistics appear in Table x.6. Compare your result with the 'median height as a percentage of the breakout price.' Patterns with numbers higher than the median are tall.
- Upward breakouts
Tall: 89% (tall patterns outperform)Short: 11%- Downward breakouts
Tall: 100%Short: 0%
Do wide patterns perform best? Yes, in bull markets. What is meant by wide and narrow? Compute the length of your chart pattern from the start of the pattern to the end (usually the calendar days between the first and last peaks or valleys, not the breakout). Double tops, for example, have a width measured from peak to peak (the highest high in each peak). Then find the size table in the book, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. Size statistics appear in Table x.6. Compare your result with the 'median width.' Patterns with numbers lower than the median are narrow.
- Upward breakouts
Narrow: 9%Wide: 91% (wide patterns outperform)- Downward breakouts
Narrow: 15%Wide: 85%
Does a rising volume trend within the chart pattern result in the best performance? The results are close and mixed. Upward breakouts perform better when volume trends upward from the start of the chart pattern to the day before the breakout. Downward breakouts do better with a falling volume trend. See also Volume Trend.
- Upward breakouts
Rising: 62% (patterns with rising volume outperform)Falling: 38%- Downward breakouts
Rising: 44%Falling: 56% (patterns with falling volume outperform)
Does heavy breakout day volume mean better performance?
For both breakout directions, heavy breakout volume can mean better performance after the breakout. Heavy breakout day volume means above the 30-day volume average (one month of calendar days, not trading days) up to but not including the breakout day. See also Breakout Day Volume.
- Upward breakouts
Heavy: 79% (above average breakout volume helps)Light: 21%- Downward breakouts
Heavy: 67%Light: 33%
Do single busted patterns outperform?
Single busted patterns outperform all other types (double busted, triple+ busted (busts more than twice), and non-busted).
- Upward breakouts
Single busts: 97% (price breaks out upward and then drops)- Downward breakouts
Single busts: 94% (price breaks out downward and then rises)
How many patterns lead to price trending?
A price trend is when price moves more than 20% in the breakout direction. How many chart patterns lead to such a long trend?
- Upward breakouts
Occurrence: 55% (over half of patterns will see price rise more than 20%)- Downward breakouts
Occurrence: 28% (Just over a quarter of chart patterns with downward breakouts will see price drop more than 20%)
See also:
-- Thomas Bulkowski
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